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ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #50 on: July 10, 2015, 08:34:10 PM »
Has anyone seen this year's equivalent to last year's http://www.enablingwebsites.com/sv_novara_track.html ?

News of people beginning their Northwest Passage treks is starting to surface but I haven't managed to find a site tracking boats on the way.

jdallen

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #51 on: July 15, 2015, 07:56:01 AM »
Serious shattering starting at either end of the main strait.
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mati

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #52 on: July 15, 2015, 03:18:21 PM »
Has anyone seen this year's equivalent to last year's http://www.enablingwebsites.com/sv_novara_track.html ?

News of people beginning their Northwest Passage treks is starting to surface but I haven't managed to find a site tracking boats on the way.


I dont see any registered ships in the area, just some along the greenland coast of davis strait:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-55/centery:68/zoom:6
and so it goes

bosbas

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #53 on: July 15, 2015, 08:55:19 PM »
According to Climate Reanalyzer the air temperature at Banks has been above normal for a long time (and continues that way). I wonder if that will have an impact later. But I don't know what the temperature was in 2012 in that area; it could be it is only a little departure from the norm.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #54 on: July 16, 2015, 02:29:33 PM »
unlikely - e.g. Eureka had new record temperatures for this date.

Neven

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #55 on: July 17, 2015, 11:16:18 AM »
Western entrance (or exit, depending on how you look at it) is breaking up real fast now, with cracks all the way up to the eastern tip of Victoria Island.
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #56 on: July 17, 2015, 11:48:02 AM »
Western entrance (or exit, depending on how you look at it) is breaking up real fast now, with cracks all the way up to the eastern tip of Victoria Island.

I'm wondering if we might not see the CAA fully melt out this year. Has that ever happened before?

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #57 on: July 17, 2015, 12:14:52 PM »
I'm wondering if we might not see the CAA fully melt out this year. Has that ever happened before?

Nope, the main channels north of Melville Island (Hazen Strait and Prince Gustav Adolf Sea), as well as Peary Channel north of Amund Ringnes Island have never been ice free at minimum.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #58 on: July 17, 2015, 12:38:15 PM »
I'm wondering if we might not see the CAA fully melt out this year. Has that ever happened before?


Nope, the main channels north of Melville Island (Hazen Strait and Prince Gustav Adolf Sea), as well as Peary Channel north of Amund Ringnes Island have never been ice free at minimum.


They would've been ice-free, notably in 2010 and 2011 (if memory serves me well), if it weren't for ice floes from the Central Arctic Basin pushing in, replenishing so to say the channels and straits. See for instance this blog post back in 2010.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #59 on: July 18, 2015, 04:48:38 PM »
An AMSR2 animation of the summer so far. For additional context see also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/07/is-time-running-out-for-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-210770

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #60 on: July 18, 2015, 05:22:48 PM »
Western entrance (or exit, depending on how you look at it) is breaking up real fast now, with cracks all the way up to the eastern tip of Victoria Island.

Looks like yet another week to come of mostly in situ melting, though with moderate ESE winds that will flush some of that broken ice out into the rapidly melting eastern Beaufort.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #61 on: July 21, 2015, 11:36:56 PM »
Break-up is continuing apace:
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jdallen

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #62 on: July 22, 2015, 12:50:34 AM »
The fracture zones are within 150KM or so of one another.

I wonder how much faster the disintegration will proceed once they do?
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #63 on: July 22, 2015, 01:01:25 AM »
The fracture zones are within 150KM or so of one another.

I wonder how much faster the disintegration will proceed once they do?

Depends upon the wind.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #64 on: July 22, 2015, 01:13:14 AM »
The fracture zones are within 150KM or so of one another.

I wonder how much faster the disintegration will proceed once they do?


Depends upon the wind.


Not sure if this forecast is any better than the thickness models, but looks to be at least several days highly conducive to sailing north. The 24th looks especially exciting.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #65 on: July 22, 2015, 01:29:44 AM »
Wind forcasting is driven from far different data sources, with more depth to the data, and more mature models.  We can also look at other sources as well.
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #66 on: July 22, 2015, 08:41:21 AM »
The skies have cleared; anther great shot of the NW passage end-to-end; fracturing propagating from the west side has almost reached the open water to the east. Not much more than about 100K separating the fracture zones.

Note lots of discoloration and probable melt ponds.  This ices is definitely on the way out.
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Laurent

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #67 on: July 22, 2015, 09:39:24 AM »
A bit of zoom to see cracks are very close.

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #68 on: July 24, 2015, 05:16:56 AM »
The late ice in Baffin and Hudson Bay has caused havoc in the summer resupply shipping to Nunavut. Combine this with the current Canadian govt's political agenda and Arctic researchers seasons are being ruined.

http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674ice_federal_mission_hamper_arctic_science_and_sealift_this_year/

Andreas Muenchow must be thinking it is a good thing he refused to sign the contract with the Canadian govt gag order a couple of years ago.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #69 on: July 25, 2015, 06:23:47 PM »
It's currently 54o (F) in Resolute, with 26 mph winds.  That should help melt and move some ice in the NW Passage.
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #70 on: July 25, 2015, 10:06:56 PM »
It's now 58F (15C), and forecast to reach 50F (10C) every day for the next seven days.

Neven

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #71 on: July 25, 2015, 11:36:30 PM »
All of the ice is fragmented now (go to LANCE-MODIS for a more detailed look)



Now we wait and see how long it takes to move/melt out.
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #72 on: July 26, 2015, 08:54:37 AM »
It's going to melt as completely out as much as possible this year.
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #73 on: July 26, 2015, 11:51:18 PM »
The ice just west of Ellesmere looks off-color, there even seems to be a crack south of Meighen. Is the ice there actually weakening? I thought that part of the CAA would hold out even in years where Perry Channel would all melt out.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #74 on: July 26, 2015, 11:54:26 PM »
No, it can all break up and start to move, like happened in 2010 and 2011, AmbiValent. What happens then is that ice from the CAB moves into the channels and straits of the CAA, and that old, thick ice moves from the channels and straits into the NWP.
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Neven

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #75 on: July 29, 2015, 12:07:31 AM »
Another clear view today of a NWP full of cracked ice:

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #76 on: July 29, 2015, 12:18:03 AM »
One week:
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AmbiValent

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #77 on: July 29, 2015, 11:15:32 PM »
And now, several more cracks around Meighen, while further west in the CAA the ice looks more solid (where visible). Any idea whether heat has an easier way to get to Meighen, or was the ice there weaker to begin with?
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #78 on: August 08, 2015, 06:27:54 PM »
The NW Passage blog is reporting sections opening much earlier than before.

http://northwestpassage2015.blogspot.ca/2015/08/nw-passage-route-5-6-segment-opens.html


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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #79 on: August 11, 2015, 02:20:27 AM »
So is there now a Bellot Strait route open everywhere except in Bellot Strait itself, and its western approaches?

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #80 on: August 11, 2015, 02:30:31 AM »
It really looks that way on Worldview today. The strait looks ice clogged and the western end still has some ice clearly blocking it. From descriptions from people making the passage in previous years it seems there is usually much more ice in their way than we seem to see on Worldview so I doubt anyone will be attempting the strait this week.

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #81 on: August 12, 2015, 03:47:53 AM »
Apparently the Canada Ice Service is not providing ice charts to people attempting the passage this year. They have released the chart covering the eastern approach to Resolute but not one that includes the Beloit

http://northwestpassage2015.blogspot.ca/2015/08/canada-ice-service-20150811-daily-ice.html

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #82 on: August 13, 2015, 10:13:47 PM »
Is there some entity that would officially call the (southern portion of the) NW Passage open? If so, have they done so, yet. It sure looks like it is no passable.
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #83 on: August 13, 2015, 10:35:01 PM »
Is there some entity that would officially call the (southern portion of the) NW Passage open? If so, have they done so, yet. It sure looks like it is no passable.


Not if you look at MODIS it doesn't. Cross posted from the 2015 melt thread:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1149.msg60671.html#msg60671



The Canadian Ice Service agree:

« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 10:41:16 PM by Jim Hunt »
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wili

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #84 on: August 13, 2015, 10:46:35 PM »
Yeah, that does look pretty different from what Bremen is saying. Is one of those more reliable than the other?
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ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #85 on: August 14, 2015, 02:19:18 AM »
Posts on the Northwest Passage 2015 blog are suggesting route 6 is open.

http://www.northwestpassage2015.blogspot.co.uk/

SV Salty Kisses has reached Resolute. I didn't see what their planned route from there is.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #86 on: August 14, 2015, 06:49:25 AM »
"Posts on the Northwest Passage 2015 blog are suggesting route 6 is open."

Would that be a record for earliest opening of a NW Passage? Where does one go for such records?
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #87 on: August 14, 2015, 07:33:53 AM »
Yeah, that does look pretty different from what Bremen is saying. Is one of those more reliable than the other?
maybe this wasn't meant as a serious question but it made me think about how I choose reliable sources of information.
In this case I ask myself: can I think of ways in which the MODIS camera sees something in the water which looks like ice from its movement and shape and the visible and infrared frequencies it reflects, but which isn't actually ice? I can't.  Can I think of reasons why the ice concentration graphic produced by Bremen university shows no ice concentration above 10%? I can have some guesses about the AMSR sensors ability to detect the broken up and possibly wet ice which the visible image suggests, but actually I can't claim to know enough about it to be sure.
What I do remember and others which have observed the data closely have pointed out too, is that sometimes ice which was absent from the AMSR derived charts reappears later.
The uni-bremen page which shows the chart states:
The ASI sea ice concentration algorithm used here has been validated in several studies (Spreen et al. 2005, Spreen et al., 2008).
However, no warranty is given for the data presented on these pages.

For the purpose of declaring the passage open to shipping which may require rescue if damaged by ice would it be a good choice to base the decision on the first or the last source of information?

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #88 on: August 14, 2015, 12:44:28 PM »
Posts on the Northwest Passage 2015 blog are suggesting route 6 is open.


Doug's blog is rather more optimistic than the Canadian Ice Service, or me! They still have 4-6/10 ice within a whisker of the coast. Would you fancy your chances in amongst that and a bit of a breeze?

The CIS definition of "navigable" is "a criteria of less than 60% ice cover over all sections of the Northwest Passage". See:

http://ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=765F63E4-1

and the inset map at:

http://ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=6096131E-1
« Last Edit: August 14, 2015, 03:57:29 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #89 on: August 14, 2015, 03:16:56 PM »
Looking at that chart the Northwest passage is officially open with no more that 60% ice for both the Prince Regent - Bellot Straight route or the Peel Sound route then south of King William Island.  Routes could be navigated with a maximum 50% ice concentration.  Routes north of King William Island would require passage through at least 20 miles of 70% to 80% ice concentration. 
I wouldn't do it but I'm sure there are many who would.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #90 on: August 14, 2015, 04:05:14 PM »
Looking at that chart the Northwest passage is officially open with no more that 60% ice for both the Prince Regent - Bellot Straight route or the Peel Sound route then south of King William Island.


My interpretation is different. Some areas coloured red in the "inset map" referred to do still contain 60% or greater ice cover (i.e. brown or red on the CIS chart). I therefore reckon that using the official CIS criteria the NWP was still "closed" at 6PM yesterday evening UTC.
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ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #91 on: August 14, 2015, 08:02:07 PM »
We shouldn't have too long to wait before we know for sure. SV Salty Kisses reports 5 boats are in port at Resolute.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=957551827600353

When they decide to give it a go we'll get confirmation of whether it is navigable or not.

Plus we have news from the boats that over-wintered in Cambridge bay that are currently heading towards Bellot Strait on their way east.
http://cornellsailing.com/2015/08/final-stage/
« Last Edit: August 14, 2015, 08:20:13 PM by ghoti »

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #92 on: August 14, 2015, 09:06:10 PM »
Heading east Aventura reports:

Soon we were surrounded by ice once again, but we carried on valiantly as with only 80 miles to go to Bellot Strait we are determined to get there before the day is out.
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #93 on: August 14, 2015, 09:34:41 PM »
Heading east Aventura reports:

Soon we were surrounded by ice once again, but we carried on valiantly as with only 80 miles to go to Bellot Strait we are determined to get there before the day is out.

The tracking map now shows them just a few miles from entering Bellot Strait!

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #94 on: August 14, 2015, 10:54:49 PM »
For details on multiple boat locations from Gjoa haven to Resolute, see http://www.thenorthwestpassage.info/. There's currently one boat at Bellot Strait (or a mile inland, if you trust their GPS!), one approaching from the Gloa Haven side, and others in/near Resolute and in Gjoa Haven.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #95 on: August 14, 2015, 11:07:11 PM »
There's currently one boat at Bellot Strait (or a mile inland, if you trust their GPS!), one approaching from the Gloa Haven side, and others in/near Resolute and in Gjoa Haven.


The latest news from the CIS et al.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/is-the-northwest-passage-open-yet/#comment-211349

I reckon the Northwest Passage is still not “open” using the CIS’s criteria, but the worst now looks to be behind Aventura?


The Necton seems to have taken much the same route as Aventura, but there currently seems to be no evidence that either of them have made it through to the Eastern end of Bellot Strait?
« Last Edit: August 14, 2015, 11:13:20 PM by Jim Hunt »
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ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #96 on: August 15, 2015, 01:41:21 AM »
The map points and track (on http://www.thenorthwestpassage.info/ )  do seem to show Necton through to the eastern side of Bellot now. Also seems as if SV Selma is now approaching Bellot from the east.

So the boats are ignoring our pronouncements of the passage being open yet or not and focusing on avoiding ice damage and continuing along their way.

The Necton website seems to say (if Google translate got it right) that there was a lot of ice in the way but they boldly proceeded where they had no ice charts and found a route to Bellot. http://www.necton.nl/
« Last Edit: August 15, 2015, 01:50:01 AM by ghoti »

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #97 on: August 15, 2015, 03:06:33 AM »
SV Salty Kisses just tweeted at around 9pm EDT on the 14th that they were approaching Peel Sound and seeing 2/10 ice.

https://twitter.com/SVPrili/status/632353417403494400

Yesterday's ice chart seemed to say there was 5-7/10 ice there but I'm no expert at reading those charts. Looks like they'll be avoiding Bellot and just head south through Peel.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #98 on: August 15, 2015, 11:48:24 AM »
Thanks ghoti,

I hadn't spotted Necton's own site previously, but the tracking map there shows they made it through Bellot Strait early yesterday:

http://www.necton.nl/index.php/spotfinder

They're currently speeding into Lancaster Sound, whilst Aventura emerged from the Bellot Strait early today:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/is-the-northwest-passage-open-yet/#comment-211367
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #99 on: August 16, 2015, 04:38:52 AM »
According to www.thenorthwestpassage.info, there are 3 east-to-west boats all in about the same position today, a quarter of the way down the west side of Somerset Island. They are all attempting to bypass Bellot Strait: Bagheera, Snow Dragon II, and Salty Kisses. Another east-to-west boat, the Selma, is just entering the east side of Bellot Strait. Two west-to-east boats, Necton and Aventura, have already passed through Bellot Strait, with the Necton now all the way to the northern tip of Baffin Island. A busy few days for the waters surrounding Somerset island!