Re Tesla: I can't resist.
I believe that Tesla will be bankrupt by 2020 and sold off or out of business. There are a lot of others out there that think so as well and there is nothing in the latest financial statement which would change that outlook.
Some examples:
On January 19, Tesla’s general counsel Todd Maron participated in a panel discussion at the Federal Trade Commission on reforming the laws governing state automotive markets and casually made a jaw-dropping claim: “we make money from one thing: car sales and car sales alone.” The truth is exactly the opposite. The company has always lost money on every vehicle sold, making its money by participating in government programs, most significantly by selling California Zero Emissions Vehicle credits. And declining oil prices have made the case for electric cars less connected to economic reality than ever.
Last year I laid out the case that Tesla is more in the business of harvesting prodigious subsidies from governments than in selling vehicles in an article at National Review. ...
Tesla owes its survival to subsidies from taxpayers, who are usually less well-heeled than its plutocratic customers; this Silicon Valley start-up has gotten $4.9 billion in state and federal support over the past decade, according to a May 30 Los Angeles Times report.” ....
https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/01/tesla-tells-tales-at-the-ftcDon't mistake what it says above. Tesla survives on taxpayer subsidies which are provided by folks whom the vast majority of can't afford to buy one of their cars. It is a case of the regular guy getting screwed so some rich puke can run around in a ev sports car. There is nothing right about that situation.
Re the 4th quarter results ballyhooed in the posts above. Telsa lost $1.29/share in the 4th qtr. And it lost money in every quarter in 2015 and each quarter was worse than the one before. It has lost billions so far and that is with the $4.9 billion in subsidies it has received.
...Uncertainty about Tesla's prospects revolves around some short-term concerns and a broader long-term threat from the old-line auto companies of Detroit, Germany and Japan.
In the short run, investors are watching for Musk to say how quickly Tesla can ramp up production of the new Model X SUV, which launched in September.
In January, Tesla said it delivered a total of 17,400 vehicles in the fourth quarter, just above the low end of its forecast. Of those, only 208 were Model X vehicles.
Analysts also are questioning whether Tesla's long-promised moderately priced car, the Model 3, will be delayed beyond its current projected 2017 launch date.
Questions about the Model 3 are more pointed now that General Motors Co (GM.N) has confirmed it expects its $35,000 Chevy Bolt electric car to launch at the end of this year.
German competitors also are speeding up plans to offer luxury electric cars. Established automakers were slow to respond to Tesla's technological lead in offering customers new features via over-the-air software upgrades, for example, but others are now investing to catch up.
Tesla now faces "sleepy (auto) giants waking up," according to analysts Adam Hull and Paul Kratz from German bank Berenberg, who initiated coverage of Tesla with a "sell" rating.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-preview-idUSKCN0VH27OTesla has been playing in the luxury car market for some time now and has been unable to make any money at all. It has lost a lot. But that is competing with Porsche, BMW and the like in the +$100K market. This market is not a significant factor in the auto business as a whole and is totally irrelevant in regards to dealing with climate change. We don't need any stinking luxury cars period whether they are ev or ice. F**K the rich guys toys. Not to mention that BMW and Porsche will enter the ev market to compete with them and this will hurt Tesla a lot as Tesla has a history of quality problems which they do not have.
But now Musk wants to play with the big boys in the regular car market. But all the factors weigh against him there. He will not beat them to the market as they already have lower cost ev's and will have a host of models and options long before Tesla hits the market. And they are configured to actually be able to pretty much break even or even make a profit on them due to their vastly superior efficiency in manufacturing and purchasing of materials. Not to mention their superior ability to put the cars in front of the consumer through their dealer networks.
All of the big car companies will be offering significant numbers of ev models in the near term and Tesla will no longer be able to make these crazy claims that they are running at a loss in the luxury market in order to break into the low end markets. Since it is unlikely that they can sell their model 3 for a profit the writing is pretty much on the wall. They are not likely to survive long term.
...Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a longtime proponent of buying Tesla shares, doesn't believe Tesla's Model 3 will hit the streets until late 2018—at least a year after Musk has promised it would appear. [insert by me-Tesla has always been late]
To make matters worse for cash-strapped Tesla enthusiasts, the first cars off the production line probably won't be the sticker-price base model. Tesla likes to launch new products with a feature-rich Signature Series, which in the case of the Model X would cost about 75 percent more than the base model. For the Model 3, Jonas anticipates an initial average price of at least $60,000 before tax incentives.
Here's where the road to a $25,000 Tesla gets a little twisted. The U.S. federal tax incentive for electric cars won't be around forever. It is designed to help ease carmakers into the electric market. The credit is applied to the first 200,000 electric sales for each new manufacturer; then the value of the incentive slowly fades to zero over about a year and a half.
Tesla is on track to reach its 200,000th sale around the middle of 2018. If Model 3 deliveries don't start until the end of 2018, and a higher-priced Signature Series soaks up the incentives for 2019, then by the time a "mass-market" buyer gets a shot at a lower-priced Model 3, the incentives could be gone. In that case, a $35,000 Tesla would just be a $35,000 Tesla. In the meantime, however, Chevy has plans to start selling its 200-mile-range Bolt for $30,000 by the end of 2016, which would mean beating Tesla to its goal of an affordable long-range electric car by a significant margin....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/will-the-tesla-model-3-really-sell-for-25-000Tesla is a great stock market play at times and if one is nimbal. But they are far from a sound company in financial terms and their long term prospects are not bright.