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Author Topic: Population: Public Enemy No. 1  (Read 84027 times)

Darvince

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #350 on: July 08, 2017, 10:56:34 PM »
Just because it is technically possible does not mean society will actually implement the technology. In 25 years, science will be far more focused on desperate geoengineering in an ultimately futile attempt to halt accelerating global warming.
My beliefs on where we're going re: climate change are much closer to those of Bob Wallace than the forum median. I think we don't know that yet wrt your expectations, but if the 2020s don't see sufficient climate action, that we are probably going to see it. I also don't think that climate change is literally unstoppable, because we did it to ourselves. Sure, I think there are feedbacks that are probably going to cause double the damage than would happen in their absence, but that does not dictate that society is most definitely going to collapse from global warming. Again, there's always robots for that. ;)

TerryM

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #351 on: July 08, 2017, 11:13:54 PM »
Although this is not the thread for it I see "an exploitative profit-based capitalism" as a much larger problem than either high or low population shifts.
The inefficiencies inherent in capitalism, combined with the pressure that climate change adds to the mix, is causing the haves to strike out blindly to preserve what they see as theirs, while the have-nots fight for their very existence.
If we all pulled together, as they have in Cuba, there would be enough for everyone. However, we've all been convinced that dog eat dog capitalism is the only way to get ahead no matter what this does to those less fortunate.


Apologize for the OT rant
Terry

Neven

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #352 on: July 08, 2017, 11:54:38 PM »
Ever read Aldous Huxley's Brave New World?
Yes, actually. I don't believe that because of its depiction in the book that the technology by itself is a horrible thing, but I also don't believe it will ever be widely necessary.
It's been a long time since I read the book, and at the time I was a bit of a pothead (to make reading classic literature even more fun/mindblowing  ;) ), but Huxley lets the characters explain the system quite clinically, and without judgment, in rather positive terms, very convincingly, much better than childbearing and family-induced neuroses. And remember, everyone in that ideal society is happy. But the Savage still hangs himself.

Man, I have to read that book again, this time without the weed.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #353 on: July 09, 2017, 12:18:59 AM »
...
And with that, I went and checked his Twitter feed and the culprit tweet seems conspicuously absent  ???

It's there. It is under the New Scientist tweet he replied to, not his own timeline.

Elon Musk: @newscientist The world's population is accelerating towards collapse, but few seem to notice or care
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/882939670895755264
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Paddy

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #354 on: July 09, 2017, 12:59:30 PM »
It's a very nuanced issue, but:

1) Anyone who tries to predict demographic trends in the 2070s is talking nonsense. Forecasting this kind of thing in advance is always sketchy beyond 10 years or so.

2) That said, all the countries with very low fertility rates today (Japan, South Korea, Singapore etc) don't seem to be falling any further on this index, and some are rising again slightly. So I don't anticipate any countries will go below a fertility rate of 1.2 or so, and a lot of western countries seem to be stable on rather higher rates, around or above the EU average of 1.6. Still subreplacement, but "fast enough" to keep things going.

3) The parallel question of how long life expectancy will go on rising will also play a big role in how demographic trends develop. Although I think personally that many countries are close to a peak, people have thought this before...

4) While some countries have too few children for replacement, others will go on having far too many for a good while to come. Different problems in each, and different measures required. And we shouldn't overlook either issue because of the other.

Paddy

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #355 on: July 09, 2017, 08:31:52 PM »
Incidentally, this article is worth a browse, despite the overly dramatic title: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/09/2017-the-year-we-lost-control-of-world-population-surge-london-family-planning-contraception-summit-trump

"On the eve of a landmark summit in London called to accelerate family planning progress in 69 of the world’s poorest countries, latest figures show that an eight-year programme to get contraception to more than 100 million women is way off target."

rboyd

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #356 on: July 09, 2017, 08:32:20 PM »
Why Are So Many Americans Dying Young?
A new pair of studies show why—and where—American life expectancy has grown worse in a generation.


"For the first time since the 1990s, Americans are dying at a faster rate, and they’re dying younger. A pair of new studies suggest Americans are sicker than people in other rich countries, and in some states, progress on stemming the tide of basic diseases like diabetes has stalled or even reversed. The studies suggest so-called “despair deaths”—alcoholism, drugs, and suicide—are a big part of the problem, but so is obesity, poverty, and social isolation.

American life expectancy fell by one-tenth of a year since 2014, from 78.9 to 78.8, according to a report released last week by the National Center for Health Statistics. As The Washington Post reported, the last time the life expectancy went down instead of up was in 1993, during the throes of the AIDS epidemic. Meanwhile, the number of years people are expected to live at 65 remained unchanged, suggesting people are falling ill and dying young.

The overall death rate rose by 1.2 percent in 2015, the first time since 1999. The death rates went up for white men and women and for black men, but did not change significantly for Hispanics or black women."

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/why-are-so-many-americans-dying-young/510455/

Of course, there is still legal and illegal immigration to drive an overall increase in US population.

rboyd

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #357 on: July 09, 2017, 08:43:02 PM »
Average life expectancy is set to increase in many countries by 2030

"Average life expectancy is set to increase in many countries by 2030—and will exceed 90 years in South Korea, according to new research. The study, led by scientists from Imperial College London in collaboration with the World Health Organization, analysed long-term data on mortality and longevity trends to predict how life expectancy will change in 35 industrialised countries by 2030."

"The team calculated life expectancy at birth, and predicted a baby girl born in South Korea in 2030 will expect to live 90.8 years. Life expectancy at birth for South Korean men will be 84.1 years.

Scientists once thought an average life expectancy of over 90 was impossible, explained Professor Majid Ezzati, lead researcher from the School of Public Health at Imperial: 'We repeatedly hear that improvements in human longevity are about to come to an end. Many people used to believe that 90 years is the upper limit for life expectancy, but this research suggests we will break the 90-year-barrier. I don't believe we're anywhere near the upper limit of life expectancy -if there even is one.'

Professor Ezzati explained that South Korea's high life expectancy may be due to a number of factors including good nutrition in childhood, low blood pressure, low levels of smoking, good access to healthcare, and uptake of new medical knowledge and technologies."

"The results also revealed that the USA is likely to have the lowest life expectancy at birth in 2030 among high-income countries. The nation's average life expectancy at birth of men and women in 2030 (79.5 years and 83.3 years), will be similar to that of middle-income countries like Croatia and Mexico. The research team say this may be due to a number of factors including a lack of universal healthcare, as well as the highest child and maternal mortality rate, homicide rate and obesity among high-income countries."

"The five countries with the highest life expectancy at birth for men in 2030 were: South Korea (84.1), Australia (84.0), Switzerland (84.0), Canada (83.9), Netherlands (83.7)"

Cool to be a Canadian man ....

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2017-02-average-life-countries.html



Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #358 on: July 11, 2017, 03:49:17 AM »
Wildlife is dying out due to habitat destruction, overhunting, toxic pollution, invasion by alien species and climate change. But the ultimate cause of all of these factors is “human overpopulation and continued population growth, and overconsumption, especially by the rich.”

Earth's sixth mass extinction event already under way, scientists warn
Researchers talk of ‘biological annihilation’ as new study reveals that billions of populations of animals have been lost in recent decades
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/10/earths-sixth-mass-extinction-event-already-underway-scientists-warn
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Andre

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #359 on: July 11, 2017, 05:23:20 AM »
This is the paper that the Guardian article is based on:

Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/07/05/1704949114

Abstract
The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth’s sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event.

gerontocrat

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #360 on: July 11, 2017, 12:03:36 PM »
The 6th Extinction.

To add to the gloom, when the paper says "In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges ", one should also remember that that implies all the life forms in the food chain on which those mammals depend may also have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges.

ps: Population is not Public Enemy No. 1, homo sapiens is.

pps: We are in Joni Mitchell territory, and have been for a long time (Big Yellow Taxi).

They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot
With a pink hotel, a boutique
And a swinging hot spot
Don't it always seem to go   
That you don't know what you've got
'Till it's gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot

They took all the trees
And put them in a tree museum
And they charged all the people
A dollar and a half to see 'em
Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got
'Till it's gone
They paved paradise
And they put up a parking lot

Hey farmer farmer
Put away that D.D.T. now
Give me spots on my apples
But leave me the birds and the bees
Please
Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got
'Till it's gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #361 on: July 11, 2017, 09:09:23 PM »
Elon Musk: Burning Fossil Fuels Is the 'Dumbest Experiment in History, By Far'

"If we don't find a solution to burning oil for transport, when we then run out of oil, the economy will collapse and society will come to an end.

If we know we have to get off oil no matter what, we know that is an inescapable outcome, why run this crazy experiment of changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans by adding enormous amounts of CO2 that have been buried since the Precambrian Era?

That's crazy. That's the dumbest experiment in history, by far."

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/4x3pmn/elon-musk-burning-fossil-fuels-is-the-dumbest-experiment-in-history-by-far
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wili

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #362 on: July 12, 2017, 02:43:09 PM »
Virtually everything humanity constructs provides an example of habitat destruction

You don’t need a scientist to know what’s causing the sixth mass extinction
(us)

Paul Ehrlich

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/11/sixth-mass-extinction-habitats-destroy-population
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

numerobis

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #363 on: July 12, 2017, 07:23:28 PM »
Canada is not a monolith. Here's the fertility rate by province:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/hlth85b-eng.htm

It varies from 1.4 to 1.9 in the provinces. It's over 3 in Nunavut. Live expectancy here is also quite bad. Accordingly, senior discounts start at 65, but elder discounts start at 55 for beneficiaries (Inuit people). Nunavut is just starting the demographic transition.

You'll see about the same if you break out the stats for First Nations versus the rest of the population, across Canada. Nunavut is 80% Inuit, everywhere else is just a few percent.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #364 on: July 15, 2017, 04:30:54 PM »
Unplanned birth control:  Lowered sperm counts in China.

China’s Sperm Count Problem Has Created a Billion-Dollar Market
A study in central China showed that only about 18 percent of those tested had healthy enough semen to be sperm donors in 2015. That number had been much higher at 56 percent in 2001....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/as-sperm-counts-drop-in-china-the-fertility-market-cashes-in
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #365 on: July 15, 2017, 05:32:48 PM »
Elon Musk: Burning Fossil Fuels Is the 'Dumbest Experiment in History, By Far'

"If we don't find a solution to burning oil for transport, when we then run out of oil, the economy will collapse and society will come to an end.

If we know we have to get off oil no matter what, we know that is an inescapable outcome, why run this crazy experiment of changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans by adding enormous amounts of CO2 that have been buried since the Precambrian Era?

That's crazy. That's the dumbest experiment in history, by far."

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/4x3pmn/elon-musk-burning-fossil-fuels-is-the-dumbest-experiment-in-history-by-far

And burning these fuels in ever increasing amounts is what allowed for the industrial revolution which is the very foundation of the world wide market economy that we know today. And the attendant technologies and benefits of the market economy made available to everyone is what has allowed the dramatic growth of the human population.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #366 on: July 15, 2017, 06:27:23 PM »
Elon Musk: Burning Fossil Fuels Is the 'Dumbest Experiment in History, By Far'

"If we don't find a solution to burning oil for transport, when we then run out of oil, the economy will collapse and society will come to an end.

If we know we have to get off oil no matter what, we know that is an inescapable outcome, why run this crazy experiment of changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans by adding enormous amounts of CO2 that have been buried since the Precambrian Era?

That's crazy. That's the dumbest experiment in history, by far."

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/4x3pmn/elon-musk-burning-fossil-fuels-is-the-dumbest-experiment-in-history-by-far

And burning these fuels in ever increasing amounts is what allowed for the industrial revolution which is the very foundation of the world wide market economy that we know today. And the attendant technologies and benefits of the market economy made available to everyone is what has allowed the dramatic growth of the human population.

“For instance, on the planet Earth, man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time. But conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man—for precisely the same reasons.”

― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
 ;)
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Paddy

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #367 on: July 19, 2017, 07:46:08 AM »
Some bad news on this front from the USA: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/teen-pregnancy-donald-trump-funding-cut-projects-213-million-prevent-projects-pro-life-a7844886.html

Cutting funding for family planning in rich countries is particularly problematic due to higher levels of resources consumed per additional baby.  And It's worth noting that this is also bad news on the public health and inequality fronts as well.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #368 on: July 26, 2017, 01:14:22 PM »
Nature has its own ways of adjusting population growth....

Sperm counts of Western men plummeting, analysis finds
(CNN) Sperm counts of men in North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand are plunging, according to a new analysis published Tuesday.

Among these men there has been a 52% decline in sperm concentration and a 59% decline in total sperm count over a nearly 40-year period ending in 2011, the analysis, published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, said. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/07/25/health/sperm-counts-declining-study/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #369 on: August 02, 2017, 07:51:23 PM »
Today, August 2, is Earth Overshoot Day. This means we’ve used more resources than the planet can renew in a whole year.

Each of us can help reduce our impact, by making more sustainable choices in our daily lives.

https://mobile.twitter.com/UNFCCC/status/892723378209132544/video/1

http://www.overshootday.org
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rboyd

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #370 on: August 02, 2017, 07:58:04 PM »
Until we see the overuse of the planet's resources by the rich as an assault upon the current poor, and future generations, the date will keep getting earlier. We should have individual carbon quotas, with jail time for those that wantonly exceed them. Behaviour change will then happen rapidly, and the example of the rich to the rest will be swung away from consumption.

We can do that now in a relatively consensual way, or later in a much less pleasant way.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #371 on: August 22, 2017, 06:14:08 PM »
The first linked 21 June 2017 article is entitle: "World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision", the extract and associated image indicates that we already have a world population of about 7.6 billion, and the median value for 2050 (when I expect a socio-economic collapse to begin) may well be around 9.8 billion:

https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2017-revision.html

Extract: "The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today. With roughly 83 million people being added to the world’s population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline."

See also:
https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

The second linked article argues against the use of coercive population control:

Title: "Why We Don’t Need Coercive Population Control"

https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/dont-need-coercive-population-control/

Extract: "Demographers have estimated that simply eliminating unintended births would lower Earth’s projected end-of-century population by 2-3 billion people, and this could be accomplished with exclusively voluntary policies. If such a reduction would be inadequate or too unlikely, there are other ways to reduce fertility without coercion. As my co-authors and I have noted, people can be influenced by media and by economic incentives to reduce the number of children they otherwise would have had. It is likely due to similar cultural and economic changes in developed nations that have led to their falling fertility rates in recent decades. Along with improvements in gender equity, healthcare access, and family planning education, non-coercively influencing attitudes and choices about family size could be a powerful tool for reducing population growth."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

mustangchef

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #372 on: September 23, 2017, 01:04:18 AM »
ya i knew this chick in Ann Arbor that was into some movement {no one having  babies and letting the human race die out }
she smoked too. Funny , she was kinda sexy.
sometimes

rboyd

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #373 on: October 01, 2017, 06:03:10 PM »
Africa's Population Will Soar Dangerously Unless Women Are More Empowered

"The U.N. has in recent years continually raised its midline projection for 2100 world population, from 9.1 billion in a 2004 estimate to 11.2 billion today. Almost all of the unanticipated increase comes from Africa."

Fertility rates are not dropping as expected in Africa, while death rates have fallen. The result is that the vast majority of population growth will be in the Africa, mostly in the some of the poorest countries in the world. UN estimates now put the Africa population at between 3-6 billion in 2100 depending on growth rates - previously they had assumed 2 billion. Of course, the probability of extensive social collapse and widespread famine before we get there is extremely high. With an extremely young population, a lot of violence can be expected.

North Africa seems to have lowered its population growth rate to 2%ish, and South Africa is now below 2%. In between though, very high growth rates - many in the specific areas that climate change will negatively affect. A good example - Nigeria already has 186 million people (under 100million 20 years ago), and with a 2.6% growth rate will double every 28 years - so nearly 400 million by the mid 2040's. Uganda's population is growing at over 3% a year (doubles every two decades, now at 40 million)

In 40% of the world's nations, the birth rate is already at or below replacement level (2.1) while in Africa it is still at 4.7.

Also a big issue for possible population migration: "As many as 37 percent of young adults in sub-Saharan Africa say they want to move to another country, mostly because of a lack of employment."

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/africa-s-population-will-soar-dangerously-unless-women-are-more-empowered/

There is quite a convincing case that the rapid population growth with a limited supply of land was a significant factor in the Rwanda genocide, although there were other significant factors as well. The same kindling for conflict is growing in many places in Africa with the combination of population growth and usable land/yields decreasing (overuse, climate change).

"As with other genocides in the world, the one in Rwanda was complex with multidimensional causes and effects. Environmental causes, such as land scarcity, the increasing pressures of population on the land only aggravated the circumstances that led to the genocide"

http://www.accord.org.za/ajcr-issues/%EF%BF%BCenvironmental-causes-and-impacts-of-the-genocide-in-rwanda/

Given how dirt poor all of these extra people will be though, they will have little impact on climate change. It will still be the growth in wealth in China and India that will keep emissions high without radical action.

Alexander555

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #374 on: October 01, 2017, 07:55:14 PM »
That population growth in Africa will be the end of Europe. They already walk in by the thousands every day. And they will all bring their brothers and sisters in. RIP europe.

wili

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #375 on: October 01, 2017, 10:43:08 PM »
Or it's savior? Since many Euro nations show negative population growth...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Paddy

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #376 on: October 02, 2017, 05:45:54 AM »
RIP Europe? Seriously? I live in one of the most ethnically mixed cities in Europe or anywhere (London) and it's very much alive.

Also, contraceptive access is finally on the way up, although there's a lot of progress still to be made: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/nov/01/contraceptive-rates-poorest-countries-leap-by-30-million-users-in-four-years-family-planning-2020-report

Child marriage is also (painfully slowly) on the way down: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/immersive-story/2017/08/22/educating-girls-ending-child-marriage

And female enrolment in education is on the way up: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/gender/chapter3/chapter3.html

We're moving in the right direction. It's just slow.

oren

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #377 on: October 02, 2017, 09:16:15 AM »
Sadly, I believe that for Africa this slow pace of improvement will not be enough, and that the population bomb will explode in large scale wars and famines well before the end of the century.

TerryM

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #378 on: October 02, 2017, 07:45:53 PM »

Given how dirt poor all of these extra people will be though, they will have little impact on climate change. It will still be the growth in wealth in China and India that will keep emissions high without radical action.


Population growth remains popular however as it is the only metric that can't be blamed on the old white males that own our media. 8)


Terry

Alexander555

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #379 on: October 02, 2017, 09:32:06 PM »
That's questionable Terry. In the 60's we were with 2 billion, today with 7,6 billion. Who has been driving that globalisation ?

rboyd

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #380 on: October 02, 2017, 11:13:57 PM »
In 1960 the global population was 3 billion, in 1970 3.7 billion.

Biggest growth since then was in Asia - China, India, Indonesia etc. as well as Africa. Asia's birth rates have now fallen back, so the biggest driver is now Africa (and Pakistan and Bangladesh which will both be climate change hot spots).

wili

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #381 on: October 02, 2017, 11:18:08 PM »
Bangladesh birth rate (Now 2.14) has dropped dramatically and is now below India's and is below replacement levels (for third world countries).

This was the result mostly of programs aimed intentionally to reduce birthrates mostly through improving the lives of women. If that can be done in Bangladesh, presumably it can also be done in Pakistan and in many countries in Africa. There is nothing inevitable about it. 
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #382 on: October 02, 2017, 11:54:57 PM »
The first two attached images provide projections from the World3 model (see the linked pdf & the linked Wikipedia article that indicates that while birth rates dropped fast than Limits to Growth assumed, so did the death rates) both showing model runs about 40-years after Limits to Growth was first published in the 1970's.  Both images show a normalized peak in population circa 2050.

Title: "40 years after Limits to Growth The World3 system dynamics model and its impacts"

http://www.wrforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Limits-to-growth.pdf

&

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3

Extract: "At least one study, however, claims that "30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the 'standard run' scenario" produced by the World3 model."

The third image shows the 2017 UN world population projection, which shows a projected median population of 9.8 billion people by 2050.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wili

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #383 on: October 03, 2017, 12:11:40 AM »
Those last two graphs differ rather dramatically.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #384 on: October 03, 2017, 12:49:06 AM »
Those last two graphs differ rather dramatically.

The main difference is that the first two plots compare population X consumption per capita vs the Earth's Degraded Carrying Capacity (Overshoot Day of August 2 in 2017) while the last plot assumes that population growth is not limited by the Earth's Carrying Capacity.  The attached image is a cartoon illustration of this point.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wili

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #385 on: October 03, 2017, 02:56:42 AM »
Thanks for the explanation (and cool graphs) ASLR.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Paddy

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #386 on: October 18, 2017, 03:16:01 PM »
One bit of trivia that may interest people here: in the latest year for which we have data (2015), life expectancy actually declined both in the USA (from 78.9 to 78.8) and in the EU (from 80.9 to 80.6).  This is just a one year dip so far, in what was previously a steady, if slowing, upwards trend, but is it possible we may be getting close to a life expectancy ceiling now, pending significant medical advances and/or public health improvements?

If so, and life expectancy is going to stick around the 80 mark rather than rising further to 90 or beyond, there are obvious implications for total future population forecasts.

EDIT: And while most of the rest of the world has a slightly lower life expectancy, the bulk of the eorld's population has now caught up much if the way to the peri-80 point at which the EU and USA may now be getting stuck (worldwide, the average life expectancy at birth is now 71.4).

EDIT 2: However, the fact that life expectancy continues to rise in world champions at not dying like Hong Kong or Japan shows that this ceiling can still be pushed up at least as far as the 83.7 mark.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2017, 03:59:19 PM by Paddy »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #387 on: October 18, 2017, 05:41:35 PM »
Although this is not the thread for it I see "an exploitative profit-based capitalism" as a much larger problem than either high or low population shifts.
The inefficiencies inherent in capitalism, combined with the pressure that climate change adds to the mix, is causing the haves to strike out blindly to preserve what they see as theirs, while the have-nots fight for their very existence.
If we all pulled together, as they have in Cuba, there would be enough for everyone. However, we've all been convinced that dog eat dog capitalism is the only way to get ahead no matter what this does to those less fortunate.


Apologize for the OT rant
Terry

Not so off topic.

While I won't rule out that a planet wide shift to subsistence living might allow us to support the current population and the special period in Cuba demonstrates what can be accomplished in a very short time out of necessity, I am skeptical that the wealthy on the planet will agree to a life without toys.

I still flash back on a bumper sticker on a large, club cab pickup truck that I saw several years ago. (I live in Chicago.)

"He who dies with the most toys wins."

This says all you need to know about Americans.

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #388 on: October 18, 2017, 10:06:51 PM »

"He who dies with the most toys wins."

This says all you need to know about Americans.
As much as I enjoy bashing Americans, I've seen the same attitude here in Canada, and I suspect we'd find it in much of the Western (and Eastern) World.
I think there was a time when greed was seen as a sin, but that was long, long ago and far, far away. :'(
Terry


oren

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #389 on: October 29, 2017, 11:06:51 AM »
If we went back to subsistence living we could grow to a population of 20bn. And then what? We'd be up against the planetary limits again. It's not that population per se is the only problem, but there's no denying it's a very significant problem.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #390 on: October 29, 2017, 03:35:29 PM »
If we went back to subsistence living we could grow to a population of 20bn. And then what? We'd be up against the planetary limits again. It's not that population per se is the only problem, but there's no denying it's a very significant problem.

We need to shift to subsistence living and simultaneously get a whole lot smarter.

I won't hold my breath.

bligh8

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #391 on: November 17, 2017, 04:06:28 PM »
I’ve done a fair amount of traveling this year, by plane, car and sailboat.  The population explosion was never more evident than it was this year in the Caribbean.  There was a cattle car type of moving folks within and around the airport.  There was one check-out area for fast (garbage) food, four cash registers with at least 15 people in line moving at the speed of light. Once out of the airport facility there was row after row of taxis and ferryboats dispersing travelers around the islands. Once on-board our sailing vessel and sailing about the islands I could not help but notice all the Dive boats all lined up with 50 to 80 air tanks ready to take folks into the underwater wonder world.  For my own part I was snorkeling behind Peter, Norman, St. Johns and Yost Van Dyke islands on reefs that I had visited many times before over the last 35 years.  Sadly this year I saw many more dive tanks awaiting divers than I did tropical fish.  The once staggeringly beautiful reefs were, for the most part .. dead.  And the new generation of divers had no idea of what was once there.   

Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #392 on: December 16, 2017, 08:16:17 PM »
An Incomplete Timeline of What We Tried
Working back from human extinction.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/xwvgeq/an-incomplete-timeline-of-what-we-tried
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #393 on: December 17, 2017, 03:03:00 PM »
“Japan has entered a vicious cycle of low fertility and low spending that has led to trillions in lost GDP and a population decline of 1 million people, all within just the past five years. If left unabated, experts forecast severe economic downturn and a breakdown in the fabric of social life.”

'This is death to the family': Japan's fertility crisis is creating economic and social woes never seen before
http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-4
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #394 on: December 17, 2017, 04:55:40 PM »
Finally some country is reversing the global population trend, and everyone starts screaming. Young people are not supposed to take the burden the old people left for them, and populations don't have to grow endlessly. Think of all the money Japan is saving by avoiding the need to build more schools, housing, roads etc., with this money they should hire some foreign nursing professionals from the Philippines or wherever, take care of the elderly, and leave the young people to live a normal life without excessive taxation. But of course the national debt - a wonderful method of the old robbing the young - prevents that. The economy must "grow", with endless fiscal and monetary stimulus driving up real estate prices and increasing the debt ever higher. Why should a young person in Japan join this scam? No wonder they choose to act as they do and leave childbirth to others.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #395 on: December 17, 2017, 05:08:20 PM »
Capitalism is a growth system, absolutely dependent on a growing population to consume all of the shit we make. A shrinking population will bring down the entire crumbling edifice.

Bernard

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #396 on: December 17, 2017, 10:13:03 PM »
Finally some country is reversing the global population trend, and everyone starts screaming.
Japan is far from being alone in this case, a lot of European countries have a demography close to zero growth or under. See figures for e.g., Germany, Spain, Italy. And this happened in a couple of generations. When I was a child in the 60's, Italy and Spain were famous in France for their numerous catholic families, and were countries of strong emigration. Spain population has now stalled, sustained only by immigration (which Japan is not at all akin to accept). Similar trend in Germany, which supports a massive immigration, not without problems.
Japan is in fact a singular case, with pathologic demographics. If a sustainable approach to demographics is ever to be found, Europe will be the place.

See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Spain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany

Also http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
Sort the table by fertility rate, to see that countries like Portugal, Greece, Spain and Poland have a fertility rate of 1.3 slightly lower than Japan, Italy, Austria and Germany at 1.4.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 10:30:07 PM by Bernard »

rboyd

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #397 on: December 17, 2017, 10:31:58 PM »
Our concept of retirement came into place when life expectancies were significantly less, there is no reason why people should not be supported in continuing to have productive lives - including the "not to old" looking after the "older".

In Japan, they also have a huge under-utilized resource - women. If women were given much more equal job opportunities as men (say as in Europe) overall output per worker would significantly increase over time. Add the usual ongoing efficiency gains and there is no reason why the economy could not remain stable while the population shrinks a small amount each year.

There would be less demand for housing, which would reduce the cost and get rid of multiple areas of non-productive rent seeking (land speculation, bank lending, realtors). Also, less demand for food etc., so a greater ecological balance The debt could be cancelled by a move to 100% reserves and non-debt government-created money, but that would be fought by the bankers and their US backers.

In North America, the large-scale immigration from countries that have lower ecological footprints and emissions is counter-productive. For Canada the Tar Sands and large-scale immigration both stand in the way of reducing carbon emissions. Instead, we pave over class-1 farmland to make way for yet more housing subdivisions.

Paddy

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #398 on: December 21, 2017, 01:41:44 PM »
Life expectancy has dropped for a second year running in the USA between 2015 and 2016. Only by 0.1 years, but this might represent a break in the previous consistent rise in life expectancy in the West, especially considered the parallel drop in the EU between 2014 and 2015. What's interesting, and a little tragic, however, is that the drop comes primarily due to rising mortality among young adults, with a particular rise in drug overdose deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db293.htm

This may suggest a lower peak for life expectancy among both western countries and other countries adopting western lifestyles than had been forecast, potentially. In turn, this would lead to smaller populations

However, the drop in life expectancy may well be reversible if, for starters, the opioid epidemic in the USA is addressed,  and it's worth noting that the USA is well off any hard limit on modern life expectancy, as Japan etc are so far ahead, so life expectancy may very well rise again.

pileus

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #399 on: December 21, 2017, 03:16:28 PM »
Life expectancy has dropped for a second year running in the USA between 2015 and 2016. Only by 0.1 years, but this might represent a break in the previous consistent rise in life expectancy in the West, especially considered the parallel drop in the EU between 2014 and 2015. What's interesting, and a little tragic, however, is that the drop comes primarily due to rising mortality among young adults, with a particular rise in drug overdose deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db293.htm

This may suggest a lower peak for life expectancy among both western countries and other countries adopting western lifestyles than had been forecast, potentially. In turn, this would lead to smaller populations

However, the drop in life expectancy may well be reversible if, for starters, the opioid epidemic in the USA is addressed,  and it's worth noting that the USA is well off any hard limit on modern life expectancy, as Japan etc are so far ahead, so life expectancy may very well rise again.

For the US the opioid epidemic is also part of the broader “deaths of despair” dynamic, that includes fatalities from alcohol related causes and suicide.  And it’s easy to see suicide rates increasing as automation accelerates and people across all skill sets and education levels are made obsolete and without traditional purpose in the 2020s and beyond.

The more significant variable wrt US (and other developed Western countries) population is birth rates.  In the US white birth rates have been flat or decelerating.  The only thing keeping population afloat and the workforce growing is the birth rate from immigrants, who are of course under constant assault from the current federal administration and by extension many of those same whites who aren’t having babies.  The irony runs thick.