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crandles

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #100 on: June 19, 2014, 12:33:39 AM »
2012 reached 50% but I am not sure if this is on the same basis due to a change of method - the graph for 2012 may not have been replotted.





Even if it is the same basis 40% is approaching similar level to 2012 and that is bad enough.

VaughnAn

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #101 on: June 19, 2014, 06:43:39 AM »
There are a couple things about falling meltwater not mentioned.

1. for every 1000 meters water falls it warms about 2.38˚C.  So if 1 gigaton of water at 0˚C falls into the ice it should melt .03 gigaton of of ice for every 1000 meters it falls considering the energy needed to convert ice to water is about 80 cal/gram and the energy to increase water 1˚C is 1 cal/gram provided that the ice temperature is 0˚C exactly.

2.  This is not the real story, yet, though if the ice temperature is below 0˚C.  However, let us assume the water starts at the surface at 0˚C and falls for 1000 meters and then freezes because the ice there is below 0˚C.  The water cools from 2.38˚C(assuming it hasn't lost heat to the ice on the way down) to 0˚C and freezes releasing the 2.38 cal/gram of heat gained by the fall and the 80 cal/gram from freezing.  This is enough heat to increase the temperature of 82.38 gigaton of ice by 1˚C. 

3.  It looks like as the surface melts the temperatures inside the ice sheet that are below freezing now will increase rather rapidly. Soon the temperatures will be warm enough that liquid water will be present in considerable amounts of ice that are at 0˚C and the increased lubrication will cause rapid disintegration of the ice.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #102 on: June 19, 2014, 09:24:57 AM »
I'm not aware of any change in method used for the NSIDC melt area, they do re calibrate each winter though.  This is due to increased moisture within the snow pack carried over from previous years which would otherwise count as melt (as happened in early 2013, and discussed here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,52.0.html). 

See http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2013/03/an-early-spring-calibration-for-melt-detection/ for details on the recalibration. Another sign that the sheet is out of balance I suppose, the winters are no longer resetting the snow field to the same state each year.

DMI meanwhile shows less melt and some precipitation across the southern peninsula for 18/6. This has taken the SMB back to a daily loss of 2Gt, still above average but well within the 2sd range.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #103 on: June 19, 2014, 09:51:22 AM »
Robert scribbler has a blog up on the 40% spike in melt area.

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/06/18/2012-record-challenged-as-40-of-the-greenland-ice-sheet-surface-melts-on-june-17th/

Quote
2012 Record Challenged as 40% of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melts on June 17th

Yesterday, 40% of the surface of Greenland melted.

It was still mid-June, yet a month before melt values typically peak. But a persistent high pressure system over Greenland, a rapidly melting Baffin Bay and warm winds riding up the west coast were enough to spur a surface melting event that shoved melt coverage firmly above the two standard deviation threshold and into record range.

F.Tnioli

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #104 on: June 19, 2014, 10:13:24 AM »
http://www.paranormics.com/time-traveler-who-spent-2-years-in-the-future-2749-tells-all/ - of course, it is likely just a fancy fiction (afaik, time travel into the future should be theoretically possible and is already being done in experiments on a micro scale, but time travel to the past should not be possible at all), but "future" described (for the rest of this century) may actually be what awaits us, ironically. Can ~70% of greenland ice sheet sliding into the ocean cause this "The water level had risen and Florida was reduced to the panhandle only. Atlanta, GA was only 3 miles from the ocean.The Mississippi became an inland waterway. The Great Lakes became one large lake." thing, i wonder? Or would it require much "help" from Antarctic to flood that much?
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Xyrus

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #105 on: June 19, 2014, 07:00:34 PM »
http://www.paranormics.com/time-traveler-who-spent-2-years-in-the-future-2749-tells-all/ - of course, it is likely just a fancy fiction (afaik, time travel into the future should be theoretically possible and is already being done in experiments on a micro scale, but time travel to the past should not be possible at all), but "future" described (for the rest of this century) may actually be what awaits us, ironically. Can ~70% of greenland ice sheet sliding into the ocean cause this "The water level had risen and Florida was reduced to the panhandle only. Atlanta, GA was only 3 miles from the ocean.The Mississippi became an inland waterway. The Great Lakes became one large lake." thing, i wonder? Or would it require much "help" from Antarctic to flood that much?

Time travel, in any form, is not possible with our current technology (we're nowhere close). Nor are there any inherent restrictions known for time travel other than requiring impossible amounts of energy and penetrating infinite potential wells.

But more on topic, the Greenland ice sheet can't "slide into the sea". The geography of Greenland is basically a big bowl. Possibly in the distant future when there isn't much ice left the isostatic rebound might flatten the bowl a bit.

There are a few sites which allow you to play with global ocean levels to see the impact of different scenarios like here: http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/

If Greenland totally melted out it is estimated that sea level would rise by around 6 meters, which is nowhere near enough to cause the scenarios you described. You'd need Antarctica to melt significantly as well. You'd need about 40-50m of sea level rise to cause some of what you describe, or you need Greenland to totally melt out and about 75% of Antarctica to melt as well.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #106 on: June 19, 2014, 07:14:33 PM »
NSIDC melt has fallen back also for 18/6 to just over 30% melt area, melt is no longer being seen across the saddle.

LRC1962

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #107 on: June 20, 2014, 12:09:44 AM »
F.Tnioli

3. You said "This behavior is only possible, when you have liquid water under the glacier, that is not possible now under the ice inside Greenland.". Sicne i suspect it's the opposite - not just possible, but already existant liquid water under the "inside" parts of Greenland ice sheet, - i took some time to search for any possible info on this. I found such info: http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/lakes-discovered-beneath-greenland-ice-sheet-0 . Note this is exactly the kind of lakes i am talking about: fed by surface melt waters which go all the way down to the bedrock. It seems to me my physics is not as bad as you suspected it is, eh? =)
Actually you missed  very big one (hit on this looking for something else) Enormous Aquifer Discovered Under Greenland Ice Sheet
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TenneyNaumer

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #108 on: June 20, 2014, 04:51:55 AM »
Some recent papers:

"Extensive liquid meltwater storage in firn within the Greenland ice sheet"

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n2/full/ngeo2043.html

http://unews.utah.edu/news_releases/greenland-ice-stores-liquid-water-year-round/

GRL: "Observations of Pronounced Greenland Ice Sheet Firn Warming and Implications for Runoff Production"

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059806/abstract

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #109 on: June 20, 2014, 11:03:06 AM »
DMI shows the precipitation moving away from the south on 19/6, leading to a slight uptick in SMB loss. Loss is still around 2Gt/day though.

Frivolousz21

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #110 on: June 20, 2014, 01:41:38 PM »
Models show warmth over GIS.  Essentially the freeze line will reach 1500-2000M per day air temp wise everyday thru the rest of June almost everywhere over GIS. 

Some days it will reach up to 2500M+ in spots.  But the 1500M areas especially over the W side and ENE side are really solid for huge albedo drops and melt loss.
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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #111 on: June 21, 2014, 10:00:58 AM »
NSIDC fell back to 30% melt area on 19/6, just on the edge of the 2sd range.

DMI show a similar pattern to yesterday, with less precipitation though, and a bit more melt. Daily SMB loss increased to around 3Gt.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #112 on: June 21, 2014, 06:32:48 PM »
No NSIDC update yet for 20/6, but I've just seen they've posted a new blog.......

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2014/06/a-warm-southern-welcome-to-spring/

Quote
A warm southern welcome to spring

Surface melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet in May 2014 proceeded quickly, despite cool conditions over wide areas. We continue to explore recent evidence of lower snow reflectivity, and note its likely impact on snow melt during Greenland’s summer season.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #113 on: June 22, 2014, 09:43:37 AM »
NSIDC melt area for 20/6 decreased to around 25%, still above average.

DMI shows a decrease also, with the daily SMB falling back to 2Gt. This marks a return to the seasonal average, after a week well above it.

werther

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #114 on: June 22, 2014, 11:45:10 AM »
Melt rivers are running again on East Greenland’s ice sheet:



This is a scene we haven’t seen much since July ’12. Yesterday, 100 km South from Sermeq Kujalleq’s calving front.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #115 on: June 22, 2014, 12:09:28 PM »
Looks like stronger melt has a good chance of reasserting itself this coming week starting on this coming Tuesday....

Going to be a LOT of melt in Greenland and Arctic this coming week.....
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Frivolousz21

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #116 on: June 22, 2014, 02:13:09 PM »
Looks like stronger melt has a good chance of reasserting itself this coming week starting on this coming Tuesday....

Going to be a LOT of melt in Greenland and Arctic this coming week.....

Yes it will be.  Surface freeze level reaching 1700-2200M over a size-able area.

Probably keep us at least around 30% melt area.






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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #117 on: June 22, 2014, 03:54:13 PM »
Just found this short Jason Box piece on Greenland's Lakes (Melt Ponds)



Link to Peter Sinclairs placeholder article on this piece :http://climatecrocks.com/2014/06/20/jason-box-on-greenlands-lakes/

LRC1962

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #118 on: June 22, 2014, 10:39:51 PM »
For those who have trouble reading weather maps such as me.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=greenland
See Cape Harald Moltke and Nord weather outlook for the next few days. These are almost at the northeastern most point of Greenland. Temps are hovering around 0C. If the conditions are right you can melt then also. The rest does not look good for ice unless far inland or up in the mountains.
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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #119 on: June 23, 2014, 09:39:53 AM »
NSIDC melt area continued down to just over 20% of the ice sheet on 21/6.

DMI shows melt increasing again, but this is offset by precipitation in the south and north west, leaving the net SMB loss at 2Gt (22/6).

F.Tnioli

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #120 on: June 23, 2014, 12:25:19 PM »
F.Tnioli

3. You said "This behavior is only possible, when you have liquid water under the glacier, that is not possible now under the ice inside Greenland.". Sicne i suspect it's the opposite - not just possible, but already existant liquid water under the "inside" parts of Greenland ice sheet, - i took some time to search for any possible info on this. I found such info: http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/lakes-discovered-beneath-greenland-ice-sheet-0 . Note this is exactly the kind of lakes i am talking about: fed by surface melt waters which go all the way down to the bedrock. It seems to me my physics is not as bad as you suspected it is, eh? =)
Actually you missed  very big one (hit on this looking for something else) Enormous Aquifer Discovered Under Greenland Ice Sheet
Why, i've been reading about big one discovered, yes, but iirc, much (most? all?) of liquid water from that one - is not forming any big bodies of liquid water, but is instead "embedded" within the ice, between ice crystals. Not exactly a "lake", which was the reason i didn't mention it. PLus, the source is different - what bothers me is melt water from above, not ground water from below. Why? Because given enough time, the former will be pretty much everywhere in Greenland, while the latter won't be.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #121 on: June 23, 2014, 12:47:05 PM »
http://www.paranormics.com/time-traveler-who-spent-2-years-in-the-future-2749-tells-all/ - of course, it is likely just a fancy fiction (afaik, time travel into the future should be theoretically possible and is already being done in experiments on a micro scale, but time travel to the past should not be possible at all), but "future" described (for the rest of this century) may actually be what awaits us, ironically. Can ~70% of greenland ice sheet sliding into the ocean cause this "The water level had risen and Florida was reduced to the panhandle only. Atlanta, GA was only 3 miles from the ocean.The Mississippi became an inland waterway. The Great Lakes became one large lake." thing, i wonder? Or would it require much "help" from Antarctic to flood that much?

Time travel, in any form, is not possible with our current technology (we're nowhere close). Nor are there any inherent restrictions known for time travel other than requiring impossible amounts of energy and penetrating infinite potential wells.

But more on topic, the Greenland ice sheet can't "slide into the sea". The geography of Greenland is basically a big bowl. Possibly in the distant future when there isn't much ice left the isostatic rebound might flatten the bowl a bit.

There are a few sites which allow you to play with global ocean levels to see the impact of different scenarios like here: http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/

If Greenland totally melted out it is estimated that sea level would rise by around 6 meters, which is nowhere near enough to cause the scenarios you described. You'd need Antarctica to melt significantly as well. You'd need about 40-50m of sea level rise to cause some of what you describe, or you need Greenland to totally melt out and about 75% of Antarctica to melt as well.
Regarding time travel - geez, man, it's been pretty much settled since Einstein. Quote from wikipedia: "Relativity predicts that if one were to move away from the Earth at relativistic velocities and return, more time would have passed on Earth than for the traveler, so in this sense it is accepted that relativity allows "travel into the future" (according to relativity there is no single objective answer to how much time has really passed between the departure and the return, but there is an objective answer to how much proper time has been experienced by both the Earth and the traveler, i.e., how much each has aged; see twin paradox). On the other hand, many in the scientific community believe that backwards time travel is highly unlikely. " Thing is, relativistic speed is not the only method, and leaving Earth is also not a requirement (merely one of possibilities). And, one does not need "infinite" energy to accelerate some mass to _relativistic_ speed (which is, a substantial fraction of speed of light); but for any significant mass, the energy required is quite very large. That's why all the best laboratories can do now - is a tiny fraction of a second for a micro-scale object (fractions of micrograms). Any bigger body and/or longer leap into the future demand excessive (practically not available) amounts of energy.

Regarding Greenland bedrock shape - already discussed, see above in this topic. It's not exactly a bowl, and even if it would be, - this is good to hold only a part (a smaller part) of ice sheet from sliding into the ocean once it's fractured. Not to mention that large enough masses of ice can sometimes cut through terrain like a hot knife through butter. I've seen some landscapes which were created by ice sheets with my own eyes - the scale and geomentry are mind-blowing; it tells a story of truly titanic forces in action. This particular cut goes on for miles and miles:

« Last Edit: June 23, 2014, 03:36:07 PM by F.Tnioli »
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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #122 on: June 24, 2014, 10:27:23 AM »
NSIDC melt area slipped further to under 20% on 22/6, almost back to the seasonal average.

DMI shows increased melt along the west coast, but also increased precipitation to the NW and SW coasts.  Daily SMB loss is at around 3Gt, around the seasonal average.


F.Tnioli

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #123 on: June 24, 2014, 10:44:40 AM »
What seasonal average?

afaik, there is no sensible "seasonal average" for Greenland SMB anymore. The mode of melting changed so much both since the middle of the 20th century, and from the year 2000, that "average" is only possible in mathematical sense, - but not in physical sense. In physical sense, SMB is going down as years go by, and it goes down so fast that every few years any old averages become irrelevant to a current situation. Just look at this:

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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #124 on: June 24, 2014, 01:52:10 PM »
What seasonal average?


F Trivoli, apologies for the shorthand.

For DMI I mean the daily average loss/gain for the date in question between 1990-2011 (shown by the black line on the Polar Portal Graphs).

Similarly for NSIDC I am referring to the average daily percentage of ice sheet under melt conditions between  1981-2010 (shown by the blue dashed line).

Both give me something to put the current melt into context, a 3Gt SMB daily loss is average today, but would have been very high a month ago.

Just as the average temperature for a region allows you to put the current temperature into perspective. If the underlying temperatures are increasing with time, you'd expect the current temperature to be slightly above the trailing 30 year average, it does not make the comparison worthless.  Similarly with sea ice we compare the average daily fall/gain to see if this is a good week.

I agree that looking at daily values does not give you a full picture of the melt (just as one temperature reading gives you no indication of whether the year is a hot/cold one on average), it gives a indication of how strong the melt is at the current time, and I try to refer back to the Year to Date graph regularly.

I'd love to be able to compute comparisons as Jim Petitt does for Sea Ice, but I'm not comfortable doing this from reading values off the graphs as the error margin is so high.  Once the sites publish some form of historic data as a CSV or flat file I'll try and get this set up.

As I've posted previously this years melt looks to be above the historic averages and 2013 so far, but still behind 2012.



F.Tnioli

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #125 on: June 24, 2014, 02:52:54 PM »
See, that's exactly what i meant. With annual Greenland ice sheet mass loss in 2010 (and during all near-2010 years) being many TIMES larger than Greenland ice sheet mass loss in 1990 (and during all near-1990 years) - what physical sense there is in talking about "average during 1990...2010" loss (be it for a single date, which i certainly understood the 1st time, but thank you for clarification anyways, - or for a whole year)?

It's in a way similar to averaging powder gases pressure during early and middle stages of powder combustion while making a shot from a gun. Initially, values are very low, in the middle stage, values are times higher, - and then, someone averages them, and says: "look, the pressure is not so high, it's entirely OK, we can increase the amount of powder since the gun is designed to withstand much more". If they do it, - the gun will blow right into their face, you know?

No. Physical. Sense.

P.S. Oh yes, lots of people do such averages. Even lots of organizations, too. For different reasons: some are just not getting the point (that it's pointless to do such averages, if not harmful); others are doing it to comply with their agenda (often to reduce/mask true scale of events); yet some others simply monkey it - they do it because so many others to it. This all doesn't make the point invalid - much like that the fact that there is LOTS of idiots alive doesn't make any of their incorrect doing/saying to become correct, you know.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2014, 03:22:00 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Buddy

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #126 on: June 24, 2014, 02:59:57 PM »
The trouble with "averages" is that they follow........they don't look forward.

Fast forward 10 years from now when we are talking about the Arctic being TOTALLY ICE FREE for "XX" number of days.

Or fast forward 30 years when we are talking about the Arctic being ice free for "X" number of months.

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F.Tnioli

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #127 on: June 24, 2014, 03:10:40 PM »
Correct, but only partially.

Averages follow _if_ there is a trend to change. If there is no significant trend to change, then there is no movement, - there is nothing to follow. Then averages "stay", and are especially useful.

The more dramatic trend of change is, the more of the "averages only follow" effect there is, except if there are both means to reliably interpolate, and actual properly-done interpolation.

Now, for large trends of change, certain parameters can remain constant. CO2 content is rising non-linearly, but with somewhat persistent (more fluctuating than changing to any direction) _acceleration_ of the concentration rise. Average the acceleration, and it's quite useful (to any attempt to predict future concentrations within reasonably short period of the future); average the rise itself (without interpolating) - and yep, it's "following". Of course, it's not always possible to find _any_ "fluctuating around a particular constant value" parameters - but when it is, then averaging can be used much more sensibly "again".

In practice, though, proper accounting for all statistical and measurements errors often kills seemingly present trends and apparently reliably stable parameters. Still, human mind is a known machine to make "rather reliable" conclusions based on mathematically insufficient (to find a precise answer) data. Wonderful thing, human brain, eh. :)

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #128 on: June 24, 2014, 03:24:50 PM »
Although "average melt on such-and-such a day between 1990 and 2011" uses data from a period of time that includes years with less melt than has been common in recent years, most readers of this thread know that.  When a day's melt is just below the statistical average melt, it tells me that Greenland (just a little tiny island, right? :P) is having a cloudy/snowy/cold (or some combination of these) day, as I expect melt to usually exceed the average.
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #129 on: June 24, 2014, 03:43:30 PM »
Averages are needed in chaotic systems to see trends. 

The daily SMB or Melt Area is a meaningless value in itself without some context, as Tor Bejnar says a lot of it is to do with weather.

The Yearly SMB is in essence an average of the daily SMB as it evens out a lot of the swings present in a highly chaotic system.

Averages need to be taking with care need tipping points, but can still be used to illustrate they have occurred.

Xyrus

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #130 on: June 25, 2014, 03:07:10 AM »
Regarding time travel - geez, man, it's been pretty much settled since Einstein.

Time travel, in any form, is not possible with our current technology (we're nowhere close). Nor are there any inherent restrictions known for time travel other than requiring impossible amounts of energy and penetrating infinite potential wells.

How you got from this to me saying time travel is impossible or in any way refutes the principles of relativity is beyond me.

Relativistic time dilation is not equivalent to time travel. You're applying the effects of special relativity in a situation where it does not apply. Special relativity only applies in non-accelerating reference frames. Accelerating reference frames require the use of general relativity, which is a hell of a lot more complex. The so-called twin paradox arises out of incorrectly applying relativity. Even wikipedia has an entry on the twin paradox stating as much.

Accelerating even a small ship to small values of c requires enormous amounts of energy, far beyond any propulsion or compact energy sources we have available today. Then comes the even bigger issue of how you shield such a craft as even colliding with small specks of dust would destroy the ship.

So no, we have not achieved or even close to achieving real time travel, nor can the effects of relativity be deemed as such. You will not find any physics textbook stating so, and even the the penultimate tome on relativity (Gravitation by Wheeler, Misner, and Thorne) says as much.

Quote
Regarding Greenland bedrock shape - already discussed, see above in this topic. It's not exactly a bowl, and even if it would be, - this is good to hold only a part (a smaller part) of ice sheet from sliding into the ocean once it's fractured. Not to mention that large enough masses of ice can sometimes cut through terrain like a hot knife through butter. I've seen some landscapes which were created by ice sheets with my own eyes - the scale and geomentry are mind-blowing; it tells a story of truly titanic forces in action. This particular cut goes on for miles and miles:



I'm not sure where you're getting your topographical information of the land under the ice, but it is not correct. Greenland IS a bowl. It's a large central basin that is below sea level (most of the ice is located in this basin) surrounded by mountains and highlands. The are three major outlets that are at sea level. One each in the northwest and northeast, and one located about 2/3 of the way down the west coast. Everything else are either small outlets or are hundreds to thousands of meters above sea level.

Ice doesn't flow up hill.


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #131 on: June 25, 2014, 04:25:05 AM »
Right about the bowl.  Wrong about ice never flowing uphill.  Just google http://www.google.com/#q=glacier+flowing+uphill
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #132 on: June 25, 2014, 08:20:33 AM »
Those DMI products are not reliable yet in terms of mass lost.

They even admit that.

Right now we should be focused on surface albedo and how it looks visually.
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #133 on: June 25, 2014, 08:23:19 AM »
Mr. Jason Box or anyone else associated with the DMI albedo products produced thru modis data. 

All of of us here would be very appreciative and grateful for an albedo update for 0-3200M.

It looks really bad on the most recent products.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
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F.Tnioli

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #134 on: June 25, 2014, 08:47:12 AM »
Oh, saying big words, Xyrus, don't we. My topographical information is "not correct", how bold. :) Let's see what was the information you state as "incorrect", shall we. It was, quote: "it's not exactly a bowl". Now, would you kindly look at the map, and notice that there are few "green", rather wide areas between the central Greenland (which is indeed below sea level) and the ocean, thus making Greenland "a bowl with some parts of its side walls missing", which in my book is indeed "not exactly a bowl":



And if you'd try to remind me that central areas are still lower than those "below 50 meters above sea level" green areas, - oh please, spare me; "details, details". A fracturing kilometers-high ice sheet  will cut through dozens of meters of rock, you know. No uphill flow - most of the ice in Greenland is much higher than ~50 meters above sea level. No doubt, some small part of melt water and remains of the ice sheet will remain in low central areas - but it's very few percents of the total ice sheet mass, quite negligible amount. Frankly, i don't think it'd be much practical difference if not 100%, but only say ~95% of Greenland ice sheet would end up in the ocean, eh.

And about time travel. Your argument "Relativistic time dilation is not equivalent to time travel" is correct, but it is also irrelevant, since it does not in any way make time travel impossible. Strictly speaking, we ALL are time travellers - we _move_ (i.e., travel) through time, forward, at a certain pace (and not the slowest pace possible, since we are on Earth, and Earth is a part of Milky Way galaxy, and the latter is moving at a speed which is rather high - sub-relativistic, i'd say). Strictly speaking, relativistic time dilation is _acceleration_ of time travel - not time travel itself. That's strictly speaking, again. In practice, what matters is if some object changes its speed of travel-through-time - increases it, - _relative_ to the rest of mankind, during a particular period of time (as measured by - simplifying, - mankind's clock). This means such an object would effectively "skip" a fraction of said period of time, since for the object, time flows faster, - means, electrons of the object's atoms will make less rotations in compare to electrons of the "rest of mankind" objects.

This is an effect which can be achieved in laboratory, and i wish i would be at a freedom to say more, which i am not.

However, there are still other examples, some are widely known, such as http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/23/sergei-krikalev-time-travel_n_4147793.html . The man, by doing his flights, will die ~20ms later than he otherwise would (from the point of view of the mankind, that is), and if this is not time travel, then what it is? =)
« Last Edit: June 25, 2014, 09:08:50 AM by F.Tnioli »
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #135 on: June 25, 2014, 10:36:00 AM »
Can we take the time travel discussion to 'the rest' forum please, it doesn't fit in here  ::).

NSIDC shows melt area increased to above 20% again on 23/6.

DMI shows the net melt more or less unchanged, with an area of heavy precipitation moving up the east coast continuing to offset heavy melt on the west coast.  On the southern peninsula where the precipitation has moved away melt has decreased. Daily SMB loss is still around 3Gt.

Friv, I'm not sure that they stop by here that regularly! I'm no expert, and as you say the DMI model isn't perfect, but no model is which is based on 20 fixed stations and interpolated from these and satellite data.  Thats not to say its not useful though. It does to respond to the weather, albedo and ice conditions however, and gives us a real time estimation of melt.  Without such a model we'd have to wait 3 months for the Grace Data.

The albedo does seem to be going down rapidly, especially along the west coast.

I've also just seen the following article highlighted in Polar Portals twitter stream that covers some of these albedo changes.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2014/06/20/sudden-surge-melting-seen-atop-greenlands-ice-sheet/#.U6qIXvldVHU

Quote
A Sudden Surge in Melting Seen Atop Greenland’s Ice Sheet
Springtime melting of snow in Greenland spiked over the past week, adding a bit of an exclamation mark to the start of the warm season there.

Frivolousz21

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #136 on: June 25, 2014, 10:44:59 AM »
We are discussing their passion and work.

If they know of this place they surely regularly read it.

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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #137 on: June 25, 2014, 10:49:40 AM »
Albedo has PLUMMETED since these came out a couple weeks ago:


Lower albedo causes more surface melt without a major impact on surface temps.

So it's a deceiving part of this ice game.









I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #138 on: June 25, 2014, 10:59:46 AM »
I would not use the word bowl, Greeland is not an Island but an atoll, an open atoll...That is what it is no ???

F.Tnioli

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #139 on: June 25, 2014, 11:03:04 AM »
Yeah, sort of, just THAT much bigger than a proper coral island, though. :D
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #140 on: June 25, 2014, 03:52:21 PM »
A geologist will claim that natural ice is a mineral - http://geology.com/articles/water-mineral/.  Glaciers and ice caps can be considered to be composed of monomineralic rocks - http://www2.brevard.edu/reynoljh/onlinegeology/glacier/glaciers.htm.  Therefore, Greenland, to a geologist, is an island, not an atoll.

A google search (https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&hl=en&q=greenland+bowl+geology&=&gws_rd=ssl) shows that Greenland is described as "a bowl" (of 'hard' rock) in books on geology, but a quick search finds no scientific description of Greenland (in its current state - I'm not projecting what its state will be next year  :P) as being an atoll or 'shaped like an atoll' (even if the above-sea-level map-presentation [ignore topography] hard-rock portion of Greenland is shaped sort of like an atoll!).

Atolls are pretty much restricted to coral islands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atoll).
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #141 on: June 25, 2014, 04:20:14 PM »
I thoroughly enjoy discussions about Greenland's topography and its effect on melt and release of water and ice into the oceans. What is given is that temperatures will continue to warm and albedo will continue to drop. This can only result in increased melt of the ice sheet. I believe that Greenland's topography, interacting with an increasingly mobile ice sheet holds the key to future ice and melt behavior. It is the physical interplay of a massive, melting and mobile ice sheet and the land mass that matters. Watching this is fascinating. I only regret that the full story will extend far beyond my lifetime.

I do have some very firmly held beliefs. Simple descriptions of Greenland topography as a "bowl" or "archipelago" or "atoll" serve to obscure rather than enlighten. These broad characterizations simply fail in every respect to provide clues as to future behavior. Certainly we should start with the full topography map of Greenland and an understanding of the current depth and mass of the entire ice sheet. The interplay of a dynamic ice sheet and the existing topography may provide some insight into the future behavior on a macroscopic level but the "devil is in the details".

I have provided a single image of the details of Jakobshavn. The first provides the existing speed of the ice sheet and the second shows the most current understanding of the topography which is influencing the behavior of an increasingly mobile ice sheet in this area of Greenland. When we can stitch together a fairly informed understanding of these details with the larger topography we will be better able to predict what Greenland will look like in the future and how it will get there.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2014, 04:29:47 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #142 on: June 25, 2014, 04:51:53 PM »
Having posted the above, I am not certain that this is the correct place to have this discussion. Given we are talking about the 2014 melt season, I think not. Perhaps there is an existing topic where this should be posted. I am not sure but I will scan them to see. I have never created a new topic and am not about to start now

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #143 on: June 25, 2014, 05:49:18 PM »
It maybe working somewhat differently in Greenland, but I suspect not by evidence of lowering albedo levels. Living in an area known for snow I have made some observations. Contaminants landing on snow do not tend to leave as the top layer melts away. It tends to settle down to the bottom of the water where it lands. That means, as contaminants such as soot and dust settle on the ice sheets it will accumulate. As more soot lands it adds to what has landed before. Now when the melt balance was more or less neutral, you could have a case where there was still a protective layer of white between each years accumulation of contaminants. Now though you are getting much more melting occurring on the top layers then has accumulated during the year before and you now get many years of contaminants showing at the top. This adds another layer of positive feedback. As an example those big fires that dumped so much ash on Greenland a couple of years ago? Most of that I suspect is still there causing more melt adding to all the stuff that landed before and has landed since.
If this has already been brought I apologize. Just a thought crossed my mind.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #144 on: June 25, 2014, 05:57:07 PM »

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #145 on: June 25, 2014, 05:58:34 PM »
It maybe working somewhat differently in Greenland, but I suspect not by evidence of lowering albedo levels. Living in an area known for snow I have made some observations. Contaminants landing on snow do not tend to leave as the top layer melts away. It tends to settle down to the bottom of the water where it lands. That means, as contaminants such as soot and dust settle on the ice sheets it will accumulate. As more soot lands it adds to what has landed before. Now when the melt balance was more or less neutral, you could have a case where there was still a protective layer of white between each years accumulation of contaminants. Now though you are getting much more melting occurring on the top layers then has accumulated during the year before and you now get many years of contaminants showing at the top. This adds another layer of positive feedback. As an example those big fires that dumped so much ash on Greenland a couple of years ago? Most of that I suspect is still there causing more melt adding to all the stuff that landed before and has landed since.
If this has already been brought I apologize. Just a thought crossed my mind.

I could not agree more and this positive feedback can only get worse. Continued melt can only further concentrate these contaminants on the surface, lowering albedo further.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #146 on: June 25, 2014, 06:41:00 PM »
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

Just in case you haven't seen this page :)

Thank you for this. Informative but simple enough for me to understand it.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #147 on: June 25, 2014, 06:45:27 PM »
Last post  today and then I'm off to a picnic.

Here is a research paper that provides topographical detail and ice speed for every sea terminating glacier on Greenland. It is the source of the example I provided above for Jakobshavn and represents the latest and most comprehensive understanding of each glacier.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n6/extref/ngeo2167-s1.pdf

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #148 on: June 25, 2014, 07:45:00 PM »

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #149 on: June 25, 2014, 07:52:44 PM »
What form of precipitation is an area experiencing? Rain, such as the rains this last week at Julianehaab, must be melting whatever fresh, high albedo snow as exists down at least to the low albedo strata experienced in recent summers.
The water may not have made it's way to the sea yet, but it must have left behind a far more susceptible surface for rapid melt. Some of the environment Canada products show rain as opposed to snow IIRC & I'm sure I recall rain having fallen as far north as Peary Land in 2012.
When normally Arctic desert regions experience rainfall the resulting melt thins glaciers and fast ice more rapidly than high temperatures.
Terry