Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[Sigmetnow]

Insights into EV ownership from Norway
"Plug-in owners love their vehicles. Less than 1% of EV owners, and about 2% of PHEV owners, said they will not buy electric again (after 2025, those folks might be out of luck)."
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/insights-into-ev-ownership-from-norway/

[GeoffBeacon]

I posted this on Carbon Brief a week or so ago. I hope there is something wrong with it. (e.g. Is it out of date?)

WILL MAKING ELECTRIC CARS BUST THE CARBON BUDGET?

Carbon Brief wrote Analysis: Only five years left before 1.5C carbon budget is blown

This estimated the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C as 205 billion tonnes CO2 (or is it CO2e?). That's just less than 28 tonnes for each of the 7.4 billion people in the world.

Is this correct "However, a report by Climate Central, Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013, gives carbon emissions from the manufacture of an electric car as 12.3 tonnes CO2e. Two new electric cars to be bought before 2050. That’s embodied carbon equal to 25 tonnes CO2e. (Note: the embodied carbon in s gasoline car is given as 7.4 tonnes CO2e.)" - (The carbon cost of achieving low carbon lifestyles )

Will the embodied carbon of electric cars reduce soon?

With 28 tonnes to go, 25 tonnes of CO2 on the embodied carbon in 2 electric cars doesn't seem hopeful to me.

[JimD]

Well.....I guess we can find a way to spin it that we are making progress. Once again the answer is not electric cars...it is no cars.

So gasoline consumption is at an all time high.  Boy are we making progress.

Motor gasoline consumption is forecast to increase by 130,000 b/d (1.5 percent) to 9.29 million b/d in 2016, which would make it the highest annual average gasoline consumption on record, beating the previous record set in 2007 by 0.1 percent. The increase in gasoline consumption reflects a forecast 2.5 percent increase in highway travel (because of employment growth and lower retail gasoline prices) that is partially offset by increases in vehicle fleet fuel economy........

Some even suggested that U.S. gasoline demand had permanently peaked, as a result of more fuel efficient vehicles and increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). We can now say those predictions were premature..........

Electric car production is (so far) running down the same path that large scale renewable energy facilities has.  They are adding to capacity rather than replacing obsolete capacity.  This is primarily related to the endless growth dynamic and the never ending focus on raising everyones affluence.  Such approaches simply will not work.  They just let population grow and resource consumption continue to run wild.

Population reductions, degrowth, sustainable systems and standards of living...all that kind of stuff are what we need.


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Gasoline-Consumption-On-Target-For-A-Record-Year.html

[Sigmetnow]

Advancement in battery technology announced today:  A new 100kWh battery for Tesla Model S provides over 300 miles range (EPA rated) -- passing the psychological barrier against EVs for yet more people.  At $134,000, this option isn't for everyone, but Elon Musk stated that customers buying the P100D versions are paying for the development of the more affordable Model 3 and they will also help Tesla understand the new battery architecture.  (As an enticement/bonus, they will also own the quickest production car on the planet....)

Tesla claims ‘Quickest Production Car in the World’ title with new 100 kWh battery pack: 0-60 in 2.5s & 315 mile range
https://electrek.co/2016/08/23/tesla-100-kwh-battery-pack-quickest-car-ever/


Meanwhile, Uber and Tesla want to make ride-sharing so cheap and convenient that more people will give up private car ownership entirely:

Tesla plans a ‘shared autonomous fleet’ for owners to make money off their car

Musk confirmed that once Tesla achieves full autonomy and it is approved by regulators (2 to 3 years based on his previous statements), the automaker plans for Tesla owners to be able to loan their car to a ‘shared autonomous fleet’ and make money while they are not using it.
...
He also added that Tesla will operate its own fleet parallel to the Tesla owners shared fleet in cities “where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars”. It will ensure that people using the app will always be able to hail a ride.

https://electrek.co/2016/07/20/tesla-shared-fleet-autonomous-fleet-money-off-their-car/


Uber tests self-driving cars in Pittsburgh

"When there's no other dude in the car, the cost of taking an Uber anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle. So the magic there is, you basically bring the cost below the cost of ownership for everybody, and then car ownership goes away," Kalanick said at the Code Conference in 2014, shortly after Google unveiled its self-driving car prototype.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/05/19/uber-begins-testing-self-driving-cars-pittsburgh/84587848/

[Csnavywx]

I posted this on Carbon Brief a week or so ago. I hope there is something wrong with it. (e.g. Is it out of date?)

WILL MAKING ELECTRIC CARS BUST THE CARBON BUDGET?

Carbon Brief wrote Analysis: Only five years left before 1.5C carbon budget is blown

This estimated the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C as 205 billion tonnes CO2 (or is it CO2e?). That's just less than 28 tonnes for each of the 7.4 billion people in the world.

Is this correct "However, a report by Climate Central, Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013, gives carbon emissions from the manufacture of an electric car as 12.3 tonnes CO2e. Two new electric cars to be bought before 2050. That’s embodied carbon equal to 25 tonnes CO2e. (Note: the embodied carbon in s gasoline car is given as 7.4 tonnes CO2e.)" - (The carbon cost of achieving low carbon lifestyles )

Will the embodied carbon of electric cars reduce soon?

With 28 tonnes to go, 25 tonnes of CO2 on the embodied carbon in 2 electric cars doesn't seem hopeful to me.

It was likely pressure from island nations and poor, vulnerable countries that got the 1.5 language put into the Paris Accord. There was and is no realistic path to that temperature, so it was just an almost cynical gesture by the developed world. Almost the same statement can be said for 2C at this point.

[Sigmetnow]

Nissan Canada:  Nope.  Can't allow our EV to be too affordable.

Buyers turn to Tesla Model 3 after Nissan shuts down massive LEAF group buy effort with 3,700 people

Paiva said that Nissan Canada believes the LEAF’s price is already discounted enough with Quebec’s $8,000 CAD electric vehicle incentive, which is of course provided by public funds and a similar discount is available in Colorado, and they are not interested in discounting the vehicle further for the 3,700 people who signed up.

https://electrek.co/2016/08/24/nissan-shutdowns-leaf-group-buy-tesla-model-3/

[Sigmetnow]

BMW’s plug-in models surpassing sales expectations, especially in Europe

BMW is having a banner year. Sales for July, and for the first half of 2016, set new records. While that isn’t surprising – automakers around the world are logging record sales – the interesting bit is that sales of BMW’s electrified models are exceeding expectations, especially in Europe.

In Western Europe in July, 4% of all BMW sales were electrified vehicles, and that percentage was far higher in the continent’s EV hotspots.
...
“While we see growth across our range, the fact that the planned production for our electrified 7 Series, 3 Series and 2 Series Active Tourer models is already sold out this year demonstrates our strategy of rolling out electrification on all models is the right one,” said BMW Board Member Dr. Ian Robertson. “We will, of course, now respond to this high customer demand.”
...
According to BMW, the “greenhouse potential” of the 740e is approximately 30% lower than that of the legacy gas-powered 740i over the full lifecycle of the car, including CO2 emissions produced by everything from the extraction of raw materials through manufacturing, use and eventual recycling.

https://chargedevs.com/newswire/bmws-plug-in-models-surpassing-sales-expectations-especially-in-europe/

[Sigmetnow]

Simulation Suggests Self-Driving Vehicles Will Make 90% Of Urban Cars Redundant
http://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/23/simulation-suggests-self-driving-vehicles-will-make-90-urban-cars-redundant/

[ghoti]

Re the Leaf group buy being turned down: I was not pleased but it is important to note that Nissan has been knocking $4,000 CDN off the MRSP this year for cash purchases bring the Leaf price down to be comparable with a Prius C hybrid.

It is also extremely important to note the Nissan has not yet raised the CDN price of the Leaf even though the Canadian dollar has dropped over 30% relative to the US dollar since they set the Canadian price.

So no big surprise they aren't keen to sell for anything lower until they lower their production costs.

[Sigmetnow]

All-electric self-driving cars are hitting the streets of Singapore for nuTonomy’s robotaxi project

It’s an exciting time in the autonomous driving space. While companies are making announcements about upcoming systems available in 2019, like Mobileye and Delphi, and in 2021, like Ford, some are already having trial projects with customers in public streets, like Uber in Pittsburgh.

Today, nuTonomy announced the start of its own public self-driving car trial in the streets of Singapore, and EV enthusiasts will be happy to know that they are using all-electric vehicles.

nuTonomy, an MIT startup, outfitted Renault Zoe and Mitsubishi i-MiEV cars with its custom sensor suite to test out its autonomous driving software.

The trial is a lot similar to what Uber is doing Pittsburgh, meaning customers will be invited to use nuTonomy’s ride-hailing app to book a ride in the new cars at no-cost ride and like Uber, an engineer will be in the car to monitor the system and take over control if needed.

https://electrek.co/2016/08/25/all-electric-self-driving-cars-singapore-nutomnomy-robotaxi/

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla is #1 on Forbes Most Innovative companies list for the second year in a row.

Tesla's Innovations Are Transforming The Auto Industry

It’s this innovation premium that helped Tesla race to the top of our Forbes Most Innovative companies list in 2015 – and stay there. It maintains its #1 position for the 2016 ranking. Tesla’s next challenge is whether or not it can become profitable and deliver on its huge market value. And will Tesla ultimately be the catalyst behind transforming the auto industry from ICE vehicles to electric vehicles? Our analysis signals it can and likely will.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/innovatorsdna/2016/08/24/teslas-innovations-are-transforming-the-auto-industry/

[Sigmetnow]

Amsterdam birdhouses give free Wi-Fi -- when air quality has improved

Amsterdam is usually associated with tree-lined waterways, cyclists and fresh air.

But the Dutch capital actually has a surprising pollution problem. The city was given a D+ ranking for air quality by an environmental study last year, thanks in part to its failure to implement a low emissions zone for private vehicles, as other European cities have done.

Now one local designer has a plan to tackle the problem: Joris Lam has designed a series of tree houses that light up and emit free Wi-Fi when air pollution levels fall to a healthy level.

Tree Wi-Fi, as it's called, aims to incentivize people to make more environmentally friendly choices.

"I wanted to make something that measures air pollution locally and also makes the issue visible in an understandable, human-centric way," Lam said.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/01/technology/tree-wi-fi-amsterdam/index.html

[Sigmetnow]

EV, free to drive, as long as you pick up others going your way.

Danish startup, Spiri, to launch its carpooling service in 2017 using their own all-electric fleet with a unique twist

The Denmark based company is looking to build upon and combine the ideas of car sharing networks, like car2go, and ride-sharing services, like UberPool, all into one business. Essentially what the Danish company would be offering is its own fleet of all-electric cars for the public to use in one of two ways:

As a driver: driving is free as long as you were to pick up passengers going the same direction.

As a passenger: you would ride Spiri much like you would any other form of public transport with the added benefit of it being more convenient since it can potentially cover the last mile.

https://electrek.co/2016/08/26/danish-startup-spiri-to-launch-its-carpooling-service-in-2017-using-their-own-all-electric-fleet-with-a-unique-twist/

[Sigmetnow]

Orange EV now taking orders for its new T-Series electric terminal truck

Even without incentive programs, the total cost of ownership for Orange EV’s electric vehicles is often less than what many fleets spend to purchase and operate their diesel trucks,” according to Chief Commercial Officer Mike Saxton.  “The incentives help fleets invest in their initial vehicles, but it’s the per-truck savings of up to $60,000 annually that will drive fleet-wide adoption.”

https://chargedevs.com/newswire/orange-ev-now-taking-orders-for-its-new-t-series-electric-terminal-truck/

Don't miss the shockingly quiet video. 

[Sigmetnow]

Thai oil company partners with six automakers to develop EVs

Thailand’s state-controlled oil company PTT has signed contracts with local units of six automakers (BMW, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Porsche and Volvo) to cooperate in developing EVs, and to build a network of 20 charging stations.

Thailand is a regional auto industry production and export hub, and the sector accounts for 10 percent of GDP. The current military government’s policy is to promote the electric vehicle industry and strengthen the security of the country’s energy supply.

According to Reuters, Thailand already has 68,000 “electric vehicles” [it seems likely that they mean electrified vehicles, including hybrids]. Energy Minister Anantaporn Karnchanarat said the government hopes to boost that number to 1.2 million by 2036. The government currently offers tax incentives for makers of EV auto parts, including batteries and motors.

https://chargedevs.com/newswire/thai-oil-company-partners-with-six-automakers-to-develop-evs/

[Sigmetnow]

California is poised for the most massive deployment of electric vehicle chargers across the U.S.

Pacific Gas & Electric Co., the biggest utility company in California, recently submitted a proposal to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to install approximately 7,500 level 2, and 100 DC fast EV charging stations around the state, which would be, by far, the most massive roll-out of chargers in the United States.

Via the Scientific American, as soon as Monday, the CPUC could release a decision on the matter which would formally be voted for approval on September 29th. If given the green light, PG&E would construct over 7,000 chargers in its territory ranging from Northern California to the Central Valley. If passed, this would add to the, already existing, 5,000 chargers in the area, effectively making it the most concentrated area in the nation for charge points.

The locations that PG&E would mainly focus on would be workplaces and apartments. Ultimately, they are hoping that in doing so, it will increase the adoption of electric vehicles which will lead to the further decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. But despite receiving praise from various environmental organizations and related businesses, there are still quite a few concerns that have risen from it:

1- The first and foremost concern would be that the Pacific Gas & Electric Co. is wanting to have the ratepayers pay for the cost of the $160 million program
2- EV charging companies are weary that because the network is so gargantuan that it will block out competition
3- Consumers worry about the size and cost
4- And the uncertainty that the Utility Reform Network (TURN) has about whether or not it will even increase EV adoption substantially

https://electrek.co/2016/08/27/california-is-poised-for-the-most-massive-deployment-of-electric-vehicle-chargers-across-the-u-s/

[TerryM]

California is poised for the most massive deployment of electric vehicle chargers across the U.S.

Pacific Gas & Electric Co., the biggest utility company in California, recently submitted a proposal to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to install approximately 7,500 level 2, and 100 DC fast EV charging stations around the state, which would be, by far, the most massive roll-out of chargers in the United States.

Via the Scientific American, as soon as Monday, the CPUC could release a decision on the matter which would formally be voted for approval on September 29th. If given the green light, PG&E would construct over 7,000 chargers in its territory ranging from Northern California to the Central Valley. If passed, this would add to the, already existing, 5,000 chargers in the area, effectively making it the most concentrated area in the nation for charge points.

The locations that PG&E would mainly focus on would be workplaces and apartments. Ultimately, they are hoping that in doing so, it will increase the adoption of electric vehicles which will lead to the further decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. But despite receiving praise from various environmental organizations and related businesses, there are still quite a few concerns that have risen from it:

1- The first and foremost concern would be that the Pacific Gas & Electric Co. is wanting to have the ratepayers pay for the cost of the $160 million program
2- EV charging companies are weary that because the network is so gargantuan that it will block out competition
3- Consumers worry about the size and cost
4- And the uncertainty that the Utility Reform Network (TURN) has about whether or not it will even increase EV adoption substantially

https://electrek.co/2016/08/27/california-is-poised-for-the-most-massive-deployment-of-electric-vehicle-chargers-across-the-u-s/

A very similar proposal & arguments against is taking place here in Ontario.
Sorry, no links.
Terry

[RoxTheGeologist]

PG&E are in the middle of a land grab in California. They are really interested in dominating the market for generation of Carbon Credits for EV.

CARB will probably go for this, as they are in a headlong rush to push as many EV onto the roads as possible, despite the opposition of WSPA (Chevron lead lobby group). Renewable fuel groups should watch out, pretty soon PG&E will be the one lobbying hardest against renewable fuels. PG&E still source electricity from coal power sations to meet demand.

[Sigmetnow]

Never mind!   

Nikola Motor does a 180°, scraps plans for battery-powered truck, turns to hydrogen

You might remember Nikola Motor for unveiling renderings and estimated specs of the Nikola One, their first electric truck, earlier this year. Or maybe for when they claimed that they received over 7,000 pre-orders worth over $2.3 billion for the vehicle.

In our last report, we highlighted their weird claim that the vehicle will achieve “zero emissions” despite being powered by both a 320 kWh battery pack and a natural gas range extender, which undoubtedly produces emissions. Today, Nikola Motor explained how they can claim that: they dropped their entire powertrain technology for a new hydrogen fuel cell concept.

We are talking about a less than 2-year old company, which came out of stealth mode only a few months ago to announce a battery-powered truck with a natural gas range extender to be unveiled by the end of the year with grand plans for natural gas refueling stations around the US, and now they do a 180° in their powertrain and refueling strategy?

It’s not doing a lot to help their credibility.

https://electrek.co/2016/08/30/nikola-motor-one-hydrogen/

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla enters car insurance business as self-driving cars prepare to disrupt the industry

Self-driving cars will almost completely eliminate the occurrence of car accidents caused by humans, which represents about 90% of all car accidents in the U.S. according to NHTSA. Consequently, autonomous driving has the potential to save millions of lives and millions in repair costs around the globe every year. That’s great for almost everyone except the car insurance industry.

This upcoming disruption makes this news particularly interesting considering it’s coming from a leader in autonomous driving technology. Electrek has learned that Tesla is entering the car insurance business starting with new programs in Australia and Hong Kong.

The new program is called InsureMyTesla and it features custom insurance plans for the company’s vehicles underwritten by bigger insurers partnering with Tesla.

In Hong Kong, Tesla is partnering with AXA General Insurance and in Australia, the automaker released its new plan with QBE Insurance.

https://electrek.co/2016/08/30/tesla-enters-car-insurance-business-self-driving-cars-prepare-disrupt-industry/

[TerryM]

I owned a piece of an auto body shop for a short time.  That's another industry that would take a big hit.


Come to think of it an auto that always accelerated, braked, & even cornered in a sane manner, might cause a lot of repair/replace shops to fall by the wayside. An electric drive train would have many fewer parts to break, regenerative braking would save on pads and rotors, even tires would last far longer than now.


Is the whole auto repair segment going to go to wherever telephone operators went?


Terry

[Sigmetnow]

<snip>
Is the whole auto repair segment going to go to wherever telephone operators went?

Terry

Terry,
You are right.  Compared to ICE vehicles, EVs have so few parts to wear out or need service.  And as autonomous driving evolves, the number of accidents will increasingly decrease. 

Elon Musk has said about Tesla (versus the dealership model): "Our philosophy with respect to service is not to make a profit on service. I think it's terrible to make a profit on service.  And, unfortunately the way the auto dealer association is set up is that they make most of their money on service."
http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-on-teslas-auto-dealer-model-2014-3

[Sigmetnow]

Uber to launch an all-electric fleet pilot project, starting with 20 Nissan LEAFs in London

Uber and Nissan announced today that they launched what they are referring to as “a new, major electric vehicle (EV) project”. The project starts with the trial of an all-electric fleet of 20 Nissan LEAFs in London starting in September.

The project will be studied by the Energy Savings Trust (EST) in order to “look into the feasibility of running large numbers of electric private hire vehicles in the UK.”

Uber says that already 60 percent of Uber journeys in London are made in hybrid vehicles, but the company wants to take things one step further to tackle air pollution in London with all-electric vehicles.

https://electrek.co/2016/08/31/uber-all-electric-fleet-pilot-project-nissan-leafs-london/

[Sigmetnow]

From June:
Julian Cox makes an argument that fleet-enabled autonomous EVs (such as those planned by Elon Musk in his Master Plan Part Deux) will upend the auto industry because an EV's lack of expense for gasoline and comparatively tiny expense for parts and service means the EV owner could make many times more in income, as part of a fleet, than the car costs to buy.  So, you could pay to own an ICE car -- or, have an EV that pays you....

He compares the Tesla Model 3 versus a BMW 328i and a Toyota Corolla(!).

Oh, and the factories making those fully autonomous cars?  "...[Those] national factories can conceivably produce cars that simply drive off the line to their purchasers or cars that just route themselves cross country to wherever customers are hailing rides." 

Julian Cox: Tesla Model 3 & The Economics Of Autonomy — Why An Autonomous ICE Vehicle Is Relatively Pointless
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/06/28/tesla-model-3-economics-autonomy-autonomous-ice-vehicle-relatively-pointless/


Here's a very brief summary of Cox's talk, with a link to the video:
How the Tesla Model 3 could trigger the collapse of the traditional auto industry
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/how-the-tesla-model-3-could-trigger-the-collapse-of-the-auto-industry/

ICYMI, here's Musk's (Tesla's) Master Plan Part Deux:
https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

[Sigmetnow]

Mass adoption of electric vehicles is “much sooner than most people realize”

There are now over 1.2 million electric vehicles on the world’s roads, up from just 6,000 just seven years ago. This year alone there are predicted to be 850,000 new plug-in vehicles heading onto our streets.
...
IEA chief economist Laszlo Varro adds: “Electric cars are roughly where solar power was 10 years ago in terms of their impact on commodity markets. Today, solar is a multibillion-dollar business which has a significant impact.”

http://priceofoil.org/2016/08/31/mass-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-is-much-sooner-than-most-people-realize/

[Sigmetnow]

VW CEO denies plans for a giant electric vehicle battery factory

Back in May, we shared a report from German newspaper Handelsblatt, which has often produced reliable insider reports on the German auto industry, citing insider sources saying that Volkswagen was about to present to its board of directors a plan to build a ‘multi-billion euro battery factory’.

In a new interview with the same newspaper this week, VW CEO Matthias Müller denies plans for the giant electric vehicle battery factory.

Müller told Handelsblatt that while Volkswagen is investigating the entire battery production process chain as part of its plan to build 2 to 3 million all-electric cars a year and unveil 30 new models by 2025, but that building its own factory would be “nonsense”.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/01/vw-ceo-denies-plan-giant-electric-vehicle-battery-facotry/

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla is preparing to unbundle Supercharging from the price of the car, allowing the purchase of supercharging "credits" and potentially opening the network to other automakers.

Tesla to introduce new ‘Supercharger Credit’ system to reduce entry price of Model S & X
https://electrek.co/2016/09/02/tesla-supercharger-credit-system-reduce-entry-price-model-s-x/

[Sigmetnow]

Crowd-funded solar car has more than met its funding goal.

All-electric and solar-powered car successfully crowdfunded, Sono Motors aims for deliveries in 2018

After launching their campaign for the innovative and very reasonably priced Sion solarcar at the end of July, Sono Motors, based in Munich, has three days remaining in its campaign to garner final support from backers on Indiegogo after recently reaching their goal of €150,000.

For those unfamiliar with the crowd-funded campaign, Sono Motors, a German startup founded by Laurin Hahn, launched its Indiegogo “solarcar for everyone” project on July 31st setting their funding goal for €150,000 ($167,370).

Recently, they met their goal and have generated a surplus of €17,785 ($19,844) for a total of €167,785 ($187,214) accumulated overall. And with three days to go, it will be interesting to see how much more funding the company can receive.

The rewards and perks that can be earned from backing the project, depending on how much you put into it, will get you a test drive appointment, a full day test drive, or discounts on the final product once it comes to market.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/02/sono-motors-sion-solarcar-crowdfunded/

[Sigmetnow]

Norway:  Tesla opens its first 20-stall Supercharger at now the world’s largest fast-charging station

We have been talking about it for a while now. We first reported 2 months ago that Tesla was about to open its two biggest Supercharger stations yet – two 20-stall stations. One in Fremont, California, and one in Nebbenes, Norway.

Now the one in Norway finally opened this week making it the largest Supercharger station in operation in the world and likely the largest DC fast-charging station too.

Nebbenes is located just a few miles north of Oslo on a popular route in Norway.

While each charger is equipped with Tesla’s latest capacity of 145 kW, the site is limited to an impressive total output of 2,000 kW, meaning that if all the stalls are in use at the same time, they would be limited to 100 kW each, which isn’t bad at all.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/02/tesla-20-stall-supercharger-world-largest-fast-charging-station/

[Sigmetnow]

Article makes a case for long-range BEVs (pure Battery Electric Vehicles) being a completely different market than short-range BEVs, and argues that established ICE car companies are simply unable to switch to the new, improved long-range BEV technology for at least 10, and up to 20 years -- even if they wish to do it sooner, and despite a strong demand for the new vehicles. 

"Starting with the Roadster, Tesla sold the first long-range (over 200 mile) BEV to the public in 2008, eight years ago!  ...  The reason why gas car makers can’t respond is that the attempt exposes themselves to fiscal jeopardy."

GM, Ford, MB, Toyota, and the other incumbents have hundreds of billions of dollars of assets invested in gas car tech in the form of intellectual property, tooling, manufacturing assets, ongoing R&D, and human resources. To fully engage in BEVs, these gas car automakers would have to write off these billions in assets immediately, which is fiscal suicide. They would be killed in the stock market and that CEO would be kicked out that quarter. Add that no one gas car maker will go first. ...

Instead these automakers must amortize these gas car assets over 10 if not 20 years, moving only gradually away from gas car tech. Unable to "shift ... quickly", the incumbents’ "competitive response" will be lackluster at best and inadequate to close Tesla’s eight-year lead.
...
It doesn’t really matter how "enlightened" the CEO is; their choice is grim. These assets define the existence of the incumbents, making possible their past glories yet thwarting their future.

Market Share
Careful study of the public announcements by incumbents reveals that, except for GM, they will produce no more than about 2000 long-range BEVs per year, and even then years from now. It’s easy to get confused by all the vaporware these incumbents send out while their actual response to the Model S today is to merely increase the horsepower in their gas engines.

If you look carefully at the press releases around their concept BEVs and the like, the incumbents don’t state their annual production rate or the MSRP. An excellent example is BMW won’t challenge Tesla until 2021. Only in 2016 did this pattern become clear.
...
Tesla has over 25% profit margins on its Model S line, but has no interest in maintaining merely its own status quo. Consistent with their Secret Master Plan, Tesla reinvests what would have been profits into itself, specifically the Model X ramp up, building the $5 billion Gigafactory, and Model 3 research and development. That’s exactly what long-term TSLA investors want Tesla to do.

http://tesla.dauger.com/disrupts/incumbentsshackles.html

[Sigmetnow]

Ten ways the electric car revolution will transform the global economy
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ten-ways-electric-car-revolution-transform-global-michael-liebreich

[Sigmetnow]

Out with the old, in with the new.  Interstate 95 Supercharger in Maryland to be built on old Chevron gas station site.   

Maryland’s new Tesla Supercharger will be built on ex-Chevron property
http://www.teslarati.com/maryland-tesla-supercharger-built-on-chevron-property/


Edit:  Or not.    Article has been corrected:  "Editor’s note: We have corrected the original story by removing a previous reference stating that the Tesla Supercharger in Aberdeen, Maryland will be built on an ex-Chevron property. "

Still, "Additional reports that Tesla is in negotiations to expand its Supercharger network into gas stations and grocery store chains throughout the U.S. further validates that the company is laser-focused on laying the groundwork to support its grandiose plans to electrify the future of transportation."

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-reportedly-talks-gas-stations-install-supercharger-stalls/

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.:  National Drive Electric Week, September 10-18, 2016, is a nationwide celebration to heighten awareness of today's widespread availability of plug-in vehicles and highlight the benefits of all-electric and plug-in hybrid-electric cars, trucks, motorcycles, and more.

Check the link for events near you:   https://driveelectricweek.org

[Sigmetnow]

Electric Vehicle Sales In The US Rise By Largest Amount Ever In August

We should note that the trend of setting new monthly record highs in 2016 is not a new thing, as EV sales in the US have now set new highs in every month* this year.

However, the last 3 months have seen particularly strong sales improvements – July was up 50%, while June was up 45%.
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Leading the way, as it often [has done this] year, was Tesla Motors – selling around 5,000 Model S and Model X all-electric vehicles by our estimate during the month.  But we should note that August was also the first time in history that 6 different automakers delivered more than 1,000 vehicles in the same month.
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Pure Electric Car Market Share vs PHEV In August*

BEV – 7,822 -52.6%
PHEV – 7,060 – 47.4%

(*) estimated

http://insideevs.com/electric-vehicle-sales-in-the-us-rise-by-largest-amount-ever-in-august/

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To Beat Tesla, China Plans To Boost Electric Vehicle Sales 10-Fold

The electric vehicle revolution is now as unstoppable as the renewable revolution. China understands that fact better than any other country.

Much as China did whatever was necessary to become the global leader in manufacturing and deploying both solar and wind energy, they are doing the same for electric vehicles and batteries. They became the number one market for electric vehicles last year, as their sales tripled, Europe’s almost doubled, and America’s flatlined.

The Chinese government is aiming at a more than 1,000 percent increase in sales by 2025, some 3 million units a year. And as Bloomberg reports, to achieve that remarkable goal, “it’s offering subsidies that can total 60 percent of an electric-car’s sticker price.”
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Today, while Tesla racks up a record-setting 400,000 presales for its affordable Model 3 due out next year, the world’s leading EV maker, China’s BYD, has already sold more EVs than Tesla, GM, and Nissan combined!

https://thinkprogress.org/china-to-boost-electric-vehicle-sales-10-fold-211053eb032b

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Package delivery system concept from Mercedes Vans.  Not much for the “driver” to do except hand the package (the van gives him) to the recipient.  Oh, and there are autonomous drones on the roof.    Article and video at the link.

The Vision Van merges numerous innovative technologies and serves as the cent ral, intelligent element in a fully connected delivery chain. Innovative algorithms control order picking, the loading of packages, the fully automated cargo space management, route planning for the vehicle and the delivery drones. They also calculate ideal delivery routes for the package deliverer. Automatic order picking takes place at the logistics centre, for example, and consignments are loaded into special racking systems. Driverless handling vehicles load the racks by way of an automated one-shot loading process. The intelligent cargo space management system automatically transfers packages for manual delivery to the deliverer at the delivery destination by means of a package dispenser on board the vehicle. At the same time, the system supplies two drones, each with a payload capacity of two kilogrammes, with consignments for autonomous delivery within a radius of 10 km.”

https://electrek.co/2016/09/07/mercedes-all-electric-van-concept-delivery-industry-robots/

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For reasons put forth in Reply #1229 above, joint ventures with Chinese companies might just be the best way for established ICE car manufacturers to move into the BEV business.

Volkswagen gearing up for massive electric vehicle plan with new joint venture in China

The Volkswagen Group has been increasing its efforts in the electric vehicle segment ever since the ‘DieselGate’ scandal. Mostly through its new mission to  build 2 to 3 million all-electric cars a year and unveil 30 new models by 2025.

Today, we learn that that the German automaker signed a joint venture memorandum of understanding with China’s Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co. that would effectively allow VW to accelerate their production of electric vehicles by mass producing them in China as well as sharing technology with the local manufacturers to increase the amount of EVs in the country.

According to the official statement to the Shanghai Stock Exchange (which you’ll most likely have to use Google Translate to read), the two companies are looking to come together and collaborate towards a “cooperative target” of increasing electric vehicle production. The intentions of this agreement are for VW to work towards being at the forefront of EV production, especially with their recent emissions scandal, and China looking to better the local environment with more cleaner vehicles on their roads.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/07/volkswagen-gearing-up-for-massive-electric-vehicle-plan-with-new-joint-venture-in-china/


However, China is still wary of foreign ownership, until they are sure their domestic companies have the technology to compete.

China Carmakers Urge Foreign Ownership Cap to Remain for 5 Years

China should keep the 50 percent cap on foreign ownership in local passenger-vehicle joint ventures for at least another five to eight years to ensure Chinese carmakers are ready for full-fledged competition, according to the state-backed auto association.

The government can consider lifting the limit on different parts of the automotive industry according to their maturity, starting with the motorcycle industry in one or two years, followed by commercial vehicles in three to four years, Ye Shengji, deputy secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview on Saturday in Tianjin. The cap on passenger vehicles should be the last to go, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-05/china-carmakers-urge-foreign-ownership-cap-to-remain-for-5-years

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The historically important car-manufacturing state of Michigan attempts to remain competitive by welcoming autonomous drive testing.

Michigan Moves to Not Require Human in Driverless Test Cars

Lansing, Mich. (AP) -- Michigan would no longer require that someone be inside a self-driving car while testing it on public roads under legislation passed unanimously Wednesday by the state Senate, where backers touted the measures as necessary to keep the U.S. auto industry's home state ahead of the curve on rapidly advancing technology.

The bills , which are on track for final legislative approval by year's end and are supported by Republican Gov. Rick Snyder, would end a requirement that a researcher be present inside an autonomous test vehicle. The researcher would have to "promptly" take control of its movements if necessary, or the vehicle would have to be able to stop or slow on its own.

Supporters said the human operator requirement is seen as an impediment that could put Michigan at risk of losing research and development to other states.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-07/michigan-may-not-require-a-human-in-self-driving-test-cars

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Tesla today announced a big Autopilot upgrade that will begin to be rolled out to Tesla cars with existing autopilot hardware via over-the-air update in the next few weeks.  The biggest news is an increase in safety provided by a unique analysis of the car's radar signals over time.  (Musk prefers radar to lidar on cars, because radar can see through fog/rain/snow, whereas light-based lidar cannot.  He does use lidar on the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, however.)

The Tesla blog post:
Upgrading Autopilot: Seeing the World in Radar

...The net effect of this, combined with the fact that radar sees through most visual obscuration, is that the car should almost always hit the brakes correctly even if a UFO were to land on the freeway in zero visibility conditions.

Taking this one step further, a Tesla will also be able to bounce the radar signal under a vehicle in front - using the radar pulse signature and photon time of flight to distinguish the signal - and still brake even when trailing a car that is opaque to both vision and radar. The car in front might hit the UFO in dense fog, but the Tesla will not.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar


Elon Musk sees 3x potential increase in safety with Tesla’s new Autopilot update
https://electrek.co/2016/09/11/elon-musk-sees-3x-potential-increase-in-safety-with-teslas-new-autopilot-update/

Electrek has posted several articles recently the new software v8.0 features, which you can get to by scrolling down their HOME page.  Here's one that includes quotes from today's news conference:

Elon Musk explains Tesla Autopilot’s new capacity to see ahead of the car in front of you
https://electrek.co/2016/09/11/elon-musk-autopilot-update-can-now-sees-ahead-of-the-car-in-front-of-you/


Now that Tesla has Biohazard Air Filtration and UFO Collision Avoidance, I'm guessing the next upgrade will include Zombie Apocalypse protection of some sort... 

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Electrek is in the process of transcribing today's Tesla Autopilot Update press conference.  Here's an excerpt:

But after a lot of analysis and getting some upgraded drivers from our supplier for the radar to expose more raw functionality we now believe that we can combine that with fleet learning and almost entirely eliminate the false positive – the false braking events – and enable the car to initiate braking no matter what the object is as long as it is not large and fluffy.

But anything large, or metallic, or dense, we are confident that the radar system in the car will be able to detect that and initiate a braking event. Both when the Autopilot is active and when it is not active. When the Autopilot is not active, it will operate in an emergency braking mode. In that case, it’s more likely to mitigate the impact speed because if Autosteer it doesn’t know if the driver is actually going to get out-of-the-way of an obstacle or not. So it will only brake at the very last second.

If Autosteer is turned on, the car computer knows what its probable path is and whether it will actually turn in time or not. And so it will be a much more comfortable braking experience as opposed to the last-minute and in that case, we think mostly likely we will be able to brake to a complete stop instead of simply mitigating the impact velocity.

We think it will probably work better with Autopilot on than off. It’s quite and exciting thing.

The exciting thing is that even if the vision system doesn’t recognize what the object because it could be a very strange-looking vehicle, it could be a multi-car pileup, it could be a truck crossing the road, it really could be anything – an alien spaceship, a pile of junk metal that fell off the back a truck. It actually doesn’t matter what the object is it just knows that there’s something dense that it is going to hit – and it should not hit that.

It doesn’t need to know what that thing is – while a vision system really needs to know what the thing is. It is what I think will be a very dramatic improvement in the safety of the vehicle and entirely through software – no additional sensors are needed.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/11/transcript-elon-musks-press-conference-about-tesla-autopilot-under-v8-0-update-part-1/

[Paddy]

Driving from Delhi to London in a solar-powered Tuk Tuk: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/12/solar-powered-tuk-tuk-reaches-uk-road-trip-india

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Proterra unveils new Catalyst E2 all-electric bus with 350 miles of range on massive 660 kWh battery

Proterra unveils today its new Catalyst E2 and it claims it will cover the “daily mileage needs of nearly every U.S. mass transit route on a single charge” – leaving no excuse to fleet managers for not going with all-electric buses when replacing their fleet.

The Catalyst E2’s modular battery pack can store between 440 – 660 kWh of energy depending on its configuration. The company says that it can achieve a nominal range of 194 – 350 miles, again depending on the battery configuration, but additionally, it managed to log “more than 600 miles on a single charge” during at Michelin’s Laurens Proving Grounds last month.

The bus maker’s biggest battery pack was the 330 kWh in the Catalyst XR electric bus.

Ryan Popple, CEO of Proterra, on the announcement:

“Proterra’s primary goal has always been to create a purpose-built, high-performance electric vehicle that can serve every single transit route in the United States. Today, with the unveiling of the Catalyst E2 Series, that goal has been achieved. The question is no longer who will be an early adopter of this technology, but rather who will be the last to commit to a future of clean, efficient, and sustainable mobility. With the Catalyst E2 offering a no-compromise replacement for all fossil fuel buses, battery-electric vehicles have now broken down the final barrier to widespread market adoption.”

Proterra claims to have sold 312 electric buses to date and that sales are 220% since last year. Its vehicles in operation right now have logged in over 2.5 million miles.

The company expects to double its production in 2017 with the deliveries of its new Catalyst E2.

Interestingly, Proterra’s buses are not only able to travel far on a single charge, but they can also recharge fairly quickly thanks to the company’s proprietary charging technology, which it open-sourced earlier this year.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/12/proterra-unveils-new-catalyst-e2-all-electric-bus-with-350-miles-of-range-on-massive-660-kwh-battery/

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Google started work years earlier, but its insistence that its driving system must be fully autonomous has seen it fall behind its competitors.

Google's Self-Driving Car Project Is Losing Out to Rivals

This is part of a broader challenge Google parent Alphabet Inc. faces turning research projects into profitable businesses. The company is more cautious about rolling out new technology early, after its Glass internet-connected eyewear flopped, according to one of the people. There’s also a higher bar now for projects as Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat has said she requires clearer paths to profitability before approving more funding or expansion.

Possibly the biggest drag on the program is the sheer scope of Google’s ambitions. Its aim is to revolutionize transportation through full autonomy. The software must be trained thoroughly to handle all eventualities. Meanwhile, there are already methods to make self-driving cars good, rather than perfect. That has helped companies including Uber, Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz, Tesla and Volvo Car Group catch up with Google, Juneja said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-12/google-car-project-loses-leaders-and-advantage-as-rivals-gain

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Aon report shows fear for insurance industry in a driverless car future

A new report issued by Aon confirms fears of a driverless car future where car insurance isn’t needed, impacting the cost of our home insurance.

Aon’s annually released Global Insurance Market Opportunities (GIMO) report attempts to examine the key areas of potential growth and disruption for insurers in the years to come. In this case, it looks at how driverless cars will likely harm their profit margins.

Entitled Riding the Innovation Wave, the report estimates that, with autonomous vehicles set to begin hitting the road properly in 2018, there will be an 81pc reduction in claims frequency in the following decades in the US.

http://linkis.com/siliconrepublic.com/buDoM

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AI (Artificial Intelligence) will eliminate 6% of jobs in the next five years, says report

Within five years robots and so-called intelligent agents will eliminate many positions in customer service, trucking and taxi services, amounting to six percent of jobs, according to a Forrester report.

"By 2021, a disruptive tidal wave will begin," said Brian Hopkins, VP at Forrester, in the report. "Solutions powered by AI/cognitive technology will displace jobs, with the biggest impact felt in transportation, logistics, customer service, and consumer services."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/12/ai-will-eliminate-six-percent-of-jobs-in-five-years-says-report.html

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All-electric Chevy Bolt will have EPA range of 238 miles.  Price may be reduced.  New pictures.

After only talking about “more than 200 miles” for over a year now, GM finally announced today the expected EPA-rated range of its upcoming all-electric Chevy Bolt EV. The automaker expects the EPA to give the Bolt an impressive range of 238 miles.
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Interestingly, GM is now talking about an “expected MSRP below $37,500 and before available federal tax credit of up to $7,500″ so we might see the price go down. Tesla actually announced that the base price of the Model 3 would be $35,000 before incentives. GM could be looking to match Tesla’s base price as they are aiming to convince some of the company’s ~400,000 reservation holders to buy the Bolt instead of waiting for the Model 3.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/13/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-range-of-238-miles-price-decrease-tesla-model-3/

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Sell last gasoline car by 2035 to meet climate goals, study says

The last gasoline-powered car will have to be sold by about 2035 to put the world on track to limit global warming to the most stringent goal set by world leaders last year, a study said on Thursday.

The report, by a Climate Action Tracker (CAT) backed by three European research groups, said a drastic shift was needed towards clean electric cars and fuel efficiency since transport emits about 14 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-cars-idUSKCN11L197


But, you may say, there's no way we can increase EV production and sales by 2035 to equal the number of new cars we sell today.  However, we won't have to.  Why?  Because fully autonomous cars will make Uber-like taxi services cost a fraction of what they are today, where the biggest cost is the driver.  The second biggest Uber expense today is car fueling and maintenance -- which will also decrease markedly as EVs are used instead of ICE cars.  With the ability (in populous areas) to call up whatever kind of car you need, whenever you need it, and no more parking, maintenance, or insurance hassles, and regular use of such car services costing about 1/3 the expense of owning your own car... the number of privately-owned vehicles will plummet.  (Of course, the big automakers do not believe this At All.)

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Eleven teams just drove around the world in electric vehicles: 9 Teslas, 1 Denza & a bus

Four years ago, Rafael de Mestre became the first EV driver to solo circumnavigate the globe in his Tesla Roadster.  He’s just done it again, this time with company, once again showing that EVs are entirely suitable for long distance travel.  After challenging EV drivers to join him in an around-the-world road rally, they departed in June and finished in 80 days as planned, under the Arc de Triomf in Barcelona.  The rally included eleven teams from nine countries, including eight Tesla Model S, one Tesla Roadster, one DENZA (a joint brand from Daimler and BYD), and an electric bus from Hungarian firm Modulo.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/16/eleven-teams-just-drove-around-the-world-in-electric-vehicles-9-teslas-1-denza-a-bus/

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Ummm....  Yay?   Right direction, but waaaaay too slow.
But: if fully autonomous driving reduces the number of vehicles needed, as drastically as some are predicting, the total number of GM's factories should decrease as well.  Which could mean they could hit their 100% renewables target much earlier -- if they manage the change to EVs.    If GM is still around in 2050, it likely won't look much like it does today.

GM pledges 100% renewable energy power by 2050

The Detroit automaker said its goal is to generate or source electrical power for 350 facilities in 59 countries with renewable wind, sun and landfill gas energy during the next three-plus decades. This year, GM expects to have 3.8 percent of electricity use come from renewable resources.
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The automaker also said it is joining RE100, a global business collaborative of 69 companies that are pledging 100 percent renewable electricity use. GM isn’t the only automaker — India-based Tata Motors and Germany-based BMW Group also are on the list. BMW has a goal to source more than two-thirds of electricity from renewable energy by 2020. Other businesses who have pledged include IKEA, Google, HP and Steelcase.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2016/09/14/gm-pledges-renewable-energy-power/90369186/

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Tesla Model S P100D officially dethrones the Toyota Mirai with longest range for zero emission cars.
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Now that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) gave its official rating of 315 miles this week, like Tesla estimated, it dethroned the Toyota Mirai for the longest range of any zero-emission car.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/19/tesla-model-s-p100d-epa-range-dethrones-toyota-mirai-longest-range/

It's a good bet that the Tesla Model 3, with its smaller size/lighter weight, amazingly low drag coefficient, and new battery technology, will have a range at least approaching 300 miles with whatever its biggest (optional) battery turns out to be.