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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1000 on: June 05, 2014, 07:29:14 AM »
Cab is protected.

ESS and Laptev get crushed.

Kara gets hit decent too.



I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1001 on: June 05, 2014, 07:34:29 AM »
Damn ICE KING, I wanted the post # 1000!! :P

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1002 on: June 05, 2014, 08:51:23 AM »
The sun has come to the Mackenzie Delta, and it can be seen that the Beaufort Sea is turning brown:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#Beaufort
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1003 on: June 05, 2014, 08:59:57 AM »
CT SIA now stands at 9,80472 millions square kilometers, and it's day 153. This is 2nd-lowest CT SIA for the day 153, the lowest being 2010's 9,79333 millions square kilometers, which is only 11,4k lower than today's value.

Yesterday i said "new record low for a day this saturday +-1 day", and now it seems it's a complete certainty, eh... Last two days, Arctic loses ice area roughly 3 times faster than during same days in 2010 (some ~200k daily now - vs some ~70k daily in 2010).

The last day this year which was record low CT SIA - is day 69, i.e. early March.

To avoid getting any record-low day by this sunday, total loss during next 3 days should not exceed 225,9k. Means, average daily loss for next 3 days should not exceed ~75k. Doesn't look like a very likely thing to happen now...

Days 153 (today), 154, 155 and 156 all have record low CT SIA values being observed during 2010. And as most of us here know, 2010 was hottest year on record in terms of global average surface temperature, and was a last el-nino year on record. Now, we are getting to record low SIA values in June (possibly for a long, long sequence of days), and the 1st since 2010 El-nino is brewing, and the last data about global average surface temperature i happened to see - which is for April 2014, - looks exactly like a piece of possibly record-breaking year, too:



I'm affraid, some significant chances are that 2014 may become the mirror opposite of 2013 in terms of how far most predictions about September minimum were from the fact - but this time, it could be that much lower than expected, instead of that much higher...
« Last Edit: June 05, 2014, 09:15:46 AM by F.Tnioli »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1004 on: June 05, 2014, 09:09:31 AM »
F.Tinoli: don't be afraid!! The ECMWF 00z run is very favorable for retaining the sea ice... More like 2013 now and on.. The warm airmass from the continents have really big trouble to arrive to the Arctic basin.. The AO have been very reluctant to become negative and have only been marginally negative so far this year...

Meanwhile, the GFS is much more favorable for a significant melting the coming week.

This is nor 2013 or 2012. It is 2014 and we are NOT going to see a record melt or close to that but lower than last year. This melt season may be over even before it started and we'll have to wait for 2015 to see if there will be a big melt crah...

//LMV

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1005 on: June 05, 2014, 09:23:23 AM »
Thank you for kind words, sir.

Side note - this "i'm affraid" was just a turn of phraze, more about politeness than anything else. I'm barely trying to observe some things, that's all. It's too late to be "affraid" proper, i think. Folks had to be affraid some 20+ years ago, when i was a kid - back then it was the time to be affraid and to do everything possible, you know. Back then, it had much sense to be affraid. Nowadays, it's about observing, preparing however possible, and having dignity when temperatures steamroll outta fragile confounds of ongoing welsbach seeding.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2014, 09:28:55 AM by F.Tnioli »
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Metamemesis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1006 on: June 05, 2014, 09:28:24 AM »
OSweetMrMath, Crandles, and JayW, many thanks for taking the time to answer my questions and providing the links and prediction comparisons.

From a policy perspective, I am hoping that this and next year's SIE/SIA does match or beat 2012, and that the (super) El Nino continues to increase in magnitude. Whilst the impacts will probably be severe, it would arrive just in time for the 2015 Paris negotiations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21). If the evidence and impacts of climate change are not urgent and overwhelming, then there is little chance of us achieving an effective binding agreement.

One more question: does anyone have any useful links to current methane monitoring over the Arctic? Any data at www.methanetracker.org/ seems to be about 2 months old. Thanks!

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1007 on: June 05, 2014, 09:34:27 AM »
F.Tinoli: don't be afraid!! The ECMWF 00z run is very favorable for retaining the sea ice... More like 2013 now and on.. The warm airmass from the continents have really big trouble to arrive to the Arctic basin.. The AO have been very reluctant to become negative and have only been marginally negative so far this year...

Meanwhile, the GFS is much more favorable for a significant melting the coming week.

This is nor 2013 or 2012. It is 2014 and we are NOT going to see a record melt or close to that but lower than last year. This melt season may be over even before it started and we'll have to wait for 2015 to see if there will be a big melt crah...

//LMV

The sumo match is reaching the end of a round.  The last few points went to heat.  I'm wondering if this continues, if a return to cooler regime will be sufficient to turn things around.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1008 on: June 05, 2014, 09:57:15 AM »
From a policy perspective, I am hoping that this and next year's SIE/SIA does match or beat 2012, and that the (super) El Nino continues to increase in magnitude. Whilst the impacts will probably be severe, it would arrive just in time for the 2015 Paris negotiations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21). If the evidence and impacts of climate change are not urgent and overwhelming, then there is little chance of us achieving an effective binding agreement.
Unfortunately as a Canadian, my PM will make sure that nothing happens. He wants King Oil back on top where it belongs and is firmly in the camp of a few of our favourite whipping boys. Also he has so much control over the government scientist that most seem now either say nothing or agree with whatever he says is the scientific truth. After all Canada has been awarded that special environmental prize every year he has been leader.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1009 on: June 05, 2014, 10:02:01 AM »
...
The sumo match is reaching the end of a round.  The last few points went to heat.  I'm wondering if this continues, if a return to cooler regime will be sufficient to turn things around.
Probably not. Especially if the nino boy will join in. It's now or never if anything can be done about it.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1010 on: June 05, 2014, 10:20:48 AM »
It is the best run of the Euro or any model in a while. 

The -NAO is still much different than 2013.  Leaves me skeptical of a PV formation that close to NA.

But there is also a massive NPAC ridge.

If the GFS is right it's record lows.

The GFS is bone crushing.

Loo at those 2M this far out.  Holy crap.





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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1011 on: June 05, 2014, 10:40:37 AM »
How much ice area there will be by June 15th (cryosphere today numbers), what do you think, Ice King? My guess is some 8.5M - what you think about it?
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1012 on: June 05, 2014, 10:56:46 AM »

Great shot of Russia today.

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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1013 on: June 05, 2014, 11:01:07 AM »
How much ice area there will be by June 15th (cryosphere today numbers), what do you think, Ice King? My guess is some 8.5M - what you think about it?


I would err on the side of running near record lows.

But if the Euro OP is right that changes a lot area wise because a big part of the arctic will stop melting or really slow for those days.

But it still opens up the CA during that time so that is much worse than 2013.

Plus  there will be huge open water in the Laptev region by then.

The area drop recently was melt ponds but area is being carried by actual open water in some basin areas like that huge Russian area.

So basically if the GFS is right it will be at or below record lows guaranteed.

If the Euro is right it could be 300K+ above whatever it would be with the GFS.

Area is so hard to predict in early June since it's weather dependent.

We have a lot of open water and weak ice out there.  So definitely a good change 2014 is in last place or near it in mid June. 

The GFS is literally turning the ESS and Laptev in a big ass melt lake. 

It's really really bad if that happened it would be crazy how bad the ice would look on visible and sunny!
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1014 on: June 05, 2014, 11:02:33 AM »
If u were in the middle of lake laptev on a boat could you even see the ice edges right now in the distance?

Geezus it's getting huge.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

JayW

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1015 on: June 05, 2014, 01:13:00 PM »
CFSv2 seasonal forecast looks interesting. It seems like it wants to spread the ice out with positive anomalies at the fringes, negative anomalies just poleward.  These seasonal forecast are quite fickle and I only use them for entertainment.  Just curious if others had seen it.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1016 on: June 05, 2014, 01:51:56 PM »
The Ice King,

No, if you were stood in a small boat, the horizon would be about 3 miles away. In the Laptev, you'd only see open water.

With all the great pictures we see on here, it's easy to forget the scale of what we're watching.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1017 on: June 05, 2014, 03:39:28 PM »
Yes, for many, it's easy to forget how big things are in the Arctic.

Let me do a school-like exercise to illustrate the boat example.

 - horizon being 3 miles away,
 - the sea surface directly visible from the boat would be 28,3 square miles,
 - which is 73,2 square kilometers,
 - which is 73.200.000 square meters,
 - each of which is getting ~490 W/m^2 of solar radiation incoming right now, 24/7, unless it's cloudy,
 - rudely half of which is absorbed only because it's open water (ice/snow would reflect that much extra),
 - so the whole area is absorbing extra 490*0,5*24*73.200.000/1000 = ~430.000.000 kWh of energy every day, i.e. ~1.550.000.000.000 kJ,
 - and this much of energy is enough to melt 4.625.000 tons of 0C ice into 0C water (it takes 335 kJ/kg), if 100% of that energy would be spent to melt ice,
 - even if only 10% of that energy is spent to melt ice somewhere, it's still 462.500 tons of ice melt (as a result of every sunny calendar day in this rather small area of Arctic, only).

So the fact it's open water instead of ice - will possibly result in more ice lost some place not very far from this "directly visible from a small boat" area (every sunny day) than dozens, or even hundreds, of cargo trains could move around.

This "visible from a boat" area - is something quite similar to a very large coal mine (by area). Now, one of largest US coal mines, which is Black Thunder coal mine, is said to produce "20-25 trains of coal per day", with the average daily coal production of ~214.000 metric tons of coal. It's an open coal mine, and it uses 6 world biggest dragline excavators (among other equipment) to operate.

The scale of processes in Arctic certainly dwarfes even most advanced and large-scale enterprises of human creation - it's a shame so many seemingly responsible people so often forget about it.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2014, 04:09:12 PM by F.Tnioli »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1018 on: June 05, 2014, 05:39:38 PM »
Yes, for many, it's easy to forget how big things are in the Arctic.

Let me do a school-like exercise to illustrate the boat example.

 - horizon being 3 miles away,
 - the sea surface directly visible from the boat would be 28,3 square miles,
 - which is 73,2 square kilometers,
 - which is 73.200.000 square meters,
 - each of which is getting ~490 W/m^2 of solar radiation incoming right now, 24/7, unless it's cloudy,
 - rudely half of which is absorbed only because it's open water (ice/snow would reflect that much extra),
 - so the whole area is absorbing extra 490*0,5*24*73.200.000/1000 = ~430.000.000 kWh of energy every day, i.e. ~1.550.000.000.000 kJ,
 - and this much of energy is enough to melt 4.625.000 tons of 0C ice into 0C water (it takes 335 kJ/kg), if 100% of that energy would be spent to melt ice,
 - even if only 10% of that energy is spent to melt ice somewhere, it's still 462.500 tons of ice melt (as a result of every sunny calendar day in this rather small area of Arctic, only).

So the fact it's open water instead of ice - will possibly result in more ice lost some place not very far from this "directly visible from a small boat" area (every sunny day) than dozens, or even hundreds, of cargo trains could move around.

This "visible from a boat" area - is something quite similar to a very large coal mine (by area). Now, one of largest US coal mines, which is Black Thunder coal mine, is said to produce "20-25 trains of coal per day", with the average daily coal production of ~214.000 metric tons of coal. It's an open coal mine, and it uses 6 world biggest dragline excavators (among other equipment) to operate.

The scale of processes in Arctic certainly dwarfes even most advanced and large-scale enterprises of human creation - it's a shame so many seemingly responsible people so often forget about it.

Good metaphors, F.Tnioli.  I posted a bit on albedo and insolation a while back.  Open water has an albedo of 0.05, vs  0.5-0.6 for ice, and .9 for snow/snow covered ice.  I found it easier to think of the insolation in kjoules/day, as that translated pretty directly into calories which makes the ice melt potential very linear to compute.

Right now on a daily basis, that open water is being hit with enough energy to melt about 0.17M3/day of sea ice.  It won't be applied immediately in the huge leads that have opened up of course, but that power isn't disappearing.  It will remind us of its presence later in the season.

In the pack, the story is a bit different - the heat going into the growing web of cracks in areas of higher extent is far more likely to get sucked up by phase change rather than just heating water.  My thumbnail estimate is each 1% regional increase in open water translates into about 5% regional increase in potential for energy capture.  If one could regionally determine the change in albedo, we'd get an almost linear calculation to estimate the gross melt potential of the additional energy captured.

I'll re-iterate that obviously, a lot of the heat wanders off to do things other than melt ice; once captured though, we still increase the net heat in the system, and move our symmetry point that much further towards oscillations in the system heat exchange that favor of melt.
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Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1019 on: June 05, 2014, 10:35:56 PM »
CFSv2 seasonal forecast looks interesting. It seems like it wants to spread the ice out with positive anomalies at the fringes, negative anomalies just poleward.  These seasonal forecast are quite fickle and I only use them for entertainment.  Just curious if others had seen it.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

Is this the model that Bastardi uses to announce further recovery?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1020 on: June 05, 2014, 11:38:36 PM »
Yes, that's it. Just scroll to the bottom of the linked page and you'll find the graphic he uses under "Anom&Total".

CraigsIsland

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1021 on: June 06, 2014, 05:23:33 AM »
sorry LRC that was not directed at you; just one of those days where I want to see more than just another piece of evidence of our impacts. I just want to see more of us in action.
No offence taken. The reason I mentioned it was that I have seen arguments made in these very forums based on the presumption that because it was happening in the southern hemisphere that it had very minimal effect on the Arctic. I was always one who believed in the butterfly effect (and now can be proven even more over time scale by chaos theory), that a very minimal effort in one spot can eventually create or change the direction of major storms (or influences) in another seemingly 'unrelated' spot. I also am one who believes that those in supreme power (physical, economical, political) rarely do make change until someone(s) with greater power take it from them. Usually at the tremendous cost of the majority.

No doubt those "ripples" from a butterfly effect would be felt.

It remains to be seen when/how climate change affects those who can change "supreme power" as you put it. I'm nervous about that simile but it might be true. Stay alert and prepared I guess.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1022 on: June 06, 2014, 07:28:36 AM »
The 00z GFS is giving off some scary signals in spite of showing a big vortex.

Looks like a vortex but it's a tight squezzed full out Dipole.  Which means the next move will be the SLP moving to the Kara.

You can really see it on the H850 charts.

And the raging NAO bit height rises in the CA/NA/CAB/GIS and SLP rises. 





Cold air is displaced towards the Kara and far Eastern and Northern Nansen Basin.

I'd bet the farm that HP and big heat is about to roll into the CAB.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1023 on: June 06, 2014, 07:31:00 AM »
Oh and not to forget the Laptev/ESS get crushed.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1024 on: June 06, 2014, 08:29:53 AM »
Laptev region is absurd.

We can see fog forming as very warm air from the heating of the day is blowing 60F+ air attm off the land over fast ice and snow.

That is expected to increase to 70F+ over the next few days.  With lows in the 40s and 50s.

The general flow will continue to open up this area of open water.  This area has a lot of real estate.

That has to be close to 100KM wide in spots?


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1025 on: June 06, 2014, 10:08:20 AM »
Today is the day - for a quick and easy "overall" comparison with https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

since the projection changed exactly one year ago:

"On 2013-06-06 the polar projections changed as follows:
The Arctic projection changed from Arctic Polar Stereographic (EPSG:3995, "Greenwich down") to NSIDC Polar Stereographic North (EPSG:3413, "Greenland down")."


As of today, you can compare 2013 and 2014 easily again - not the best tool, but for a quick look, how different 2014 is compared to 2013, I like it very much (being just an interested lurker and no scientist  :P)

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1026 on: June 06, 2014, 02:38:29 PM »
Traditionally speaking that is bad news.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1027 on: June 06, 2014, 02:45:17 PM »
 ;D I've been looking forward to this day for the same reason.

Today is the day - for a quick and easy "overall" comparison with https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

since the projection changed exactly one year ago:

"On 2013-06-06 the polar projections changed as follows:
The Arctic projection changed from Arctic Polar Stereographic (EPSG:3995, "Greenwich down") to NSIDC Polar Stereographic North (EPSG:3413, "Greenland down")."


As of today, you can compare 2013 and 2014 easily again - not the best tool, but for a quick look, how different 2014 is compared to 2013, I like it very much (being just an interested lurker and no scientist  :P)

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1028 on: June 06, 2014, 02:45:54 PM »
the 06z GFS blasts the Laptev and ESS hardcore.  The fast ice is going to melt way early and fast.  The open water will only get bigger.  Pack ice in both seas will get big melt ponds the next few days and concentration will drop hard.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1029 on: June 06, 2014, 07:49:37 PM »
The last few frames of the Hycom thickness gif are pretty interesting.  Get's kind of white along the Russian seashore.



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1030 on: June 06, 2014, 08:39:44 PM »
The sea temp gif is playing for me.  Let's try this...




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1031 on: June 06, 2014, 08:50:41 PM »
Thanks, I was focused on that white area but look the okhotsk sea it is warming very fast on a wide squale...
« Last Edit: June 06, 2014, 08:57:54 PM by Laurent »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1032 on: June 06, 2014, 08:55:18 PM »
Environment Canada shows a large pool of 0C+ water in the Laptev today.  With a 2C reading now as the max reading.

Except a large area of the open water region to have 2C+ sst within 4-5 days with some areas pushing 5-6C.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1033 on: June 06, 2014, 10:34:03 PM »
I've been patiently waiting for WorldView to line up too!

Meanwhile, albeit slightly in arrears, CT area has clocked in at 9.737325 for day 154, behind only 2010 at 9.711198
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1034 on: June 07, 2014, 12:34:01 AM »
Besides another day with a large decrease over the Laptev region ever expanding that unprecedented body of open water.

You can see blue showing up on the fast ice in the Southern Laptev.


[imghttp://i.imgur.com/iLAB7Dl.gif]http://[/img]

This is the visible from today and the day before.  Shows a big increase in melt with the sun and Warm air advection kicking off. 

Models flat roast this region



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1035 on: June 07, 2014, 02:11:17 AM »
You can see blue showing up on the fast ice in the Southern Laptev. This is the visible from today and the day before.

The blue tinge to the Laptev  first showed up a while ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Laptev

Yesterday I think you'll find it was hidden by some clouds:

"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Yuha

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1036 on: June 07, 2014, 05:18:18 AM »
Here's an animation of the key moments in Laptev fast ice melt in 2012.
In the June 13-15 images there are two signs of advanced melt:
  • Expansion of the open water in front of the Lena delta.
  • Blue ice turning into light gray. The appearance of blue signals that the melt has started but the disappearance of blue means that the end is near.
These are the signs to watch this year too.

(Please click to animate.)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1037 on: June 07, 2014, 10:12:58 AM »
A key sign? The Lena now looks like it's bringing liquid to the edge of the Laptev Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#Laptev

For comparison purposes the second image is from June 14th 2013. It was rather cloudy up until then!
« Last Edit: June 07, 2014, 10:19:14 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1038 on: June 07, 2014, 11:16:56 AM »
1 week earlier and still looking similar, meaning 1 crucial extra week of melt, can make a huge difference! Jim, you might post a New comparison, if weather allows (and Your time!) in a week from now just to see what takes Place in only 1 week!? Would be highly intersting :D.
My fancy for ice & glaciers started in 1995:-).

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1039 on: June 07, 2014, 08:33:43 PM »
A comparison of the sea ice consentration this year and last year (6. June) using the Uni Bremen false color maps (the green false color suroundings are removed for estetic purposes).



Reds are negative, blues are positive.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1040 on: June 07, 2014, 08:40:46 PM »
The problem here is that the MODIS images posted by Jim can't differentiate between dark vegetation and dark water, not everything that looks dark is water. In some areas (ice covered i.e. white) water courses can be seen to run through dark areas, which would not be the case if the dark area would be open water, but fits with areas of dark vegetation which looses snow cover before the ice melts on pond and rivers as many here will know from personal experience.

I tried the thermal (I think) Band31 http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=band312.A2014158023500-2014158024000.1km.jpg
to clarify the issue but it doesn't  help much in the most interesting areas. Generally land shows up lighter (warmer) than water, ice and water seem to have very nearly the same temperature.

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1041 on: June 07, 2014, 10:08:08 PM »
A large part of the Arctic has been receiving a lot of Sun in the past couple of days, but at the same time a lack of pressure gradients led to a lack of wind and thus transport. Maybe that's the reason why IJIS hasn't responded (yet) to all the added heat. But it's not like SIE has slowed down either. Just a steady drop.

At the same time air temps have been low all through. I was expecting things to start heating up a couple of days ago already, but it seems to take more time.

All in all the start of the season is over, and based on that I would say: no record, but possibly a second place. However, I base this on the theory that the start is the most important phase. Perhaps the second phase, the June cliff-phase + July and the first week of August, can overcome it.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1042 on: June 07, 2014, 10:40:14 PM »
The problem here is that the MODIS images posted by Jim can't differentiate between dark vegetation and dark water, not everything that looks dark is water.  [snip]
You might try the false-color Lance-Modis images.  From Neven's Graphs page -->  Arctic Mosaic -->  Bands 3-6-7, yields images like this.  Excellent for distinguishing land from ice from water from clouds:

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1043 on: June 07, 2014, 10:41:07 PM »
A large part of the Arctic has been receiving a lot of Sun in the past couple of days, but at the same time a lack of pressure gradients led to a lack of wind and thus transport. Maybe that's the reason why IJIS hasn't responded (yet) to all the added heat. But it's not like SIE has slowed down either. Just a steady drop.

At the same time air temps have been low all through. I was expecting things to start heating up a couple of days ago already, but it seems to take more time.

All in all the start of the season is over, and based on that I would say: no record, but possibly a second place. However, I base this on the theory that the start is the most important phase. Perhaps the second phase, the June cliff-phase + July and the first week of August, can overcome it.

Correct me if i'm wrong but didn't the 2012 minimum likewise have a relatively slow start?

Not that I'm saying this year will follow it, air temperatures are notably lower than in 2012 across the board for the most part.

I guess what I'm really asking is why do you think the start is the most important phase? from what i've seen and the data sets i've checked that melt from 2010 onwards is made or broken by weather during the june/july time period.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1044 on: June 07, 2014, 11:18:30 PM »

Correct me if i'm wrong but didn't the 2012 minimum likewise have a relatively slow start?
Not really. 2012 had a late increase in SIE/SIA at the end of the winter season, which artificially kept the numbers high for a while, but it was definitely less cold than 2013 and this year. See also the archive for May 2012 on the ASIB.

Quote
I guess what I'm really asking is why do you think the start is the most important phase? from what i've seen and the data sets i've checked that melt from 2010 onwards is made or broken by weather during the june/july time period.
I think that because of the last two melting seasons. 2012 had a reasonable start (with a similar winter preceding the current melting season) and a very good first half of June. After that the weather wasn't so spectacular for melting, but extent and area kept dropping very steadily, and then like rocks.

At the end of July I wrote:

Quote
I'm basically going to say the same thing as I did in the last ASI update: Weather patterns haven't been conducive to sea ice decrease, trend lines on graphs should be stalling, but they don't. As I've shown in yesterday's blog post* comparing this year's weather patterns in June and July with previous record years, the decrease should have slowed down significantly like it did in 2010 and 2011, but it didn't. The 2012 SIE trend line shouldn't follow 2007 so closely, but it does. The 2012 SIA trend line shouldn't lead, but it does.
Last year it was the other way round: 2013 had a horrible start (horrible for melting) and when the sunny, warm weather finally showed up it wasn't enough by far to make up for that bad start.

So, that's why I think the start is crucial. You're right that June, July and August can make the record season, but the start can break it. This year's melting season isn't broken by the start, I think, but it's not an ideal start for breaking records either.

* Check this blog post out, it's one of my better pieces/analyses, if I say so myself.  ;D
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1045 on: June 07, 2014, 11:47:53 PM »
BTW, ECMWF shows something of a dipole setting up in the coming five days, with all the HP concentrated over the CAA. So maybe a bit of transport, and maybe an increased chance of the NWP opening up.

There's also a small 'bomba' (bombita? bonbon?) at the end of the forecast,  ;) but to soon to tell what will come of it.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1046 on: June 08, 2014, 12:58:03 AM »


The CAB gets torched.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1047 on: June 08, 2014, 03:15:36 AM »
The Hudson/Baffin are going to toy with statistical projections.

When the arctic basin is running at or below unprecedented levels of open water.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1048 on: June 08, 2014, 03:28:39 AM »
Weather forecasts show a very slow retreat of the Hudson Bay ice.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1049 on: June 08, 2014, 03:43:57 AM »
CT AND NSIDC who use SSMI and SSMIS need to get into the 21st century.

The difference in spatial res for the channels Jaxa and NSIDC use is criminal.



Quote
SSMI 85 GHZ has a spatial sampling of 14KM

SSMIS 91 GHZ has a spatial sampling of 14.5KM.

AMSR2 89 GHZ has a spatial sampling of 4KM

AMSRE 89 GHZ has a spatial sampling of 5KM
« Last Edit: June 08, 2014, 04:06:45 AM by THE ICE KING »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow