Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Carbon Cycle  (Read 113288 times)

Apocalypse4Real

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #50 on: June 24, 2013, 04:58:45 PM »
In regard to Arctic Ocean acidification, I have been watching the O-Buoy 7 CO2 readings for several weeks. They seem to be running between 465-480 ppm. If this is the CO2 release across broad areas of the Arctic Sea ice, it is very troubling.

The chart is attached, and link is: http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy7/co2

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #51 on: July 09, 2013, 04:26:37 PM »
Here is a thesis paper on acidification of the arctic ocean. Based on previous work the paper projects a switch to smaller Phytoplankton, increased bio-productivity and undersaturation of Arctic influenced waters. Atlantic influenced waters will still be saturated in 2100. Increased bio-productivity will lead to an intensification of the carbon pump causing deep waters to acidify at an increasing rate. The thesis is linked and written in a understandable way.
https://bora.uib.no/handle/1956/6744

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2011
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #52 on: July 14, 2013, 04:05:06 PM »
Apologies if this has already been linked:


http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climate-Change-Nature-Science-Carbon-Tipping-Point-Coming.html

there are 3.1 billion tons of extra carbon being added from the atmosphere.  Since carbon dioxide is a very stable compound, it will stay in the atmosphere for many years.  If we assume that this same kind of flux will be more or less maintained from now until the end of the century (the “end of now” time-frame that I talk about in my book), the atmospheric concentrations of carbon will grow by close to 50%. This is a major difference that directly affects our energy balance with the sun.

3.1 billion tons is less than half of what we emit into the atmosphere (red broken arrows in the picture).  The difference means that both the earth and its oceans have now become net “sequesters,” or absorbers of the excess carbon dioxide that we produce.  Vegetation and soil, in the form of enhanced growth because of the carbon dioxide that fertilization contributes, and areas of the ocean that absorb carbon dioxide, contribute as well.  As the temperature rises, the capacity of these methods of compensation is expected to decrease, until they reach the point where both the earth and our oceans no longer absorb the carbon dioxide, but instead reverse themselves to be net emitters.  Some would call this a “tipping point.”

This makes us part of the physical system that we investigate, and negates, at least in my mind, the option of waiting with remedies until the consequences of these changes are absolutely certain.  Science tells us that the danger exists, so the remedies should be approached as an insurance premium.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ananthapriya

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 10
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #53 on: July 30, 2013, 06:26:02 AM »
The wood burned off just a few years ago could have created co2 which through photosynthesis became part of a plant. When you eat that place, the same carbon from the wood which was burnt can become part of you.
dan

Apocalypse4Real

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #54 on: July 31, 2013, 06:00:31 AM »
It seems an area of high CO2 concentration registered on the METOP 2 IASI imagery on July 29, 12-24 hr.

The highest concentration was 447 ppm. I cannot narrow to an exact location, but suspect Antarctica.

Image attached.

 

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #55 on: August 29, 2013, 04:46:08 PM »

 
 

Effects of low pCO2 conditions on sea urchin larval size
Posted: 23 Aug 2013 12:46 AM PDT
Ocean acidification results from an increase in the concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) impacts on marine calcifying species, which is predicted to become more pronounced in the future. By the end of this century, atmospheric pCO2 levels will have doubled relative to the pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. However, the effects of pre-industrial pCO2 levels on marine organisms remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the effects of pre-industrial pCO2 conditions on the size of the pluteus larvae of sea urchins, which are known to be vulnerable to ocean acidification. The larval size of Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus significantly increased when reared at pre-industrial pCO2 level relative to the present one, and the size of Anthocidaris crassispina larvae decreased as the pCO2 levels increased from the pre-industrial level to the near future ones after 3 days’ exposure. In this study, it is suggested that echinoid larvae responded to pre-industrial pCO2 levels. Ocean acidification may be affecting some sensitive marine calcifiers even at the present pCO2 level.


Suwa R., Nojiri Y., Ono T. & Shirayama Y., in press. Effects of low pCO2 conditions on sea urchin larval size. Marine Ecology. Article (subscription required).

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #56 on: August 29, 2013, 05:04:48 PM »
The last post says Atmospheric Co2 will have doubled by 2100 but we have the resources to push atmospheric past 900.
http://theconversation.com/change-the-fundamentals-and-you-are-in-an-ocean-of-trouble-17460

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2525
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #57 on: September 29, 2013, 10:11:54 PM »
Interesting study about possible involvement of the viruses in the carbon cycle !
http://www.mpi-bremen.de/en/Viruses_and_algae_in_the_Sea.html

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #58 on: September 30, 2013, 02:30:14 AM »
Laurent, Viruses can also attack bacteria and release polysaccharides. The polysaccharides are more difficult to remineralize than simple sugars ,it takes several months to remineralize them. This semi-labile carbon can mix into deeper depths than the more labile carbon processes like the one described in the article linked above from Bremen although the article doesn't talk much about the fate of the crystal like  structures in the picture.Viruses do play a  role in the carbon cycle and the processes 
that transform Dissolved organic matter ,and Particulate organic matter ,into Dissolved
Inorganic Carbon( remineralization )  I would venture to say there is much to be learned about the interaction of viruses and bacteria in the carbon cycle and various carbon sinks. 
        http://plankt.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/08/12/plankt.fbr069.full

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #59 on: October 09, 2013, 06:33:05 AM »
Here is some of the latest news on both the politics and science on California Current acidification.
  "Here on the California coast, deep water rises to replace surface water driven offshore by seasonal winds. Ironically, the upwelling that fuels the biological bounty of the California Current brings acidified water toward the surface. Recent computer models predict that conditions here will reach a critical point for shell formation in mollusks and other marine creatures by 2050."

http://baynature.org/articles/ocean-acid-trip-hidden-harm-climate-change/
« Last Edit: October 09, 2013, 06:45:53 AM by Bruce Steele »

ritter

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 489
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #60 on: October 09, 2013, 07:22:37 PM »
Here is some of the latest news on both the politics and science on California Current acidification.
  "Here on the California coast, deep water rises to replace surface water driven offshore by seasonal winds. Ironically, the upwelling that fuels the biological bounty of the California Current brings acidified water toward the surface. Recent computer models predict that conditions here will reach a critical point for shell formation in mollusks and other marine creatures by 2050."

http://baynature.org/articles/ocean-acid-trip-hidden-harm-climate-change/

So sad. I can't imagine a lifeless California coast. But I guess that's where we are heading. You can't destroy the food web without serious repercussions.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #61 on: October 10, 2013, 07:22:37 AM »
Ritter, The quote above wasn't mine but it should say ' some mollusks '.  Some mollusks have a nacre covering their calcium carbonate shells, some can better cope than others by internally compensating against changing seawater pH. Many mollusks do seem sensitive however and I shouldn't be nitpicking over a quote I chose to link in an otherwise very sound piece.
 I try to think about the potential impacts of any changes in the carbon cycle. Recent work that showed a change from larger to smaller phytoplankton in mesocosm studies portends changes in the oceans ability to move surface water pCo2 into deeper waters . The lifetime of various carbon sinks varies greatly but the deep oceans can hold Co2 for more than a thousand years. Surface water can release Co2 back into the atmosphere if the difference in partial pressure favors ventilation . The point is we don't want to interrupt the carbon sink , we are messing with feedbacks that take tens to hundreds of thousands of years rebuild once they are compromised . Given enough time almost all the carbon we produce will end up in the ocean.  The ocean could handle all the fossil fuel carbon we could throw at it if it were released over a 100,000 timeframe. It can't handle 5,000 giggatonnes of carbon in 300 or even a 1000 years however. 2000 years to burn all the fossil fuel reserves would still result in acidified oceans and extinctions .             

ccgwebmaster

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1085
  • Civilisation collapse - what are you doing?
    • View Profile
    • CCG Website
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #62 on: October 10, 2013, 02:23:41 PM »
The ocean could handle all the fossil fuel carbon we could throw at it if it were released over a 100,000 timeframe. It can't handle 5,000 giggatonnes of carbon in 300 or even a 1000 years however. 2000 years to burn all the fossil fuel reserves would still result in acidified oceans and extinctions .           

And of course it also can't/won't handle massive potentially abrupt releases of carbon from natural feedbacks on track to occur pretty much whatever humanity does now. That's the real killer - the system is dead on it's feet, it just doesn't know it yet.

I have you to thank(?) for dispelling my initial naive assumptions that the oceans would recover nicely without the pressure of billions of people exploiting and degrading them, leaving a world of marine plenty for people in the future. Instead it seems the oceans are going bye bye, at least as a reliable food source and diverse ecosystem.

My assumption now is that the ocean will substantially simplify and anoxic regimes will increase substantially (if not prevail) - is there any grounds to expect that any portion of the rich and diverse ecosystem the ocean still represents even now will persist in any regions? (and if so, in which regions?)

One can only plan on what seems probable and practical...

ritter

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 489
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #63 on: October 10, 2013, 06:40:56 PM »
The ocean could handle all the fossil fuel carbon we could throw at it if it were released over a 100,000 timeframe. It can't handle 5,000 giggatonnes of carbon in 300 or even a 1000 years however. 2000 years to burn all the fossil fuel reserves would still result in acidified oceans and extinctions .           

Thanks, Bruce. Once again, we are looking at the rate of change as the principal thing that will spank us and every other system on the planet.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #64 on: October 11, 2013, 08:09:07 AM »
Ccg, If I could venture an educated guess I would think the shift in ph by 2050 will begin to have its largest effects in the North Pacific and Arctic waters first with surface pH  reduction to 7.9 or less.The Antarctic circumpolar waters should be close behind by ~ 2060. The entire west coast of North America will also be ( at least seasonally ) seeing surface pH at levels at or below 7.8 with extreme conditions during strong upwelling periods at levels down to 7.4.  The Humboldt current will probably see similar extremes but I am not as familiar with those waters .Upwelling  in the eastern tropical pacific is where the oldest waters in the world ventilate( back into the atmosphere ) so at least in tropical waters these are going to be the first tropical waters seeing a large shift relative to world averages. Indonesia and the Indian ocean next. The North Atlantic is one of the last places where O/A will get to similar pH levels. The saturation horizon is very deep in the Atlantic and although it is shoaling about 4 meters per year( maybe the fastest anywhere ) it will take longer to reach the point where surface upwelling can bring it up, unlike the pacific northwest where the saturation horizon is naturally much shallower. The aragonite saturation horizon is beginning to shoal upon the shelf waters of the Iceland Sea but I haven't heard of surface conditions anything like current conditions in Oregon and Washington state. Fiords with sills that trap waters masses I think are also problem spots but they do not represent the general conditions of the North Atlantic.
 I think where you are now Ccg may be some of the most resilient waters worldwide. There will be decades of much more difficult conditions elsewhere. The tropics will also change much slower than polar waters and surface undersaturation should be post 2100 if ever.
 You are completely correct that any additional carbon from cathrates or permafrost melting and remineralization of frozen organic matter will move these timelines forward but even without additional forcing the next 30 years of  fossil fuel emissions will lock in many of the changes described above. Sensitive creatures in North Pacific waters will of necessity move into Atlantic waters or perish. Not everything is sensitive to the pH changes projected over the next 100 years but less diversity seems inevitable at this point under BAU. Sorry if I am failing to source these projections, I have been at sea 5 of the last seven days , I need to get some sleep. Too many 15 hour days. I took Craig Welch out today. The ocean is still a beautiful place and current conditions locally seem little affected although spring upwelling does cause short periods of surface pH below 7.8 in upwelling areas nearby.             

ccgwebmaster

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1085
  • Civilisation collapse - what are you doing?
    • View Profile
    • CCG Website
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #65 on: October 12, 2013, 04:58:50 PM »
Ccg, If I could venture an educated guess I would think the shift in ph by 2050 will begin to have its largest effects in the North Pacific and Arctic waters first with surface pH  reduction to 7.9 or less.The Antarctic circumpolar waters should be close behind by ~ 2060. The entire west coast of North America will also be ( at least seasonally ) seeing surface pH at levels at or below 7.8 with extreme conditions during strong upwelling periods at levels down to 7.4.  The Humboldt current will probably see similar extremes but I am not as familiar with those waters .Upwelling  in the eastern tropical pacific is where the oldest waters in the world ventilate( back into the atmosphere ) so at least in tropical waters these are going to be the first tropical waters seeing a large shift relative to world averages. Indonesia and the Indian ocean next. The North Atlantic is one of the last places where O/A will get to similar pH levels. The saturation horizon is very deep in the Atlantic and although it is shoaling about 4 meters per year( maybe the fastest anywhere ) it will take longer to reach the point where surface upwelling can bring it up, unlike the pacific northwest where the saturation horizon is naturally much shallower. The aragonite saturation horizon is beginning to shoal upon the shelf waters of the Iceland Sea but I haven't heard of surface conditions anything like current conditions in Oregon and Washington state. Fiords with sills that trap waters masses I think are also problem spots but they do not represent the general conditions of the North Atlantic.

Thanks for that - gives a good overview I think. I seem to recall reading about fish migrating their ranges in response to warming water - is there any evidence of species doing so to move away from acidity? I assume many species cannot relocate their ranges so readily (particularly ones that build shells), but it strikes me less species are likely to be able to detect a ph change? (a bit like humans cannot detect radiation with their senses).

From http://hms.stanford.edu/profiles/acid.htm

While the benthic marine communities surrounding the vents are typical of Mediterranean rocky reefs (i.e., diverse communities with abundant calcifying organisms) the communities directly adjacent to the vents are dominated by fleshy algae and devoid of calcifying organisms such as sea urchins, gastropods, and coralline algae.

It seems volcanic vents might give us a little insight into what sort of species live under this regime. If it's mostly "fleshy algae" and you extrapolate that up across oceans, I guess the conditions will be replicated for the oil and gas deposits to be reformed (eventually)?

On an unrelated note, I'm inclined to wonder if large water oceans (as opposed to just "some water") might not be requirements for complex ecosystems to form at all (relevance to the hunt for extraterrestial life), given the role they play climatically.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #66 on: October 13, 2013, 08:36:37 AM »
Ccg, Old water that hasn't been at the surface tends to be enriched with dissolved Co2 and low in oxygen. These old waters once upwelled also bring nutrients to the surface where phytoplankton blooms and their bacterial decomposition draws down oxygen levels further as it releases even more Co2 . There is some anecdotal evidence of fish and crabs moving away from these anoxic or very hypoxic events but it is most probably the low oxygen driving these movements rather than the low pH conditions. We also know from ROV surveys of the very hypoxic/anoxic conditions in the 2006 Oregon anoxic event at Cape Perpetua that large numbers of crab can succumb even if some manage to run away.
 Conditions of very low pH are seasonal and depending on the strength of the winds  the upwelling can vary year to year. We don't have a canary in the coal mine or any biological proxy for OA except oyster larva in aquacultured systems that regulate both temperature and if need be oxygen content. In the open ocean you can't control the variables so it's very difficult to identify causation.  That is why anecdotal evidence is all we have to make important management decisions sometimes.
    http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2012/08/is_a_pacific_ocean_dead_zone_d.html

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #67 on: October 13, 2013, 08:57:10 AM »
Link to Cape Perpetua video. Before and after anoxic event.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2008/02/12/319.5865.920.DC1/1149016s1.mov

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #68 on: October 18, 2013, 06:55:55 PM »
At the start of this page back in March I linked ( Stuart linked ) a paper "Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models" Bopp et al 2013
  A new paper with some of the same authors is an examination of regional, Eco-systems, species groups, and human vulnerabilities worldwide to RCP 8.5  and RCP 4.5 emissions scenarios and ocean responses. "Biotic and human vulnerability yo projected changes in ocean bio-geochemistry over the 21st century: projections with CIMP5." Mora et al 2013
 This is a good followup on the Bopp  paper ..... Projections almost universally bad for Eco-systems and as a consequence people most dependent on those Eco-system services ( poor people ) will suffer more than the people largely responsible for the Co2 emissions... Part of a trend otherwise known as
" kick down "
  http://www.plosbiology.org/article/fetchObject.action?uri=info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1001682&representation=PDF

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #69 on: October 25, 2013, 07:38:33 PM »
Pacific oyster are sensitive to current low pH waters that seasonally shoal onto the shelf along the west coast of North America. Oyster larva have a yolk to supply energy for the first few days of life but low ph waters < pH 7.8 cause an increase in metabolism and as a result the larva run out of energy before they can complete development.
Here is a paper that show market squid , California's largest fishery , may have similar yolk energy
issues but a levels around pH 7.56.
 
 
TITLE: Response of embryonic market squid, Doryteuthis opalescens, to oxygen, pH and pCO2 from upwelling margin environments

AUTHORS (LAST NAME, FIRST NAME): Kwan, Garfield T.1; Navarro, Michael O.1; Levin, Lisa A.1, 2

Abstract Body: Market squid, Doryteuthis opalescens, is commercially and ecologically important to the nearshore California Current Ecosystem. Encapsulated squid embryos are site-attached to the seafloor, develop using a limited energy source (yolk), and can simultaneously exposed to near-hypoxic and high pCO2 (low-pH) environments on a regular basis. To understand whether these factors might be driving growth rate and yolk utilization response, we used a laboratory approach to compare effect(s) of each single-factor (i.e. high pCO2 v. low dissolved oxygen (DO)). We hypothesize that low-levels of pH and DO are independent stressors during squid embryogenesis. Specifically, we hypothesize that exposure to (a) low-levels of pH causes embryos to deplete yolk stores prior to hatching, and (b) low-levels of DO causes metabolic suppression. To test these hypotheses, squid embryos were chronically exposed to each factor independently: pCO2=1,350.8 µatm (pH=7.56), and DO=83.6 µatm. Half of the embryos were randomly selected and removed after 27 days of exposure and the other half after 32 days. Squid embyros were analyzed using photo-microscopy, and ImageJ software. We categorized embryonic stages using developmental signposts based on allometry (head width: dorsal mantle length) and calculated growth and yolk utilization rates. Standardizing by the development signposts revealed that embryos exposed to low-pH had faster growth and yolk utilization rates than embryos exposed to low-DO. Further, the yolk utilization rate indicates that prior to hatching the external yolk will be completely depleted for low-pH group, signifying that the later stages may be most affected. Embryos in the low DO group did not show conclusive negative effects from exposure. Future comparisons of these single factor treatments to multiple factors (low DO and pH) and no factor (i.e control) treatments will further elucidate these results.

 
« Last Edit: December 18, 2013, 12:17:50 AM by Bruce Steele »

JimD

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2146
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #70 on: October 25, 2013, 09:06:13 PM »
Bruce

Big surprise to me that squid would be Calif's biggest market fishery.  What is 2nd and 3rd?  Do you know the history of what catches were the biggest?  It sure would seem that it used to be salmon or tuna or other predator fish at one point. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #71 on: October 26, 2013, 12:28:39 AM »
JimD,  California is a boundary between southern and northern water masses and is much influenced by ENSO and PDO cycles. Different fish population benefit from either colder nutrient conditions or warmer southern waters. The max cap for market squid is 118,000 tons at $500-600 a ton. Dungeness Crab is #2 by value with lobster, sea urchin and salmon usually in the top five although salmon is very cyclic. Prior to 1972 Tuna was number one but those landings were from large boats that fished international waters prior to 200 mile limits ( now Mexican waters ). Markets play a roll in fisheries values and currently China is a large buyer of squid, lobster, and even Dungeness. My fishery ( sea urchins ) is marketed in the U.S. and Japanese markets that are weaker than in the 1980's. Black cod is another fishery that competes in the top 5 or 6 fisheries and Asia is the market for black cod also.
Huge portions of the shelf( mostly federal waters ) are closed to fishing to protect rock cod  stocks in rebuilding programs and California has closed about 20% of all state waters to both recreational and commercial fisheries . The U.S. Imports about 85% of it's seafood and the fisheries that we still have in California are largely export fisheries. Local lobster sell off the boat for over $20 a pound and most American restaurants can't sell  a $50 dollar lobster...
 Aqua- culture isn't very big around here because ascetics is more important than a steady food supply. Some longstanding oyster operations have been shut down in the Parks movement. We can claim we have no current overfishing taking place but we also have unfished rock cod stocks at +virgin biomass while we import fish from heavily overfished areas around the world.     

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #72 on: October 28, 2013, 06:56:09 PM »
Coral reef persistence
 "The projections here for conditions on coral reefs are dire, but provide the most up-to-date
assessment of what the changing climate and ocean acidification mean for the persistence of coral reefs." "There is no long term refugia from the effects of both acidification and bleaching. Of all reef locations( in this study ) 90% are projected to experience severe bleaching annually by 2055. Furthermore, 5% declines in calcification are projected for all reef locations by 2034."

 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12394/abstract

ChrisReynolds

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #73 on: October 28, 2013, 08:20:31 PM »
Squid? This all reminds me of Gorrilaz "Superfast Jellyfish".

The headline is wrong! But the article is accurate.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130503094700.htm

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #74 on: October 29, 2013, 07:11:29 AM »
Chris, A couple questions from the other side of the pond. Do you suppose cuttlefish bones are common on the beaches of Suffocks like I remember them as a lad?  The meare at Thorpness froze and ice skating was a dependable winter past time , do you think skating is a dependable winter sport these days?   And thanks for the Gorillaz ... Clint Eastwood kept me entertained while gardening

http://www.redbubble.com/people/waynebradshaw/works/1963153-thorpeness-beach-suffolk-3


« Last Edit: October 29, 2013, 07:20:12 AM by Bruce Steele »

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #75 on: November 01, 2013, 03:40:17 AM »
Will I get away
 Will I see it through
   On the return to Waterloo
As a child I lived in Thorpness England on the coast of Suffock 1957 to 1960. One winter the
meare ( a shallow lake ) froze and people ice skated for a couple weeks. My memories are corroborated by my parents memories, I called mom about this yesterday.  A googlesearch on skating lakes in England didn't get me far, apparently the lakes don't freeze anymore.
 Chris sent me on a Gorillaz kick a couple days ago. The old Ray Davies ( kinks ) tune" Waterloo Sunset" goes nicely with Gorillaz " Meloncoly Hill".
 This should probably be somewhere besides the Carbon Cycle page
Oh well, 

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #76 on: November 04, 2013, 08:16:16 PM »
Here is an article on O/A from Craig Welch , Seattle Times

http://apps.seattletimes.com/reports/sea-change/2013/nov/2/can-sea-life-adapt/?cmpid=2628
 
Mea culpa, you can see my boat on the video( linked in the article ) 
 I burn lots of fuel and as a result doing what I do for a living causes me a certain amount of guilt. I try to farm and put resources into perfecting low carbon farming technics but the only way I have figured to reduce my fuel consumption as a fisherman is to fish less. Fishing pays about 10 to 1 compared to farming.After twenty  days diving I will put the boat on the trailer and not use it for another year.
 The farm has 4 listed species, most of the land is undisturbed riparian southern cottonwood forest..and willows. I have never deep tilled and as a result the reptiles , owls, and critters dependent on small rodents do very well. This year badgers showed up. There are beaver and endanger steelhead in the river on the back of the property.
 It is very difficult to balance the good with the bad.  Every farmer and most fishermen think about what kind of shape the world we leave behind will be in. Most don't feel guilt over burning fuel, most don't study the carbon cycle. I have to do better, I know it , I hope more people begin to understand how many of the little birds, reptiles, fish are headed over the brink. I have to do better     

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #77 on: November 13, 2013, 07:23:17 PM »
But will the oceans always be able to take up that proportion of human CO2 emissions year in and year out?

Probably not in the near term, said Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego marine chemist Andrew Dickson. Dickson took over a program of measuring CO2 levels in the oceans that had been started by Charles David Keeling in the 1980s as a complement to his measurements of atmospheric CO2. Dickson has created the calibration standard for proper measurement of ocean CO2 levels. It is the basis of a protocol followed by marine chemistry labs around the world. Today Dickson’s lab prepares and bottles thousands of reference samples each year for distribution throughout the research community.

Dickson noted that although the oceans presently take up about one-fourth of the excess CO2 human activities put into the air, that fraction was significantly larger at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. That’s for a number of reasons, starting with the simple one that as one dissolves CO2 into a given volume of seawater, there is a growing resistance to adding still more CO2.

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/how-much-co2-can-the-oceans-take-up/

Andrew in a new TED Talks

   

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #78 on: November 16, 2013, 08:11:53 PM »
The first paper written about the biological impacts of ocean acidification was Kurihara and Shirayama 2004. I had a clipping service at the time for articles relevant to fisheries and they sent me the paper.  The Kurihara paper showed morphological changes to sea urchin larva due to " acidification ". This was bad news for a sea urchin fisherman.
I started trying to read everything I could find relevant to ocean acidification. For a fisherman ( even for a chemist ) carbon chemistry is a difficult subject but after rereading the papers available at the time I began to get some confidence in the subject matter I was trying to understand.  Into the rabbit hole I went.
Whatever education I have is self-education but having been involved in fisheries management since 1985 has given me access to some of the best sea urchin experts in the world. I needed to fact check my understanding of the carbon cycle and with a couple of introductions by the scientists I knew at the time I was able to connect with Vicki Fabry , Gretchen Hoffman and other scientists whose knowledge bridged the biological  and chemical aspects of acidification. It was difficult at the time trying to explain to my fishermen friends the ramifications of the changes taking place in ocean chemistry. Acidification isn't something you can see and for the most part the impacts are limited to larvae that you can't see either. When I did get through to some of my friends I managed to send them into some level of depression which takes time to struggle through.
By 2006 there was news of the oyster mortalities at hatcheries in Oregon  and Washington. The hatchery problems weren't directly tied to acidification at the time but collaboration between the shellfish growers association headed at the time by Robin Downey and  OSU scientists   Alan Barton and Burke Hales
discovered offshore winds, upwelling ,low pH and mortality events at Whiskey Creek hatchery coincided... The canary in the coal mine.
It has been a decade now since the Kurihara paper was published. Worldwide emissions of Co2 from cement and fossil fuels have increased from
~ 28gt( billion tons) to~ 35 gt annually. Recent projections are for global ocean biodiversity to decrease by 30 % over the next 80 years. This is an extinction event in progress.  The fishing industry as a whole hasn't been on the 10 year bummer that I have. The aquaculture industry is on high alert thanks in large part to the owners of Whisky Creek, Alan Barton , Robin Downey and the financial help provided by Washington Senator Maria Cantwell.
In summary it has been the effort of dedicated individuals ,and  cooperation that has largely put aside the downsides of academic competition or the sharp elbows that fly when trying to track down limited funds , that has moved us forward.
Locally acidification has been incorporated into the elementary school curriculum .
Maybe my fishing friends will not respond until the hatchet falls on their fishing quotas. None of this will make a damn bit of difference if our collective Co2 emissions continue to increase. We had about 40 years to stop all carbon emissions when I started and we have about 30 left to avert the sixth large extinction in the history of life on earth.  


JimD

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2146
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #79 on: November 18, 2013, 04:06:36 PM »
Bruce I just wanted to say I appreciate what you have been posting here.  I just don't know what to say about it other than it makes me sad.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #80 on: November 18, 2013, 05:40:29 PM »
JimD, It's a long hard row. I very much value your contribution to the " forum ". Brothers in arms, and we take solace where we can.
 I sent some of the posts above to friends in the fishing community. My buddy Pete sent the following reply.
"hello Bruce,
My hat's off to your tenacity for the past decade in bringing the ocean acidification issue to everyone's attention.
However in this case you have stated the problem very clearly but have not suggested a plan of action for fishermen.
Addressing issues with little or no chance of success has never deterred me, so what can we as fishermen do?
Peter h "
 Since we both have 35+ years in fisheries management I have suggested modeling future catch rates for species where we can constrain larvae mortality at specific pH levels. For some fisheries this may mean managing towards zero catch rates. Anger will probably be mixed with a deep sadness for anyone participating in any such meeting.
 Farmers and fishermen live within the confines of nature.
For farmers we know the beauty and hope that every new birth on the farm delivers but we tend to outlive our farm animals so there is sadness too. For fishermen( I can't speak for all of them ) we are surrounded by the vastness of nature. It seems limitless ,although we know better. That the bounty should fail, and every tank of gas slowly suffocate it's vitality is more than a soul can bear. I carry with me a deep sadness and I ask for help to shoulder the load. It is the weight of the world.
 

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2011
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #81 on: November 20, 2013, 06:42:23 PM »
Well put.

"Anger will probably be mixed with a deep sadness"

I think that speaks for many of us as we face the multiple consequences of our ever-worsening predicament.

And now there's this (posted on the feedback thread, but perhaps more relevant here):

Current climate change models greatly underestimate the amount of methane being released by thawing permafrost in the Canadian Arctic, according to Canada's National Institute of Scientific Research (INRS).

Canadian, French and US researchers from the INRS have been studying the methane and greenhouse gas emissions in small thaw ponds, concluding that the emissions could have a significant climate impact.

"We discovered that although the small shallow ponds we studied represent only 44 percent of the water-covered surface in a Bylot Island valley, they generate 83 percent of its methane emissions," said Karita Negandhi, a water sciences doctoral student at the INRS's Environment Research Center.
http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/4972/20131118/ponds-canadian-arctic-release-significant-greenhouse-gasses.ht

(Thanks to COBob at neven's blog for this link.)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #82 on: November 21, 2013, 05:24:06 AM »
Wili, I looked up the Plos one paper about the melt ponds. I will have to try and read it more carefully tomorrow. Interesting that the Canadian ponds have a higher organic carbon load than their Siberian counterparts. The whole paper reminded me how little I know about pond carbon, archea ,methanogens, and methane production.

  http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0078204

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #83 on: December 01, 2013, 02:59:22 AM »
UK waters grow colder -and more acidic

http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2013/11/uk-waters-grow-cooler-and-more-acid/

With this link to a mccip ( marine climate change impacts report card )

http://www.mccip.org.uk/annual-report-card.aspx

There is an acidification summary in this report that has a nice chart ( page 8 ) on all the positive ve+ and negative feedbacks ve- from continued acidification. It says we can expect the ocean to be 30% less effective as a carbon sink by 2100. They give confidence scores as well as sources .

 http://www.mccip.org.uk/media/13199/2013arc_backingpapers_5_ocac.pdf

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2011
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #84 on: December 01, 2013, 02:49:42 PM »
Thanks for those links. We need to remember, of course, that other cycles, besides the carbon cycle, are also getting more and more out of whack: http://forests.org/blog/2013/06/terrestrial-ecosystem-biosphere-collapse.asp

The nitrogen cycle, in particular, is way out of kilter, and that affects the oceans powerfully, particularly in the ever-growing 'dead zones' where over-use of nitrogen-based fertilizer is having its deadliest effects.

Meanwhile, this just in:

...with the loss of sea ice, the Arctic Ocean is becoming more of a carbon sink
...
a somewhat paradoxical effect: A few Arctic regions where waters were warmest were actually less able to store carbon. Instead, these regions—such as the Barents Sea, near Greenland—were a carbon source, emitting carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

http://phys.org/news/2013-12-carbon-arctic.html
« Last Edit: December 04, 2013, 05:52:48 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ccgwebmaster

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1085
  • Civilisation collapse - what are you doing?
    • View Profile
    • CCG Website
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #85 on: December 05, 2013, 09:23:04 PM »
I thought this article hinted at one or two interesting points - a negative feedback of sorts, but also a downside if so.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/01/extreme-science-weather-climate-seas-oceanographer

Extrapolating in ignorance, but if the view is that storms will become worse and more frequent, this article seems to me to hint at an increase in the exchange (and absorption of carbon dioxide due to the imbalance) of gases between ocean and atmosphere (due to the much greater surface area available for said exchange in rough water conditions).

Wouldn't that be expected to help the oceans to continue to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but at the price of speeding up acidification? (assuming storms become more frequent and/or more violent)

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2011
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #86 on: December 06, 2013, 02:02:31 AM »
It may, and in general, a warmer Arctic Ocean is likely to absorb more CO2 than a colder, icier one.

But there have also been areas where the Arctic Ocean has become less of a sink (Barents and...somewhere else; I forget right now). And of course, if the ESAS and Laptev are on an exponential trajectory toward more and more methane release, all bets are off. In fact the phenomena you speak of was found, in the recent Shakhova study, to increase the release of methane in the area to the atmosphere.

There are wheels within wheels within wheels...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ccgwebmaster

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1085
  • Civilisation collapse - what are you doing?
    • View Profile
    • CCG Website
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #87 on: December 06, 2013, 02:05:46 AM »
It may, and in general, a warmer Arctic Ocean is likely to absorb more CO2 than a colder, icier one.

Why? Warmer liquids generally have less capacity to dissolve gas. I could see the removal of ice cover helping carbon dioxide exchange - and postulate the increase in exchange to be the significant aspect of stormier conditions - for as long as the ocean and atmosphere are sufficiently far out of equilibrium at least.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #88 on: December 06, 2013, 04:26:53 AM »
I found this in an abstract from a symposia.I.A. Repina and V.V. Ivanov        From measurements in the Laptev Sea.    " Comparing the distribution of Co2 fluxes with surface temperature and salinity shows that warmer and fresher water(which is probably river plume) acts as a source of Co2 while colder and saltier water near the ice edge is a sink."
  re Shakhova  If storms cause extra methane releases part of the methane will be absorbed in the water column and biologically converted to Co2 so with the above observation I would say that storms might increase the flux of Co2 in the areas close to the coast that are currently sources. At the same time wind would also intensify the sink in leads and near the icepack in early summer or when there's some open water around.

  http://www.amap.no/Conferences/aoa2013/FinalAbstracts.pdf

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2011
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #89 on: December 06, 2013, 09:37:28 PM »
Sorry, ccg. Your are of course, right. I didn't get it quite right. An ice-free (or even relatively ice free) Arctic Ocean will absorb more atmospheric CO2 than a relatively ice covered one, if I understand correctly. But cold water generally can keep gasses dissolved better that warmer water.

Bruce wrote: "re Shakhova  If storms cause extra methane releases"

What she found, iirc, was that storms cause more methane to be released into the atmosphere from the water, exactly because of the foaming that waves produce. But perhaps I mis-interpreted you or her.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #90 on: December 29, 2013, 04:39:35 AM »
The PETM had extinctions of foraminifera. Acidification can be predicted from global emissions projections. Current 500 gt C totals from land change+emissions would need to be pushed to about 2500 gt C to get to the 1000 CO2 ppm atmospheric projected for 2100. BAU. 
 This study shows morphological changes in Foraminifera at 1000 ppm.

   http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0083118

Plants and animals that produce calcium carbonate can be expected to be more sensitive to the effects of acidification than those that don't. Andrew Knoll makes the case for acidification as a kill mechanism in the end Permian extinction.

   http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/01/science/new-studies-of-permian-extinction-shed-light-on-the-great-dying.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Remineralization of organic matter frozen in the trundra, or under shallow seas that rapidly warm will be additive to our carbon emissions from fossil fuel emissions . That is the oceans will acidify faster than current projections if arctic and antarctic methane and Co2  emissions increase substantially.
If anthropogenic Co2 emissions and subsequent heating triggers large carbon releases from sources currently frozen even over a 200-300 year time period the list of extinctions will be very large.

ccgwebmaster

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1085
  • Civilisation collapse - what are you doing?
    • View Profile
    • CCG Website
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #91 on: January 02, 2014, 03:23:03 AM »
What she found, iirc, was that storms cause more methane to be released into the atmosphere from the water, exactly because of the foaming that waves produce. But perhaps I mis-interpreted you or her.

I apologise if I already mentioned it, but I've been pretty much absent for a few weeks and somewhat lost track of everything in the online world - but I read an interesting article mentioning the effects of stormy ocean conditions on gas exchange with the atmosphere, by means of increasing the surface area available for exchange by breaking up the surface of the water.

I'm not sure that's really what Shakhova was thinking of - as the water in question over ESS is shallow enough increased storms could accelerate the mixing of heat down to the seabed (and hence the clathrates) which would be a different effect - but it all underscores just how complex the overall system is.

The complexity of the whole system must be immense. For instance if there is more energy available in storms to agitate the ocean, that will increase the rate of gas exchange (affecting both draw down from the atmosphere and acidification). However, if the ocean also becomes more stratified - that may lessen ability to draw down carbon dioxide as the surface layer becomes more easily saturated with less movement to lower layers.

Which effect is stronger? Which way does even just this one element of the system move as things change?

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2011
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #92 on: January 03, 2014, 11:05:05 AM »
Well put. IIRC, some parts of the Arctic are indeed absorbing more CO2 now that they are open more of the year. But other parts are actually emitting CO2 and methane; so a newly open (some of the year) Arctic isn't providing quite the negative (damping) feedback that some hoped it might.

Even the silver linings of tragic developments turn out to be rather tarnished.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #93 on: January 16, 2014, 04:26:57 PM »
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL059142/abstract
Abstract.
[1] Time series of biogenic sinking particle flux in the western North Pacific subpolar region over two decades (1989 - 2008), revealed that the biogenic CaCO3 (CC) flux has shown a significant decreasing trend of 2.7 % year-1 (annual average, - 0.88 ± 0.13 mg m2 day-1 year-1) along with the decreasing particulate organic carbon (POC) flux of 0.7 % year-1 while the biogenic opal (OP) flux had no long-term trend. Comparing these results with the decreasing rate of satellite-derived surface CC with - 0.7 % year-1, we concluded that three-fourths of the decreasing trend of CC flux was derived from the strengthening of CaCO3 dissolution through seawater column due to the weakening of water ventilation and the rest was from the decline of CaCO3-shelled species, indicating the enhancement of the efficiency in oceanic sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in the sea surface of this region due to the increase of OP/CC ratio.

So although surface waters are absorbing more Co2 the resulting pH drop results in a decrease in the strength of the long term carbon sink at depth. Although diatoms ( and produced biogenic opal )are still apparently O.K. in these waters there are other studies from arctic waters that they too may have trouble due to competition for nutrients as pCo2 increases further. A 2.7% annual decrease in CaCo3 export seems like a number that would bother people but I doubt many people can understand the future ramifications of a failing ocean carbon sink. I have said before that these changes may take 100,000 years to return to pre-industrial rates. Terrestrial carbon sinks can't sequester additional carbon with increasing temperatures so extra Co2 will stay in the atmosphere longer. I do not believe these changes in the ocean carbon sink are incorporated yet into atmospheric Co2 projections.   
« Last Edit: January 16, 2014, 04:34:50 PM by Bruce Steele »

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #94 on: January 26, 2014, 10:25:20 PM »
We do not understand all the feedbacks,again trouble we aren't counting on  and don't understand well enough to quantify.



"An unprecedented rise in tiny phytoplankton could threaten the spread of larger phytoplankton species, vital for curbing global warming."

"Shown to thrive as CO2 levels rise, pico- and nanoplankton — the sea’s smallest plankton — could upset the marine food web and affect key processes involved in counteracting global warming. This is the upshot of a recent publication1 based on research carried out in May 2010 in the Arctic as part of the European Project on Ocean Acidification (EPOCA, 2008–2012), which rallied more than 160 scientists from 32 European institutions."


Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, around 1880, oceans have absorbed approximately one third of man-made CO2 emissions, resulting in a 26% rise in their acidity levels. As CO2 is more soluble at low temperatures, the Arctic Ocean is especially prone to this ongoing trend. To investigate how acidification affects marine ecosystems in situ, an EPOCA team travelled to Kings Bay (west of Norway), to set up nine mesocosms, or giant floating plastic bags holding a range of plankton species in seawater. In seven of the 50 m3 bags, CO2 concentration was increased to reach that expected 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 years from now, while two controls were maintained in natural conditions.

The five-week study notably showed that at high CO2 levels, pico- and nanoplankton at the base of the marine food chain grow faster and absorb nutrients usually left for larger phytoplankton. Yet, the latter are crucial to sustain two vital climate regulation processes. First, large phytoplankton carry carbon from surface waters to the depths for storage, so their decline would cut the ocean’s carbon uptake capacity. Second, they release dimethyl sulfide (DMS) gas, known to favor the formation of clouds that block out solar radiation and reduce the greenhouse effect.

“Acidification is the root cause of the changes observed in the Arctic, and could hinder resistance to climate change,” explains EPOCA coordinator Jean-Pierre Gattuso of the LOV.2 “The best strategy is to limit CO2 emissions, but current trends are not promising.” In the meantime, the impact of acidification could be partially offset by “locally eliminating stress factors such as pollution to boost sea organisms’ resistance to higher acidity,” he concludes.

01. U. Riebesell et al., “Arctic ocean acidification: pelagic ecosystem and biogeochemical responses during a mesocosm study,” Biogeosciences, 2013. 10: 5619-26.
02. Laboratoire d’océanographie de Villefranche (CNRS/ UPMC).
« Last Edit: January 26, 2014, 10:37:00 PM by Bruce Steele »

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #95 on: March 10, 2014, 05:54:05 AM »
The bulk of research on ocean acidification extends now about ten years. It has taken some time to  learn which species are sensitive and of those sensitive species which ones live in areas expected to acidify first. The University of Washington school of fisheries has begun to put together O/A projections with fisheries management models. The first example I know was a masters thesis by Dusanka Poljak( MS 2013 ) related to red king crab. There are now efforts to expand those initial efforts to other crab species.
" Andre Punt"
   " Ocean acidification may profoundly impact the North Pacific crab fishery. The high mortality rates for juvenile red king crab associated with ocean acidification mean that harvests may decrease, with potentially enormous economic consequences. However, those impacts won’t be evident for at least 20 years, so we have time to plan."
 
Other fisheries are also impacted and these changes will challenge sustainable fisheries management.

http://fish.washington.edu/news/newsletter/autwin_2013-14/ocean-acidification.html

There are some species like Pacific Oysters ( introduced as an aquaculture species )that have already seen economic impacts in the Pacific Northwest while there are others like the native Olympic Oyster that respond by producing smaller animals. These smaller oysters are more susceptible to attack by invasive predatory snails. So although acidification doesn't have the same effects on direct mortality it still may render some species  susceptible to secondary effects and increased mortality as a result.
  Although I am a fisherman and projections for fisheries impacts allow us to apply economic values to certain species I think Eco-system and secondary impacts will cut deeply into many species that
initial studies indicate as tolerant. This makes applying economic impacts very difficult.
  I need to also include this work by a young researcher from U of A Fairbanks. I am including it because it challenges the notion that polar waters will see the first impacts. It extends the timeline for Berring Sea undersaturation into the 2100-2150 timeline. The entire shelf waters from California to Canada are expected to be undersaturated most of the year by 2050.

http://gradworks.umi.com/36/07/3607053.html

I am pleased to see the fisheries impacts and modeled economic consequences as a focus. I know this is a difficult subject but having quantifiable economic impacts allows fishermen to apply certain political pressure on legislators that might otherwise ignore this issue. Money talks .   
 
O


« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 06:35:56 AM by Bruce Steele »

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #96 on: March 10, 2014, 06:39:04 AM »

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #97 on: March 15, 2014, 04:12:02 PM »

The California Coast is one of the first places worldwide that will experience surface to bottom aragonite undersaturation. This large scale change in the California Current ecosystem will happen within the next fifty years. The upwelling of nutrients that support our  fisheries also draw high Co2 intermediate waters to the surface along our coast.  The processes that deliver the high Co2 waters , the duration of the undersaturation,  and the timing of the event in relation to when sensitive larval species are in the water column will all need to be incorporated into fisheries management.
Some very important fisheries like oysters have already been affected and other ones like Red King Crab have larva that have been shown to be sensitive in laboratory studies.  Oysters are largely an aquaculture species and there has been progress on aquaculture adapting to the changing water conditions. Wild fisheries will persist or disappear depending upon the sensitivity of species harvested.    
The worlds oceans haven't experienced this degree of pH change in over 30 million years. Fisheries managers are unprepared for the upcoming changes. California fishermen and fisheries managers will witness these changes and what we learn may inform other fishermen worldwide as ocean conditions deteriorate.
 For commercial fisheries or aquaculture Pacific Oyster may be the most sensitive.
Aragonite saturation ( Omega ) is the best measure of determining a chemical threshold for sensitivity but pH is easier to use and it will have to serve as a number , call it a ballpark number, to explain at what level various species begin to have trouble.
Pacific Oyster      7.8 pH
http://scholarsarchive.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1957/31837/HalesBurkeCEOASPacificOysterCrassostrea.pdf
 Red King Crab.   7.5
Tanner Crab.      7.5
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0060959
Market Squid.    7.56
From abstract Kwan, Navarro, and Levin
Olympic oysters  7.7
It wanted to add this paper on the secondary effects of predatory snails on native oysters.

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21594238-acid-seas-mean-smaller-more-vulnerable-oysters-shrinking-problem?fsrc=rss%7Csct

Pink salmon    7.8
Secondary effects of low ph on pteropods ( food supply for pink salmon )
  Other West Coast species
Bay scallop
Red sea urchin
Pinto abalone
Blue mussels
  East coast species
Hard shelled clam , Quahog
Virginia oyster
Atlantic cod
Atlantic squid,  Longfin squid

The response to acidification will require a good understanding of the sensitivity of various species, a good model to predict where to expect changes in ph( and more explicitly saturation state) with depth and seasonally relevant projections.  Sensitive sessile  organisms, larva or eggs that cannot move to avoid low pH conditions will be the first affected, more so at depth. If spawning stages are concurrent with spring upwelling season they will be especially hard hit. So spatially explicit maps including lat/long + depth combined with seasons and species known to be a risk are the starting point.  
 Aqua-cultured species allows that some species may be selectively bred to speed up the process of natural selection but a change in the management mindset that allows these new low pH tolerant  species to be cultured in open water setting will also need encouragement rather than prohibition. Wild species that may be both adapted to acidification and brought into
Aqua-culture type facilities should be studied as possible replacements for other species worldwide that fill similar environmental niches but are unable to adapt. Our waters are naturally acidified with local species potentially adapted to some degree in ways that other species worldwide are not. We need to keep in mind we are going to be the first hit and how we respond may prepare the ground for future responses worldwide (in temperate waters anyhow.)
 I guess I am saying the MPA( marine protected areas...no fishing),let the chips fall where they may,response shouldn't be the only tactic we utilize in response to changing water conditions.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #98 on: March 22, 2014, 05:36:39 PM »
I have shared my knowledge of ocean acidification publicly for several years now. My delivery style is very straight forward ,emotional and dire. This is not how scientists conduct themselves. I am hardened I suppose by a lifetime of risk taking. I have lost dozens of friends at sea. As a commercial diver my odds are about the same as carrying a gun in Iraq.. One in three hundred... For forty years.I have three friends who have been in and out of the mouth of a White Shark and I have looked one in the eye at close range, no cage and had an 18 foot female swim by within 10 feet. I was totally alone on the boat that day got out of the water ,warmed up, and then got back in a few minutes later and finished my day diving. I have suffered hypothermia, atrial tachycardia underwater multiple times, lost air at depth several times, had my hose run over by another boat several times, had an angry two ton elephant seal jump right on top of me in the water and enough experiences with near death to discount any notion I am a coward. Nuts maybe but no coward. So when I get up in front of a group of people and tell them I am angry and sometimes saddened to the point of tears it is emotionally tough on everybody listening. It is hard to ear me out. I am not pulling punches. As they say, I got skin in the game.
 I have also attended training sessions on communicating acidification and climate change. My style is diametrically opposed to what they say I should do. They say people will turn me off but I do not think that is the case. The audience is usually as emotionally drained as I am when I am done. It is very hard to judge peoples response after one of my talks. We all have socially accepted limits to discourse and I think I am stomping on several limits at once.
 I have a talk at an upcoming S. Cal Academy of Science meeting and another at a calif. climate summit conference. Rant is a word I hear thrown around, weak attempts at humor, and an inability of scientist to actually deal with the fear this subject should honestly evoke. I also would say I think people who actually are willing to radically change their lifestyles or carbon footprints are generally not 
 in academia. So I have to deal with how to actually get to a target audience willing to make the tough decisions. I think the fact that scientists are very leery to invoke the emotional levels I am willing to communicate probably also saves me from the anger my style will undoubtable unleash in a
broader audience.
 I am writing this piece because I need a outlet for some pent up nerves after a talk yesterday.
If I am rather harsh on people believe me I am tougher on myself.         

JackTaylor

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 209
    • View Profile
Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #99 on: March 23, 2014, 02:51:32 PM »
Bruce,

On ocean acidification and damage to fishing,
did you see, or am I duplicating, the size of fish caught around Key West, FL over the years.

Big Fish Stories Getting Littler
http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2014/02/05/257046530/big-fish-stories-getting-littler