Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2014 El Nino?  (Read 773252 times)

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #350 on: March 24, 2014, 05:55:53 PM »
El Niño deniers? The India Meteorological Department director-general Laxman Singh Rathmore claims the West is spreading "rumors" of El Niño to manipulate India's markets.

Quote
"It is in the US and Australian interests that agri commodities and stock market in India come down. They are spreading rumours. People will start hoarding and might start creating artificial scarcity of commodities. Don't heed their advice," said Laxman Singh Rathore, director-general, IMD.

On the other hand...

Quote
India's private weather forecaster Skymet sees a 60 per cent chance of a drought this year, and does not share Rathore's perspective on a conspiracy by scientists of the developed world. Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet Weather Services, said he doesn't feel there is any plot.

"There is no conspiracy. The correlation between El Nino southern oscillation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall is well known since the 1980s," he said. Skymet will issue its monsoon forecast on April 15 while IMD is likely to release its prediction in the second half of the same month. Singh ruled out any chance of this year's rainfall being excessive. Economists and analysts feel there is a correlation between the Indian monsoon and agri markets, particularly certain commodities grown in rain-fed areas.

While there's no guarantee of El Niño, and certainly there are individuals who want to exaggerate claims or invent rumors for their own ulterior motives (for money, no less; maybe to short certain commodities or currencies), but outright ignoring warnings based on unsubstantiated claims of conspiracy is fool-hardy. Very dangerous. It's especially astounding for IMD to claim that public agencies are conspiring to invent rumors. If El Niño becomes apparent by the end of April, it's going to be my hope that IMD reverses its position and trusts the science, so that India can properly prepare.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/west-spreading-el-nino-rumours-india-meteorological-department/articleshow/32568141.cms

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #351 on: March 24, 2014, 06:40:01 PM »
ASLR there is certainly a chance that we'll see an intense El Niño soon and if so I won't be surprised if the annual global mean will set new a record for 2015 and maybe also this year.. So was the case during the powerful event 1997-1998. At that time the global mean temperature for 1998 smashed the previous record then from 1995 by a wide margin for the globe as a whole.. At least if one looks at data from NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

A powerful El Niño doesn't mean that we'll get a new global temp record.. So was the case after the other powerful el Niño event in 1982-1983..

Btw, virtually the whole Pacific now has positive anomaly in the zonal wind.. A new Westerly Wind Burst seems to have developed around the date line...

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1050
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 135
  • Likes Given: 68
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #352 on: March 24, 2014, 06:48:48 PM »
LMV, the 82-83 Nino coincided with the El Chichón eruption in Mexico, hence the lack of record global temperatures then.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Chich%C3%B3n#1982_Eruption
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #353 on: March 24, 2014, 07:24:50 PM »
BFTV: thank you for the very important info!! THAT explains why it didn't become a new record then!! :)

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2076
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #354 on: March 24, 2014, 07:28:24 PM »
the simple fact that we did not experience any cooling event during the massive sequestration of heat energy into the deeper ocean layers during this long-running negative PDO shows that we are poised to have a warming event that will be significantly higher than the 1997-1998 El Nino.

I suspect that we will likely break through 1.2C above pre-industrial within the next 3 years and follow along closely with the ECS 4.5 curve shown in Michael Mann's Scientific American image:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/articles/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036_large.jpg



Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #355 on: March 24, 2014, 08:53:28 PM »
NOAA has just published the attached image of the SST anomaly for March 24 2014; which shows a strong positive IPO pattern; but also shows that the EKW (Kelvin wave) has not yet surfaced in many portions of the Central and Eastern Pacific:

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #356 on: March 24, 2014, 09:01:20 PM »
Weekly Niño 3.4 index is now positive for the first time December, jumping 0.5 C in the last week.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 01JAN2014     23.7 0.0     25.2-0.2     26.3-0.3     28.2-0.2
 08JAN2014     24.2 0.1     25.1-0.5     26.0-0.5     28.2-0.2
 15JAN2014     25.0 0.6     25.2-0.4     25.9-0.7     28.0-0.3
 22JAN2014     25.4 0.6     25.6-0.2     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 29JAN2014     25.4 0.2     25.3-0.7     25.9-0.7     27.9-0.2
 05FEB2014     25.1-0.4     25.3-0.8     25.9-0.7     28.1 0.0
 12FEB2014     25.4-0.6     25.4-0.9     26.2-0.5     28.5 0.4
 19FEB2014     25.1-1.1     25.7-0.7     26.4-0.4     28.5 0.4
 26FEB2014     25.5-0.7     26.0-0.6     26.3-0.6     28.2 0.1
 05MAR2014     26.1-0.3     26.4-0.5     26.6-0.4     28.5 0.3
 12MAR2014     25.8-0.6     26.8-0.3     26.8-0.4     28.7 0.6
 19MAR2014     25.2-1.2     27.3 0.1     27.4 0.1     28.8 0.6

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

This same week in 1997, Niño 3.4 was also 0.1 C. Coincidentally, having also increased 0.5 C that week.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #357 on: March 24, 2014, 09:09:59 PM »
Laurent,

To answer your question about where the warm water is coming from that is now entering the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, it is coming from the Western Equatorial Pacific, where it has been stockpiled by several years worth of unusually strong Pacific trade winds (look back through this thread for details), and now that the Equatorial Pacific trade winds have diminished and now that strong westerly winds have appeared in the Western Equatorial Pacific; this stockpiled water is now traveling as an Equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW, from the West to the East.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #358 on: March 24, 2014, 09:20:32 PM »
deep octopus,

Based on the data in Reply #356 that you posted (ie that the Nino3.4 index increased by 0.5 from March 12 to March 19 to a five day old value of +0.1); it is starting to look like my estimate that the Nino3.4 index would exceed +0.5 by the first week in April may have been too conservative, as it is possible that that value could be exceeded by the end of this week.  If so, a 2014-15 El Nino may very well be stronger that the 1997-98 event.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #359 on: March 24, 2014, 09:49:49 PM »
I think it's certainly reasonable that 2014-2015 could pan out to be more severe and more protracted than 1997-1998. El Niño conditions began around April 23, 1997 and ended around May 20, 1998. We're looking at El Niño conditions to start up any day now, though compared to 1997, we are basically on equal footing. Still, the start to this year could jump 1997 by an entire month, if the short-term fluctuations work out that way.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #360 on: March 24, 2014, 10:00:34 PM »
Well, if it turns out to be a exceptionally strong El niño event as many of us believe there will be some significant events that will be really interesting:

*) how many cat 5 hurricanes will show up in the Eastern Pacific and the Western Pacific? and just how calm will the season be in the Atlantic?

**) How much rain will California get next winter? Even if the rain will be much needed in that case it will also bring billion dollar costs due to flooding and so...

***) How big will the new global record annual high be?

****) Have I forgotten something that I should've been written here? ;D ::)

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #361 on: March 25, 2014, 02:35:38 AM »
deep octopus,

I agree with you that we need to be cautious; as fluctuations in a non-linear system can move the system in different directions, so we always need the most current data such as:

The attached image of the 30-day moving average of the SOI has a March 25 2014 value of -12.6.  While this number has become less negative in the past few days, it is still providing reinforcement from the atmosphere to assist the EKW to possibly switch the Pacific into an El Nino condition.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #362 on: March 25, 2014, 04:49:08 AM »
Non-linear is right. Ocean dynamics is a particularly taxing field of physics. If we enlarge the scale, we can sometimes reveal something of a linear change: El Niño has an often straightforward trough to peak change over the average course of a single event, but it's when we shrink the scale and over generalize that we run into problems. I'm very much banking on El Niño forcings to wipeout negative feedbacks, but the day to day observations can be confusing and make you agonize with the thought that you really don't understand. It's fortunate that so many factors are coming together so agreeably to (seemingly anyway) make observing these events easier for students to nature as myself. I trust that these unanimous trends in the winds and the currents are bona fide and not about to hoodwink me. But watching the sea ice's signals only fade to smoke and mirrors has made me less trusting overall. Arctic sea ice may be the most capricious ocean system I've ever made the mistake if trying to pin down. Once bitten, twice shy. Large systems like the tropical Pacific have a longer observed history to apprecuate. This El Niño to be, I say again cautiously, looks pretty real.

Also prescient is the horrible news of the mudslides in Washington state. It is an eerie dress rehearsal to what may befall western North America next winter.

icefest

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 258
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #363 on: March 25, 2014, 05:29:35 AM »
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has updated their assessment of the likelihood of an ENSO this year.

No words of judgement regarding a super Nino

Quote
While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter.
Observations indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently warming. Following two strong westerly wind bursts since the start of the year, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed significantly over the past two months. This has led to some warming at the surface, with further warming expected in the coming weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to –13—the lowest 30-day value since March 2010—but would need to remain firmly negative for several weeks to indicate the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Open other end.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1783
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 435
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #364 on: March 25, 2014, 07:41:55 AM »
It looks like TAO 110 has gone down so TAO 155 is the last one still transmitting. Such a shame to lose a long term data set right when it might illuminate the change in how our oceans ventilate during
an El Nino.

icefest

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 258
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #365 on: March 25, 2014, 08:15:24 AM »
Don't hold your breath for Australian funding for any new TAO system. The current science minister of Australia, err no, that post has been abolished.
The Minister for Environment is too busy quoting wikipedia and retracting climate funding to help either.

I hope my apology on behalf of my Government will suffice.
Open other end.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #366 on: March 25, 2014, 11:55:15 AM »
deep octopus,

I agree that if one tries to look to closely (in order to try to appease the insatiable appetite of decision makers for predictions to help them with their decisions all made on the margin) then climate change resolved down into weather patterns, which show no long-term trends; in effect one "cannot see the forest for all these trees in the way".  Any coming El Nino (super or otherwise) will unfold at its own pace and time.

icefest,

Thanks for posting the BoM's weekly ENSO wrap-up that notes that the chance of an El Nino occurring in 2014 has increased.  In Replies #315 and #344 I provide quotes from scientists indicating that if the chances of an El Nino occurring this year increase, then the chances of a Super El Nino occurring are as high as 80%.  The BoM statement also notes that we are still several weeks away from knowing whether the atmospheric and oceanic systems start mutually reinforcing each other, and I believe that that is correct as the EKW is still in the process of surfacing.  It will be interesting to watch unfold.

Best,
ASLR
« Last Edit: March 25, 2014, 03:37:09 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

ccgwebmaster

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1085
  • Civilisation collapse - what are you doing?
    • View Profile
    • CCG Website
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #367 on: March 25, 2014, 04:52:22 PM »
I'm going to confess significant ignorance about ENSO - but is it wrong to expect that if there is a strong El Nino we will probably see another round of major coral damage/death?

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #368 on: March 25, 2014, 05:00:20 PM »
I'm going to confess significant ignorance about ENSO - but is it wrong to expect that if there is a strong El Nino we will probably see another round of major coral damage/death?

Coming to a theater near you.

Quote
Coral reef ecosystems world-wide have been subject to unprecedented degradation over the past few decades. Disturbances affecting coral reefs include anthropogenic and natural events. Recent accelerated coral reef decline seems to be related mostly to anthropogenic impacts (overexploitation, overfishing, increased sedimentation and nutrient overloading. Natural disturbances which cause damage to coral reefs include violent storms, flooding, high and low temperature extremes, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, subaerial exposures, predatory outbreaks and epizootics. 

http://www.marinebiology.org/coralbleaching.htm

johnfbruno.web.unc.edu/files/2011/11/Bruno-et-al-2001.pdf
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1783
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 435
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #369 on: March 25, 2014, 05:09:35 PM »
Ccg, Bleaching is a function of heat + time of exposure. NOAA maintains satellite temperature maps that can show worldwide "watch" areas for bleaching. As heat builds up in the Western Pacific as is the normal summer condition that is where you can expect to see bleaching events. As that built up heat moves into the Eastern Pacific the "watch" areas will most assuredly concentrate there. Cocos Island was very hard hit in 97-98 for example and whatever regrowth has occurred in the last decade will now bleach and die again till someday soon corals start to become locally extinct.

 http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 545
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #370 on: March 25, 2014, 05:40:11 PM »
A strong/super EP Nino will also likely have significant impacts on the Amazon rainforest in the form of a drought.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4627
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 508
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #371 on: March 25, 2014, 08:03:38 PM »
A strong/super EP Nino will also likely have significant impacts on the Amazon rainforest in the form of a drought.

See also the video & discussion over at http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,761.msg21507.html#msg21507
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #372 on: March 25, 2014, 11:27:15 PM »
The Australian BoM has just posted the attached image of the Nino3.4 time series ending with a weekly average (for the week ending March 23 2014) of +0.13; which represents a +0.18 increase from the comparable value for the BoM value for the week ending March 16 2014; and is only represents a +0.03 increase from the NOAA value for the week ending March 19 2014, that deep octopus posted.

This indicates that changes in the Nino3.4 index are not linear, or guaranteed at this point, and it might be a two or three weeks yet before the EKW comes to the surface enough to start providing more positive reinforcement to the atmosphere (to support an El Nino condition).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #373 on: March 26, 2014, 02:52:54 AM »
The attached image for the 30-Day Moving Average for the SOI ending March 26 2014 have a value of -12.5; which indicates that perhaps the ocean and atmosphere are starting to reinforce each other in changing to an El Nino condition:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #374 on: March 26, 2014, 01:35:18 PM »
The first attached image shows the earth surface wind map for March 26 2014; which shows that the intensity of the Pacific trade wind is decreasing.

The second image shows that the equatorial cloud cover near the date line for March 26 2014 remains abnormally high.

Both of these trends indicate that the atmosphere and the ocean are starting to reinforce each other for a switch to an El Nino state.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #375 on: March 26, 2014, 03:54:09 PM »
The following linked reference (with a free access pdf) confirms that most current ENSO projection models (used by NOAA, BoM, etc.) treat westerly wind bursts, WWBs, as random (stochastic) forcing events; however, particularly for strong El Nino events this paper indicates that there is a SST-WWB feedback loop where a strong Equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW, creates more WWBs than normal which then strengthens the EKW (as we have seen this year).  Furthermore, WWB's are most likely during the period from November through to April; and therefore, I am concerned that as the current EKW surfaces in the by the end of March, that April may well experience an increase in the number and severity of tropical storms (and possibly typhoons), that together with the MJO that is projected to reach the Central Equatorial Pacific by late April (or possibly not); these two factors could kick the current fledgling El Nino event into high gear:

Geoffrey Gebbie & Eli Tziperman, (2008), "Incorporating a semi-stochastic model of ocean-modulated westerly wind bursts into an ENSO prediction model", Theor Appl Climatol., DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0069-6

https://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=100084&pt=2&p=119089

Abstract: "Prediction models of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon often represent westerly wind bursts (WWBs), a significant player in ENSO dynamics, as stochastic forcing. A recent paper developed an observationally motivated semi-stochastic statistical model that quantifies the dependence of WWBs on large-scale sea-surface temperature. This WWB model is added here to a hybrid coupled model, thus activating a two-way SST-WWB feedback. The WWB model represents both the deterministic and stochastic elements of WWBs and thus is especially appropriate for ensemble ENSO prediction experiments. An ensemble of retrospective forecasts is performed for the years 1979–2002. Overall statistical measures of predictability are neither degraded nor improved relative to the hybrid, coupled general circulation model, perhaps because of the limitations of the hybrid coupled model and the initialization procedure used. While the present work is meant as a proof-of-concept, it is found that the addition of the WWB model does improve the prediction of the onset and the development of the large 1997 warm event, pointing to the potential for ENSO prediction skill improvement using this approach."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #376 on: March 26, 2014, 05:23:23 PM »
According to one Internet site, the following are some consequences of an El Nino event:

Primary effects: these are directly caused.
Alteration of weather patterns which include: Temperature changes, Precipitation changes, Storm track changes and intensity, and Alteration of currents and ocean temperature

Secondary effects: these are some consequences:
Fires, Drought, Flooding, Economic changes, price of heating, food, etc., Political and social unrest, Crash of some fisheries, Famine, Plagues (e.g.: hanta virus, flu), Insect population explosion leading to disease and plagues, and Crop failures.

Some benefits of El Niño:
Fewer hurricanes and other tropical cyclones in the north Atlantic, Milder winters in southern Canada and the northern continental United States, Replenishment of water supplies in the southwestern U.S. , and Less disease in some areas due to drier weather (like malaria in southeastern Africa).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #377 on: March 26, 2014, 09:08:12 PM »
If you compare the SST anomaly at the Tropical Date Line area, for the first image for March 24 and the second image for March 25 2014; you will see that in only one day the water temperatures are increasing markedly at the EKW surfaces.  This will help with the transition of the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern, showing growing synergy between the ocean and the atmosphere.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #378 on: March 26, 2014, 10:19:24 PM »
If the 2014-15 season roughly matches the 1997-98 Super El Nino season, then by this coming mid-August the global SST anomaly could very well look like the attached (which could have some impact on some limited portion of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

ChasingIce

  • New ice
  • Posts: 85
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #379 on: March 27, 2014, 12:13:42 AM »
here is a small GIF of the SST anomalies through the month of March. 

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #380 on: March 27, 2014, 01:14:06 AM »
As pointed-out in the ASIB (by Colorado Bob), the larger climate change blogs like robertscribber and thinkprogress, are now acknowledging that an El Nino event may likely happen sooner, rather than later, this year (see links below):

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/25/monster-el-nino-emerging-from-the-depths-nose-of-massive-kelvin-wave-breaks-surface-in-eastern-pacific/

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/26/3417812/el-nino-extreme-weather-global-temperature/

Also, the Peruvian Government formally acknowledges that it is likely that an El Nino could start in April (Peru is effected by an El Nino sooner than the rest of the world so their forecasts need to be more proactive), as discussed at the link below:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-peru-elnino-fishing-idUSBREA2I21C20140319
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #381 on: March 27, 2014, 03:34:10 AM »
Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI for March 27 2014 (Sydney Time); which remains unchanged from yesterday's value of -12.5.  Thus it does seem that the ocean and the atmosphere are starting to reinforce each other synergistically:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2708
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #382 on: March 27, 2014, 01:35:49 PM »
Models seem to be agreeing on rapid move to El Nino, particularly the recent ones (blue):



but more recent models seem to be going fairly flat in weak el nino conditions.

Only 1 model below 0.5 by November so El Nino look highly likely at some stage and early April a strong candidate but indications of 'super' from models isn't very clear - just yet anyway. May well be sensible to be concerned about super El Nino from other information posted here rather than relying on models too much though.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #383 on: March 27, 2014, 02:24:17 PM »
One of the best ways to manage the uncertainties associated with ENSO related events is to hold someone responsible for the consequences for those events.  For example, the Peruvian government has issued an El Nino warning for April 2014 (see Reply #380), as the serious consequences of an El Nino to their economy forces them to use robust decision making, RDM, to take precautionary measures.  Another example (that is the focus of this post) is the insurance industry, who will bear significant economic losses from a severe El Nino unless their forecasts adequately justify either higher premiums and/or cancellation of high-risk policies; as illustrated by the following linked article (from March 3 2014) about a statistical based model to better assess the risks for tropical cyclones (typhoons) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) linked to variations of storm tracks associated with ENSO fluctuations.  While, the whole article is educational, I post the abstract and a key extract from the article below (together with few of my comments on the interpretation of these finding as related to our current situation):

http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2014/03/04/enso-effect-on-east-asian-tropical-cyclone-landfall-via-changes-in-tracks-and-ge-a-468934.html#.UzQZFaPn_IU

Abstract: "Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Niño-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Niño years to the northwest in La Niña years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Niña. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Niña-year increases."

Selected Extract: "The most important change of WNP TCs with ENSO appears to be the shift in genesis location to the southeast during strong El Nino events and to the northwest during strong La Nina events (Chan 1985, 2000; Dong 1988; Lander 1994; Saunders et al. 2000; Wang and Chan 2002; Chia and Ropelewski 2002; Camargo et al. 2007a). The shift is explained by the location of the monsoon trough in the WNP shifting eastward during El Nino events (Lander 1994) along with a reduction in vertical wind shear (Clark and Chu 2002), which both dictate favorable conditions for genesis. This shift results in changes in the tracks of the subsequent TCs: those that form in the southeast have longer lifetimes and tend to recurve northward as compared with those that form in the northwest that move straight westward onto land (Wang and Chan 2002). Elsner and Liu (2003) further studied the ENSO effect on tracks and implications for landfall, finding that strong El Nino years correspond with northward recurving TC tracks, which are likely to make landfall on Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and northern China. During La Nina years, TC tracks move in a straighter westward path, putting the Philippines, southern China, and Vietnam at higher risk. The TC-track cluster analysis performed by Camargo et al. (2007c) for the WNP demonstrates that the different genesis regions associated with El Nino (La Nina) years are also associated with longer (shorter) tracks. One important implication is that El Nino-year TC tracks in the WNP have more of an opportunity to reach higher intensities as they travel over the warm tropical ocean given a genesis location closer to the equator and farther eastward. El Nino-year TCs may also reach higher latitudes when they curve northward, before making landfall (Camargo and Sobel 2005; Chan and Liu 2004; Camargo et al. 2007c). The last two effects are important when making a landfall risk assessment in terms of landfall intensity and landfall location."

Key considerations relating these findings to our current situation include:

- Super Typhoon Haiyan, which occurred in ENSO neutral conditions in November 2013, fed rapidly on the very warm deep waters piled-up in the Western Pacific by the historically strong trades winds for the several years preceding that event, and then moved nearly due west to hit the Philippines as the strongest storm in history.

- Super Typhoons are more likely to occur (resulting in more numerous events) during a strong El Nino event because in El Nino years the storm tracks occur closer to the equator and farther eastward (than during neutral or La Nina conditions), and thus the storms have more opportunity to reach higher intensities as they travel longer distances over the warm tropical ocean, while curving northward towards high targets with high economic value in Japan, Korea and Northern China.

- Due to the more southeasterly locations for the locations of genesis of typhoons during strong El Nino conditions; the westerly wind bursts, WWBs, associated with these geneses provide a strong positive feedback to strength the El Nino event.

- The closer that we get to the peak typhoon (tropical cyclone/storm) activity season (July-October), the more likely we are to get positive WWB feedback from tropical storms for strengthening the current fledgling El Nino; which is one of the reasons (together with the projected coming of the MJO in the Pacific) that I am concerned about a major typhoon occurring in April (similar to Super Typhoon Isa) that could kick our current El Nino into the Super category.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #384 on: March 27, 2014, 02:41:35 PM »
With the newest OSPO anomaly chart, the Pacific basin has mostly above-average SSTs uniformly along the equator. I take away from this that the EKW has surfaced throughout, though GODAS charts of the subsurface that would show this are only updated to March 19th at this point. Yet, we have the clearest signal to date that the Niño 3.4 region is now firmly in a positive phase.



There's a bit of upwelling still occurring off of South America, but not much. The presence of warm water off of the Peruvian and Chilean coastlines may indicate that the Humboldt Current is getting stressed by the EKW, and this would effectively short circuit the key source of cool water flowing into the equatorial Pacific. What else, the western Pacific warm pool is still heavily orange, and this indicates that there is quite a reservoir of heat waiting in the wings for more Kelvin wave action. A strong push of westerlies would rush this across a Pacific already getting hammered by the strongest Kelvin wave since at least 1997. And as ASLR just indicated, this persistent warm pool along the equator is tinder for super typhoons to intensify. The OSPO chart above and the Wikipedia map of the 1997 Pacific typhoon season below show that the warm pool and the genesis of typhoons in 1997 are similarly located around the Marshall Islands at 170 W. With this piece of history, there is grand potential for strong typhoons to bring extreme weather to east Asia and also cause El Niño to fester.



In addition, the PDO warm phase is making itself at home. Nothing from the OSPO charts indicates a warm PDO phase quite this strongly since about 2005.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #385 on: March 27, 2014, 03:26:30 PM »
As I do not have time to adequately summarize all of the reasons (previously stated in this thread) that "process-based" ENSO projections (including the ensemble forecasts posted by NOAA) do not adequately capture the probabilities associated with the formation of Super El Nino events; therefore, I will make a brief post to reinforce some of the points that deep octopus just made in his Rely #384.

The attached image shows a typical strong El Nino condition similar to those conditions currently shown by deep octopus, to a period of about two weeks from now.  Key points to be made about this image include:

- The reversed atmospheric pressure system across the Tropical Pacific is currently indicated by the -12.5 SOI value; which is weakening the trade winds; which allows gravity to induce eastward flow of the warm water stockpiled (with a gravitational potential energy head) in the Western Tropical Pacific; even in the absence of strong westerlies.
- The image shows that as the EKW impacts South America is forms two pole-ward coastal-trapped (Kelvin) waves (CTWs) that branch both northward and southward; and this southward branching CTW diminishes both the upwelling of cold water of the coast of Peru, and the diminishes the northwesterly flow of the Peru-Humboldt Current (that typically feeds cold water into the Equatorial Pacific).
- The warm SSTs near the equatorial date line area helps to support the transition of the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern that generate westerly winds in the Western Equatorial Pacific that also forces more of the large pool of warm water from the Western Equatorial Pacific eastward.

While such conditions do not guarantee that a strong El Nino will form, in a non-stochastic world, they do increase the odds that a Super may well be coming.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #386 on: March 27, 2014, 04:52:32 PM »
Todays ECMWF 00z forecast put a very interesting sign! In about a week or so a tropical cyclone may form in the Western North Pacific.. The 00z forecast indicates an almost westerly track at a very low latitude for TC, only about 7-8N.. And yes, that may mean big trouble for Phillippinia.. If this mornings forecast run continues next days we might see something really nasty next month.. Since 1996 and onward four TC's in WPAC have managed to reach at least category 4 intensity in april (Isa in 1997 was the only one to reach cat 5). Those years were 1997 and 2003-2005.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #387 on: March 27, 2014, 07:41:48 PM »
The attached image from the BoM (see link) shows the pathway of the MJO over the past 40-days (see explanatory note for the image below).  This image shows that from mid-February to early March a reasonably strong MJO was in the Pacific where it may have contributed to some of the WWBs that helped strengthen the EKW in that period.  The figure also shows that the MJO is currently relatively weak and has not quite made it into the Indian Ocean.  We will see when, and at what strength, it returns to the Pacific; and whether it then helps to strengthen the El Nino that likely will be gaining strength between now and the end of April (when the MJO might arrive in the Pacific).

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Explanatory Note: "The MJO phase diagram illustrates the progression of the MJO through different phases, which generally coincide with locations along the equator around the globe. RMM1 and RMM2 are mathematical methods that combine cloud amount and winds at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere to provide a measure of the strength and location of the MJO. When the index is within the centre circle the MJO is considered weak, meaning it is difficult to discern using the RMM methods. Outside of this circle the index is stronger and will usually move in an anti-clockwise direction as the MJO moves from west to east. For convenience, we define 8 different MJO phases in this diagram."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #388 on: March 27, 2014, 07:50:02 PM »
Thanks Lord Vader,

It will be very interesting to see what storm activity we can expect in the coming weeks. If MJO returns in late April, that could really double down on an El Niño.

We've been trying to determine just how serious this Kelvin wave is, and a couple of graphics of subsurface temperatures "looking from above" from NOAA really put this one into sharp relief.

At 155 meters below the surface, a 7 C (yes, seven) anomaly pocket is forming at 160 W. I have to admit, this blows me away. I expect a 7 C pocket to show up in the next weekly equatorial subsurface temperature graphs from NOAA. Notice, too, the widening of the warmest zones over the latitudes. This is a beastly, monster Kelvin wave.


At 105 meters, a 6 C pocket is forming at 130 W.


In addition, the thermocline is undergoing some dramatic deepening over the central Pacific. There is some lifting of the isotherm in the west, suggesting an overall flatter isotherm over the Pacific. Gravity, as it were, is helping to ripple the warm water over to the eastern Pacific.



Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #389 on: March 27, 2014, 08:02:48 PM »
And as ASLR just indicated, this persistent warm pool along the equator is tinder for super typhoons to intensify. The OSPO chart above and the Wikipedia map of the 1997 Pacific typhoon season below show that the warm pool and the genesis of typhoons in 1997 are similarly located around the Marshall Islands at 170 W. With this piece of history, there is grand potential for strong typhoons to bring extreme weather to east Asia and also cause El Niño to fester.

I have a son and daughter who are both teaching in the Marshall Islands. They love it but they have stories about how frightening strong storms can be.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #390 on: March 27, 2014, 08:21:10 PM »
Doc Ock, did you see the latest ECMWF 12z forecast? Interestingly, the presumptive TC in the WPAC seems to get even stronger in this run... And it also looks to track along 150E-140E and together with the fact that it in that case will track on a low latitude it would certainly give the WWB some extra kick..

And yes, next update from NOAA on monday will certainly be extremely interesting as we then enter april 1... If it then is a 7C anomaly at that analysis, it will absolutely make one wonder where it will end... It would be very interesting to see a similar analysis for the SST anomaly for the 1997-1998 El Niño event at various depths!!


AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #391 on: March 27, 2014, 10:07:02 PM »
I believe that the attached series of three images of forecast tropical storm activity in the Western North Pacific for April 2,3 & 4, respectively, is the storm that Lord Vader is referring to, and if it occurs, it will certainly kick more warm water eastwards.

Also, a 7 degree C anomaly indicates to me that climate change is likely making El Nino's stronger than in the past (just as Super Typhoon Haiyan was the strongest on record), and I note that the maximum temperature anomaly for the 1997-98 EKW was just 4.5 degrees C.

Finally, I thought that I would post the following three quotes, saying: (a) AccuWeather is confident that an El Nino has begun; (b) the 1997-98 El Nino caused an estimate $35-$45 billion in damage & 23,000 deaths; and (c) we have now gone about 45 months without a proper El Nino while the longest period since 1950 without an El Nino was 50 months, so we should have a large amount of energy stored in the ocean:

"According to AccuWeather Long Range Forecaster Mark Paquette, "We are confident that an El Niño is in the early stages of developing and may reach moderate strength moving forward into mid- to late summer of 2014."
From:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-impact-will-the-coming-el/24864631

"The strongest El Nino ever recorded occurred in 1997-98. It led to heavy rains across the southern U.S., landslides in Peru, wildfires in Indonesia, and the cratering of the anchovy fishery in the eastern Pacific. These and other impacts were responsible an estimated $35-45 billion in damage and 23,000 deaths worldwide."
From:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-could-make-super-el-ninos-more-likely-16976

"We've now got 43 months without a proper El Niño and no matter what happens, we know it will be a couple more months like this, therefore it is extremely interesting to note that there have been no recorded periods of more than 50 months without El Niño since 1950."
From Reply #13 on January 22 2014; so it has now been 45 months without a proper El Nino.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2014, 10:22:31 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #392 on: March 27, 2014, 10:21:10 PM »
ASLR: the very same TC indeed  8) It will be interesting now to see if ECMWF continues to forecast this TC the coming days. And as you said it will for certain kick more warm water eastward due to its westerly track along low latitudes... We will then be in the beginning of april but if that TC keeps a westerly track it will likely be really bad news for Phillippinia.. Especially if it takes a similar path like Haiyan did...

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #393 on: March 28, 2014, 02:11:28 AM »
As the attached image of the 30-Day Moving Average SOI through March 27 2014 has become more negative with a value of -13.0; it appears that the ocean-atmosphere synergy is strengthening so I would expect the Nino3.4 to be near or higher than +0.5.  We will need to see how fast this fledgling El Nino gains in intensity.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #394 on: March 28, 2014, 03:20:39 PM »
The attached Tropical Storm forecast for April 4 2014, is advanced by 12 hrs from the image in Reply #391 for the same date, and this figure indicates that the storm centered around 140E & 5.5N is clearly forecast to be gaining strength, & will most likely hit the Philippines as a typhoon, and will kick a good amount of warm water from the Western Equatorial Pacific towards the east (which will strengthen the growing El Nino).

I would like to note that while the NOAA (and other ensemble model) "official" and "semi-official" forecasts  only acknowledge slow to moderate intensification of our current El Nino condition; any prudent decision maker should now be considering the probability that the 2014-15 will be more severe than the 1997-98 event (based on: (a) the strength of the current EKW; (b) the earlier start of both the current El Nino event and the typhoon season [and that the genesis locations for the typhoons in this current season appear to be closer to the equator where they provide positive feedback for the El Nino; (c) the currently positive indices for both the IPO & the PDO; (d) chaotic strange attractors can amplify strong El Ninos faster than weak El Ninos; (e) the CTWs appear to be reducing the flow of cold water from the Peru-Humboldt current into the equatorial region, as well as reducing upwelling off the cost of Peru; (e) the SOI is currently -13.0 and is trending towards more negative values; (f) the ocean heat content in the Equatorial Pacific is greater than at any time in recorded history; (g) the AGW is proceeding on a BAU pathway which provides positive feedback to strengthen an El Nino; (h) in my opinion many of the Earth System's positive feedback mechanisms (e.g.: GHG from tropical rain forests, polar albedo, tropical cloud cover, and permafrost degradation) could preferentially strengthen a Super El Nino; (i) the MJO is projected to re-enter the Pacific by late April; and (j) the IOD is projected to be positive by the Fall of 2014 (austral Spring), which raises the possibility that a 2014-15 El Nino event could grow into a 2014-2016 event.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #395 on: March 28, 2014, 04:36:53 PM »
The fact that we may be entering a transition into a strong/super (or maybe within the bounds of a fat-tail potential for an extreme--let's say a seasonal Niño 3.4 index above 2.5 C) El Niño raises the disturbing possibility of global temperature records getting shattered. Not just beating 2010, but completely obliterating it. The most extreme temperature anomalies would be expected begin during autumn of 2014 and persist through the spring months of 2015. The room for volatility grows with the strength of El Niño. Lagged surface temperature responses to Niño 3.4 have a tendency to amplify with a warm Niño 3.4 far more strongly than during the opposite phase in La Niña. In other words, a strongly warm Niño 3.4 index should result in much warmer atmospheric responses, while a strongly cold Niño 3.4 index has comparatively smaller atmospheric responses.

Even weak El Niño events have shown to result in severe temperature anomalies. The weak 2006-2007 El Niño resulted in the warmest month ever recorded: January 2007, with a 0.94 C anomaly over 1951-1980. As a weak event, the temperature response was sharp, but rather short, as La Niña quickly moved in. This may have prevented 2007 from being the hottest year on record at the time.

A back of the envelope calculation of changes in NASA global temps during the northern hemisphere cold season (November through April--also the peak of ENSO-atmosphere response) gives us some examples of what the strongest El Niños are capable of doing:

Average global Nov-Apr anomalies compared to previous year

1956-1957 (neutral): -0.09 C
1957-1958 (strong El Niño): +0.16 C
Delta: +0.25 C

1971-1972 (neutral/weak La Niña): -0.08 C
1972-1973 (strong El Niño): +0.23 C
Delta: +0.31 C

1981-1982 (neutral): +0.11 C
1982-1983 (strong El Niño): +0.33 C
Delta: +0.22 C

1996-1997 (neutral): +0.40 C
1997-1998 (strong El Niño): +0.66 C
Delta: +0.26 C

Average delta: +0.26 C

By no means is every ENSO signal isolated--volcanic eruptions, aerosols, and other short-term climate factors add distortion. In fact, the 1982-1983 event was muted by the El Chichon eruption. But mercifully, we see that these strong El Niños followed relatively neutral ENSO conditions from the previous year, so we have something of a "control" here for the delta calculations, at least with respect to ENSO.

The average delta for these four events was about +0.26 C.

Supposing 2013-2014 is our neutral backdrop, and assuming the November-April period will have an average of +0.60 C, it's reasonable that 2014-2015 will average +0.86 C a month from November 2014-April 2015. This would probably make 2014 the hottest year on record, and 2015 even hotter.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #396 on: March 28, 2014, 05:28:45 PM »
deep octopus,

I like your mean global temperature anomaly risk analysis for 2014-15.  Attached is a graph of the increase in the variance of El Nino during the Anthropocene; indicating to me that strong El Ninos are gaining strength with increasing global warming, and I am personally concerned that by December 2014 to January 2015 that the Nino3.4 could get into the range of +3.0.

Also, I noted that per the following NOAA information the December 1997 Nino3.4 index value was +2.69:

YR   MON  NINO1+2   ANOM   NINO3    ANOM   NINO4    ANOM NINO3.4    ANOM     
1997  12      26.92       4.13      28.76    3.62      29.32     0.83   29.26        2.69

Best,
ASLR
« Last Edit: March 28, 2014, 05:34:26 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #397 on: March 28, 2014, 06:19:34 PM »
Just to remind people that due to the convex shape of the EKW for the week ending March 23 2014 the Nino3 value of +0.23 (see first attachment), and the Nino4 value of +0.51 (see attachment 2) were both more positive than the corresponding Nino3.4 value of +0.13. However, as the EKW surfaces one can expect the Nino3.4 index to raise relatively rapidly (see the third attachment showing the locations of areas 3, 3.4 and 4, which you can compare to the locations of the submerged temperature anomalies that deep octopus provides in Reply #388):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 545
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #398 on: March 28, 2014, 10:39:08 PM »
An update to CPC to March 24th. The scale maxes out at +6C unlike the depth-time charts that can go above that (like the one that was pegged at +7 posted earlier).


AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18778
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2036
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #399 on: March 29, 2014, 12:29:50 AM »
Csnavywx,

Thanks for the image that you posted.  When you stop to think that the length of the underwater region with temperature anomalies above +6 is about as long as the distance between Portugal and the Ural Mountains (ie the length of Europe) you get a sense of the amount of heat being transported that has never been seen before in recorded history (as I noted before the peak temperature anomaly during the 1997-98 event was only +4.5 instead of something over +7 at the moment [and possibly still getting hotter]).  Who knows what will happen when this hot water runs into South America and branches pole-ward with two CTWs to Alaska and to Terra del Forego.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson