Global Surface Air Temperatures

[BornFromTheVoid]

Over on Roy Spencer's blog he's reporting an increasing in the UAH August temperature to +0.44C, up +0.05C from July.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached image issued by Stoke's today with data through August 31 2016, indicates that per NCER indeed August 2016 was warmer than July 2016.

[Buddy]

Per the attached image issued by Stoke's today with data through August 31 2016, indicates that per NCER indeed August 2016 was warmer than July 2016.

LOVE the chart.  I have a few questions for myself looking at the temperature chart:

1)  Has the downtrend "terminated" with the uptick in August temperatures?  We all know the El Nino terminated several months ago and that caused the temperatures to moderate (at a STILL high level).  But now....what is going to happen with the "moderation" of heat going forward?  Are we going to have a short term "plateau"?.......will we have a longer term plateau of many months?.....or has the relatively short downturn "terminated", and we're going to head back higher because Arctic amplification has not stopped, but rather keeps picking up steam?

2)  Remember....we are quite literally in "uncharted waters" as far as temperatures, ice melt, CO2, permafrost melt, yaddy yaddy yadda.

Looking FORWARD is rather difficult.....because we (mankind) hasn't SEEN what we are heading into.  For me....I EXPECT the UNEXPECTED....but based on general laws of science (as opposed to Joe Bastardi who's ideas are based on old graphs when CO2 was 300 ppm:).

[AbruptSLR]

I have a few questions for myself looking at the temperature chart:

Obviously, the responses to your questions depends on who provides them; and also, I believe that it is a mistake to focus on daily, weekly, or even monthly fluctuations.  That said, I do not believe that we will see an official (ONI) La Nina this year, the PDO is currently positive and AGW influences winter temperatures more than summer; however, the Fall of 2015 GMST departures were higher than normal due to last years large El Nino.  So I would say there is a 50-50 chance that the 12-month moving average GMST departure will be higher by the end of December than now and well over a 99% chance that 2016 will be the hottest year on record.

[Buddy]

and also, I believe that it is a mistake to focus on daily, weekly, or even monthly fluctuations.

I agree.  I was looking at the last six months (short term trend).....and the "possible" end to a short term down trend in that graph.  August spikes UP...and I will be watching the next few-to-several months to see if it now (a) plateaus (b) spikes back up, or (c) continues to drop.

Given all that is going on RE Arctic amplification....I would "expect" either a plateauing for some time period....or perhaps a plateauing followed by another push UP in temperatures.

But it will be something I will watch closely along with ocean temps....

[Lord M Vader]

*BOOOM!* European Copernicus came in today with a record smashing warm August 0,17^oC higher than August 2015(!!!) Overall, the month was +0,62^oC warmer than the 1981-2010 average for August.

See and read more at: https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/august-2016

[ritter]

*BOOOM!* European Copernicus came in today with a record smashing warm August 0,17^oC higher than August 2015(!!!) Overall, the month was +0,62^oC warmer than the 1981-2010 average for August.

See and read more at: https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/august-2016

Shouldn't this not be happening if last year's increase was solely based on el nino? Meaning, there is a climate change footprint rather than an atmospheric event? (don't get me wrong, I believe it's from climate change, but deniers will scapegoat the nino.)

At any rate, damn, that's another big increase. 

[Buddy]

*BOOOM!* European Copernicus came in today with a record smashing warm August 0,17oC higher than August 2015(!!!) Overall, the month was +0,62oC warmer than the 1981-2010 average for August.

Not surprised....I thought there was a good chance that the temps are heading back up.  See my response on short term downtrend over the last 6 months seems to be terminating.

Too much heat...and nowhere to go.

Record high daily temperatures in both Russia and Canada (Arctic amplification) continue to dwarf record low daily temperatures this year.  As long as that continues.....it will be tough for global temps to cool.  Ratio in Russia was 4:1 (ratio of new daily record highs to new daily record lows)......and in Canada it was 8:1 in August.

[Buddy]

And now that any chance of a significant near term La Nina has been "called off".....this bodes for an increased chance of continued warming over the near and intermediate term.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/la-ni-watch-canceled-record-172232017.html

[Archimid]

I would love to see a side by side comparison of ENSO vs arctic sea ice during the melting season after 2007. I believe that before  2007 there was no correlation between the two. The planet was simply not warm enough and there was lots of multiyear ice.  After 2007 there is not enough data to show a correlation, but still. I believe that in a record warm planet a summer time el niño could warm the atmosphere enough to have a serious impact on the melting season. We'll have to wait many years before enough el niño has passed to have any certainty, but we might not have them.

[Lord M Vader]

NASA value for August just came in at +0,98^oC sealing a record warm August by a big +0,16^oC margin against the previous record holder 2014 at 0,82^oC.

With August in, the summer of 2016 was not surprisingly a record warm one at +0,88^oC. The previous record warm summer was 2015 at +0,76^oC.

UPDATE:NASA have also increased the anomaly value for both June and July. June is up to +0,80^oC and July is up to +0,85^oC.

//LMV

[Sigmetnow]

And now for the obligatory graphic:     

Eric Holthaus: Wow. Another new monthly global temperature record for planet Earth, per NASA data out today.   http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20160912/

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/775368389216710656

[AbruptSLR]

The two attached images with GISTEMP Anom data thru August 2016 were issued today by Gavin Schmidt. 

The first images shows an accumulation of monthly values from the late 1800's thru August 2016; indicating a relatively large gap for August 2016 from the mean for this month; which as we are well past the El Nino clearly indicates a trend for relatively high fast-response global climate sensitivity.

The second image shows Schmidt's estimate of the GISTEMP Anom at the end of 2016 based on the values from January thru August 2016.  While Schmidt preferred to focus on the greater than 99% chance that 2016 will have a record high GISTEMP Anom, the plot indicates a reasonable chance that the Anom (with to pre-industrial) might have a 50-50 chance of exceeding 1.3C (when rounding to two digits) in 2016.

[Sigmetnow]

Great illustration at xkcd today: Earth Temperature Timeline.
http://xkcd.com/1732/

Edit: Just noticed this web title on the graphic:
"[After setting your car on fire] Listen, your car's temperature has changed before."

[AbruptSLR]

Great illustration at xkcd today: Earth Temperature Timeline.
http://xkcd.com/1732/

Edit: Just noticed this web title on the graphic:
"[After setting your car on fire] Listen, your car's temperature has changed before."

I note that the linked graph is baselined to the 1961-1999 average and ignores the large increase in GMST anom that we have already experienced this year to date (so don't be naïve about the low-ball estimates of the projected pathways)

[AbruptSLR]

Per Stokes thru Sept 9 2016, Sept is currently warmer than August 2016, (which is typically not the case, if the current trend continues through the end of the month)

[Lord M Vader]

Well, September might be warm enough to break the record from 2014 but after that I'm quite sure that this string of record warm months will end. I don't see how we should overpower the record values from October to December without any El Niño.

[AbruptSLR]

I provide the following comparison between the Global, NH & SH GISS Land & Ocean temperature departure values for: (a) the 2015 Mean values, (b) the approximate force adjusted CMIP5 2016 RCP 8.5 (and 95% CL range per Steven) and (c) the 2016 12-month running average GISS temp departures (from 1951-1980)from January thru July.  This data shows that as compared to the RCP 8.5 CMIP5 2016 average mean value the August 2016 12-month running average Global, NH and SH are all running hot.  It will be interesting to see if this trend continues through Dec 31 2016:

GISS Land & Ocean Temp Departure degrees Celsius, base period: 1951-1980

Year                             Global         NHem        SHem
2015 Mean                        0.86           1.13          0.60 
2016 RCP 8.5/CMIP5           0.85         1.05         0.65
RCP 8.5 95% CL Range (0.5–1.2)   (0.6–1.5)    (0.3–1.0)

12-mo. running ave.
August 2016:              1.03             1.33           0.78
July 2016:                   1.02             1.33           0.72
June 2016:                   1.01             1.31            0.71
May 2016:                    1.00             1.29            0.71
April 2016:                    0.99            1.30            0.69
March 2016:                  0.96            1.27          0.66
Febr. 2016:                   0.93            1.22            0.64
Jan. 2016:                     0.89            1.16            0.62
(To convert 1951-1980 temp departures to pre-industrial add: + 0.256 Celsius)

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few graphs from the GISS data.



The rolling 12 month average is now up to +1.03C



In order for the year to average 1.0C or greater, the average anomaly for the rest of the year needs to be at least +0.89C

[AbruptSLR]

Well, September might be warm enough to break the record from 2014 but after that I'm quite sure that this string of record warm months will end. I don't see how we should overpower the record values from October to December without any El Niño.

To me what matters is the 12-month running average (rather than monthly fluctuations) and as my prior post indicates through the end of August the 12-month running average GISTEMP Anom baselined to pre-industrial is at +1.29C (to three digits).

[Buddy]

I don't see how we should overpower the record values from October to December without any El Niño.

That WOULD be rather "jolting" wouldn't it....

[Yuha]

In January, Tamino was trying to model the effect of el Niño to global temperatures and found this:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/

The best model I’ve found so far (there’s a lot more to test) involves a linear el Niño effect which lags only 2 months behind the el Niño itself, a nonlinear el Niño effect which lags 10 months, and a seasonal effectiveness of the el Niño impact.

Are we now perhaps seeing that 10 month lag effect?

[AbruptSLR]

In January, Tamino was trying to model the effect of el Niño to global temperatures and found this:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/

The best model I’ve found so far (there’s a lot more to test) involves a linear el Niño effect which lags only 2 months behind the el Niño itself, a nonlinear el Niño effect which lags 10 months, and a seasonal effectiveness of the el Niño impact.

Are we now perhaps seeing that 10 month lag effect?

The first attached Karsten Haustein plot projects above average temperatures for the next 5-days.  At some point we need to stop "blaming it on El Nino", see the second image, and consider the possibility that ECS may be on the higher end of the AR5 range, see the third image, due to "ratcheting" of the climate state due to strong El Nino events (see the fourth image).

[Archimid]

GISS Land & Ocean Temp Departure degrees Celsius, base period: 1951-1980

I wonder, when the IPCC says  1.5C is the "safe" threshold, did they take into account that the Northern Hemisphere would warm at almost twice the pace as the Southern Hemisphere? Because rhe NH will get to 1.5 much sooner than the SH. Probably well inside of 20 years.

[AbruptSLR]

GISS Land & Ocean Temp Departure degrees Celsius, base period: 1951-1980

I wonder, when the IPCC says  1.5C is the "safe" threshold, did they take into account that the Northern Hemisphere would warm at almost twice the pace as the Southern Hemisphere? Because rhe NH will get to 1.5 much sooner than the SH. Probably well inside of 20 years.

Seeing as the 12-month running average GISTEMP Anom for the NH through August 2016 is already at 1.59C about pre-industrial; it certainly seems like you are safe to say that we will probably reach that level within 20 years.

[Buddy]

At some point we need to stop "blaming it on El Nino"

That blame game will end SOON.  We may plateau at about the current level for a SHORT while....but there are too many feedback effects that are now in play to slow this train down.

Even for a finance guy like me....it doesn't take a degree in rocket science to figure out that all that heat has to go somewhere....and without a La Nina to transfer some of that heat to the ocean...temps will continue to push upward.

[Theta]

At some point we need to stop "blaming it on El Nino"

That blame game will end SOON.  We may plateau at about the current level for a SHORT while....but there are too many feedback effects that are now in play to slow this train down.

Even for a finance guy like me....it doesn't take a degree in rocket science to figure out that all that heat has to go somewhere....and without a La Nina to transfer some of that heat to the ocean...temps will continue to push upward.

This is what frightens me most. There are so many positive feedbacks in the system that it seems to me that we may have passed the tipping point for the earth to turn into venus.

[Tor Bejnar]

... it seems to me that we may have passed the tipping point for the earth to turn into venus.

According to a National Geographic interview, not possible.  Feel better?

[Iceismylife]

At some point we need to stop "blaming it on El Nino"

That blame game will end SOON.  We may plateau at about the current level for a SHORT while....but there are too many feedback effects that are now in play to slow this train down.

Even for a finance guy like me....it doesn't take a degree in rocket science to figure out that all that heat has to go somewhere....and without a La Nina to transfer some of that heat to the ocean...temps will continue to push upward.

This is what frightens me most. There are so many positive feedbacks in the system that it seems to me that we may have passed the tipping point for the earth to turn into venus.

We've been far warmer in the past without undue effect.  Are we going to dump the ice sheets? IMO Probably.

Antarctic ice into the ocean? Again probably.  How fast?

[Buddy]

We've been far warmer in the past without undue effect.  Are we going to dump the ice sheets? IMO Probably.

Antarctic ice into the ocean? Again probably.  How fast?

Of course...we have been warmer.....except "we" (humans) weren't around.  I'm sure we will adapt...although it will likely be a painful adaptation.  Especially if you have a beach front home.

It will be interesting to watch the social changes.....even over just the coming 5 years.  By the end of 5 years the only ones saying that global warming is good...will be FOX News, Joe Bastardi, and Sean Hannity (OK....and Ted Cruz:).

Since 2011 sea level rise has kicked into a higher gear.....funny how that happens as temperatures have kicked into a higher gear as well.





 

[Sigmetnow]

Great illustration at xkcd today: Earth Temperature Timeline.
http://xkcd.com/1732/

Edit: Just noticed this web title on the graphic:
"[After setting your car on fire] Listen, your car's temperature has changed before."

Eric Holthaus discusses the above-linked comic: 
This Year’s Surge in Global Warming Is So Off the Charts, a Comic Is the Best Way to Explain It
A new webcomic looks at recent climate change through the history of civilization. The result is pretty grim.

"When you take a really long view, the data shows quite simply that we are rapidly leaving the climatic era that gave rise to human civilization."

https://psmag.com/this-years-surge-in-global-warming-is-so-off-the-charts-a-comic-is-the-best-way-to-explain-it-3ced8e0e0247

[AbruptSLR]

Not to get carried away with daily values, but per the attached plot by Stokes with data through September 11 2016, in the past two days the average September GMST Anom has continued to rise:

[Buddy]

Not to get carried away with daily values, but per the attached plot by Stokes with data through September 11 2016, in the past two days the average September GMST Anom has continued to rise:

We have a "short term base" from June through today.  As I noted before....I think we "could" base (plateau) for short term.....before pushing higher.  Whether we base for a few weeks or a few months....I certainly don't know.  But the "fundamentals" (amount of CO2.....the fact we don't have a La Nina......and various feedback mechanisms are positive)....tells me the chances of going HIGHER are very good.

Again (don't mean to sound like a broken record)...but we are going to CONTINUE to push into uncharted territory in coming months/years/decades....because EVERTHING is in "record territory", so EVERTHING will be "new".

The "oh shit moment" for Hanson and other scientists happened decades ago......for most of the rest of the scientists maybe it happened a decade or two ago.  And the "oh shit moment" for many of the public is still ahead.  But we're heading into it....and we're getting there quickly.

Personally....I'll continue to keep my eyes peeled on (1) temperature rise and (2) ocean rise.  I think that Hanson is right regarding the POTENTIAL for SIGNIFICANT SEA LEVEL RISE over the next 35 years.

Everyone KNOWS that the "alt right" pseudo climate scientists like Spencer and Singer (and others) are talking out of their "political mouth".....and downplaying or ignoring the facts.

In March of 2012......Spencer said "the warming trend over the Northern Hemisphere, where virtually all of the thermometer data exist, is a function of population density at the thermometer site."  That is TOTAL CRAP.  The warmest temperatures have been in northern Canada and Russia....and density is NOT an issue.  The heat island effect in the US has been looked at multiple times and found NOT to be an issue.

Also in March of 2012.....Spencer said:  ""I think...we may see very little warming in the future,"

And then 2014 happened....followed by 2015....and even more heat in 2016.

The day's of Spencer, Christy, Bastardi, Hannity, and others.......lying about global warming are going to come to an end.  Not without them kicking or screaming....but they will be ridiculed out of the conversation at some point in the future.



   

[budmantis]

The names you mention Buddy would not be deniers if they lived in one of the low lying Pacific islands.

[Theta]

... it seems to me that we may have passed the tipping point for the earth to turn into venus.

According to a National Geographic interview, not possible.  Feel better?

Not really after reading the link since all it states that Venus is more likely to happen and that the only caveat in the model is the lack of cloud modelling which is minor when compared to the fact that we don't have anymore negative feedbacks like trees and the oceans are not absorbing heat anymore.

[oren]

Not sure if this reassures anyone, but human civilization will be long gone before it manages to burn all coal, oil and gas. AGW is a powerful negative feedback to a fossil-based civilization.

[BornFromTheVoid]

August just 2nd warmest on record according to the JMA, 0.03C lower than the record from last year of +0.46C.



Warmest summer on record though, 0.01C warmer than last summer.

[AbruptSLR]

Gavin Schmidt provides the attached NASA plot indicating that through July 2016, the observed GMST Anom was ahead of the forecasted GMST Anom when considering the influence of the ENSO cycle.  It will be interesting to see how NASA's forecast for 2017 holds up:

[Shared Humanity]

2016 will form the start of a decade long conversation about why global warming has stalled.

[AbruptSLR]

2016 will form the start of a decade long conversation about why global warming has stalled.

I think that the projected ENSO condition that Schmidt is referring to is the projected La Nina, that is La Nada.

Also, the attached plot was issued today by the BoM, and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.3:

[Sleepy]

SH & ASLR, I think we might see neutral ENSO conditions throughout 2017, the outlier right now that do predict La Nina conditions for winter is JMA. But SST's in the Nino4 region seems to have bottomed out now. And while there's another subsurface cold pool in the western pacific, it is far from the anomalies we saw earlier this year. Total heat content by TAO/Triton indicates dissipating colder anomalies.
And for the present increase in the SOI, autumn is the usual time for weather patterns to change. More notable is that the SOI has been consistently near zero for June, July and August. Also notable is the rapid phase change in the QBO. Whatever that sudden dive to zero will lead to, it will affect seasonal forecasting since it affects the forecasted NAO. And the QBO used to be the boring old faithful of oscillations. It's not anymore.
Low sea ice favors a strengthened Siberian high and/or a weaker winter polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex will support SSW's, and so on.

2017 will likely not beat 2016, but I see no real stall ahead, we just took another step up in global temperatures. My guess is that 2017 will provide a new record low extent in the Arctic and Antartica will follow within the next four years.

In short, I wish to see a stall ahead but I can't see it right now.

[Lord M Vader]

NOAA's report for August is out which confirms NASA's report of a record warm August. NOAA's record surpasses August 2015 by 0,05^o and totally 0,92^oC warmer than average.

Interestingly, while the oceans in the northern hemisphere were third warmest they were record warm in the southern hemisphere.

Just as with NASA, the summer of 2016 was record warm surpassing the previous record from 2015 with 0,04^oC margin.

Link to NOAA report: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201608

[Sigmetnow]

Earth roasts through hottest summer ever recorded

Michael Mann:  "There is now very robust paleoclimate evidence that the past decade was likely Earth’s warmest in more than a thousand years, and there is somewhat more tentative but nonetheless compelling evidence that we have moved into territory unseen in more than a hundred thousand years."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/09/20/earth-hottest-summer-record/90731548/

[AbruptSLR]

Per Stokes, thru the 18th, September remains above the August anom and well above the September 2015 anom.  This indicates that the 12-month running average GMST anom will likely increase through the end of September 2016:

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here are the projections for 2016 using previous monthly temps since 1998.



Given that September is looking record warm once more, most of these will probably be shifted slightly upward next month.

[Hefaistos]

New method to forecast global surface temperatures, by looking at sea level rise in the Pacific Ocean.

The amount of sea level rise in the Pacific Ocean can be used to estimate future global surface temperatures, according to a new report led by University of Arizona geoscientists. Based on the Pacific Ocean's sea level in 2015, the team estimates by the end of 2016 the world’s average surface temperature will increase up to 0.5 F (0.28 C) more than in 2014.
...
Using sea surface height rather than sea surface temperatures provides a more accurate reflection of the heat stored in the entire water column....
When sea level in the western Pacific rises more than average — as it did from 1998 to 2012 — the rise in global surface temperatures slows.

In contrast, when sea level drops in the western Pacific but increases in the eastern Pacific as it did in 2015, global surface temperatures bump up because the heat stored in the ocean is released. During the global warming hiatus, more heat was being stored in the deeper layers of the western Pacific Ocean, muting warming at the surface, the researchers said. Because warmer water expands, that stored heat contributed to the extreme sea level rise in the western Pacific during that time.

Starting in 2014 the ocean's tilt started to flatten out as the climate cycle changed to an El Niño pattern. The heat previously stored in the ocean was being released, warming the Earth's surface and reducing sea level in the western Pacific.

https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/pacific-sea-level-predicts-global-temperature-changes
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069401/abstract
First published: 18 August 2016

[James Lovejoy]

A first view of September's Temperature:

Karsten Haustein has a combination of measurements and forecast that go through September 30.

The data predict a September anomaly of 0.02 higher than August.  That is to be taken with a block of salt.  At the same time in August we were looking at a couple hundreths decrease in anomaly, and that turned into an unexpected 0.13 increase (GISS data).  Even with the uncertainty, it is very likely (more than 97.5%) that the twelve month moving average will again increase to new record territory, and likely (more than 80%) that September will again be the hottest September in temperature records.

The combination of September data and forecasts also increases the chances that 2016 will be the hottest year on record.  Since the chances were already over 99%, there's not much room to go higher.

[James Lovejoy]

A second view of September's Temperature:


Karsten Haustein's now has measurements and short-term forecasts through September 30.

These measurements and forecasts now have an anomaly of 0.05 C more than the August 2016 anomaly.

A naive extrapolation would give a GISS anomaly of 1.00 to 1.05.  However, actual results may vary.  August's jump of 0.13 was unexpected, and we could get an unexpected result on the low side.

Even so, it's very likely that the trend of record 12 month temperature will continue, better than 90% chance that September will be the warmest September on record, and extremely likely (3 standard deviations, 99.85%) that 2016 will be the warmest year on record.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot by Stokes thru September 30, 2016; confirms that the GMST anom for September 2016 has finished well ahead of both September 2015 and August 2016.  Thus the 12-month running average thru September will increase from the running average through August.

[Csnavywx]

Looks like a 1.01C-1.06C print is likely on GISS for September.

October temps look to start just as warm, if not warmer. Going to be an exceptional step-up in global temps once the annual reading comes in.