While I have previously posted about the following reference in both the "Hansen et al paper: 3+ meters SLR by 2100" thread and the "Risks and Challenges for Regional Circulation Models of the Southern Ocean", thread; here I focus on the threats of the identified "domino effect" on the stability of both large sections of the WAIS and of the marine portions of the AIS by 2100. This research explicitly cites that meltwater from the Wilkes Basin (see the attached image) can help destabilize the Weddell Sea Sector of the WAIS; which to me indicates that a partial collapse of the BSB will help to destabilize the Amery Ice Shelf sector. Neither of these probable occurrences this century are considered by AR5:
Steven J. Phipps, Christopher J. Fogwill, and Christian S. M. Turney (2016), "Impacts of marine instability across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on Southern Ocean dynamics", The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-111
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2016-111/tc-2016-111.pdfAbstract: "Recent observations and modelling studies have demonstrated the potential for rapid and substantial retreat of large sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). This has major implications for ocean circulation and global sea level. Here we examine the effects of increasing meltwater from the Wilkes Basin, one of the major marine-based sectors of the EAIS, on Southern Ocean dynamics. Climate model simulations reveal that the meltwater flux rapidly stratifies surface waters, leading to a dramatic decrease in the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water formation. The surface ocean cools but, critically, the Southern Ocean warms by more than 1
oC at depth. This warming is accompanied by a Southern Ocean-wide ‘domino effect’, whereby the warming signal propagates westward with depth. Our results suggest that melting of one sector of the EAIS could result in accelerated warming across other sectors, including the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Thus localized melting of the EAIS could potentially destabilise the wider Antarctic Ice Sheet."
Extract: "Remarkably, we therefore find that the largest changes in convective depth occur on the opposite side of the continent from the region of freshwater input. Furthermore, this outcome occurs despite the fact that the salinity signal in the Weddell Sea is weak; the average decrease in SSS over the eastern half of the sea, where the greatest reduction in convective depth occurs, is only 0.13psu. This demonstrates that the Weddell Sea is extremely sensitive to freshwater input within the model and can be significantly impacted by melting on the other side of the continent, as a result of the surface freshening being carried westwards by the coastal counter-currents.
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Furthermore, recent work has highlighted the sensitivity of the Weddell Sea sector of the WAIS to changes in local ocean circulation (Hellmer et al., 2012). This is exacerbated by the presence of steep reverse slope beds in regional ice streams (Ross et al., 2012), making this sector particularly vulnerable to warming (Humbert, 2012; Fogwill et al., 2014a).We have established in this study that melting of the EAIS can lead to reduced convection and warming at depth in the Weddell Sea, suggesting that localised melting of one sector of the EAIS might be sufficient to destabilise at least one key sector of the WAIS as well."