The 2014 Melting Season

[Frivolousz21]

All of the ITPs show subsurface warming the last 4-5 days in the Canadian Basin all the way to 77N.  They all show a larger jump on the last update which coincides with yesterday where they all had their warmest day of the Summer so far.

Given the the weather forecast we will probably see the sub-surface directly below the ice warm up substantially and bottom melt start taking off.

Most of these buoys are pretty far from the NA land area so bottom melt is probably already stronger closer to land warmth influence.

EC shows the Beaufort open water area has warmed a lot.  Winds

https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_100.gif

Winds become very unfavorable within 24 hours and turn around blowing Easterly/Parallel to the Alaska shoreline but are more Southerly off shore over NW Canada blowing very warm air into the CAB so expect SSTS to continue to rise and expand as the ice is blown towards the Chukchi but also rocked.

The slow start in the CAB versus some of the biggest loss years is giving off a false sense but I think that is quickly changing.  With ice thickness mostly under 2M over the Western Canadian Basin I think we will see the Beaufort pretty much ice free by August 1st.

The warmer the open water is.  Not only does that heat get the ice.  But any off shore flow over these areas of water will be able to retain more water vapor and potentially bring much more melt to the nearby ice.

[greatdying2]

I have no idea if it is normal but 83 degrees at Inuvik seems quite high
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Inuvik+Canada+CAXX0632

According to the towns website at http://inuvik.ca/living-in-inuvik/community-profile/facts-figures/

Extreme Maximum: +31.7 degrees Celsius (89.06 degrees Fahrenheit)

According to Environment Canada, norms for today are min 9'C, max 20'C (68'F). https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-30_metric_e.html .
Records are also linked from this page.

[JayW]

Lots of uncertainty with Tropical systems, but the remnants of tropical storm Arthur are progged to head toward Greenland.

[jdallen]

I have no idea if it is normal but 83 degrees at Inuvik seems quite high


http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Inuvik+Canada+CAXX0632

Actually there, not so strange. However at Tuktoyaktuk, 24C *Is*.

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-20_metric_e.html

[Frivolousz21]

Will there be any ice left South of 75N along the Pacific side on August 1st?

Current Buoy Data (07/02/2014):

Pos: 75.13 N, 163.84 W

Air Temp: 0.64 C
Air Pres: 1017.84 mb

[Frivolousz21]

Jaxa shows big losses in the Barents, Kara, and Chukchi.

Smaller losses in the Beaufort/Laptev.

Relatively small uptick in the Hudson.  Which is likely to melt out over the next 3-4 day like Vader says with strong winds = big wave action over the remaining very thin ice will just be another -200K+ or so drop from there the next few days.

The Chukchi should see huge losses the next 3 days with very unfavorable winds and temperatures. 

Losses will also pick up in the Beaufort substantially between big warmth and compaction over the next three days.

The Kara gets crushed with warmth and compaction the next few days.

Then the Laptev gets a strong off shore flow going again around day 3 to blow up that area larger.

I don't think the large losses are going to stop anytime soon.

[Csnavywx]

Lots of uncertainty with Tropical systems, but the remnants of tropical storm Arthur are progged to head toward Greenland.

Actually, I'd like to delve into this a bit more.

Arthur has a golden opportunity to quickly intensify into a significant early-season hurricane and then transition into a powerful ET cyclone, carrying some tropical moisture (and thus latent heat) to the Arctic directly (and indirectly via pattern modification). It will certainly have an effect on the pattern, but how and where exactly remains to be seen. As the global models will have a generally poor handle on strength forecasting of a storm like this (and the strength will affect the ultimate track), expect verification scores to tank for a few days as this thing rockets into the mid and high latitudes.

Heat transport towards the Atlantic side of the Arctic via tropical cyclone activity this early in the season is rare.

[Frivolousz21]

If that does become a large and powerful ET and end up sliding SE of GIS towards England/Scandinavia we could potentially end up seeing huge height rises/ridging behind it over GIS. 

[sydb]

I have no idea if it is normal but 83 degrees at Inuvik seems quite high


http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Inuvik+Canada+CAXX0632

Actually there, not so strange. However at Tuktoyaktuk, 24C *Is*.

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-20_metric_e.html

Yes the temperature difference between Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk can be extreme. I flew to Inuvik on July 1 2002 and it was 80F and an almost all night Canada Day celebration under the midnight sun. The next morning I flew to Tuktoyaktuk, and being English I took a rain jacket despite the bright sunshine. I still froze at Tuk and only waded about 6 inches into the Arctic Ocean. The wind was bitter and I regretted not having gloves and a scarf too. I think the two places are only about 80 miles apart. The next day I dressed up for Aklavik and cooked.

[jdallen]

Lots of uncertainty with Tropical systems, but the remnants of tropical storm Arthur are progged to head toward Greenland.

Actually, I'd like to delve into this a bit more.

Arthur has a golden opportunity to quickly intensify into a significant early-season hurricane and then transition into a powerful ET cyclone, carrying some tropical moisture (and thus latent heat) to the Arctic directly (and indirectly via pattern modification). It will certainly have an effect on the pattern, but how and where exactly remains to be seen. As the global models will have a generally poor handle on strength forecasting of a storm like this (and the strength will affect the ultimate track), expect verification scores to tank for a few days as this thing rockets into the mid and high latitudes.

Heat transport towards the Atlantic side of the Arctic via tropical cyclone activity this early in the season is rare.

Yah, I was thinking about this.  This could be A. Thing. for the Arctic.  Primary prompt effect depends on which side of Greenland it slides down.

If Baffin, it clobbers the CAA and possibly the MYI along it.  If the Greenland Sea/Barents - the east side of the CAA and the Kara could get clobbered. 

We shall see.

[Frivolousz21]

Jaxa dropped another -121K.

Now only above 2010. 

Up tick in the Hudson for sure as well.

Conditions don't look to improve at all the next 3-4 days.

[Buddy]

BINGO......and the heat continues.

If 2014 sets a new record low this September......there are going to be a LOT of nervous climate scientists (even more nervous than they already are).

And there is only other thing the oil and gas companies are more worried about than rising temperatures.....and that is if peace were to break out in coming years in order to combat global warming.

Still think we either get CLOSE to record low extent of 2012.....or set a new record low.

Of course.....the one thing I DON'T think is likely.....is if we break the record low extent by a significant margin.  THAT....would shake some people up....(me included).

 

[Lord M Vader]

EURO 00z run initiates a decent dipolar pattern in about a week or so. Our HP may at that time be 1025-1030 hPa... IF the forecast hold we'll see a nice decent transport through Fram strait...

//LMV

[werther]

A detail that is of interest within the fog-low cloud discussion.

This 10 km diameter swirl is visible on MODIS today:



And it was preluded yesterday some 500 km to the East:



The weather phenomena in the Arctic are a source of wonder. At first sight, the vast Arctic realm looks dull and almost infinitely plain. It isn’t, just like the sea ice. On  a smaller scale, there’s so much to see..

I don’t remember these features from former years. They seem to be specific for the present resilient high pressure zone over the Arctic. Since 20 June there’s a very stable tropospheric layering. The high has an anomalous vector wind circulation (about 10 m/s). It shows a temperature gradient going from +/- 0dC (Bering side) to +5 dC (N of Severnaya Zemlya, close to the Pole), even more pronounced on 925Mb. On that height there’s a warm lobe reaching all the way from Siberia. It seems to pick up heat/moisture over the large Laptev polynia.
The mini-cyclone seems to be related to this temp gradient, as it is almost in the middle within the centre of the high pressure. It rises to some 1500 m. The upward draw stops at the 850Mb level.
The fog-low cloud layer reaches, based on that interpretation, not much higher than a few hundred meters.

[werther]

Curious how the warm tongue from Canada in the 925 HP just stops dead when it hits the Beaufort.  SLP suggests the winds should be carrying this air mass into the Arctic.

Michael, the pulses don't show on a months' worth of anomaly. But they were there!

[JayW]

How come DMI temps are so markedly different from the NOAA temps?

I'm not sure what DMI uses as a baseline, but the NOAA image is based on 1961-1990 climatology. I suspect DMI uses a more recent baseline.  It may speak to the ever increasing baseline.

[Frivolousz21]

Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, goodbye
The ice will never love you, the way AGW loves you
'Cause if it did, no no, it wouldn't make you cry
Ice might be chillin' homies but a-my AGW (my warmth, my torch)
So dog-gone willin'
So kiss it (I wanna see you kiss the ice goodbye, wanna see you kiss the snow)
Go on and kiss cold goodbye!

[werther]

ECMWF doesn't like sea ice, Friv.
And it hates North Carolina too, I guess.
See Andrew Arthur (bloody...I hate it if I've ripped open old hurricane trauma's, sorry) tracking NE all week. At last an Atlantic teleconnection?
As you rhyme, the last time frame sets it up <990Mb Svalbard-Frantsa Yosefa and >1025Mb North Beaufort CAB.
That would indeed be terrible!

[Frivolousz21]

8C SSTs reported in the Beaufort.  2-5C in the laptev.

But the most notable is the 7C sst reading North of Banks Island in the SW Canadian Basin.

The weather forecasts suggest these will hold, spread, and increase in the Beaufort region.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_100.gif

[johnm33]

 A little speculation.
For the last 5 days surface winds[ http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-58.49,92.30,512 ] have been pushing ice into the archipelago south of Axel Heiberg this has largely blocked the circumpolar Atlantic water flow, the Pacific waters have built up across Mackenzie bay [where the anomoly has gone olive, 8-10 degC [ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_anomaly_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png ],] and have been squeezing through between the islands and the mainland coast  but have yet to make a breakthrough. Somethings got to give. Flash melt across Beaufort, erosion and lift off of the MYice hard against the CAA from below or a rapid opening of NWP? interesting week ahead.

[Frivolousz21]

NSIDC single day extent dropped about -260K

[Steven]

Are these legit polynyas or artefacts? They don't seem to show up on EOSDIS, and weren't there yesterday.

The "polynyas" inside the red circles originate from the sea ice concentration map for July 1st 2013.  For some reason, they are also shown in the sea ice concentration map for July 1st 2014 (see animation below).  Perhaps something went wrong with the transition from June 30th to July 1st.

[Wipneus]

It is purely an artifact in the images. The raw data does not show any of these polynya.

[Frivolousz21]

Great find.  Its probably an amsr2 sensor issue?

It's still there today

[Frivolousz21]

It is purely an artifact in the images. The raw data does not show any of these polynya.

Does this mean IJIS doesn't count that as open water?

[jdallen]

A little speculation.
For the last 5 days surface winds[ http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-58.49,92.30,512 ] have been pushing ice into the archipelago south of Axel Heiberg this has largely blocked the circumpolar Atlantic water flow, the Pacific waters have built up across Mackenzie bay [where the anomoly has gone olive, 8-10 degC [ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_anomaly_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png ],] and have been squeezing through between the islands and the mainland coast  but have yet to make a breakthrough. Somethings got to give. Flash melt across Beaufort, erosion and lift off of the MYice hard against the CAA from below or a rapid opening of NWP? interesting week ahead.

8C water will melt half a meter of ice a day.

3C water will melt 18CM a day.

You can get as much as 4CM a day from seawater at 0C.

Those numbers are derived from an ice melt modeling study I've posted before, done in the 60's.

That's without the effect of insolation. If that energy comes together with substantial amounts of ice, the result will be spectacular.

[Frivolousz21]

I emailed CT twice since the 24th about their historical data.

 

All of their archived images from 2000 to Oct 4th 2011 are AMSRE images.  They even wrote this on their website:

 

Quote

    Snow and ice data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, NSIDC, U. Bremen

     

     

 

Here is just a sample of their archived images.

 

The 2010 image is AMSRE.  The current image comes from NSIDC.  The data they got from Bremen came from AMSRE channel 89 ghz that came in the 6.25km format.

 

The data from SSMIS comes from the channel 91 ghz in 25km format

 

It's certain the data from 1979-1987 came from NSIDC SSMI channel 85ghz it's pretty much the same as the SSMIS and is in 25k format.  Then they acquired SSMIS data from 1987 to whenever they picked up AMSRE data.

 

Why would they show AMSRE images but still use SSMIS?  They would be the only folks in ice tracking ever to do this practice.

 

Comparing Jaxa amsr2 and amsre data is essentially the same.  But the difference between SSMIS and AMSRE is large.  Hence why NSIDC single day extent is always higher then Jaxa and Jaxa uses a 2 day running average.

 

 I realize the difference seems trivial.  Sure.  But I'd at least like to know more about the process.

 

Also what happened to IJIS area product?

 
I realize once the ice is pretty much off the shoreline things even out but this would effect June the most.  This isn't me whining about area being high versus extent.  I don't care. It has no bearing on my beliefs obviously.

 

But this effect is shown by the simplicity of NSIDC single day and Jaxa converging as the ice melts away from the shorelines and the lower concentration ice vanishes.

 

Secondly area is effected by concentration directly.  Concentration drops area drops it's that simple.

 

How in the hell is 2010 -700K below 2014 when you look at the two images.  Maybe that proves that they always used SSMIS even tho they displayed AMSRE graphics but the AMSR2 graphics and current SSMIS graphics on bremen are pretty similar.








If anyone has any knowledge about CT validation during the period of them using AMSRE graphics please share.

[Xyrus]

Considering 700,000 km^2 is roughly the same size as Texas, there certainly does seem to be a disconnect between the image and the reported area.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A daily drop today of just 65k is required to achieve a mega melt week (>1 million km2 in 7 days) using the NSIDC 5 day mean extent.

Only 2 previous years have achieved this, 2007 and 2013, and both around the same time as now.

[themgt]

I'm going to make the perhaps ridiculous prediction that we're likely to see a dramatic record low volume of ice this year. Everything about that ice pack looks absolutely sickly compared to years past, and the effects of the extremely warm water eating away at it seem to be completely outweighing the relatively unmelty weather.

That ice pack has over two months of melting to go, and the warm water is going to chase the ice in as it melts. The amount of energy being absorbed from that water every day must be absolutely tremendous.

[Lord M Vader]

BFTV: shouldn't be too difficult to get a 65K drop to get that mega melt as a powerful cyclone right now is battering Hudson Bay...

GFS 12z run is interesting by redirecting the warmest airmass to the Russian side of Arctic next week...

//LMV

[Frivolousz21]

The Euro is pretty awful.

The GFS as vader said not awful but not good

The models are going to really struggle until the TC is on it's way NE along NA.

Forky and I talked about the potential for this to end up in a pretty big ridging set up kind of like the Euro OP shows.

[Michael Hauber]

The models seem pretty consistent on introducing some semi-persistent trough/low pressure activity around Laptev/Kara area.  This will push winds and warmth into the Laptev and there is probably enough open water there for some wave action as well. 

Perhaps what has been missing the last few weeks is some low pressure around the edge of the Arctic to get winds blowing into the Arctic instead of lazily circling a big high pressure in the middle.

Will the current rapid rates of extent drop in IJIS climb even further?  Although Hudson/Baffin are pretty much near their ends now.

[Bruce]

Smoke from fires now drifting straight out over the Beaufort. Can't possibly help matters. I suppose that also means that warm air is blowing from the land out over the ice.

[JayW]

Arthur is nearly a hurricane

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

...ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/022054.shtml?
Looks like he may make a trip to Iceland
 GEFS cyclone tracks http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

[johnm33]

 For anyone interested DMI baseline is 1985- 2001 http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php  ,data method. But whilst there I set anomolies, arctic 12days loop play and the Khatanga gulf is a smoking gun for the anomolies and open water in the Laptev.

[jdallen]

2013 was an indifferent hurricane season, with little activity before September.

 2012 on the other hand was very active... But no storms a all in July(!).  Things broke loose dramatically early in August.

[JayW]

2013 was an indifferent hurricane season, with little activity before September.

 2012 on the other hand was very active... But no storms a all in July(!).  Things broke loose dramatically early in August.

I think Humberto topped out around 85mph last season (2013), that was the best the Atlantic could do. Pitiful.
The March 25-27 storm this past winter went to ~955mb, with category 2 strength winds, that was an amazing storm, and just missed me to my chagrin.

This winter storm featured a tropopause fold, from what I understand, this is a possibility with Arthur.  The track looks eerily similar to Arthur's progged track, as I sit here reminiscing of storms past.
Screen grab of it, sorry for being OT.

[jdallen]

Not OT at all. It may have a very direct effect on melt in another few days.

[greatdying2]

NSDIC has a new page: http://nsidc.org/soac .

[ktonine]

Wayne Davidson has a nice series of thermistor string graphs for buoy 2014b from the past month showing the thermodynamics of its disintegration.

Visit his Eh2r blog to view them

[Lord M Vader]

Latest GFS 00z run out now. Friv, I think you will like this... The run shows a similar evolution toward a dipole pattern to the end of the period... Not good for the ice.. Let's see what EURO 00z run says in about 2 hours...

//LMV

[werther]

Here's the 'mini-cyclone / golfball again this morning:



This is getting into a more than just nice pic (seattlerocks yesterday on the pic-thread)! It is a very persistent little artist, this one. Originating from 1 July, somewhere in the CAB North of Alaska, it has travelled; 300 km in the last 24 hours. It is now over the Laptev Bite. It's vorticity has picked up again and it is now considerably larger. Yesterday, the compact diameter was 17 km, now, the nice, almost stellar formation does 50 km.
Does it really pick up strength from the open Laptev Bite?

[werther]

Latest GFS 00z run out now. Friv, I think you will like this... The run shows a similar evolution toward a dipole pattern to the end of the period... Not good for the ice.. Let's see what EURO 00z run says in about 2 hours...

//LMV

Not just GFS... after a switch to less severe dipole in yesterday's modelling, the ECMWF model has recalculated again into severe dipole within 10 days. I know, after 5 days the modelling becomes increasingly unreliable. But there's at least strong tendency towards -AO, Greenland ridge and classic dipole.

[Frivolousz21]

Lol wow guys.  The GFS is bad the euro  is horrible.  Horrible !!

[Neven]

Lol wow guys.  The GFS is bad the euro  is horrible.  Horrible !!

Indeed, the ECMWF forecast is the worst (for the ice) I have seen this year so far. If this comes about, 2014 is bound to go very low for the time of year, if not lowest.

[Jim Hunt]

Wayne Davidson has a nice series of thermistor string graphs for buoy 2014b from the past month showing the thermodynamics of its disintegration.

See also my own series of thermistor string graphs. Actually I disagree with Wayne's interpretation. It seems to me that with 2014B he's not actually revealing the temperature of the floe itself. 2014C is now showing much the same behaviour, with meltwater soaking many of the thermistors. The "disintegration" applies only to the ice immediately adjacent to the buoy:

 

[seattlerocks]

Here's the 'mini-cyclone / golfball again this morning:

This is getting into a more than just nice pic (seattlerocks yesterday on the pic-thread)! It is a very persistent little artist, this one. Originating from 1 July, somewhere in the CAB North of Alaska, it has travelled; 300 km in the last 24 hours. It is now over the Laptev Bite. It's vorticity has picked up again and it is now considerably larger. Yesterday, the compact diameter was 17 km, now, the nice, almost stellar formation does 50 km.
Does it really pick up strength from the open Laptev Bite?

Yeah, so I really wonder, you guys know this is a normal phenomenon? does it have a name? It is not a storm, hurricane, polar low, daredevil, tornado, obviously not polar vortex, ( or PAC or GAC ). So what the hell is it?

[werther]

"So what the hell is it?"

So far, I can only come up with a 'baroclinic instability'....
It doesn't appear important. Not like FI GAC2012. But it is remarkable. I can't remember having noticed such a feature in four years' worth of MODIS lurking.
The more I get into this, the more I sense that its genesis stands for some weird tropospheric conditions that might be explanatory for the course of the melt process until now.

The small storm isn't completely harmless. I noticed it had some fragmenting effects when it entered the Laptev Bite.

[ktonine]

See also my own series of thermistor string graphs. Actually I disagree with Wayne's interpretation. It seems to me that with 2014B he's not actually revealing the temperature of the floe itself. 2014C is now showing much the same behaviour, with meltwater soaking many of the thermistors. The "disintegration" applies only to the ice immediately adjacent to the buoy:

Jim, if I understood Wayne correctly he's pointing out that (as per your image for 2014C) that we see the ice progressively getting warmer.  Over time the ice becomes isothermal at 0C.  During this same time we also see a slight increase in the sea water temperature. 

The change is that prior to the ice reaching its isothermal stage the ice is the heat sink, once that happens the sea becomes the heat sink and the ice begins disintegration.