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Author Topic: Northwest Passage thread  (Read 115291 times)

Polynya88

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #300 on: July 13, 2017, 11:24:00 PM »
Larsen Snd. has a lot of Old Ice in it now, but the supply of Old Ice for it runs NW all the way to Barrow Strait which should continuously feed it all season. This should give anyone transitting the NWP ice to look at all year!  Last year passengers complained there was no ice to see, but things look much different this year.  Old ice feeding into Larsen Snd./Victoria Strait making it difficult to transit used to be very common in past years - ask Frankllin!

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #301 on: July 14, 2017, 12:47:24 PM »
Old ice feeding into Larsen Snd./Victoria Strait making it difficult to transit used to be very common in past years - ask Frankllin!

However I can't help thinking that the "old ice" in 2017 is much less substantial than in 1846?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #302 on: July 14, 2017, 02:47:59 PM »
So are you one of those old fogies who declare everything was better in the olden days?  :o :P ::) ;D (sorry about that  :-\)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #303 on: July 14, 2017, 05:42:22 PM »
I might be old but I'm certainly not a fogie!

Be that as it may, depending on the wind and weather over the next few weeks it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that the small vessels currently heading in the direction of the Northwest Passage might encounter some problems by the time they reach the central section of the southern route:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #304 on: July 15, 2017, 05:17:03 AM »
Sept 2 1969
McClure Strait


When in the McClure strait however, ice 15' to 20' high and sometimes as deep as 100 feet proved too much for the Manhattan.
[/size]
[/size]S.S.Manhattan and the North West Passage
[/size]http://sunshiporg.homestead.com/manhattan.html

[/size]The times they are a-changing
[/size]Terry





oren

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #305 on: July 15, 2017, 10:17:58 AM »
Thanks for the link Terry.
On Sept 2, 1969, the S.S.Manhattan turned her huge armored bow toward Baffin Island and started encountering her first ice floes at approx. 14 feet thick. The Manhattan, cracking off half-acre floes, sailed on without a quiver.  As the blocks grew larger,  more power was required and the Manhattan broke though ice floes as thick as 60 feet.
14ft thick in early Sept in Baffin? 60ft thick floes? Changing times indeed.


Polynya88

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #306 on: July 16, 2017, 06:32:19 PM »
Although there can be some discussion on the current thickness of the Old ice poised to drift down to Larsen Snd. this coming summer, in the attached clip of Lndst is one of several ice island fragments that will come down with the mix,  and will certainly be thick even if nothing else is!

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #307 on: July 17, 2017, 03:32:14 PM »
This is what nunavummiut think about the cruise ships: $$$

http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674ship_to_shore_cruise_season_begins_next_week_in_iqaluit/

Meanwhile, heavy fuel oil is likely to soon be banned in the Arctic because it causes too much pollution -- black carbon and sulphate in particular. That development mitigates the damage of all the new shipping.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #308 on: July 23, 2017, 06:33:54 PM »
The Finnish icebreaker Nordica has successfully negotiated Larsen and Peel Sounds and is entering the Parry Channel:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#comment-222475

No pictures of the sea ice in the area have been published yet though.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

RikW

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #309 on: July 24, 2017, 09:41:53 AM »
Well, then at least one ship succesfully used the passage this season, since the rest of the route is as good as ice-free

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #310 on: July 24, 2017, 04:39:13 PM »
Well, then at least one ship succesfully used the passage this season

However the Nordica is an icebreaker, so the part of the NWP she has just negotiated is not yet "open" for less sturdy vessels.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #311 on: July 25, 2017, 07:12:47 PM »
Plenty of pictures of the Nordica breaking ice in the Victoria Strait:

https://apimagesblog.com/blog/2017/7/25/icebreaker-leaves-jagged-beautiful-arctic-icescapes

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #312 on: July 26, 2017, 04:41:03 PM »
From David "Duke" Snider, ice pilot aboard Nordica:

Less [MYI in Larsen Sound] than charts indicate. More Second Year than old ice but still a challenge. Would stop non icebreakers in their tracks.



Plus thick FYI in Peel Sound:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

slow wing

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #313 on: July 26, 2017, 10:18:55 PM »
Really nice pics! Thanks Jim.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #314 on: July 27, 2017, 01:39:13 AM »
Here's another one from Larsen Sound:


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Hyperion

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #315 on: July 27, 2017, 09:53:20 AM »
Wow Jim! that 2.5m thick stuff in peel sound sure looks solid. (red square)
Especially compared to the 1.5 m stuff in Larsen. (red circle)
 ::)
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #316 on: July 27, 2017, 11:33:18 AM »
Wow Jim!


I'm not quite sure of the point you're trying to make? Your red square seems to cover Barrow Strait, and I'm afraid I don't have much faith in the DMI thickness map at the best of times. Here's the CIS stage of development map of the area instead. Larsen Sound is shown covered in brown "old ice". Victoria Strait and Peel Sound are full of "thick first year ice".
« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 06:08:37 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #317 on: July 29, 2017, 10:06:39 PM »
I put up a picture of "thick first-year ice" on the picture-of-the-day thread. The stuff is pretty porous, but it's still big!

News today is the Nordica set the record for the earliest crossing, reaching Nuuk on the 29th. The previous record was going the other way, Barrow on the 30th:
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/north/northwest-passage-msv-nordica-1.4227619

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #318 on: July 31, 2017, 07:39:17 PM »
There's a Canada 150 expedition heading through the Northwest Passage. They've posted a link to a live feed/image gallery.

https://canadac3.ca/en/expedition/live-feed/

Strange thing though they don't include location details so hard to tell what we are looking at. Just says "Nunavut"

There is a separate map charting the boat's progress. Again no indication how up to date this map is. Still gives an idea of location.
https://canadac3.ca/en/expedition/expedition-map/

« Last Edit: July 31, 2017, 07:44:35 PM by ghoti »

Andreas T

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #319 on: July 31, 2017, 08:49:26 PM »
according to that site the MV Polar Prince should be in have been recently in Iqualuit, maybe Numerobis has some information?
« Last Edit: July 31, 2017, 09:04:32 PM by Andreas T »

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #320 on: August 02, 2017, 02:41:42 AM »
MV Prince is in Baffin Bay near Iqaluit. The ice looks extremely thin but would show up on satellite as lots of area and extent...

Stop motion video is available:
https://canadac3.ca/en/expedition/live-feed/

Andreas T

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #321 on: August 04, 2017, 03:12:20 PM »
On 3,6,7 bands Terra https://go.nasa.gov/2wruFuO it looks like this:

Andreas T

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #322 on: August 04, 2017, 03:29:14 PM »
Further west the first year ice in Victoria sound is gone but what remains between there and Bellot strait had a scatterering of old ice mixed in at the end of last season and will be a bit more resilient. It could of course be replenished from the North.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #323 on: August 05, 2017, 11:34:16 PM »
The C3 expedition left Iqaluit a few days ago en route to Qik. I'm looking forward to stories from a friend who's on it for just that leg of the trip; next week I think.

There had been a worry whether it would be able to sail, but there's a relatively clear path through the ice now. In part from melting, in part from winds being southerly for a while.

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #324 on: August 06, 2017, 01:03:41 AM »
Looks like their August 5 cruise into the fjords of Auyuittuq National Park were ice free.


numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #325 on: August 06, 2017, 03:27:46 AM »
The fiords yes, Cumberland Bay not so much:
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/getprod.pl?lang=en&&prodid=WIS33C&wrap=1

The green stuff you don't need a fancy ship for, you just sail slowly and steer around the ice (or bump into it once in a while -- you can hear the sound from that for miles). But it's still "extent" being at 20% concentration.

Andreas T

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #326 on: August 06, 2017, 10:55:44 PM »
all the same overlaying the ship track map over the 3,6,7band MODIS of the 5.AUG shows the ship chose a path of least resistance, it possibly makes for more economical (and ecological) use of the ships fuel?
https://go.nasa.gov/2vEPt5u
https://canadac3.ca/en/expedition/expedition-map/
I changed the colour of the track to green for contrast

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #327 on: August 06, 2017, 11:00:43 PM »
I cannot help but wonder if prospective Northwest Passage cruise customers have been reading my blog:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#comment-222664
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #328 on: August 07, 2017, 05:24:27 AM »
Andreas: I'm not sure about ecological, but definitely economical -- you can steam much faster if there's no ice to hit.

Andreas T

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #329 on: August 07, 2017, 03:19:59 PM »
I was thinking of fuel consumption and therefore carbon footprint etc. It might be more economical to burn a lot of fuel to go quicker along a longer route if cost of the ship and crew is factored in, but it may also be  burning less fuel on a longer route if propulsion through ice is less efficient. I don't know but have read about large efficiency gains possible with novel icebreaker designs which suggest that running through ice increases fuel consumption significantly.
Just making some guesses on motivation for the more circuitous route.

Polynya88

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #330 on: August 07, 2017, 03:56:11 PM »
One of the main reasons for such a route is typically for schedule purposes - ships keep speed to about 4kts in ice to avoid heavy impacts with ice (plus avoidance maneuvers), whereas they will do probably 16kts in Open Water. I've heard many ice pilots say a mile of ice is like 10 miles of open water.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #331 on: August 09, 2017, 05:47:45 PM »
Going West, looks like you can make it to Resolute via Baffin. Might want to pay close attention for the last few miles into port.

Going East, it's clear sailing all the way to Taloyoak.

Between the two, there's a few spots of 50% concentration ice (labeled P in the ice chart) -- 20% thick (>1.2m) first-year ice and 30% ice less than 70cm thick, floes in the tens to hundreds of meters diameter. So it's very close to open.

You'd still need a fair bit of recklessness to go through without an icebreaker though: winds blow the wrong way and you get 90+% concentration ice moving in to close off the passage.

But hey, for a mere $40k for a couple, how can we resist hopping on that cruise ship?
« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 05:56:48 PM by numerobis »

Phil.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #332 on: August 09, 2017, 09:14:50 PM »
Looks like Bellot strait will be the way to go this year.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #333 on: August 09, 2017, 09:33:22 PM »
Albeit an icebreaker, CCGS Amundsen has made it through the hard part travelling east to west:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#comment-222696
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #334 on: August 12, 2017, 11:10:18 PM »
You'd still need a fair bit of recklessness to go through without an icebreaker though: winds blow the wrong way and you get 90+% concentration ice moving in to close off the passage.

Winds blew the wrong way!

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #335 on: August 16, 2017, 02:52:25 PM »
Crystal Serenity has left Seward on its way to the Arctic and the NW passage:

https://my.yb.tl/CrystalSerenity

What sort of ice conditions will it face when it gets beyond Cambridge Bay? Time will tell.

Polynya88

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #336 on: August 16, 2017, 03:53:51 PM »
There appears to be some confusion as to what Serenity may encounter in Larsen Sound. Note in the above ice chart area B is 7/10 Old ice, and now in the chart below, that area (now C) has been changed to 7/10 First-year... Something not right about that!

silkman

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #337 on: August 16, 2017, 10:06:28 PM »

The RRS Ernest Shackleton is currently in Baffin Bay, a long way from its home at Port Stanley in the Falklands.

It's clearly on the way to the NW Passage to support the Crystal Serenity with its ice breaking capability, helicopter and zodiacs as it did last year.

A nice little earner for the British Antarctic Survey I'm sure but at the cost of the mixed blessing of increased high cost eco-tourism.

It will be interesting to watch the progress of this second Serenity trip nonetheless.  At least it delivers a clear message about the dramatic changes taking place in the Arctic.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #338 on: August 17, 2017, 03:25:04 AM »
Polynya88: The stages of development in the figure are 7 and "4." which are both first-year ice stages. I don't see any older ice mentioned.

7 is 70cm ice; 4. is 120+ cm ice. The dot is significant.

Polynya88

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #339 on: August 17, 2017, 04:46:33 AM »
Sorry to say, but that is not correct. Note that there is a dot (.), and all numbers to the left are assumed to have a dot. Thus the 7 is actually 7.  which is old ice.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #340 on: August 17, 2017, 01:04:06 PM »
Oh, I've been misreading these charts! Good thing I'm not a captain.

Indeed, seems odd the ice got from mostly old ice to mostly thick new ice, just about overnight.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #341 on: August 17, 2017, 01:36:24 PM »
I suspect the categorisation is only nominally based on age and in fact depends more on thickness.  This is irrelevant during the freeze-up, when thickness depends on age (new ice being thin, older ice being thicker), etc.  However, during the melt season it's perfectly plausible to have "old" ice that is only 20cm thick because most of it has melted.  Note that there is no category for thin old ice, and even the categories for thinner first-year ice are structured around the formation process.

Polynya88

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #342 on: August 17, 2017, 02:06:17 PM »
Correct. The inability of the Canadian ice codes to indicate stage of melt does show 10m thick Old ice and (as you mentioned) 20cm. thick Old ice as the same thing. On a technical note however, in the WMO Sea Ice Nomenclature (WMO-No.259), all ice less than a year old is categorized by thickness, and all ice older is categorized by age.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #343 on: August 17, 2017, 02:46:46 PM »
There is another classification, which is the size of the floes. In practice, does thin old ice actually exist, or does it simply break up into floes before getting thin?

Peter Ellis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #344 on: August 17, 2017, 03:58:48 PM »
Correct. The inability of the Canadian ice codes to indicate stage of melt does show 10m thick Old ice and (as you mentioned) 20cm. thick Old ice as the same thing. On a technical note however, in the WMO Sea Ice Nomenclature (WMO-No.259), all ice less than a year old is categorized by thickness, and all ice older is categorized by age.
Sure, I know how it's supposed to work.  In practice though I suspect that the shift you point out where an area was dominated by old ice one week and young ice the next is because the thickness has dropped far enough that it's now being scored as effectively equivalent to young ice.  Remember these are operational products designed to tell ship captains how hard a given area will be to traverse.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #345 on: August 18, 2017, 07:15:16 PM »
Crystal Serenity is heading for Dutch Harbor as we speak, whilst the Ernest Shackleton is about to negotiate Bellot Strait on its way to meet her:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/crystal-serenity-sails-the-northwest-passage-in-2017/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Phil.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #346 on: August 18, 2017, 08:25:52 PM »
There appears to be some confusion as to what Serenity may encounter in Larsen Sound. Note in the above ice chart area B is 7/10 Old ice, and now in the chart below, that area (now C) has been changed to 7/10 First-year... Something not right about that!

Looking at the weather forecast for Talyoak for the next week they expect highs of 60+ and clear sunny weather so maybe we'll see some significant changes.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #347 on: August 19, 2017, 02:04:49 PM »
Shackleton will be facing some 50% ice and a short bit of 70% ice. Other than that, the coast is clear... unless the winds turn.

solartim27

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FNORD

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #349 on: August 19, 2017, 11:30:17 PM »
A glimpse through the haze suggests a passage could open up along the shores of the Boothia Peninsula soon, should favourable winds prevail:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein