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JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #400 on: April 13, 2015, 06:00:35 PM »
Laurent's 3rd link is very interesting.  Those who can are stealing water and claiming the right to take it.  Now other farmers are starting to fight them over their rights.  This will result in a breakdown in the political lobby of the agricultural interests if it goes on long enough - and it likely will.

This is a good thing in that basing water rights from who settled the land 150 years ago throughout the western US is clearly crazy in today's world. 

Do we value the social good over the individual good or vice versa?

Whisky's for drinking and waters for fighting.  As they say.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #401 on: April 13, 2015, 06:27:14 PM »
Article discusses recent desalinization projects, particularly in California; and briefly reviews related environmental issues, and possible energy solutions.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/12/science/drinking-seawater-looks-ever-more-palatable-to-californians.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #402 on: April 14, 2015, 04:03:37 PM »
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ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #403 on: April 14, 2015, 05:54:53 PM »
Interesting. There's a big difference between mandatory percent reductions and rationing. With rationing, the water just isn't there.

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #404 on: April 14, 2015, 10:48:47 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #405 on: April 16, 2015, 04:18:28 PM »
Recycling waste water.

California Takes Serious Look at 'Toilet to Tap' Tech
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/california-drought/california-takes-serious-look-toilet-tap-tech-n342206
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Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #406 on: April 16, 2015, 05:54:15 PM »
For me that doesn't look like a good idea, because behind there is a huge release of CO2 (Mining, making the pumps, the pipes...) for doing something that would require nearly no CO2 emission and even store CO2.
That is called a dry toilet. If you separate the urine it is even better, because as mentioned recently on the forum it can be used for fertilising plants. you don't need a big surface...around 2 m2/person/year for the poo and 100 m2 for the urine (could be less). After one year your poo is called ground.

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #407 on: April 16, 2015, 07:38:58 PM »
Tweet from Elon Musk:
Quote
Have asked SolarCity if we can do something philanthropic with the CA aqueducts to help the water crisis. Investigating…

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/587421152819208193
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #408 on: April 16, 2015, 09:26:49 PM »
Here's an article examining some of the potential -- and obstacles -- of solar on the canals, as of 2012.

Could California's Canals Create Clean Energy?
http://www.kcet.org/news/redefine/rewire/solar/photovoltaic-pv/could-californias-canals-create-clean-energy.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #409 on: April 17, 2015, 02:46:04 AM »
For me that doesn't look like a good idea, because behind there is a huge release of CO2 (Mining, making the pumps, the pipes...) for doing something that would require nearly no CO2 emission and even store CO2.
That is called a dry toilet. If you separate the urine it is even better, because as mentioned recently on the forum it can be used for fertilising plants. you don't need a big surface...around 2 m2/person/year for the poo and 100 m2 for the urine (could be less). After one year your poo is called ground.

I'm going to need a lot  more houseplants or I could just hang my ass out the third floor apartment window.  :D

Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #410 on: April 17, 2015, 09:54:55 AM »
Ah Shared Humanity, why don't you say it earlier, I have a solution for everything (nearly)  ;)

there is some collective systems :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urine-diverting_dry_toilet

What does looks like a dry toilet.


If I had to build a new house, instead of bringing my poo every 5 days from point A to point B (50 meters), It is ok for me alone but with 2 or more it becomes very annoying to do that every day. I would build a double toilet system in the house, one is use every 6 months, it is enough time for the the few worms that you would have droped to make manageable ground. (1,5 m3/person/year is ok). Righ now I don't have any ventilation and it is ok for me (of course you should'nt be very sensible, you'll discover that it is a cultural thing) but you can design the flow of air to go out through your toilets.

This situation with big towns is not sustainable, the ecological foot print of the entire town should never exceed the limits of the administrative limits of the town.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2015, 10:00:31 AM by Laurent »

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #411 on: April 18, 2015, 08:08:04 PM »
Another look at California almond water use, by Eric Holthaus.
Quote
For now, California’s unique Mediterranean climate is almost ideal for almonds to flourish. Yes, almonds use a lot of water, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Almonds are much more efficient water-users, per calorie, than dairy or beef, for example. (As a Wisconsin resident, I feel duty-bound to remind everyone at this point that dairy farming can be done almost anywhere—and indeed, dairies in search of more reliable water are leaving California because of the current drought.) Replacing a glass of cow’s milk with almond milk is a net gain for the environment. But almond trees, which must be watered even when they’re not producing, have been gradually displacing fields of row crops that can be fallowed when the weather turns dry. That means by planting almonds, farmers are locking in future water use for decades to come—a troubling trend.
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/almonds_in_california_they_use_up_a_lot_of_water_but_they_deserve_a_place.1.html
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Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #412 on: April 21, 2015, 01:58:14 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #413 on: April 23, 2015, 07:04:17 PM »
Plenty of 'blame' to go around.

From Almond Milk to the Putting Green: California Drought Shaming, Diagrammed
http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2015/04/california-drought-shaming-diagrammed
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skanky

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #414 on: April 24, 2015, 11:14:56 AM »
Here's a good source on water news, inc/esp California:

http://www.inkstain.net/fleck/


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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #415 on: April 25, 2015, 07:12:52 PM »

silkman

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #416 on: April 26, 2015, 10:31:02 AM »
The Aquafornia News Archive is also an excellent source of "water news you need to know" in California:

http://www.watereducation.org/aquafornia

This story caught my eye today:

http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-california-assembly-acts-to-prohibit-fines-for-brown-lawns-in-droughts-20150423-story.html

Brown lawns in Beverly Hills? Whatever next?






Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #417 on: April 26, 2015, 02:38:49 PM »
Brown lawn... It is a bit stupid you'd better have resistant plants instead all year round so they can protect the soil.
Like this one (and many others) :
http://austinnativelandscap.fatcow.com/Pictures/Queen_Victoria_Agave_Xeriscape_Drought_Tolerant_Plant.jpg
http://th09.deviantart.net/fs71/i/2010/159/f/8/Ghost_Plant_by_SpookyKidDesigns.jpg

Using plastic floor to mimic green lawns is not a good idea since it does worsen the problem, sending CO2 in the atmosphere.

Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #418 on: April 29, 2015, 08:41:58 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #419 on: May 01, 2015, 09:23:23 PM »
@EricHolthaus: California snowpack down to just 2% of normal as of May 1, per latest measurements. Horrific. http://t.co/ZStc3YBqW1 http://t.co/JNdLrP2Q3s
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silkman

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Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #421 on: May 06, 2015, 12:55:04 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #422 on: May 06, 2015, 07:10:50 PM »
California’s Drought Could Upend America’s Entire Food System
Quote
Up to this point, feats of engineering and underground aquifers have made the drought somewhat bearable for California’s farmers. But if dry conditions become the new normal, how much longer can — and should — California’s fields feed the country? And if they can no longer do so, what should the rest of the country do?

“It’s Not Just A California Drought Problem, It’s A Problem With Our Whole Food System”
...
But that conversion is easier said than done, according to Chase. Farming corn requires a completely different infrastructure than farming produce, and he doesn’t see farmers jumping to replace their crops and machinery with California still capable of producing fruits and vegetables. Equipment for corn or soy farming can cost upwards of $100,000, a financial commitment that encourages farmers to grow crops that are easy to plant and harvest with the machinery.

“It’s not a land issue and it’s not a soil quality issue,” Chase said. “A lot of it is an infrastructure issue or a labor issue, particularly with those products that are so extremely labor intensive.”
...
“Human societies for the last 10,000 years have arisen on that same assumption — climatic stability, the continuation of certain trends indefinitely,” Stoll says. “No one could have known, or only few did, that fossil fuels had the capacity of changing those conditions.”

As Walker sees it, California agribusiness, for a long time, has dealt with problems through engineering. But now — after a century of diverting rivers — there’s simply less surface water to work with.

“It turns out that you can’t overcome all the problems with engineering,” Walker says. “You don’t even need climate change to know that this system was a fantasy.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/05/3646965/california-drought-and-agriculture-explainer/
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jai mitchell

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #423 on: May 07, 2015, 04:15:33 PM »
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-04/leaking-las-vegas-forced-rationing-looms-lake-mead-faces-federal-water-emergency

Leaking Las Vegas: Forced Rationing Looms As Lake Mead Faces Federal "Water Emergency"



Quote
If the water level is below 1,075 feet elevation – 4 feet below today’s level – by January 1, 2016, it will trigger a federal water emergency. And water rationing. Las Vegas Review Journal reported that forecasters expect the level to drop to 1073 feet by June, before Lake Powell would begin to release more water. Assuming “average or better snow accumulations in the mountains that feed the Colorado River – something that’s happened only three times in the past 15 years,” the water level on January 1 is expected to be barely above the federal shortage level.



However, snow water values for the Upper Colorado River basin show about 40% of what it should be at this time.  So, no there won't be normal inflows to Lake Powell this year.

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JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #424 on: May 07, 2015, 05:55:51 PM »
Another long term graphical perspective.

http://www.arachnoid.com/NaturalResources/

And Imperial Valley water issues - Not the Central Valley  - different part of CA and very different water supply sources.

http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2015/05/your-winter-vegetables-are-grown-desert-watered-dwindling-river

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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #425 on: May 08, 2015, 01:27:01 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #427 on: May 08, 2015, 08:04:49 PM »
So, it's a dehumidifier, by any other name?  With filters.

Linked from the "water truck" article in the previous comment:
Quote
The Dewpointe Atmospheric Water Generator, also known as the Dong Yang Air Water Machine AD-6, is a machine that filters the air, then removes water from the air, filters this water as well, and then provides hot and cold drinking water to the consumer. The Dewpointe AD-6 is able to do this by employing several different filters. Instead of the original OEM filtering system, our compatible option to the Dewpointe system filters offer made in the USA filters that still produce great tasting, clean water.
http://www.freshwatersystems.com/s-581-dewpointe.aspx
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #428 on: May 09, 2015, 09:00:07 PM »
California Farmers Are Watering Their Crops With Oil Wastewater, And No One Knows What’s In It
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/05/3654388/california-drought-oil-wastewater-agriculture/
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ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #429 on: May 11, 2015, 06:50:04 PM »
California Farmers Are Watering Their Crops With Oil Wastewater, And No One Knows What’s In It
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/05/3654388/california-drought-oil-wastewater-agriculture/

Seems like a great idea.  >:(

Laurent

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #430 on: May 12, 2015, 10:13:37 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #431 on: May 13, 2015, 09:18:46 PM »
Nice infographic on where California's water goes.  (But some rather half-baked thoughts about solutions.)
Quote
In fact, though I am not at all sure here and I’ll want a real economist to double-check this, it seems to me if we wanted to buy out all alfalfa growers by paying them their usual yearly income to just sit around and not grow any alfalfa, that would cost $860 million per year and free up 5.3 million acre-feet, ie pretty much our entire shortfall of 6 million acre-feet, thus solving the drought.
http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/05/11/california-water-you-doing/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #432 on: May 19, 2015, 04:50:34 AM »
Washington State Is In A Drought ‘Unlike Any We’ve Ever Experienced’
Quote
Unlike California’s current drought — brought on by a combination of heat and lack of precipitation — both Washington and Oregon’s droughts have been called “wet droughts,” characterized by normal precipitation but above-average temperatures that cause winter snow to fall as rain instead.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/18/3659911/washington-drought-emergency-declared/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #433 on: May 22, 2015, 11:13:12 PM »
The average American consumes more than 300 gallons of California water each week by eating food that was produced there.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/21/us/your-contribution-to-the-california-drought.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #434 on: May 22, 2015, 11:21:43 PM »
California regulators on Friday accepted a historic offer by farmers to make a 25 percent voluntary water cut to avoid deeper mandatory losses during the drought.
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/california-oks-offer-voluntary-water-cuts-farmers-n363486
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #435 on: June 03, 2015, 02:19:20 PM »
California Water Use Fell 13.5 Percent in April Amid Drought
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/california-drought/california-water-use-fell-13-5-percent-april-amid-drought-n368646

The video focuses on the "desert oasis" of Palm Springs.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #436 on: June 07, 2015, 03:07:42 PM »
Op-Ed by Dianne Feinstein: How DC can help fight the drought in California
Quote
The federal government can and must play a significant role in proposals for new and expanded reservoirs to store water north and south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta. Most of the environmental studies necessary to evaluate these projects have been languishing for a decade or more, and they must be completed as quickly as possible.

Expanding these storage facilities will benefit not only urban areas, rural communities and farms, but also fish species that depend on the cold-water supplies held in reservoirs. In addition to expediting the federal environmental studies, there's also a role for federal dollars to leverage state investments.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-feinstein-federal-water-legislation-for-california-20150607-story.html
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A-Team

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #437 on: June 08, 2015, 05:22:44 PM »
The NY Times story on the 05 June 15 business page opened a whole new chapter in the book of California groundwater managment stupidity (oxymoron alert). Upstream newcomers can drill like crazy near rivers and reservoirs to lower them before the water can go into irrigation canal intakes going to senior water right holders. Even better, pump so hard that ground subsidence will lower the canal so much that water no longer will flow down it.

This is a great example of laissez-faire capitalism desperately needing a government nanny to step in and regulate the bejezus out of the private sector before it destroys itself along with the state’s groundwater resource. California passed some voluntary regulations (oxymoron alert) last year but the rules don’t kick in for 25 years. An estimated ~20 years of groundwater are left.

This is straight out of Garrett Hardin’s 1968 classic ‘Tragedy of the Commons’, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.full

The dueling water users depicted here are a struggling almond grower from Punjab ($383,987 in EWG cotton subsidies, $14 million annual sales, $8 million 2nd home in Pebble Beach) and a family alfalfa farm ($11,522,057 in USDA subsidies, $3.7 million annual profit on $25 sales) with the ultimate senior water rights.

Here you can look up individual farm gov’t subsidies in the Environmental Working Group data base, http://farm.ewg.org/. It is not clear where the public benefit derives when 80% of almonds and alfalfa are exported to Asia. Trickle-down?

It is not clear how more urban sacrifice -- sponge baths, landscaping ripped out — will change what these farmers know full well is a race to the bottom: reckless and irreversible depletion of groundwater. It reminds me more of massive food exports to England during the height of the Irish Potato Famine — only with water.

The Times had a rosy quote about subsidence reversibility from USGS hydrologist and INSAR expert Michelle Sneed. Not believing Sneed was a denier, I chased down her scientific publications, soon finding she had said the exact opposite: "As groundwater levels drop, clay deposits move closer together and space for groundwater is lost. You can never get the deposits to go back." http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5142

It all depends on the basin; CA has some 575 of them with varying degrees of characterization. The situation here is a  water table perched over Corcoran clay. Shallow wells (remember them?) access that groundwater. These can be replenished by irrigation with surface water, the more wasteful the better, if you don’t mind a whole lot of selenium, sea salt and farm chemicals.

Deeper wells access a second pool of deeper groundwater, not an underground lake but rather water filling pores in silt and clay. [This is the exact opposite of Glen Canyon dam where the Navajo sandstone pores are being massively and irreversibly hydrated.] Once removed, the weight of ground overhead causes pore compaction.

The resulting subsidence — an astonishing half meter per year in places -- is irreversible: the groundwater reservoir cannot be renewed by pumping or infiltration, it has been strip-mined by one generation of unsustainable agriculture.

The Times ran a most excellent map of regional subsidence. USGS provides extensive resources explaining how the map was made from satellite insar; we use interferometry quite a bit on the Greenland forum for ice sheet velocity and thinning. See methodology section of http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5251/index.html

The article offers a great quote from “Mr.” Famiglietti (a Princeton Ph.D in engineering and full professor, not worthy of the same respect as the Times’ Dr. Kissinger):

“California passed stronger regulations last year but the rules won’t have any real effect for 25 years or more, says Jay Famiglietti, senior water scientist at the NASA JPL. “You drill a well on your property, you draw it out, even if it means you draw from under your neighbor’s property,” he says. “You’re drawing water from every direction.” In a normal year, Mr. Famiglietti says, 33 percent of California’s water comes from underground, but this year it is expected to approach 75 percent. Since 2011, he says, the state has lost eight trillion gallons from its overall water reserves, two-thirds of that from its underground aquifers.

We can’t keep doing this,” Mr. Famiglietti says. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/business/energy-environment/california-farmers-dig-deeper-for-water-sipping-their-neighbors-dry.html

oren

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #438 on: June 08, 2015, 09:07:00 PM »
Excellent article. Everyone's racing to the bottom and will not stop until all underground water is sucked dry.

And so it goes. Unmitigated growth, overshoot, collapse, with no one able to prevent it, and leaving a much worse situation for posterity.

icefest

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #439 on: June 09, 2015, 08:40:54 AM »
Do you have any other information on the saturated Navajo sandstone ateam? I've had a look around but couldn't find anything about permanent damage due to saturation.
Open other end.

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #440 on: June 09, 2015, 08:46:55 PM »
Thousands lose power in California in temperatures above 100°F, due to overheated equipment -- and a squirrel.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/09/squirrel-power-outage-san-francisco_n_7541184.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #441 on: June 13, 2015, 01:55:33 AM »
Drought-ravaged California orders record water cuts on farmers
- Order affects Sacramento, San Joaquin and delta watersheds
- Thousands of senior water rights holders will be affected
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jun/12/california-orders-largest-water-cuts-farmers
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #442 on: June 13, 2015, 02:32:01 AM »
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Skip Showers For Beef, a new grassroots project born of the California drought, acknowledges that giving up beef — a product that uses huge amounts of water — is hard. So the campaign’s creators have come up with a creative way for Californians to keep eating meat while reducing their water use: Just stop showering.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/12/3668126/skip-showers-for-beef/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #443 on: June 15, 2015, 12:16:31 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

A-Team

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #444 on: June 15, 2015, 06:23:25 AM »
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Do you have  information on the saturated Navajo sandstone a-team? I've  couldn't find anything about permanent damage due to saturation.

There are two papers, free full text, by consulting hydrologist Dr. Thomas Myers, on this topic. I am not aware of anything controversial about his conclusions, which have been out for two years now. 380,000 acre-feet is a lot of water to lose every year, comparable if not more than evaporative losses (recently quantitated at Lake Mead by eddy covariance).

The physics of it is very simple: Navajo sandstone has a lot of pore space, Glen Canyon Dam is 471 feet deep as of today, that's been enough pressure water to force water about a mile into the rock since the reservoir was filled,. If the lake were drained it would take thousands of years for it to seep out and not all of it would. It is non-recoverable groundwater at this point, a different mechanism from that in clay subsidence but same bottom line.

Lake Mead has relatively non-porous bedrock; the idea is to consolidate the reservoirs to lessen both evaporation and seepage.

http://water.nv.gov/hearings/past/springetal/browseabledocs/exhibits%5CCTGR%20Exhibits/CTGR_EXH_006%20Statement%20of%20Qualifications%20of%20Tom%20Myers,%20Ph.D..PDF

http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/Hydrology/TomMyers.pdf

http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5229/

"Lake Powell, which is upstream of the Grand Canyon, is losing more water to seepage than Nevada’s annual Colorado River allotment.

About 380,000 acre-feet every year seeps into the porous Navajo sandstone, according to hydrologist Thomas Myers who studied the water loss and just published a paper about it in the Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

"You lose almost no water to seepage at Lake Mead," Myers said. "It’s a lot less fractured. It just doesn’t allow the water to flow miles and miles away from the reservoir like it does at Lake Powell."

The Glen Canyon Institute commissioned the study. It’s agenda is to restore Glen Canyon and a free flowing river. The institute would like to see more water stored in Lake Mead, which has a less porous foundation."

Loss Rates from Lake Powell and Their Impact on Management of the Colorado River†
Tom Myers Hydrologic Consultant
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Volume 49, Issue 5, Article first published online: 21 JUN 2013

jai mitchell

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #445 on: June 15, 2015, 07:31:25 PM »
Thanks for that A-Team interesting stuff.  Maybe it is not a good idea for Utah to try to hoard the water up in Lake Powell and should send it down to lake mead for storage?  Probably wouldn't help the loss rates by very much, plus I believe that mead has a higher evaporation rate.

Lake Mead is going below stage 1 rationing regime for the first time since filling in the next week or so.




compare the historical trend:

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icefest

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #446 on: June 16, 2015, 12:29:39 AM »
Thanks ateam.

Quote
  Groundwater flowing toward the river likely no longer reaches it due to backwater caused by the rising reservoir because of backwater into the sediments above the reservoir level (Blanchard, 1986; Thomas,
1986), as seen in rising groundwater levels near the reservoir (Figures 8 and 9). Thomas’ (1986) groundwater model simulations found that a long-term equilibrium would result in about 400 years with
half of the total bank storage having occurred by 1983. He projected that 36 and 57 percent of the second half of the equilibrium storage would be reached within 50 and 100 years, respectively, although his estimates do not account for fluctuation in the reservoir level. This suggests that another 14.8 Gm3 will  accumulate in the banks over the next 400 years. Because the groundwater levels near the reservoir have  already risen to the level of equilibrium storage, most of the future bank storage will be from groundwater  inflow.


It does suggest most of the harm is already done, but that some water may be recoverable by draining the reservoir.
Open other end.

A-Team

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #447 on: June 16, 2015, 07:58:00 PM »
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Lake Mead is going below stage 1 rationing regime for the first time

Under the byzantine rules, the key document is the August 2015 24-month-report, which will appear on Aug 15th. They go by its prediction for Lake Mead for 1 Jan 16. If that predicted level is less than 1075, only then comes the declaration of a Lower Colorado River Basin shortage in 2016, with Arizona CAP ag users to take a partial cut (no effect on California etc).

I don't believe they take things such as el nino or jet stream persistent ridges into account for these predictions. El Nino at predominantly makes the southern areas wetter (eg Tucson) and not so much the Rockies (historically).

The June 15 report, http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo/2015/JUN15.pdf, says:

"Observed unregulated inflow into Lake Powell for the month of  May was  1.61  maf or 69 percent of the 30 year average from 1981 to 2010.  he forecast for June unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is 2.15 maf or 81 percent of the 30 - year average. The  forecasted 201 5 April through July unregulated inflow is 5.00 maf or 70 percent of average.

In this study, the calendar year 2015 diversion for Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) is  projected to be 0.961 maf. The calendar year 2015 diversion for the Central Arizona Project (CAP) is projected to be  1.48 maf. Consumptive use for Nevada above Hoover (SNWP Use) is projected to be 0.226 maf for calendar year 2015."

A shortage declaration doesn't happen simply when Mead hits 1,075, but rather when it starts a new year at 1,075. The latest forecast calls for Mead to be at 1,081.6 on Jan. 1, 2016, and 1,077.6 on Jan. 1, 2017.

Lake Powell will end the year 15 feet higher and 1.3 million acre feet fuller than forecast a month ago because of bizarre May snowfall in the upper watershed.

They are very exercised to keep Lake Mead high as the cost of its electricity -- a giant subsidy to pumpers -- soars as the lake level drops. The US does not sell its electricity at fair market value but simply at a price sufficient to pay BuRec (fixed) overhead at Hoover Dam. It's doubtful that much non-gravity irrigated ag (notably alfala) would occur without this and dozens of other govt subsidies.

UC Santa Barbara did an excellent analysis of power generation costs at Hoover Dam at various lake levels. Their full report is here. http://thebathtubring.weebly.com/

John Fleck continues his dedicated coverage of the overall issue at http://www.inkstain.net/fleck/2015/06/as-lake-mead-drops-who-is-really-vulnerable/ and associated pages.

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #448 on: June 16, 2015, 08:08:46 PM »
Here is the govt shoveling taxpayer money to perpetuate the root cause of metropolitan water shortages:

"Meanwhile, USDA's Livestock Forage Program, which provides compensation to farmers and ranchers who experience grazing losses because of drought or fire, is aiming to provide at least $1.2 billion in assistance to livestock producers this fiscal year.

For farmers and ranchers worried about keeping their businesses in the black, the Department of Agriculture is expanding its Risk Management Agency program that allows farmers to exclude their exceptionally bad production years from their calculations of crop insurance coverage. The White House said this is aimed at ensuring that a bad year or two caused by drought does not dramatically reduce crop insurance coverage."

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/disaster-assistance-program/livestock-forage/index
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Assets/USDA-FSA-Public/usdafiles/Disaster-Assist/LFP-Maps/native_pasture_2015.pdf

Meanwhile Gov Brown announced the real solution: 'eat a veggie burger'.
 

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #449 on: June 16, 2015, 10:19:35 PM »
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2015/06/15/lake-mead-water-level-improves/28786057/

Quote
A shortage would be declared in August if managers expect Lake Mead's levels to hit 1,075 feet at the beginning of next year.

so, yes it is based on the new year, I did not realize that.  Well an El Nino may help (A LOT)

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