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Bob Wallace

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #250 on: April 05, 2016, 06:46:48 AM »
Bruce, here's what's happening with fossil fuels and renewables in the US. 



We should expect to see a nice jump during 2016.  Apparently wind is on the way to having a very successful year and solar installations continue to accelerate.

tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #251 on: April 15, 2016, 08:47:50 AM »
James Hansen Condemns Bernie Sanders' Fear-Mongering Against Indian Point Nuclear Plant

http://epillinois.org/news/2016/4/6/james-hansen-condemns-bernie-sanders-fear-mongering-against-indian-point

"Now, Bernie Sanders says he wants to shut down the plant. If that happened, it would be replaced in substantial part by fracked natural gas that would create the equivalent carbon emissions of adding roughly 1.4 million new cars to the road."

This is exactly what happened to Vermont Yankee.

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/new-england-using-more-natural-gas-following-vermont-yankee-closure/?TB_iframe=true&width=921.6&height=921.6

Extreme anti science political ideology from both the political left and political right will continue to successfully slow any meaningful emissions mitigation. 

 





tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #252 on: April 15, 2016, 10:46:07 PM »
With “friends” like Greenpeace, the climate does not need any enemies. 

Canada's Federal Court of Appeal has unanimously dismissed a lawsuit brought by groups led by Greenpeace Canada for the Darlington Nuclear plant refurbishment.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-Court-dismisses-appeal-against-Darlington-refurbishment-1504168.html

At less than 50gms/kWh Ontario has one of the lowest CO2 emissions for electricity generation in the world because nuclear and hydro produces near 90% of their electricity.

http://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html

No wonder James Hansen loves nuclear power.

ghoti

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #253 on: April 22, 2016, 07:40:32 PM »
Bobby Llewellyn's take on Hinkley Point C...Oh deary me.



Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #254 on: April 27, 2016, 03:24:26 AM »
Hanford workers detect contamination at another waste storage tank
Quote
“We are very concerned that there is an anomaly, and that these [tanks] aren’t a good long-term alternative for storing this waste,” she said. A ruling issued by a federal judge last month lays out a long-term plan for Hanford’s cleanup and leaves the door open for requiring new storage tanks if the plan isn’t met.

A Seattle-based environmental group called Hanford Challenge issued a statement today saying that the elevated levels suggest AY-101 is failing.

“The presence of these radioactive materials in the outer shell of the tank, known as the annulus, is a solid indicator that the primary shell of the tank has failed and is leaking high-level nuclear waste into the outer shell,” Mike Geffre, a former Hanford worker, was quoted as saying. “This is the same indicator that tipped off workers that AY-102 had failed.”

Hanford Challenge said AY-101’s problems could have serious implications for the site’s storage facilities.

“Simply put, Hanford is nearly out of double-shell tank space, especially after pumping out AY-102 and emptying some of the shakier single-shell tanks,” said Tom Carpenter, executive director for Hanford Challenge. “There is no other realistic option but to begin building new tanks immediately.”
http://www.geekwire.com/2016/hanford-workers-radiation-contamination-waste-storage-tank/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #255 on: June 05, 2016, 12:21:45 AM »
U.S.:  Watts Bar Unit 2 Produces Electricity for the First Time
https://www.tva.com/Newsroom/Press-Releases/Watts-Bar-Unit-2-Produces-Electricity-for-the-First-Time

TVA’s Watts Bar has the distinction of having the last nuclear plant to come online in the 20th Century and will be the first to come online in the 21st Century.  Watts Bar Unit 1 began operation in 1996. 

Unit 2 was 80% complete when construction on both units was stopped in the 1980s due in part to a projected decrease in power demand.  In 2007, the TVA Board approved completion of Unit 2.  Unit 2 will be the first new nuclear reactor to come online in the USA in nearly two decades and likely the last Generation II reactor.
- Wikipedia

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12Patrick

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #256 on: June 08, 2016, 09:11:47 PM »
Fossil Fuel GHG's don't care what heat it traps including waste heat of nuclear power plants... It does not discriminate...

Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #257 on: June 18, 2016, 04:15:48 PM »
Not quite ready for prime time:  Watts Bar Unit 2 shut itself down automatically shortly after a low-power connection to the grid.

Watts Bar Unit 2 Shut Down Sunday Due To Turbine Control Systems Glitch
https://nuclearstreet.com/nuclear_power_industry_news/b/nuclear_power_news/archive/2016/06/07/watts-bar-unit-2-shut-down-sunday-due-to-turbine-control-systems-glitch-060702

Note that TVA's original testing plans included shutting down and restarting:
Power Ascension Testing
https://www.tva.gov/Newsroom/Watts-Bar-2-Project

And here's an anti-nuclear perspective:
Nuclear fail: New reactor took 43 years to build, shut down after 2 days
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/nuclear-fail-new-reactor-took-43-years-to-build-shut-down-after-2-days-92176
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Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #258 on: June 20, 2016, 10:18:13 PM »
Sweden decides it’s not so easy to give up nuclear power
Quote
Nuclear power has been falling out of favor in Europe ever since the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. Italy has closed all its reactors. Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland are in the midst of retiring their fleets. Even France, which gets 77 percent of its electricity from nuclear, has been discussing a partial phaseout.

Yet for a continent that prides itself on being a leader on global warming, shutting down a major source of reliable, carbon-free electricity isn’t always easy. And Sweden is a great case study here.

Until recently, Sweden's nuclear reactors — which provide 40 percent of the nation's electricity — were on track to close prematurely in the coming years, as government policies favored renewables. But last week, the country switched course. Under a new agreement, Sweden will get rid of a key tax that had been hurting nuclear, allowing existing reactors to keep running for longer. The country’s utilities will also now be permitted to build up to 10 new reactors to replace those scheduled to retire. (Though whether they actually do is an open question.)
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/17/11950440/sweden-nuclear-power
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Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #259 on: June 22, 2016, 04:21:34 AM »
California's Diablo Canyon twin-reactor facility

Last California plant to close as nuclear power struggles
Quote
California's largest utility and environmental groups announced a deal Tuesday to shutter the last nuclear power plant in the state.

The move comes as the operators of the country's aging nuclear facilities confront rising repair bills at a time when sources of clean, safer energy cost less.
...
Environmentalists have pressed the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to close Diablo given its proximity to seismic faults in the earthquake-prone state. One fault runs 650 yards from the plant's twin reactors.
http://bigstory.ap.org/af6e8a82d6384163ab8d32bb655e1c7e
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Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #260 on: July 19, 2016, 10:05:39 PM »
U.S.:  the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA):  nuclear, small modular nuclear reactors (SMR), and rooftop-solar-with-retail-rate paybacks.

TVA Way Ahead Of The Pack With Nuclear And Solar
Quote
Watts Bar 2 is the first new nuclear power plant in the U.S. to become operational in this century and will produce well over 700 billion kWhs of extremely low-carbon electricity over its life, at an actual cost of only 6¢/kWhr.
Quote
TVA understands that the correct energy mix is more than just lower carbon emissions. It’s about grid stability – making sure the power is there whenever it’s needed without costly back-up fossil plants. Wind has larger and more erratic intermittency than solar and is, therefore, more difficult and costly to integrate, usually requiring natural gas plants.

Enter SMRs. SMRs are ideally-suited to help integrate renewables onto the grid without increasing the carbon footprint. While TVA’s SMR siting application is not tied directly to a specific reactor, the leading SMR design is Oregon’s NuScale power module, which was designed to integrate completely with renewable energy....

One of the strengths of SMRs is that they are groupings of smaller reactor modules that run independently, allowing the total power output in one or more modules to be varied in response to renewables intermittency in three ways:

- taking one or more modules offline for extended periods of sustained solar or wind output,

- adjusting reactor power for one or more modules for intermediate periods to compensate for hourly changes in renewables, or

- bypassing the steam turbine in one or more modules for immediate responses to extremely rapid variations in renewables on the seconds to minutes scale.
Quote
But TVA also offers those with rooftop solar panels an opportunity to participate in the Green Power Provider program that offers the current retail rate for all electricity generated, which is an incentive over the wholesale rate of power TVA provides to local power companies throughout the Tennessee Valley. Almost as good a deal as solar in Washington State.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/06/07/tva-way-ahead-of-the-pack-with-nuclear-and-solar/
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12Patrick

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #261 on: July 19, 2016, 10:32:25 PM »
The heat nuclear power creates still gets trapped by fossil fuel GHG's for the next 1000 years.... GHG's do not discriminate what heat gets trapped...

tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #262 on: August 04, 2016, 06:50:33 AM »
James Hansen supports a win for the climate.

The New York State Public Service Commission (PSC) has formally approved a Clean Energy Standard (CES) that explicitly recognises the zero-carbon contribution of nuclear power plants and will help ensure their continued operation as it strives to reach ambitious clean energy goals.

Climate scientist James Hansen, of Columbia University, was among those who endorsed the PSC's decision, describing it as "an important victory" to protect New York's nuclear power plants. "Doing the right thing is sometimes controversial, and that was the case here," he said, adding that Cuomo and the PSC's commission was "an act of courage, putting the common good ahead of public expediency". "California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Ohio and other states around the nation should take notice of what real climate action looks like," he said.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-New-York-approves-Clean-Energy-Standard-0208167.html

12Patrick

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #263 on: August 04, 2016, 10:40:19 PM »
Nuclear energy is to expensive. Green energy such as wind and solar have it beat now...
James Hansen supports a win for the climate.

The New York State Public Service Commission (PSC) has formally approved a Clean Energy Standard (CES) that explicitly recognises the zero-carbon contribution of nuclear power plants and will help ensure their continued operation as it strives to reach ambitious clean energy goals.

Climate scientist James Hansen, of Columbia University, was among those who endorsed the PSC's decision, describing it as "an important victory" to protect New York's nuclear power plants. "Doing the right thing is sometimes controversial, and that was the case here," he said, adding that Cuomo and the PSC's commission was "an act of courage, putting the common good ahead of public expediency". "California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Ohio and other states around the nation should take notice of what real climate action looks like," he said.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-New-York-approves-Clean-Energy-Standard-0208167.html

sidd

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #264 on: August 05, 2016, 01:43:38 AM »
Prof Joe Romm considers subsidies to keep old nukes going.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/08/04/3803499/nuclear-power-bail-out/

tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #265 on: August 05, 2016, 12:27:28 PM »
Nuclear energy is to expensive. Green energy such as wind and solar have it beat now..

The bottom line for James Hansen is reduction in CO2 emissions.

Real world data shows that four economies, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and France have the lowest CO2 emissions for electricity generation (less than 50g/kWh) by using either hydro or nuclear or a combination of both. 

All have emissions at least 10 times less than Germany or Denmark which invested heavily in a DUPLICATE intermittent renewable system while retaining their fossil fuel capacity so that power can be generated when the sun and wind are unavailable.

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/sroc/Tables/t0305.pdf
http://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/chiffres-cles-en

My post shows that Germany has installed 80GW of renewables in just 15 years, yet total CO2 emissions have fallen by just 13 million tonnes to 313 million tonnes annually. 

See page 41  http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2016/Jahresauswertung_2016/Agora_Jahresauswertung_2015_Slides_web_EN.pdf

With subsidy payments for renewables near €23 billion annually this seems a poor investment, if reduction of CO2 emissions is the goal.

http://www.germanenergyblog.de/?tag=eeg-surcharge

It is also interesting to note that the State with the lowest CO2 emissions from electricity generation in North America is Ontario which uses nuclear and hydro and also has CO2 emissions less than 50g/kWh.

http://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html

12Patrick

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #266 on: August 06, 2016, 01:47:38 AM »
Yeah renewables are cheaper now so nukes are not needed anymore...

Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #267 on: August 06, 2016, 08:25:35 PM »
Hinkley Pointless
Britain should cancel its nuclear white elephant and spend the billions on making renewables work
Quote
One of the few certainties is that Hinkley is not the sort of power station that any rich country will want for much longer. Nuclear energy has a future, but big, always-on projects like Hinkley, which would aim to satisfy 7% of Britain’s energy needs, do not fit the bill. As renewables generate a growing share of countries’ power, the demand will be for sources of energy that can cover intermittent shortfalls (for instance, when the wind stops blowing or the sun goes in).
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21703367-britain-should-cancel-its-nuclear-white-elephant-and-spend-billions-making-renewables


Only the cost of nuclear has increased:
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Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #268 on: August 07, 2016, 01:47:54 PM »
Joe Romm on nuclear subsidies.

Nuclear Power Is Losing Money At An Astonishing Rate
Quote
Half of existing nuclear power plants are no longer profitable. The New York Times and others have tried to blame renewable energy for this, but the admittedly astounding price drops of renewables aren’t the primary cause of the industry’s woes — cheap fracked gas is.

The point of blaming renewables, which currently receive significant government subsidies, is apparently to argue that existing nukes deserve some sort of additional subsidy to keep running — beyond the staggering $100+ billion in subsidies the nuclear industry has received over the decades. But a major reason solar and wind energy receive federal subsidies — which are being phased out over the next few years — is because they are emerging technologies whose prices are still rapidly coming down the learning curve, whereas nuclear is an incumbent technology with a negative learning curve.
The renewable red herring aside, existing nukes can make a reasonable case for a modest subsidy on the basis of climate change — though only because they are often replaced by carbon-spewing gas plants. That said, the “$7.6 billion bailout” New York state just decided to give its nuclear plants appears to be way too large....
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/08/04/3803499/nuclear-power-bail-out/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #269 on: August 09, 2016, 09:55:08 PM »
U.S. Electricity Customers Could Pay $2.5 Billion for Nuclear Plants That Never Get Built
Quote
> Only two of 18 plants proposed since 2007 under construction
> At least seven states allow billing before building starts

Utilities including Duke Energy Corp., Dominion Resources Inc. and NextEra Energy Inc. are being allowed by regulators to charge $1.7 billion for reactors that exist only on paper, according to company disclosures and regulatory filings. Duke and Dominion could seek approval to have ratepayers pony up at least another $839 million, the filings show.

The practice comes as power-plant operators are increasingly turning to cheaper natural gas and carbon-free renewables as their fuels of choice. The growth of these alternatives is sparking a backlash from consumers and environmentalists who are challenging the need for more nuclear power in arguments that have spilled into courtrooms, regulatory proceedings and legislative agendas.

“Anything that hasn’t gotten off the ground yet isn’t getting built,” said Greg Gordon, a utility analyst at Evercore ISI, a New York-based investment advisory firm. “There is no economic rationale for it.”

Only two of 18 nuclear projects proposed since 2007 are under construction. Those units, being built by Southern Co. in Georgia and Scana Corp. in South Carolina, are billions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule. In the meantime, the price of natural gas has dropped 38 percent since 2010. It’s now used to generate more than a third of the nation’s power, up from 24 percent six years ago.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-08/customers-could-pay-2-5-billion-for-nukes-that-never-get-built
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12Patrick

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #270 on: August 11, 2016, 01:12:48 AM »
Wow how cost effective...
U.S. Electricity Customers Could Pay $2.5 Billion for Nuclear Plants That Never Get Built
Quote
> Only two of 18 plants proposed since 2007 under construction
> At least seven states allow billing before building starts

Utilities including Duke Energy Corp., Dominion Resources Inc. and NextEra Energy Inc. are being allowed by regulators to charge $1.7 billion for reactors that exist only on paper, according to company disclosures and regulatory filings. Duke and Dominion could seek approval to have ratepayers pony up at least another $839 million, the filings show.

The practice comes as power-plant operators are increasingly turning to cheaper natural gas and carbon-free renewables as their fuels of choice. The growth of these alternatives is sparking a backlash from consumers and environmentalists who are challenging the need for more nuclear power in arguments that have spilled into courtrooms, regulatory proceedings and legislative agendas.

“Anything that hasn’t gotten off the ground yet isn’t getting built,” said Greg Gordon, a utility analyst at Evercore ISI, a New York-based investment advisory firm. “There is no economic rationale for it.”

Only two of 18 nuclear projects proposed since 2007 are under construction. Those units, being built by Southern Co. in Georgia and Scana Corp. in South Carolina, are billions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule. In the meantime, the price of natural gas has dropped 38 percent since 2010. It’s now used to generate more than a third of the nation’s power, up from 24 percent six years ago.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-08/customers-could-pay-2-5-billion-for-nukes-that-never-get-built

mati

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #271 on: August 11, 2016, 07:09:20 PM »
THe american approach to building nuclear reactors is totally broken, and always has been.  The lack of standardizing on a design has led to "one off" reactors with expected cost over-runs.  Maybe the newer SMR designs will fix the problem, but their timeline is still pretty far out there...
and so it goes

Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #272 on: September 13, 2016, 01:05:46 PM »
In a few years, even the parking lot will be outmoded.  ;)

Bellefonte Nuclear Plant in Alabama Is Put Up for Sale
Quote
HOLLYWOOD, Ala. — After spending more than 40 years and $5 billion on an unfinished nuclear power plant in northeastern Alabama, the nation's largest federal utility is preparing to sell the property at a fraction of its cost.

The Tennessee Valley Authority has set a minimum bid of $36.4 million for its Bellefonte Nuclear Plant and the 1,600 surrounding acres of waterfront property on the Tennessee River. The buyer gets two unfinished nuclear reactors, transmission lines, office and warehouse buildings, eight miles of roads, a 1,000-space parking lot and more.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/bellefonte-nuclear-plant-alabama-put-sale-n647296
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JimD

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #273 on: September 16, 2016, 04:21:10 AM »
The UK government has approved the building of a large nuclear power plant...the first in 20 years.  At a
cost of approximately US24 billion.  This is, of course, the projected cost.  Cost overruns on such items are the norm.

The power company will get a guaranteed $122 per megawatt-hour produced for 35 years ...yes 35 years.  This is a good
double the going rate today.  Hmm.  Pork barrel politics going on here???  There is no way this ends well.

http://arstechnica.co.uk/business/2016/09/hinkley-point-c-uk-nuclear-details/
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sidd

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #274 on: September 16, 2016, 07:48:26 AM »
Re: Hinkley nuke

CFO of EDF resigned over it 7 mar 2016
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35741772

Then Brexit happened
Teresa May found out about the clusterfuck, as usual, after she got there
She did a deal with China, they put out 6e9-8e9 UKpound, get to build another nuke in Essex
EDF gets to build the thing, and put out 12e9UK pound or so
They get a price of  0.0925UKpound/kwh for 35 yr which is about 3 times average price today
But it wont be built for a decade, and perilously close to shore
The nuke design can load follow, which is good for renewable balancing

have a feeling that EDF will choke and die and have to be rescued, probly by the Chinese

sidd

mati

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #275 on: September 16, 2016, 03:18:29 PM »
Time for an update on nuclear construction in china:

  • Mainland China has 35 nuclear power reactors in operation, 20 under construction, and more about to start construction.

    Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give a doubling of nuclear capacity to at least 58 GWe by 2020-21, then up to 150 GWe by 2030, and much more by 2050.

    The impetus for increasing nuclear power share in China is increasingly due to air pollution from coal-fired plants.

    China’s policy is to have a closed nuclear fuel cycle.

    China has become largely self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle, but is making full use of western technology while adapting and improving it.

    China’s policy is to ‘go global’ with exporting nuclear technology including heavy components in the supply chain.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx

and so it goes

tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #276 on: October 05, 2016, 01:25:46 AM »
Interesting report from the United Nations on radiation.

http://www.unscear.org/docs/GAreports/2016/A-71-46_e_V1604696.pdf

On page 13 it states:

 "By far the largest collective (radiation) dose to workers per unit
of electricity generated was found in the solar power cycle, followed by the wind
power cycle. The reason for this is that these technologies require large amounts of
rare earth metals, and the mining of low-grade ore exposes workers to natural
radionuclides during mining."

and

"The total collective (radiation) dose per unit of electricity generated in the coal cycle
(i.e., the dose to the global public and all exposed workers combined) was larger
than that found in the nuclear fuel cycle."

Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #277 on: October 21, 2016, 02:52:48 AM »
First new US nuclear reactor in 20 years goes live
Quote
The Tennessee Valley Authority is celebrating an event 43 years in the making: the completion of the Watts Bar Nuclear Plant.
...
The TVA, which today serves seven different southern states, relies on nuclear power to light up approximately 4.5 million homes.

Watts Bar 2, the company's seventh operating reactor, reaffirms its commitment to nukes for at least four more decades, Johnson said Wednesday.

In the end, TVA required more than five years to build the project. The final cost, far exceeding its initial budget, stood at $4.7 billion.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/20/us/tennessee-nuclear-power-plant/index.html
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SteveMDFP

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #278 on: October 21, 2016, 04:40:05 PM »
It looks like Watts Bar 2 has a capacity of 1.2 gigawatts.  Cost of construction $4.7 billion.  I think thats $4 per watt, not including costs going forward of handling fuel and waste.  Seems like a potent argument for renewable alternatives.

My own sense is that nuclear *could* be a good addition to the energy mix if and when a rational waste program is operational and streamlined construction and permitting is routine.  But until Yucca Mountain (or equivalent) is actually in operation, committing to production of unmanageable  waste is just irresponsible.

wili

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #279 on: October 21, 2016, 11:56:09 PM »
Nicely put, Steve.

More here: http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/10/20/last-gasp-dying-industry-nuclear-experts-decry-first-new-us-reactor-20-years

Quote
'Last Gasp of Dying Industry': Nuclear Experts Decry First New US Reactor in 20 Years

Watts Bar's launch is "a symbolic gesture. It's very sad that this is the last gasp of the industry because it looks like such an extraordinarily dumb one"

Quote
At $4.7 billion, the project is "arguably one of the most expensive, most over-budget, oldest reactors to be started in human history..."
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #280 on: October 22, 2016, 06:39:04 AM »

Quote
'Last Gasp of Dying Industry': Nuclear Experts Decry First New US Reactor in 20 Years

Watts Bar's launch is "a symbolic gesture. It's very sad that this is the last gasp of the industry because it looks like such an extraordinarily dumb one"

As the late Professor David McKay said “Humanity really does needs to pay attention to arithmetic and the laws of physics – we need a plan that adds up.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/03/idea-of-renewables-powering-uk-is-an-appalling-delusion-david-mackay

Real world evidence shows that in 20 years Germany DUPLICATED 77GW of fossil fuel generation with 87GW of wind and solar at a cost of 200 billion euros.  In 2015 Germany produced just 19% of power from solar and wind and 55% from fossil fuels because most of the time sun and wind are unavailable giving CO2 emissions of 484g/kWh.

In fact total electricity CO2 emissions dropped from 326 million tonnes to 313 millon tonnes annually in 15 years a drop of just 13 million tonnes.  See page 41 below.

http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2016/Jahresauswertung_2016/Agora_Jahresauswertung_2015_Slides_web_EN.pdf
 
For 2015 divide 313million tonnes on p41 by 647TWh on p13 gives 484gms/kWh.

By comparison France REPLACED nearly all its fossil fuel generation with 63GW nuclear in 20 years and today has CO2 emissions of 44g/kWh or 10 times less than Germany.

http://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/chiffres-cles-en

Nuclear may seem dumb to anti science political ideologists but looks pretty smart to scientists like James Hansen who can crunch numbers and knows that climate change is a serious issue for humanity.

oren

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #281 on: October 22, 2016, 08:54:01 AM »
It looks like Watts Bar 2 has a capacity of 1.2 gigawatts.  Cost of construction $4.7 billion.  I think thats $4 per watt, not including costs going forward of handling fuel and waste.  Seems like a potent argument for renewable alternatives.

To be objective, an installed watt of nuclear is not an installed watt of solar or wind, as nuclear produces a much higher percent of the time, and has a different intermittency pattern. But still, considering the very long planning time and building time, nuclear is a bad idea in an era of shortening time horizons due to growing uncertainties about the future (climate, civilization, prices of alternatives etc.).

Real world evidence shows that in 20 years Germany DUPLICATED 77GW of fossil fuel generation with 87GW of wind and solar at a cost of 200 billion euros.  In 2015 Germany produced just 19% of power from solar and wind and 55% from fossil fuels because most of the time sun and wind are unavailable giving CO2 emissions of 484g/kWh.

In fact total electricity CO2 emissions dropped from 326 million tonnes to 313 millon tonnes annually in 15 years a drop of just 13 million tonnes.  See page 41 below.

For 2015 divide 313million tonnes on p41 by 647TWh on p13 gives 484gms/kWh.

By comparison France REPLACED nearly all its fossil fuel generation with 63GW nuclear in 20 years and today has CO2 emissions of 44g/kWh or 10 times less than Germany.

Nuclear may seem dumb to anti science political ideologists but looks pretty smart to scientists like James Hansen who can crunch numbers and knows that climate change is a serious issue for humanity.

To be objective, 87GW of wind/solar is not comparable to 77GW of nuclear, again due to duty cycle issues. And in any case a solar/wind installation without proper storage can't take over the grid. Therefore real solar/wind cost is higher than usually quoted. On the other hand, prices are dropping steadily while nuclear costs seem to be rising (or more real costs of safety and waste management are exposed and internalized).
But the main thing is that beginning at present, a nuclear makeover of a country could take 30-40 years to be completed, with partial results at 20 years, and be highly dependent on the country maintaining high levels of governance and avoiding serious war and sabotage for the next 100 years. So even with very optimistic assumptions nuclear is only appropriate for a handful of stable developed countries. Germany and France are not your average country.
While solar/wind/storage could be much shorter (15-20 years?), give partial results faster (2-5 years), both planning and maintenance are far less complex, and vulnerability is quite limited. Solar has been successfully deployed (on a small scale) with the poor in Bangladesh and in remote places in Africa.

Both Iraq and Syria were building nuclear reactors at some point (both were attacked by Israel and abandoned). Imaging that they succeeded at building not one reactor for dubious purposes but twenty reactors for electricity generation. Fast forward to the present - both countries have civil wars, are undergoing partial or full collapse and are on the verge of being split apart. I shudder to think of a nuclear grid under such circumstances.

wili

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #282 on: October 22, 2016, 08:29:42 PM »
https://thinkprogress.org/nuclear-power-is-losing-money-at-an-astonishing-rate-e9473d62acc5#.6zsgawmn8

Nuclear Power Is Losing Money At An Astonishing Rate

Quote
Half of existing nuclear power plants are no longer profitable...

... if existing nuclear power plants have become unprofitable, then new nuclear power plants make no economic sense whatsoever. Perhaps no surprise, then, that a Reuters headline blared last month, “New Nuclear Reactor Builds Fall To Zero In First Half Of 2016 — Report.”
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

mati

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #283 on: October 23, 2016, 02:26:49 AM »
so why is china building so many nuclear power plants?
could it be that economically it is not viable in western for profit situations, but in the grand scheme of things it makes sense in the short (100 year) time.

I was always amazed at why it cost so much to build the reactors in the US vs what it cost in France.
and so it goes

Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #284 on: October 23, 2016, 02:48:05 PM »
so why is china building so many nuclear power plants?
could it be that economically it is not viable in western for profit situations, but in the grand scheme of things it makes sense in the short (100 year) time.

I was always amazed at why it cost so much to build the reactors in the US vs what it cost in France.

I wonder about the safety factors and quality of construction incorporated into the big Chinese plant buildout, compared to plants in other countries.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

mati

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #285 on: October 23, 2016, 10:46:34 PM »
so why is china building so many nuclear power plants?
could it be that economically it is not viable in western for profit situations, but in the grand scheme of things it makes sense in the short (100 year) time.

I was always amazed at why it cost so much to build the reactors in the US vs what it cost in France.

I wonder about the safety factors and quality of construction incorporated into the big Chinese plant buildout, compared to plants in other countries.

they are joint designs with Westinghouse... AP1000 ... will be interested in the quality of their implementation, however nothing can compare to the total ineptitude of the russians at chernoybl
and so it goes

oren

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #286 on: October 24, 2016, 07:55:53 AM »
I'm pretty sure the Chinese will be cutting corners in their implementation.

mati

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #287 on: October 25, 2016, 02:33:50 AM »
I'm pretty sure the Chinese will be cutting corners in their implementation.

this is really important.
i hope this is just your opinion and not based on any evidence.
and so it goes

budmantis

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #288 on: October 25, 2016, 06:56:27 AM »
I'm pretty sure the Chinese will be cutting corners in their implementation.

this is really important.
i hope this is just your opinion and not based on any evidence.

That is my hope as well Mati, but based on their track record, they'll have a tendency to follow the path of least resistance.

tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #289 on: January 18, 2017, 09:22:46 AM »

Is the objective of climate change policy the installation of renewables or CO2 emissions reduction?

Germany is seen as the world leader on climate action because it installed 95GW of renewables in just 16 years giving a total of 105GW.

Yet German renewables produce just 30% of their electricity, most is provided by fossil fuels when wind and solar is not available.

CO2 emissions have been reduced by just 20 million tonnes in 16 years to 306 million tonnes, giving a CO2 intensity of 473g/kWh, well short of the climate target of 100g/kWh or less.

https://www.agora-nergiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2017/Jahresauswertung_2016/Agora_Jahresauswertung-2016_WEB.pdf

(In German however from the graphs for 2016 dividing 306 million tonnes of CO2 by 648TWh gives 473g/kWh.)

Annual renewables subsidies are €25 billion giving German domestic electricity prices of €0.30/kWh.

By contrast France installed 63GW of nuclear capacity in just 20 years replacing most of their fossil fuel capacity.

French nuclear produces 75% of their electricity.

French electricity CO2 intensity is just 73g/kWh or 6 times less than Germany.

http://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/chiffres-cles-en

French domestic electricity prices are €0.16/kWh or half those of Germany.

Yet another year of real world evidence continues to show that while renewables enjoy popular political support they do not significantly reduce CO2 emissions.

BenB

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #290 on: January 18, 2017, 12:34:27 PM »
Tom,

You're conflating two separate issues - the expansion of renewables in Germany and the closure of nuclear power stations in Germany. One reduces CO2 emissions, the other increases them. However, they are not related - nuclear power stations are not being closed because renewables are being installed. Nuclear power station closures are the result of German public opinion being strongly against nuclear power and would have happened regardless.

Therefore, without the expansion of renewables, German CO2 emissions would have risen sharply due to nuclear being replaced by gas/coal. It follows that renewables are significantly reducing CO2 emission - and of course there is lots of real-world evidence that renewables reduce emissions by the amount you would expect based on their annual generation.

Of course, had nuclear power stations not been closed, CO2 emissions would be lower than they actually are. But let's not create a false dichotomy where only nuclear power reduces emissions - it's rubbish, and I suspect you know it is. Both nuclear power and renewables can and do achieve significant CO2 reductions.

On the question of subsidies and prices, Germany electricity prices for commercial and industrial customers are kept low, which means that retail customers bear the full burden of the subsidies. However, only citing the electricity price for retail customers doesn't give an accurate picture of the impact of subsidies on average Germany electricity prices. Moreoever, subsidies only run for a limited period (typically 10-20 years), and have been falling sharply for new installations, which means that within a few years the annual subsidy cost will fall, while overall renewable capacity will continue to increase.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 12:53:42 PM by BenB »

Neven

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #291 on: January 18, 2017, 02:17:07 PM »
I'm going to take issue with the prices you quote, Tom. First of all, you can get electricity for 0.24 €/kWh in Germany, and that's Ökostrom. Secondly, one problem with electricity prices in Germany is that the large power companies have happily sucked up all the subsidies and the profits they engendered, which actually should have flowed back to the customers.

Third, prices in France are rising rapidly. Why? Partly because of nuclear. Read this article from last October:

Quote
French 'Shocked' As Power Prices Spike To 8-Year Highs On Nuclear Reactor Probe Shutdown

The scale of forced closures in nuclear power-reliant France - 19 reactors offline and 12 more due to shut - is the biggest since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, after French nuclear safety watchdog ASN warned its sprawling probe into forged quality control reports on reactor parts would turn up more irregularities. These deepening setbacks have sent French power prices soaring to 8 year highs and are expected to spike more into the winter...

As Bloomberg reports, French power prices for next-month delivery, already at the highest in eight years, are set for a record increase in October amid expectations that prolonged maintenance at Electricite de France SA’s nuclear reactors will expose further anomalies after manufacturing problems in components came to light.


Below are two stills from explaining why prices are set to rise even further into the future (55 billion euros for extending the life of nuclear reactors in a safe way, but this number is bound to be much higher because the clean-up of closed reactors is costing huge amounts of money).

But if you speak French, this lad explains it well:

! No longer available

Summary:
- Nuclear used to be cheap, not anymore
- 5% cost augmentation per year for nuclear
- 55 billion euros for 'Grand Carénage' project up to 2025 (see still below), French Court of Audit estimates it will be 100 billion
- Problems with building Gen III reactors (EPR), budget , for instance reactor in Flamanville (still not finished) was projected to cost 3 billion, has already cost 9 billion
- Storage of nuclear waste (in one site to be constructed) was supposed to cost between 13 and 17 billion euros, but estimation is now 35 billion euros
- EDF has reserved 23 billion euros for the dismantling of nuclear power plants, but studies show this will actually cost tens of billions of euros more (they still don't know how to dismantle the core)
- EDF is in bad shape financially, and so these hundreds of billions of euros will have to be paid, either directly by consumers, or indirectly, by the state (tax payers).

I've said it before, Tom, be careful not to rely on German coal lobby propaganda.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

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charles_oil

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #292 on: January 18, 2017, 06:09:38 PM »
to see the French power generation / consumption in real time see:

http://www.rte-france.com/fr/eco2mix/eco2mix-mix-energetique

There are 5 nuclear stations off line at the moment I think - so its a bit tight in the freezing weather across France....  Solar adds a bit - but not much!

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #293 on: January 30, 2017, 07:56:36 AM »
John Kerry who terminated the USA fast breeder reactor program which uses nuclear waste as nuclear fuel has also realised how wrong he was to oppose nuclear reactors and is now telling us all to "go for it".




Unfortunately for the climate it is 33 years too late.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 11:23:01 AM by tombond »

tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #294 on: January 30, 2017, 08:42:38 AM »
Using nuclear to power large cargo ships could save significant CO2 emissions.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/28/now-time-nuclear-cargo-shipping/

No wonder James Hansen loves nuclear power.


Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #295 on: February 01, 2017, 03:23:48 AM »
Toshiba to put a halt to nuclear power plant business ambitions
Quote
Toshiba will halt its nuclear construction ambitions after its Westinghouse unit incurred losses that could reach up to $6 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.
...
Toshiba bought nuclear manufacturing company Westinghouse in 2006 for $5.4 billion. However, delays in the construction of power plant projects in the U.S. have led to high costs for the Japanese company, which was rattled by an accounting scandal in 2015. Toshiba also recently announced plans to sell a part of its memory chip business to cover for costs incurred by the nuclear construction projects.

Experts say that the Japanese conglomerate's decision to leave the nuclear construction business is likely to impact competition in the industry, the WSJ said.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/31/toshiba-to-put-a-halt-to-nuclear-power-plant-business-ambitions.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

tombond

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #296 on: February 05, 2017, 02:08:07 AM »
If you close firm generation capacity nuclear you need to replace it with alternative firm generation capacity like coal, gas, oil or hydro.

Japan is turning to coal power to help it transition the country away from nuclear power.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/01/japan-infuriating-enviros-by-building-45-new-coal-power-plants/#ixzz4XYQMHPMQ

The only casualty will be the climate but for anti nuclear supporters this is a small price to pay.   

The facts are simple, just four large economies Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and France have near-zero-emission electricity, all use hydroelectricity and/or nuclear power.


Sigmetnow

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #297 on: February 14, 2017, 09:13:49 PM »
Toshiba Misses Deadline for Earnings Report, Rattling Investors
The company’s auditor disagrees over nuclear unit writedown
Quote
... The Tokyo-based company has been trying to get its hands around losses in the nuclear business stemming from cost overruns at U.S. reactors and diminishing prospects for its atomic-energy operations. The conglomerate has said it may take a writedown of as much as 700 billion yen ($6.1 billion) and has seen its market value slump by more than $7 billion. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-14/toshiba-drops-on-report-it-will-issue-going-concern-warning
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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #298 on: February 15, 2017, 09:26:51 AM »
And as a result the UK's plans for a nuclear renaissance face another major threat to add to the problems at EDF's Hinkley Point.
Quote
  Unions are urging the government to take back control of its nuclear strategy after Toshiba’s deepening financial crisis cast fresh doubt about its involvement in the planned Moorside power station in Cumbria.

Justin Bowden, GMB’s national secretary for energy, described the situation as a “fiasco” after Japan’s Toshiba, the lead party behind Moorside, revealed a $6.3bn writedown in its US Westinghouse business and confirmed it was scaling back investment in new overseas nuclear projects.

Meanwhile the UK Government remains in nuclear La La Land:

Quote
.   Greg Clark, the business and energy secretary, sought to reassure that the UK project would go ahead. “I have spoken to Toshiba and NuGen today. I welcome the continued commitment of the NuGen consortium to the Moorside project,” he said.   

The chance of replacing the ageing coal fleet with new nuclear is zero and the investment in sensible alternatives such as the Smart grid, local generation and storage grossly sub-optimal. There seems to be little chance that post-Brexit UK will hit its Paris targets

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/14/toshiba-unions-uk-government-nuclear

« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 09:56:38 AM by silkman »

DrTskoul

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Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« Reply #299 on: February 15, 2017, 02:09:57 PM »
That is quite a blow. Nuclear energy should absolutely be part of the solution. If we need to cut FF too fast, there are no other means to large amounts of reliable always on energy without reengineering the electrical grid