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magnamentis

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1200 on: November 01, 2016, 05:15:26 PM »
@AbruptSLR

IMO in reality it will just go up and up. at different rates of climp probably but up nontheless.

i have no clue ( perhaps you have ) how anyone can seriously believe that anything will change in time with human habits and daily live until fossil fuels are either depleted or too expensive for the average user. why do i say this here, because all those modes and scenarios that show decline are misleadingly given those who like illusions an false impression and an excuse to change nothing.

that said i'm aware that those are not your models and scenarios LOL :-) just mentioning in case
that my limited english skills should have made a false impression about that. :-)
« Last Edit: November 29, 2016, 10:21:05 PM by magnamentis »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1201 on: November 01, 2016, 05:50:21 PM »
@AbruptSLR

IMO in reality it will just go up and up. at different rates of climp probably but up nontheless.

i have no clue ( perhaps you have ) how anyone can seriously believe that anything will change in time with human habits and daily live until fossil fuels are either out or too expensive for the average user. why do i say this here, because all those modes and scenarios that show decline are misleadingly given those who like illusions an false impression and an excuse to change nothing.

that said i'm aware that those are not your models and scenarios LOL :-) just mentioning in case
that my limited english skills should have made a false impression about that. :-)

My main point was that to date we have essentially followed the RCP 8.5, and it is only due to the faux hiatus that the rate of decadal GMSTA change has been about 0.178C/decade, when the models indicate that without the decadal fluctuations of the ENSO/PDO/IPO we should already be at about 0.25C/decade, so as the ocean releases the heat that it has stored we are temporarily closer to 0.424C/decade.  If people were to use a Bayesian approach using the model projections as our priori such thinking would be clear.  That said, the scenarios like RCP 4.5 which we both believe are extremely unlikely, are assumed by the UN to be achievable via geoengineering, which the Paris Pact permits them to implement, per the linked article entitled: "Geoengineering to Alter Climate Moves Closer to Reality".  The article indicates that: (a) the Paris Pact (COP21) essentially commits the signature nations to use geoengineering to remain below 2C as every other pathway is fantasy; (b) the UN is thus investigating means to re-engineers the Earth Systems; and (c) acknowledges that currently the impacts resulting from the use of geoengineering are unpredictable.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-31/geoengineering-to-alter-climate-change-moves-closer-to-reality

Extract: "A United Nations body is investigating controversial methods to avert runaway climate change by giving humans the go-ahead to re-engineer the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere.

So-called geoengineering is seen as necessary to achieve the COP21 Paris agreement clinched in December, when 197 countries pledged to keep global temperatures rises below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), according to researchers who produced a report for the UN Convention on Biological Diversity.

“Within the Paris agreement there’s an implicit assumption that there will need to be greenhouse gases removed,” said Phil Williamson, a scientist at the U.K.’s University of East Anglia, who worked on the report. “Climate geoengineering is what countries have agreed to do, although they haven’t really realized that they’ve agreed to do it.”

Large-scale geoengineering may include pouring nutrients into oceans to save coral habitats or spraying tiny particles into the Earth’s atmosphere to reflect sun rays back into space. Geoengineering proposals have been shunned because of their unpredictable consequences on global ecosystems."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1202 on: November 02, 2016, 04:55:02 PM »
The attached image from Nick Stokes' website shows the NCEP daily GMSTA values through Oct 31 2016; which indicates that Oct 2016 is slightly below August 2016 and is well below Oct 2015.  Therefore, we can expect the 12-month running average GISS LOTI to drop when the NASA numbers are available later this month.
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1203 on: November 04, 2016, 06:46:13 AM »
Karsten Haustein has the largest NCEP anomaly projected through the 10th of November since April (0.771).  However, it's got the anomaly dropping, so the month may continue toward 'merely' one of the hottest Novembers on record instead of the hottest.

It's now all but certain that 2016 will be the hottest year on record, but how much can you move up from 99+% probable.  What's worrying is how hot the 'new normal' looks like it will be.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1204 on: November 04, 2016, 05:32:07 PM »
First monthly analyse for October is done. According to Copernicus, this was the second warmest October trailing 0,07oC behind 2015. From Copernicus calculations, October was relatively 0,01oC warmer than September. Read more at: https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/october-2016

As NASA GISS is quite sensitive to the poles, I suspect the GISS value to be on pair or just marginally higher than September ending up somewhere in the range 0,90-0,95oC.

As predicted from Karsten Haustein, November have stared off very warm. While the temps seems to drop down during the next few days, if the rest of November is going to be warm it has a decent shot to break last years November value. Of all the ridiculously warm months during October 2015 to March 2016, the value from November seems to be the "easiest" one to beat in the close future. Both Arctic and Antarctica have record low sea ice extents for this time of year which will have an impact on the global number.



Anomalies are relative 1981-2010 average for October 2016. Courtesy to Copernicus.

Best, LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1205 on: November 06, 2016, 07:51:37 PM »
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "There’s a La Nina Developing — So Why is the World Still Heating Up?".  In this piece Scribbler projects that by the end of 2016 GMSTA may be about 1.22C above the 1880's.  We will see in a few months whether this is wishful thinking, or not (note that in the attached Stoke's image of the NCEP daily GMSTA through Nov 4 2016, thru the 4th Nov 2016 is warmer than that for Nov 2015).

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/04/theres-a-la-nina-developing-so-why-is-the-world-still-heating-up/

Extract: "Long term, there’s no doubt what’s in control of the world’s temperature trend. The vast belching of greenhouse gasses by fossil fuel industry and related non-renewable based machinery has caused atmospheric carbon levels to hit 405 ppm CO2 and 490 ppm CO2e this year. All this added carbon has caused the world to warm by a record 1.22 C since 1880s levels during 2016 (approx). But superimposed over this long term warming trend is the natural variability based ebb and flow of atmospheric and surface ocean heat that is the ENSO cycle."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1206 on: November 07, 2016, 11:17:16 PM »
Per the attached Slater image issued today, the DMI mean 2m Temperature anom. North of 80N are currently higher than 100% of previously observed records.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1207 on: November 09, 2016, 03:53:38 AM »
Actuals and projections for Karsten Haustein are in through the 1st half of November.  The predicted anomaly for the 1st half of November is about 0.705 (1981-2010 reference period).  Almost 0.10 above October, and the highest since March.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1208 on: November 10, 2016, 07:57:26 PM »
Ben Noll:  Through early December, the new JMA weekly shows little/no sustained cold across the U.S.
   Canada also a blowtorch ... warm source region.

Animated map at the link:  https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/796645581850611712
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1209 on: November 13, 2016, 05:52:37 AM »
This graph of the daily mean temperature north of the 80th north parallel for Nov 12 2016 speaks for itself:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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charles_oil

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1210 on: November 14, 2016, 02:22:13 PM »
Chilling press release....
 
Nov 14, 2016 11:56 AM

The Met Office says 2016 is on track to be the warmest year on record since the beginning of the instrumental record in 1850. If confirmed when the final results are compiled at the end of the year, 2016 will be the third consecutive year of exceptionally-high average surface global temperatures.

All of the warmest ten years on record for global average surface temperature have occurred since 1997, according to the HadCRUT4 dataset - a series which begins in 1850.

The HadCRUT4 data for 2016 shows a current value of 0.84°C (± 0.10°C) above the average for the 30-year period between 1961-1990.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/2016-likely-to-break-global-temperature-record

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1211 on: November 14, 2016, 04:44:53 PM »
JMA is in with October on a third place behind 2015 and 2014.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1212 on: November 15, 2016, 12:41:30 AM »
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "For The Arctic Ocean Above 80 North, It’s Still Summer in November".  Buckle-up the ride gets bumpy from here (once Arctic Sea Ice loss in the Summer of 2017 ramps-up Arctic Amplification):


https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/14/for-the-arctic-ocean-above-80-north-its-still-summer-in-november/

Extract: "For in the Arctic Ocean above the 80 degree north latitude line which encircles the crest of our world, temperatures today are around 17 degrees Celsius above average. These are the warmest temperatures for this region ever recorded. And they include numerous locations in which temperatures spike to well above 20 C (36 F) warmer than average.
Taken in total, this region — one that includes the North Pole — is currently experiencing temperatures that it would typically see from September 15 through 21. In other words, it’s about as warm now, on November 14th, in the zone surrounding the North Pole as it typically is during the last week of summer.

The temperature range we see now is nothing less than astonishing and, to this particular observer, terrifying.

If this situation continues, implications for summer sea ice during 2017 could be pretty rough (more on this in the follow-on post). And it’s at the point where we hit ice-free summer states in the Arctic Ocean that some very radical regional, hemispheric, and global changes (which produce even worse effects than some of the bad outcomes we’ve already seen) will be well underway."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1213 on: November 15, 2016, 06:28:34 PM »
NASA just came in with their nominal value for October which ended up being +0,89oC warmer than the 1951-1980 average.

After the exceptionally warm October last year October 2016 stole the second place from 2014 with a +0,03oC margin. The margin to October 2015 was however a big 0,18oC.

For notice: August value has been edged upward to +0,99oC above the normal and September was down to second place.

The average so far for January to October is now +1,021oC above the 1951-1980 average. With that said, I would say it's foolproof that 2016 will be the warmest year on record.

Best, LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1214 on: November 15, 2016, 07:28:33 PM »
With that said, I would say it's foolproof that 2016 will be the warmest year on record.

The attached graph by Gavin Schmidt shows his prediction of the 2016 GISTEMP LOTI above the 19th Century using observed data through October 2016.  This graph confirms that it is not a question of whether 2016 will be the warmest year on record, but by how much (and per Gavin's graph it will be by a lot).
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1215 on: November 15, 2016, 08:16:52 PM »
So that's 2016 written into the record books.

With no El Nino, it'll be fascinating to watch 2017 unfold.......well fascinating in a slow-train-crash kind of way.

My bet is it'll be slightly cooler, maybe still be in the top 3.......but the way DMI temps are looking at the moment it could be just about anything.

Life was so much easier when I didn't watch sea ice.......Neven has a lot to answer for!  ::)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1216 on: November 15, 2016, 08:21:54 PM »
Life was so much easier when I didn't watch sea ice.......Neven has a lot to answer for!  ::)

Yes, Neven has a lot to answer for, and the Democrats are responsible for not beating Trump thus letting the GOP leadership off the hook so they can cooperate with him without accountability. ::)
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1217 on: November 15, 2016, 08:57:54 PM »
We are going to have a record 2016, and for the GISS very likely at least 0.10 higher than the next warmest year.

I'm calculating that the most likely GISS result is either 0.99 or 1.00 degrees warmer than the GISS base of 1951-1980, and that it's unlikely to be more than 0.02 degrees either above or below that.

What will happen in 2017 is interesting.  2017 is likely to be either the 3rd warmest on record or close to it.  What happens beyond that is worrying.  If we look at what happened in 1998, after the el nino, we had two years that were significantly cooler than '98, but still among the warmest on records, but after that every year was warmer than any year before 1998.  It's likely that the same will happen after 2019.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1218 on: November 15, 2016, 09:43:16 PM »
Hi guys!

How much have we put on the temp record since 2013?

Thanks in advance! :)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1219 on: November 15, 2016, 10:29:47 PM »
Hi guys!

How much have we put on the temp record since 2013?

Thanks in advance! :)

Gray-Wolf,

The GISTEMP LOTI in 2013 was 0.66C, and through the end of Oct 2016 the 12-month running average GISTEMP LOTI was 1.03C.  So if the difference is what you are asking for then the answer is about 0.37C hotter.  However, if you eyeball Gavin's mean projection through the end of 2016 then the difference may be around 0.35C hotter.

Best,
ASLR
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1220 on: November 15, 2016, 11:23:58 PM »
Hi guys!

How much have we put on the temp record since 2013?

Thanks in advance! :)

Gray-Wolf,

The GISTEMP LOTI in 2013 was 0.66C, and through the end of Oct 2016 the 12-month running average GISTEMP LOTI was 1.03C.  So if the difference is what you are asking for then the answer is about 0.37C hotter.  However, if you eyeball Gavin's mean projection through the end of 2016 then the difference may be around 0.35C hotter.

Best,
ASLR

Thanks AbruptSLR!

Now that guy from the UK MetO , back in 2002/03(ish), who said we were in for a 'slowdown' in the rate of warming for a period but that by 2015 we would have resumed warming at 1980's/90's rate ( or above), seems pretty close to the money.

Nino aside ( and its minimal input on the record temps in 05'/ or 06', whichever you prefer) we appear , since the 2014 flip in PDO/IPO ocean heat is readily bleeding into the climate system and surely, should the Pacific continue in its current hue ( cycle wise) , continue on quite a steep rise?

So we're trying to keep things below 1.5C above 1880? Yeah! Right.........
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1221 on: November 19, 2016, 06:47:11 PM »
As most people on this site know....temperatures at night time have been warming even MORE than temperatures in the day time.

Here in the US.  I track the number of "New Daily Record Highs" and "New Daily Record Lows" in the US, Russia, and Canada...and they go back to the 1930's for the US.

Something interesting this year....is the SIGNIFICANT drop off in New Record Lows.  The number of New Record Highs has been relatively normal....but the LACK of New Record Lows just "pops off the page."

Number of Months in the US that had AT LEAST 1,000 new record daily low temps:

2010   4
2011   3
2012   2
2013   5
2014   7
2015   2
2016   0  ZERO (in fact....only 18 new record lows this month through the 17th)

Nights are continuing to stay warmer and warmer.  And I am sure that the same physics is the reason why the Arctic is staying so warm....even when there is little or no sunlight left as winter sets in.

Even when I go back to 1998....which was a record warm year in the US (as well as globally).....there were 2 months during 1998 when there were over 2,000 "New Record LOW Temperatures" set in the US.

So far this month.....18 TOTAL for the month of November.  In fact....the most so far THIS YEAR....is 402 new daily record lows set in August.  So we haven't even been CLOSE to 1,000 for ANY MONTH in 2016.  The average number of New Daily Record Lows PER MONTH in 2016...is 260...which is WAY lower than "normal" (I know....there isn't any normal any more:).

The LOWEST number of "daily record low temps" for ANY ONE MONTH....going back to 1930....is 51 set in February of 1992 (and 1992 had 9 months in a row starting with April, with at least 1,000 new record daily lows).

This is just the continuation of crazy climate "things" that will continue to happen as we move forward.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1222 on: November 23, 2016, 05:52:08 PM »
Per the two attached NCEP GMSTA images, it looks to me that: (a) the GMSTA mean for Nov 2016 will likely be less than that for Nov 2015; and (b) the GISS LOTI anom for 2016 will likely be close to 1.25C above pre-industrial.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1223 on: November 23, 2016, 08:34:04 PM »
The warm end of November will seal a second place behind 2015. The big difference this year is that the SSTA are lower than they were last year in November when El Niño was at its peak. The atmosphere this year hasn't been able to overpower the lower SSTs why a new November record is out o the bounds IMO.

ASLRs prediction of +1,25o above pre-industrial is probably a good estimation. Personally, I'm inclined to believe we'll see an anomaly of about +1,20o above pre-industrial for this November.

All in all, with a probable outcome of a November being 0,95-1,00o above the 1951-1980 average, the odds are pretty good that we'll see an annual anomaly of more than +1,00oC above the 1951-1980 period.

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1224 on: November 24, 2016, 07:15:28 PM »
Here is the latest GISS estimate
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1225 on: November 29, 2016, 10:01:37 PM »
Eric Fisher:  November will go down with above average temperatures for nearly all of North America.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/803352601064574976
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charles_oil

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1226 on: November 30, 2016, 12:24:16 AM »
Found a good set of clear graphs at the European

http://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/october-2016

Copernicus is the European Union’s earth observation programme

Environmental information is of crucial importance. It helps to understand how our planet and its climate are changing, the role played by human activities in these changes and how these will influence our daily lives.

The well-being and security of future generations are more than ever dependent on everyone’s actions and on the decisions being made today on environmental policies.
 
To take the right actions, decision makers, businesses and citizens must be provided with reliable and up-to-date information on how our planet and its climate are changing.

The Copernicus programme, previously known as GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security), provides this.

Copernicus consists of a complex set of systems which collect data from multiple sources: earth observation satellites and in situ sensors such as ground stations, airborne and sea-borne sensors. It processes these data and provides users with reliable and up-to-date information through a set of services related to environmental and security issues.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1227 on: November 30, 2016, 12:42:42 AM »
For those who like numbers, I provide the following from Nick Stokes:

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface temp anomaly area weighted global average made 2016-11-30
Last 12 months averages
Year/Month/Anomaly
2016   Nov   0.472
2016   Oct   0.419
2016   Sep   0.475
2016   Aug   0.428
2016   Jul   0.414
2016   Jun   0.369
2016   May   0.471
2016   Apr   0.635
2016   Mar   0.783
2016   Feb   0.839
2016   Jan   0.664
2015   Dec   0.621
2015   Nov   0.513
2015   Oct   0.567
2015   Sep   0.368
2015   Aug   0.306
2015   Jul   0.164
2015   Jun   0.204
2015   May   0.275
2015   Apr   0.169
2015   Mar   0.287
2015   Feb   0.271
2015   Jan   0.209
2014   Dec   0.212
2014   Nov   0.106
2014   Oct   0.281
2014   Sep   0.241

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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1228 on: December 01, 2016, 02:33:19 PM »
Quote
For those who like numbers, I provide the following from Nick Stokes:

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface temp anomaly area weighted global average made 2016-11-30
Last 12 months averages
Year/Month/Anomaly
2016   Nov   0.472
2016   Oct   0.419
2016   Sep   0.475
2016   Aug   0.428
2016   Jul   0.414
2016   Jun   0.369
2016   May   0.471
2016   Apr   0.635
2016   Mar   0.783
2016   Feb   0.839
2016   Jan   0.664
2015   Dec   0.621
2015   Nov   0.513
2015   Oct   0.567
2015   Sep   0.368
2015   Aug   0.306
2015   Jul   0.164
2015   Jun   0.204
2015   May   0.275
2015   Apr   0.169
2015   Mar   0.287
2015   Feb   0.271
2015   Jan   0.209
2014   Dec   0.212
2014   Nov   0.106
2014   Oct   0.281
2014   Sep   0.241

I LOVE numbers.  You can see where the "meat" of the anomaly is that I highlighted.  No surprise given the timing of the El Nino.

I was also looking at some Canadian numbers last night.  I track the "new record daily highs" and "new record daily lows" going back to 1940 for Canada...and something "stuck out" to me:

Going back to 1940....I looked at the number of "new record daily LOWS" during each single MONTH.  I found only 1 month during the 1980's that had a single month with LESS THAN 10 new record daily lows.

The 1990's (all 120 months) also only had 1 month where there were less than 10 new daily record lows.

The decade of the 2000's....had 3 months with less than 10 new daily record lows.

Here in the current decade.....we already have 5 months.  And indeed....2016 ITSELF ALREADY HAS 3 MONTHS and counting.  In fact....in Canada....I would have to go back to May of 2015 to find a single month with more than 100 new daily lows.  The last several months have been less than 50 new record lows.  Usually you have a few months with more than 100 new record lows.  Those days....are disappearing.  Canada is now in its 18th STRAIGHT MONTH with new record daily lows less than 100 for the month.  The longest streak before this was 8..and that was in 2011.

As the planet...and especially the Arctic....continue to warm...new record lows will become more and more scarce as we would expect.  It gets tougher and tougher to set a new record low given the climactic conditions.

What will be of special interest to me.....is the current period we are in....given there is now no El Nino....how long will any "plateauing" of atmospheric temperatures be?  I suspect....given the conditions with the LOW SEA ICE GLOBABLLY.....that any "plateau" or "rest period" from record high temperatures globally.....will not be very long.  That we will again keep chugging up the chart of higher temperatures.

And this is being born out as I look at the temperatures and records of Canada....and as I think of the record warmth now being felt on Svalbard this year.  Does not bode well for conditions directly ahead of us.

« Last Edit: December 01, 2016, 03:19:44 PM by Buddy »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1229 on: December 01, 2016, 03:02:04 PM »
And one other thing I would note on Abrupt SLR's post....now that I look at it again:

Quote
For those who like numbers, I provide the following from Nick Stokes:

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface temp anomaly area weighted global average made 2016-11-30
Last 12 months averages
Year/Month/Anomaly
2016   Nov   0.472
2016   Oct   0.419
2016   Sep   0.475
2016   Aug   0.428
2016   Jul   0.414
2016   Jun   0.369
2016   May   0.471

If I were a "technical chartist" looking at the above months.....I would SUGGEST that those last 4 months "look" like a plateau.  And as I said before....I don't think that plateau will last very much longer.  I suspect....given the climactic fundamentals NOW in play (low sea ice, Svalbard record warmth, ocean temps, etc).....that we will continue to slowly rise in the not-too-distant MONTHS.

« Last Edit: December 01, 2016, 03:16:59 PM by Buddy »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1230 on: December 01, 2016, 04:20:28 PM »
When you start to chase a rabbit....you never know what rabbit hole(s) it will lead you to:

Now...I took a look at the US with regards to looking at the trend of months with less than a certain threshold of NEW RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPS.

Remember....the basic physics tell us that because of the CO2 in the atmosphere holding in heat...that NIGHTS are warming FASTER than the warmth of DAYS is increasing.  So nights are warming faster...which will of course make it harder and harder to set NEW RECORD DAILY LOWS, because those lows are usually set at NIGHT TIME.  And it also tells us that RECORD DAILY MININUMS HIGH's (I know...it get's confusing)...continue to push higher because the nights are warming.

There are 4 records that are tracked:

RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM HIGHS (the highest HIGH TEMP for a day)
RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM LOWS  (the highest LOW TEMP for a day)
RECORD DAILY MINIMUM HIGHS (the lowest HIGH TEMP for a day)
RECORD DAILY MINIMUM LOWS (the lowest LOW TEMP for a day)


So in the US....since it has a LOT MORE WEATHER STATIONS than Canada....I used a threshold of 1,000 new record daily low temperatures.  And I looked for months that were BELOW that level....and I looked for the LONGEST STRING OF MONTHS IN A ROW.  And I looked going back as far as 1930.

The following results will likely surprise NOBODY.  There was a string in 1998 and the first part of 1999 that had 9 months in a row (Yes...El Nino years).

Then....that record string of months in a row was next broken in 2007/2008 with 11 months in a row of less than 1,000 new record daily low temps.

And now.....even though we are out of El Nino now....and in a mild La Nina....we are currently working on our 20th straight month with less than 1,000 new record low temps.  In fact....in that 20 months....only one of those months had more than 600 new record low temps (817 to be exact).  All the other months in that string are below 600.

So yes....nights are DEFINITELY WARMING UP QUICKLY.  And RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS (usually set after dark) are breaking records at a faster pace than RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPS (during the daylight).

============================================================

NOTE:  One of the STRANGEST THINGS temperature wise I have ever seen......was in the very warm spring of 2012 in the US and Canada.  It was on March 21st in Marquette, Michigan....that Marquette set incredible new temperature records.  See if you can follow this:

The OLD record MAXIMUM HIGH for Marquette for that day was 49 degrees F.

The NEW record MAXIMUM HIGH was 81 degrees F....beating the old record high by 32 F.
It was so warm that day....that the MINIMUM LOW for the day of 52 degrees F...was 3 degrees WARMER THAN THE OLD RECORD HIGH of 49.  Read that again....and let that soak in.

That is the sort of strange reality we are already in.....and now we will be getting deeper and deeper into our new reality as time goes by and all sorts of strange and incredible things will happen.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1231 on: December 01, 2016, 04:21:14 PM »
And one other thing I would note on Abrupt SLR's post....now that I look at it again:

Quote
For those who like numbers, I provide the following from Nick Stokes:

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface temp anomaly area weighted global average made 2016-11-30
Last 12 months averages
Year/Month/Anomaly
2016   Nov   0.472
2016   Oct   0.419
2016   Sep   0.475
2016   Aug   0.428
2016   Jul   0.414
2016   Jun   0.369
2016   May   0.471

If I were a "technical chartist" looking at the above months.....I would SUGGEST that those last 4 months "look" like a plateau.  And as I said before....I don't think that plateau will last very much longer.  I suspect....given the climactic fundamentals NOW in play (low sea ice, Svalbard record warmth, ocean temps, etc).....that we will continue to slowly rise in the not-too-distant MONTHS.

Perhaps I wasn't clear in my original post that the number 0.472 for November 2016 was a temporary value thru two days before the date of the post.  The November 2016 through Nov 29 2016 is 0.478 and should be higher still through Nov 30th.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1232 on: December 01, 2016, 04:30:06 PM »
Quote
Perhaps I wasn't clear in my original post that the number 0.472 for November 2016 was a temporary value thru two days before the date of the post.  The November 2016 through Nov 29 2016 is 0.478 and should be higher still through Nov 30th.

That makes the SHORT TERM PLATEAU even more vulnerable (since November is even higher than first reported).  Meaning....it is just that much more likely to "break" to the upside.  In other words.....is the zig-zagging of temperatures over this 4 months going to break to the  UPSIDE....or are we going to continue "zig zagging" for a few more months?

I don't have the answer to that....since it is a future event....all I look at is the numbers in front of me....and they tell me we have a slightly greater chance of breaking UP. 

And...unfortunately...that goes along with the FUNDAMENTAL CLIMATIC EVENTS now taking place....which is the REAL DRIVER of what happens in the future (the "chart" or "technicals" are only a representation of what HAS indeed taken place).

I'm going to keep my eyes peeled in the sea ice level and the global temps.  We have less sea ice...so we have more heat being absorbed by the oceans.  We all know that...we just don't know WHERE that extra heat is going.  We know some of it is melting ice.....we also know that some of it may increase atmospheric temps....and some is warming the southern ocean.  We just don't know WHERE in the SHORT TERM that additional heat is going to manifest itself....and which "combination" of things will be most impacted.

« Last Edit: December 01, 2016, 04:53:12 PM by Buddy »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1233 on: December 01, 2016, 05:03:56 PM »
One final "note" on this "plateau" issue that I raised.  We could plateau for a few months....or for many months...or for years.  It is....again...a FUTURE EVENT.  We don't "know".

But we all know what is happening FUNDAMENTALLY with the ice right now.  And it is an "unusual and infrequent event" if we look back at the last 40 years.

It is but one more step we are taking into the "wilderness of global warming"....and we....as well as climate scientists....can only take EDUCATED GUESSES BACKED UP BY THE LAWS OF SCIENCE....to guess WHEN things happen.  All of us know the DIRECTION....what we don't know...is the SPEED (the second derivative).  And I happen to believe that most people...including most scientists...are underestimating the speed that things will happen as we melt down the ice sheets.

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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1234 on: December 01, 2016, 05:08:05 PM »
From NASA GISS values for November, I think it's fairly safe to say that November 2016 will end up being the second to fifth warmest on record. Personally, I think the second place is the most reasonable outcome given the warmth in especially Arctic and North America and to some degree also in Antarctica.

/LMV

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1235 on: December 01, 2016, 05:40:34 PM »
So are we seeing annual records following daily records with Winters warming faster than summers? Maybe Autumn/Winter/Spring warming at a faster rate than summer?

That would mean that we may see temps continue to plateau through northern Winter/Spring with Polar extreme warmth skewing temps upward?

I'm curious due to the Deniers insistence, during the Nino, that temps would rapidly fall away after the nino faded and we encountered a 'balancing Nina'.  Though I continually warned them that nino warmth was only a part of the record warmth they were adamant we would fall back to 98' scale temps?

For me the flip of the IPO and the reducing of Asian 'dimming' would , on their own, show a warming trend similar to those of the 80's/90's ( when out forced dimming was reducing and IPO was again positive?) but then the 'Arctic impact'  might ensure that we were warming at a faster rate than the 80's/90's that did not have those impacts?

To me the time it takes for 'warming' to overtake the record 'Nino' year will be the thing to show deniers just how altered we are over the past two decades?
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1236 on: December 01, 2016, 05:54:01 PM »
Quote
I'm curious due to the Deniers insistence, during the Nino, that temps would rapidly fall away after the nino faded and we encountered a 'balancing Nina'.  Though I continually warned them that nino warmth was only a part of the record warmth they were adamant we would fall back to 98' scale temps?

Two things:

(1)  Remember....some of the "deniers" are paid deniers.....so Joe Bastardi, Dr. Singer, Willie Soon, John Christy, Roy Spencer.....etc....etc....those folks are going to keep denying as long as their "pay checks" keep coming (consulting fees.....speaking fees....."weather forecast fees".....etc).  So they won't quit until people stop paying them to lie.

(2)  You may not have long to wait.  This year could be quite telling.  You may get your answer in a matter of months.  We'll have to wait and watch over the next several months.  But there is a lot of sun hitting the "non-ice/snow" portions of the earth right now.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1237 on: December 01, 2016, 09:54:09 PM »

I really should have been more careful.  The "4 month plateau" really is a "7 month plateau".  The last 7 months anomaly has been pretty "tight" within .369 and .478.


2016   Nov   0.478
2016   Oct   0.419
2016   Sep   0.475
2016   Aug   0.428
2016   Jul   0.414
2016   Jun   0.369
2016   May   0.471


Before that....you can see the months leading UP to the plateau....which included the lead UP to the "climax high" of .839 in Feb of 2016....and then back down towards the "plateau" where we now find ourselves.

2016   Apr   0.635
2016   Mar   0.783
2016   Feb   0.839
2016   Jan   0.664
2015   Dec   0.621

So after the El Nino reached near its high...and the atmosphere was warmed....the surface anomaly has been relatively "flat".  It WILL move from this plateau of course.  And I think the likelihood is that it moves UP sometime in the coming months.  We'll see.... 
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1238 on: December 02, 2016, 01:10:10 PM »
So far in November.....in the US.....the ratio of "new record daily HIGH temperatures" to "new record daily LOW temperatures" is an astounding 63 to 1.

How astounding?  I'm glad you asked.  During the highest month ratio since 1920.....the prior record was 38 to 1 during February of 1992.  During the "crazy" month of March 2012...the ratio was 32 to 1 (there were over 10,394 highs to 325 new lows).

So far in November.....we only have 51 new record low temps in the US (that ties the old record of 51 from Feb of 1992).  But we have 3,223 new record highs....and back in Feb 1992 there were only 1,960 new highs.

Again....it is the LACK of "new record lows" because the NIGHTS are staying warmer that we are likely going to break the old "ratio record" this month....with one more day of data to come.



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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1239 on: December 02, 2016, 02:17:18 PM »
Buddy - surely by definition it becomes harder and harder to get new record figures?  I know you are measuring both and the discrepancy says something, but it may be saying more about the number / location / duration / quality of weather stations than the actual rise / rate of rise ?
A thought - could there be some consistent normalising of the statistics - for example losing records from > x years ago?  Maybe use say "in the last 20 years" as a rolling baseline to see a clearer rate of rise / fall (???).   

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1240 on: December 02, 2016, 03:00:28 PM »
Quote
Buddy - surely by definition it becomes harder and harder to get new record figures?  I know you are measuring both and the discrepancy says something, but it may be saying more about the number / location / duration / quality of weather stations than the actual rise / rate of rise ?

A thought - could there be some consistent normalising of the statistics - for example losing records from > x years ago?  Maybe use say "in the last 20 years" as a rolling baseline to see a clearer rate of rise / fall (???).
 

By definition, IF temperatures were RELATIVELY STABLE....then the ratio of "new daily record highs" to "new daily record lows" would be about 1.0 (over longer periods of time).  It would vary from month-to-month and year-to-year based on natural variability.  But over LONGER PERIODS OF TIME....it would be around 1.0 (give or take a couple tenth's).

But the most OBVIOUS "finger print" of global warming in looking at records....is the LACK OF RECORD LOW TEMPS because the nights are warming faster than the days (ie...the difference between the man and min temperatures is narrowing).

The chart below (please give me a headsup if you can't access the link) shows the ratio over longer periods of time.  And it shows two things:  (1) the ratios of all 3 countries are going UP (2) the ratios for Canada and Russia are higher than the US (because of Arctic amplification).

Also...when looking at the chart keep in mind that it is basically a look at the SECOND DERIVATIVE (the RATE of change).  For instance....in the US you can see that the RATE of increase in the 1930's...1940's....and 1950's....the RATE was dropping, but you were still having more record highs than record lows.  And temperatures were rising....they just weren't GOING UP AS FAST.

In the US....pollution was a BIGGER and BIGGER issue as the US continued to expand its manufacturing base from the 1930's onward and emitted more pollution (one of the larger factors in DECREASING THE RATE of increased warming from the 1930's to mid 1970's was the INCREASED AMOUNT OF PARTICULATE IN THE AIR BLOCKING OUT THE SUN).

Then....the "clean air act" kicked in (yes...a REPUBLICAN :o named NIXON passed the clean air act and started to clean up the air).  And THAT....was a significant cause of the INCREASE IN RATE starting in the mid 1970's:  Cleaning up the air ).  And yes....as China starts to clean up its air.....it will SPEED UP GLOBAL WARMING as well....only on a moderately larger scale than happened in the US in the late 1970's and early 1980's.
 
http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-daily-high-temps-to.html

Maybe at some point in the future....I'll put together a chart shows the changes in time of the NIGHT TIME TEMPS.  That chart will show the ratios even HIGHER than the ratios of the above charts.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1241 on: December 02, 2016, 08:04:45 PM »
Nick Stokes has now posted the NCEP/NCAR daily GMSTA through Nov 30 2016, resulting in a final value for Nov of 0.48C; & per the attached plot, one would need to go back to April 2016 to find an anom. that large:
« Last Edit: December 02, 2016, 08:24:25 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1242 on: December 02, 2016, 08:22:22 PM »
Quote
one would need to back to April 2016 to find an anom. that large:

AbruptSLR:  I think you had posted this chart back in August or September and then I had noted that we might "plateau" and eventually (after a SHORT plateau).."head back up."

Not good news....
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1243 on: December 02, 2016, 09:06:22 PM »
Climate Reanalyser predicts this warmish plateau will continue until Dec 5. Then Dec 6-10 will be quite a bit colder - 0.5degC colder. So maybe the plateau will continue or even decline a bit.

A cold snap to thicken up the ice would be welcome (or unwelcome from a continued complacency perspective).

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1244 on: December 03, 2016, 03:28:39 PM »
As reported by a few weather sites....the ratio of daily record warm days to daily record cold days in the US did indeed set a record.

My numbers do NOT include "ties"....only absolute new records...so it is just slightly different (but only slightly).

My numbers ended up 59 to 1 ratio in the US.  That was...by FAR a new record.

Note that...in Canada...the ratio in November was 221 to 1.  And no...this was not a record ratio.  There was one month back in the January of 2006 that only had 1 new record low...and the ratio was 667 to 1.

ALSO NOTE:  In Russia....where the cold Arctic air has been pushed down to.....the ratio of COLD RECORD LOWS.....to WARM RECORD HIGHS (the opposite ratio of Canada and US) has been a little over 6 to 1.


US:                 HIGH to LOW ratio of 59:1
CANADA:        HIGH to LOW ratio of 222:1
RUSSIA:         LOW to HIGH ratio of 6:1


So yes....Russia has been cold.  But not as cold....as Canada and the US have been warm.  Not by a long shot...

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1245 on: December 03, 2016, 04:20:06 PM »
Here's what a bar chart of the last 13 months ratio looks like in the US:

Keep in mind that December 2015, March 2015, and October of 2016......all have a ratio of greater than 15:1.  So those were VERY warm months.  But November's ratio is "off the charts" because of a LACK OF LOW TEMPS....not so much as an extremely high number of high temps.  The number of high temps WAS on the "high side"....but it is the absolute LACK of low temps that really throws the ratio higher.

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-daily-high-temps-to_30.html
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1246 on: December 03, 2016, 06:39:04 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Blowout: U.S. record highs beat record lows by a staggering 51-to-1 ratio in November".  Don't forget that climate change has a non-linear impact on surface temperatures, as demonstrated by the US records set in November 2016:

http://mashable.com/2016/12/01/temperature-records-ratio-november/#nFrtScvwkaqp


Extract: "A 2009 study found that the record highs to lows ratio was 2-to-1 for the lower 48 states during the 2000s, and this disparity has only grown since then. Projections show the imbalance increasing in coming decades as global warming continues.

No individual month shows this better — and to a ridiculous degree — than November 2016.
New, preliminary numbers from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) show that during November, the ratio of record highs (4401) to record lows (87) was a shocking 51-to-1. "
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1247 on: December 03, 2016, 08:30:02 PM »
According to CDAS, the Niño 3.4 value for 12z December 3 has soared up to +0,018oC. For the Niño 3-area, the value was +0,102o while the Niño 4-value is up to -0,16oC.

The U_Albany forecasts variable wind conditions over the next week. And no strong trades either. That makes it likely that we'll see a return to neutral values over that time. And the SOI values continue to be rather "low".

IMO, it is quite likely that we'll see a "warm up" of the Pacific over the next month or so. And it remains highly uncertain whether the ONI-index will meet NOAAs requirement of an ONI-value of -0,5 or lower over five consequent 3-monthperiods will be met.


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1248 on: December 03, 2016, 09:34:32 PM »
Quote
IMO, it is quite likely that we'll see a "warm up" of the Pacific over the next month or so. And it remains highly uncertain whether the ONI-index will meet NOAAs requirement of an ONI-value of -0,5 or lower over five consequent 3-monthperiods will be met.

Agreed....

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2013/02/sea-surface-temperature-anomaly.html

The past couple of weeks several spots in the Pacific have been "warming up".  And, not related to La Nina, but the Atlantic SST's are slightly warming.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1249 on: December 05, 2016, 06:05:52 PM »
According to Copernicus, November 2016 SLIGHTLY ECLIPSED the exceptionally warm November 2015(!!!)

THAT my arctic friends are a huge statement, given that the SSTs are lower this November compared to last year when El Niño was it peak!

The data from Copernicus are calculated by ERA-Interim.

Link to Copernicus: https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/november-2016



Courtesy: Copernicus