Thought I'd put in the link to Tedesco's November 30, 2012 paper in Greenland ice melt impacts during 2012
The Cryosphere Discuss., 6, 4939–4976, 2012
www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/6/4939/2012/doi:10.5194/tcd-6-4939-2012
Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland
records from spaceborne observations,
a regional climate model and reanalysis
dataM. Tedesco1, X. Fettweis2, T. Mote3, J. Wahr4, P. Alexander1,5, J. Box6, and
B. Wouters4,7
1The City College of New York, The City University of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
2University of Liege, Liege, Belgium
3University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
4Department of Physics and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
5The Graduate Center of the City University of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
6The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
7School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Received: 24 October 2012 – Accepted: 15 November 2012 – Published: 30 November 2012
Correspondence to: M. Tedesco (mtedesco@sci.ccny.cuny.edu)
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
AbstractA combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM)
outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple
records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite
era 5 (extending up to 97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to two months
longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature
was 3 standard deviations () above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass
balance was 3 below the mean and runoff was 3.9 above the mean over the same
period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records,
10 as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively,
−627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2 below the 2003–2012 mean.
We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with
anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g.
albedo) and pre-conditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as ma15
jor driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Because of self-amplifying positive feedbacks,
less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should large-scale
atmospheric circulation and induced surface characteristics observed over the past
decade persist. Since the general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) do not simulate the abnormal anticyclonic circulation
20 resulting from extremely negative NAO conditions as observed over recent years, contribution
to sea level rise projected under different warming scenarios will be underestimated
should the trend in NAO summer values continue.