Mauna Loa CO2

[JimD]

ASLR

I was under the impression that a large percentage of the bouys were no longer in service and new ones were not receiving funding.

An ocean-monitoring system that extends across the tropical Pacific is collapsing, depriving scientists of data on a region that influences global weather and climate trends.

Nearly half of the moored buoys in the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array have failed in the past two years, crippling an early-warning system for the warming and cooling events in the eastern equatorial Pacific, known respectively as El Niño and La Niña. Scientists are now collecting data from just 40% of the array......

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582

[AbruptSLR]

JimD,

You are correct for the TAO array, but the Argo network is currently very robust and active.

ASLR

[pikaia]

March 12: 400.62. An increase of over 1ppm over the previous day!

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

[crandles]

March 12: 400.62. An increase of over 1ppm over the previous day!

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

over 2ppm more than week commencing 2 March 398.52.

Wouldn't be surprised if quality control rejects that preliminary reading. Might be the start of one of those spikes that occur from time to time.

[ghoti]

Maybe but they just tweeted 401.62 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 12-Mar-2014 so more than one reading.

[werther]

Bad news from Hawaii, indeed:

The Keeling Curve for 12 March, latest reading: 401.62 ppm
ESRL daily average: March 12 - 400.62

So now the curve is back in the sinusoide after a several weeks long lull. Still interesting what caused and ended that ‘dip’. Could it relate to the PDO-phase change? The Kelvin wave supporting a possible transition to El Nino?
If so, doesn’t it mark the same sort of instability and severity that characterizes FI the Jet Stream behaviour etcetera…
and indicate a possibly anomalous event in the near future?

[crandles]

Might be the start of one of those spikes that occur from time to time.

I would suggest that further 1ppm increase in a day makes it even more likely that this is one of those spurious spikes starting.

[crandles]

Perhaps settling down at just over 400?

Maybe a local source issue rather than an equipment problem?

ESRL now showing
March 13 - 400.93
March 12 - 400.62
March 11 - 399.43
Is that different from what it was previously?

[Csnavywx]

This is nothing more than the vagaries of the atmosphere at work. Eddies and pockets of air are cut off from the flow all the time, especially in the subtropics. For an example, just look at a high resolution 500mb vorticity map. Much in the same way, pockets of higher and lower CO2 air are cut off or meander, causing these local bumps, dips and stalls whenever they pass over the station. The gradient across these eddies can be a few ppmv worth of CO2, so it's not surprising that we see a sawtooth pattern in the graph.

[Csnavywx]

In this case, the spike is likely being caused by a breakdown of the mid-level subtropical ridge over the area, allowing for some higher CO2 air from the mid-latitudes (originally introduced over the Asian continent) to infiltrate.

[silkman]

It does look like it's settling down at a 400 plus level after a period of noisy data. NOAA is in agreement with Scripps.

CO2 Now is pulling it all together daily.

http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/global-co2-board.html

[silkman]

Consistent data from both laboratories reported today.

400ppm bar a tad.

http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/global-co2-board.html

[crandles]

ESRL now showing
March 13 - 400.93
March 12 - 400.62
March 11 - 399.43
Is that different from what it was previously?

hmm well now it shows
March 15 - 399.71
March 14 - 399.96
March 13 - 399.99
March 12 - 399.60
March 11 - 399.43

so no readings over 400. Looks more like they did decide there was an equipment problem and redid the measurements?

.

Still
2014   3   2  2014.1658    398.37  5           397.16    378.15    117.24
2014   3   9  2014.1849    399.49  7           396.65    378.61    118.17

from up 1.21 on a year ago to up 2.84 on a year ago.

We're in trouble if it keeps rising that rapidly 

[ghoti]

I must say my first reaction is: How do they get 5 significant digits to CO₂ measurements? Clearly the equipment is way way better than what we had in our lab (we specialized in measurements of CO₂ uptake) in the 1980s!

[pikaia]

I must say my first reaction is: How do they get 5 significant digits to CO₂ measurements? Clearly the equipment is way way better than what we had in our lab (we specialized in measurements of CO₂ uptake) in the 1980s!

I wondered that too, and also, what are the confidence limits?

[JimD]

As long as they are measuring it the same way as in the past so that the numbers are consistent that is all that matters in this case.  It is relative change and whether we can observe it which is the concern not whether there is ultimate significant figure accuracy.   Agreed?

[pikaia]

As long as they are measuring it the same way as in the past so that the numbers are consistent that is all that matters in this case.  It is relative change and whether we can observe it which is the concern not whether there is ultimate significant figure accuracy.   Agreed?

I agree that it doesn't matter much as far a as long-term changes are concerned, as any uncertainty is evened out. However, if you are interested in changes over a few days then it is more important. The March 12 value was revised downwards by about 1ppm, which makes me wonder what is going on. Anyway, it is normal practice to state the confidence limits, for obvious reasons.

[JimD]

pikaia

The below might be of interest to you.  It goes into significant detail on how the measurements and calibrations are done.  I think it will answer all your questions.

We have confidence that the CO2 measurements made at the Mauna Loa Observatory reflect truth about our global atmosphere. The main reasons for that confidence are:
1. The Observatory near the summit of Mauna Loa, at an altitude of 3400 m, is well situated to measure air masses that are representative of very large areas.
2. All of the measurements are rigorously and very frequently calibrated.
3. Ongoing comparisons of independent measurements at the same site allow an estimate of the accuracy, which is generally better than 0.2 ppm.

So actually accurate to 4 figures I guess.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html

[werther]

Bad news from Hawaii, indeed:

The Keeling Curve for 12 March, latest reading: 401.62 ppm
ESRL daily average: March 12 - 400.62

Referring to my post above, four days later the 'hits keep coming':
Keeling curve/Scripps:         401,34 ppm
ESRL/Mauna Loa weekly:    399.57 ppm (March 7)
Idem, daily:                         401.20 ppm (March 17)

Read also the continuing ENSO-thread. What's the relation (if relevant):
SOI:  -9.3 (latest Australian BOM report)

Be prepared.... stunning events might unfold!

[crandles]

Think March 13 has been shown as 401.62, 400.93, 399.99, and 400.21. Seems like quite a few adjustments. Perhaps better to wait for weekly averages?

(ESRL reports 399.57 for week commencing 9th March even if CO2 now says 399.43 (and Wether says 7th).)

[wili]

Yes, they do seem to adjust them quite a bit, sometimes more than once. But by my calculations, we now have the first 7-day period this year (11th through 17th) with (currently) official readings averaging above 400:

400.17 to be a bit more precise.

[Jim Hunt]

According to @Keeling_curve

Another first. The week ended Tuesday was the first in the Keeling Curve record to avg over 400. Specifically the average conc. was 400.67

The March 18th daily currently shows 401.19.

[silkman]

Matched by ESRL at 401.18ppm.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

It will probably stay above 400ppm now until May but will anyone notice in the big wide world?

[TerryM]

Jim
Is this the 1st daily ever over 401?


Terry

[Jim Hunt]

It will probably stay above 400ppm now until May but will anyone notice in the big wide world?

We'll keep on bringing it to their attention!

P.S. It seems the HuffPo have noticed - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/18/400-ppm-co2-levels-_n_4985580.html

[Jim Hunt]

Is this the 1st daily ever over 401?

Unfortunately not Terry. See e.g. http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/

[crandles]

Matched by ESRL at 401.18ppm.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

It will probably stay above 400ppm now until May but will anyone notice in the big wide world?

Possible though


does seem to show a reading around 398.2 in March 2013 which subsequently fell to around 396.2

Still
March 19 - 401.18
March 18 - 401.18
March 17 - 401.12
March 16 - 400.13
March 15 - 399.71

is managing 3 consecutive days over 401 which are also consistent with Keeling Curve data. So, week commencing 16th could be highest weekly on record only having to beat something like
2013   5  26  2013.3986    400.01

[silkman]

Ralph Keeling seems to support the view that we're probably >400 over the next couple of months. Time will tell.

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/comment-on-recent-readings-in-excess-of-400-ppm/

[Jim Hunt]

There's now been 6 days on the trot over 400.5 ppm. It's hard to see how the next ESRL weekly reading could fail to top 400:

[crandles]

So what will monthly CO2 for March 2014 per ESRL be?

(a) 399.76 or under, or

(b) new record monthly high but not over 400, or

(c) new record monthly high which is over 400?

[Jim Hunt]

Hot off the presses, the latest ESRL weekly number has come in at 400.76 ppm

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

As regards monthly numbers, I've eaten enough crow stew regarding the maximum extent, so no comment from me!

[Shared Humanity]

Hot off the presses, the latest ESRL weekly number has come in at 400.76 ppm

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

As regards monthly numbers, I've eaten enough crow stew regarding the maximum extent, so no comment from me!

When I look at that graph, I can't imagine where we will end up in May.

[silkman]

Latest Keeling Curve number is for March 22 after yet another period of noisy data - 398.88ppm

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

[wili]

Mauna Loa--March 22 - 399.98ppm

So barely over a degree below 400, not enough to of set 6 days mostly well above that number.

So the last week's official average is above 400 for the first time this year and only the second time in history (and for millions of years before history started, iirc): " Week beginning on March 16, 2014:     400.76 ppm "

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

[silkman]

ESRL has just released adjusted data for the week commencing March 16th - 400.62ppm - and more recent daily data is north of 401ppm. It represents a hefty 3.25ppm increase over the same week last year and may possibly be above the trend but any doubts about CO2 pushing on to new heights in response to our inability or simple lack of will to do anything about it seem misplaced.

Maybe the developing El Niño that's being so brilliantly tracked on this forum might be the wake up call we need to change perceptions.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

[silkman]

Keeling Curve hit 402.00 on April 6:

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

It looks odds on that the April average will be well above 400.

[RaenorShine]

Keeling Curve hit 402.00 on April 6:

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

It looks odds on that the April average will be well above 400.

And thats a new daily record as well. Another 6 weeks or so until the peak .....

[crandles]

Keeling Curve hit 402.00 on April 6:

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

It looks odds on that the April average will be well above 400.

Yes April average will be well above 400 along with May and June.

Daily average of 402 looks a bit odd though:

[werther]

Well consider it odd, but ESRL is confirming with a daily read of 202.11 ppm.
I'm getting increasingly worried if this is related to the potential strong El Nino rising. Could it drive measurements over 204 before the max?

[silkman]

Is Werther looking at his screen in a mirror? 

[werther]

I'm getting pretty bogged up, you're right. But I'm sure you get what I fear.
The 'normal' yearly amplitude is about 10 ppm. The max should fall anytime between mid-April and end of May. 403 could be a max reading. Given the deploying Nino situation the 'normal' could be crossed easily.

[silkman]

I certainly get it Werther.

What I really don't understand is why the importance of this fundamental signal seems to be undervalued by so many, including those who fund its measurement.

It's actually the one parameter that has a high level of certainty associated with it. No complex models, no sophisticated satellite measurements, just simple old fashioned hands on Physics and Chemistry.

And it drives the earth's energy balance in a way that's been understood for decades. In many ways it's certain that everything else will follow; it's just a matter of time.

As a Grandfather of five kids who'll be my age in the 2060's do I worry about the future? You bet I do!

[Jim Hunt]

Daily average of 402 looks a bit odd though:

ESRL now show some slightly less scary numbers:

[silkman]

400.55 still scares me, Jim!

[Pmt111500]

OT, since this is from the global dataset. monthly values minus monthly values year ago shows how well humanity is poised to reach Pliocene - Miocene levels of CO2.

[silkman]

PMT111, that's a very impactful presentation of data exemplifying the increase in the rate of CO2 increase, illustrating the total failure of politicians and bureaucrats, from Kyoto onwards, to get to grips with the issue.

Has anyone analysed the projected increase in atmospheric CO2 based on the direct impact of human activities and compared it with the observed data?

What concerns me is the possibility that we're already seeing an increasing contribution from the obvious feed backs which could push us over the edge.

[Pmt111500]

It looks like ENSO phase impacts the speed of increase somewhat, so this should be first taken in to account.

[werther]

Thanks. PMT, very illustrative. I thought of mentioning the remarkable Keeling Curve behaviour in my alarming forecast post on the blog last night. I left it out to be as comprehensive as I could (which always gives me a hard time...).
On Silkmans' question; I haven't studied that direct impact you mention. My impression is that an important part of the recent acceleration has to do with 1) ceasing buffering capacity in the main carbon-sinks 2) the ENSO cycle (see PMT-s graph).
The direct impact of human activity might make this worse. Several countries are shutting their nuclear facilities down (and take an extra bite of FF) and lots of others are more bothered with their economic troubles.

[silkman]

That sounds very sensible. Given the recent noisy upward movement in the Mauna Loa CO2 data and the early phase of the current forecast El Niño, could the former be a leading indicator for the latter?

[werther]

I've checked that correlation some weeks ago on the weekly data record at ESRL. During the six week lull in the annual CO2 rise. Couldn't see much, a slight resemblance late Feb both in 1982 and 1997.
I hold my breath that the sign this time is a harbinger for something new. See, the almost Nina-like upwelling in front of the Kelvin wave during Feb could have been able to function as an efficient, transient CO2 uptake. Which is 'finito' now...