Global Surface Air Temperatures

[James Lovejoy]

Nick Stokes' June anomaly is now in through June 25.

The anomaly is now at 0.207.  If this keeps up, we can expect the 2nd warmest June on record.

Keep in mind that there are 5 more days, that the last 11 plus days have been below 0.207, and that there is probably a +/- 0.10 between Nick Stokes' anomaly plus the GISS anomaly, and what actually happens.

(Translation, take with liberal amounts of salt.)

[Rubikscube]

The latest daily AMSU temp (June 27th) sets an all time record for any date. Though, it is to be said that this reading is from ch06 which measures temps at 7,5km (25 000 ft) altitude as neither ch04 or ch05 are reporting anymore. Don't know how much you should put into these numbers, but they have previously proven to be a good indicator of the monthly UAH temps at least.

https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl

[deep octopus]

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis figures through the 29th of June suggest that June 2015 may not be a record warmest, but it should prove to be one of the warmest (maybe the top 5.) It's usually hard to tell with the months of June and July just how the reanalysis data will stack with the observed data. The deviation is more noticeable during this time when comparing it with NASA GISS, for instance. Still, this year is well on track to be the warmest on record. El Niño is menacing the world over as it appears to be shifting out of moderate strength and into the "strong" category with Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies straddling the 1.5 C threshold; and also as a very intense westerly wind burst (WWB) is underway with twin cyclones mirroring one another about the equatorial axis.

All-time and all-month temperature records have been set in parts of North America, Europe, and South America as dangerous heatwaves have built in those regions.

[James Lovejoy]

In May I did a projection using Nick Stokes' May '94-2013 anomalies vs NASA GISS.  My result was an unimpressive 0.07 off of actual GISS results.  Which global temperature data series should I use for better results?

BTW, for what it's worth (not much), the same methodology would yield 0.7145C anomaly.  Putting it at since records were kept.  Again, only slightly better than rolling the dice.  I'd appreciate any recommendations for increasing accuracy.

[BornFromTheVoid]

4th warmest June according to the ncep reanalysis data. The top 8 are within 0.1C of each other though.

Top 10

2013:  15.93
2005:  15.907
1998:  15.906
2015:  15.886
2012:  15.875
2010:  15.851
2007:  15.836
2011:  15.835
2006:  15.828
2014:  15.811

[Tor Bejnar]

BFTV,
Do you mean 'within 0.1C of each other'?
#1=2013=15.93
#8=2011=15.835
15.930-15.835=0.095

Each of the top ten is within 0.024C of their neighbor.  How close must two bits of data be for their difference to be considered not statistically relevant?

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV,
Do you mean 'within 0.1C of each other'?
#1=2013=15.93
#8=2011=15.835
15.930-15.835=0.095

Each of the top ten is within 0.024C of their neighbor.  How close must two bits of data be for their difference to be considered not statistically relevant?

Yeah, I meant 0.1C. Will edit my post.

I'm not sure what the error margins are for the reanalysis data, but I doubt it's less than 0.1C.

[Lord M Vader]

From Nick Stokes june value of +0,204^oC, there are some similarities between January 2014, March2014, December 2014 and January 2015. These months produced an anomaly according  to NASA being:
0,69
0,71
0,73
0,75

It seems very plausible to me that the June value is roughly 0,70^oC. This would put June 2015 to be the second warmest June, only trailing 1998. The second warmest June right now is from 2006 which saw an anomaly of +0,65^oC.

Given the current El Niño strengthening I find it very likely that June 2015 is the second warmest June on record! I won't be surprised if June 2016 will be even hotter...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Warmest June on record according to the JMA



1st. 2015 (+0.41°C)
2nd. 2014 (+0.33°C)
3rd. 2010, 1998 (+0.26°C)
5th. 2012 (+0.22°C)

[wili]

Nice work, bftv. I posted this at various places and pass on others thanks for it to you.

I don't see, with this and with the big El Nino apparently baked, how we could possibly not break a record for global annual temperature this year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Joint warmest June on record with 1998 at +0.76C according to the GISS.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt.

[Lord M Vader]

BFTV: have you noticd the bizarre change in the NASA GISS numbers for different months? January 2007 for example is now up to +0,98^oC(!). And the global average for 2014 is up from +0,68^oC to +0,75^oC(!) That's a HUGE difference! What the heck are they doing at NASA???

//LMV

[Wipneus]

LMV:

News

2015-07-15: Please note that the input ERSST sea surface temperature data provided by NOAA has changed from version 3b to version 4. Further details in the Update to Analysis.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v3/

[Shared Humanity]

Joint warmest June on record with 1998 at +0.76C according to the GISS.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt.

4 degree temperature anomaly over the Yamal Peninsula.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd say the chances of recording the first month with a >1.0C anomaly with GISS are quite high this year, most likely in Autumn.

[plinius]

I'd say the chances of recording the first month with a >1.0C anomaly with GISS are quite high this year, most likely in Autumn.

Potentially September, though I would expect the temperature maximum round Jan/Feb/Mar/. We are coming from a higher baseline in ENSO than in the 1997/98 event, but that year only went to 0.63 in the same fall, peaking at 0.87 in Feb. With that background and looking at last year, we can expect values at 0.9x, but 1.x would be quite a leap.

[Steven]

Joint warmest June on record with 1998 at +0.76C according to the GISS.

There was a revision today:

2015-07-19: Closer inspection showed that there was a bug in the ERSST v4 part of the automated update of the ocean data files. The temperature analysis was repeated based on a separate manual construction of the basic ERSST v4 file (SBBX.ERSSTv4). We'd like to acknowledge and thank Nick Stokes for noticing that there might be a problem with the data made public on 2015-07-15. All data and displays were corrected and replaced on the public site today.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cheers. That makes June 2015 the warmest on record.

Top 5

1st: 2015: +0.80C
2nd: 1998: +0.77C
3rd: 2009: +0.67C
4th: 2005, 2014:+0.66C

And the year to date.

1st: 2015: +0.82C
2nd: 2010: +0.78C
3rd: 2007: +0.73C
4th: 2014: +0.72C
5th: 1998: +0.71C

An anomaly of just +0.70C for the next 6 months is needed for a new record. The lowest so far this year has been +0.74C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

At 0.88C above the 20th century average, June 2015 is the warmest on record by 0.12C according to the NCDC. It's also the warmest year to date, and the warmest 12 months on record.

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506

[James Lovejoy]

We are in the last week of July.  Nick Stoke's global surface temperature anomaly through July 25th is 0.141 above the '94-2013 averages.  There is a fair amount of uncertainy trying to extrapolate to the July anomaly.  The central value is for a July '51-'80 anomaly of 0.641.  If this is even close, there are two conclusions.  (1)  The string of hotest for the month in recorded history comes to an end.  (2) The string of hotest 12 months in recorded history will continue.

Warning:  Take with large amount of salt.  We have another 6 days to go, and that can change the results.  Also, in the past, missing stations have resulted in rather big changes.  So results are only preliminary and subject to change.

[wili]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730324-200-earth-now-halfway-to-un-global-warming-limit/

Earth now halfway to UN global warming limit

IT’S the outcome the world wants to avoid, but we are already halfway there. All but one of the main trackers of global surface temperature are now passing more than 1 °C of warming relative to the second half of the 19th century...

[James Lovejoy]

Nick Stokes has updated his surface temperature anomaly thru July 30th.  The anomaly '94-2013 is 0.160 C.  That works out to a central value of 4th hottest July, and continue the series of the last 12 months being the hottest on record.   There is +- 0.10 which can change results, in addition, late reporting of stations can change results, so take it as it is, preliminary results only.

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the ncep reanalysis data, July 2015 was the 5th warmest on record.

2011: 16.198
2009: 16.192
1998: 16.151
2005: 16.148
2015: 16.124



The year to date is the 2nd warmest on record.

2010: 14.407
2015: 14.372
2007: 14.371
2005: 14.361
2014: 14.32

[James Lovejoy]

Data for early August.

Nick Stokes's data thru Aug 10th is in.  It gives an August anomaly of 0.297 C vs base years 1994-2013.

If this continued through August it would be approximately a 0.80 C anomaly vs '51-'80 base period, and would be the hottest August since records began.

Obviously temperature anomalies for the rest of August could change things drastically.  This is only for a look at what is happening now in global temperatures.

[BornFromTheVoid]

July 2015 was the warmest on record according to the JMA, and by quite a margin.



1st. 2015 (+0.38°C)
2nd. 1998 (+0.30°C)
3rd. 2014 (+0.28°C)
4th. 2010, 2005 (+0.24°C)

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS agree with the JMA and have July 2015 as the warmest on record at +0.75C.

2015: +0.75C
2011: +0.74C
2009: +0.72C
1998: +0.71C
2005: +0.66C




EDIT: The year to date.

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the GISS data, for 1997, September, October, November and December were +0.07C, +0.16C, +0.19C and +0.12C, respectively, warmer than any month before.
If we managed the same this year, the anomalies would be +0.96C, +1.01C, +0.99C and +0.90C, and would almost certainly beat last years record annual temperature by over 0.1C.

[Sigmetnow]

Hottest July On Record Keeps 2015 On Track To Crush 2014 For Hottest Year

NASA reports this was the hottest July on record. So we are now in “bet the mortgage” territory that 2015 will be the hottest year in NASA’s 125-year temperature record.
In fact, 2015 is likely to crush the previous record — 2014 — probably by a wide margin, especially since one of the strongest El Niños in 50 years is adding to the strong underlying global warming trend.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/14/3691940/hottest-july-hottest-year-record/

[Sigmetnow]

More data:

Watching the global thermometer - year to date GISTemp with July 2015
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/08/watching-global-thermometer-year-to.html

[Sigmetnow]

Analysis by Tamino.

Hottest Month

Now that NASA has released their data updated through July, we know that in that data set, this July was the hottest July on record with a temperature anomaly of 0.75 deg.C, i.e. it was 0.75 deg.C above “climatology” (which is what’s usual for the given month). It’s not the hottest temperature anomaly in the data set, however; that record still belongs to January 2007, at 0.96 deg.C above climatology.

Yet it does seem that this July, while not the hottest temperature anomaly on record, is the hottest month on record.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/08/15/hottest-month/

[Lord M Vader]

It is still about 2 weeks to go until August 2015 is ended but so far this month the average temp according to Nick Stokes(?) page at http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#webgl is a stunning 0,309^oC above normal for 1994-2013(!). If this number holds through the rest of the month we should be in serious trouble as it would likely mean that August 2015 by far will be the warmest August on record, smashing the previous record from 2014...

//LMV

[BornFromTheVoid]

Warmest month on record and warmest year to date, according to the latest NCDC SOTC report.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201507

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2015 was the highest for July in the 136-year period of record, at 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.08°C (0.14°F). As July is climatologically the warmest month of the year globally, this monthly global temperature of 16.61°C (61.86°F) was also the highest among all 1627 months in the record that began in January 1880. The July temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.65°C (1.17°F) per century.

The first seven months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C (0.16°F). Five months this year, including the past three, have been record warm for their respective months. January was the second warmest January on record and April third warmest.

[James Lovejoy]

Satellite temperatures also higher than 2014.

https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl?r=003


I don't give satellite temperatures that much weight, but they can give an idea of how this year is doing relative to last year.  And this August's temperature, so far, is significantly higher than August 2014.

[Sleepy]

Spencer would probably have used 2010 as comparison instead of 2014.

[jai mitchell]

UAH has revised their methodologies, I suspect to reduce the impact (bleeding) of middle troposphere readings into their lower troposphere results.  These have resulted in overall lower TLT temperatures in the UAH series during non El Nino years but has significantly increased temperatures during El Nino years as the relative height of the Lower Troposphere increased during this period in the tropics.

They want, quite desperately, to ensure the "pause" talking point during this El Nino year.

[Lord M Vader]

With only 9 days left for Nick Stokes page there are increasingly more hints that August 2015 literally will SMASH the previous record(!!!) The question is of course how reliable these indications are.

For the period August 1-22 the anomalies relative 1994-2013 is an astonishing +0,333^oC!!!

//LMV

[deep octopus]

With only 9 days left for Nick Stokes page there are increasingly more hints that August 2015 literally will SMASH the previous record(!!!) The question is of course how reliable these indications are.

For the period August 1-22 the anomalies relative 1994-2013 is an astonishing +0,333^oC!!!

//LMV

Agree. I'm looking at the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis myself, and the month-to-date info is pointing to about a 0.1 C rise from 2014. Could mean the strongest anomaly of 2015 so far is printed in August (maybe 0.9 C in GISS.) Heading into autumn with the start of September, when the anomalies have traditionally been more aggressive, 2015 is looking like it will obliterate 2014 for the hottest year on record. Indications of a record El Niño (though even just failing that, it looks to at least be very strong by year's end) are priming the rest of 2015 and the start of 2016 for some scary times.

[plinius]

UAH has revised their methodologies, I suspect to reduce the impact (bleeding) of middle troposphere readings into their lower troposphere results.  These have resulted in overall lower TLT temperatures in the UAH series during non El Nino years but has significantly increased temperatures during El Nino years as the relative height of the Lower Troposphere increased during this period in the tropics.

They want, quite desperately, to ensure the "pause" talking point during this El Nino year.

Jai, I do not know, which change you address precisely, but the last one was actually UP. So, the main effect for them is to get rid of the stronger heating surface and to get more contamination from the cooling stratosphere (please remember that no satellite/limb sounding actually probes just the claimed altitude, but a very broad distribution of altitudes that peaks in weight near its lower rim). After all they enjoy with that a smaller overall temperature trend, and indeed as a side effect a different impact by ENSO.

[jai mitchell]

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/V6-vs-v5.6-LT-1979-Mar2015.gif

[Csnavywx]

Thanks Jai. I was going to post something on it, but that pretty much says it all. Definite shift down.

[AbruptSLR]

The linked SkS article and associated image proposes to track our movement towards the IPCC 2C limit; however, the 30-year straight line projection ignore both the facts that:
(a) we have just left a hiatus period so the linear tend line is likely biased on the low side,
(b) the increase in global mean temperature trend should be a non-linear curve and not a linear extrapolation; and
(c) the Cowtan & Way corrections have not been applied to the data:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2c-2015-07.html

Extract: "With that in mind, I'm creating a very simple naming convention so that people can always find the latest data. The URL will always start with, of course, skepticalscience.com. Then if you ever want to find the latest update just add: /2c-[YYYY]-[MM].html. So, for instance, this post is: 2c-2015-07 for July 2015.
The main chart image will always reside at: skepticalscience.com//pics/2c-[YYYY]-[MM].png"

[Lord M Vader]

Huge drop in global temps today. Down to +0,195 according to Nick Stokes. Let's see if this is just a temporarily blip down or a more persistent pattern with lower temps or not.

//LMV

[plinius]

cold spell in antarctica, that's all. Will probably pass in a couple of days, rest of globe hardly changes.

[James Lovejoy]

The global temperature from satellites is in through August 30th.  Again, I have reservations about the satellite temperature record, but the comparison of this year's data with last years can give some indication of August's temperature.

August 2015 has been significantly hotter than August 2014 for almost all the month.  It now appears very likely that 2015 will see the hottest August since records began.   I'm looking forward to official announcements to see if my guess is correct or not.

https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl?r=003

[Sigmetnow]

Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record 'by a mile', experts say

Even though there are still several months left in the year to gather temperature readings from around the world, climate researchers believe nothing short of a Krakatoa-sized volcanic eruption that cuts out sunlight for months on end can now stop last year’s record being beaten.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-2015-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-by-a-mile-experts-say-10477138.html

[James Lovejoy]

August may be the hottest on record.  2014 August (GISS) had an anomaly of 0.81 C.  August 2015 may have exceeded that.

From Moyhu:

Here are the results for the Moyhu NCEP/NCAR reanalysis index for August. It looked for a while to be a record breaking month, with steady warmth. But then there was a sudden late cool spell, apparently mostly Antarctica, and then an equally sudden recovery to warmth. The end result was 0.306°C, a big rise from July's 0.164. That is just slightly cooler (in this record) than May 2014 at 0.315°C. But it is the warmest for 2015 so far.

It makes a slight difference month-month what anomaly base period is used, and so the Moyhu table gives results also on the 1951-80 base (gor GISS) and 1961-90 (NOAA Mlost). So the comparable GISS-base number would be 0.87°C. But as mentioned in earlier posts, the NCEP index, being air temperature, has been running rather cool relative to the land/ocean indices which using the warm current SST. So I would not be surprised if GISS were even higher - maybe even 0.9°C. The record GISS anomaly is Jan 2007 at 0.96°C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the NCEP reanalysis data, August 2015 was the warmest on record by 0.08C.



2015   16.149
2014   16.069
2012   16.039
2003   16.021
2013   16.012

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the GISS, August 2015 was the 2nd warmest on record after 2014.

Top 5

2014   0.82C
2015   0.81C
2011   0.74C
2006   0.71C
1998   0.69C

Warmest summer on record

Top 5

2015   0.78C
1998   0.72C
2009   0.69C
2011   0.69C
2014   0.69C

The last 4 months of this year would need to be quite a bit cooler than the average of the last 10 years to avoid the warmest year on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

JMA reporting in now. They have August 2015 as the warmest on record by a huge margin (as far as records go), at +0.45C above the 81-10 average, and +0.12C higher than the previous record set last year.



Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2015 (+0.45°C),
2nd. 2014 (+0.33°C),
3rd. 1998 (+0.28°C),
4th. 2013, 2012, 2009 (+0.23°C)


At +0.42C, this summer is also the warmest on record, +0.1C above the previous record set last year.



1st. 2015 (+0.42°C),
2nd. 2014 (+0.32°C),
3rd. 1998 (+0.28°C),
4th. 2012, 2010 (+0.23°C)

[Lord M Vader]

What I find mot remarkable is the huge difference between NASA and JMA wrt global temperature anomalies during August!! JMA calculations showed that August 2015 smashed the previous record from ladt years August. OTOH, NASA showed that August 2014 was marginally warmer (+0,01^oC)

With this result the report from NOAA, most likely by next week, will be extremely interesting!

/LMV