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Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 332700 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1300 on: February 11, 2017, 11:16:50 PM »
The attached image comes from the linked article entitled: "Messing about with model-obs comparisons".  While the graph comes with some disclaimers, it does give one pause for thought about where we are likely headed.

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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1301 on: February 14, 2017, 04:21:56 PM »
I see from Roy Spencer's blog about the UAH satellite global temp data that even the much touted warm El Nino year of 1998 has been surpassed by last year as the warmest year in the 38 year satellite record.

Yes, the good Dr Roy doesn't seem to be too keen about discussing the impact of the change in the UAH retrieval algorithm from [Ver5.6] to [Ver6 beta5]

This gets described on the ClimateGate 2 thread, especially comments #17 to #20


Arguably the most relevant words are...
"...The underlying data, used to populate the chart below, reveals that UAH version6 beta5 has inflated the 1998 Jan-Dec anomaly by over 0.06C, whilst simultaneously depressing the 2016 Jan-Dec anomaly by over 0.08C. The resultant effect was to reduce the 2016 anomaly by 0.15C w.r.t. its 1998 equivalent..."

The comparison chart is reproduced below...

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1302 on: February 14, 2017, 04:34:47 PM »
Japanese JMA came in with January being a solid second warmest such on record. The margin to 2016 was 0,13oC and 0,10o warmer than 2015, 2007 and 2002, all on third place.

Earlier, Copernicus also put 2017 into a second place but with a slim margin to the third warmest year.


Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1303 on: February 14, 2017, 04:41:25 PM »
Getting more on topic of "surface" temps, as opposed to TLT's...

HadSST for Jan 2017 was the second warmest Jan in that dataset.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt

BEST for Jan 2017 was the second warmest Jan in that dataset.
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Land_and_Ocean_complete.txt


NB BEST provide two subtly different versions, depending upon how temperatures in sea-ice covered areas are taken. It is  their "preferred" technique that had 2017 as the second warmest January. The "non-preferred" technique has Jan 2017 in 3rd place.

The relevant part from the explanatory text reads...

"Two versions of this average are reported.  These differ in how they treat locations with sea ice.  In the first version, temperature anomalies in the presence of sea ice are extrapolated from land-surface air temperature anomalies. In the second version, temperature anomalies in the presence of sea ice are extrapolated from sea-surface water temperature anomalies (usually collected from open water areas on the periphery of the sea ice).  For most of the ocean, sea-surface temperatures are similar to near-surface air temperatures; however, air temperatures above sea ice can differ substantially from the water below the sea ice.  The air temperature version of this average shows larger changes in the recent period, in part this is because water temperature changes are limited by the freezing point of ocean water.  We believe that the use of air temperatures above sea ice provides a more natural means of describing changes in Earth's surface temperature."

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1304 on: February 15, 2017, 06:34:09 PM »
NASA just reported a January anomaly being third warmest such on record behind 2016 and 2007.The anomaly was +0,92oC above the 1951-1980 average. January 2016 had an anomaly of +1,13o while January 2007 was +0,96o warmer. The gap to January 2015 at fourth place is quite large, almost 0,1oC (was +0,82oC warmer).

In addition, NASA has made BIG changes to some months in 2016! For. ex, November was down from +0,95o to +0,89o. February also looks significantly lower and the annual anomaly is now down to +0,98oC.

//LMV

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1305 on: February 16, 2017, 07:39:15 PM »
NASA just reported a January anomaly being third warmest such on record behind 2016 and 2007...

NOAA has just mirrored the NASA result mentioned by LMV


Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1306 on: February 16, 2017, 07:57:17 PM »
Some interesting analysis features are available to all on NOAA's Climate At A Glance...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

Here, for example, are the latest 48 12-month periods, each taken February till January.

Points worthy of note:

Seven of the most recent eight years appear in the top nine.

The most recent four years appear in the top five.

The last three years fill out the top three.

The trend over this 48-year period is ~ +0.17C/decade.
 

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1307 on: February 16, 2017, 08:29:07 PM »
Another interesting fact is that 2007 followed on the top of a weak El Niño while this January was in a marginal La Niña (despite BoM didn't classify it as a La Niña).

aslan

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1308 on: February 16, 2017, 09:33:03 PM »
NASA just reported a January anomaly being third warmest such on record behind 2016 and 2007.The anomaly was +0,92oC above the 1951-1980 average. January 2016 had an anomaly of +1,13o while January 2007 was +0,96o warmer. The gap to January 2015 at fourth place is quite large, almost 0,1oC (was +0,82oC warmer).

In addition, NASA has made BIG changes to some months in 2016! For. ex, November was down from +0,95o to +0,89o. February also looks significantly lower and the annual anomaly is now down to +0,98oC.

//LMV

NASA again dropped Arctic stations because they are warming too fast. So the algorithm assumes theses ones are in error. It is something like, if the anomalie is above a threshold of x °C during y months, so throw out this station. Ostrov Vize for example, near the epicenter of the "oceanification" of the Arctic was discarded after measuring records after records. NASA will probably fix it but in the mean time, Ostrov Vize are available in the raw and unadujusted data :

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_222200690000_7_0_1/station.txt

But no longer in the homoginized data set :

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_222200690000_5_0_1/station.txt

Denialists are always complaining that scientists are alarmiosts, will in fact it the contrary. They are extremly conservative...

aslan

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1309 on: February 17, 2017, 11:16:35 AM »
Also, temperatures in tropics are warming fast and furious. For the Southern Hemisphere, we are all aware that weather is overheating, especially in Australia. But in the vast region going from Sahara to India, in the Northen Hemisphere, temperatures are already extraordinary warm. And fact is that this is endogenous warmth, which tends to accumulate months after months. So that a warm February is often follow by a warm March etc... And even more in the context of ongoing record warmth globally. Last year, when wolrd reached its warmest temperature ever in July - August (54°C around Kuwait), warning signs were visible with extremes heat in the Spring from Senegal to India. I am not aware of many monthly records, but we are still mid month. Usually, records occurs later in February in the Northern Hemisphere. But temperatures are already extraordinary high for this time of year, and if this is not monthly records this is often records for a first part of February. One point is that warmth is really widespread, from Atlantic to Pacific through all Africeurasia or I don't know how is called this continent, like in 2016. Records in tropics occured in other years of course, especially 2005, 2006, 2010, but here near record are showing about everywhere in the tropical band, like in 2016 and a bit like 2015 (but to a lesser degree of warmth in 2015). We will see, but this is not boding well also...

For example, Yelimane reached 42°C the 16th (presumptive record, 44.3°C 02/28/2010), Karachi 34.5°C the 15th (presumptive record 36.5°C the 02/27/2016), Bhuj-Rudramata 37.5°C the 15th (presumptive record 39.2°C the 02/29/2016), Save 40.4°C the 15th (presumptive record 41°C the 02/20/2016, national record for Benin 44.5°C the 04/28/1952 -monsoon comes early in Benin-).

The most extraordinary is Sarh, in Chad :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=64750&decoded=yes&ndays=20&ano=2017&mes=02&day=15&hora=06

There is no obvious indication that reports coul be in error (the SYNOP from the 13th at 15Z is erroneous of course, but the others don't look in error to me). Max T is 44°C, 43.7°C and 41.2°C for a synoptic hour. In the same time, GFS is showing T850 above 28°C in the region, with a small thermal low. If it is valid, Sarh fall short of the hemispheric record of February, but the 11th of the month ! Hemispheric record is probably a 45°C reading in Sudan, the 25th of February in 2005.

Oceanic temperatures are lower than in 2016 apparently, so this will perhaps temper the seasonal rise of temperatures. And a stronger temperature gradient between Ocean and Land can possibly lead to a stronger monsoon, tempering even more the warmth. But it does not need a lot of imagination to construct an idea of what this mean in May or June after 4 months of seasonal rise if the start of the rise is already above 40°C....
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 11:25:43 AM by aslan »

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1310 on: February 17, 2017, 12:21:48 PM »
Hi aslan!
I'm worried that too many people looked at last years record temps and just blamed El Nino and forgot the two record years before?
I think we saw a flip in 2014 ( reflected in the record global warmth that year) and that this change is still ongoing allowing higher temps with , or without, the help of El Nino?
Unlike past large nino's I do not think there will be much of a time lag before the next record warm year is logged? I'd be surprised if that was in 2017 but by 2018 we should be in the running, if this change to accelerated warming continues?
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BenB

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1311 on: February 17, 2017, 12:42:34 PM »
According to Nick Stokes, 2017 is averaging an anomaly of around 0.51°C at the moment. The full-year anomaly for 2014 was 0.19°C, so the rest of this year needs to average just 0.15°C to beat that. The current daily anomaly is 0.6°C, so the required average is going down day by day. It seems very likely that 2017 will be top 3, and it could quite feasibly beat 2015 for second place.

aslan

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1312 on: February 17, 2017, 01:43:20 PM »
Yeah I agree, I even think the flip was already perceptible in 2013. The first thing that caught my attention in 2013 was the rise of CO2. The annual rise was the 3rd highest at the time (behind 1998 and 1987). It is a “proxy indicator" but this really caught my attention during 2013. And the year ends with the 3rd highest mean annual temperature. All of this despite marginally cold conditions in the Pacific. I am extremely cautious calling this an acceleration. We criticize the denialists for emphasizing a slowdown which was never significant, so I don't want to overreacting to an acceleration which is still in its infancy and not statistically significant.
But this is really disturbing to see near record warmth on an almost perpetual basis since 4 years, despite all the ups and downs in the Pacific. The year 2017 is actually set to be a top 3 again, yes.
I am not sure also how to explain. This does not look to be tied strongly to the Pacific, because we are riding the warmth no matter the state of ENSO. But it looks like that tropics are more involved. I think this may be tied to a reduction of aerosols load in the atmosphere, following a reduced use of coal worldwide. But this is only a guess. We will see but the trend is really disturbing.
In the opposite direction, it is true also that we were running  a bit below the trends in climate models. Given the major El Niño in 2016, the yearly record was not so extraordinary compared to the forecasts ( https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/comparing-cmip5-observations/ ):
But the trend being really high (0.2°C per decade, at least), this is not really comforting...
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 01:55:39 PM by aslan »

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1313 on: February 17, 2017, 06:51:59 PM »
The recent analysis of cloud reflectivity with much darker ice nucleation at cloud tops and expanding cloud regimes shows that ECS is closer to 4.7  This is also shown in many other anecdotal indicators.  The only way that this can possibly be true with our previous temperature profile (since 1995 or so) is that we have vastly underestimated the impacts of sulphur dioxide.  Its effects on the tropics, regional suppression of GPH and cloud reflectivity (as well as multi-layered water vapor/ice polarization that occurs in the upper mid latitudes) 

This model fits why we had a pause, that the tremberth deep-ocean model isn't the dominant force (though observed pacific surface wind patterns did contribute to a strong negative PDO from this increased aerosols) and that we now know that as china rapidly reduces its high-temp/upper troposphere SO2 and NOx loading, we will catch up to the climate that we should have been seeing over the last 2 decades.  This is what i am expecting.  2C by 2036. (edit: I thing this is a conservative estimate if china does what it intends - largely due to the potential for blue sea arctic in the next 5 years)

« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 06:59:35 PM by jai mitchell »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1314 on: February 17, 2017, 07:22:19 PM »
Jai M: While China most likely will lower their emissions there are signs of increasing emission numbers from India which might, at least to some degree, counteract some of the effects.

TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1315 on: February 17, 2017, 07:39:09 PM »
Jai M


Wasn't there something about a 1 c rise in temperature in the States just after 9/11, when the US closed their airspace?


Terry

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1316 on: February 17, 2017, 07:54:43 PM »
My concern has always been ( well since the late 80's when I first discovered it) that we have not fully appreciated the impacts of dimming , especially regional impacts?

We had only just begun to see the impacts of the west's 'clean air acts' ( augmented by the collapse of the USSR) when Asia began to ramp up its outputs. The speed at which this occurred did more than dump us right back where we were!

I do believe that China has made rapid inroads to cleaning up its outputs but I guess we will never really know the scale of their emissions over their worst years??? The only way we will gauge it is by how fast temps appear to spring up as the Pacific brightens.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1317 on: February 17, 2017, 09:08:08 PM »
Jai M


Wasn't there something about a 1 c rise in temperature in the States just after 9/11, when the US closed their airspace?


Terry

there was a study that showed a 3 day pulse in daytime warming and a resultant decline in nightime warming but due to the natural variability of the system and the short model period the results were not robust.  persistent contrail impacts have been significantly modeled:  https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=%22persistent+contrails%22&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C5&as_sdtp=

GW: aerosol optical depth profiles are well studied and included in the models, the issue that has not been well modeled are increases in Tropopause height on regional scales and cloud-interactive effects which appear to be very great.  it appears that the aerosol optical depth impacts are <15% of the total regional cooling impact.
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oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1318 on: February 18, 2017, 04:06:26 PM »
Maybe this belongs in the stupid questions thread, but anyhow: is the any direct measurement of the amount of aerosol / Sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere? I tend to distrust the Chinese when they claim they are cleaning up their act or whatever other intention statements amde by politicians around the world. Actual data would be much preferable.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1319 on: February 18, 2017, 05:30:10 PM »
I tend to distrust the Chinese when they claim they are cleaning up their act or whatever other intention statements amde by politicians around the world. Actual data would be much preferable.

I think I distrusted them more before it became so blindly apparent to them that they where fooling no one and also making the large cities near uninhabitable due to the levels of pollution folk were suffering?

I think we were suffering the worst of their attentions over the 'Faux Pause' and that the very strong IPO negative was IPO negative plus regional dimming from China? IPO has now turned positive so is this a sign that the 'dimming' is reducing and the 'surface warming' ( as opposed to burying the heat in the deeper ocean down to 200ft?) that characterises IPO positive is being 'enhanced' by greater amounts of sunlight now making it to the surface?

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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1320 on: February 18, 2017, 05:34:33 PM »
Aerosol data sets are found here:  https://gacp.giss.nasa.gov/data_sets/

however, the use of coal is reducing in china quite rapidly and this is a primary source.  The difference in coal consumption is well studied.

total aerosol optical depth profiles are observed directly by NASAs terra satellite http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=MODAL2_M_AER_OD

Gray-Wolf

The models show that increased aerosol emissions in China caused changes in wind patterns that favor negative PDO/IPO see:  https://www.carbonbrief.org/aerosol-emissions-key-to-the-surface-warming-slowdown-study-says  (link to the study in the article)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1321 on: February 18, 2017, 10:37:42 PM »
NASA just reported a January anomaly being third warmest such on record behind 2016 and 2007.The anomaly was +0,92oC above the 1951-1980 average. January 2016 had an anomaly of +1,13o while January 2007 was +0,96o warmer. The gap to January 2015 at fourth place is quite large, almost 0,1oC (was +0,82oC warmer).

In addition, NASA has made BIG changes to some months in 2016! For. ex, November was down from +0,95o to +0,89o. February also looks significantly lower and the annual anomaly is now down to +0,98oC.

//LMV

If one uses a conversion factor of 0.256 to convert GISS values to pre-industrial, then per my calculations this gives a 12-month running GMSTA thru the end of January 2017 of +1.22C relative to pre-industrial.
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1322 on: February 22, 2017, 01:31:33 AM »
Karsten Haustein has a combination of data and forecasts through the end of February.  If the results hold up, February's anomaly will be almost 0.10C higher than January's.

Though projections can diverge widely from the actual data from GISS et al, I'd say February is a near lock-in for 2nd Warmest in the temperature record.

After the 1998 super el Nino the 1999 temperatures plunged for the next two years.  I doubt that we will see the same reduction this time.


 

Darvince

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1323 on: February 28, 2017, 09:47:58 PM »
 :o :'( :o

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1324 on: March 01, 2017, 09:27:55 AM »
Ryan Maue estimate the February anomaly to 0,2oC lower compared to 2016. --> GISS NASA value should be in the range 1,03-1,12oC above average for 1951-1980. See Maues tweet and corresponding anomaly map: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/836799350000992258

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1325 on: March 01, 2017, 11:31:23 AM »
Where does one find equivalent longterm data regarding ocean temperatures? After all, we are told that is where 90+ percent of the excess heat is being absorbed., and stored longterm.
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Red

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1326 on: March 01, 2017, 12:35:19 PM »
Where does one find equivalent longterm data regarding ocean temperatures? After all, we are told that is where 90+ percent of the excess heat is being absorbed., and stored longterm.

This might be helpful.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1327 on: March 01, 2017, 01:45:24 PM »
Where does one find equivalent longterm data regarding ocean temperatures? After all, we are told that is where 90+ percent of the excess heat is being absorbed., and stored longterm.

This might be helpful.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

Thanks Red. Seems to me the graphs are a useful additional contradiction to the dumb trolls who are still hawking the hiatus rubbish.

Ps : It was not you in Shawcross for all those years, was it ?
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Red

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1328 on: March 01, 2017, 02:59:59 PM »
Where does one find equivalent longterm data regarding ocean temperatures? After all, we are told that is where 90+ percent of the excess heat is being absorbed., and stored longterm.

This might be helpful.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/


Thanks Red. Seems to me the graphs are a useful additional contradiction to the dumb trolls who are still hawking the hiatus rubbish.

Ps : It was not you in Shawcross for all those years, was it ?
No it was not. I'm very new to this blog and feel very technically challenged. My computer skills are sorely wanting.

James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1329 on: March 02, 2017, 11:14:48 PM »
Nick Stokes has published his data for February 2017.  The anomaly is running just under 0.1C higher than January, and about 0.25C cooler than Febrary 2016.
I'm guesstimating around 1.05+/- 0.05 (GISS) which would put it solidly in second place for February.

If February's temperature is in the range I'm guesstimating, that would also put the drop from '16 just about the same as the drop from the peak of the '98 monster el nino to the next year.  Where I am expecting a difference is in the rest of the year.  For 1999 the temperatures continued to decrease with the average for the year ending almost 1/4C lower than the February anomaly.  I don't see that happening in 2017.  I think it's a better than even bet that 2017 will be the 2nd hottest year on record, with hottest on record unlikely but possible.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1330 on: March 03, 2017, 12:34:12 AM »
Where does one find equivalent longterm data regarding ocean temperatures? After all, we are told that is where 90+ percent of the excess heat is being absorbed., and stored longterm.


This might be helpful.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/


If you're after surface temperature data for the oceans, as opposed to heat content, you could look at...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/ocean/12/1/1880-2017?trend=true&trend_base=10&firsttrendyear=1970&lasttrendyear=2017

or

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_annual_globe_ts.txt

Red

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1331 on: March 03, 2017, 01:13:44 AM »
Where does one find equivalent longterm data regarding ocean temperatures? After all, we are told that is where 90+ percent of the excess heat is being absorbed., and stored longterm.


This might be helpful.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/


If you're after surface temperature data for the oceans, as opposed to heat content, you could look at...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/ocean/12/1/1880-2017?trend=true&trend_base=10&firsttrendyear=1970&lasttrendyear=2017

or

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_annual_globe_ts.txt

Bill the site I referred to can be changed from heat content to Celsius. However I'd like to ask what's the difference between "average" C at the first site and "anomaly" at the second? When I spend to much time comparing graphs I gotta admit my grey matter starts turning to gruel  ::)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1332 on: March 03, 2017, 06:35:37 AM »
Here is a table by Nick Stokes of the GISS, NOAA 12-month anom thru February 28 2017
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1333 on: March 03, 2017, 07:18:47 AM »
OHC anomalies for every month since 1979: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt We went surprisingly not up in February.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1334 on: March 03, 2017, 11:56:41 AM »
...
Bill the site I referred to can be changed from heat content to Celsius. However I'd like to ask what's the difference between "average" C at the first site and "anomaly" at the second? When I spend to much time comparing graphs I gotta admit my grey matter starts turning to gruel  ::)


Welcome to the world where the anomaly is king.   ;)

As the actual temperature one could measure with a bog standard thermometer varies wildly depending upon the latitude/longitude/altitude/time of day/season/weather/etc/etc, these values are pretty meaningless when doing global comparisons. Instead, the common practice is to use the amount by which a specific "local" reading varies from the long-term average (typically a nominated 30-year period) for that location. (NB This 30-year average is often referred to as the climatology for that place.)

Consequently, one can talk about a +0.5 deg C anomaly occurring somewhere in the Arctic Ocean, and an identical +0.5 deg C anomaly occurring somewhere in the equatorial Pacific. In each case, the anomaly relates to the prevailing climatology for that location.

NOAA give a brief description here...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php

An example of where the actual temperature, the 30-year climatology and the resultant anomaly appear side-by-side can be seen in columns 3-5 respectively at NOAA's ENSO monitoring pages...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt


As these climatology numbers get used in the determination of the quasi-cyclic el Nino/la Nina phenomenon, they need to be updated to reflect the overall warming trend in the oceans. The update mechanism is described here...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml


I hope that helped to provide some clarification.

Red

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1335 on: March 03, 2017, 02:28:11 PM »
...
Bill the site I referred to can be changed from heat content to Celsius. However I'd like to ask what's the difference between "average" C at the first site and "anomaly" at the second? When I spend to much time comparing graphs I gotta admit my grey matter starts turning to gruel  ::)


Welcome to the world where the anomaly is king.   ;)

As the actual temperature one could measure with a bog standard thermometer varies wildly depending upon the latitude/longitude/altitude/time of day/season/weather/etc/etc, these values are pretty meaningless when doing global comparisons. Instead, the common practice is to use the amount by which a specific "local" reading varies from the long-term average (typically a nominated 30-year period) for that location. (NB This 30-year average is often referred to as the climatology for that place.)

Consequently, one can talk about a +0.5 deg C anomaly occurring somewhere in the Arctic Ocean, and an identical +0.5 deg C anomaly occurring somewhere in the equatorial Pacific. In each case, the anomaly relates to the prevailing climatology for that location.

NOAA give a brief description here...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php

An example of where the actual temperature, the 30-year climatology and the resultant anomaly appear side-by-side can be seen in columns 3-5 respectively at NOAA's ENSO monitoring pages...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt


As these climatology numbers get used in the determination of the quasi-cyclic el Nino/la Nina phenomenon, they need to be updated to reflect the overall warming trend in the oceans. The update mechanism is described here...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml


I hope that helped to provide some clarification.

Thanks Bill that is very helpful and has added to my understanding nicely. Now I just have to stir it into the gruel till it is well blended and all will be fine. :)

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1336 on: March 03, 2017, 02:45:53 PM »
Could I add my thanks, too, Bill

<Welcome, Alison, your profile has been released; Neven>
« Last Edit: March 04, 2017, 08:29:38 PM by Neven »

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1337 on: March 04, 2017, 10:40:36 PM »
@ Red - you're very welcome

@ Alison - you're very welcome - and welcome to the forum

 :)

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1338 on: March 06, 2017, 07:18:46 PM »
Copernicus reports that February 2017 was a solid second warmest on record behind 2016 with 0,18oC. https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/february-2017

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1339 on: March 08, 2017, 11:30:33 PM »
The UK's Hadley Centre has just updated the HadSST3.1.1 dataset with the February numbers.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt

The six highest February values were...

1) 2016   +0.611 deg C
2) 2017   +0.524 deg C
3) 1998   +0.478 deg C
4) 2010   +0.462 deg C
5) 2015   +0.406 deg C
6) 2007   +0.392 deg C

That puts February in each of the 3 more recent years within the 5 warmest values recorded for the month.

By way of comparison, during the big 1997/98 el Nino, the only value exceeding +0.5 was July 1998 with +0.526 deg C.

On the subject of ENSO, the NOAA figures for February show the Nino 3.4 region at -0.15 deg C. With the rolling 3-month DJF value now down to -0.4 deg C, the recent la Nina has now nominally ended.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1340 on: March 09, 2017, 01:33:54 PM »
According to Nick Stokes, the anomaly for the first 65 days of 2017 is +0.54, which means that:

We need to average around 0.11 for the rest of the year to equal 2014 for third place (behind 2016 and 2015)
We need to average around 0.3 for the rest of the year to equal 2015 for second place (behind 2016)

So, it's looking increasingly certain that 2017 will be top 3, while second place is becoming likely, but by no means certain. +0.54 is actually around the average for 2016, so we could even end up in first place, which would be pretty astonishing in the circumstances.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1341 on: March 12, 2017, 07:04:04 PM »
Berkeley Earth has recently updated their BEST dataset to include Febuary 2017. On their preferred variant (using air temperatures above sea ice) the 6 warmest Febs are...

1) 2016   +1.243 deg C
2) 2017   +1.069 deg C
3) 2010   +0.838 deg C
4) 2015   +0.803 deg C
5) 1998   +0.784 deg C
6) 2006   +0.764 deg C

Each of the last 3 Febs are in the top 4.

Still, if one uses a rolling 12-month average to the exclusion of all else, that must mean that the planet is cooling.  :o

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1342 on: March 14, 2017, 03:13:47 PM »
The attached images of Berkeley Surface Land & Ocean Temperatures thru Feb 2017 are from the linked website and they indicate the possibility that 2017 could have a warmer GMSTA than 2016 if current trends continue:

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1343 on: March 15, 2017, 11:13:59 AM »
2nd warmest February on record according to the JMA



1st. 2016(+0.62°C)
2nd. 2017(+0.44°C)
3rd. 1998(+0.43°C)
4th. 2002(+0.28°C)
5th. 2015(+0.26°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/feb_wld.html

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1344 on: March 15, 2017, 01:53:46 PM »
so Feb.2o17 is 0.01'C warmer than 1998 .. that will have a few skeptics jumping for joy .. :)
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1345 on: March 15, 2017, 02:28:06 PM »
When I look at these charts, I feel you can still make a compelling argument that the warming is still linear and not exponential.

Not sure if I should draw comfort from that.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1346 on: March 15, 2017, 02:33:47 PM »
When I look at these charts, I feel you can still make a compelling argument that the warming is still linear and not exponential.

I don't mean to "rain on your parade"......but I certainly have my concerns that we are now in a new "channel" of warmth.

And even worse....is that the "fundamentals" (increasing feedback mechanisms) have been kicking into a higher gear over the last decade.  As well.....the same arguments can be made for the rising sea levels.

The "technicals" (the chart) and the "fundamentals" (the physics) appear to be in agreement.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1347 on: March 15, 2017, 03:22:51 PM »
As well.....the same arguments can be made for the rising sea levels.

As noted above....see chart below.  The facts are pretty clear to me.  I think we will continue to see more "corroborating evidence" in coming months and years (we won't need to wait for decades).  We are now "in the middle of it".  And....according to the latest Gallup Poll....even the PUBLIC is beginning to see it.  The rise in just the last TWO YEARS has been encouraging.  Just keep in mind that politicians are ALWAYS THE LAST TO MOVE...and it is the public that forces them to move.

Temperatures are ramping up.....melting ice is ramping up.....sea levels are ramping up.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1348 on: March 15, 2017, 03:29:05 PM »
When I look at these charts, I feel you can still make a compelling argument that the warming is still linear and not exponential.

I don't mean to "rain on your parade"......but I certainly have my concerns that we are now in a new "channel" of warmth.

And even worse....is that the "fundamentals" (increasing feedback mechanisms) have been kicking into a higher gear over the last decade.  As well.....the same arguments can be made for the rising sea levels.

The "technicals" (the chart) and the "fundamentals" (the physics) appear to be in agreement.

Statistics don't corroborate acceleration. Until then pattern matching  is similar to what deniers do with cherries.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1349 on: March 15, 2017, 03:48:15 PM »
Statistics don't corroborate acceleration. Until then pattern matching  is similar to what deniers do with cherries

What a shame that if you zoom in close enough on any exponential trend it looks just like a linear trend. Of course we can use common sense and evidence to infer the acceleration, but the case is certainly weaker until the statistics catch up.

Hopefully it is not too late by the time we get better statistics.
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