Per Bob Wallace:
Global oil consumption has been increasing. It will almost certainly peak and then we will probably see demand decay by 2030.
Bob.... I hate to disagree with you. But I don't think that demand for oil will "decay" by 2030. I think it will be
CRUSHED by 2030.
Demand is more likely to
START TO DECLINE by 2021 or 2022.
Some of you have heard of Tony Seba. Someone (I forget again...sorry) had initially posted a video of Tony Seba. Some of you likely have seen his video's.... some of you apparently have
NOT.For those of you looking for an
UPDATED VIDEO of Tony Seba this year (I believe this is from March 2018) .... here you go. Right from the horses mouth:
Tony is actually a little more
AGRESSIVE in his predictions than I am. I held my beliefs by looking at the same things that Tony was looking at (even before I heard of Tony). It wasn't "rocket science" ..... but it
DID take a lot of "observation of facts"..... and thinking how the next few years would play out. So I didn't take up my position because of Tony Seba. He's likely a
MUCH, MUCH smarter guy than I am. But it doesn't take "smarts" to look at this issue and arrive at pretty much the same place as Tony Seba (again ... I'm a little more conservative than him... but you get my point).
I have stated that in the US,
THE LAST NEW ICE ONLY PASSENGER CAR SOLD IN THE US WILL HAPPEN BY THE END OF 2025. Tony thinks that will happen
WORLDWIDE by 2025. By the way..... the MAKERS of new cars, like VW ..... don't see Tony's predictions happening as well. And yes.... I think they will be VERY, VERY WRONG. Imagine that .... a company not seeing the future hitting them in the face (sarcasm intended).
Keep in mind.... that Tony's previous "prediction" about some of the "cost curves" have actually
NOT come true.
HE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN TOO CONSERVATIVE in his prediction about the drop in price of lithium ion batteries for instance. His prediction in 2014 was that batteries would continue to drop in price at the rate of 16% per year. In fact.... they have been dropping at the rate of 20% per year recently.
And the oil market? It is going to get decimated and soon. I'm a big fan of 350.org and of Bill McKibben. It is
VERY DIFFICULT to be
EARLY .... and to go up against a beast like fossil fuel companies. Many continued cudo's to him.
But the "convergence" of technologies required to "slay that dragon" are indeed coming together even faster than Tony Seba had said 4 years ago. And they continue to this day.
RE: Exxon Mobile.
Quit looking in the rear view mirror. You're about to rear end somebody, and that somebody is a
STEEP DECLINE IN OIL DEMAND that will likely start in a couple of years. And the market....
HAS ALREADY SPOKEN.Oil prices peaked at
$147 ..... years ago. July 11th, 2008 to be exact. By December of 2008 it was $32.
I encourage all of you to listen to the
WHOLE VIDEO (about an hour). It touches on the many things that are converging. The cliff will be steep....