Next couple of months will likely be a "rough ride" in the oil and gas markets (AND....the stock market).
NOBOBY really "knows" what is going on in China. One thing for sure....is that "rail car activity" in the US has slowed appreciably over the past couple of months (year over year....not just the usual seasonal slowdown). Although...surprisingly...."intermodal activity" is actually UP slightly over last year. Intermodal.....is the "containers" that are shipped worldwide and transition between trucks and ships. Most consumer goods are included in "intermodal".
The BIG DROPS were in coal and petroleum products (heavy oil from the tar sands in Canada would be part of that big drop in petro products).
Here is a few paragraphs from the report (link at the bottom):
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Three of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2015. They were miscellaneous carloads, up 21.4 percent to 8,437 carloads; motor vehicles and parts, up 2.8 percent to 16,751 carloads; and chemicals, up 2.2 percent to 31,687 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2015 included coal, down 32.6 percent to 75,308 carloads; metallic ores and metals, down 24.2 percent to 18,690 carloads; and petroleum and petroleum products, down 18.5 percent to 12,852 carloads.
For the first 2 weeks of 2016, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 481,891 carloads, down 15.1 percent from the same point last year; and 522,702 intermodal units, up 4.2 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 2 weeks of 2016 was 1,004,593 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 6 percent compared to last year.
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Also note....in the US, jobless claims increased by 10,000. Most economic numbers in the US point towards a continued "slowing" in the economy. Whether that gets us to a "technical" recession in future weeks and months.....is unknown of course. I suspect that we will be CLOSE if not actually IN a MILD recession in future months in the US.
Russia is an absolute economic mess....ditto for Brazil.....and in China nobody knows for sure (other than it is slowing down). Not a great backdrop for commodities....as they continue to get hammered.
Frackers are going to have a rough first half to the year....