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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2600 on: April 09, 2024, 08:16:54 PM »
Here are the SAT graphs derived from https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

Note that the data is always a few days behind that from https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/

Nevertheless the graphs show that World SATs are in record territory but not every day, while in the the Tropics temperatures are even more extreme.

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2601 on: April 09, 2024, 08:32:36 PM »
Here are more SAT graphs derived from https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

Arctic SATs have been at a record high for a mere 2 days so far this year, though well above the 1979-2000 average for most of the time.

Antarctic SATs have been at a record high for ZERO days so far this year, though there was an upward spike in mid-March. On April 1 SATs are well below the 1979-2000 average.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2024, 08:44:23 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2602 on: April 09, 2024, 08:49:11 PM »
And finally

- a look at daily variations from the 1979-2000 average for each region showing that the polar regions daily SATs are far more unstable than the world and tropics,
- and that the Antarctic is 50 degrees C colder than the tropics.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2603 on: April 09, 2024, 11:33:16 PM »
We protest, we campaign, we despair, we grieve for opportunities lost, we give up.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2604 on: May 29, 2024, 11:16:51 PM »
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

One thing is for sure, May is going to be another record high for Global Surface Air Temperatures, and the same in the Tropics.

But we do not see that in the Arctic and Antarctic.

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kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2605 on: June 03, 2024, 05:55:28 AM »

kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2606 on: June 03, 2024, 05:57:23 AM »

kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2607 on: June 03, 2024, 06:34:48 AM »
if we see a similar reversion to trend as post 2016 , temps might drop back to 1.4  ??

Rodius

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2608 on: June 03, 2024, 06:57:17 AM »
if we see a similar reversion to trend as post 2016 , temps might drop back to 1.4  ??

My money is on we never drop below +1.4C again.

kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2609 on: June 03, 2024, 07:09:50 AM »
am i being scammed with this report ?  ......haven't seen it anywhere else yet  .....

Freegrass

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2610 on: June 03, 2024, 07:18:22 AM »
if we see a similar reversion to trend as post 2016 , temps might drop back to 1.4  ??

My money is on we never drop below +1.4C again.
Weird shit is going on right now.
Why isn't the ice melting?
What happened to arctic amplification?
The whole world is going crazy, and the Arctic be like; I'm gonna stop melting for a few years now…
Who can make sense of this?
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2611 on: June 03, 2024, 07:51:59 AM »
"what happens by May could substantiate or invalidate an important part of his (Hansen's ) argument

https://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/column/2024-the-year-it-got-really-hot

kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2612 on: June 03, 2024, 02:24:44 PM »
if we see a similar reversion to trend as post 2016 , temps might drop back to 1.4  ??

My money is on we never drop below +1.4C again.
Weird shit is going on right now.
Why isn't the ice melting?
What happened to arctic amplification?
The whole world is going crazy, and the Arctic be like; I'm gonna stop melting for a few years now…
Who can make sense of this?

The Arctic Ice is melting. Nothing spectacular yet but it´s only early June.
We are in the slow transition phase were ice loss is compensated by extra energy loss from open water but overall the ice seems to be thinner.

Nothing changed for arctic amplification.

Anyway the Arctic has it´s own forum. Heat in the lower latitudes does not translate to ice losses in a simple manner on short time scales.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2614 on: June 05, 2024, 07:37:47 AM »
here we go  .....confirmed by Oz  ABC  ..... May smashes it ....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-05/world-the-hottest-on-record-12-months-in-a-row/103904150

El Cid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2615 on: June 05, 2024, 01:22:44 PM »
Hungary had its warmest spring ever: 2,3 C above the already high 1991-2020 average, ie. 3,5 C above the 1950-80 average. It was a very balanced and mild sping. The new record is 0,14 C higher than 1934 the previous record-holder.

On average there are 15 days with frost during spring (daily minimum temperature below 0C) but this year we had only 4.

Days with maximum temp above 25C: 21 vs the average of 11

OTOH, there was no day with max temp above 30 C, although the average is 1 day for the spring.

Biggest crop of fruits in many years (cherries, apricots, etc) as no serious frost and fungal damage. Precipitation was average.

Rodius

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2616 on: June 05, 2024, 02:43:45 PM »
if we see a similar reversion to trend as post 2016 , temps might drop back to 1.4  ??

My money is on we never drop below +1.4C again.
Weird shit is going on right now.
Why isn't the ice melting?
What happened to arctic amplification?
The whole world is going crazy, and the Arctic be like; I'm gonna stop melting for a few years now…
Who can make sense of this?

If you look too close you miss the trends.

A few years in the arctic doesn't tell us much, but look at the ten year averages and it is obvious that the ice is disappearing. It hasn't stopped shrinking, it is just taking a little breather before starting again in earnest.

Renerpho

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2617 on: June 05, 2024, 04:18:23 PM »
if we see a similar reversion to trend as post 2016 , temps might drop back to 1.4  ??

My money is on we never drop below +1.4C again.
Weird shit is going on right now.
Why isn't the ice melting?
What happened to arctic amplification?
The whole world is going crazy, and the Arctic be like; I'm gonna stop melting for a few years now…
Who can make sense of this?

If you look too close you miss the trends.

A few years in the arctic doesn't tell us much, but look at the ten year averages and it is obvious that the ice is disappearing. It hasn't stopped shrinking, it is just taking a little breather before starting again in earnest.

If you only look at the past six years then yes, it looks as if Arctic sea ice is recovering, especially during the early melting season. I agree with Rodius that this is short-term "wobble", rather than an actual reversal of the trend.

You may have gotten a similar impression in mid-2012, if you looked at the data since 2004. We all know how 2012 ended. I'm not saying 2024 is on its way to a record, just that, as Rodius said, you can miss the trend if you focus on short-term events.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2618 on: June 05, 2024, 06:24:40 PM »
Looking at decade averages, temperatures climbed 0.26 degrees Celsius from 2014 to 2023, said the study published in the journal Earth System Science Data.

In that same period, average global surface temperatures reached 1.19C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial benchmark for measuring a warming world.

It marks an increase from the 1.14C reported last year for the decade up to 2022.

...

Wednesday's report found that, by the end of 2023, human activity had pushed temperatures 1.31C above the preindustrial level.

Earth warmed a total of 1.43C with other naturally-occuring drivers -- including the El Nino weather phenomenon -- taken into account.

...

Average annual emissions for the 2013-2022 period were 53 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and the equivalent in other gases -- primarily from the use of fossil fuels like oil and gas, the report said.

In 2022, emissions amounted to 55 billion tonnes.

It means that the world's carbon budget -- the estimated amount of greenhouse gases that can to be emitted before driving the planet over the 1.5C threshold -- is "shrinking fast", the study warned.

In 2020, the IPCC calculated the remaining carbon budget in the range of 500 billion tonnes of CO2.

By early 2024, the budget had decreased to around 200 billion tonnes, the study said.

...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-13495467/Global-warming-accelerating-unprecedented-pace-study.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2619 on: June 05, 2024, 10:47:32 PM »
UN Chief Says World Is On ‘Highway to Climate Hell’ As Planet Endures 12 Straight Months of Unprecedented Heat
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-may-2024-12th-consecutive-month-record-high-temperatures
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/climate/12-months-record-heat-un-speech/index.html
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/06/1150661



The planet just marked a “shocking” new milestone, enduring 12 consecutive months of unprecedented heat, according to new data from Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitoring service.

Every single month from June 2023 to May 2024 was the world’s hottest such month on record, Copernicus data showed.

The 12-month heat streak was “shocking but not surprising” given human-caused climate change, said Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, who warned of worse to come. Unless planet-warming fossil fuel pollution is slashed, “this string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold,” he said.

Copernicus released its data the same day as United Nations Secretary General António Guterres made an impassioned speech in New York about climate change, slamming fossil fuel companies as the “godfathers of climate chaos” and, for the first time, explicitly calling on all countries to ban advertising their fossil fuel products.

Guterres urged world leaders to swiftly take control of the spiraling climate crisis or face dangerous tipping points.

Pulling back from the brink “is still just about possible”, he continued, but only if we fight harder. It all depends on decisions taken by political leaders during this decade and “especially in the next 18 months.”

"The truth is, global emissions need to fall 9% every year until 2030 to keep the 1.5 degree limit alive, but they are heading in the wrong direction,"

Quote
...“We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” ... “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.”

- UN Secretary General António Guterres

As temperatures surge, global climate commitments are “hanging by a thread,” he warned.

He said many in the oil and gas industry have “shamelessly greenwashed” while actively trying to delay climate action, aided and abetted by advertising and public relations companies.

Copernicus’ data showed each month since July 2023 has been at least 1.5 degrees warmer than temperatures before industrialization, when humans started burning large amounts of planet-heating fossil fuels.



The average global temperature over the past 12 months was 1.63 degrees above these pre-industrial levels.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-may-2024-12th-consecutive-month-record-high-temperatures

Under the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries agreed to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. While this aim refers to warming over decades, rather than a single month or year, scientists say this breach is an alarming signal.

“This is a harbinger of progressively more dangerous climate impacts close on the horizon,” said Richard Allan, a climate professor at the University of Reading in the UK.

 The news comes as the western US is experiencing its first heat wave so far this summer with temperatures soaring into the triple digits. But unprecedented heat has already left a trail of death and destruction across the planet this spring.

Dozens have died in India over the past few weeks as temperatures pushed toward 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit); brutal temperatures in Southeast Asia have caused deaths, school closures and shriveled crops; and as heat surged in Mexico, howler monkeys dropped dead from trees.

Hotter air and oceans also fuel heavier rainfall and destructive storms like those that have battered the United States, Brazil, Kenya and the United Arab Emirates, among other nations, this year.

https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-esotc-2023-europe-experienced-extraordinary-year-extremes-record-breaking

The recent heat offers “a window into the future with extreme heat that challenges the limits of human survivability,” said Ben Clarke, a researcher at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute. “It is vital people understand that every tenth of a degree of warming exposes more people to dangerous and potentially deadly heat,” he said.

...  Guterres’ speech also referenced new data released by the World Meteorological Organization, which found a nearly 86% chance that at least one of the years between 2024 and 2028 will break the hottest-year record, set in 2023.

https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/global-temperature-likely-exceed-15degc-above-pre-industrial-level-temporarily-next-5-years

The WMO also calculated a nearly 50% chance that global average temperatures over the entire five-year period between 2024 and 2028 would be more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. That would bring the world closer to breaching the longer-term 1.5-degree limit at the heart of the Paris Agreement.

 Guterres laid blame for the climate crisis firmly at the doorstep of fossil fuel companies that “rake in record profits and feast off trillions in taxpayer-funded subsidies,” he said.

These companies have spent billions of dollars over decades “distorting the truth, deceiving the public and sowing doubt,” he added. He called on every country to ban fossil fuel ads, similar to advertising bans implemented around the world for other products that harm human health, such as tobacco.

“We are at a moment of truth,” he said, adding that the battle for a liveable planet would be won or lost in this decade.

« Last Edit: June 06, 2024, 02:20:39 PM by vox_mundi »
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2620 on: June 06, 2024, 03:57:18 AM »
And 11 months straight over "1.5" degrees, per the chart vox_mundi just posted.

Isn't that a threshold we didn't want to exceed?  :'(

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2621 on: June 06, 2024, 12:50:11 PM »
And 11 months straight over "1.5" degrees, per the chart vox_mundi just posted.

Isn't that a threshold we didn't want to exceed?  :'(

If you cherry pick and  move  the goalposts its exceeded.

ERA5 is hot compared to  the other temperature datasets. Its the trendline temperature that counts not  the excursion. Pre-industrial  at  Paris meant  0.85 below Paris. If you leave  the goalposts alone then the end of 2023  was about  here in the main datasets:

NASA: +1.21 °C
NOAA: +1.20 °C
HadCRU: +1.19 °C
Berkeley: +1.20 °C
ERA5: +1.27 °C

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/01/27/wheres-waldo-the-1-5c-threshold/

Unfortunately the IPCC has never defined pre-industrial in a satisfactory way. They gave three options, one of which allows substantial cherry-picking and thats the one that gets used rather than the one that Paris was based on.


kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2622 on: June 06, 2024, 02:47:19 PM »
recent  ......last 150 years .....reversed 6500 years of cooling  .......the last time it was this warm sea levels were 20 feet higher

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-major-paleoclimatology-global-upended-years.html#google_vignette

John_the_Younger

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2623 on: June 06, 2024, 04:50:05 PM »
Thanks Richard

kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2624 on: June 06, 2024, 07:13:16 PM »
"warming assumed by the IPCC is at the lower limit of what we assess is the true change since pre-industrial times "

https://www.carbonbrief.org/challenge-defining-pre-industrial-era/

kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2625 on: June 06, 2024, 07:24:52 PM »

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2626 on: June 06, 2024, 08:00:33 PM »
This is why I strongly feel the experts and policymakers should be setting targets and assessing thresholds against global mean temperatures in degrees Celsius rather than some arbitrary and shiftable delta. It’s crazy that after decades of conversations we still insist on this disjointed dog and pony show instead of using the actual temperature.

The Walrus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2627 on: June 06, 2024, 08:53:49 PM »
It is not just setting a target, but how it can be achieved.  Policymakers are good at setting targets.  The difficult part is how it can be done.

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2628 on: June 06, 2024, 09:39:13 PM »
I never understood the argument of changing the baseline period for pre-industrial.

the consequences of warming, hence the targets to limit warming below them are based on a value relative to the latter period of pre-industrial.  If we moved the baseline to an earlier period that was 0.2C COLDER then that would RAISE the targets since the absolute value is the same.

Instead of 'well below 2C' it would be 'well below 2.2C' for the same temperature, the same consequences and the same attempt to avoid those same consequences. . .

so what is the point?
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2629 on: June 06, 2024, 09:45:48 PM »
And 11 months straight over "1.5" degrees, per the chart vox_mundi just posted.

Isn't that a threshold we didn't want to exceed?  :'(

If you cherry pick and  move  the goalposts its exceeded.

ERA5 is hot compared to  the other temperature datasets. Its the trendline temperature that counts not  the excursion. Pre-industrial  at  Paris meant  0.85 below Paris. If you leave  the goalposts alone then the end of 2023  was about  here in the main datasets:

NASA: +1.21 °C
NOAA: +1.20 °C
HadCRU: +1.19 °C
Berkeley: +1.20 °C
ERA5: +1.27 °C

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/01/27/wheres-waldo-the-1-5c-threshold/

Unfortunately the IPCC has never defined pre-industrial in a satisfactory way. They gave three options, one of which allows substantial cherry-picking and thats the one that gets used rather than the one that Paris was based on.

Here is the press conference today on the multiple methods.  The Hadrut decadal average is 1.19 but the current (2023) anthropogenic temperature profile is 1.32C.

https://unfccc-events.azureedge.net/SB60_99745/agenda
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kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2630 on: June 06, 2024, 09:47:53 PM »
@  jai   .....if temps were cooler pre industrial than our current estimate of them , then temps have risen more .......for the same amount of increased GHG level that we are measuring today

i would suggest this could mean that Climate Sensitivity is HIGHER than the current CONSENSUS is suggesting

just my humble opinion of course !!  .....i haven't published a scientific paper on it    .......unlike James Hansen and his team......

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2631 on: June 06, 2024, 11:11:07 PM »

Here is the press conference today on the multiple methods.  The Hadrut decadal average is 1.19 but the current (2023) anthropogenic temperature profile is 1.32C.

https://unfccc-events.azureedge.net/SB60_99745/agenda

There's a  carbonbrief article  on it.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-tracking-the-unprecedented-impact-of-humans-on-the-climate/

The reason they are  at  1.3 and Tamino is at 1.2, is that they've dropped the baseline by 0.1 since Paris and consequently ought to be judging against a target of 1.6 rather than 1.5.


Rodius

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2632 on: June 07, 2024, 03:53:15 AM »
Just use the actual temp and forget the differences to the past.

1850 to 1900 was 13.6C

Today the five-year average is 14.85C (+1.25C)
The 12-month rolling average is 15.15C (+1.55C)

You can compare the current temp with any period you want, but the temp is the temp.

Our target is +1.5C ish... depending on which date it is compared to so it is difficult to determine and can be manipulated.

But make the target 15.1C and it is firm. And that is a five year average target.

2030 is when we will likely pass 15.1C in the five year average.
And I suspect the rolling year average will be close to 15.4 C

If we talk rolling year averages we have already failed... and in 3 to 5 or so years will fail again.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2633 on: June 07, 2024, 01:10:08 PM »
Just use the actual temp and forget the differences to the past.

1850 to 1900 was 13.6C


Except it wasn't.

Someone else can claim its 13.4 or 13.8 tomorrow and have a good argument to back it up. 13.6 is a cherry pick and there is not enough data from that period for it to be otherwise. Reasonable experts can and do come to substantially different judgements on what the temperature was then, and also change their minds about it as new work is done. Only 3 of the 5 main temperature series put a figure on it at all. The other 2 consider it too unreliable to estimate.

If you want to just put a figure on it, and not have that figure open to reasonable challenge, then 1950 is about as early as its possible to go. At Paris it was thought that pre-industrial was 0.85 below Paris. That number changes all the time because ideas about what the pre-industrial temperature was change all the time. There are a couple of IPCC methods for just picking a number based on post 1950 temperatures that are robust, but everyone uses the 1850-1900 numbers which are educated guesses that change every time someone reexamines the data or finds a new proxy. Consequently some people think its already 1.5, some people think its nearly 1.5 and some people think its a couple of decades away. By the time everybody agrees its over 1.5, some people will think its already 2.0. The 1850-1900 number is that uncertain.

It should have been translated into actual numbers post Paris, but the IPCC failed to do so. They were charged with firming up the numbers by Paris, but they made them looser instead.

kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2634 on: June 07, 2024, 02:31:05 PM »
reposting this  ..suggests the warming is greater than estimated .....which could mean greater sensitivity  .....which would not be good ....

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/weather/topstories/oops-scientists-may-have-miscalculated-our-global-warming-timeline/ar-BB1i3nt8

kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2635 on: June 07, 2024, 02:36:31 PM »

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2636 on: June 07, 2024, 07:58:40 PM »
changing your baseline period only changes the amount of time it takes to get a specific warming level it doesn't change the calculation for sensitivity which (many here have shown) is obviously understated since well before 2012.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2637 on: June 07, 2024, 09:48:35 PM »
if temps were .24 degrees cooler than we thought ..... then it follows that the temp rise is .24 greater than we thought ......for the same increase in GHG"s  ....... hence sensitivity is greater


Or did i miss something ?  ......always happy to be shown the error of my ways !!

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2638 on: June 07, 2024, 11:25:33 PM »
The reason we would move pre-industrial a bit further back is based on emissions.  It is basically say that we 'missed' some emissions and have to capture them by moving the timeline back a bit.
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2639 on: June 07, 2024, 11:46:14 PM »

If you cherry pick and  move  the goalposts its exceeded.

ERA5 is hot compared to  the other temperature datasets. Its the trendline temperature that counts not  the excursion. Pre-industrial  at  Paris meant  0.85 below Paris. If you leave  the goalposts alone then the end of 2023  was about  here in the main datasets:

NASA: +1.21 °C
NOAA: +1.20 °C
HadCRU: +1.19 °C
Berkeley: +1.20 °C
ERA5: +1.27 °C

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/01/27/wheres-waldo-the-1-5c-threshold/

Unfortunately the IPCC has never defined pre-industrial in a satisfactory way. They gave three options, one of which allows substantial cherry-picking and thats the one that gets used rather than the one that Paris was based on.

These numbers that Tamino calculated were also cited as the most conservative option of the three chosen, and they use a 30-year trendline, which also seems conservative to me considering the accelerating rate of warming in the past 15-20 years relative to the 1970s-90s. Note, he picked this 30-year interval, the Paris agreement just specifies a "multi-decadal time-scale".
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-why-the-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-is-what-scientists-expect/

I think one must balance reliability (length of duration) with consideration of this acceleration over time. From my perspective a 20 year period seems more balanced, though even a 10 year baseline could be argued for (would account for ENSO but not PDO cycle). I think this would give something nearer to 1.3C, which is consistent with a recently published assessment: https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-accelerating-record-hot-deadly-434881547b4585a32fa906cf5495d3f0

Its also interested that there was a ~0.33C increase seen with this method from 2015 to 2023, which equates to a warming rate of >0.4C per decade
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kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2640 on: June 08, 2024, 12:04:10 AM »
It does not really matter. We chose a historical benchmark. But we never really had a long discussion about what is actually safe. +1,5C will be problematic in enough places and +2C is enough to be deadly in many areas and that is all using the current system.




 
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2641 on: June 08, 2024, 12:36:48 AM »
It does not really matter. We chose a historical benchmark. But we never really had a long discussion about what is actually safe. +1,5C will be problematic in enough places and +2C is enough to be deadly in many areas and that is all using the current system.
 

Actually, this does matter, as how close we are to 1.5C currently has large policy implications, whether or not it "should" as you seem to imply. Both what the current increase from baseline is and even more so the rate of warming DOES matter for policy implications across many different sectors. I think trivializing this is not productive when these numbers are what are being used to hold the system as a whole accountable and drive urgency.

Though I agree that more direct evidence of impacts is a more meaningful way to do this, unfortunately policymakers tend to focus on the numbers.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2642 on: June 08, 2024, 01:31:09 AM »
@  SR  ....+1   ....so did i miss something suggesting climate sensitivity is higher than the current consensus   ......or am i talking s#@t ??

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2643 on: June 08, 2024, 02:35:14 AM »

These numbers that Tamino calculated were also cited as the most conservative option of the three chosen, and they use a 30-year trendline, which also seems conservative to me considering the accelerating rate of warming in the past 15-20 years relative to the 1970s-90s. Note, he picked this 30-year interval, the Paris agreement just specifies a "multi-decadal time-scale".
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-why-the-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-is-what-scientists-expect/

I think one must balance reliability (length of duration) with consideration of this acceleration over time. From my perspective a 20 year period seems more balanced, though even a 10 year baseline could be argued for (would account for ENSO but not PDO cycle). I think this would give something nearer to 1.3C, which is consistent with a recently published assessment: https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-accelerating-record-hot-deadly-434881547b4585a32fa906cf5495d3f0

Its also interested that there was a ~0.33C increase seen with this method from 2015 to 2023, which equates to a warming rate of >0.4C per decade

I'd prefer a smooth, but for something simple and robust I think using the 30 yr trend is reasonable and 10 would be too short with the trend line bouncing too much as Ninos moved in and out of the window.

Tamino's analysis has it at about 0.4 over the last decade. With his method for adjusting for the effects of volcanoes, ENSO and solar cycles, its a pretty obvious acceleration. (Plus its pretty obvious that an acceleration has to have happened from the energy imbalance data)
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/02/20/accelerations/

If its about 1.3 by your preferred method now, 1.5 is due in 2028, and 2.0 in 2040. I'd put another couple years on those  because I think the baseline option thats closest to the understanding at Paris puts it at 1.2 now, but I don't see it stopping this side of 1.5 even though I do think that once emissions start to fall, the economics will drive them down very fast.

Rodius

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2644 on: June 08, 2024, 02:55:54 AM »
Just use the actual temp and forget the differences to the past.

1850 to 1900 was 13.6C


Except it wasn't.

Someone else can claim its 13.4 or 13.8 tomorrow and have a good argument to back it up. 13.6 is a cherry pick and there is not enough data from that period for it to be otherwise. Reasonable experts can and do come to substantially different judgements on what the temperature was then, and also change their minds about it as new work is done. Only 3 of the 5 main temperature series put a figure on it at all. The other 2 consider it too unreliable to estimate.

If you want to just put a figure on it, and not have that figure open to reasonable challenge, then 1950 is about as early as its possible to go. At Paris it was thought that pre-industrial was 0.85 below Paris. That number changes all the time because ideas about what the pre-industrial temperature was change all the time. There are a couple of IPCC methods for just picking a number based on post 1950 temperatures that are robust, but everyone uses the 1850-1900 numbers which are educated guesses that change every time someone reexamines the data or finds a new proxy. Consequently some people think its already 1.5, some people think its nearly 1.5 and some people think its a couple of decades away. By the time everybody agrees its over 1.5, some people will think its already 2.0. The 1850-1900 number is that uncertain.

It should have been translated into actual numbers post Paris, but the IPCC failed to do so. They were charged with firming up the numbers by Paris, but they made them looser instead.

This entire response is why using anomalies is a mugs game.

What we do know is at 15.5 C things will be really bad.
At 16.0 C we are staring down the barrel of civilization collapse.
Pin a temp to the potential events they can cause and the anomaly debate just dies.

Does it matter what the temps were 300 years ago?
Not really... other than determining the sensitivities.

What matters are the increases and continuing and the effects are increasing. We should put our energy into that, not a debate on anomalies and which one to use.... and to be honest, I suspect the use of anomalies is a ploy by those who want to delay action and keep the focus on silly things rather than he things that matter.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2645 on: June 08, 2024, 07:35:12 AM »
Quote
What matters are the increases and continuing and the effects are increasing. We should put our energy into that, not a debate on anomalies
Math mate
The anomaly tells us two things.
How much it has warmed and how fast it is warming.

17 years is the minimum to tease the warming signal from the noise of weather.

Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale
Abstract
Quote
[1] We compare global-scale changes in satellite estimates of the temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT) with model simulations of forced and unforced TLT changes. While previous work has focused on a single period of record, we select analysis timescales ranging from 10 to 32 years, and then compare all possible observed TLT trends on each timescale with corresponding multi-model distributions of forced and unforced trends. We use observed estimates of the signal component of TLT changes and model estimates of climate noise to calculate timescale-dependent signal-to-noise ratios (S/N). These ratios are small (less than 1) on the 10-year timescale, increasing to more than 3.9 for 32-year trends. This large change in S/N is primarily due to a decrease in the amplitude of internally generated variability with increasing trend length. Because of the pronounced effect of interannual noise on decadal trends, a multi-model ensemble of anthropogenically-forced simulations displays many 10-year periods with little warming. A single decade of observational TLT data is therefore inadequate for identifying a slowly evolving anthropogenic warming signal. Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016263

 B. D. Santer, C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, S. Solomon, N. P. Gillett, D. Ivanova, T. R. Karl, J. R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne
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kiwichick16

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2646 on: June 08, 2024, 09:17:43 AM »
Sensitivities are the crux of the issue   ......we have increased the CO2 level by about 50 % ....and temps are currently 1.63 degrees C above pre industrial

If pre industrial temps were .24 dgrees cooler then current temps are 1.87 degrees warmer .....on a rolling 12 month average

for arguments sake lets say temps drop back to 1.4 above  pre industrial  .....and discount the possibility of pre industrial being cooler

so double CO2  ....double temps .....2.8 degrees ......and then add positive feedbacks .....

loss of arctic sea ice
loss of antarctic sea ice
perma frost melting
forests dying .....due to fires and disease
reducing absorption of CO2 by oceans

add your own favorites

kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2647 on: June 08, 2024, 07:20:28 PM »
It does not really matter. We chose a historical benchmark. But we never really had a long discussion about what is actually safe. +1,5C will be problematic in enough places and +2C is enough to be deadly in many areas and that is all using the current system.
 

Actually, this does matter, as how close we are to 1.5C currently has large policy implications, whether or not it "should" as you seem to imply.

For policy we are using the current system and we will keep doing that. It might not be 100% correct but at least it is consistently wrong which makes it an ok measuring stick for a relative temperature.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2648 on: June 09, 2024, 01:42:34 AM »
if we see a similar reversion to trend as post 2016 , temps might drop back to 1.4  ??

My money is on that exact situation.

1.5 C for the five year average by 2030.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2649 on: June 09, 2024, 12:25:15 PM »
if temps were .24 degrees cooler than we thought ..... then it follows that the temp rise is .24 greater than we thought ......for the same increase in GHG"s  ....... hence sensitivity is greater


Or did i miss something ?  ......always happy to be shown the error of my ways !!

Sensitivity is calculated by starting a model in an equilibrium state, which is got by running it for 100 years or so to check that nothing substantial is changing. Then CO2 is instantly increased by four times, and the model is run for another 100 years or so to see how much the temperature increases. Half that increase is the sensitivity.

If the starting equilibrium is not a realistic climate, then there's a problem with the model in general, and fixing it might move the sensitivity up a bit, up a lot, or even down a bit. There's plenty of reasons to think it might be higher, and this points vaguely in that direction too, but its far from conclusive.