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Author Topic: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"  (Read 383430 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #450 on: January 20, 2015, 03:22:24 PM »
Choose your news....

@AlecMacGillis: How the story of 2014 being warmest year on record played: huge A1 spread of [New York Times]; six paragraphs tucked on A6 of [Wall Street Journal]. http://t.co/UmXNil4KGD

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viddaloo

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #451 on: January 20, 2015, 04:24:11 PM »
If you believe the temperature map on the frontpage of NYT is ideal conditions for ice volume buildup I've got one thing to say to you (fetches BS detector button).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #452 on: January 21, 2015, 04:30:58 PM »
After you learn the difference between a huge climate article in the esteemed New York Times and a tiny article in the financial Wall Street Journal, maybe we can discuss.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #453 on: January 21, 2015, 04:34:19 PM »
Moving on. 

Value of an illustration.   :)
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viddaloo

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #454 on: January 21, 2015, 04:47:07 PM »
After you learn the difference between a huge climate article in the esteemed New York Times and a tiny article in the financial Wall Street Journal, maybe we can discuss.

I assume you know a whole lot more than me about this difference from reading that you assume I don't know anything about this difference. In any case, I still think someone within, say, the next hundred years, ought to explain the mismatch with the huge ice volume gain. Maybe heating the planet another 2C will put all the ice back on sea and inland? Could be worth a try!  ;D
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viddaloo

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #455 on: January 21, 2015, 04:48:49 PM »
Wait! I get it. That is what they're trying.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #456 on: January 25, 2015, 08:43:01 PM »
It pains me to think about the "Fool's Paradise" that modern society is living in with regards to the consequences of climate change.  The linked articles indicate how for the past 15 years (during the cooling phase of the PDO cycle), the oceans have been busy absorbing energy, and that now as we have already entered the warming phase of the PDO (see the third link below showing a PDO for December 2014 of +2.51) , we can expect the surface temperature of the ocean to be higher than the climate change trend-line would otherwise project for the next 15 to 30 years:

http://mashable.com/2015/01/23/ocean-warming-broke-chart/

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jan/22/oceans-warming-so-fast-they-keep-breaking-scientists-charts

Extract: "Some people tried to tell us global warming had “paused”, that it ended in 1998, or that the past 15 years or so had not seen a change in the energy of the Earth. This ocean warming data is the clearest nail in that coffin. There never was a pause to global warming, there never was a halt, and the folks that tried to tell you there was were, well, I’ll let you decide."

Link to the JISAO PDO

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

On top of the influence of the oceans, anthropogenic aerosols have reduced the atmosphere's equivalent CO₂ concentration from about 480ppm down to about 425ppm; thus we can expect the atmosphere's equivalent CO₂ concentration to increase more rapidly than the climate change trend line would otherwise project as China rapidly attacks its aerosol issues.
Lastly, I will mention that it is unbelievable to me how policy makers can be so little moved by the proven fact that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, WAIS, has already past its tipping point and the only remaining question is whether it will collapse with 100 or 200 years.

Even if some policy makers reject GCM projections for climate change, the phenomena cited above are measurable today and will have serious consequences on society no matter what else we do (or do not).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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jbg

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #457 on: January 25, 2015, 11:33:52 PM »
It pains me to think about the "Fool's Paradise" that modern society is living in with regards to the consequences of climate change.  The linked articles indicate how for the past 15 years (during the cooling phase of the PDO cycle), the oceans have been busy absorbing energy, and that now as we have already entered the warming phase of the PDO (see the third link below showing a PDO for December 2014 of +2.51) , we can expect the surface temperature of the ocean to be higher than the climate change trend-line would otherwise project for the next 15 to 30 years:
During the last PDO cold phase,1947-77 there was a nice uptick from about 1957 to 1961.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #458 on: January 26, 2015, 03:40:46 AM »
It pains me to think about the "Fool's Paradise" that modern society is living in with regards to the consequences of climate change.  The linked articles indicate how for the past 15 years (during the cooling phase of the PDO cycle), the oceans have been busy absorbing energy, and that now as we have already entered the warming phase of the PDO (see the third link below showing a PDO for December 2014 of +2.51) , we can expect the surface temperature of the ocean to be higher than the climate change trend-line would otherwise project for the next 15 to 30 years:
During the last PDO cold phase,1947-77 there was a nice uptick from about 1957 to 1961.

I pains me even more to think that the fate of future generations may likely be determined by logic such as this.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #459 on: January 27, 2015, 09:31:49 PM »
Peter Sinclair has interesting videos with Bill Maher and also with Eric Rignot about the pathology of the distrust o science w.r.t. climate change:

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/01/26/bill-maher-and-glaciologist-eric-rignot-on-the-pathology-of-distrust-for-science/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #460 on: January 29, 2015, 04:41:12 PM »
UK flooding pushes public acceptance of manmade climate change to five-year high.
Quote
"The number of people referring spontaneously to climate change as one of the top national issues was much higher than we would have expected."
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/01/uk-flooding-pushes-public-acceptance-of-manmade-climate-change-to-five-year-high/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #461 on: February 01, 2015, 02:16:28 PM »
Here's a great "visual" experiment that shows that, like CO2, only a few parts per million of a substance can have a dramatic effect.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=81FHVrXgzuA
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #462 on: February 01, 2015, 02:53:42 PM »
Examining Willis Eschebach's dispute with the AAAS survey that found most members believe climate change is a problem.
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/01/willis-eschenbach-wonders-about-science.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #463 on: February 02, 2015, 05:29:53 PM »
The link leads to an article about the first US Presidential warming about the risks of anthropogenic climate change in 1965, which was relatively accurate:

http://www.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2015/02/president-johnson-carbon-climate-warning

Unfortunately, many down-played (denied) the risks citing both: (a) the uncertainties of the projections vs the cost of doing something to control CO2 emissions; and (b) the potential use of geoengineering to counter global warming without the need to limit GHG emissions.

Unfortunately, the decision to take inadequate action on climate change in the 1960's (ie to stay on a BAU pathway) is probably the most expensive decision that could have been made at the time; which, clearly indicates that if we wait still longer to take adequate action on climate change the costs will just go up further.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #464 on: February 04, 2015, 03:02:08 PM »
Skeptical Science has a new Facebook post:
"Insightful analysis from Sou about a new social science paper on how scientists should respond to denial.  The comments taken from client climate deniers blogs are especially entertaining.

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/02/calling-scientists-frauds-and-fakers.html. "
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #465 on: February 10, 2015, 01:08:49 AM »
Two short videos with Glaciologist Eric Rignot.  (More @ ASLR's post #459, above.)
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/02/09/climate-elevator-pitch-glaciologist-eric-rignot/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #466 on: February 10, 2015, 02:03:29 AM »
The following reference makes the point that neuroscientists believe that in order to deal with chaotic situations (such as having a conversation at a cocktail party while drinking), the mind picks its battles and stomps out irrelevant information so that only what one deems valuable rising into ones attention.  This certainly seems to be the case when people deal with the complex/chaotic topic of climate change.  The mind's ability to stamp-out information that will tarnish our self-image/ego (see extract below for an example of the strength of this mental propensity) have dire implications for fighting climate change unless we can somehow change people's ego's to make them realize that GHG will take away many of the things that they want for their children (or themselves if they are now 30 years old or younger).

Stephen L. Macknik & Susana Martinez-Conde, (2015), "Pay Attention", Scientific American Mind 26, 21 - 23 (2015)
Published online: 18 December 2014 | doi:10.1038/scientificamericanmind0115-21

extract: In 2013 researchers at Lund University in Sweden "… asked people to share their voting intentions in a survey.  By using a secretly rigged survey tablet, they swapped their respondents' answers with people from the opposite political camp.  Surprisingly, when the researchers showed participants their "answers," 92 percent of people endorsed and accepted the altered viewpoints.  Many participants would then extensively confabulate on why they made their (swapped) choice, suggesting that much of the rationale we concoct for our everyday decisions may be rooted in self-deception."
« Last Edit: February 10, 2015, 06:48:27 PM by AbruptSLR »
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JimD

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #467 on: February 10, 2015, 05:25:58 PM »
ASLR

It is even worse than I thought.  Sigh...
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #468 on: February 11, 2015, 02:30:42 PM »
West Vancouver, Canada, has approved labels for gas pumps, warning about climate change.  Some great (positive!) quotes from supporters in the video.
http://globalnews.ca/news/1795333/watch-west-vancouver-unanimously-votes-to-support-warnings-on-gas-pumps/
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wili

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #469 on: February 11, 2015, 03:51:25 PM »
Apologies if this has already been posted:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=589383337864930&pnref=story

@ .37: "We've all proven that we cannot be trusted with the future tense. We've been repeatedly asked, 'Don't you want to leave a better earth for your grandchildren?' And we've all collectively responed, 'Eh, F 'em!"

Pretty much sums up the attitude of TPTB and perhaps most of the rest of us schlubs.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #470 on: February 11, 2015, 05:50:04 PM »
SkS's latest: https://www.skepticalscience.com/fiddling-with-global-warming-conspiracy-theories-while-rome-burns.html

Fiddling with global warming conspiracy theories while Rome burns

Includes video of Richard Muller of the BEST study.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #471 on: February 11, 2015, 07:02:35 PM »
The journal that published Richard Tol's deeply flawed paper saying climate change will be good for us, to a point -- a finding beloved by AGW skeptics -- now acknowledges that conclusion is invalid.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/bob-ward/global-warming_b_6631350.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #472 on: February 12, 2015, 06:57:32 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #473 on: February 12, 2015, 10:51:34 PM »
ASLR

It is even worse than I thought.  Sigh...

The linked article indicates that people with dyslexia have trouble with details but excel at grasping the bigger picture (see extract below).  As most people focus their attention on details (all decisions in the capitalistic system are based on the margin) by stomping out external information (and thus inflating their egos), they often have a hard time seeing the forest for all the trees.  As the Tyranny of the Commons problem associated with anthropogenic radiative forcing is caused by participants in the global economy who cannot see the bigger picture of the consequences of their GHG emissions; maybe we need more dyslexics in positions of decision making w.r.t. climate change ;).

http://eyetoeyenational.org/news/successful-dyslexics.html

Extract: "Psychologists who analyzed the mental make-up of business winners found learning difficulties are one of the most important precursors of financial success. About 40 percent of the 300 studied had been diagnosed with the condition - four times the rate in the general population. Experts believe one reason may be that dyslexics, who tend not to be good at details, learn to excel by grasping the bigger picture and producing original ideas."
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wili

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #474 on: February 13, 2015, 09:19:16 PM »
http://www.marketplace.org/topics/sustainability/water-high-price-cheap/brazil-facing-its-worst-drought-century

New York Times: Those Who Deny Climate Science Are Not ‘Skeptics’

Quote
Now the climate science deniers, who generate a lot of phony objections to real science, also like to generate phony outrage when anyone has the nerve to explain that they are not skeptics.

So they're not just deniers, they are often as not outright liars and fakers.

(And that's on a good day, when they're not being libelous homocidal terrorists!)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #475 on: February 17, 2015, 01:44:15 AM »
Sou: Confessions of deniers at Judith Curry's blog.  Lots of engineers....
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/02/confessions-of-deniers-at-judith-currys.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #476 on: February 18, 2015, 11:50:39 PM »
According to the linked article Bill Gates fails to act because he believes that in 15 years a magic bullet (i.e. an economical, safe breeder reactor) will save the world; while the truth is that delaying action is the very worst thing to do at this time:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/18/3623344/bill-gates-climate-change/
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Laurent

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #477 on: February 19, 2015, 09:36:51 AM »

Laurent

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #478 on: February 22, 2015, 04:04:10 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #479 on: February 23, 2015, 08:41:23 PM »
John Cook’s Skeptical Science team has put together a Massive Open Online Course on climate denial.
It starts in April, takes 1 to 2 hours a week, and you can sign up for free and get access to all course materials.
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/02/23/how-to-combat-climate-denial-the-online-course/
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Laurent

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #480 on: February 24, 2015, 12:06:16 PM »
If you want to answer to people saying the sun is culprit for the changes, that may help you...
No, the sun isn’t driving global warming
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/23/no-the-sun-isnt-driving-global-warming/

wili

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #481 on: February 24, 2015, 02:20:52 PM »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #482 on: February 27, 2015, 07:11:02 PM »
The linked article indicates that both: (a) showing greater scientific consensus; and (b) opening discussing the topic (including risks) of geoengineering; increases public acceptance of the need to work towards climate change solutions:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/26/can-this-gateway-belief-get-people-to-accept-climate-change/
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Laurent

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #483 on: February 27, 2015, 10:03:12 PM »
What happened to the lobbyists who tried to reshape the US view of climate change?
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/27/what-happened-to-lobbyists-who-tried-reshape-us-view-climate-change

Well, we have this type of guy in France...
http://www.desmogblog.com/vincent-courtillot
Last week saying on the French radio (france inter) that the connection CO2 temperature is not clear we are in a pause or that last year wasn't a record, etc...

Behind there is the medias who do play the game...

Lawmakers Seek Information on Funding for Climate Change Critics
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/26/science/lawmakers-seek-information-on-funding-for-climate-change-critics.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 10:09:08 PM by Laurent »

viddaloo

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #484 on: February 27, 2015, 10:52:49 PM »
Well, we have this type of guy in France...
http://www.desmogblog.com/vincent-courtillot
Last week saying on the French radio (france inter) that the connection CO2 temperature is not clear we are in a pause or that last year wasn't a record, etc...

Behind there is the medias who do play the game...

Very much so, Laurent! If we stop and reflect on this, in many other areas of great importance to human beings and our survival, it is simply not true that gainsayers and contrarians are invited to the TV studios and listened to endlessly, for years and years, and even spanning decades and in our case millennia (ie. starting in the nineties and carrying on into the new millennium). Only for climate deniers the microphones are always waiting. TV makeup artists are eagerly working on the faces of denial. All of this implies a deeper need for the 'debate' to be stalled and stagnant, for things not to proceed.

From reading other threads, notably in this case the underrated Arctic Café thread, I understand fossil fuels, even coal, is still receiving government subsidies even greater than green energy subsidies. Now, you could of course put all of this down to conservatism, long–term deals and similar benign explanations. But there is also something called national security and continuity of government. Shady deals and behind the scenes agreements, often with former state–owned companies (oil, energy, telecom etc).

The bottom line is that *not everything* is up for debate or even political decision–making. Some things are settled on a deeper level avoiding the cameras of the popular media.

I first got a glimpse of this 'deeper level' when working in Sweden and hearing about the parliament decision to close nuclear reactors, following a national referendum about doing so. The industry simply refused to take this order to shut down, and started suing the national government! So Swedes are not masters of their own house, it seems.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #485 on: February 28, 2015, 12:48:42 AM »
Conspiracy theory leads to proposed rejection of sustainability programs.
Quote
Two Texas lawmakers have proposed a pair of bills that would prevent the state from funding programs which attempt to implement the ideas of Agenda 21, a non-binding and voluntary United Nations plan for sustainable development signed by the United States and 178 other governments in 1992.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/26/3627396/texas-be-texas/
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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #486 on: March 01, 2015, 04:45:02 PM »
I would love to see Inhofe throw snowballs at Löfven (Swedish Prime Minister), instead of in the Senate. Then both might have some fun and stay occupied with something less important.


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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #487 on: March 01, 2015, 08:45:01 PM »
Or those two above, Inhofer/Löfven, might use Professor Emeritus Lennart Bengtsson as target practice?

He's participating in the Ringberg 2015 WCRP Grand Challenge Workshop in March as noted by ASLR (followed by another of my nonsense comments).
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1020.msg44311.html#msg44311

Here's a recent blogpost by him.
http://antropocene.se/2015/february/der-spiegel-och-naomi-klein-loser-klimatproblemet.html
A quick quote with giggle translate:
"Although the growing emission of greenhouse gases is a problem in the long term it is today is not an urgent problem.     Global warming has so far been minor and there is no scientific basis that the weather has become more extreme.  The storms is not worse than before and will rather become fewer in a warmer climate, which is a result of the polar regions generally heated more.  One can expect that the extremely hot weather becomes more common and extremely cold weather less common with this go very slowly as we can see from this year fimbul in the US that could just as easily have happened in Sweden.  Sea level rise also by about 3mm / year but has not increased the pace over the past 23 years, as we can see from radaraltimetrimätningar from the satellite.  There is therefore no reason to build a panic atmosphere as if something likely lead to hasty and ultimately erroneous and costly decisions."

Properly translated from Swedish it's actually worse, but I think you get the picture.
Fimbulwinter comes from nordic mythology -> winter that ends the world.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #488 on: March 01, 2015, 11:56:21 PM »
I would love to see Inhofe throw snowballs at Löfven (Swedish Prime Minister), instead of in the Senate. Then both might have some fun and stay occupied with something less important.


Did you see Senator Sheldon Whitehouse's reply?
I posted it here.  :)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #489 on: March 02, 2015, 04:03:03 AM »
Per Wikipedia (see extract):
Extract: "The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is a nonprofit organization of conservative state legislators and private sector representatives that drafts and shares model state-level legislation for distribution among state governments in the United States."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Legislative_Exchange_Council

Unfortunately, ALEC has been repeatedly publically pummeled for lying about climate change (see the following links and extract).  Even worse some state legislators are given pre-drafted bills that they submit to their state legislative bodies to deny climate change and promote BAU fossil fuel use:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elliott-negin/more-lies-from-alec-about_b_6149568.html

Extract: "Public interest groups have been pummeling ALEC for a range of transgressions, including its scientifically challenged position on global warming, but the charge came from Google, one of ALEC's own high-profile corporate members."

Also see:
http://www.alecexposed.org/wiki/ALEC_Exposed

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Sleepy

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #490 on: March 02, 2015, 07:44:30 AM »
Did you see Senator Sheldon Whitehouse's reply?
I posted it here.  :)

Sorry, I missed you post, can't keep up with this forum.  :-\
But I did see his reply, he kind of elegantly rubbed it in, politely. :)

Inhofe actually voted for that climate change exists in January, but reserved himself about the A in AGW...
http://www.c-span.org/video/standalone/?c4524774/whitehouse-inhofe2&popoutPlayer

It's really amazing when you consider that it's almost twenty years since James Hansen spoke to the Senate. In another twenty years I'll be dead, the positive thing is that all of those deniers will be the same. They can't deny death, except for Inhofe.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #491 on: March 02, 2015, 05:19:49 PM »
Article in the Guardian about the problems with pigeon-holing people for their climate change beliefs.
Quote
Whatever label you choose to apply, uncertainty about climate change, at root, is driven by people’s values and political beliefs, which become entangled with judgments about climate science. People work backwards from policies they don’t like the sound of, and downgrade their assessment of the validity of the science. Overcoming this impasse means ‘opening up’ the debate to dozens of competing perspectives, rather than ‘closing it down’ through enforced labels and linguistic categories.
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/feb/27/most-people-are-neither-alarmist-nor-in-denial-about-climate-change
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #492 on: March 03, 2015, 12:42:15 AM »
Pal-review and off-topic journals help bad science get published.

Fossil fuel industry caught taking a page out of the tobacco playbook.
Fossil fuel funded Willie Soon is just a pawn in the game of delaying climate action.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/mar/02/fossil-fuel-industry-caught-taking-a-page-out-of-the-tobacco-playbook
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JimD

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #493 on: March 04, 2015, 07:39:47 PM »
Pal-review and off-topic journals help bad science get published.

Fossil fuel industry caught taking a page out of the tobacco playbook.
Fossil fuel funded Willie Soon is just a pawn in the game of delaying climate action.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/mar/02/fossil-fuel-industry-caught-taking-a-page-out-of-the-tobacco-playbook

Yup and the Green BAU folks are doing the same thing as I have pointed out many times.

But below is another version of what I am saying.  It is long and you have indicated you don't like the length of what I write (it is actually less than 8,000 words so it is functionally short but it does take a half hour or so) and it largely says what I say in somewhat less harsh terms. 

It provides what I think is a clear explanation why most of the approaches you advocate just will not work.  A must read for any of the BAU folks.

As you read this I want you to keep in mind a few points which the author largely left out of this article.  All of them are strong negative feedbacks which inevitably lead to a more 'harsh' conclusion.  In other words this piece, while very good at demolishing the BAU positions, is far from fully realistic.  Those points are rapid population growth, diminishing global carrying capacity, and the detrimental effects of rapid climate change.  The situation is much worse than he states (And he does know this, but is trying to make his points gently and gradually.  I am past that.). 

Quote
Folks who pay attention to energy and climate issues are regularly treated to two competing depictions of society’s energy options.* On one hand, the fossil fuel industry claims that its products deliver unique economic benefits, and that giving up coal, oil, and natural gas in favor of renewable energy sources like solar and wind will entail sacrifice and suffering (this gives a flavor of their argument). Saving the climate may not be worth the trouble, they say, unless we can find affordable ways to capture and sequester carbon as we continue burning fossil fuels.

On the other hand, at least some renewable energy proponents tell us there is plenty of wind and sun, the fuel is free, and the only thing standing between us and a climate-protected world of plentiful, sustainable, “green” energy, jobs, and economic growth is the political clout of the coal, oil, and gas industries (here is a taste of that line of thought).

Which message is right? Will our energy future be fueled by fossils (with or without carbon capture technology), or powered by abundant, renewable wind and sunlight? Does the truth lie somewhere between these extremes—that is, does an “all of the above” energy future await us? Or is our energy destiny located in a Terra Incognita that neither fossil fuel promoters nor renewable energy advocates talk much about? As maddening as it may be, the latter conclusion may be the one best supported by the facts.

If that uncharted land had a motto, it might be, “How we use energy is as important as how we get it.”.......

Quote
The combined quantity and quality issues of our renewable energy future are sufficiently daunting that Google engineers who, in 2007, embarked on an ambitious, well-funded project to solve the world’s climate and energy problems, effectively gave up. It seems that money, brainpower, and a willingness to think outside the box weren’t enough. “We felt that with steady improvements to today’s renewable energy technologies, our society could stave off catastrophic climate change,” write Ross Koningstein and David Fork, key members of the RE<C project team. “We now know that to be a false hope.”......

We don't need to talk about the use of fossil fuels and the lies their advocates use.  However we need to keep the following in mind regarding renewables as these facts are crucial...

Quote
Crucially, a recent study by Weissbach et al. compared the full-lifecycle energy economics of various types of power plants and found that once the intermittency of solar and wind energy is buffered by storage technologies, these sources become far less efficient than coal, natural gas, or nuclear plants; indeed, once storage is added, solar and wind fall “below the economical threshold” of long-term viability, regardless of the falling dollar price of panels and turbines themselves. The problem lies in the fact that the amount of energy embodied in the full generation-storage system cannot be repaid, with a substantial energy profit, by that system over its lifetime. Recent operational studies of solar PV systems in Spain and Australia have come to similar conclusions.

Never forget that fossil fuels are concentrated solar energy which we did not have to pay for.  Modern renewables "WILL" have to be paid for.  There is no free lunch.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-01-21/our-renewable-future
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

werther

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #494 on: March 04, 2015, 09:18:25 PM »
I’ve been following Heinberg’s musings for several years. From time to time, what he writes makes me feel paralyzed, but most of the times inspired to do the best I can. In my eyes, he writes clear but elegant, a concerned and empathizing person shines through the lines. He does seem to have enough of his hands “in the soil” to know what’s going on in the biosphere, although his main concern is the likely effect of “peak-oil” and its effects on society.

As for what to expect on a “green-BAU” path, I think Heinberg is quite clear. If it is pursued without changing past and contemporary financial and economic structures, it is bound to fail.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #495 on: March 04, 2015, 09:48:57 PM »
Never forget that fossil fuels are concentrated solar energy which we did not have to pay for.  Modern renewables "WILL" have to be paid for.  There is no free lunch.
We did not pay for FF energy at the time.  We are paying dearly for that oversight now.

FF power plants are only good for 30-40 years.  Assuming replacement power of some sort is required when their time is up, surely you can't recommend adding more dirty energy instead of renewables?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wili

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #496 on: March 04, 2015, 10:38:41 PM »
"dirty energy instead of renewables?"

Wow. You really do seem to be completely stuck in this dichotomous thinking mode.

Did you completely miss what he said about de-growth?

World energy use is about 150,000 terawatt hours.

Of those, about 120,000 are from ff.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption

Reduce energy use to a fifth of current levels (higher in some places, less or not at all elsewhere), and you suddenly have a mostly non-GHG forming energy supply.

Would that involve suffering? Sure. Did we fight WWII successfully with no suffering? No. Why should we expect to take on this much more important and much more existentially threatening task with no suffering.

But a lot of suffering could be avoided with a bit of planning: forgive debts, shorten the work week, provide universal basic health coverage, banish usury, redistribute wealth and land...

So it could be planned.

But probably it won't be.

In any case, most would probably survive drastic reductions in net energy use--humans lived for millennia on a tiny % of the energy now consumed and with no ffs.

What few if any would survive is the hothouse world we are rapidly creating for ourselves and our progeny, with wetbulb temperatures across much of the populated world above survival levels for ourselves and the plants and animals we depend on.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2015, 10:57:27 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #497 on: March 04, 2015, 11:11:18 PM »
"dirty energy instead of renewables?"

Wow. You really do seem to be completely stuck in this dichotomous thinking mode.

Did you completely miss what he said about de-growth?
....
wili,
I have said many times the world's power needs must decrease.  I did not state (or, did not intend to imply) that the new power source must supply as much power as the plant it was replacing.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wili

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #498 on: March 04, 2015, 11:13:22 PM »
Thanks for the clarification.

So we're basically on the same page. The differences being just a matter of timing and priorities, perhaps?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #499 on: March 04, 2015, 11:16:50 PM »
Thanks for the clarification.

So we're basically on the same page. The differences being just a matter of timing and priorities, perhaps?
That sounds about right!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.