The 2014 Melting Season

[Jim Hunt]

The sun has come to the shores of Siberia:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#ESS

[crandles]

During a normal melt season, how much of the ice melts out due to its thickness in the "real" Arctic aside from the shorelines? --> Is it possible to see 3-4 m thick ice melt out completely during the season? What is the confidence interval? If it's in the range 1,5-3,0 m we could make a rough estimate of which areas that will melt out. Ice less than 1 m thickness we will guaranteed see to be gone by september. Your ideas?

Chris Reynolds and I have tried this. We gained the impression that it didn't help with prediction. Movement of ice becomes an issue. I tried assuming the thickest remainders came from the thickest initial ice. IIRC around the 1.8m mark was when it tended to melt out.

.

A slightly different thinning if 1 May? thickness is reduced by 1 meter:

SIPN did analysis of what the models did if thickness was reduced by 1m. I would have expected most to melt out and while it might leave just a patch north of Greenland and CAA, the models used gave quite different patterns of decline and predictability:

http://www.arcus.org/sipn/meetings/workshops/april-2014
Day 1 morning 1 starting approx 57min.

PIOMAS shows a v shape that the 2 other models did not. I am wondering if the recovery in Aug & Sept (after June cliff) is in the nature of the PIOMAS model that other models without the v shape and possibly reality might not show.

[JayW]

This will be my second year watching the arctic melt, so I'm not very credible, but it seems like we might be seeing the effects of all that anomalous warmth from the dead of winter.  My 2 cents on dmi temps, that's a huge area to use an average temperature for, I'm sure it's extremely difficult to get a more nuanced temperature profile from above 80°N, but location and magnitude of anomalies are important amongst such a large area, right?

A comparison of may 31th.  2013 and 2014
Courtesy of uni-bremen  http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/

[Nightvid Cole]

00z ECMWF is looking awfully 2012-esque...

[lanevn]

00z ECMWF is looking awfully 2012-esque...

2012 in forecasts and still 2013 in actual. I begin thinking of Murphy's law. Maybe we need to use instead "Mother of gods" and etc something like "That is sooo casual forecast and I am so happy of it" and this will help at last to see exiting things 

[Frivolousz21]

Absolutely nothing going on is like 2013.

[ktonine]

Last year I assumed the DMI N80 temps indicated more open water.  I believe that DMI N80 temps *have* to go lower if the ice is to melt out.

My reasoning is pretty simple; the melting point of snow and low salinity ice is approximately 0ºC.  The saltwater beneath it is sitting at approximately -2.4ºC.  As more open water is exposed the air temperatures will move *down* towards that of the exposed water.

DMI N80 temps are constrained by that of either the snow/meltwater or the open ocean.  Only when there is enough open water during periods of high insolation can the water warm up enough to raise these temperatures, otherwise, like last year, we see lots of slushy ice in the high arctic.

Someone will have to explain to me [ in very simple terms ] how it can be otherwise.

I realize this may be counterintuitive, but the DMI N80 graphs already show an annual pause in their spring temperature climb - a pause that coincides with the beginning of the melt season.

[crandles]

I agree with you that this seems like the cause of summer temperatures declining.

In very simple terms, how it could be otherwise:

Average temperature is likely to be of differing areas of 3 categories

a) Above low salinity ice/snow held near 0C,
b) Above saline water held near freezing point ~ -1.5C, and
c) Water above freezing point.

(not just 2 categories: a) and b) )

Moving towards a summer with less ice there is likely to be less a) and more b) which reduces the average temperature.

However there is also likely to be more c) which increases the average temperature.

At some point, it could be that the increase in area and temperature of c) outweighs the reduction in average temperature by more b) and less a).

Not saying this will happen, just it is a possibility which I cannot see how to rule out.

 

[werther]

Crandles, hi,
If I understood you well, I suppose it could have only taken a two weeks lasting period of insolation and compaction for the situation last year to produce the difference. Like I posted on the blog.
The Arctic is just 'seconds from newyear'...

[ktonine]

crandles - nothing I can disagree with in your last post.

Most of these processes should be fairly gradual until or unless we get a 'perfect storm' of weather -  which is why the 10 day forecasts, despite their high uncertainties, hold interest for me.  A 2 to 4 week period of high insolation could be a game changer. 

It's possible there is a negative feedback mechanism that open water will also produce more clouds, this would delay the overall process, but unless it reproduces 2013 on a regular basis it can't save the ice.

My main point though is that 'below normal' N80 temps are not necessarily a sign of poor melt conditions. 

[Lord M Vader]

Analog numbers for change in SIE from JAXAs number during July:

2003: -2,30 Mn km2
2004: -2,25 Mn km2
2005: -2,80 Mn km2
2006: -2,25 Mn km2
2007: -3,10 Mn km2
2008: -2,60 Mn km2
2009: -2,90 Mn km2
2010: -2,10 Mn km2
2011: -2,65 Mn km2
2012: -2,85 Mn km2
2013: -2,75 Mn km2

Avg 1980: -2,30 Mn km2
Avg 1990: -2,40 Mn km2
Avg 2000: -2,55 Mn km2

Not the same big difference as is seen in June..

August then?

2003: -1,6 Mn km2
2004: -2,0 Mn km2
2005: -1,4 Mn km2
2006: -1,15 Mn km2
2007: -1,7 Mn km2
2008: -2,15 Mn km2
2009: -1,5 Mn km2
2010: -1,5 Mn km2
2011: -1,9 Mn km2
2012: -2,5 Mn km2
2013: -1,6 Mn km2

Avg 1980: -1,4 Mn km2
Avg 1990: -1,4 mn km2

//LMV

[Frivolousz21]

The GFS brings the insolation pain train after transitioning off a dipole anomaly around June 5th or so to a massive anti-cyclone.

That HP is massive.  Reminds of periods in 2011 where the arctic was almost cloud free wall to wall.

It's already clearing out rapidly.




Big differences compared to 2-3 days ago.  The NA side hasn't been scanned yet today.

Expect the reddish orange to turn red/darker red the next week pretty much everywhere over the Pacific half of the basin.

That open water area should also get larger.  While new open water is about to get going big time off the Alaska coast from the Mackenzie delta region to the Chukchi.

In fact we may have the record earliest NE passage.

Not NW, I think the NW passage isn't opening this year unless a big pattern change comes before the end of June.

[jdallen]

Last year I assumed the DMI N80 temps indicated more open water.  I believe that DMI N80 temps *have* to go lower if the ice is to melt out.

My reasoning is pretty simple; the melting point of snow and low salinity ice is approximately 0ºC.  The saltwater beneath it is sitting at approximately -2.4ºC.  As more open water is exposed the air temperatures will move *down* towards that of the exposed water.

DMI N80 temps are constrained by that of either the snow/meltwater or the open ocean.  Only when there is enough open water during periods of high insolation can the water warm up enough to raise these temperatures, otherwise, like last year, we see lots of slushy ice in the high arctic.

Someone will have to explain to me [ in very simple terms ] how it can be otherwise.

I realize this may be counterintuitive, but the DMI N80 graphs already show an annual pause in their spring temperature climb - a pause that coincides with the beginning of the melt season.

I'm not sure about the pause at the start of the season, but it seems to me that air temp is more a spectator than an actor in what's happening.

The ice quality will also affect how your observation plays out.  Certainly 2+ year old ice will have desalinated significantly, but ice not as old will still contain considerable salt, which will lower the melting point. 

Similarly, the salinity of water *will* cause it to attack pure ice if sufficient heat is available to permit the phase change.  In that case, (such as with large amounts of sunlight hitting leads), you can get heat input into the system to permit significant melt even without the temperature rising much above -2.4C.  The energy required by the phase change paradoxically will keep temperatures close to the -2.4C value even while ice which with a normal MP of 0C is getting chewed up by the water.

The phase change/buffering of the ice is at the root of the pause.

[Neven]

It indeed seems that the Sun is going for a full court press. Only positive thing for the ice I can think of, as mentioned in 2014 ASI update 2: not much ice transport, for that you need pressure gradients. But I'm not sure.

That HP is massive.  Reminds of periods in 2011 where the arctic was almost cloud free wall to wall.

Indeed, as can be seen on the SLP Patterns page for June. But this period from June 7th to 12th in 2012 takes the cake:

[forkyfork]

be wary of model output past day 4/5... performance has tanked recently

[Frivolousz21]

Today's modis update so far continues to show the mass clearing in the arctic.

[Frivolousz21]

the models are bad.  tonights runs are both bad on the Euro and GFS again.  Different solutions not a perfect dipole by any means or even one at all times but constant large ridging over much of the basin.

[Jim Hunt]

The Ice Mass Balance Buoy data still isn't updating, so for the moment I've gone with what I've got.

Here's the latest temperature profile for IMB 2014B, which currently seems to be going around in circles north of Barrow:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201314-imbs/#2014B

[BornFromTheVoid]

Both the GFS and ECM have backed off from the damaging pattern suggested after day 4/5, to a slack and weak high pressure covering much of the Arctic ocean.

Looks like the main areas of melt this week will be Hudson Bay and the Baffin sea, with perhaps a little around Laptev and the ESS, but nothing out of the ordinary I expect.

[Jim Hunt]

The skies are clearer over the Laptev Sea this morning:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#Laptev

[ghoti]

The port of Churchill on Hudson Bay is showing extensive melt ponding.

http://www.omnitrax.com/media-center/portofchurchillcamerafeeds

[Andreas T]

This should probably go into "what the bouys are telling" but here it follows on from Jims post:
 bouy data are now updated
2014B
Current Buoy Data (06/02/2014):
Pos: 73.55 N, 155.40 W
Air Temp: -7.70 C; Air Pres: 1027.00 mb

2013I
Pos: 77.06 N, 168.27 W
Air Temp: -6.63 C; Air Pres: 1028.44 mb

2014E
Pos: 87.47 N, 8.02 E
Air Temp: -5.02 C; Air Pres: 1012.47 mb
air temperatures clearly below freezing, ice temperatures higher but  below melting point
2014E profiles show upper ice which has been changing little for some time starting to warm up. Could be a sign of sunshine? Temperature sensors reading above air temperature.

[jdallen]

the models are bad.  tonights runs are both bad on the Euro and GFS again.  Different solutions not a perfect dipole by any means or even one at all times but constant large ridging over much of the basin.

The unfiltered sunshine is bad enough on its own.

[jdallen]

The Ice Mass Balance Buoy data still isn't updating, so for the moment I've gone with what I've got.

Here's the latest temperature profile for IMB 2014B, which currently seems to be going around in circles north of Barrow:

Absent other forcing, water temp implies a current bottom melt rate of about 0.3CM/day.

[Frivolousz21]

It's wild the ice is as low as it is with the Hudson and Baffin above normal.

[LRC1962]

It's wild the ice is as low as it is with the Hudson and Baffin above normal.

Although in real temps HB may have been a little warmer the the rest of the Arctic, the HB was under a big cold system for almost the entire winter. That system extended well into the USA.
The rest of the the Arctic was anomalously higher then normal. With the influences for Siberia which was really warm and dry, I suspect the ice that developed is unusually weak and therefore any influences there are that encourage 'melt' will be hitting it very hard. As the Live webcam feed from the Port of Churchill shows, at least some of that ice is in serious trouble.

[Lord M Vader]

Interestingly, the models are backing more and more from the idea of a big HP. In fact, latest ECMWF has more cyclonic activity in the end of the forecast period. Let's see if this trend continues.. If so, we may see a much slower melt than thought during June including a somewhat similar repeat of 2013 though not strong as 2013...

Btw, does anyone have an idea why the ice at the shoreline in the ESS have been so persistently compact the last weeks with 100% ice concentration? Should at least have been some melting there and somewhat lower ice concentration as the temps are on the rise.. Is this an error from Bremen? According to HYCOM the ice in this area is only about 1 m or less.

[Frivolousz21]

Exactly.  We also have to remember the crazy flushing the last few months when the ice that replaces the flushed ice is no where near as thick as the FYI that formed before March.

Extent is starting to plummet and will only continue to do so.  It's going to be a free fall.  If we get really bad weather June 15th to July 1st it's going to be nasty.

Expect at least two century drops over the next week.

[Frivolousz21]

Totally disagree about the euro.  It has a nasty dipole anomaly.  Verbatim it would be crippling.

You have to remember there is never a dipole at all times.  Look at the 2007-12 slp means.  Most had 1020HP peaks in the Beaufort area.

We have been at near or above 1030HP for 3 days now.

1030MB over the Beaufort for a few more days then another 1030 over the ESS.

Then it reorganizes into a vicious dipole anomaly.

[Andreas T]

LMV

Btw, does anyone have an idea why the ice at the shoreline in the ESS have been so persistently compact the last weeks with 100% ice concentration?....Is this an error from Bremen?

MODIS images such as this http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014152.aqua.4km show this area clearly in recent days, see for yourself how unbroken the landfast ice is there. Thickness is another matter, maybe it allows it to flex rather than break, maybe it is not as rough as the ice e.g.  north of Greenland which cracked spectacularly last week (less drag from wind blowing over it?). Those islands probably help to keep it in place too.

[Neven]

In the meantime, SIA in Baffin Bay looks like it could go down quickly under the right circumstances:

[idunno]

Also Sprach Zarathustra...

'God was stillborn; though we hope that the Mother of God, now in intensive care, may yet pull  through."

 

I still think that the 6-month long winter conditions will have much more effect that a few days weather; and I cannot much be persuaded that any weather forecast beyond 60 hours or so is accurate to the point of usefulness.

OTOH, I do think that ocean currents are reliable; and that the significant ones affecting the Arctic are not in the Pacific, but in the Atlantic; bathymetrically, the Arctic is essentially the Extreme North Atlantic.

In the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, it would appear that a large amount of colder than  usual surface water is heading North...

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.29.2014.gif

So, while I'm dubious of predictions based on futurological weather forecasts for ten days out, I'll happily predict that ocean currents will exert a dampening influence on the melt over the coming 5 months.

If there's one thing that I dislike more than hypocricy, it's when other people expect me to practice what I preach.

Also, the SSTs in the Carribean over the past 30 days are below average, see here...

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

and as enny fule no, that means that the ice in the Arctic will be above average this year.

http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Jun/10Jun_Stone.pdf

 ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words)
The operational production of skillful long-range forecasts of Arctic sea ice has the potential to be very useful when integrated into the planning of Arctic operations by the U.S. Navy and other organizations. We investigated the potential for predicting October sea ice concentration (SIC) in
the Beaufort Sea at lead times of one to five months. We used SIC data for 1979–2007 to statistically and dynamically analyze atmospheric and oceanic processes associated with variations of SIC in the Beaufort Sea. We also conducted correlation analyses to identify climate system variables for use as predictors of SIC. We developed linear regression models for predicting SIC based on multiple predictors. We tested these models by generating hindcasts of October SIC for 1979–2007 based on several combinations of predictors. We found two key predictors of October SIC in the Beaufort Sea at leads of one to five months—antecedent SIC in the Beaufort Sea and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Caribbean Sea in the preceding May-September period. Both of these predictors showed a consistent and statistically significant relationship with October SIC at all lead times. Both are also dynamically reasonable predictors, given the role of antecedent ice conditions and of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in influencing basin scale SSTs. Our hindcast verification metrics show that a linear regression model based on these two predictors produces skillful forecasts of SIC at leads of one to five months. Based on these results, we issued a forecast on 01 June 2010 for SIC in the Beaufort Sea in October 2010. We also identified and conducted multi-year, linear regression hindcasts using several other predictors (e.g., low level air temperature, low level winds, and upper ocean temperature) that proved useful at various lead times. Our results indicate a significant potential for improving long range forecasts in support of Arctic operations by the U.S. Navy and other organizations.

See especially figures 6 - 10, for some fairly clear proofs that some other factors, e.g. ENSO, AO, NAO, have little discernible relationship to the September minimum.  Eliminate those things which are impossible, and whatever remains, however improbable...

(Apologies to those of you over-familiar with idunno's sad crush on Megan M. Stone; this might possibly not be the first time I have referred to the above paper. At least it is currently timely.)

P.S. She does not, that I noticed, look at meltpond fraction; so the latest research may supercede this. But I am happy to wave a hand towards the colder-than-usual mid-Atlantic SSTs, and to argue that this suggests that less-than-usual quadrizillions of Giga Joules per second are currently heading up the Atlantic from approx Miami to approx Svarlsbard. And this will affect the Arctic heat budget over the coming 4 months.

[Neven]

Idunno, I agree about temps, sea surface as well as air. I noted in the last ASI update that SSTs on the DMI SST map are currently lower than the same time last year. Unfortunately the map hasn't been updated for a couple of days. If some serious red doesn't start to show up in places like Barentsz, this could have consequences for the rest of the melting season.

As for air temps, these should start to go up as of tomorrow.

In the area&extent thread Wipneus pre-announced a daily drop of almost 300K for CT SIA in two days from now. Some more of that, and CAPIE will start to drop fast, which could be a sign of melt ponding. But it's much too early to tell.

[ktonine]

Regarding LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF ARCTIC SEA ICE by Megan M. Stone, 2010: at all lead times the leading predictor is the previous month's SIC.  Note, this paper is only trying to find predictors for October SIC in the Beaufort Sea.  There is no discussion as to how or whether the same predictors have any value for the September minimum and the arctic as a whole.  It should also be noted that the predictor model did poorly in 2006 and 2007 - the last two years for which data was used and  two of the lowest minimum SIE years under study (for the arctic as a whole).

I read this paper once before (unrelated to idunno's crush on MM Stone). It's MM Stone's Master Thesis at the Naval Post-Graduate School.  It was the NPS affiliation that led me to read it, but in the end I decided there really wasn't much applicable to the current arctic regime (post 2004).

[Frivolousz21]

Unless something can deter a -NAO/Pacific ridging the ice is not going to be above normal.

Not that such a thing is even possible now.

[Frivolousz21]

The Hudson and Baffin are chalked full still and we are nose diving. 

They will easily lose 350K the next week maybe more.

200K from everywhere else and that is a -550K week.

+ 200K from the last three days and we are at -750K in 10 days.

We are below 2012 and 2007 and plummeting before 2012 did and we have had no help from the Baffin and Hudson.

There is no sign the arctic basin won't steadily drop ice out of the Russian side/Beaufort/Chukchi. 

Winds blow right off Alaska the next 2 days at least that will be a large area of water opening up. 

[Frivolousz21]

It's just so much easier to lose this crappy ice with even a modestly bad weather regime.

And yeah while melt has to rev up.  This is not modestly bad.  This is bad.  Insolation is breaking out big time.  The flow is bad as well.  Pushing ice out of the Chukchi.

[LRC1962]

@Idunno: I am presuming that she is using the Gulf of Mexico's impact on the temp of the Gulf Stream. if you follow the currents going into the GoM they have been colder then norm up until about a month ago. now they are starting to get warmer then norm which means that by Sept the GoM would probably start getting warmer then norm. Another problem with the GS at this time is that it has been well above normal temps for the last 1/2 year at least and that is because the other current that feeds into the GS is the North Equatorial has been well above norm because European waters from which that originates has been well above norm.
All this is to try and point out that GoM temp taken in isolation of everything else and GS temps depending on GoM waters only really can get you into trouble, because with everything, nothing exists in isolation of everything else.
That also is the problem of predicting ice. State of ice depends on salinity, air temps, water temps, strength and direction of winds, strength and direction of ocean currents, amount of sun, humidity, precipitation, .......
When systems are more or less stable (say pre 1970's) it would be fairly easy to smooth out the noise and be able to predict things with a fairly acceptable degree of certainty. The problem now is that with AGW taking such a strong hold on all systems they are all very unstable and unpredictable and therefore trying to figure out what is going to have a greater or lesser impact in the near and far future is getting nye impossible. All I am pretty certain of, one of these days in the very near future what we are doing to the environment will bite us and bite us hard.

[Frivolousz21]

The gfs torches the Beaufort and brings the pain to the Kara later on.

This is just another example of a bad pattern.  This was way overlooked in 2012.  Will this change sure.
Is it the worst pattern?  No.

Have we seen anything out of the models that is good since?  Exactly. 




It's guaranteed with a -NAO the pattern will be bad more then 50% of the time.  It may not always be off the charts bad but it's predominantly bad. 

[Jim Hunt]

Meanwhile in the Beaufort here's 2014C.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201314-imbs/#2014C

This one's nearer the location of last years buoys, so there's 2012H as well for comparison purposes.

[Frivolousz21]

OMG YES THE EURO HAS A BOMBA.



COME TO ME BOMBA!

[Neven]

Now that 'bomba' looks more like 2013. 

[Frivolousz21]

Now that 'bomba' looks more like 2013. 

Except for the raging -NAO.

Keep an eye on that.

[Frivolousz21]

We had 19 months in a row of -NAO before all three JJA went +NAO last summer.


Right now it looks like June of 2014 will have a negative monthly average.

There is a clear link between a big time -NAO and accelerated sea ice loss.

[Jim Hunt]

A glimpse through the clouds yesterday suggests that the eastern channel of the Mackenzie delta is turning to liquid:

[Frivolousz21]

CT dropped -287K.


There is the plummet. 

[F.Tnioli]

COME TO ME BOMBA!

As per your request, .

Crzy 'nuff? %)

Happy birthday, too. Whenever it is. Enjoy the KGBH.

P.S. Apologies for the offtopic, jentlemen, but i couldn't resist this one... %]_

[icefest]

First Archer and Lego movie, now Adventure Time.

I can't help but read the post in the voice of the Ice King.
 Well done Friv

I really think this year will have an incredible June Cliff.

[BornFromTheVoid]

We could easily fill up this entire thread with dramatic charts from 10 days out that fail to materialise. So perhaps a second thread for looking at conditions beyond 5 or 7 days might be an idea?

[F.Tnioli]

We could easily fill up this entire thread with dramatic charts from 10 days out that fail to materialise. So perhaps a second thread for looking at conditions beyond 5 or 7 days might be an idea?

Possible, but i'd say, right now is not the time. It'll matherialize soon enough and dramatic enough - quite a bunch of people here think so, it seems (including myself). May be it'll be not "this" or "next" chart, but one of very few charts after - anyhows, some time in June, we'll get a real BOMBA, ain't as funny as KGBH one, though.

I mean, it'd be a shame if you'd make a second thread for charts which fail to matherialize only to find out that the very 1st chart which make it there - hits spot on, eh. Right?