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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #650 on: February 17, 2017, 01:07:16 PM »
Powerful Friday storm in Southern California; Warm & wet atmospheric river to affect Oroville Dam watershed Monday
Quick overview of current meteorological context

California is currently experiencing one of its wettest winters on record. Precipitation has been especially remarkable across the Northern Sierra watersheds, where liquid equivalent (rain+melted snow) is presently above 200% of average. Widespread flooding has already occurred across Northern California in recent weeks, and supersaturated soils are now leading to slope failures (mudslides and landslides) across much of the state. In additional to the “typical” flooding of regional rivers and streams that one might expect with prolonged heavy precipitation, California’s vast water storage and conveyance infrastructure is starting to crack under the strain–in some cases, quite literally.
...

Potentially strong, warm & wet atmospheric river headed for Oroville Dam watershed

Unfortunately, the forecast for the Feather River watershed upstream of the Oroville Dam has become somewhat more ominous over the past 24 hours. Instead of a series of moderate, cold, and relatively manageable storms as had originally been depicted by the models, a rather strong atmospheric river is now expected to develop and slowly move across Northern California on Monday. The GFS and ECMWF agree that this storm will tap into subtropical moisture, bringing a warm and moist airmass into the region. Mountain peaks in the vicinity of Oroville Dam are not as tall as those further south along the Sierra Nevada mountain chain, so it’s easier for warm storms to produce exclusively rain (as opposed to snow) in that part of the state. The Monday storm may indeed be warm enough for most/all of the precipitation in that watershed to fall as heavy rain, which is not good news for current mitigation operations at Oroville Dam. Recent forecasts show a high likelihood of greater than 10 inches of precipitation over the next 5 days, with parts of the basin expected to approach 15 inches over the next 7 days. It is unclear at this point exactly what impacts this expected heavy rainfall will have on dam operations, but it’s clear this is not the forecast that DWR officials and emergency managers were hoping for....
http://weatherwest.com/archives/5582
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #651 on: February 17, 2017, 07:47:09 PM »
 Satellite animation at the link.

Greg Diamond:  Not often we see a rapidly deepening low of this magnitude off the coast of Cali. Could be strongest in Feb on record #StormWatch #LARain
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/832583232113799168
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TerryM

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #652 on: February 18, 2017, 12:01:39 AM »
WOW


Hope Bruce and his squealers can find high ground. The storm just behind this one might have the knock out punch.


Terry

Bruce Steele

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #653 on: February 18, 2017, 12:52:20 AM »
Terry, Everything is fine around here. Kinda muddy for chores , we have had 5 inches rain in the last 12 hours.
 I have been mesmerized by metabunk.org for a couple days. Will be watching lake levels for the next several days.

https://apps.axibase.com/chartlab/dee79515/11/#fullscreen

If levels begin to rise again things will get sketchy. Monday will be a big test.

I think our yearly rain total was only about 5 inches two years ago .  I am hoping these storms are something that can bust the drought. So I would be the last one to complain right now. Rain some more , I can always buy taller boots !
« Last Edit: February 18, 2017, 01:01:09 AM by Bruce Steele »

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #654 on: February 18, 2017, 12:58:39 AM »
See the GIFs at the links.

"YO THIS RAIN IS FOR REAL IN LOS ANGELES TODAY!! It's turning parking garages into water parks #raininla #LA"
https://twitter.com/christynroyce/status/832718297065885697

“Landslide caught on camera in San Bernardino National Forest. "Oh my gosh...the whole bottom is sliding!" ”
https://twitter.com/abc/status/832701178517483522
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TerryM

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #655 on: February 18, 2017, 01:33:41 AM »
Yea, Metabunk & it's sister are wonderful. Reminiscent of Neven's creations.


My house is probably 50 miles from Forest Falls where the landslide is shown, although mine is on flat ground well up from the river.


Glad that 5 inches was no problem, that's a bunch of water!


Stay Safe
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #656 on: February 18, 2017, 09:01:04 PM »
Historic storm pounds Southern California with damaging winds and record rain
Residents all across Southern California are waking up this morning to an unfamiliar scene. Downed power lines, flooded interstates and car-sized sinkholes are what’s left in the wake of what is being called the strongest storm to hit the region since 1995. Historic rainfall and powerful hurricane-force winds caused widespread damage, resulting in at least two storm-related deaths....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/18/historic-storm-pounds-southern-california-with-high-winds-and-record-rain/

There is a larger and more powerful storm behind the storm affecting California right now -- this next one will hit the central and northern parts of the state.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #657 on: February 19, 2017, 02:09:35 PM »
"Another >12 inches (>30cm) of rain by Tuesday for some parts of northern California.
Inbound storm is the real deal. Be safe, everyone."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/833281975788015618

"Due to exceptionally wet winter, Monday storm could bring flood impacts not seen in many years. Central Valley levees at risk.#CAwx #CAflood"
NWS Sacremento: PLEASE PREPARE NOW! Serious flood & wind impacts expected early next week. #cawx #CAstorm #CAflood
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/833082120016785408
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #658 on: February 19, 2017, 02:13:25 PM »
Several maps and charts at the link:

How full are Northern California reservoirs and rivers?
http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article133224899.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #659 on: February 19, 2017, 09:53:41 PM »
Next storm(s):

Strong atmospheric river likely to bring widespread, perhaps severe flooding to Northern California on Monday
...As the offshore low lifts northeastward, the moist plume associated with the warm front will make slow progress northward during the day on Monday before reversing direction and moving more rapidly southeastward as the cold front approaches. The I-80 corridor (including the Bay Area and Sacramento regions) will be near the classic “triple point” of the warm, cold, and occluded fronts–which is a recipe for major flooding, since the atmospheric river can effectively “pivot” over a relatively narrow region. It’s still hard to pinpoint exactly which region will be most severely impacted, but I expect some serious flooding later Monday in a relatively narrow region somewhere within about 100 miles of the I-80 corridor. Even outside of this band of potentially dangerous rainfall accumulation, widespread heavy precipitation will still occur and lead to considerable flooding, mudslides, and other issues.

While the warm and wet precipitation will slowly taper off on Tuesday, it now appears that an active pattern will continue thereafter (albeit a much colder one). Additional precipitation accumulations may add to already considerable flooding later in the week, although at least snow levels should be drastically lower by Wednesday, reducing overall runoff.
...
But given the magnitude of the incoming Monday storm and the precariousness of the present situation, it’s becoming increasingly likely that problems will arise this week. As others have pointed out, the present situation is very similar to those which have historically resulted in major levee failures in the Central Valley and Delta regions. Undoubtedly, this week’s weather will be a serious stress test for California’s aging water infrastructure. Indeed, the potential exists this week for severe flood-related impacts of a magnitude not seen in many years. This is a storm to take seriously!
http://weatherwest.com/archives/5595
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #660 on: February 19, 2017, 10:07:55 PM »
"Still some uncertainty with Monday's #CAStorm. But Hi-Res models depicting historically rare rain rates across a swath of #NorCal #cawx"
https://twitter.com/dangwx/status/833397640024965124
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #661 on: February 20, 2017, 01:49:24 AM »
Overflowing Glory Hole Spillway at Lake Berryessa In Napa County, California from a drone yesterday

Video here:  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NxOOnKL265I
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #662 on: February 20, 2017, 02:05:17 AM »
NWS Sacremento: Many mainstem rivers across #NorCal expected to be in flood or danger stage in the upcoming days. #CAStorm #CAFlood #cawx
https://twitter.com/nwssacramento/status/833422185050025984
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #663 on: February 20, 2017, 02:07:42 AM »
NWS asking public to be prepared to evacuate with less than 15 min notice in event of flood emergency in NorCal.

"Text from latest @NWSSacramento forecast discussion highlighting potential for widespread,perhaps dangerous flooding.#CAwx #CAflood #CAstorm"
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/833462984554852352
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #664 on: February 20, 2017, 03:40:22 AM »
I-5 & CA 20 in Williams, Colusa County CA today #caflood #castorm #CAwx
https://twitter.com/yubasupbradford/status/833165041935409153
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be cause

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #665 on: February 20, 2017, 03:58:20 AM »
it's beginning to look like 1861 again .. I hope responses are better than in New Orleans

and just as Europe begins importing salad crops from California .. oops ! weather ?
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #666 on: February 20, 2017, 06:22:42 AM »
Forget the salad. Drought-flood double whammy = soil erosion big time... Dry, rinse, repeat: agriculture gone.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #667 on: February 20, 2017, 10:02:30 PM »
This was written in 2011:

Robert Bea, professor of engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, warns: “In terms of damage, deaths and long-term cost, a rupture in the delta levees would be far more destructive than what happened in Hurricane Katrina. This is a ticking bomb.”

California’s Next Nightmare
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/03/magazine/sacramento-levees-pose-risk-to-california-and-the-country.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #668 on: February 21, 2017, 01:04:10 AM »
"Yes, that's a waterfall behind the house. Anderson dam spillway in full force now."
https://mobile.twitter.com/lenramirez/status/833791163190505472

Second image:
Don Pedro Controlled Spillway Gate has been opened. #DonPedroSpill
First time since 1997.
Back then, the water from the spillway caused flooding in Modesto.
Brief video at the link: https://twitter.com/turlockid/status/833818231894794244

Article:
Atmospheric River Brings Historic Flood Risk to California
California is now experiencing its worst storm yet — with the potential to reshape its history.
https://psmag.com/california-braces-for-historic-floods-2f38774515e8
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Tigertown

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #669 on: February 21, 2017, 11:13:09 AM »
Very intermittent tv coverage on all this compared to what it should be.

If I am counting right, this is the second time in one day they have plugged a breach on this same levee.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/latest-heavy-downpours-hit-soggy-california-45614103

Also, more here on the situation that sigmetnow mentioned about Don Pedro Resovoir.
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/california-flooding-impacts

Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #670 on: February 21, 2017, 02:06:14 PM »
Expect to see more emergencies like Oroville Dam in a hotter world
Scientists predicted decades ago that climate change would add stress to water management systems like Oroville Dam
  Dams in the US were built 50 years ago, on average.
Our infrastructure was designed for yesterday’s climate, not today’s or tomorrow’s. We know the climate is changing and we need to be prepared.

Gleick warned 30 years ago that this increased runoff would add stress to California’s water infrastructure, also noting that in a hotter world, more precipitation would fall as rain and less as snow.

California will get the worst of all possible worlds – more flooding in the winter, less available water in the summer.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/feb/20/expect-to-see-more-emergencies-like-oroville-dam-in-a-hotter-world
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #671 on: February 21, 2017, 04:08:29 PM »
When rivers near Sacramento reach flood stage, water is allowed to flow naturally into the Yolo Bypass.  Article has an animated map of how it spreads.

Yolo Bypass: the inland sea of Sacramento
Land or Sea? The recent rains early this year brought much needed relief from the five-year drought in California. Reservoirs are full, mountains are covered with snow, and flood control structures are being used, some for the first time since 2006. Interstate 80 causeway commuters frequently, though perhaps unknowingly, witness one of the most important floodplains in California – the Yolo Bypass is now filled with water as far as the eye can see.

The recent events at Oroville Dam help highlight the Yolo Bypass’ vital role in flood protection for the Sacramento area. Despite the risk of flooding from the potential failure of Oroville Dam’s emergency spillway last week, flood control managers and experts emphasized the limited risk to the Sacramento area. The Bypass was a big reason why communities near Sacramento didn’t experience the same risk as those closer to the dam. Understanding the Bypass helps explain why it functions so well in our regional flood control strategy. But it also emphasizes the scale of protection needed for a low-lying area like Sacramento. ...
https://californiawaterblog.com/2017/02/20/yolo-bypass-the-inland-sea-of-sacramento/
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 09:29:55 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #672 on: February 21, 2017, 09:31:19 PM »
This is what the 101 freeway looks like right now in Morgan Hill. Not an optical illusion. Flooding from Coyote Creek has closed both directions
https://twitter.com/samnbcbayarea/status/834125871959023616
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #673 on: February 21, 2017, 09:37:08 PM »
NWS Bay Area: Here is a map showing locations of rock/mud slides & debris flows.  To see current road closures http://511.org/ #cawx #CAflood
https://twitter.com/nwsbayarea/status/834116592409706496
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #674 on: February 21, 2017, 09:54:13 PM »
More Floods and Evacuations in California--Plus Wind Gusts Topping 190 MPH
Even if the rains of the last week haven’t lived up to model-based expectations, they have caused plenty of havoc (see Figures 1 through 3). Power was knocked out to more than 100,000 people in the Los Angeles area on Friday, with several fatalities reported. More than two dozen debris flows had been recorded in nine counties as a result of the Sunday/Monday storm, according to a comprehensive roundup of the last week’s storms from weather.com. One levee breach on Monday night in San Joaquin County was quickly repaired after some 500 people had been ordered to evacuate. Residents of the town of Wilton in southern Sacramento County were under a voluntary evacuation on Monday night, but the Cosumnes River ended up peaking at 12.06 feet, less than an inch above the 12-foot flood stage and more than 3 feet below predictions from earlier Monday.
...
A truly wild night in the high Sierra
Two high-elevation weather stations at California’s Squaw Valley resort experienced incredible winds on Monday night as the core of the jet stream associated with the atmospheric river came through, together with localized wind acceleration from a low-level jet encountering the Sierra crest. (Thanks to WU member BayFog for pointing out the multiscale interactions.] Between 10:45 pm and 11:00 pm PST, the Siberia (Sierra Crest)-Squaw station, or SIBSV--located at an elevation of 8700 feet near the top of Squaw Peak--recorded a peak wind gust of 193 mph [310 kph], with sustained winds reported at 123 mph. During the same interval, only about two miles to the southeast, the Summit (Ward Mt)-Alpine station, or SUMAM--perched atop Mt. Ward at 8643 feet--recorded a gust to 199 mph, with sustained winds of 148 mph. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/more-floods-and-evacuations-in-californiaplus-wind-gusts-topping-190

Another storm is forecast to arrive Sunday-Monday.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #675 on: February 23, 2017, 02:19:05 AM »
Hit by worst floods in a century, San Jose got little warning of impending disaster
Over the last two weeks, heavy rains pushed water levels at Santa Clara County’s largest reservoir into the danger zone, with officials warning it could overflow.

That happened over the weekend, sending massive amounts of water into the Coyote Creek, which runs through the heart of San Jose.

By Tuesday, the creek was overflowing at numerous locations, inundating neighborhoods, flooding hundreds of homes and forcing the frantic evacuations of more than 14,000 residents, who remained out of their homes Wednesday.

The worst flooding to hit Silicon Valley in a century left San Jose reeling and residents angry about why they were not given more warning that a disaster was imminent. Even city officials on Wednesday conceded they were caught off guard by the severity of the flooding and vowed a full investigation into what went wrong....
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-san-jose-floods-20170222-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #676 on: February 23, 2017, 08:30:27 PM »
From 2015:
Overpumping of Central Valley groundwater creating a crisis, experts say
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-groundwater-20150318-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #677 on: February 27, 2017, 01:12:29 AM »
"A winter of closures to scenic Highway 1 compounded by a catastrophic bridge failure is hammering businesses in the Big Sur area and could damage tourism on the North Coast as well.

Highway 1 closures, Big Sur bridge failure taking a toll on tourism
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/article135046339.html
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #678 on: February 27, 2017, 02:16:38 AM »
"A winter of closures to scenic Highway 1 compounded by a catastrophic bridge failure is hammering businesses in the Big Sur area and could damage tourism on the North Coast as well.

Highway 1 closures, Big Sur bridge failure taking a toll on tourism
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/article135046339.html

That's some of the most beautiful scenery in the world. What a shame.
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #679 on: February 27, 2017, 07:58:23 PM »
This is a good presentation about the paleoclimate evidence and observational record of abrupt climate change.  he correctly attributes these rapid and long-term changes to atmospheric circulation changes.  he also verifies Francis & Vavrus obs. of weaking westerlies due to a reduced NH temperature gradient.  What he does not consider is the increase in NH water vapor expansion due to the reduction in SE Asian aerosols.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NtU8Nydlk4

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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #680 on: February 28, 2017, 12:47:09 AM »
"Our first view of the damaged Lake Oroville spillway without the water flowing"
https://twitter.com/kcrafinan/status/836320349209808897
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #681 on: February 28, 2017, 01:24:05 AM »
"Our first view of the damaged Lake Oroville spillway without the water flowing"
https://twitter.com/kcrafinan/status/836320349209808897

What spillway?  :o

Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #682 on: February 28, 2017, 07:02:38 PM »
Another view: 

Butte County History tweeted:  Friend and awesome photographer Greg Reeves took both of these shots of the #OrovilleSpillway #OrovilleDam.
https://twitter.com/buttecohistory/status/836624050680020992
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #683 on: February 28, 2017, 07:19:33 PM »
"Our first view of the damaged Lake Oroville spillway without the water flowing"
https://twitter.com/kcrafinan/status/836320349209808897

What spillway?  :o

it's an interruptus LOL
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #684 on: March 01, 2017, 12:19:39 AM »
Atmospheric River total

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #685 on: March 01, 2017, 06:01:23 AM »
Mt Palomar had 9" of rain yesterday.  I probably had close to 5 eyeballing a bucket that was outside.  SD airport had just over 2.  It was a hell of a storm.
http://fox5sandiego.com/2017/02/28/san-diego-looks-to-dry-out-following-record-rainfall/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #686 on: March 01, 2017, 09:21:42 PM »
Wettest water year to date in California (1895-present, prelim data)
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/monitor/cal-mon/

https://twitter.com/climate_guy/status/836951777144496128
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #687 on: March 08, 2017, 03:28:22 PM »
'A Tragedy': Hundreds of Thousands of California Residents Exposed to Contaminated Water
Nearly 1 million people don't have access to safe, reliable drinking water according to new data from California's State Water Resources Control Board
The latest data from California’s Water Resources Control Board show 700,000 Californians are currently being exposed to contaminated water at home or at school.

Because the state data doesn’t account for the nearly 2 million Californians still relying on private wells or factor in contamination from Chromium-6, experts say the number of people with toxic water is likely even higher.

In addition to those with contaminated water, another 3,511 California households reported having wells that are still dry according to state data released in January, 2017.

The vast majority of those wells are located in California’s Central Valley, in places like Tulare County, Madera County, and Stanislaus County....
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/A-Tragedy-Hundreds-of-Thousands-of-California-Residents-Exposed-to-Contaminated-Water-415136393.html
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #688 on: March 08, 2017, 07:05:36 PM »
The unintended consequences...
Oroville dam: multiple riverbank failures on the Feather River after the flow was abruptly stopped

The San Francisco Chronicle has an excellent article about what happened next on the Feather River when the flow down the Oroville Spillway was abruptly stopped last week to remove debris from the channel:
When state water officials scaled back their mass dumping of water from the damaged Oroville Dam this week, they knew the riverbed below would dry up enough to allow the removal of vast piles of debris from the fractured main spillway.  But they apparently did not anticipate a side effect of their decision to stop feeding the gushing Feather River — a rapid drop in river level that, according to downstream landowners, caused miles of embankment to come crashing down.  With high water no longer propping up the shores, the still-wet soil crashed under its own weight, sometimes dragging in trees, rural roads and farmland, they said.

“The damage is catastrophic,” said Brad Foster, who has waterfront property in Marysville (Yuba County), about 25 miles south of Lake Oroville.

The farmer not only saw 25-foot bluffs collapse, but also lost irrigation lines to his almonds. “When the bank pulled in,” he said, “it pulled the pumps in with it. It busted the steel pipes.”
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #689 on: March 13, 2017, 12:58:08 AM »
From award winning filmmakers, Marina Zenovich and Alex Gibney, #WaterAndPower is the story of California's most precious resource: water

Premieres Tuesday, March 14, 9 PM. National Geographic Channel.

https://twitter.com/natgeochannel/status/839868410196459523
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #690 on: May 05, 2017, 03:24:28 AM »
California's mountains currently have a massive snow pack from the heavy storms this winter (which caused flooding at lower elevations).  Need to watch as the season progresses.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action

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jai mitchell

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #691 on: May 05, 2017, 05:44:42 PM »
My favorite chart, End-April volume, not even remarkable. A simple continuation of what looks like a linear trend, past a "plateau" that may have been random variability in hindsight.

This is good, however, it must also be suggested that the 2013 & 2014 'recovery' years were black swan events and are pushing the trend anomalously higher (straighter).  If these years effects did not occur and the volume gain during those years was removed then the trend would fall well below the long-term linear trend.

I believe for several reasons that these years events were a statistical outlier over 4 sig.

"Black Swan" seems a bit too extreme.  The paleontological evidence seems to indicate a bit of stuttering before the actual climate switch.  This is also consistent with how natural systems generally tend to undergo a change of state in General Systems Theory.  Most of the time the system tends to choke a few times before flipping to a new state.  If you think about it, that is what happens with things like computer networks which are in the process of crashing -- they stutter and then fail.

Jim

what you are saying is true to an extent, however we are not operating within a black box environment.  The 1976 and 2014 Gulf of Alaska blocking pattern has a distinct profile that is largely a result of varying upper troposphere aerosol loading.   I have been looking at this for a number of years now and the key indicator is that the Global Circulation Models (GCMs) used to model geoengineering (global dimming) show a strong and persistent blocking ridge in this region.

Therefore, while state-change activities are definitely happening, the drivers of specific systemic changes always have physical drivers.  It appears that the 2013/2014 cooler summers (and warmer winters in Alaska, drought in California and record snow levels on the east coast) are driven by regional shifts in high-temp process emissions of  aerosols (as happened in 1975 when Europe rapidly reduced their emissions but U.S. and Asia emissions were continued).

The 2013 event was similarly produced by reductions in U.S. emissions post 2007 crash but shifting this manufacturing to China who engaged in a command economy overproduction surge in 2013.

Without this knowledge this could appear to be a strengthening of natural variability under a shifting climate regime, but this is a black box analysis of a black swan event. 

This video has excellent analysis from people who were not aware of this aerosol driver.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on0QmcDFgrg
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Jim Williams

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #692 on: May 05, 2017, 06:38:37 PM »
My favorite chart, End-April volume, not even remarkable. A simple continuation of what looks like a linear trend, past a "plateau" that may have been random variability in hindsight.

This is good, however, it must also be suggested that the 2013 & 2014 'recovery' years were black swan events and are pushing the trend anomalously higher (straighter).  If these years effects did not occur and the volume gain during those years was removed then the trend would fall well below the long-term linear trend.

I believe for several reasons that these years events were a statistical outlier over 4 sig.

"Black Swan" seems a bit too extreme.  The paleontological evidence seems to indicate a bit of stuttering before the actual climate switch.  This is also consistent with how natural systems generally tend to undergo a change of state in General Systems Theory.  Most of the time the system tends to choke a few times before flipping to a new state.  If you think about it, that is what happens with things like computer networks which are in the process of crashing -- they stutter and then fail.

Jim

what you are saying is true to an extent, however we are not operating within a black box environment.  The 1976 and 2014 Gulf of Alaska blocking pattern has a distinct profile that is largely a result of varying upper troposphere aerosol loading.   I have been looking at this for a number of years now and the key indicator is that the Global Circulation Models (GCMs) used to model geoengineering (global dimming) show a strong and persistent blocking ridge in this region.

Therefore, while state-change activities are definitely happening, the drivers of specific systemic changes always have physical drivers.  It appears that the 2013/2014 cooler summers (and warmer winters in Alaska, drought in California and record snow levels on the east coast) are driven by regional shifts in high-temp process emissions of  aerosols (as happened in 1975 when Europe rapidly reduced their emissions but U.S. and Asia emissions were continued).

The 2013 event was similarly produced by reductions in U.S. emissions post 2007 crash but shifting this manufacturing to China who engaged in a command economy overproduction surge in 2013.

Without this knowledge this could appear to be a strengthening of natural variability under a shifting climate regime, but this is a black box analysis of a black swan event. 

This video has excellent analysis from people who were not aware of this aerosol driver.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on0QmcDFgrg

I've been working on trying to absorb your aerosols argument, and I am tending to bifurcate on the matter myself.  I climbed Mount St. Helens twice before it blew up.  I am not unaware of what Pinatubo did.  At the same time, your analysis can be misused to promote a geoengineering solution, and I see no evidence that we understand the system well enough to predict the results.

jai mitchell

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #693 on: May 05, 2017, 09:39:24 PM »
we already know that aerosols cool the earth that is the basic science of it and the basic science alone is sufficient to promote an argument for geoengineering. 

I am not sure what you believe my aerosol argument is.  In this case I am saying that there is very likely a large anthropogenic component that drove both the 2013/2014 and the 1975/1976 negative PNA periods that led to colder summers in the Arctic and hot/dry west coast weather.

I am also saying that, if this is the case, that our current schedule of reductions in fossil fuel emissions will not allow this long-term blocking to occur again (in the absence of actual geoengineering attempts - or tests)
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #694 on: May 05, 2017, 11:44:40 PM »
we already know that aerosols cool the earth that is the basic science of it and the basic science alone is sufficient to promote an argument for geoengineering. 

I am not sure what you believe my aerosol argument is....
You just stated it in the preceding paragraph, and as I believe we screwed up 200 years ago I am not inclined to agree with screwing it up once again.

I just don't believe we know what we are doing.  Therefore I am not inclined to agree with any sort of geoengineering "quick fix."


jai mitchell

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #695 on: May 06, 2017, 06:56:50 AM »
I am not advocating geoengineering though I sadly believe that it will be attempted in the next 15 years.
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Jim Williams

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #696 on: May 06, 2017, 01:46:39 PM »
I am not advocating geoengineering though I sadly believe that it will be attempted in the next 15 years.

I have to agree.

Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #697 on: May 18, 2017, 02:32:19 AM »
21 Cities Emerging From Drought
After more than five years of drought in the western United States, above-average precipitation during the fall and winter months has finally delivered relief in 2017. While careful evaluation of the region’s primary water sources — surface water, snowpack, and groundwater — is still required to fully assess the recovery, California Gov. Jerry Brown officially ended in April the state of emergency in all but a few counties in the state.
...
Based on the latest Drought Monitor data, around 5% of the United States is in some state of drought, the lowest level ever recorded by the Drought Monitor, which started collecting data in 2000. There are 21 metro areas that recovered remarkably well from drought. In May of last year, 80% or more of the land area in each of these areas were classified as being in severe or worse levels of drought. Today, however, these 19 California and two Nevada metro areas are close to or completely free of drought.

...see the cities emerging from drought.

...see the detailed findings.

...see the methodology.
http://247wallst.com/special-report/2017/05/17/21-cities-emerging-from-drought/
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Archimid

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #698 on: May 18, 2017, 02:39:20 AM »
I'm so glad for California. They are on the front line of climate change. California is leading by example and if the drought extended for much longer the economic and social impact of droughts could have stopped them from leading.
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