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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #250 on: January 16, 2015, 09:03:39 PM »
@Weather_West: Great visualization of California's total reservoir storage via http://t.co/R5tXJv3Raw #cawx #cadrought #cawater http://t.co/QBJNdRGOwg
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #251 on: January 17, 2015, 10:59:45 PM »
Fourth year of drought?  No rain has fallen since December in some CA locations.

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Experts-tell-Californians-to-prepare-for-fourth-6018730.php
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #252 on: January 20, 2015, 02:56:36 AM »
Northern California map, with lots of 0%'s.

@NWSSacramento: January shaping up to be a bad month rainfall-wise for #NorCal. Here's the percent of normal so far this month. #cawx http://t.co/Lhz46fnSA7
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ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #253 on: January 20, 2015, 09:09:45 PM »
Fourth year of drought?  No rain has fallen since December in some CA locations.

Snowpack is averaging 31% of normal in the Sierra. Not good.

Laurent

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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #255 on: January 22, 2015, 12:51:58 AM »
California's Big Trees are suffering.

I visited Sequoia National Park some years ago (late 90's?) because I thought the trees might not be around much longer, due to drought, insects, etc.  At the time, the rangers stressed how resilient the trees were, so not to worry, now that we had stopped human damage by logging, trampling the roots, taking pine cones as souvenirs, etc.  Climate change didn't come up.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/21/3613620/californias-big-trees-are-suffering-badly/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #256 on: January 24, 2015, 02:13:44 AM »
California Drought Worsening During Height of Rainy Season
Quote
The rainy season started out promisingly, with several December storms bringing precipitation amounts close to average for the month over much of the state. Troublingly, though, record-warm ocean temperatures off of the coast meant that the December storms were unusually warm. This resulted in snow falling only at very high elevations, keeping the critical Sierra snow pack much lower than usual. The jet stream pattern shifted during January 2015, bringing disastrously dry conditions to the state. January usually brings 4.19" of rain to San Francisco, but no rain at all has fallen in January 2015 in the city--or over much of Central California.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2901
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #257 on: January 25, 2015, 04:11:30 PM »
Quote
Research suggests that the drought is a function of a warm patch in the Pacific Ocean, which has prevented precipitation from reaching the state. Record heat in the state (it and Nevada and Arizona saw their hottest years on record in 2014) has made a bad problem worse.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/01/23/the-massive-scale-of-californias-drought-and-how-it-informs-the-climate-change-debate/
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ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #258 on: January 26, 2015, 06:32:00 PM »
It's looking like my neck of the woods (Northern Bay Area) will close out January with a whopping 0.12" of rain. Average for this day in January is 6.01". Sierra snow pack now at 27% of average for January 26. Nothing of note in the forecast. This summer may really suck.  :o

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #259 on: January 27, 2015, 03:51:17 PM »
It's looking like my neck of the woods (Northern Bay Area) will close out January with a whopping 0.12" of rain. Average for this day in January is 6.01". Sierra snow pack now at 27% of average for January 26. Nothing of note in the forecast. This summer may really suck.  :o
The Northeast was trying to figure out ways to send you all the excess snow they figured they would get today, but that storm never really happened. Sorry!
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #260 on: January 27, 2015, 05:13:54 PM »
Maybe the snow the NE USA didn't get is on its way to the US Pacific Northwest???? ;D
(via the Atlantic, Eurasia and the Pacific)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #261 on: January 29, 2015, 02:49:16 AM »
More expensive water is better than no water.  But watch where you put the extracted salt.

San Diego desalinization plant should start supplying drinking water this year.
http://m.ibtimes.com/california-water-shortage-1-billion-plant-will-make-seawater-drinkable-end-2015-1795834
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Bruce Steele

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #262 on: January 29, 2015, 03:33:28 AM »
Sig,  I don't see much good news but I am happy when I find some. There may be some side benefits to saline discharges of desalinization.

http://news-oceanacidification-icc.org/2015/01/22/solar-thermal-decomposition-of-desalination-reject-brine-for-carbon-dioxide-removal-and-neutralisation-of-ocean-acidity/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wordpress%2FlRgb+%28Ocean+acidification%29

There are multiple desalinization projects proposed for the Calif. coast. Many have spent years in planning. Tomorrow the cal.water quality board will hear a request to fire up the desalinization plant for Santa Barbara. It was decommissioned after the drought back in the eighties was called off by some spectacular El Nino events . I was hoping 2014 would deliver another El Nino and maybe 2015 will produce some rain if the 2015 year supports our reprieve. For now the drought has a death grip on water supplies. Local rivers here on the Calif. central coast haven't gotten even one big storm to recharge our reservoirs. There will be a lot of wells that will be shut down if 2015 doesn't deliver some rain.  Otherwise it has been a beautiful mild winter. Spring bloom started this week for Japanese plums, foxtails are going to seed and I see budswell in a lot of my fruit trees.

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #263 on: January 29, 2015, 03:39:18 PM »
Sig,  I don't see much good news but I am happy when I find some. There may be some side benefits to saline discharges of desalinization.
...
It would indeed be wonderful if that worked as expected. But I would worry that adding magnesium oxide to the ocean might affect the ecosystem just as much as, as has been suggested, adding iron.  :-(
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jbatteen

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #264 on: January 29, 2015, 04:39:31 PM »
I don't understand the problem with desalination plant discharge.  Put it back in the ocean where it came from.  Water evaporates off the surface of the ocean all the time to no ill effect.  I have a hard time believing any extra saline discharge from a desalination plant wouldn't mix out pretty quickly.  The ocean is huge.

ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #265 on: January 29, 2015, 07:37:10 PM »
time believing any extra saline discharge from a desalination plant wouldn't mix out pretty quickly.  The ocean is huge.

The old "dilution is the solution to pollution" meme never really seems to work out for us...

Example: The ocean is huge. And utterly polluted with plastic.
Example: The atmosphere is huge. And utterly changed by CO2 emissions.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2015, 07:44:27 PM by ritter »

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #266 on: January 30, 2015, 08:21:58 PM »
Horrible California Drought Is Now Even More Horrible
Quote
... In most of northern and central California—the hardest hit regions of the state’s drought—rainfall in 2015 has been less than 2 percent of normal.

Any hopes the state had of finally turning the corner on its oppressive, possibly climate change–fueled megadrought have withered like the Sacramento River. Progress made in refilling the state’s largest reservoirs thanks to a series of major December storms has stalled, and key rainfall indices are back to being below normal. Snowpack in the Sierras, which supplies more than 60 percent of the state’s water resources, is down to a dismal 25 percent of normal. New data released by the National Drought Mitigation Center on Thursday showed 40 percent of the state is now classified as “exceptional drought,” the most severe category.
...
For now, California is the country’s leading dairy-producing state. That might change if the drought continues at this pace. Iowa Public Radio reports that there’s been an increasing exodus of dairy farmers from California to the Midwest, where supplies of grass and grain are more stable. With the specter of climate change, these kinds of stories hint at what could be a broader decline in the country’s leading agricultural state in coming years.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/29/california_s_drought_is_now_even_more_horrible.html
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jbatteen

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #267 on: January 31, 2015, 04:30:37 AM »
The difference with desalination is that we're not putting anything in there that wasn't there to begin with, we're just taking water out.

icefest

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #268 on: January 31, 2015, 05:38:26 AM »
The difference with desalination is that we're not putting anything in there that wasn't there to begin with, we're just taking water out.
By removing part of the whole you are by definition changing the whole.

If you were to remove 20% of the water in your body, you'd not be adding anything new. Nonetheless you'd just as surely be dead.
Open other end.

pikaia

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #269 on: January 31, 2015, 11:50:03 AM »
Satellites spot fields made idle by drought.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=85199

jbatteen

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #270 on: January 31, 2015, 05:12:15 PM »
Any amount of water we remove from the oceans via desalination will make its way back eventually, through rivers and streams or through evaporation and precipitation.  There is no way we could remove 20% of the oceans mass through desalination.  Rather than talking about removing 20% of the water from a human body, a more apt analogy would be plucking a hair from the head to use as a piece of string, then eating the strand of hair once it's served its purpose.  Nothing is wasted, it all goes back where it came from.  We're not permanently removing the water with desalination, we're just temporarily borrowing it.

The ultimate source of all water on the continents is the ocean anyway.  We're adding gobs of water by melting ice and that will shift the salinity balance in the opposite direction, so removing some water with desalination plants won't shift the balance appreciably.  There's no way we could pull enough water out by desalination to counteract all the melting ice added to the ocean, especially considering any water we pull out will return to the ocean eventually anyway.

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #271 on: February 01, 2015, 03:33:42 PM »
@EricHolthaus: It’s official: First-ever rainless January in [San Francisco] history http://t.co/vpnHcLcgOE via @SFGate
See also: http://t.co/2x8EwU2ai1
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #272 on: February 01, 2015, 08:05:14 PM »
@EricHolthaus: It’s official: First-ever rainless January in [San Francisco] history http://t.co/vpnHcLcgOE via @SFGate
See also: http://t.co/2x8EwU2ai1

I fear we are beginning to see the development of a  semi-permanent feature in northern hemisphere winters, a ridiculously resilient ridge driving anomalously warm weather into Alaska, baking the Southwestern US and freezing the east coast. Combine this with a growing cold pole over Greenland and you get wild blasts of weather coming off the Atlantic, pounding western Europe.

Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #273 on: February 01, 2015, 08:30:32 PM »
California Likely Headed Into Fourth Year Of Drought As State Suffers One Of Driest Januarys On Record
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/01/california-drought_n_6589316.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #274 on: February 02, 2015, 02:36:10 PM »
Nice discussion of the meterology over the past year, and the "atmospheric river" poised to hit northern CA soon.
Quote
Big changes on the way: major precipitation event likely in NorCal this week

As seems to have become the theme over the past few years, an intense precipitation event now appears likely to immediately follow an extraordinary dry spell across Northern California. Confidence has been growing in recent days that another extremely moist plume of subtropical moisture will take aim at NorCal during the first week in February, bringing heavy to excessive precipitation to at least the far northern part of the state.
http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/2905
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jbatteen

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #275 on: February 02, 2015, 05:49:38 PM »
Clicking that link led me to a site, softwareupdaterlp.com, that tried to install a virus by claiming it was updating out of date software in my browser.  I know it's a scam because I'm running Linux and it tried to send me a Windows .exe file.  The site owner probably doesn't know about it, it's probably sneaking in through an ad, but beware.

bigB

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #276 on: February 02, 2015, 10:04:53 PM »
Adding to sigmetnow's post:

The attached images (courtesy Levi Cowan/tropicaltidbits.com) show the GFS forecast of total accumulated precipitation for Feb 2nd-9th (first attachment), and the GFS forecast of total snowfall for Feb 2nd-9th (second attachment). Per the GFS model (which has been a bit more bullish with this event than other models), Northern CA is to see a moderate-strong Atmospheric River (AR) event later this week (starting late Thursday), potentially dumping copious amounts of much need rain and snow. If the GFS forecast develops as advertised, Northern CA could see several inches of rain (2-4 inches widespread with local amounts up 10 inches), and the Sierra snowpack could get a nice little face lift (higher elevations potentially seeing up to 2-3 feet of snow). Of course, this would only be a small drop/flake in a large bucket, but we'll take whatever drop/flake we can get. Unfortunately, it appears that a ridge of high pressure will keep the southern half of the state from getting in on the action. However, even a slight shift to the southeast or weakening of the ridge (compared to what models are currently showing) would likely result in at least some precipitation making it into the northern parts of southern CA. Something to keep an eye!   

ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #277 on: February 02, 2015, 11:35:29 PM »
I'll make sure to leave some tools or such outside Thursday and schedule some site visits with clients on Friday, just to make sure it does rain.  ;)

Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #278 on: February 04, 2015, 10:13:18 AM »
California Has Been Letting Oil Companies Dump In Protected Water Sources, And Conservationists Are Livid
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/03/california-oil-groundwater-wells_n_6606830.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

Quote
Some claim those injection wells have already done damage. Mike Hopkins, managing partner of Palla Farms near Bakesfield, sued four oil companies in September after he found that they had been injecting wastewater near his orchard, a practice he claims contaminated the groundwater he used with salt and boron and forced him to rip out 3,500 dying cherry trees.

This story has been updated to include comments from the California Department of Conservation.

Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #279 on: February 04, 2015, 10:20:53 AM »
California: Water Use Down, but Emergency Persists
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/04/us/california-water-use-down-but-emergency-persists.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Quote
December’s rains enabled Californians to finally meet Gov. Jerry Brown’s call for a 20 percent reduction in monthly water consumption, but more restrictions loom as the state adapts to a drought. A survey released Tuesday that showed an unusually rainy month helped residents cut water use by 22 percent statewide from December 2013 levels. But the Sierra Nevada snowpack, which supplies a third of California’s water, is 75 percent below its historical average, and for the first time in recorded history, there was no measurable rainfall in downtown San Francisco in January, when winter rains usually come. The governor called on Californians to use 20 percent less water last year when he declared a drought emergency. The closest they previously came to reaching that goal was in August, when water use dropped 11.6 percent. The state has authorized cities to fine people $500 a day for violating restrictions on lawn watering and washing cars.


State let oil companies taint drinkable water in Central Valley
http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/State-let-oil-companies-taint-drinkable-water-in-6054242.php
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 11:33:58 AM by Laurent »

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #280 on: February 10, 2015, 03:22:20 AM »
Not very much.  Snow was limited to very high elevations, due to the warmth.

@EricHolthaus: Here’s how much this weekend’s Atmospheric River helped California’s snowpack: #blip
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #281 on: February 12, 2015, 03:29:11 AM »
@EricHolthaus: Though snowpack looks abysmal, serious progress in reservoirs: MT @NWSCNRFC: NorCal reservoirs have risen since Feb 1 http://t.co/OcGJJ6Bu1n
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wehappyfew

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #282 on: February 12, 2015, 02:29:38 PM »
How much water are the reservoirs able to hold compared to the snow pack over the whole Sierra Nevadas?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #283 on: February 12, 2015, 08:29:59 PM »
Well, I think the californians need this water. At least if one looks at the brutal forecast from ECMWF 12z run today (12/2) which hints that "3R" will get superstrong by the end of next week topping at 1040 hPa... This run is probably rather extreme as none of the earlier runs have modeled the "3R" to be that strong...

In any case, the stubborn "3R" ("Ridiculous Resilient Ridge") almost deserve its own topic at this forum :)

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #284 on: February 14, 2015, 12:26:33 AM »

Quote
California has promised to stop letting oil companies inject chemical-laden wastewater into clean water sources underground, saying in a plan released Monday that the practice must stop by October 15.
The plan, which still must be approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, also says that oil companies must stop injecting waste into lower-quality, but still drinkable aquifers by Feb. 15, 2017. Because oil companies have been injecting their wastewater into drinkable water sources for years, the state Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources also pledged to review all the drinking water wells at risk of contamination.
The proposed changes come in response to a report from the San Francisco Chronicle last week which showed that California regulators gave oil companies permits for at least 171 wastewater injection wells into clean aquifers, and 253 wastewater wells into aquifers that were salty but potentially usable with treatment. The revelation drew considerable outrage because of California’s epic, ongoing four-year drought, which has forced restrictions on water usage and availability across the state.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/12/3622305/california-oil-waste-water-schmater/
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JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #285 on: February 14, 2015, 03:57:05 PM »
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2015/02/13/Study-predicts-future-megadroughts-for-western-US/7851423837104/

Study predicts future megadroughts for western U.S.

The chance of a megadrought hitting the western United States rises to 80 percent if emissions fail to slow down in the coming decades.

Quote
WASHINGTON, Feb. 13 (UPI) -- Researchers at NASA say the ongoing drought in California, one of the worst in decades, is rather puny compared to what awaits in the second half of this century.
A new study by climatologists with the space agency claims so-called megadroughts -- the driest and longest droughts in more than 1,000 years -- could afflict much of the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains in just a few decades.

The increased risk in these regions of more expansive, longer-lasting and drier droughts is fueled by the increasing levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, researchers say.

While previous studies have offered similar suggestions, no one climate model is exactly the same. The latest efforts by NASA researchers amassed data from 17 climate models. The researchers also ran the numbers on a variety of scenarios, including one in which greenhouse gas emissions taper off by mid-century and another in which emissions continue to rise at an accelerated pace.

"What I think really stands out in the paper is the consistency between different metrics of soil moisture and the findings across all the different climate models," said Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution who participated in the study. "It is rare to see all signs pointing so unwaveringly toward the same result, in this case a highly elevated risk of future megadroughts in the United States."

Under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions taper off by 2050 or so, the chance of a megadrought -- one lasting more than three decades -- affecting the western United States comes out to roughly 60 percent. That chance rises to 80 percent if emissions fail to slow down in the coming decades...........

Here in AZ the news media is already putting forth their local "experts" (people like farmers) who are scoffing at this report and saying that drought resistant GMO crops and water conservation will take care of the problem.  Nothing to see here. Move on!  Hey! Let's build a few more houses!  You want a swimming pool?  No problem!  Sigh...
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #286 on: February 14, 2015, 04:01:08 PM »
Forgot the actual study link.  Interesting reading.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

Quote
Abstract
In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for benchmarking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #287 on: February 14, 2015, 04:32:22 PM »
It is my very unscientific opinion that a persistent drought will set up over the western U.S. in my  lifetime. (I am 59 years old and healthy.) This change to North American climate will finally result in the creation of the "Great American Desert", a term coined by European settlers when they first stared at the vast extent of grasslands stretching endlessly to the Rockies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_American_Desert

The "Great Plains Breadbasket" will be no more.

http://plainshumanities.unl.edu/encyclopedia/doc/egp.ii.006

The Mississippi River watershed drains all of the central U.S. Most people are not aware that the Ohio River at the confluence with the Mississippi carries significantly more volume of water. This is true even though the mighty Missouri has joined the Mississippi north of the Ohio.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_River

It would be more accurate to characterize this river system as the Ohio River and the Mississippi  is merely a large tributary feeding it as it makes its way to the Gulf.

As the Great Plains dry out, the disparity in volumes can only increase.

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #288 on: February 14, 2015, 04:38:09 PM »
Quote
The Mississippi River watershed drains all of the central U.S. Most people are not aware that the Ohio River at the confluence with the Mississippi carries significantly more volume of water. This is true even though the mighty Missouri has joined the Mississippi north of the Ohio.

Very interesting.  Did not know that. 
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Shared Humanity

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #289 on: February 15, 2015, 04:39:46 PM »
When you look at this map, it becomes fairly clear which is the tributary and which is the main branch of the river.

Shared Humanity

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #290 on: February 15, 2015, 04:51:41 PM »
Due to its low volume of water, the upper Mississippi is only open to river barge traffic due to a large complex of locks and dams. Even with these locks in place, the upper Mississippi will be closed  to barge traffic in dry summers as the Army Corps dredges areas where shallow draft barges get stuck. This makes it extremely expensive to ship grain from the northern plains states to New Orleans for export as the grain needs to be moved by rail. This problem can only get worse.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2015, 06:00:49 PM by Shared Humanity »

wili

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #291 on: February 16, 2015, 05:21:48 AM »
Thanks for that, SH.

Since we're on to general western US drought, I though I'd share this here:
http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/02/15/drought-wins-usda-declares-10-western-counties-primary-natural-disaster-areas-159180

 Drought Wins: USDA Declares 10 Western Counties as 'Primary Natural Disaster Areas'


Quote

10 counties in Arizona and New Mexico have been declared primary natural disaster areas by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), with about two dozen more contiguous counties also eligible for assistance.

On February 4 the USDA designated Apache, Cochise, Gila, Graham and Pinal counties in Arizona as primary natural disaster areas because of drought-related damages and losses. On the same day the counties of Colfax, McKinley, Quay, San Juan and Union in New Mexico received the same designation, for the same reason.

“Our hearts go out to those … farmers and ranchers affected by recent natural disasters,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a statement about the counties in each state. “President Obama and I are committed to ensuring that agriculture remains a bright spot in our nation’s economy by sustaining the successes of America’s farmers, ranchers, and rural communities through these difficult times. We’re also telling Arizona producers that USDA stands with you and your communities when severe weather and natural disasters threaten to disrupt your livelihood.”

Farmers and ranchers in contiguous counties—Coconino, Greenlee, Maricopa, Navajo, Pima, Santa Cruz and Yavapai in Arizona, and 11 more in New Mexico—also qualify for natural disaster assistance, the USDA said.

Read more at http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/02/15/drought-wins-usda-declares-10-western-counties-primary-natural-disaster-areas-159180
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #292 on: February 16, 2015, 02:32:37 PM »
California is reducing its water consumption -- but projected population growth signals increasing water needs.
Quote
A 2009 state law requires urban water agencies to reduce per-capita water consumption 20 percent by 2020, compared with use at the start of the century. Most agencies are on track to reach that goal, and have made even more progress thanks to emergency cuts over the past year triggered by the ongoing drought.

However, by 2030, the data show, these savings will be more than erased by anticipated population growth. According to projections by the water agencies themselves, their total water deliveries will increase 16 percent by 2030 compared to their estimates for 2015.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article10311635.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #293 on: February 16, 2015, 09:27:42 PM »
The initial forecast of federal water deliveries for summer is expected this week.
Quote
The next train wreck in California’s drought is headed for the San Joaquin Valley this week when federal leaders forecast how much river water farmers can expect to irrigate nearly 3 million acres this summer.

Most folks in farm country are expecting the same number as last year — zero for both east and west sides of the Valley. Consecutive years of no river water would be another unprecedented body punch from a drought dating back to the winter of 2011-12.

http://www.fresnobee.com/2015/02/14/4379565_an-encore-of-valley-drought-crisis.html
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Csnavywx

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #294 on: February 17, 2015, 04:10:33 AM »
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2015/02/13/Study-predicts-future-megadroughts-for-western-US/7851423837104/

Study predicts future megadroughts for western U.S.

The chance of a megadrought hitting the western United States rises to 80 percent if emissions fail to slow down in the coming decades.

Quote
WASHINGTON, Feb. 13 (UPI) -- Researchers at NASA say the ongoing drought in California, one of the worst in decades, is rather puny compared to what awaits in the second half of this century.
A new study by climatologists with the space agency claims so-called megadroughts -- the driest and longest droughts in more than 1,000 years -- could afflict much of the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains in just a few decades.

The increased risk in these regions of more expansive, longer-lasting and drier droughts is fueled by the increasing levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, researchers say.

While previous studies have offered similar suggestions, no one climate model is exactly the same. The latest efforts by NASA researchers amassed data from 17 climate models. The researchers also ran the numbers on a variety of scenarios, including one in which greenhouse gas emissions taper off by mid-century and another in which emissions continue to rise at an accelerated pace.

"What I think really stands out in the paper is the consistency between different metrics of soil moisture and the findings across all the different climate models," said Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution who participated in the study. "It is rare to see all signs pointing so unwaveringly toward the same result, in this case a highly elevated risk of future megadroughts in the United States."

Under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions taper off by 2050 or so, the chance of a megadrought -- one lasting more than three decades -- affecting the western United States comes out to roughly 60 percent. That chance rises to 80 percent if emissions fail to slow down in the coming decades...........

Here in AZ the news media is already putting forth their local "experts" (people like farmers) who are scoffing at this report and saying that drought resistant GMO crops and water conservation will take care of the problem.  Nothing to see here. Move on!  Hey! Let's build a few more houses!  You want a swimming pool?  No problem!  Sigh...

Yeah, this report needs its own thread here. It really highlights the extreme risk of re-running devastating paleo-droughts in any AGW scenario. I don't think these folks really understand how severe those droughts were or fully understand how much more severe they're likely to be under strong greenhouse warming.

They make these last few dry years look fairly moist by comparison.

jai mitchell

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #295 on: February 17, 2015, 06:31:00 AM »
The EPA published this projection in 2009


Link here:  http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/southwest.html

The gross underestimation of regional extreme shifts in precipitation mirrors the extreme underestimation of arctic sea ice loss and (I believe) the secondary and long-term effects of aerosols on decadal oscillations in the pacific and atlantic.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #296 on: February 17, 2015, 07:09:27 PM »
@PeterGleick: Look at the current western drought (measured by PDSI) versus the "Dust Bowl."

[More on the Palmer Drought Severity Index here:  http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/palmer-drought-severity-index ]
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #297 on: February 20, 2015, 03:09:01 AM »
Oy.  No help in sight.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #298 on: February 25, 2015, 01:08:44 AM »
Latest update on the drought by the Pacific Institute, with lots of charts and links, is here:
http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/

Included is a note that, "The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California will consider water rationing beginning July 1st, if drought conditions do not improve."
http://www.acwa.com/news/water-news/mwd-outlines-drought-scenarios-could-result-mandatory-rationing-summer
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Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #299 on: February 27, 2015, 01:23:43 PM »