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plinius

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #650 on: December 16, 2015, 12:38:33 AM »
BFTV,
a) The one that started in the 1940's and ended before 1980? Or the one that started in the 1880's and ended in the 1930's?  ;D
b) It is interesting looking for the two-year periods (nothing to do with climate) where the 12-month rolling average changes very little.

To a) btw. the 1940s spike is with all likelihood an artifact caused by the altered ship data during world war II. Which is why the spike covers exactly those years. See this essay:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2015/20150824_GlobalTemperatureUpdate.pdf

To b) This is red noise and quasi-periods caused by the length of the moving average. Always fascinating how it fools the eye. You will be prone to see periods of 2, 4, 6, etc. years. Most notable occurences: Poor fooled people who believe in 60 year periods on 30year smoothed datasets (they call themselves skepticists), and some astrophysicists who saw pseudo-oscillations in solar flares.

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #651 on: December 16, 2015, 10:00:09 PM »
BFV

Yes, the "Pause" is located between 1946 and 1977.   Isn't it interesting how a relatively small reduction (as a percent of global) aerosol emissions sparked the post 1978 warming trend?

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plinius

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #652 on: December 16, 2015, 10:04:43 PM »
The important thing is not the reduction, but the difference in trend. Before 1980 the (mostly anthropogenic) aerosols compensated for the methane and CO2 warming effects. After that, the CO2 levels rose further, while we held the SO2 emissions nearly constant globally (shifting the emitting regions of course).

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #653 on: December 17, 2015, 12:56:56 PM »
UKMO's annual global temp. forecast: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/global-temperature

Looks like they expect it to be the 3rd record in a row, or thereabouts.

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #654 on: December 17, 2015, 08:37:06 PM »
I was always curious about "other countries temperatures".  In the US....there are many charts floating around over the past several years that show the "ratio of new record high temperatures....to new record low temperatures."  In the US.....the ratio is now up to 1.73 for THIS DECADE (1.73 new daily record high temperature records set.....for every 1.0 new record daily low temperature set).

But I was curious about Russia...Brazil....maybe Australia.  So I have started a "little project" and I have now added Russia (from 1960 up to today....I will add 1930 - 1960 when I get a break from my "Santa duties".

But when I prepared the spreadsheet and power point page......my jaw kind of "hit the floor".  The ratio of new record highs to new record lows in Russia is MUCH GREATER than that of the US.

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3668502585335462792#editor/target=post;postID=8771945001454361017;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=11;src=postname

Of course....my first thought is that Russia has a lot more permafrost.....melting permafrost at that....and that might be the culprit that creates many more new record highs to new record lows.  But I must say...it was a bit "disconcerting" to me.

I will likely be "combining" both the Russia chart and the US chart onto one chart in the near future.  As well....I will be doing a chart for Brazil and Australia in the next couple of weeks as well.

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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #655 on: December 18, 2015, 05:08:08 AM »
Nick Stoke's anomaly of 1994-2013 through December 15 is 0.755, if you add in Karsten Haustien's NCEP forecasts through the 24th, the anomaly falls to 0.617, which is still greater than October and November's anomaly, and would, if it continued to the end of the month, not only result in the warmest December in the temperature record, but the highest anomaly ever.  Right now, the warmest December ever   since records have been kept is extremely likely, and it's almost certainly going to be the warmest year since records have been kept.

Seumas

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #656 on: December 18, 2015, 04:40:22 PM »
But when I prepared the spreadsheet and power point page......my jaw kind of "hit the floor".  The ratio of new record highs to new record lows in Russia is MUCH GREATER than that of the US.

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3668502585335462792#editor/target=post;postID=8771945001454361017;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=11;src=postname


I'm afraid that link doesn't work for me. It looks like it's a link that will only work for you logged in. Could you try creating the link from another browser that isn't logged in?

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #657 on: December 18, 2015, 07:53:32 PM »
Sorry about that....my bad.  This should work:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-high-temps-to-new_36.html

You can see from the first chart of the US....vs the second chart of Russia...that Russia has almost TWICE the ratio of new record daily highs to new daily record lows.  I guess I was NOT expecting that it would be so much greater than the US.

Also....keep in mind....that the variability WITHIN a decade can be substantial.  For instance....the US ratio was 3.0 to 1.0 if you would have measured it at the end of the FIRST THREE YEARS OF THIS DECADE.  But 2013 and 2014 were "cool years" in the US....and the ratio has dropped.

This chart shows the variability within the US over the past couple decades BY YEAR:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-daily-record-high-temps-to_30.html

 
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #658 on: December 18, 2015, 08:05:21 PM »
NOAA has published its State of the Climate - Global Nov 2015.

NOAA's figures vary slightly from NASA, but agree with both NASA and Japan Met, in finding November the Warmest in the history of temperature records, with the fall season, and year to date also being the warmest in recorded history, all by a significant margin.

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2015 was the highest for November in the 136-year period of record, at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F), breaking the previous record of 2013 by 0.15°C (0.27°F). This marks the seventh consecutive month that a monthly global temperature record has been broken. The temperature departure from average for November is also the second highest among all months in the 136-year period of record. The highest departure of 0.99°C (1.79°F) occurred last month.

The September–November seasonal temperature was 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). This marks the highest departure from average for the season in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.21°C (0.38°F).

The first 11 months of 2015 were the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.14°C (0.25°F). Nine of the first eleven months in 2015 have been record warm for their respective months, with January second warmest for January and April third warmest.

Other details on NOAA's report are at  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201511


AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #659 on: December 21, 2015, 08:24:41 PM »
While this is old news, I do like the format that SkS uses to compare the 12-month running average, and 30-year linear trend through the end of Nov 2015.  While it is pleasant to believe/hope that the trend will remain linear, I am concerned that the closer that we get to the 2C limit, the more likely that this trend will become non-linear.  Also, as at the end of Nov 2015 we were at 1.095C, I believe that it is highly likely that by the end of 2015 we will be over 1.1C
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #660 on: December 21, 2015, 09:09:35 PM »
If I mix CO2 en temperature, that give that...

Well, no scientific validity but I do think at some point the temp will match the inflexion that we see on the CO2 and then things should accelerate... dramatically...
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 09:15:19 PM by Laurent »

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #661 on: December 21, 2015, 09:46:00 PM »
If I mix CO2 en temperature, that give that...

Well, no scientific validity but I do think at some point the temp will match the inflexion that we see on the CO2 and then things should accelerate... dramatically...

While I certainly expect the warming to accelerate dramatically, I would be shocked to see the increase in temperature to come anywhere close to the slope of the increase in CO2, unless of course, we finally get serious about emissions. I think what we are seeing in the ever widening gap between CO2 and temperature increase is exactly what we should expect. This gap is essentially demonstrating how the CO2 increases are locking in temperature increases for perhaps hundreds of years.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #662 on: December 21, 2015, 09:59:58 PM »
If I mix CO2 en temperature, that give that...

Well, no scientific validity but I do think at some point the temp will match the inflexion that we see on the CO2 and then things should accelerate... dramatically...

While I certainly expect the warming to accelerate dramatically, I would be shocked to see the increase in temperature to come anywhere close to the slope of the increase in CO2, unless of course, we finally get serious about emissions. I think what we are seeing in the ever widening gap between CO2 and temperature increase is exactly what we should expect. This gap is essentially demonstrating how the CO2 increases are locking in temperature increases for perhaps hundreds of years.

While growth of atmospheric CO2 concentration only cause logarithmic changes in temperatures, the linked article explains why we should still be concerned:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/C02-emissions-vs-Temperature-growth.html
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #663 on: December 22, 2015, 01:40:41 AM »
Nick Stoke's anomaly of 1994-2013 through December 19 is 0.673, if you add in Karsten Haustien's NCEP forecasts through the 28th, the anomaly falls to 0.610, which is still greater than October and November's anomaly, but will likely not be enough to create the largest anomaly in GISS or NOAA.  It will almost certainly be the warmest December in the Temperature record, and certainly the warmest year since record keeping began.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #664 on: December 25, 2015, 08:10:52 PM »
We have enough information to make some educated guesses of the December, and Annual temperature anomalies for 2015.

Here's my take.  Using Nick Stoke's data through Dec 23, and Karsten Haustien's NCEP forecasts for the rest of the year, December will be the warmest on record, and probably the 3rd highest anomaly on record, behind October 2015 and November 2015,  There's a some chance that it will be higher or lower than 3rd, but that's the way to bet.  2015 will be the warmest on record, with the annual anomaly probably either 85 or 86, either way more than 1/10th of a degree above the 2nd warmest.

Now for some speculation.  I think 2016 is likely to be warmer than 2015, but not as much a lock as some people seem to think.  In any case, unless the el nino gets a second life, I do not expect 2016 to blow 2015 away like '98 did '97.

Interesting times.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #665 on: December 26, 2015, 05:32:39 PM »
Russia warming 'more than twice as fast' as rest of the world
Quote
MOSCOW: Russia is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the world, the environment ministry said on Friday, sounding an alarm on the rise in floods and wildfires nationwide.

A government report on environmental protection said temperatures in Russia had warmed by 0.42 degrees Celsius per decade since 1976, or 2.5 times higher than the global warming trend of 0.17 degrees.

“Climate change leads to growth of dangerous meteorological phenomena,” the ministry said in a comment to the report published Friday.

There have been 569 such phenomena in Russia in 2014, “the largest since monitoring began,” the ministry said, including last year’s ravaging floods and this year’s “water deficit” east of Lake Baikal, which led to a “catastrophic rise in fires.”

President Vladimir Putin rarely voices concerns about climate change, having famously said in the past that a little warming would not hurt the  country and seeing it as a boon for Arctic development.

Experts however have cautioned that warming could hurt energy infrastructure on permafrost in Siberia and increase other risks.
http://nation.com.pk/international/25-Dec-2015/russia-warming-more-than-twice-as-fast-as-rest-of-the-world
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #666 on: December 27, 2015, 12:36:18 AM »
Take a look at the second graph down on the link below.  It shows the ratio of New Daily Record High Temperature Records.....to New Low temp records.  I have done this for the US, Russia, and Canada (Canada is still in process...but done from 1970 - today...will be finishing Pre 1970 soon).  You can see that Russia is off the charts.

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-high-temps-to-new_36.html

Russia is in trouble in a LOT of ways.  A country so dependent on natural resources....especially oil...  BIG TROUBLE in their future.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #667 on: December 28, 2015, 02:46:26 AM »
From the Weird Weather thread:

Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole
Quote
(The Arctic region as a whole is expected to experience a [frankly quite insane] temperature anomaly in the range of 4 degrees Celsius above average by January 3rd of 2016. Note the broad regions over Northern Canada, Siberia, and the Arctic Ocean that are predicted to experience temperatures in the range of 20 degrees Celsius above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 baseline readings. For some areas — particularly in Northern Canada — this will mean near or even above freezing temperatures for tundra and permafrost zones in the depths of Winter. A set of conditions that has serious implications for permafrost thaw and related carbon store feedbacks. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/27/warm-arctic-storm-to-hurl-hurricane-force-winds-at-uk-and-iceland-push-temps-to-72-degrees-f-above-normal-at-north-pole/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #668 on: December 29, 2015, 07:24:50 PM »
Switzerland has warmest December ever as average temperatures rise 3.4C
The country that founded winter tourism has seen the mildest end to the year since records began 150 years ago with ski resort owners set to suffer
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/29/switzerland-has-warmest-december-ever-as-average-temperatures-rise-34c
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Theta

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #669 on: December 29, 2015, 07:44:17 PM »
Switzerland has warmest December ever as average temperatures rise 3.4C
The country that founded winter tourism has seen the mildest end to the year since records began 150 years ago with ski resort owners set to suffer
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/29/switzerland-has-warmest-december-ever-as-average-temperatures-rise-34c

Something similar happened in 2011 to 2012 if I am correct
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deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #670 on: December 30, 2015, 06:33:55 PM »
As the sun sets over 2015, December is finishing the year true to form, with record breaking warmth across the globe. In the attached graphic, using surface air temperature data from NCEP/NCAR, we find that not a single day of 2015 was below the 1981-2010 baseline (data through December 27th.) This illustrates just how off the charts 2015 was. We find also that the daily global temperature had generally vacillated between the mean and up to anomalies of about 0.6 C from when I started tracking in late 2013 up until the end of July, when surface temperatures began to creep upwards and expressed some intense spikes of over 1 C in October and December. Much of this short term spike is due to the furious growth of El Niño. El Niño now promises a volatile 2016, and it is possible that La Niña sweeps in as a change of the guards, which may blunt some of the expected record warming later in 2016 (I suspect the peak 12-month average of the warming spike will occur sometime in the northern summer of 2016).

Theta

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #671 on: December 31, 2015, 03:19:41 PM »
I don't really know where else to put this, so I decided to place it here. Attached is a video of Guy's presentation in Miami where he talks about the effects of aerosol loss, the most important point he makes is that without the return of aerosols to the atmosphere, the earth experiences rapid warming that leads to 4C rapidly (within weeks I think)

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plinius

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #672 on: December 31, 2015, 08:35:19 PM »
how about reading a scientific paper, instead of multi-posting pretty pathetic and mostly political babble mistaken for facts?

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #673 on: January 01, 2016, 04:50:07 PM »
Warm December in Europe:

Here are some figures I compiled from NOAA (here is the link if any of you want it:  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records)

I ran some "query's" for Norway, Finland, Sweden, UK, France, Spain, and Italy.  I looked for Ne Record Highs.....and New Record Lows (no TIED records....only NEW records).

For December so far....here are the numbers;

Norway:  28 new record highs....0 new record lows
Finland:  69 new record highs....0 new record lows
Sweden:  23 new record highs...0 new record lows
UK:         81 new record highs....0 new record lows
France:   111 new record highs...1 new record low (on their island in the middle of the Pacific)
Spain:     180 new record highs... 2 new record lows
Italy:       45 new record highs.....1 new record low

If you ignore the 1 new record high from France's island in the middle of the Pacific (and concentrate on Europe).....then the ratio is a staggering 179 to 1.

Yes Europe.....you're having a very warm December.... :-X
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werther

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #674 on: January 01, 2016, 10:16:45 PM »
Thanks Buddy,
I just put a post on the 'Weird weather'-thread concerning The Netherlands'new December mean temp record....

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #675 on: January 01, 2016, 10:37:57 PM »
Regarding "warm December weather in Europe".....

Just ran some numbers for a few other countries just for grins:  Ukraine, Poland, Hungry, Romania.  No record lows among any of them.  If you add those countries to the other countries I ran....you get a ridiculous ratio of 278 to 1.

For the United States....I have run numbers from 1930 through 12/30/2015.  The highest ratio of "new record highs to new record lows" that I came up with for ANY month in that time frame.....was March of 2012, and that was 32 to 1.

Also...the ratio is so high....not so much from the number of record high temperatures you folks are having....but from the LACK of record low temperatures.  Because of the additional loading of the atmosphere with CO2...the nights and early mornings are maintaining their heat (as explained by the scientists who first did research in 2009 on the "record high to record low" numbers in the US).

But in Europe for December........it is just OFF THE CHARTS, because of the almost absolute lack of new record low temps for December.
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deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #676 on: January 02, 2016, 01:32:19 AM »
Every major weather station east of the Mississippi River logged its warmest departure over a one week period during the week of Christmas. Washington, DC (and many other places in eastern North America) had its warmest December, overtaking the second warmest by a massive 5.5 F (3.1 C). The monthly departure was something like 13 F from the 20th century average. It was also the warmest departure from average for any calendar month.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #677 on: January 02, 2016, 06:04:41 PM »
The linked Skeptical Science article about global mean surface temperatures highlights several considerations:
- The GISS (LOTI) value above pre-industrial for November 2015 was 1.306C (see extract); which was well above the 12-month running average value of 1.095C
- The first attached associated image shows that the current El Nino has not yet contributed much to the current high temperatures, and that the El Nino contributions are more likely to occur in the Feb to April 2016 timeframe.
- The second attached associated image shows the 2015 temperatures well above other recent years.
- The third attached non-associated image shows Gavin Schmidt's Dec 14 2015 projection for 2015 temps, and as December has shown record heat we can assume that the 2015 temp will be near (or above) the top of Gavin's error bar (in a week, or more, we should know the actual measured value for 2015):

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2c-2015-11.html

Extract: "November produced another scorcher in the GISS record, coming in at 1.05°C over baseline. If we add our preindustrial baseline adjustment of -0.256 we get a preindustrial anomaly of 1.306°C (this is the difference between the GISS baseline and the 1880-1909 preindustrial baseline)."

Edit: With regards to the second attached image, note that while the El Nino didn't start until the middle of 2015, the first half of 2015 was well above all other years; thus indicating that climate change played a stronger role than the El Nino in achieving the warmest year on record.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2016, 09:51:32 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #678 on: January 02, 2016, 08:25:23 PM »
One additional tidbit for the "ratio of new daily record high temps to new daily record low temps" for Europe in December:

I took a "broader look" at Europe for the entire month of December through the 31st....and also broadened my scope to include EVERY country in "continental Europe" + Ireland, UK, and Iceland.  so I included the eastern European countries.  33 Countries in all (couldn't get data for Germany).

There were only 5 new record daily LOWS for the month.....3 in Iceland and 2 in Italy.  There were 882 new daily record high temperatures set.

Spain had 182....France 113.....Ukraine 98.....U. Kingdom 84....Finland 69....Belarus 66.....Italy 45.....Estonia 43.....Norway 30.  Those had the most numerous new record daily highs.

It should be pointed out.....that Russia had 461 new record highs to 15 new record lows as well.  So....temperature wise it was warm from the east coast of the United States.....all the way east through all of Europe and Russia.  THAT....is a LARGE AREA to have a lot of warmth.

This is just the beginning....we have another 50+ years of this and much...much...more I'm afraid.

 
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #679 on: January 03, 2016, 05:16:45 AM »
To quote from Nick Stokes' blog

"The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index for December was 0.621°C, up from November's 0.513°C, and ahead of the previous record - October 2015 at 0.567°C, which itself was a big jump on the previous record. It was an eventful month, with another extraordinary peak early, then mid-month the steepest plunge in recent years (but only to values which would have been high a few months ago) and then back to hot at the end.

There were some late data troubles - a data pause from NCEP for three days, and at my end, I have some end of year issues to fix. But they don't affect the results posted.

Adjusted to the 1951-1980 baseline of GISS, that would give a month anomaly of 1.18°C. The current record there is October at 1.06°C. I would expect that GISS might be a bit lower than 1.18, but still the hottest month in the record. Which makes 2015 even more securely the hottest year. "

My guess for December is around 1.10C for GISS.  Very likely highest monthly anomaly in the temperature record.  Certainly both the highest December anomaly on record, and the warmest year by a lot.  My estimated anomaly for the year is up slightly from .85-.86 to .86-.87.



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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #680 on: January 13, 2016, 12:56:54 PM »
According to Berkeley Earth, the 2015 annual average global surface temperature anomaly was about +0.78°C  (relative to 1951-1980), exceeding the previous warmest years 2014, 2010 and 2005 by about 0.14°C:

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Land_and_Ocean_summary.txt

Press release:

http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2015-Hottest-Year-BE-Press-Release-v1.0.pdf






BenB

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #681 on: January 14, 2016, 10:53:40 AM »
JMA's December anomaly just came in, and it's virtually off the scale: +0.67°C vs the previous record of +0.31°C set just last year. Both values are measured against a 1981-2010 baseline. Here's a link to the graph:

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/dec_wld.html

James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #682 on: January 14, 2016, 06:15:40 PM »
Nick Stokes's data for the first 12 days of January is a scorching anomaly of 0.776.  Fortunately climate reanalyzer predicts cooler weather for the next week.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #683 on: January 15, 2016, 03:17:48 PM »
JMA's December anomaly just came in, and it's virtually off the scale: +0.67°C vs the previous record of +0.31°C set just last year. Both values are measured against a 1981-2010 baseline. Here's a link to the graph:

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/dec_wld.html

I get the impression that Robert Scribbler is concerned about global warming when he uses words like "Terrifying jump" to describe the JMA mean global temperature increase in December.

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/14/december-of-2015-at-1-4-c-above-1890-is-a-terrifying-new-jump-in-global-temperatures/

Extract: "A Terrifying Jump in Global Temperatures — December of 2015 at 1.4 C Above 1890"

Edit: Here is the JMA plot that both Scribbler & BenB are referring to
« Last Edit: January 15, 2016, 05:07:58 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Laurent

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #684 on: January 15, 2016, 04:44:25 PM »
What may be terrifying is that all these gentlemen who met at Paris recently for the cop21 would have to meet again very soon, the target is supposed to be 1.5°c, at that pace we will meet it sooner than they think !!! Come back food is good in France (used to). ;)

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #685 on: January 16, 2016, 08:44:55 PM »
Nick Stokes values for 1-14 of January shows an astonishing anomaly of +0,791o. If this warmth continues through the rest of the month we'll be very close to have an anomaly close to +1,5o above pre-industrial time. One may also wonder what effect the current restrengthening of El Nino will have on the global temp anomalies.

Best, LMV

James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #686 on: January 18, 2016, 12:10:33 AM »
The values thru Jan 15 are up to 0.793!

Climate Reanalyzer's global anomaly forecasts have us going to more reasonable temperatures.  I've been tracking both Nick Stokes's data, and the Climate Reanalyzer global forecasts (as provided by http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate ).  Unfortunately, Nick Stokes values have not dipped down as predicted.  It looks likely that the series of highest anomaly months on record will continue.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #687 on: January 18, 2016, 12:18:19 AM »
Note that.....COMBINED sea ice cover is VERY LOW with the Arctic sea ice at all time lows for this date....and the Antarctic sea ice has now moved below the average for 1980 - 2010.

All that ice gone.....more heat absorbed by the earth rather than reflected back out into space...
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #688 on: January 19, 2016, 05:13:24 PM »
I've been waiting impatiently for the December GISS figures to come out.

When they didn't come out on the 18th, I put it down to the Holiday (Martin Luther King B-Day -Observed for the non-USians).  Since it's still not out, I am thinking they are delaying the announcement until the joint NASA-NOAA Telecon, Climate and weather.  January 20, 11AM US Eastern Time (4PM GMT).  http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio


AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #689 on: January 19, 2016, 05:15:58 PM »
I've been waiting impatiently for the December GISS figures to come out.

When they didn't come out on the 18th, I put it down to the Holiday (Martin Luther King B-Day -Observed for the non-USians).  Since it's still not out, I am thinking they are delaying the announcement until the joint NASA-NOAA Telecon, Climate and weather.  January 20, 11AM US Eastern Time (4PM GMT).  http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio

That seems like a reasonable guess as somewhere I read that administratively both NASA and NOAA have committed to releasing this information no later than Jan 21, 2016.
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deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #690 on: January 20, 2016, 04:44:56 PM »
Surprise! 2015 was the hottest year on record. Today, NASA, the Met Office, and NOAA jointly reported the year as the hottest year ever.

Here's a graphic (attached) produced by NASA's GISS showing surface temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1980.

NASA reports an annual anomaly of 0.87 C over 1951-1980. In fact, December was 1.12 C above that average, the biggest anomaly ever registered on that index.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 06:04:21 PM by deep octopus »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #691 on: January 20, 2016, 04:55:58 PM »
Surprise! 2015 was the hottest year on record. Today, NASA, the Met Office, and NOAA jointly reported the year as the hottest year ever.

Here's a graphic (attached) produced by NASA's GISS showing surface temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1980.

NASA reports a 0.85 C anomaly over 1951-1980. In fact, December was 1.12 C above that average, the biggest anomaly ever registered on that index.

If I am not mistaken, Skeptical Science uses a 0.256C adjustment to the GISTEMP (LOTI = Land Ocean Temperature Index) to reference to the 1880-1909 preindustrial baseline.  If so this would imply that 2015 was 1.106C above pre-industrial temperatures.
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deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #692 on: January 20, 2016, 05:15:32 PM »
Surprise! 2015 was the hottest year on record. Today, NASA, the Met Office, and NOAA jointly reported the year as the hottest year ever.

Here's a graphic (attached) produced by NASA's GISS showing surface temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1980.

NASA reports a 0.87 C anomaly over 1951-1980. In fact, December was 1.12 C above that average, the biggest anomaly ever registered on that index.

If I am not mistaken, Skeptical Science uses a 0.256C adjustment to the GISTEMP (LOTI = Land Ocean Temperature Index) to reference to the 1880-1909 preindustrial baseline.  If so this would imply that 2015 was 1.106C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Based on the maps tool, I can confirm this is about right. Though the calculation I come up with suggests 1.15 C (so actually a tad warmer than that.) See attached.

This indicates that the recently arbitrated 1.5 C figure that came out of COP21 is not very distant. For instance, in 1995 (20 years ago and also the hottest year at the time, which in this way makes it a useful interval) was 0.71 C above 1880-1909. We could be pushing above 1.5 C in 20 years time, which is staggeringly little time to rapidly move away from fossil fuels, and perhaps, too, if there are non-linear feedbacks, it could reasonably occur in less than 20 years. But this isn't really the sort of math we need to negotiate. Each passing year is getting more dangerous.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 06:04:45 PM by deep octopus »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #693 on: January 20, 2016, 05:23:07 PM »
I will post the Skeptical Science 2C Tracker image through Dec 2015, when it becomes available, but if my 1.106C value (let alone DO's 1.15 value) is correct referenced to the 1880-1909 preindustrial baseline, then the attached Met Office plot indicating about a 1C value referenced to the preindustrial baseline average between 1850-1900, may be an intentional effort on the part of mainstream climate scientists (like Gavin Schmidt who should be reporting data baselined to 1880-1909) to reduce the drama associated with their announcement.  I think that the different scales used by scientists confuses the public and reduces pressure on policymakers to take adequate action:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-2015-became-the-hottest-year-on-record


Extract: "Global temperature in 2015 was 0.75C above the 1961-1990 long-term average and a full 1C above preindustrial times, according to official figures from the UK’s Met Office.
Rising greenhouse gases and a “small contribution” from the El Niño in the Pacific combined to cause the record temperatures in 2015, the Met Office’s Prof Adam Scaife tells Carbon Brief.
There is unlikely to be any respite – scientists expect 2016 to be even warmer than 2015, says Scaife.
Overall, we expect El Niño to contribute around 25% to what will most likely be a new record global temperature in 2016.



(Note: The Met Office traditionally uses a 1961-1990 baseline, rather than the less well-defined “preindustrial” level. Where it uses term ‘preindustrial’, this refers to the average between 1850-1900, which is taken to be representative of a time before industrialisation took effect.)"
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 05:30:29 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #694 on: January 20, 2016, 05:55:55 PM »
I don't mean to be a nitpicker but per the attached plot from the linked Mashable article, the 2015 GISTEMP was +0.87 which by my calculation would give a value of +1.126C above the 1880-1909 preindustrial baseline:

http://mashable.com/2016/01/20/2015-hottest-year-record/#r.51Nr4aqkqJ
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #695 on: January 20, 2016, 06:22:42 PM »
Again, I do not want to sound like a nitpicker but if one were to use the NOAA data referenced to 1951-1980, and used the Skeptical Science adjustment of 0.256C then per the attached figure (buried deep in the NOAA-NASA public announcement and which shows nonlinear behavior as does the JMA data), this would indicate that the Global Mean Surface Temperature is now +1.14C above the 1880-1909 preindustrial baseline (and I note that this value is essentially the same as DO's +1.15C value within my error of calculation):

http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-record-shattering-global-warm-temperatures-in-2015
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/noaa_nasa_global_analysis_2015.pdf

PS if I seem confused as to just what mainstream NOAA-NASA climate scientists are saying, just imagine what the general public are thinking (or worse not thinking).

PPS note that during the faux hiatus the values are relatively flat while large amounts of heat were being sequestered in the ocean, where they may be contributing to our current extreme weather and/or Super El Nino.

PPPS I imagine that the Paris Agreement probably considers the 1850-1900 average as preindustrial which would give them more time before reaching 1.5C; however, as nature does not care about such diplomatic slight of hand, we will all be exposed to greater danger until we get radiative forcing under control.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 06:36:33 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #696 on: January 20, 2016, 06:58:59 PM »
My initial report on the recent briefings on 2015 global average surface temperatures from NOAA/NASA and the UK Met Office:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/2015-really-is-the-warmest-year-in-modern-record/#Briefing

See in particular the "Storify" of recent events on Twitter. I waited patiently in the NASA/NOAA queue to ask some Arctic related questions, but never received the call. I'll let you know when I receive the promised answers by email.

Meanwhile, here's a novel graphic from Larry Hamilton:
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #697 on: January 20, 2016, 07:40:08 PM »
DMI's North of 80N current temperature is about what one used to expect for mid April (or late October :D), or about 10C above 'normal'.


But for perspective, a dozen other years have had a January temperature spike higher than this in the past 30 years, per these DMI graphs.  2006 looks to have had the warmest January in those dark northern reaches.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 08:08:47 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #698 on: January 20, 2016, 07:55:14 PM »
What a huge spike. It does look impressive.
It would be nice if all those idiots who posted articles about a global warming hiatus would apologize and/or explain that they were wrong. Too much to ask for, I know.

S.Pansa

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #699 on: January 20, 2016, 08:34:19 PM »
Here is a short summary from James Hansen. Interesting stuff. Some quotes:

 
Quote
Accounting for interannual variability, it is fair to say that global warming has now reached ~1°C, almost ~2°F.

Quote
The late-2015 record warmth was spurred by a strong El Niño (Fig. 3).  Global temperature anomaly, averaged over many El Niños, is strongly correlated with Niño3.4  temperature anomaly, with global temperature lagging Niño3.4 anomaly by ~3 months.  Thus we can
anticipate that 2016 will again be very warm on global average, as temperature in the first half of the year will be boosted by the fading El Niño and Earth’s continuing average energy imbalance of 0.5-1 W/m-2 also creates a tendency toward warming.

So if we account for the El Nino, the warming ist ~1 °C. The reference period seems to be the 1880-1920 mean. But is that realy the pre-industrial temperature? Or is it the temperature around 1750? Call me confused.

Tom Curtis and Rob Honeycutt, who makes the Skeptical Science 2-C-tracking graph, had an interesting discussion about this very topic. They seem to agree that the 1750 temps baseline is ~0.2 C lower than the 1880-1909 baseline. So if we account for that it would be more like 1.2°C. Could that be correct?
 
Sou at  HotWhopper cites a recent article by Michael Mann in the Huffington Post. He writes:

Quote
The graph has been annotated to indicate the warming observed by 1800 and 1900. It is evident that roughly 0.3C greenhouse warming had already taken place by 1900, and roughly 0.2C warming by 1870. While that might seem like a minor amount of warming, it has significant implications for the challenge we face in stabilizing warming below 2C, let alone 1.5C, as we shall see below.

That would roughly confirm the 0.2/1.2 C numbers. Nonetheless, all pretty confusing - and way too warm for my taste.

Edit: I have attached the graph Mann is referencing in the quote above 
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 08:48:39 PM by S.Pansa »