Northern Sea Route thread

[Jim Hunt]

Georgiy Brusilov has safely made his way through to the Bering Sea. Meanwhile the fast ice in the Vilkitsky Strait has started breaking up:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northern-sea-route-in-2022/#Jun-30

[Jim Hunt]

A number of commercial vessels have already made the trip, but the Northern Sea Route is now “open” for hypothetical “small craft”, according to the "official" charts at least:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northern-sea-route-in-2022/#Jul-16

However MODIS begs to differ.

[Jim Hunt]

Via Reuters:

Russian energy giant Rosneft said on Tuesday it has started construction of an Arctic oil terminal at the Bukhta Sever port, part of its huge Vostok Oil project, aimed at facilitating development of the Northern Sea Route.

The port will become Russia's largest oil terminal with 102 reservoirs to be built by 2030, the company said.

Rosneft is leading the project that is comparable in size to the exploration of West Siberia in the 1970s or the U.S. Bakken oil region over the past decade...

Rosneft plans to tranship some 30 million tonnes (600,000 barrels per day) of oil via the Bukhta Sever port per year initially with a gradual increase to 100 million tonnes by 2030.

[Stephan]

Via Reuters:

Russian energy giant Rosneft said on Tuesday it has started construction of an Arctic oil terminal at the Bukhta Sever port, part of its huge Vostok Oil project, aimed at facilitating development of the Northern Sea Route.

The port will become Russia's largest oil terminal with 102 reservoirs to be built by 2030, the company said.

Rosneft is leading the project that is comparable in size to the exploration of West Siberia in the 1970s or the U.S. Bakken oil region over the past decade...

Rosneft plans to tranship some 30 million tonnes (600,000 barrels per day) of oil via the Bukhta Sever port per year initially with a gradual increase to 100 million tonnes by 2030.

If - yes, that is a big dream that can't be fulfilled - there will be no relevant demand on oil in 2030 this investment will fail.

[Glen Koehler]

.... or if there is a big demand, we all fail  (unless carbon capture or some other miracle is at work).

[Jim Hunt]

After a few weeks holiday AARI has just started publishing regional ice charts again:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northern-sea-route-in-2022/#Aug-09

The ESS is still firmly "closed" for "small vessels", although very busy with ice hardened LNG carriers!

[Freegrass]

Yes, it's not very busy on the northern sea route right now...

Wondering what that one ship is doing deep into the Beaufort sea. Science expedition?

https://www.marinetraffic.com

[Jim Hunt]

Yes, it's not very busy on the northern sea route right now...

Really? There's 64 vessels listed at the moment.

Wondering what that one ship is doing deep into the Beaufort sea. Science expedition?

You probably mean Healy? But wrong thread!

[gerontocrat]

Sea ice drift on the Russian shore in the ESS has reversed from onshore to offshore.

Perhaps the Northern Sea Route will open in a week or two if that persists?

[Brigantine]

Interesting sub-regions

[phelan]

I was going to ask, it sure looks like the Northern Sea Route is getting ready for a more permanent opening...

[Jim Hunt]

The first LNG shipment of 2023 from Sabetta to the Far East is nearing the Bering Strait:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/06/the-northern-sea-route-in-2023/

[gerontocrat]

The shape of things to come in the Arctic Ocean?

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-begin-year-round-shipping-entire-northern-sea-route-2024#:~:text=A%20New%20Dawn%20for%20Arctic,six%2Dfold%20increase%20over%202023.
Russia to Begin Year-Round Shipping on Entire Northern Sea Route in 2024

Nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 Let Pobedy escorting LNG carrier Rudolf Samoylovich in the direction of the port of Sabetta. (Source: Atomflot/Dmitry Pesin)

Russian officials announced that year-round exports of liquified natural gas from the Arctic to Asia will begin early next year. A milestone for Novatek, the company has worked toward regular winter deliveries along the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route for the past five years.

Just two years after gas carriers conducted the first trial winter voyages along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) Russian gas company Novatek is set to begin year-round shipping along the Arctic seaway.

During an extensive government briefing on the NSR and Arctic development the head of Rosatom – operator of Russia’s expansive nuclear icebreaker fleet – announced the milestone to President Putin.

“Together with Novatek, we plan to launch year-round navigation in the eastern part of the NSR early next year. This is a truly historic decision, important for the development of the entire Arctic and of particular importance, of course, for the economy of our country,” said Alexei Likhachev, CEO of Rosatom.

The development of the NSR has been a key priority for Russia and a personal project of Putin for much of the past decade. During last week’s meeting the Kremlin chief spoke at length about the importance of the route.

“We must think about the future. The Northern Sea Route is opening up, that is obvious. For better or worse, this is happening - the Northern Sea Route is opening,” Putin explained.

A New Dawn for Arctic Shipping – Winter Transits on the Northern Sea Route
Year-round shipping on the route represents a key milestone in Russia’s goal to ship 200 million tons along the route by 2030, a six-fold increase over 2023.

Big milestone for Novatek
Russian natural gas major Novatek has been working toward year-round shipping of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia for the past five years since production at its Yamal LNG plant began at the end of 2017.

Currently, the company sends its gas almost exclusively to Europe during the winter months.

With talks of a potential ban of Russian LNG by the European Union, the ability to send its product to customers in Asia year-round may soon become indispensable for Novatek. The Netherlands have already begun phasing out the import of LNG from Russia.

NSR is a strategic priority
During the briefing Putin appeared eager to push ahead with the development of the route.

None of the major projects in the Arctic has stopped the implementation of their plans.
Alexei Likhachev, CEO of Rosatom
“The development of the Northern Sea Route is, of course, one of the obvious strategic priorities. And here, probably, we should not save and cut something, based on the current situation,” he stated.

Several companies and state enterprises, including Novatek and Rosatom, have become the target of western sanctions, but apart from limited slow-downs Russia’s Arctic projects remain on track.

“Despite the sanctions, including restrictions on the supply of equipment, none of the major projects in the Arctic has stopped the implementation of their plans. Together with Novatek, Norilsk Nickel, Rosneft and other companies, we continue to implement large-scale projects that are important both for the Russian economy and have a key impact on global markets,” said Likhachev of Rosatom.

Rerouting via the Arctic
Even more importantly, the existing development of the NSR has proven critical for Russia’s ability to re-route the flow of hydrocarbon exports away from Europe and toward Asia.

“The embargo imposed by European countries on the supply of Russian oil and oil products not only became a challenge, but also opened a new window of opportunity. We are working on redirecting Russian oil from the Baltic ports to the NSR. Thanks to the route, it became possible to transfer many transport maritime activities from west to east,” concluded Likhachev.

[gerontocrat]

And.......

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/arctic-port-tiksi-opens-foreign-vessels-spur-investments-along-nsr
Arctic Port of Tiksi Opens to Foreign Vessels To Spur Investments along NSR

The municipality of Tiksi in the Sakha Republic. (Source: NOAA)

Russia continues to bank on the development of its Northern Sea Route for future economic prosperity. By designating Tiksi an “international port” it hopes to create a new cargo hub along the route.

Russia announced that it will open the port of Tiksi, located along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Laptev Sea to foreign ships. Previously the Arctic ports of Arkhangelsk and Murmansk were designated “international ports” and opened to foreign ships. But neither is located along the NSR.

The decision, announced by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin over the weekend, aims at attracting investments for the construction of a deepwater port in proximity to Tiksi near the local community of Nayba.

Russian plans for the new hub envision cargo turnover of 30m tons per year at the facility by the 2030s, mainly from dry and liquid bulk cargo.

Transport corridor
The goal is to develop the Tiksi area into an important transshipment hub and facilitate the ongoing development of the entire NSR. The plans for the port not only foresee the reloading of raw materials but also propose regular visits by cruise ships.

“The expansion of the port is a part of the state project of the development of the Northern Sea Route till 2035,” explains Ekaterina Uryupova, Arctic researcher and Senior Fellow at The Arctic Institute, a think tank.

The NSR is especially important in the face of external sanctions pressure.
Russia´s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin
“It is important to have another location along the NSR as a cargo hub.”

Tiksi is located roughly at the halfway point between Europe and Asia making it an ideal stopover and reloading point along the route.

The development of a deepwater port at Nayba is part of an international transport corridor connecting the NSR with the Lena river and the Trans Siberian Railroad to Asia. Russia’s state corporation and operator of the country’s nuclear icebreaker fleet, Rosatom, is also involved in the project. The new port is designed to handle vessels up to a draft of 10 meters.

Looking East as a result of sanctions
According to Prime Minister Mishustin, the development of the NSR is “especially important in the face of external sanctions pressure.”

“The markets are in the east and the government is looking forward to working with eastern allies. The state program on the development of the Russian Arctic and the NSR is definitely a top priority as the country is trying to find ways to avoid pressure from the sanctions and it is looking to the East very much optimistically.”

The development of Nayba is only the next step in the overall Arctic plans, says Uryupova.

“Among the other future developments along the NSR will be the port on the Anabar river, after the development of the port of Nayba.”

[binntho]

Linked to these developments by the Russians is of course their ongoing search for hydrocarbon deposits along the Arctic shore and in the Arctic ocean itself.

Most Russian oil has traditionally been found in Western Siberia, between the Urals and the Yenisey, in a geological structure called the West Siberian Sediment Basin. It is from here that pipelines head to Europe, as shown in this image from National Geographic



In East Siberia, the main geological feature is the Siberian Platform which has traditionally been thought far less likely to contain hydrocarbons, but the discovery of three mega carst structures lead to epxloratory drillings several years ago, and claims of vast reserves have been made. Oil and gas production has already started in this area, between the Yenisei and Lena rivers, but it is still far less well connected to the pipeline network, although new pipes have been laid that connect to the European markets, but mainly to mainland China and the Sea of Japan.

The image below shows how the oil-rich West Siberian Sediment basin stretches into the Arctic, and connects to the Yenisey-Katanga depression which also stretches into the Arctic. Geologically these areas are very likely to contain large reservers of hydrocarbons (from Petroleum Potential in the East Siberian Region, Keishi Nakashima 2004)



And the Russians have already started exploratory drilling in the Arctic, see for example this article from 2021, A major oil exploration is going on in Russia's East Arctic waters.

Several survey vessels are mapping the petroleum potential of the Laptev Sea and a drillship is on its way to spud the first ever wells in the area.

I've never heard of "to spud wells" but apparently this is common oilman jargon for exploratory drilling.

The Bavenit on the 22nd of August set out from Murmansk with course for remote east Arctic waters. The ship, one of Russia’s most advanced vessels of the kind, is due to drill the first ever wells in the Laptev Sea.

According to Rosneft, there has never before been drilled a well in the shallow waters of the area. Drill cores from several wells will now help create a geological model of the region and determine the oil and gas potential, the company informs.

This is all very interesting, and should wake us up to the fact that the Russians are, for better or worse, rapidly industrializing their part of the Arctic, much faster and with far greater impact than the rest of the world seems to realize.

[gerontocrat]

Hence Russia's militarisation of the Arctic

See image attached to see its dominance. A good many are combat warships.
Russia is building another 4 huge nuclear icebreakers.

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/ukraine-arctic-russias-capabilities-region-and-wars-impact-north
From Ukraine to the Arctic: Russia's Capabilities in the Region and the War's Impact on the North

Rezonans-N over-the-horizon radar in the Russian Arctic. (Source: Courtesy of Rosoboronexport)

Published at: Sep 22 2022 - 13:18 / Updated at: Sep 28 2022 - 21:31

For the past decade, Russia has systematically expanded and strengthened its Arctic military through a combination of bases, airfields, and large-scale radar installations, as well as defensive and offensive weapons systems. How will the war in Ukraine affect Russia's capabilities in the region and what challenges do Norway and its allies face in the Arctic?

Building an Arctic Shield
Along more than 6,000 km of Arctic coastline Russia has modernized and expanded existing military installations and constructed numerous new facilities.

Russia’s Arctic military bases, airfields, and radar installations are especially concentrated along the western reaches of the North East Passage, including in the Barents and Kara Sea, in proximity to Russia's Northern Fleet headquarters at Severomorsk on the Kola Peninsula.

It is in this subregion of the Arctic where Russia still enjoys a military advantage in part founded on the substantial capabilities of its Northern Fleet.

Upgrading the Northern Fleet
Last year the Northern Fleet underwent reorganization and was substantially upgraded, becoming its own, and Russia’s fifth, military district. Russia’s Arctic command thus in part serves to protect the forces of the Northern Fleet and its nuclear deterrent.

The country also announced a new naval doctrine last month with a heavy focus on the Arctic.

The Barents Sea serves as a passageway through which Russia’s largest fleet gains access to the world’s oceans.
“Much of Russia’s strategic nuclear assets are concentrated in the Kola Peninsula, in the Arctic,” explains Rebecca Pincus, Director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center.

The western Arctic, including the Barents Sea, serves as passageway through which Russia’s largest fleet gains access to the world’s oceans, concurs Jonas Kjellén, Military Analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Institute.

“Thus, safeguarding the Barents Sea is both about securing safe entry/exits for Northern Fleet vessels and interdiction of ships entering the Northern Sea Route. Hence, Russia has not the ambition to maintain a uniform military stance along its entire northern coasts, but will give priority to the Northern Sea Route entry points, and especially the Western one,” elaborates Kjellén.

Economic interests along the NSR
Russia has committed substantial resources to developing its Arctic resource base along the Northern Sea Route. Thus, in addition to safeguarding the position of its Northern Fleet, Russia also aims to protect its significant investments along the Northern Sea Route.

The NSR is a national security priority for Moscow.
Troy Bouffard
“Russian leadership anticipates that such critical infrastructure, both economic and military, would be targeted in the event of conflict, and therefore has placed it under protection. This is likely a result of economic trends increasing the importance of Russian Arctic resources,” explains Pincus.

Moscow has created a multilayered defense shield of anti-access/area denial capabilities all along the route.

“The NSR is a national security priority for Moscow,” states Troy Bouffard, Director of the Center for Arctic Security and Resilience at University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Arctic oil and gas projects
This priority is not surprising given the fact that Russian energy companies like Novatek, Gazprom and Rosneft have invested vast quantities of money to develop and exploit oil and natural gas from reserves located along and in proximity of the NSR.

Expanding military bases, airfields and radar installations
Over the past decade Russia has expanded and modernized around a dozen existing military bases and airfields across the Arctic, including Rogachevo on Novaya Zemlya.

In addition it has also constructed at least three bases from scratch in new locations or adjacent to decrepit Cold War installations.

All three bases follow a similar design, commonly referred to as “Arctic Trefoil” consisting of a central living and administrative building in a triangular shape.

The bases are located in the western, central and eastern part of the Russian Arctic and opened between 2015 and 2017.

Nagurskoye Air Base is situated on Alexandra Land, part of Franz Josef Land around 350 km to the east of Svalbard. Temp Air Base is located along the center of Russia’s Arctic waters on Kotelny Island, part of the New Siberian Islands.

In the Far East the slightly smaller Ushakovskoye Base sits on Wrangel Island. Russia has equipped a number of bases with S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missiles.


Select military and air bases in the Russian Arctic.
Extending Arctic airfields

A number of Arctic bases, including Nagurskoye Air Base and Temp Air Base, are located adjacent to seasonal or year-round air fields.

The air strips at Nagurskoye and Temp have been improved from gravel and ice surfaces during the summer and winter months to concrete surface runways.

Both runways have also been extended in length to accommodate modern fighter jets, bombers and long-range patrol aircraft. These runways give Russia the ability to service, refuel or station aircraft in the high Arctic.

Squadrons of MiG-31 fighter-interceptors are stationed at Rogachevo on Novaya Zemlya and have also been deployed to Nagurskoye.

Radar overlooking western part of Arctic
Russia currently operates three Rezonans-N radar complexes, with two more expected to enter into service by the end of the year.

The facilities are designed for the long-range detection of enemy aircraft, missiles – including new hypersonic ones – and unmanned aerial vehicles, commonly known as drones.

Unlike conventional radar, where the effective range is limited by the curvature of the earth, Rezonans-N radar provides over-the-horizon capabilities and can spot targets up to a distance of between 600-1,200 km and up to a height of 100 km.

Unlike traditional radar, which rotates around its own axis, Rezonans-N relies on a stationary square design to detect targets in all directions. This design without rotating antennas is especially suitable for the harsh weather and temperature conditions in the Arctic.

The five Rezonans-N installations form a half circle from near the Norwegian border, along the Kola peninsula and Nenets district, and up the island of Novaya Zemlya.

The first two facilities have operated from Cape Kanin and Indiga since 2017. In 2019 a third was completed as part of the Rogachevo Airbase on Novaya Zemlya.

[binntho]

It's almost like they are sneaking their way in (or rather out) through the back door. Russia is already the second/third biggest oil producer in the world after the USA. The other contender is Saudi Arabia, but recent numbers indicate that the Russians are now firmly in second place in spite of sanctions etc.

As for reserves, the Saudis were traditionally thought to hold the laurels even if their reserves have been surprisingly resilient for half a century or more - apparently it doesn't matter how much oil is pumped out, the reserves never diminish. At the same time the Russians are finding potentially huge new reservoirs, so might well overtake the Saudis, same as the Venesuelans did (tripling proven reserves in 10 years from 100 to 300 billion barrels, with the Saudis remaining stuck at 200).

The troll of Global Warming to Come must be laughing his head off.

[Sebastian Jones]

Russia is making a massive bet that the demand for fossil fuels will increase and remain robust indefinitely (it won't) and that extensive defences are needed across the Arctic because someone is threatening them (they are not).
It costs a small fortune to build and maintain a fleet of nuclear powered ice breakers, and a series of military bases. Russia does not have a particularly big economy. Developing oil and gas in the high arctic is incredibly expensive. If they do not find some major (profitable) fossil fuel fields, all this investment will be wasted. And I don't think they will be able to afford it.

[binntho]

Sebastian, I think you are wrong on all counts. There is huge demand still for fossil fuels, and it is not going down. Even if all cars turn into EVs it won't make much of a difference. Current estimates of growth in demand for oil expects growth to slow after 2030 but demand has traditionally been underestimated.

Russia is not a small economy. It ranks 11th in the world in GDP, below South Korea in 10th and above Brazil in 12th (2022 figures). It is the second biggest oil producer in the world and may well be the largest oil exporter (the US which is the biggest producer is also the biggest consumer).

The oil is almost certainly there, demand for oil is strong and growing over the coming decades, and developing these oil fields will create a massive revenue for the Russian state over the coming decades.

Whether that is good or bad is another issue altogether. But here is an image from Copernicus EU facebook site, showing the Lena delta. Truly beautiful.

[morganism]

Gazprom delivers LNG to China in Arctic sea route first
Sept 15, 2023

Russian energy giant Gazprom said Friday it has made a first delivery of liquefied natural gas to China via the Arctic Northern Sea Route as receding ice sheets render the route more viable.

Russian authorities hope the route will help increase oil and gas deliveries to Asia at a time when Moscow's traditional European clients are ramping down their energy dependence on Russia following the conflict in Ukraine.

"Gazprom has for the first time delivered its own LNG production along the Northern Sea Route," the company said in a statement.

The Arctic route cuts down the duration of shipments by more than a week compared with using the Suez Canal in Egypt.

Gazprom said LNG carrier Velikiy Novgorod, which left the LNG terminal at Portovaya outside the western city of St Petersburg on August 14, finished discharging its cargo Friday at the northeastern Chinese port of Tangshan in Hebei province.

Private group Novatek, number two natural gas producer in Russia behind Gazprom, used the same route to deliver to China in 2018.

The route "allows a substantial reduction in the time it takes to make LNG deliveries to Asia-Pacific countries," Gazprom stated.

With Russia hit by Western sanctions over Ukraine, Gazprom, a pillar of the national economy, wants to maintain volume of LNG deliveries after a slump in European deliveries.

Gazprom's net profit fell eightfold in the first half of the year to $3 billion.

https://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Gazprom_delivers_LNG_to_China_in_Arctic_sea_route_first_999.html

[kiwichick16]

@  binntho  .....according to these estimates road transport in OECD countries is 48 % of oil consumption .....other transport another 9 %

https://www.statista.com/statistics/307194/top-oil-consuming-sectors-worldwide/

[binntho]

Which is certainly interesting. The use of EVs is growing much faster than anybody expected, but percentage wise it will not reach 50% before 2030 or even 2040. The vast majority of cars produced and sold today are not EVs and the lifespan of a car is around 12 years.

After 2050 we will most likely see a drop in oil consumption, but by then it will be at a much higher level than it is today, and may not reach 2023 levels before 2060 or 2070. So anybody investing in oil production today is making a very solid bet.

[oren]

Good points about oil and EVs, but to be continued elsewhere.

[interstitial]

Which is certainly interesting. The use of EVs is growing much faster than anybody expected, but percentage wise it will not reach 50% before 2030 or even 2040. The vast majority of cars produced and sold today are not EVs and the lifespan of a car is around 12 years.

After 2050 we will most likely see a drop in oil consumption, but by then it will be at a much higher level than it is today, and may not reach 2023 levels before 2060 or 2070. So anybody investing in oil production today is making a very solid bet.

Sinopec? said their oil demand will peak this year of course that is China. IEA said oil demand will peak in the next few years by 2030 at the latest. Of course OPEC complained about that prediction. I am convinced peak oil demand is coming soon but I do not expect it to decline very quickly.

[morganism]

Russia routes thin-hulled oil tankers through Arctic for first time

Use of unreinforced vessels raises risks of environmental disaster as Moscow diverts sanctions-hit exports


https://www.ft.com/content/34551893-e9ef-49cc-b256-f8ac21d4bd39


Russia has authorised unreinforced oil tankers to sail through its icy Northern Sea Route for the first time, triggering warnings Moscow is risking a catastrophic Arctic spill as it reroutes sanctions-hit energy exports to Asia.

Two tankers were granted permission in August to carry out the 3,500-mile long journey along Russia’s northern coast, despite not being so-called “ice class” tankers that are strengthened to withstand icier conditions.

The thin-hulled vessels sailed for China in early September, navigating one of the most dangerous ice passages on the planet for the first time, far from any capabilities to respond to oil spills.

“Sea ice is unpredictable and routes are very hard to maintain,” said Charlie Kronick at Greenpeace UK. “Using non-ice-class tankers makes the already high likelihood of an accident that much worse.”

Moscow has in recent years hailed the Northern Sea Route, which lies entirely within the Arctic waters, as offering a shorter shipping route to China. A warming climate has opened up the route in summer months, which is far quicker than sailing the normal way via the Suez Canal.

[bosbas]

It seems the ice in Vilkitsky Strait has just started to break up. Earlier than the years since 2017.