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Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 393479 times)

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1750 on: May 13, 2018, 04:23:48 PM »
I want Daniel B.s magic powers that allows him to ignore statements like "The bottom line says of course there is warming in daytime, and in summer, and not just in winter and/or nighttime, an obvious result of warming driven by CO2 and other GHGs." My life would be much happier.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1751 on: May 13, 2018, 04:29:22 PM »
Yes Oren, that paper does support my claims that increasing temperatures are due much more to increased minimum temperatures, especially during the winter, and much less to maximum temperatures, especially in the summer.  With regards to the Arctic (one of my post you referenced), they state, "Practically all warming must be attributed to Tmin increase." 

Thank you for your supporting evidence.
I hate feeding, but for the protection of innocent readers again (if any such still exist in regards to certain posters): is this really what they state? I almost took your word for it. But then I checked.
Quote
Table 1. Assessment of changes in the temperature extremes and range for the diurnal cycle as published in the literature.
Reference: Tuomenvirta et al. (2000) ; Period and geographical area: 1910–1995; Greenland, Nordic Seas, Scandinavia ; Conclusions: Practically all warming must be attributed to Tmin increase
So, the paper says nothing of the sort. All it does is cite a reference that says this, and not in regards to the arctic but to certain northern locations, and using data 15 years older.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1752 on: May 13, 2018, 05:03:40 PM »
I'm not sure there is any permanent solution to troll infestations. This site does better than most because of all the highly informed posters who can present facts and research that lays out clearly the problems we are facing. I think this is the best approach.

I chose to set on ignore our current resident troll due to my becoming increasingly irritated by his nonsense. I'm not sure this is a solution as, if we all did this, his postings would go completely unaddressed. I also am not a proponent of banning posters. I must thus rely on all of you good, intelligent peoples to calmly, politely and succinctly, using research and data to tell him he is an _____ (fill in the blank)

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1753 on: May 13, 2018, 06:07:40 PM »
In the total absence of anthropogenic aerosols (air pollution from fossil fuels)  The earth will experience (median estimate) +0.8C of warming.

Currently there is a massive amount of residual warming locked in from historic emissions of GHGs.  This is determined by the Earth's energy imbalance which is now +0.9 Watts per meter-squared.  This energy is primarily being absorbed by the world's oceans and is equivalent to 600,000 Hiroshima bombs' worth of energy per day being absorbed.  This energy imbalance will not go away until surface temperatures have reached equilibrium.  Moderate estimates of climate sensitivity to this energy show that this means we have locked in an additional +0.7C of warming to equilibrium.

We are at 1.2C now + 0.8C (aerosols) + 0.7C (energy imbalance) = 2.7C

This does not include the 3C that the aerosols are currently cooling the Arctic
This does not include the 9C (Early Fall) warming that the Arctic will necessarily experience under the ice-free conditions that an additional 3C of warming (aerosols) and 30% (from 1980) sea ice volume loss that will occur in the absence of aerosols.

This does not include the carbon cycle feedbacks that recently published field-studies show will be much worse than the current models project.  This is significant especially WRT the Arctic, since the models do not include emissions from permafrost.

The difference between the actual carbon cycle emissions projected from the best science published in the last 2 years and the models working from data that is 10 years old is approximately +400GtC of emissions which is approximately 3/4th the total carbon emitted to the Earth's atmosphere by humans since 1880.

This additional emissions of carbon will likely produce at least 150 ppmv of CO2 into the earth's atmosphere between now and 2100

This figure of 150 ppmv of CO2 is a conservative estimate since it projects current carbon cycle land and ocean sinks to stay at their current rates but these carbon cycle sinks are (in the last 2 years) being observed to go into decline.

This does not include future human emissions of CO2 between now and when we stop (including land-use changes).

The additional 150 ppmv of CO2 from carbon cycle emissions will raise the earth's temperature by an additional 0.8C (forcing and warming of atmospheric CO2 follows a logarithmic, not a linear scale).

So, in the absence of ANY future CO2 emissions from humans (if we all magically stopped burning fossil fuels today we would:

Experience a massive shift of warming and circulation changes (PDO, ENSO, AMO, Amazon and Pacific tropical rainfall patters, monsoon shifts, Arctic regional warming) within 7 years
We would also experience a complete loss of Arctic sea ice within 2 years

The Earth's surface temperature would rise by 60% of the additional warming from aerosols and energy imbalances (combined total +1.5C) = +0.9C by 2030.  Yielding a globally averaged surface temperature of 2.1C.

By 2100 the majority of this full warming will be achieved plus Arctic regional warming from albedo decreases and carbon cycle feedbacks producing a globally averaged warming of 3.6C.

By 2200 the full carbon cycle emissions from melting permafrost and equilibrium temperature will be close to achieved with a warming above pre-industrial of >4.5C.

Without any further human emissions of CO2 and land use changes.
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magnamentis

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1754 on: May 13, 2018, 11:02:14 PM »
Yes Oren, that paper does support my claims that increasing temperatures are due much more to increased minimum temperatures, especially during the winter, and much less to maximum temperatures, especially in the summer.  With regards to the Arctic (one of my post you referenced), they state, "Practically all warming must be attributed to Tmin increase." 

Thank you for your supporting evidence.

without knowing too much on the matter i'd say you're right that minima get faster higher and maxima raise more moderately.

what i can't see what that would matter when we observe that the planet is warming up. even if minima would (in theory) reach the level of current maxima and maxima would remain on current levels we would face global warming and all it's effects, hence as far as i can see with my limited knowledge of course, this discussion whether it's the minima or both that contribute more to global warming is useless when it comes to debates about solutions.

or in short, what's the point and i promise to listen to your reply ;)
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Daniel B.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1755 on: May 13, 2018, 11:23:46 PM »
Yes Oren, that paper does support my claims that increasing temperatures are due much more to increased minimum temperatures, especially during the winter, and much less to maximum temperatures, especially in the summer.  With regards to the Arctic (one of my post you referenced), they state, "Practically all warming must be attributed to Tmin increase." 

Thank you for your supporting evidence.

without knowing too much on the matter i'd say you're right that minima get faster higher and maxima raise more moderately.

what i can't see what that would matter when we observe that the planet is warming up. even if minima would (in theory) reach the level of current maxima and maxima would remain on current levels we would face global warming and all it's effects, hence as far as i can see with my limited knowledge of course, this discussion whether it's the minima or both that contribute more to global warming is useless when it comes to debates about solutions.

or in short, what's the point and i promise to listen to your reply ;)

As far as the overall temperature rise, it is immaterial.  The average global temperature will be the same whether it is entirely the minimum rising, maximum, or equally split.  Where it may make a difference is assessing heat waves, and whether we can expect any change in the future; either more or less.

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1756 on: May 13, 2018, 11:46:11 PM »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

bbr2314

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1757 on: May 13, 2018, 11:57:06 PM »
in the future?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/increased-extreme-heat-and-heat-waves
Looks like a cooling signal is becoming more pronounced across the lower edge of the Canadian Shield...


Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1759 on: May 14, 2018, 04:05:14 PM »
Thank you jai. Disturbing but informative. Given the mass of the oceans and its ability to absorb energy relative to the atmosphere, could it serve as the earth's air conditioner for some time? Sure, the warming at depth will alter the ocean food chain but, if we continue to use surface temperature as the prime measure of global warming, (foolish in my opinion) would this delay the final day of reckoning under near BAU conditions by slowing surface temperature rise?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1760 on: May 14, 2018, 04:08:08 PM »
in the future?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/increased-extreme-heat-and-heat-waves
Looks like a cooling signal is becoming more pronounced across the lower edge of the Canadian Shield...

The last two ice sheets (Greenland and the Antarctic) will persist and become prominent features in a drastically warming world and their influence on the surrounding regions will serve as a last refuge for life on a dying planet.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1761 on: May 14, 2018, 04:11:43 PM »
in the future?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/increased-extreme-heat-and-heat-waves

Hmmmmm.....

Seems pretty straightforward. As global mean temperatures rise, we see peak temperatures rise with them. Pesky thing.....facts and data.

BenB

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1762 on: May 14, 2018, 05:04:40 PM »
I'm not sure there's anything very controversial about the max/min temperature issue:

On average, daily minimum temperatures are rising faster than daily maximums, and winter temperatures are rising faster than summer ones, and this is reflected in record-breaking temperatures - we are breaking more "high minimum" temperature records than "high maximum" records. However, both maximums and minimums are rising, and we are setting more "high maximum" than "low maximum" records, again indicative of rising maximum temperatures. This is a slightly separate issue from the question of extreme weather events, and the extent to which they are becoming more common.

oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1763 on: May 14, 2018, 08:58:40 PM »
in the future?
Yes.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures
No. Just read your own link.
Quote
Key Points
Heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe heat waves in the U.S. historical record (see Figure 1). The spike in Figure 1 reflects extreme, persistent heat waves in the Great Plains region during a period known as the “Dust Bowl.” Poor land use practices and many years of intense drought contributed to these heat waves by depleting soil moisture and reducing the moderating effects of evaporation.
Nationwide, unusually hot summer days (highs) have become more common over the last few decades (see Figure 2). The occurrence of unusually hot summer nights (lows) has increased at an even faster rate. This trend indicates less “cooling off” at night.
The 20th century had many winters with widespread patterns of unusually low temperatures, including a particularly large spike in the late 1970s (see Figure 3). Since the 1980s, though, unusually cold winter temperatures have become less common—particularly very cold nights (lows).
The two maps show where changes in the number of days with unusually hot (above the 95th percentile) and cold (below the 5th percentile) days have occurred since 1948. Unusually high temperatures have increased in the western United States and in several areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, but decreased in much of the middle of the country (see Figure 4). The number of unusually cold days has generally decreased throughout the country, particularly in the western United States (see Figure 5).
If the climate were completely stable, one might expect to see highs and lows each accounting for about 50 percent of the records set. Since the 1970s, however, record-setting daily high temperatures have become more common than record lows across the United States (see Figure 6). The most recent decade had twice as many record highs as record lows.
Combining data from the Dust Bowl period and recent decades is very misleading. The dust bowl happened primarily due to man-made mistakes which vastly aggravated a not uncommon drought.
Ignoring that period, the warming signal is very much pronounced, as stated in the key points above.

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1764 on: May 14, 2018, 09:42:37 PM »
Shared,

Re: Oceans,

The timelines in my writing take those delayed impacts into account.  If we stopped all emissions today the equilibrium temperature won't be reached until after 2200.  However, there is more than enough locked in warming to ensure that that final temperature is greater than 4.5C above pre-industrial and the near term impacts of loss of aerosol cooling and arctic albedo/carbon cycle emissions will ensure that we cross 2C before 2030 (especially if China works diligently to reduce their air pollution).
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My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Daniel B.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1765 on: May 14, 2018, 10:14:05 PM »
in the future?
Yes.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures
No. Just read your own link.
Quote
Key Points
Heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe heat waves in the U.S. historical record (see Figure 1). The spike in Figure 1 reflects extreme, persistent heat waves in the Great Plains region during a period known as the “Dust Bowl.” Poor land use practices and many years of intense drought contributed to these heat waves by depleting soil moisture and reducing the moderating effects of evaporation.
Nationwide, unusually hot summer days (highs) have become more common over the last few decades (see Figure 2). The occurrence of unusually hot summer nights (lows) has increased at an even faster rate. This trend indicates less “cooling off” at night.
The 20th century had many winters with widespread patterns of unusually low temperatures, including a particularly large spike in the late 1970s (see Figure 3). Since the 1980s, though, unusually cold winter temperatures have become less common—particularly very cold nights (lows).
The two maps show where changes in the number of days with unusually hot (above the 95th percentile) and cold (below the 5th percentile) days have occurred since 1948. Unusually high temperatures have increased in the western United States and in several areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, but decreased in much of the middle of the country (see Figure 4). The number of unusually cold days has generally decreased throughout the country, particularly in the western United States (see Figure 5).
If the climate were completely stable, one might expect to see highs and lows each accounting for about 50 percent of the records set. Since the 1970s, however, record-setting daily high temperatures have become more common than record lows across the United States (see Figure 6). The most recent decade had twice as many record highs as record lows.
Combining data from the Dust Bowl period and recent decades is very misleading. The dust bowl happened primarily due to man-made mistakes which vastly aggravated a not uncommon drought.
Ignoring that period, the warming signal is very much pronounced, as stated in the key points above.

And the recent period is not man-made?  Sure, ignoring some of the data will get you the trend you seek, but is it honest and accurate?

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1766 on: May 14, 2018, 11:24:39 PM »
April 2018 was tied for 3rd warmest on JMA’s release.  Notice the 5-year running mean has been above the linear trend for 20+ years. 

Michael Hauber

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1767 on: May 15, 2018, 07:47:13 AM »
Although the fact that winters are warming up faster than summers may be good news from a human comfort point of view, nights warming faster than days is not.  Warm temps at night are a major contribution to health risks from heatwaves - the human body needs its recovery time in a cooler night and not getting as much is dangerous.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

ASILurker

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1768 on: May 15, 2018, 08:14:27 AM »
Although the fact that winters are warming up faster than summers may be good news from a human comfort point of view, nights warming faster than days is not.  Warm temps at night are a major contribution to health risks from heatwaves - the human body needs its recovery time in a cooler night and not getting as much is dangerous.

And daily minimum temps are triggers for all kinds of biosphere life be it moving into a rest phase or waking up from one. Daily plant growth is directly related to day and night temperatures. An extended shift in either will effect every life form that's impacted by these temps. It's unscientific and illogical to assume higher increases in nighttime temps is no big deal on the basis it makes human life more cosy or reduces FF use for heating at night.

BenB

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1769 on: May 15, 2018, 12:17:05 PM »
On the question of whether warmer winters/nights are good, in many places cold winters help to kill off all kinds of nasty critters, maintaining the fragile balance that exists in all ecosystems. They also act as triggers for plants and animals, in the same way that daily minima do. If you upset this, the consequences are hard to predict, but in certain places they are likely to be catastrophic. Some people and places may benefit, but the general consensus is that if change is too quick, it's difficult for ecosystems to adjust, and hence the average impact will almost certainly be detrimental.

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1770 on: May 15, 2018, 01:13:21 PM »
Wolfpack513
Quote
April 2018 was tied for 3rd warmest on JMA’s release.  Notice the 5-year running mean has been above the linear trend for 20+ years. 

To say it a different way...... we have slowly been entering the next phase UP in temperatures over the past 20+ years.

I showed the same post as this about a year ago (without the 2017 years results).  The underlying fundamentals are worsening:  More ice melting, more heat being absorbed by the oceans, more CO2 being emitted......rinse and repeat.

The night time temperatures going up at a faster rate than the day time temps is of little comfort to me...... and clearly of little comfort to mother earth.

On this chart I have drawn in a new, accelerated "channel" which I expect to provide a better approximation of where we are headed over the next 5 - 10 years (in black).

As well ...... I have circled in GREEN the short term LOWS in the 5 year average blue line.  Again ..... you can see where we are headed.  Facts and truth really are stubborn little guys that never go away.

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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1771 on: May 15, 2018, 01:33:40 PM »
And of course ...... if the air temperatures have been rising at a HIGHER RATE..... guess what happens to melting?

Yes.... it goes up at a FASTER RATE AS WELL.  Unless you are a Republican senate candidate in Florida..... and then you just IGNORE IT (Right Rick Scott?).

http://climateadaptation.hawaii.gov/sea-level-rise/
« Last Edit: May 15, 2018, 03:43:12 PM by Buddy »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1772 on: May 15, 2018, 03:38:13 PM »
I believe they passed a law in North Carolina that prohibited the seas from rising faster than the average annual increase for the last century so no problem there.

Oh...wait. Just checked. The law simply said they couldn't talk about accelerating sea level rise nor use it in any planning efforts to accommodate it.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1773 on: May 16, 2018, 06:15:10 PM »
GISS LOTI came in lower than expected for April: +0.86°C.  On NCEP reanalysis it was one of the warmest(anomaly) of the last 12 months but it was down from March’s +0.88°C. 

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1774 on: May 16, 2018, 07:34:15 PM »
While the absolute anomaly was lower for April it was the third warmest April on record. March on the other hand was the sixth warmest on record.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1775 on: May 17, 2018, 06:51:49 AM »
Remember when the deniers obsessed over "the pause."  The running 12-month average has been above the long term trend since the start of this century.  After 2 weak/moderate La Niñas the running 12-month average is just now approaching the 30-year linear trend. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1776 on: May 23, 2018, 01:31:22 AM »
Katharine Hayhoe:  “The ‘global temperature’ blanket is becoming quite a thing in knitting and crochet circles!”

https://twitter.com/khayhoe/status/998913157426008064
Images below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.