In his linked article (from yesterday) Tamino examines Hansen et al (1981) warnings vs what has been observed since then; and he concludes that it is advisable to heed Hansen's words of wisdom. Nevertheless, the attached associated image indicates that Hansen is also susceptible to erring on the side of least drama as between 1981 and 2010 he apparently underestimated climate sensitivity by about 35% and considering that the faux hiatus overlaps much of this period and also considering the 12-month running average GMST through July 2016; I would not be surprised but that Hansen has underestimated ECS by 50%; which would mean that it is closer to 4.5C rather than the 3C that Hansen has supported as recently as this year (see Reply #1080 to see that the actual radiative forcing has been lower than CMIP5 scientists assumed, resulting GMST values 0.1 to 0.15C lower than expected):
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/08/16/crystal-serenity/#more-8675Extract: "In 1981 James Hansen and colleagues published research in the prestigious peer-reviewed journal Science titled “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.” They discussed the result of basic physics, that carbon dioxide in the air inhibits Earth cooling off, thus heating the planet. They also reported the results of computer simulations of Earth’s climate in a world with ever-increasing CO2.
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But if sensitivity is on the high side — if doubling CO2 (which we’re on track to do before this century is complete) raises global average temperature by 4.5°C (8.1°F) — then we are way beyond serious trouble. The consequences of that kind of global warming would be apocalyptic. That’s not exaggeration or “alarmism,” it’s just the truth.
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Global warming and its dangers isn’t a “hoax invented by the Chinese.” It’s a threat. We’ve been warned, for decades now, and it’s time for us to act."