Critique of Most Common SLR Guidance Criteria w.r.t Abrupt SLR

[Lennart van der Linde]

Werther, good point. I think the same goes for all the economic growth scenarios they all use. What happens in the case of a collapse scenario, such as the scenarios that the Club of Rome has pointed at for over 40 years now?

I'm in contact with the Environmental Assessment Agency (EAA) now and will ask those questions as well. They still seem to consider about 6 meter of SLR by 2400 as their worst-case scenario. The government seems to interpret about 3 meter by 2300 as their worst-case, based on the new IPCC-report. I've asked the EAA if they agree and am awaiting their answer.

[sidd]

http://www.livescience.com/40274-shutdown-cancels-antarctic-research.html

they did it, the fools.

[Clare]

Sorry I posted this as a new topic:
NZ scientists are trying to carry some of the work on by the look.

as "US Government shut down affecting Antarctica too"!


It will be a real shame if the shut down halts the US programs this Antarctic season which should be getting under way there this month:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11138156
&
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11137394
Modify message

[wili]

Some interesting discussion going on recently at RC about SLR and what Hansen & Sato (among others) seem to be saying in recent work:

http://www.realclimate.org/?comments_popup=15875

(apologies if this has already been linked)

[AbruptSLR]

Wili,

Thanks for this link.  While I enjoyed the SLR discussion at the linked blog, I find it distressing at how cavalier experienced scientists are with regard to evaluating the risk of ASLR this century due to the possible partial collapse of the WAIS.

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

The following link leads to an August 2013 video by National Geographic about SLR.

The video makes it clear that so long as we following our current BAU emission scenario, the AIS is at risk of collapsing within the next few centuries, with all the associated consequences:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baGrtqyWSRM&list=PLDuRQPpcMx79CkGXeldmd-V_pexVuqETy

Best,
ASLR

[wili]

Thanks for weighing in over at RC, ASLR. They do seem rather allergic to discussions about sudden dire consequences that even they would have to admit are at least tail-end possibilities. I think the fear of being tarred as alarmist has got a lot of folks self-censoring on these types of topics, though I suspect there are other psycho-social dynamics going on, as well.

[AbruptSLR]

Wili,

I agree that what you call psycho-social dynamics is a very important factor in what both policy makers and scientists are prepared to consider with regard to ASLR.  Unfortunately, by the time that decision makers are likely to accept the reality of this risk, it will likely be too late to stop much of the potential ASLR, and if so then our only options will be either coastal defense measures or retreat.

Best,
AbruptSLR

[AbruptSLR]

The information presented in the following web-video indicates that the US Army Corps of Engineers is now promoting the use of a 5-ft (1.5m) worst case SLR scenario by 2100 (it is unclear if this is a 50% CL value or an actual design value):

http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2013/12/senior_corps_official_says_fed.html

[AbruptSLR]

The California Kingtide initiative helps people to understand what a normal high tide will be like in California 50-years (due to SLR) from now by experiencing Kingtides today (see the link):

http://california.kingtides.net/

Possibly public education like this will allow policymakers better acknowledge the risks of SLR.

[AbruptSLR]

The following leads to a Dec 2013 FEMA document (Incorporating Sea Level Rise (SLR) into Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) Benefit Cost-Analysis) that establishes guidance for SLR values for local authorities to use in order to qualify for FEMA grants (it is noted that FEMA is also working on guidance for SLR values for local/state authorities to use in order for their flood risk reduction measures to qualify for FEMA recognition when calculating local rates for Flood Insurance Rate Maps):

http://www.floods.org/ace-files/documentlibrary/New_News/HMA_Sea_Level_Rise_Memo_and_FAQs.pdf

This FEMA (Incorporating Sea Level Rise (SLR) into Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) Benefit Cost-Analysis) document cites the guidance at the following links as being acceptable:

NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services’ Mean Annual SLR
Trend Data http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml;

The attached image is from the NOAA link cited above and indicates that 3 to 4 ft/century of RSLR should be used for Southern Louisiana.

• USACE Climate Change Adaptation Sea Level Change Curves
http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm


• Globalchange.gov provides more information specific to New Jersey and New York
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/coastal-resilience-resources

Also, the US Department of State has also issued the first biannual "Climate Action Report", CAR; which can be downloaded from the following website:
http://www.globalchange.gov/whats-new/news