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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #50 on: October 10, 2014, 12:32:32 PM »
Confirmed: California Aquifers Contaminated With Billions Of Gallons of Fracking Wastewater
http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/10/07/central-california-aquifers-contaminated-billions-gallons-fracking-wastewater

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #51 on: October 10, 2014, 03:46:27 PM »
This strikes me as... odd.  Lego breaks ties with Shell Oil for environmental public relations reasons. 
But, Legos (plastic pieces) are made from oil!  :o

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/lego-ends-shell-partnership-following-greenpeace-campaign


In the U.S., more than 2 % of fossil fuel consumption is used to make plastics. This includes natural gas, petroleum distillates and electricity consumption for the manufacturing process.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=34&t=6


Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #52 on: October 10, 2014, 04:07:33 PM »
In Germany, 129 million barrels of oil are converted into synthetic materials annually.

http://www.wintershall.com/en/company/oil-and-gas/oil-can-do-more.html

http://www.onlineconversion.com/forum/forum_1058197476.htm

This is 14%  of total annual oil consumption of 912 million barrels.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gm&v=91

I am having a hard time finding data on profit margins of various uses of oil but I have to believe that synthetic materials have far higher profit margins than a gallon of gasoline. If you want to  hit oil and refinery company profits, reduce your consumption of synthetic materials. This drop in profits would keep a lot of that "expensive to extract" oil in the ground.

Think plastics but also synthetic fibers used in textiles.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #53 on: October 10, 2014, 09:55:19 PM »
If you want to hit oil company and refinery profits crush your ICEV (or if it's efficient sell it on to someone who can send their inefficient car to the crusher).

Get an EV.  Or a PHEV.  Or avoid driving if possible. 

If you look at how much plastic you recycle/send to the landfill per month compared to the amount of petroleum you burn.  The US uses 18, 19 million barrels of oil a day.  Over 6,500 per year.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #54 on: October 10, 2014, 10:21:12 PM »
Confirmed: California Aquifers Contaminated With Billions Of Gallons of Fracking Wastewater
http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/10/07/central-california-aquifers-contaminated-billions-gallons-fracking-wastewater


I read the link and followed back to its source.

"Almost 3 billion gallons of oil industry wastewater have been illegally dumped into central California aquifers that supply drinking water and farming irrigation, according to state documents obtained by the Center for Biological Diversity. The wastewater entered the aquifers through at least nine injection disposal wells used by the oil industry to dispose of waste contaminated with fracking fluids and other pollutants."


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #55 on: October 11, 2014, 02:03:06 PM »
Why shale oil stocks are tanking.  Lower price for the crude oil means the value of the reserve is less, which means more high-interest debt.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102078976
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JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #56 on: October 11, 2014, 03:42:26 PM »
There's a Methane 'Hot Spot' the Size of Delaware in the American Southwest


According to new satellite research from scientists at NASA and the University of Michigan, this "hot spot" is "responsible for producing the largest concentration of the greenhouse gas methane seen over the United States—more than triple the standard ground-based estimate." It is 2,500 square miles, about the size of Delaware....

.....Between 2003-2009, the region released 0.59 million metric tons of it into the atmosphere.

So why is Four Corners spewing out an apocalyptic amount of methane? Because of old, leaky-ass fossil fuel infrastructure, that's why. The hot spot predates fracking, the researchers say, so they've flagged "leaks in natural gas production and processing equipment in New Mexico's San Juan Basin, which is the most active coalbed methane production area in the country" as the culprit.



http://motherboard.vice.com/read/there-is-a-methane-hot-spot-the-size-of-delaware-in-the-american-southwest
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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #57 on: October 13, 2014, 05:22:56 PM »

Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #58 on: October 14, 2014, 10:14:40 AM »
Can we trust our politicians to save us from the greed of the richest ? the answer is clearly, no !
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/14/uk-to-allow-fracking-companies-to-use-any-substance-under-homes
« Last Edit: October 14, 2014, 11:07:49 AM by Laurent »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #59 on: October 15, 2014, 05:27:53 PM »
The linked MIT article makes the case that without large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), other measures—including rollouts of renewable and nuclear power—will not avert catastrophic climate effects in the coming century and beyond (see extracts from the article below):

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/531531/carbon-sequestration-too-little-too-late/

Extract: "Some sort of policy that would put a price on carbon emissions seems to be needed to drive CCS forward. Nothing is forcing the fossil-fuel industry’s hand, and the coal industry is loath to see more costs imposed on its product.

...

Meanwhile, the facts on the ground—and in the air—are quite grim. “So far, we have achieved almost nothing in terms of mitigation of emissions, which are tracking at the upper limit for future emission scenarios. Indeed, in the last decade the world economy has actually recarbonized—shifted back to coal,” says David Victor, professor of international relations and director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation at the University of California, San Diego."

The attached Keeling Atmospheric CO2 Curve measured at Mauna Loa emphasizes Professor Victor's point that despite a large amount of talk for well over 20 years, the bottom line is that the world remains on the BAU (slightly above the RCP 8.5) scenario for radiative forcing, and without a meaningful carbon pricing plan, society will not avoid serious consequences (such as billions of deaths between 2050 and 2100).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #60 on: October 15, 2014, 06:11:56 PM »
According to the linked article, in order to fight-off encroachment of its market Saudi Arabia has chosen to maintain high crude oil production rates that has caused oil prices to drop 23 percent between June 2014 and Oct 13 2014, and looks likely to drop still further (possibly to around $70 per barrel). This is forecast to promote energy inefficiencies and to reduce the rate of growth of renewable energy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/oil-prices-plunge-as-production-rises-fueling-concern-in-opec/2014/10/14/9bfd877c-53c9-11e4-892e-602188e70e9c_story.html

Extract: "With a weak global economy, the customary swing producer of oil — Saudi Arabia — has cut prices instead of cutting production, setting off a scramble on world markets. Crude oil prices have tumbled more than 23 percent since June, including a more than 4 percent drop Tuesday. Prices fell below four-year lows to wind up at $81.84 a barrel for the benchmark grade, West Texas Intermediate."

This relatively cheap crude oil will also likely stimulate global economic development; which will result in continued relatively high GHG emissions for some time to come.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #61 on: October 16, 2014, 01:44:34 AM »
More on the current OPEC oil price wars:

OPEC is resisting pressure to cut oil production while demand slumps as it tests how low prices must go to make U.S. shale oil unprofitable. As producers become more efficient, that floor is sinking.
...
About 2.6 million barrels of daily production, or 2.8 percent of global output, requires an oil price of $80 a barrel or more to be profitable, the IEA said. Only about 4 percent of U.S. shale output needs prices above that level, it said. Canadian synthetic oil projects are the most dependent on high prices, with about a quarter needing oil to remain above $80, the agency said.
...
Global oil consumption will expand by about 650,000 barrels a day this year to 92.7 million, the lowest growth since 2009 and about half the increase projected in June, the IEA said. OPEC boosted production in September, pumping 30.47 million barrels a day, the most since August 2013, the group said Oct. 10 in its latest monthly oil market report. Its next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 27 in Vienna.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/opec-finding-u-s-shale-harder-to-crack-as-rout-deepens.html
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Laurent

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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #63 on: October 17, 2014, 09:50:42 AM »
Court Files: Coal CEO Robert Murray Unearths Lease from Aubrey McClendon's New Fracking Company
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-horn/court-files-coal-ceo-robe_b_6000912.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

Elisabeth Radow, a New York-based attorney who examined a copy of the lease, told DeSmogBlog she believes the lease "has the effect of granting American Energy Partners the right to use the surface and subsurface to such a great extent that it takes away substantially all of the rights attributable to homeownership."

Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #64 on: October 18, 2014, 09:43:29 AM »

Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #65 on: October 20, 2014, 06:44:23 PM »

Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #66 on: October 21, 2014, 11:18:44 AM »
Intense Industry Pressure Causes E.U. To Stop Calling Tar Sands Dirty
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/07/3577033/europe-tar-sands-not-dirty/

Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #67 on: October 21, 2014, 08:55:12 PM »
US fossil fuel emissions rise despite Obama's new climate change push
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/21/us-fossil-fuel-obama-climate-change-energy-heat

Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #68 on: October 23, 2014, 04:03:00 PM »

Csnavywx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #69 on: October 24, 2014, 01:39:57 AM »
Former oil mogul confirmed as EU climate and energy commissioner
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/former-oil-mogul-confirmed-as-eu-climate-and-energy-commissioner

Absolutely no hope of any radical changes in the next years.
Amoung things Goldman Sacks control the European central bank and now this...


This kind of crap blows my mind. If it's your number one priority, why the hell would you accept a compromise like this? They say he "can't act on his own". That may be true, but the influence alone is negative.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #70 on: October 24, 2014, 09:44:12 PM »
Is Canada headed for a pipeline bubble?
More importantly though, I believe that in their haste to contain the scope of their analysis, the NEB has overlooked a key area of their responsibility—that of the needs assessment for the pipeline—in the context of national and global action on greenhouse gases.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/is-canada-headed-for-a-pipeline-bubble/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #71 on: October 25, 2014, 03:00:51 AM »
We need a managed and fair transition, not a massive oil shock which could plunge the already fuel-poor into further hardship and breed economic and social pandemonium. If today’s anti-oil social movements continue to strengthen, this could happen: through pressure from shareholders, the erosion of oil companies’ social licence, the physical disruption of operations by local resistance, the boom in renewable energy, and public pressure on governments to take more decisive climate action.

The oil majors will be forced to retreat, to shrink. Some will disappear completely. Perhaps there will be enough political will for states to step in and physically break them up, like Standard Oil. More likely in the short-term they will suffer painful economic shocks as their favourable terms of trade evaporate, dwindle rapidly as investors remove their capital to invest elsewhere, be asset-stripped by corporate raiders, and find themselves forced to transform or die, like so many obsolete industries before them.

However it happens, the oil majors will ultimately become oil minors, relinquishing their vice-like grip on the political process and making a much more diverse, decentralized and democratic energy future possible.

‘We will see the end of the oil companies in the rear-view mirror,’ predicts Big Oil’s long-term adversary James Marriott, who co-founded Platform over 30 years ago to monitor, expose, communicate and inspire creative resistance to the industry. ‘The last thing to disappear – like the smile on the Cheshire cat – will be the logos.’

http://newint.org/features/2014/11/01/extended-oil-keynote
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #72 on: October 25, 2014, 07:34:31 AM »
Can that graph possibly be correct?  About a 10% decrease from 2020 projected demand would keep climate change under control?

I must be reading the graph wrong or the graph is badly wrong. 

Perhaps a 10% cut by 2020 with following cuts in order to get CO2 down 40% to 70%  by 2050 is implied?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #73 on: October 27, 2014, 04:47:13 PM »
Per the following linked article (see extract), in an announcement on Sunday, Goldman Sachs estimates that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price could drop to as low as $70 per barrel by the second quarter of 2015; which would likely accelerate carbon emissions.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/oil-forecast-goldman-idINKBN0IG07J20141027

Extract: "Goldman analysts said in a report released late on Sunday that they expect U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI)crude to fall to $75 a barrel and Brent to $85 a barrel in the first quarter of 2015, both down $15 a barrel from their previous forecast.
WTI could fall as low as $70 in the second quarter and Brent as low as $80, when oversupply would be the most pronounced, before returning to first-quarter levels, Goldman said."

Furthermore today, following the Goldman Sachs announcement, Brent crude dropped to $85 per barrel, as indicated by the following linked article (see extract below):

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/markets-oil-idINKBN0IG05820141027

Extract: "Brent crude oil fell below $85 a barrel on Monday after Goldman Sachs slashed its price forecasts, citing abundant supply and lacklustre demand despite a pick-up in global economic growth."

Edit: Also today, the WTI crude price opened at $80 per barrel (see following link & extract):

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/wti-crude-tumbles-below-80-following-goldman-downgrade-cm406461

Extract: "Investing.com - West Texas Intermediate oil futures plunged below the key $80-a-barrel level on Monday, after Goldman Sachs slashed its 2015 price forecast, citing rising global supplies."

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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #74 on: October 27, 2014, 06:46:47 PM »
I don't trust anything the thieves at Sachs and their cohorts have to say. They are the biggest players in commodity futures, and every word outta their mouths is a lie, intended to game the market so as to maximize their profits. The legislation enabling banks and investment houses to play the oil markets was ramrodded through by their flunkies in office under cover of the recent recession.

Chris Cook over at eurotrib has excellent discussion on how oil futures are gamed. If you have a strong stomach, that is. He has some revealing asides on how to read Platt's.

Saudi has enuf reserve in tankage to pump for about three months. This is being done in a repeat of the Reagan years, to pressure Russia. Except this time the Russians have China bankrolling them. One of the greatest screwups the USA could have made is to drive those two powers closer together, effectively undoing all of Nixon's Chinese entente. That i think, will be seen as the second great strategic blunder by the USA in the space of a decade, the first of course, being the Iraq clusterfuck.

sidd

AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #75 on: October 27, 2014, 07:44:54 PM »
sidd,

My bottom line is that the only way to rein-in the unfair influence of people with power (power corrupts), is for 51% of the voting public to say that they have hade enough.  Until then, I believe that people with power (Goldman Sachs, Fossil Fuel Industry, Insurance Industry, etc) will keep us all on a BAU pathway, saying that it is necessary to keep our fragile global economy working.  Thus in my opinion society has a high probability of experiencing (or exceeding) a 4 C mean global surface temperature rise by 2050.

Best,
ASLR
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #76 on: October 29, 2014, 02:24:43 PM »
Texas Oil And Gas Companies Must Now Research An Area’s Earthquake History Before Drilling

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/28/3585530/texas-fracking-earthquake-rules/
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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #77 on: October 30, 2014, 09:16:27 AM »

Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #78 on: October 31, 2014, 09:55:12 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #79 on: November 03, 2014, 07:26:30 PM »
The battle over Burnaby Mountain heated up in a Vancouver courtroom.  Several residents were hastily served with legal notices -- some via Facebook -- claiming they have been interfering with Kinder Morgan's survey work.
“We’re hoping the City of Burnaby can [stop the pipeline] in the courts.  We’re hoping that the Tsleil Waututh Nation can do that through the courts.  Anything, anything except this pipeline,” said the literature professor.

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/news/kinder-morgan-serves-legal-papers-pipeline-opponent-facebook?page=0,0
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #80 on: November 03, 2014, 10:20:34 PM »
Venezuela begins to import oil, despite having the world's largest reserves, due to government mismanagement.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2014/11/02/venezuela/18243787/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #81 on: November 06, 2014, 02:10:46 AM »
Carbon Tracker report: 90 percent of Canadian tar sands investments need oil prices above $95 a barrel to make economic sense.

"The report was based on prices for Brent crude, which are slightly higher than the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate price. (Tar sand crude, in turn, trades at a discount to WTI.) In trading on Tuesday, WTI touched $75 briefly and closed at $77."

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20141105/oil-prices-erode-tar-sands-become-riskier-investments
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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #82 on: November 11, 2014, 10:15:52 AM »
« Last Edit: November 11, 2014, 10:26:47 AM by Laurent »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #83 on: November 14, 2014, 08:12:12 PM »
Act of desperation?  Or, a belief they are running out of time to find and extract oil they soon won't be allowed to burn.
Royal Dutch Shell attempt to start an office of pre-crime will not be getting off the ground, the United States 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled.

Whether or not the oil giant was inspired by Minority Report — the Tom Cruise scifi film where law officers use advanced methods to arrest people for crimes they have yet to commit — is unknown. But they certainly tried to ape the model. Two years ago, Shell preemptively sued a raft of environmental groups in an effort to cut them off from suing the company to derail its plans to drill in the arctic. On Wednesday, the court dryly called Shell’s legal strategy “novel,” and then threw it out as unconstitutional, the Los Angeles Times reported. (Roughly the same thing ultimately happened in the movie.)

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/14/3592496/shell-oil-pre-crime-lawsuit/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #84 on: November 16, 2014, 03:24:19 PM »
Quick video clip from CNBC's "Squawk Box" about IEA saying low oil & gas prices mean "a new chapter" for the industry.  One analyst has finally "thrown in the towel" on natural gas; the program has "run out of people" to talk about it.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000330340
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #85 on: November 16, 2014, 04:34:23 PM »
And here's the CNBC article.
It is increasingly clear that we have begun a new chapter in the history of the oil markets," it said. "Economic development no longer spurs oil demand growth as it once did, especially in the absence of wage gains."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102185253
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #86 on: November 16, 2014, 10:49:47 PM »
An infrastructure company leaves Germany because of gas and coal.  And that's a good thing.

One sentence spoken by Bilfinger’s CEO Herbert Bodner really says it all (report in German): “We have to focus on countries where coal still has a future.” Bilfinger is an infrastructure builder, a bit like Halliburton in the US. The company also builds power plants, and the downturn in demand for both gas turbines and coal plants in Germany has left the company high and dry. In the first three quarters of 2014, it posted a loss after nearly 100 million euros in the first three quarters of the previous year.

http://www.renewablesinternational.net/first-industrial-firm-leaves-germany/150/537/83308/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #87 on: November 26, 2014, 03:06:31 AM »
Dropping Oil Prices And Sanctions Are Hurting Russia To The Tune Of $140 Billion
Arctic drilling becoming uneconomical.
In US, Wall Street projects a price of $75/barrel for oil in 2015.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/25/3596403/russia-oil-prices-sanctions-140-billion/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #88 on: November 28, 2014, 02:45:47 PM »
OPEC's decision to not cut oil output will weigh on the stock market this morning.

Nov 28, 8:30am
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.40. U.S. equity futures continue facing modest pressure with the S&P 500 futures three points below fair value. The few participants who are getting ready for today's session have not received any economic data or earnings of note. With that in mind, the energy sector is likely to be today's focal point after OPEC's decision to leave production quotas unchanged.

That news has weighed on crude oil, which has been trying to pare its losses. The energy component has been able to add about 50 cents from yesterday's low, but remains down 5.9% at $69.31/bbl. This has led to early weakness in major energy names like Chevron (CVX 111.60, -3.51), EOG Resources (EOG 89.00, -5.07), ExxonMobil (XOM 91.17, -3.31), and Halliburton (HAL 44.97, -2.37).

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/popuppages/articlepopup.aspx?articleId=SI2014112808295701
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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #89 on: November 29, 2014, 11:47:24 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #90 on: November 29, 2014, 04:00:14 PM »
Nigeria's economy is tanking as its oil exports to U.S. have ceased.
The big fat zero was a milestone not only on the United States' journey toward energy independence, but a signpost pointing to a new world. With it, Nigeria became the first formerly flush oil producer to essentially lose its entire share of the U.S. market, leaving it scrambling for new customers, less able to fund its internal war on terror and less important to the U.S.

"Nigeria is facing a sea change in relations with the United States, a sea change in its geopolitical position in the world," says Peter Pham, director of the Africa Program at the Atlantic Council, searching for words to capture the magnitude of the moment.

Experts are just beginning to sort through the implications of the U.S. switching from being the biggest single consumer of petroleum to a producer and - eventually perhaps - a competitor. They see Nigeria, which generates 70 percent of its budget from oil sales, as a test case that may hold important clues about how other oil-rich nations like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Russia will react as their oil-driven economies come under additional pressure.

"The collapse of the price of oil brought on by the rise in American production is fundamentally changing the world," said John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and now director of the Ralph Bunche Center at the Council on Foreign Relations. "This energy shift is akin to the collapse of the Soviet Union in its foreign policy implications."

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/needle-zero-nigerias-economy-tanking-u-s-oil-exports-dry-n256236
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #91 on: November 29, 2014, 05:47:49 PM »
A collection of comments about the effects of the current oil price drop.
This is a sampler of the increasingly confused and borderline panicky reactions around the world to the plunging price of oil.   Intensely interesting puzzle emerging, as temporary price drops tease consumers, but more thoughtful observers see grave danger for producers, and the economies that are too reliant on them.

One example:
The financial press is reacting. Barrons, below, not known as a starry eyed promoter of sustainable futures, asks if oil may be accelerating its own decline.
Key phrase: “Volatility sells Teslas“.

Barrons:

The price of oil is plunging–and the shares of producers with it–after Opec decided not to cut production yesterday. Wolfe Research’s Paul Sankey and team think this is the beginning of the end for oil:

This is going to be volatile, and we can’t understand how that helps the Saudis. Volatility sells Teslas (TSLA). There seemed to be a clear degree of irritation in Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi’s comments to the crush of journalists; as ever, he had front run his position: no real cut because as he said, he expects the market “to stabilise itself eventually“. He is wrong…

We don’t think that global oil demand will significantly react to lower oil prices, and thus we think the market will clear at the point of US supply growth destruction. That will take six months to work through, at which point we will likely hit a significant slowdown in US oil production growth, falling Russian production, deteriorating OPEC member stability – notably in Venezuela, Nigeria, and of course Libya – and rising global demand. So we go low, to storage economics (likely $50/bbl WTI) in Q1 2015 and then squeeze supply. And then we squeeze radically higher. As a result, the world accelerates its move away from oil. The conclusion will be, OPEC, like Rockefeller, ultimately damned itself.

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/29/the-weekend-wonk-with-coal-on-the-ropes-is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-oil/

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #92 on: November 29, 2014, 10:11:43 PM »
Crude Oil Drops Below $66
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for January delivery tumbled below $66 a barrel on Friday and closed at $66.15, down 10.5%, the lowest settlement in five years. Brent crude slipped 3.4% in London to close at $70.15 after briefly falling below $70 a barrel.
...

Globally there is also the increasing focus on climate change and the damage to the planet caused by carbon dioxide emissions. There is reason to believe that concerns about climate change and energy use are far more likely to last than they were 40 years ago when President Jimmy Carter encouraged everyone to turn the heat down and put on a sweater.

The Saudis recognize that oil prices have to fall now and they believe that they are in the best position to be the last man standing if prices dive and stay down for a reasonably long period of time, say 18 months to 2 years. Crude prices will have to rise again as exploration and development slow down because low prices cut off capital funding. Gradually, supply will drop below demand and prices will begin to rise again. But how far and how fast are the big questions.

 http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2014/11/29/crude-oil-drops-below-66/



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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #93 on: November 30, 2014, 01:35:36 AM »
Crude prices will have to rise again as exploration and development slow down because low prices cut off capital funding. Gradually, supply will drop below demand and prices will begin to rise again. But how far and how fast are the big questions.

A rapid increase a couple of years from now should be extremely good for EVs. 

Battery prices are likely to be down.  We should have 200 mile range EVs for $35k or less.  That's likely to push a lot of people off oil and onto electricity.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #94 on: December 02, 2014, 04:24:37 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #95 on: December 02, 2014, 09:19:10 PM »
The Bank of England is conducting an investigation into the risk of an economic crash if fossil fuel companies were prevented from using their coal, oil and gas assets because of climate change considerations.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-england-investigating-risk-of-carbon-bubble-1.2856241
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #96 on: December 02, 2014, 10:00:00 PM »
TransCanada Corp. (TRP) is putting on hold studies for the Cacouna oil export terminal in Quebec as part of its proposed Energy East pipeline project after a nearby beluga whale population was assessed as endangered.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/transcanada-halts-terminal-work-as-beluga-seen-endangered.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #97 on: December 03, 2014, 03:40:30 AM »
The Bank of England is conducting an investigation into the risk of an economic crash if fossil fuel companies were prevented from using their coal, oil and gas assets because of climate change considerations.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-england-investigating-risk-of-carbon-bubble-1.2856241


Anyone investigating how much the BofE has invested in fossil fuels and how many board members they have in common?

Csnavywx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #98 on: December 03, 2014, 06:19:31 PM »
Crude prices will have to rise again as exploration and development slow down because low prices cut off capital funding. Gradually, supply will drop below demand and prices will begin to rise again. But how far and how fast are the big questions.

A rapid increase a couple of years from now should be extremely good for EVs. 

Battery prices are likely to be down.  We should have 200 mile range EVs for $35k or less.  That's likely to push a lot of people off oil and onto electricity.

His statement about capital expenditures is only partially true, though. New tech not only helps renewables, but fossil fuel extraction as well. Production costs have dropped significantly in just the past few years, and secondary/tertiary oil extraction tech companies have boomed.

My bottom line is that the assumption that <$70-80/barrel oil would kill these fracking companies or induce OPEC to cut significantly just haven't panned out. There was quite a bit of profit margin to be had in the first place and there's still quite a bit of room left for a price war to keep market share.

To be sure, the price will eventually come back up. But again, as we're seeing now, the best cure for high prices is high prices.

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #99 on: December 03, 2014, 11:45:38 PM »

......
My bottom line is that the assumption that <$70-80/barrel oil would kill these fracking companies or induce OPEC to cut significantly just haven't panned out. There was quite a bit of profit margin to be had in the first place and there's still quite a bit of room left for a price war to keep market share.
....


You're coming to this conclusion a bit too soon.  Give it some time.  Should global production stay high (and it is not right to blame this all on OPEC as the US could cut production just as easily as anyone - in fact since our production is of higher cost cost a rational argument would swing that direction) there will be a blood bath in the oil industry sometime in 2015.

I note that about a year ago I predicted such a shakeout in mid-2015 and we are right on track.  Production costs when looked at by those not getting their salary in some fashion from the companies being looked have shown consistently the very high costs of the fracking operations as well as the dramatic depletion numbers.  While some spin the news such as the optimism pundits  throwing out numbers indicating that only a small percentage of frackers in places like ND are operating at a loss the real numbers are certainly over 50% at the current WTI price.  In addition the drillers are well down the stack of their options from the top prospects and well into the mediocre ones.  Thus more dry holes, smaller discoveries and quicker depletion.. and thus higher costs are all they have to look forward too. 

Many of the fracking operators in ND who have made millions for their owners and various original investors have never made any profit from selling oil.   They have made their money from effective promotion of 'discoveries' which boosted stock prices which they then capitalized on.  This is a common tactic in the oil business and has been perfected well over the last 70 years.

The debt issues associated with large percentages of these companies are significant and potentially catastrophic.  They are deep in debt... deep... and only access to continuing funds can keep them afloat.  It is going to get much harder to find the suckers willing to give them the money if prices stay low.  They would never have gotten this money if the return on investments was so horrible and the big money folks were desperately looking for someplace to put it.  There is a huge classic bubble in this business (a periodic thing in the oil business as I have seen at least 3 of them) and we are following the standard step by step path to the next crash.  And it is going to crash and many will get hammered.

What the Saudi's are doing is merely effective capitalism.  They would be stupid to cut production. They have a host of weak competitors (not just American but we are certainly very vulnerable) and they are doing the smart thing and setting up to smash them flat.  Unless we can pressure them into changing their tactics (we have a lot less leverage with them than we did 20 years ago) they are going to wipe out a bunch of their competitors and gain market share.  Yes prices will eventually rise again as that is the Saudi plan of course, but the damage to our real interests (I am assuming that our real interest is trying to halt the worsening of climate change) are going to be very significant. To wit:

Very cheap oil and gas will promote much greater consumption of same.
It makes fossil fuels more competitive with alternative energies.
Purchasing of large trucks and SUV's is already dramatically increasing (up about 30% overall already in the US).  This of course is a long term buy in of such wasteful technology.
Purchasing of hybrids and electrics will likely slow or stagnate as they become much less competitive.
It dramatically raises the prospects of Keystone approval as Canadian Tar sands production will also be really hurt by this situation and the argument will be made that costs "must" be lowered by getting that oil out of rail-cars and into more efficient pipelines.
It significantly lowers the cost of producing and shipping coal.
It will will devastate the economies of a number of countries hanging on the edge with all the attendant fall out that that entails; examples being Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola and the like.
I won't even go into what the effects of our latest election will have when combined with this situation.

At least I can still laugh about the insanity of our various BAU cultures :)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/opec-policy-ensures-u-s-shale-crash-russian-oil-tycoon-says.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-might-get-the-last-laugh-on-oil-2014-11-28

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/01/saudi-arabia-declares-oil-war-on-us-fracking-hits-railroads-tank-car-makers-canada-russia-sinks-venezuela/

http://online.wsj.com/articles/opecs-war-wont-be-all-over-by-christmas-heard-on-the-street-1417463235?mod=rss_most_viewed_day_asia

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/oil-at-40-possible-as-market-transforms-caracas-to-iran.html

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2014/11/a-glut-of-oil



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