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Andreas T

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #50 on: August 16, 2016, 09:26:36 AM »
I don't know whether the hold up means they have to hurry to get through the NWP. How long do they have, a good month?
Depending on wind direction another obstacle might develop as I have indicated on todays MODIS. the red cross marks the approximate position of Northabout.

Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #51 on: August 16, 2016, 01:44:29 PM »
Judging by Ousland's blog they're a few days ahead of his progress in 2010.
He was at 76.60189 N, 112.68207 E on the 17th Aug.  They encountered a storm on about the 21st by the New Siberian islands.
http://www.ousland.no/category/northern-passage-2010/page/8/
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #52 on: August 16, 2016, 02:03:44 PM »
I meant to check up on this. Thanks, Phil.

If they're ahead of Ousland's schedule, they have a good chance of making it. They've done everything right so far. Any updates from Goddard/Heller yet?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #53 on: August 16, 2016, 02:16:54 PM »
Any updates from Goddard/Heller yet?

Since you ask, "southwest winds never occurred at lower CO2 levels".

Personally I recommend the better class of reporting from "Snow White", which includes moving pictures of sea ice:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/northabout-meets-some-serious-sea-ice/#Aug-15



She's also rather fond of this:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/759702312256434176
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Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #54 on: August 16, 2016, 03:01:35 PM »
Just the usual nonsense, shifted his story from 'blocked by hundreds of miles of 1-2 meter thick ice' to 'strong southwest winds over the past two days pushed the ice far off shore', which of course is said to be perfectly normal and unrelated to global warming.

Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #55 on: August 16, 2016, 03:26:40 PM »
Ousland reached the international date line about the 1st September, so we'll see what the relative performance is by then.

Reggie

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #56 on: August 16, 2016, 06:16:37 PM »
 Yesterday morning Watts went on the record and made an unambiguous statement that there is no Arctic cyclone and that it is only the product of my (deranged) imagination.
 Willard Watts...the gift that keeps on giving.

Now for the bad news...
If Monday's JMA 144Z comes to fruition, there is a possible blue Arctic this fall which no sane person desires...check out the 104.2 hPa high  over Greenland!

If so inclined, prayers to the deity of your choice is in order.
 
 
 
 
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 06:27:33 PM by Reggie »

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #57 on: August 16, 2016, 10:48:28 PM »
Ousland reached the international date line about the 1st September

In 2013 Tara didn't cross the international date line until September 10th

http://oceans.taraexpeditions.org/en/jdb/the-date-line-off-wrangel/
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Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #58 on: August 16, 2016, 11:49:27 PM »
Ousland was at the point where Northabout is now on 19th Aug so about three days leeway.

Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #59 on: August 17, 2016, 04:07:31 PM »
Northabout starting to swing to the north to round the Lena delta.

APMartie2

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #60 on: August 18, 2016, 04:58:23 AM »
I have been watching the Laptev Sea area from about 8/13 through the intensification process of GAC 2016 (if that is what it is being called) and now a few days after. Winds (per Null school) seem to have blown consistently and quite strongly out into Laptev and towards the New Siberian Islands yet per Daily AMSR2 Sea Ice Maps, the ice does not seem to have moved very much.

I am a bit of noob here, having lurked around the forums since ‘12, so hope this is not too dumb a question but don’t quite understand why the ice did not clear a bit more out of Northern Sea route and drift towards the east. Is there a shoal or bank in this part of Laptev that keeps the ice from moving with wind? Thanks for any insight.

Reggie

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #61 on: August 18, 2016, 06:12:53 AM »
@Jim Hunt
Had a brief exchange on Twitter DM with Hempleman Adams...

Northabout encountered  some ice and a sandbar resulting in several manuevers around the obstacles.

He also mentioned being surprised about how many people were "watching" them.


Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #62 on: August 18, 2016, 11:32:36 AM »
I recall Ousland mentioning shallow water off the delta when he was in this part of the trip.

Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #63 on: August 19, 2016, 03:25:29 PM »
Northabout still ahead of Ousland's position in 2010, also as he had to put into Pevek for a couple of days, is likely to remain so.  Closing in on the Lyakhovsky islands which Ousland passed on Aug 23rd.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #64 on: August 19, 2016, 09:42:33 PM »
The latest ice chart from my latest update:

"Northabout Races for the Date Line"

The East Siberian Sea is (metaphorically) in sight for the crew of Northabout:
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ghoti

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #65 on: August 20, 2016, 03:32:35 PM »
If the boundary between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea is marked by the New Siberian Islands then it is no longer metaphorical. The Northabout has passed east of Ostrov Bolshoy Layskhovskiy so I think we can say it is now literally  in the East Siberian Sea.

They haven't posted images lately to show how much or how little ice they are encountering along the way now. Seems to me the massive storm has to be as much of a concern as the ice at this stage of their voyage.

Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #66 on: August 23, 2016, 01:46:37 PM »
The latest ice chart from my latest update:

"Northabout Races for the Date Line"

The East Siberian Sea is (metaphorically) in sight for the crew of Northabout:

Looks like they're heading south at 165º, presumably to round that patch of ice (9)?

Andreas T

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #67 on: August 23, 2016, 02:10:48 PM »
worldview has a clear image of this area http://go.nasa.gov/2bKPZlY, it seems they are near the southern edge of it now if the projection of the track map http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/ is similar enough.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #68 on: August 26, 2016, 01:18:59 AM »
Northabout crossed 180 degrees longitude south of Ostrov Vrangelya earlier this evening (UTC)

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/northabout-races-for-the-date-line/#Aug-25-PM
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #69 on: August 26, 2016, 01:24:47 AM »

I hope they are ready for some rough weather! At least it should be a tail wind....

ghoti

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #70 on: August 26, 2016, 04:23:08 AM »
From the track map it looks like they stopped briefly at 180 long. Probably a well deserved celebration and ceremony for crossing the date line.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #71 on: August 26, 2016, 12:19:12 PM »
Whilst it does appear there was at least a slow down in the vicinity of 180 degrees Northabout hasn't actually crossed the date line just yet, since it wriggles its way through the Bering Strait at around 168 west:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #72 on: August 26, 2016, 04:27:57 PM »
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Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #73 on: August 28, 2016, 08:30:44 PM »
Looks like they're about to enter Barrow.

mamooth

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #74 on: August 29, 2016, 12:27:24 AM »
At this moment, they appear to be anchored just outside of North Salt Lagoon, which contains the single pier of Barrow harbor (at least that's how I interpret the images). I thought at first they were blowing by Barrow, but no. To get to the harbor, they had to go around Point Barrow, and then come back in from the other side.

TerryM

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #75 on: August 29, 2016, 01:51:06 AM »
Looks like they're about to enter Barrow.
Good!
Sailing downwind in a fore & aft rigged boat, with following seas, is never pleasant.  I'd assume that with all the bergy-bits and growlers that scudding off on a series of fast broad tacks was out of the question.
Seems like a great time to get some shore rest, do some repairs, & buy a gimbal for their stove.
Terry

Phil.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #76 on: August 29, 2016, 12:50:47 PM »
At this moment, they appear to be anchored just outside of North Salt Lagoon, which contains the single pier of Barrow harbor (at least that's how I interpret the images). I thought at first they were blowing by Barrow, but no. To get to the harbor, they had to go around Point Barrow, and then come back in from the other side.

They had a planned stop over in Barrow for resupply, maintenance and crew change.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #77 on: August 29, 2016, 03:11:25 PM »
Since Northabout is no longer voyaging along the NSR, perhaps we might continue that conversation on the NWP thread?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg87889.html#msg87889
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charles_oil

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #78 on: September 09, 2016, 10:30:55 PM »
Dont know if its the best place - but this evening Channel 5 (uk) has been showing an interesting 2012 documentary about the arctic icebreaking tanker en route for oil & icebreaker development   Route is to Varandey terminal, on the coast of the Barents Sea & the trip was in March.

http://www.channel5.com/show/big-bigger-biggest

For the terminal:
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-17/more-oil-is-flowing-from-one-part-of-the-arctic-than-libya

Don't know if it can be found on catch up etc...

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #79 on: December 14, 2016, 05:49:43 PM »
From The Independent Barents Observer

The Northern Fleet moves into its new premises at Kotelny, the New Siberian Islands. Several more Arctic bases will be opened shortly, military representatives say.

« Last Edit: February 03, 2017, 01:08:39 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #80 on: December 14, 2016, 08:21:30 PM »
It's all go on the NSR news front today!

The volume of seaborne cargo shipped in transit along the Northern Sea Route, as of December 1, 2016 reached 6.9 million tonnes, an official of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia said Tuesday.

Alexander Cybulski, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia, speaking at a session of the state commission on development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation said that was a record figure.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #81 on: January 26, 2017, 07:04:51 PM »
According to the Siberian Times:

Bulk carriers Sinegorsk and Johann Mahmastal made a successful midwinter cargo crossing from Arkhangelsk to Russia's northernmost port of Pevek, Chukotka, escorted by icebreakers Kapitan Dranitsyn and Admiral Makarov.

It was the first such crossing since Soviet times, and the ships delivered supplies for the supplies for the world's first floating heat and power plant to be assembled in Chukotka after a journey lasting from 14 December to 7 January.

The ease of the sailing is seen as a sign that climate warming in the Arctic can open up shopping lanes even in midwinter. But the climate remains unpredictable as the four vessels have discovered on their return route.

They are currently trapped by sudden thick ice around Chukotka's northernmost cape Shelagsky, some 24 nautical miles from Pevek, in some of Russia's most exposed waters.

In a subsequent story the Siberian Times reveals that:

A spokesman for Rosmorport has announced the icebreakers will delay a return until probably May or early June. 'The vessels will remain for the winter because of the very heavy severe ice conditions,' he said.

All the vessel got out of the ice, and three of them - Captain Dranitsyn and the two cargo ships - returned to Pevek. The Admiral Makarov moved further east to continue working for Rosmorport in clearing sea routes.

Officials said the icebreakers could have gone further through the ice but there was 'a very high risk of significant damage' to the supply ships, and it was decided to postpone the return to Archangelsk.




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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #82 on: February 02, 2017, 06:27:59 PM »
The Independent Barents Observer reported yesterday that:

The Shturman Ovtsyn set course for the history books when it in late December left the yard of the Samsung Heavy Industries in South Korea. On 21st December, it made it through the Bering Strait and into the Chukchi Sea in a convoy escorted by nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 Years of Victory.

Two other vessels, the heavy load carrier Audax and general cargo ship Arktika-1, were also part of the convoy.

It was tough sailing. In the East-Siberian Sea, the ships had to make it through an area of combined one-year and multi-year pack-ice. Ice conditions were very difficult, the sailors admit.

On 3rd January, the ships arrived in the Gulf of Ob. While the Audax and Arktika-1 docked in Sabetta, the port on the northern end of the Yamal Peninsula, the Shturman Ovtsyn singlehandedly proceeded deeper into the gulf to Cape Kamenny and the Novy Port oil terminal.

It was a unique and unprecedented operation. Never before has such a convoy crossed through the Northern Sea Route, from the east to the west, at this time of year.

Here's the official map of the convoy's route from Sovcomflot's original Russian language news article:



More recently there's this news of another new Sovcomflot oil tanker:

On 29th January, the Shturman Albanov picked up oil from Gazprom Neft’s Arctic Gate terminal off the coast of Cape Kamenny. That marked the first one million tons of oil shipped from the terminal.

« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 06:40:47 PM by Jim Hunt »
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #83 on: February 02, 2017, 06:48:48 PM »

Welcome to a commercial Arctic.

gregcharles

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #84 on: February 02, 2017, 09:33:00 PM »
"Never before has such a convoy crossed through the Northern Sea Route, from the east to the west, at this time of year."

That's an interesting point. Was there a previous winter crossing from the west to the east? Why would that be easier?

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #85 on: February 02, 2017, 09:39:10 PM »
Was there a previous winter crossing from the west to the east?

Not that rings any bells in my ageing brain, but I may do my due diligence when I have a spare 5 minutes.

Why would that be easier?

Because the Vilkitsky Strait is the furthest north "choke point" on the NSR, and you pass through there earlier heading west to east?
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binntho

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #86 on: February 03, 2017, 08:48:30 AM »
By a funny coincidence (!), news outlets in Iceland are today reporting that the Bremen Port Authority has received green light from the Bremen authorities (the senate of the Freie Hansestadt Bremen) to go ahead with preparing the construction of a massive port facility and container terminal in North-Eastern Iceland. This project has been ongoing for some time, mostly in the discussion stage, but now with the go-ahead from the Bremen city senate, the project moves to the next phase.

The purpose of the port facility is solely to open op for shipping by special-built arctic container vessels between the port in Iceland and a matching facility on the Pacific side, most likely in Kamchatka.

Press release (in German): http://www.bremenports.de/unternehmen/presse/pressemitteilungen/pressedetailseite?news_id=2905

Map and location of proposed port facility:


Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #87 on: February 03, 2017, 10:44:24 AM »
« Last Edit: February 03, 2017, 11:32:17 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Neven

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #88 on: February 03, 2017, 11:10:23 AM »
Some news from the Northern Sea Route Information Office as well (although their website is currently offline):

+ 02.02.2017
+ Traffic volume on the NSR increased in 2016
+ Traffic volume on the Northern Sea Route in 2016 has increased by 35% in
+ comparison with 2015 and reached 7 mln 265,7 th tonnes
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #89 on: February 03, 2017, 11:44:37 AM »
Some news from the Northern Sea Route Information Office as well (although their website is currently offline):

I see what you mean. The NSRA site is working though. Current traffic:

http://nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/
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Carex

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #90 on: February 03, 2017, 12:31:34 PM »
Russia, earlier this year sent a convoy, east to west, from Archangel to Pevek.  Technically not a passage through but close enough.  This route was also used in Soviet times.  They seem to have become stuck on the return trip, just about the time the early January storm was moving most of the ice mass west.  Referance: Atlas Obscura. I also read something in a translated Russian article but do not remember what it was from.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #91 on: February 03, 2017, 01:05:26 PM »
Russia, earlier this year sent a convoy, east to west, from Archangel to Pevek

Might this be the one you're thinking of?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=854.msg100668#msg100668

If so please see my latest learned journal article on the topic for an "alternative" take on the news:

Alternative Facts About the Arctic in 2017

Unbiased peer reviewers welcome!
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charles_oil

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #92 on: February 03, 2017, 03:22:10 PM »
Plenty of activity...

Russia in Biggest Arctic Military Push Since Soviet Fall
January 30, 2017 by Reuters
http://gcaptain.com/russia-biggest-arctic-military-push-since-soviet-fall/

Sovcomflot’s Arctic Tankers Hit Milestone ‘One Million Tonnes’
January 30, 2017 by gCaptain
http://gcaptain.com/sovcomflots-arctic-tankers-hit-milestone-one-million-tonnes/

PHOTOS: ‘HHL Valparaiso’ Delivers STS Cranes via North Sea Route
January 5, 2017 by Mike Schuler
http://gcaptain.com/photos-hansa-heavy-lift-vessels-delivers-sts-cranes-via-north-sea-route/
They arrived at the port of Vostochny   http://www.vostport.ru/en/ so I guess a delicate load like this isn't too much of a worry nowadays.

For a both-ways trip in 2010:
Russian container ship makes history with round-trip arctic voyage - November
http://gcaptain.com/russian-container-ship-history/



binntho

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #93 on: February 03, 2017, 10:56:36 PM »
Looking at the transit statistics, it seems that there has been a sharp fall between 2013 ( 71 vessels) and 2014 (22 vessels). Why?

http://www.arctic-lio.com/nsr_transits

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #94 on: February 03, 2017, 11:27:11 PM »
Looking at the transit statistics, it seems that there has been a sharp fall between 2013 ( 71 vessels) and 2014 (22 vessels). Why?

Geopolitics?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg33924.html#msg33924
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #95 on: February 24, 2017, 01:25:35 PM »
Cross posting from the Arctic Drilling thread:

Traffic on the NSR can reach 75 mln tons to 2025



The traffic on the Northern Transport Corridor that includes arctic seas from the Barents and the White to the Chukchi and the Bering seas can reach 75 mln tons per year to 2025, reported to TASS Mikhail Grigoryev, the member of the Scientific Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences in geology issues and development of oil, gas and coal.

“We have analyzed the extent of companies’ production on approved development projects and seen if applied projects – “Arctic LNG”, shipment of coal from “Chaika” terminal, “Pechora LNG” - are additionally implemented, to 2025 the traffic in the Arctic waters (including the NSR) concerned with the development of mineral resources will reach around 75 mln tons per year”, said Mr. Grigoryev prior to the 2nd International Conference “Arctic-2017”, that takes place on 16-17th of February in Moscow.

As he said, overall traffic on the NSR in 2016 exceed 7 mln tons and in North East passage – 18 mln tons.

“International transit via the NSR in 2016 has reached to 240 th. tons. This amount does not include pass-through voyages, when a vessel sails through all the Route and calls in an arctic port for cargo delivery. The export of hydrocarbon raw materials arranged the main cargo flow. 8 mln tons was exported from Varandey port in the Pechora Sea, 2 mln tons of cargo flow were provided by Prirazlomnaya oil platform, around 3 mln tones gave Novyy Port”, said Mr. Grigoryev.

The main delivered cargo is connected with the construction of Yamal LNG, most of them delivered by sea and some by rivers. “It is temporary situation, further, the cargo type will be changed, and significant delivery will start. When the Yamal LNG plant reaches estimated capacity it will give 16,5 mln tons of LNG and around 1,5 mln tons of gas condensate. Export growth is already evident: in 2015 the delivery to the ports and harbors of the Northern Sea Route was 73% of total traffic, and in 2016 it was reduced to 43%.”

Hydrocarbon traffic on the NSR, according to experts, should reach 40 mln tons by 2022. Mr.Grigoryev precised that the amount includes only those projects that have existing development projects, almost 25 mln tons will be compiled in the Ob Bay.


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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #96 on: March 12, 2017, 11:19:18 AM »
I wonder how those "ice bound icebreakers" are coping with the latest developments near Chaunskaya Bay?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#Chukchi
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #97 on: March 12, 2017, 11:41:40 AM »
TASS reports that:

The cargo turnover along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2016 reached a level above the previous record of 6.9 million tons, and by 2020 it may reach 31 million tons depending on development of the Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye gas field and further development of Yamal’s deposits, FESCO’s (Far East Shipping Company) Head of the Fleet Department Vladimir Chabrov told TASS on Monday.

"The Ministry of Economic Development reports a record level of cargo turnover along the Northern Sea Route in 2016 - as of December 1, 2016, 6.9 million tons were transported there, which is a record in that transport corridor’s history, including the Soviet times," he said. "Due to stages of developing the Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye gas field and to further development of nearby hydrocarbon deposits in Yamal, the cargo turnover may reach 31 million tons by 2020 already. The biggest part of the cargo would be raw material from the Prirazlomnoye and Port Sabetta fields."

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Cate

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #98 on: March 12, 2017, 02:45:55 PM »
Such a powerful image, Jim.

Russia is owning the Arctic.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #99 on: July 03, 2017, 05:16:00 PM »
Via F.Tnioli, news from March 30th:

The 80,000 tonne-capacity Christophe de Margerie, an ice-class tanker fitted out to transport liquefied natural gas, docked in the icy port of Sabetta, with Russian President Vladimir Putin watching via live video-link.

Putin congratulated the crew and energy company officials gathered on the ship's bridge, saying: "This is a big event in the opening up of the Arctic."

The South Korean-built vessel was not picking up a cargo on its maiden voyage, but will eventually be used to transport gas from Russia's Yamal LNG plant, which is near the port.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-novatek-lng-putin-idUSKBN1712K6



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