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Adam Ash

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1700 on: August 28, 2017, 09:14:47 PM »
Yay, another argument of the form "renewables can't possibly work because there just isn't enough magic pixie dust to feed all the unicorns you'd need for a 100% unicorn-rainbow-fart harnessing solution."
Very true!
I wish we could replace 50% of oil and gas production/consumption by RE, but you are right.  There just isn't enough pixie dust.  Thanks. 

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1701 on: August 28, 2017, 09:43:45 PM »
I see the oil and gas companies are hiring people to do some blogging for them.  Maybe Saudi Aramco and the investment banks are trying to keep oil from taking further so they can get the IPO off the ground in 2018.

I like that the KochHeads are trying to bash renewables...while trying to push oil and gas.  Those KochHeads....they will do or say anything for O & G.🙄

« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 10:10:38 PM by Buddy »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1702 on: August 28, 2017, 10:01:47 PM »
Adam looks like he's going to be a renewable energy denier in the mold of climate change deniers.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1703 on: August 28, 2017, 10:10:04 PM »
Oil falls but gasoline jumps as Tropical Storm Harvey hits U.S. refiners
U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 3 percent on Monday but gasoline prices surged to two-year highs as Tropical Storm Harvey kept hammering the U.S. Gulf Coast, knocking out several refineries which backed up crude supplies and disrupted fuel production.

Massive floods caused by the storm forced refineries in the area to close. In turn, U.S. crude futures fell as the refinery shutdowns could reduce demand for American crude.

"The reduced inputs to those Gulf refineries will result in an increase in crude inventories," said Tony Headrick, energy market analyst at CHS Hedging, "That outweighs the outages in crude oil production from the storm."

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down $1.48 or 3.1 percent to 46.39 at 1:31 p.m. EDT (1731 GMT) Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 70 cents or 1.3 percent at $51.71 per barrel. ...
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/oil-falls-but-gasoline-jumps-as-harvey-hits-us-refiners-20170828-00694
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1704 on: August 28, 2017, 11:03:52 PM »
A mere 3% down is brownian motion. Consider this stock has the same change:
https://www.google.com/finance?ei=B4SkWZGYEsP9sAH0lJzwAQ&q=adsk

It's for a company that makes software used in construction industry. Pay me to talk on TV and I'll carefully explain how Friday's spike and today's dive are related to the storm. (Actually I won't, I don't need money that badly.)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1705 on: August 29, 2017, 01:42:08 AM »
Places with around 100% renewable electricity
The following places meet 90% or more of their average yearly electricity demand with renewable energy
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100%25_renewable_energy#Places_with_around_100.25_renewable_electricity
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Adam Ash

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1706 on: August 29, 2017, 05:33:23 AM »
Adam looks like he's going to be a renewable energy denier in the mold of climate change deniers.
I assure you that Adam wishes with a passion that a truly RE future is available to us all in a way which will avoid any further degradation of our planet's ability to sustain life. 

I live in a place with a population of 1.1 million which gets 98.2% of its electricity from hydro and the remainder from wind.  Same place also consumes about 20,000 bbl of oil per day, and a bit of coal for industrial and domestic purposes.  I can see from my kitchen window the high tension power lines running from a hydro station which serve an aluminium smelter.  Those lines carry enough wattage to power all our nation's transport systems - allowing for a change from fossil to RE if we wanted to.  We should want to, but current government policy does not pursue that option. Yet.

A big problem with increasing RE is that the low fruit is already stripped bare.  There is very little unutilised hydro capacity where more RE is needed, so new RE will have to be solar and wind with its attendant EROI and resourcing issues.

Believe me, I will be so happy to be proven wrong.  We have few enough resources to apply to the required transition away from carbon-emitting energy sources, and we have virtually run out of time to keep peak temperature change below 3C let alone below 2C.  So it is essential that every claim on these limited resources which is supposed to be the Great White Hope for our Salvation is tested rigorously (at a level far above my pay grade) to ensure that it will have the desired outcome, and it will not just pander to some politically-correct ideology. 

USA's ethanol production is an example of a huge scheme with a negative EROI and a vast drain of state funds by way of subsidies to support the Roundup-ready GMO corn industry.  I am not convinced yet that conventional solar and wind do well enough to justify the investment. 

Instead, as I have said before, the only viable path is to continue with the build of non-hydro-RE from its present low base without expecting it to grow from its present 2% contribution to anything like 30% to 50% of total energy production (but, if its proven to be sensible, every little will help), to pursue what ever hydro options we can without trashing the environment, and to get into massive demand destruction to reduce the fossil-fuelled component of the global energy supply.

Greenpeace emailed me yesterday asking me to 'Join the fight against Big Oil'.  I replied:
'I WILL NOT JOIN THE FIGHT AGAINST BIG OIL.
I will join the fight against mom and pop who consume big oil, and industry too.  We can only do this by reducing demand.  Reduce demand and big oil will wither on the vine.
You must focus on demand destruction, not on attempting to kill the supply side.'


That concludes my case.  I will leave you in peace!  Thank you.

wili

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1707 on: August 29, 2017, 06:12:08 AM »
Adam, do you happen to have any professional or other connections to the ff industry that you would care to share?

(I do agree with you about demand destruction, by the way.)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1708 on: August 29, 2017, 07:49:35 AM »
A big problem with increasing RE is that the low fruit is already stripped bare.  There is very little unutilised hydro capacity where more RE is needed, so new RE will have to be solar and wind with its attendant EROI and resourcing issues.

You're saying that the low fruit is already stripped bare without defining what the low fruit is and how you know that is has been stripped bare.   I assume from the next sentence that you assume hydro is the low (hanging) fruit.

Has hydro been stripped bare everywhere?  Not everywhere, the US has quite a bit that could be brought online without building any new dams.  Just convert existing dams and install run of the river.

ERoEi issues.  Did you not even bother to read the info I gave you on wind and solar ERoEI?  It seems that you didn't.

Resourcing issues?  There are no resource issues for wind and solar in terms of supply or materials.  Geothermal and biofuel are limited in terms of resource but not materials.


the only viable path is to continue with the build of non-hydro-RE from its present low base without expecting it to grow from its present 2% contribution to anything like 30% to 50% of total energy production

There is absolutely no question that the world can totally power itself (electricity, transportation, and heat) with non-hydro RE.  If you don't understand that then you need to some very basic reading about the incredible amount of solar and wind energy at our disposal.  Roughly, more solar energy strikes the Earth in one hour than the world uses in one year.  There's well more than 8,000x  the amount of energy we need.

We have thousands of times more renewable energy than we need.  We have the technology to turn that energy into electricity.  And we have the technology to store energy so that we can have 24/365 electricity.

There are three tasks left for us....

1) Install renewable generation and storage much faster than we now are so that we have a decent chance of keeping global temperature increases below 2C.

2) Invent and develop even better generation and storage technology so the job becomes faster and cheaper.

3) Figure out some way to re-sequester some of the carbon we've already put into our atmosphere and oceans.

(Efficiency and demand decrease will make the job easier, but the real job is to cease using fossil fuels.)

Adam Ash

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1709 on: August 29, 2017, 08:07:25 AM »
Adam, do you happen to have any professional or other connections to the ff industry that you would care to share?

(I do agree with you about demand destruction, by the way.)
Wili: I am not protecting the ff industry at all.  I am a staunch advocate of destruction of demand for all fossil fuels (which will hardly endear me to any ff board or share holder), while being desperately opposed to wasting increasingly scarce resources and money on development of alternative energy sources which could lead us up blind alleys, wasting precious time and resources as we go. 

A persistent feature of mankind's nature is that people will turn a profit where they can find it - and externalise costs to their operations where they can.  So while there is a market for ff - a demand - some mindless prat will seek to fill that demand and make a buck regardless of any social or environmental downsides.

So we can in turn shut down every fossil fuel provider over the whole planet, but others will spring up in their wake to fill the gap in the supply market UNLESS demand for their ff product is eliminated by some combination of demand destruction (as I strongly advocate) and replacement with alternative sources of energy which are proven to yield an adequate return on investment by society when measured honestly and holistically.

What is getting folks backs up here (as far as I can gather) is that I express the heretical view that maybe wind, solar and the associated infrastructure needed to condition power from those sources for use may not be a net gain for society if we attempt to deploy it at scale (i.e. orders of magnitude greater than today).  Until such technologies are robustly (clear of lobbying and political influence) proven to provide a net gain the only 'safe' path in the short term is vigorous demand destruction. 

I don't see any danger in this approach.  Demand destruction - 'Negawatts' - has a low cost and an eternal cost-free return and positive environmental and social outcomes.  However, developing and installing replacement energy technologies which are not proven to provide a net gain (in our desired direction) are much more dangerous, as they may be leading us up the wrong creek.

So sure, potter on with wind and solar, but most of our efforts should be focused on controlling and reducing demand for oil, 'natural' gas and coal.

Bob: I appreciate your points. 

The mere fact that wind and solar are being incorporated into global energy systems is not proof that it is sensible to do so.  It merely proves their technical viability.  It is near impossible to find our way through the vast web of interconnected subsidies which are provided for all sorts of energy supply to even discern the true global economic worth of these systems, let alone to discern the overall return on the effort of creating and sustaining them.  This return must be positive or it is all a waste of time.  But if we want to persist with these alternatives then those issues must be addressed.  I don't think they have been.

I note that in your list of things to be done you do not mention demand destruction.  Why not?  Given that Negawatts do not pose any risk to uptake of whatever RE systems we can deploy which prove to be viable (from a full accounting perspective) is there a reason why Negawtts are not top of your list?

wili

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1710 on: August 29, 2017, 08:11:32 AM »
"...most of our efforts should be focused on controlling and reducing demand for oil, 'natural' gas and coal"

Again, I do agree with this. But I also blame FF companies more than I do consumers, just as I blame pushers more than the addicts they manage to get hooked on their product.

Any ideas how to push an agenda of reduced consumption? I've been trying to model it, but few of even my most enlightened friends and family seem to be following my lead.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1711 on: August 29, 2017, 04:45:52 PM »
Adam, let's consider the typical person.  The person who might think that we need to do something to oppose climate change (a large majority do) but they aren't willing to make sacrifices, lower their lifestyle in order to create the sort of demand decay you envision.

Those of us who have been advocating for a greener world have been trying to get people to change their lifestyles and "reduce, reuse, recycle"  and all that good stuff for decades.  My (modest) involvement goes back to the 1960s.  Let's face it, our success has been very small.

We need to be very honest with ourselves.  We will not get enough people to "give up their cars and walk/bike" or do anything else that is more than a mild change from how they now live.  People want to live a "good" life and won't be willing to make hard changes until it will be too late to stop 3C+.

So, what to do?  The answer is actually simple.  We don't change how people live.  We just switch out some things they use with other things that are as good (or better) and cost no more (or less) than what they are commonly using.

People want to use about 30 kWh of electricity in their house per day.  If that electricity was carbon free (and didn't have any significant detrimental impact) then using ~30 kWh per day would be no problem.

People want to drive about 1,000 miles per month.  If that driving didn't use fossil fuels but low carbon energy there would be no problem.

People want to eat meat.  If we could get the carbon out of cattle food production and eliminate livestock methane there would be no problem.

Now, we have a lot of the solutions we need. 

We can generate all the electricity we want using renewable energy inputs.  And the cost for electricity will drop.

We can change out oil-burning vehicles with battery powered vehicles charged with renewable electricity.  The cost of purchasing and operating a vehicle will drop.

We're making progress with lab grown meat.  It's not clear that we will be successful but it seems very likely.  Meat for a lower price. 

Those are the basics of our best solution for avoiding extreme climate change.

Find better, cheaper, low carbon substitutes. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1712 on: August 30, 2017, 04:02:23 AM »
"Houston is the heart of the nation’s fossil fuels industry, making the discussion of climate change post-Hurricane Harvey particularly relevant. The Texas state government has been widely criticized for being beholden to oil industry interests."

How Texas Lawmakers Failed To Plan For Climate Change And Harvey Floods
With rising sea levels and increased rainfall, experts agree, climate change made the flooding from Hurricane Harvey far worse than it would have been even a decade ago. The Texas legislature had multiple opportunities to create a “climate adaptation plan” that could have resulted in preparations, but the bills were killed every time. The sponsor of the legislation told International Business Times that former Texas Gov. Rick Perry made sure that the climate adaptation bills would not pass.

“When I filed that legislation, then-Governor Perry’s legislative staff told me that no legislation that had climate change in it would get out of committee,” former Texas state representative Lon Burnam told IBT. “They came to our office and said to stop filing these bills:  ‘We’ll never let it out of committee.’”

Houston is the heart of the nation’s fossil fuels industry, making the discussion of climate change post-Hurricane Harvey particularly relevant. The Texas state government has been widely criticized for being beholden to oil industry interests. Campaign finance records bear out that claim: Over the last two election cycles, Texas state lawmakers have received more than $11.3 million from the oil and gas industry, including $2.3 million for Texas State House Speaker Joe Straus. Former Gov. Perry, now Donald Trump’s Secretary of Energy, received more than $1.6 million from the oil and gas industry during his very brief 2016 presidential run. As governor of Texas, he received more than $10 million across three elections, including $6 million in the 2010 race. ...
http://www.ibtimes.com/political-capital/how-texas-lawmakers-failed-plan-climate-change-harvey-floods-2583983
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1713 on: August 30, 2017, 02:33:20 PM »
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/08/carbon-neutral-synthetic-fuel-a-dream-for-car-makers-facing-tighter-standards/

A last-ditch effort to sustain the ICE: car-part manufacturer Bosch proposes synthetic fuels from renewable energy to fuel passenger cars.

The energy round-trip right now for that solution, starting with concentrated CO2 input is 3 kWh electricity to produce 1 kWh of diesel, which produces in turn about 0.2 kWh of motive power. Concentrating the CO2 takes yet more energy.

So, rather than switch to battery-based cars, we'd need to fully decarbonize the electricity supply and then build a bunch more, all because it's theoretically hard to build EVs and outdoor plugs.

It reeks of desperation.

The more serious point is that air-to-liquids would be nice for some niche uses, but it's going to be expensive gasoline.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1714 on: August 30, 2017, 04:31:24 PM »
The oil and gas industry is desperate...and they are now figuring out that ICE's are going to be toast a LOT sooner than expected.

There won't be many NEW ICE cars sold after 2025.  There won't be many new ICE pickup trucks sold after 2030 or sooner. And there won't be many new ICE semi trucks sold after 2035.

Now I understand what the "buggy industry" felt like as the model T wiped them out.  Or Kodak when digital cameras wiped them out.

Saudi Arabia is now wishing they would have started the IPO process 5 years earlier.  And the investment banks are going to have to be at their lying best to bring Saudi Aramco public next year.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 05:42:57 PM by Buddy »
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1715 on: August 30, 2017, 05:37:42 PM »

Saudi Arabia is now wishing they would have started the IPO process 5 years earlier.  And the investment banks are going to have to be there at their lying best to bring Saudi Aramco public next year.
And the Pentagon may wish that they had left the Middle East alone during the past few decades, rather than investing $Trillions to assure American access to foreign oil, an asset that is rapidly losing it's value.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1716 on: August 30, 2017, 06:31:00 PM »
Wonder what would have happened to Europe's supply of oil?

The US could probably have gotten by with US and Mexican oil.  Sourced some from South America.



TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1717 on: August 30, 2017, 07:50:50 PM »
Wonder what would have happened to Europe's supply of oil?

The US could probably have gotten by with US and Mexican oil.  Sourced some from South America.


Are you implying that the US went through all it did for altruistic reasons?


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1718 on: August 30, 2017, 08:47:25 PM »
No.  But I am implying that many other countries probably benefitted without contributing to the cost.


rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1719 on: August 30, 2017, 10:21:42 PM »
When Russia Finally Hops On Shale Bandwagon, OPEC Is Finished

U.S. sanctions are slowing down the Russian development of shale oil and gas reserves, but once they get there they may fundamentally change the supply picture. With costs based in rubles, they may be able to break even at a much lower level than the U.S. China will be happy to have the oil and gas delivered by pipeline rather than riskier ships through the Malacca Straits.

With Chinese fracking expanding rapidly, together with gains in the use of renewables, China+Russia could end up being self sufficient in oil and gas. With North America and South America also self-sufficient it will only be Europe and India that need oil and gas imports. The Middle East could be rapidly running out of customers on a demand and a supply basis.

"Because of Bazhenov, Russia is home to the second largest shale oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 74.6 billion barrels versus 78.2 billion in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Worth noting, China is in third place with an estimated 32.2 billion barrels under there, so considering China has money to burn and has already figured out how to rival U.S. nuclear energy (sorry, Westinghouse), China can figure out how to do its own water and sand-hogging horizontal drilling to get to the shale in its rocks. And they can share what they know with the Russians. China wants to reduce its use of coal. Powering its factories with natural gas is an obvious option."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/29/when-russia-finally-hops-on-shale-bandwagon-opec-is-finished/#4971614d1af0

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1720 on: August 31, 2017, 03:27:26 AM »
Oil Traders Grab Gasoline Tankers to Restock Hurricane Harvey-Hit U.S.
- Fuel flows from Europe double since Harvey made landfall
- Impact of Hurricane Harvey extends to global oil markets
Oil traders are rushing to book tankers to haul European gasoline across the Atlantic Ocean as Hurricane Harvey transforms the global market for refined fuels.

Traders booked 20 tankers to load European fuels to the U.S. since Harvey made landfall on Aug. 26, according to charter lists compiled by Bloomberg. The rate of bookings is about double the average for August. Most cargoes are 37,000 metric tons each. Shipbrokers said cargo flows to New York will be the highest since November, when a pipeline blast curbed inflows from the Gulf of Mexico.

Harvey, now a tropical storm, has brought torrential rain and the collapse of levees, dams and drains. It’s also knocked out almost a quarter of U.S. refining capacity, of which more than half is in the Gulf of Mexico region. That in turn has lowered domestic crude prices, since fewer plants are able to process it, while simultaneously restricting the supplies of fuel like gasoline and diesel. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-08-30/oil-traders-grab-gasoline-tankers-to-restock-harvey-hit-u-s


Senator Ed Markey:  #Harvey has caused refinery outages & spikes in gas prices. I'm calling on Trump to tap the [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] to protect consumers
https://t.co/2qoM8w4yeV?amp=1

https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/902963791419379712
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1721 on: August 31, 2017, 03:46:21 AM »
Americans Red and Blue Unite Against Trump's Plan to Drill the Atlantic
Not even the Republican governors who supported him are willing to get behind it.
President Trump, to put it mildly, hasn’t worked too hard to bring Democrats and Republicans together on many issues. By almost any account, the partisan divide in this country today is wider than it’s been in living memory, certainly wider than it was before he took office.

But on one issue, at least, the president seems to have bridged that divide and fostered some much-needed unity. When it comes to endorsing Trump’s plan to open up the Atlantic coast to oil and gas drilling, citizens in both red and blue states—as well as their elected officials—are speaking with one voice.

They’re saying, “Hell, no.” ...
https://www.nrdc.org/onearth/americans-red-and-blue-unite-against-trump-over-his-plan-drill-atlantic
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1722 on: August 31, 2017, 04:21:44 PM »
Electrification Alone Will Save 42 Percent Of World Energy Demand, Stanford Prof Says
If humans can kick fossil-fuels, they will benefit from massive efficiency increases in every sector—a net savings of 42 percent of world energy use that will both derive from and ease the transition to clean energy, a Stanford University professor says in a video released this week.

The video followed the release of a roadmap in which Stanford's Mark Z. Jacobsen and 26 colleagues from Stanford, Berkeley, Berlin and Denmark demonstrate how 139 countries could rely on 100 percent wind, water and solar renewables by 2050. In the video, Jacobsen rebuts the common notion that renewables are not up to the task of meeting world energy demand.

"We find that by electrifying everything in these countries and by providing that electricity with clean renewable energy, power demand goes down about 42 percent without really changing much habit," says Jacobsen, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and director of Stanford's Atmosphere/Energy Program. For example:


About 13 percent of all energy worldwide is used to mine, transport and refine fossil fuels, so the elimination of fossil fuels immediately provides a savings of 13 percent. Jacobsen includes the mining of uranium in this calculation, envisioning a future in which renewables also replace nuclear power.

About 23 percent of energy use will be saved because electric power is more efficient than combustion. An electric car, for example, uses about 85 percent of the energy in its battery to move the car, with the rest lost as waste heat. A gasoline powered car only uses 17 to 20 percent of its energy to move the car, with the rest lost as waste heat. So the transport sector alone could see massive improvements in efficiency, Jacobsen says, of up to 80 percent. Across other sectors, including heating and heat pumps, the savings are smaller, but still enough to save 23 percent of the world's energy use.
...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2017/08/31/electrification-alone-will-save-42-percent-of-world-energy-demand-stanford-prof-says/


Electrek says:
It seems like we’ll still mine oil for plastic, coal we might start mining for rare earth elements, and natural gas we could still use for fertilizer feedback – so maybe it won’t be the full 13% of fossil fuel mining that we save…and wouldn’t our mining of metals have to increase if we build huge solar/wind farms? Either way, pretty interesting that 13% of our energy in general, is simply for making the world’s energy.
https://electrek.co/2017/08/31/50680/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1723 on: August 31, 2017, 04:43:53 PM »
We might use some oil and coal (?) for industrial feedstock but as long as we don't burn the products manufactured then the carbon from those fossil fuels aren't released into the atmosphere.

Use, reuse, recycle.  And if there is no further possible use then re-bury the carbon.

And there's no reason why we can't drill and mine using electricity.  We already mine underground coal with electricity and pump oil with electric pumps.

Here's how 'primary' energy is used (and not used) in the US.



All that gray stuff is energy we pay for and the toss away as heat.  We use less than half of the primary energy from fossil fuels.  By foregoing fossil fuels and going straight to electricity we greatly lower the energy we will need to generate from renewables.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1724 on: September 02, 2017, 03:36:47 PM »
Denmark’s oil drilling endgame
Bloomberg notes that Danish companies are quietly exiting the oil and gas business, and it cites this as evidence that the petroleum era is drawing to a close in Denmark. A.P. Moller-Maersk, primarily a shipping company, recently agreed to sell its oil subsidiary to France’s Total for $7.5 billion. And DONG Energy, the world’s biggest operator of offshore wind farms, sold its oil and gas assets earlier this year. The Bloomberg New Energy Finance post, here, says oil and gas drilling expertise gained in Denmark’s section of the North Sea helped the country become a leader in offshore wind—and that the last of its petroleum revenue will help fund clean energy facilities.

KEY QUOTE: “The more money [Total] makes on the North Sea, the more money there will be for us to spend on the green transition.” —Danish Energy Minister Lars Christian Lilleholt
http://us2.campaign-archive1.com/?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=739291ad17


World’s Biggest Wind Turbine Maker Waves Oil Industry Goodbye
https://about.bnef.com/blog/worlds-biggest-wind-turbine-maker-waves-oil-industry-goodbye/
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1725 on: September 03, 2017, 12:08:46 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-01/world-s-most-important-chemical-made-rare-commodity-by-harvey

61% of US ethylene production is offline due to Harvey (about 10-15% of global production). That's cut US natural gas sales by 5% according to this story (so I guess about 10% of gas is used for plastic?)

This means more expensive plastic for the next several months, and cheaper natural gas for power plants in the US.

It's just a temporary blip, but every temporary blip that shuts down a coal plant is good.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1726 on: September 14, 2017, 06:12:05 PM »
Who'd 'a thought ($50 oil)?  from Bloomberg:

[PS: Irma and, before that, family sick leave has kept me busy for weeks.]
Edit: changed PDF to PNG
« Last Edit: September 15, 2017, 07:42:31 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1727 on: September 15, 2017, 09:04:01 AM »

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1728 on: September 15, 2017, 07:45:39 PM »
Looks like Saudi Aramco is putting off their IPO until 2019 now.

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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1729 on: September 20, 2017, 04:00:49 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/20/new-zealand-election-jet-fuel-debacle-disrupts-campaign-travel-exports

A digger wiped out most of the fuel supply of NZ's main city, days before the national election.

We can hope this helps trigger a move to electrification. A lot of people claim EVs are unreliable, but it's a lot harder to wipe out the grid than to wipe out the pipelines -- especially in the modern less-centralized grid infrastructure with large penetrations of solar and wind.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1730 on: September 25, 2017, 08:38:00 PM »
“Something unusual is happening: because oil never rallied in the second quarter as anticipated, analysts have been continuing to take down estimates for oil company earnings, and also continue to lower them for the third and fourth quarter.”

Big oil reports could put the brakes on the earnings-fueled rally
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/big-oil-reports-could-put-the-brakes-on-the-earnings-fueled-rally.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1731 on: September 25, 2017, 08:45:10 PM »
Took them long enough! ::) I wonder what caused the sudden change.

Exxon aims to curb methane emissions from shale division
HOUSTON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp said on Monday it would launch a program to curb its methane emissions from its U.S. shale facilities by replacing aging equipment and updating dated technology, part of a plan by the company to reduce its environmental footprint.
...
As part of the three-year program, Exxon will replace outdated natural gas-powered pneumatic pumps, which chronically leak methane into the atmosphere, with compressed air-powered pumps. Such pumps can regulate pressure, temperature and other variables in oilfield equipment.

The company will also boost employee training on methane emissions reduction and begin to study how satellites, drones and other equipment can better be used to detect leaks.

Exxon said it has worked with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on using drones for methane detection flights.
...
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/exxon-aims-to-curb-methane-emissions-from-shale-division-20170925-00888
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1732 on: September 26, 2017, 03:32:01 PM »
The linked article indicates that current high oil prices (primarily due to increasing demand) is stimulating new shale oil production in the USA:

Title: "Oil Rally Puts Bulls on Top, But $60-Plus Tough to Sustain"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-26/oil-rally-has-bulls-on-top-but-60-plus-seen-as-hard-to-sustain
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1733 on: September 27, 2017, 04:59:45 PM »
In French about peak oil :
https://www.rtbf.be/auvio/detail_debats-premiere?id=2259340
Two surprises for me in this video :
- peak oil doesn't seem to be a worry, the only problem would be investments. One of the speakers believes that investments are done, the other one not and he believes that prices would go up around 2020 and this would create an economical crisis.
- climate change doesn't seem to be an issue.

Otherwise, both believe in energy transition, but one sees renewable as an extra energy, the other one talked about 100% renewable, but in a long time.

I have to say that I am surprised that production continiues to go up, and I find it very difficult to find recent charts making the difference between conventional and non conventional production.

According to this site, conventional oil production doesn't grow anymore.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-crude-plus-condensate-and-conventional-oil/
People used to say that conventional oil production peaked in 2005. I wonder what is the reality.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1734 on: September 27, 2017, 05:52:00 PM »
Leaving environmental considerations completely out of discussions of oil and gas is 100% normal in business circles. Exxon had to be forced by its shareholders to include it in their annual reports. The business owners figure if they just deny the existence of environmental considerations, they'll go away.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1735 on: October 05, 2017, 01:54:11 AM »
Dirty Energy Dominance: Dependent on Denial – How the U.S. Fossil Fuel Industry Depends on Subsidies and Climate Denial
A new report by Oil Change International reveals that U.S. taxpayers continue to foot the bill for more than $20 billion in fossil fuel subsidies each year. The analysis outlines tax incentives, credits, low royalty rates, and other government measures benefiting the oil, gas, and coal sectors.

While the majority of Americans want stronger U.S. action on climate change, policies at the state and federal level continue to underwrite the ongoing exploration and production of fossil fuels. Every dollar spent subsidizing this industry takes us further away from achieving internationally agreed emissions goals, and maintaining a stable climate.

Key findings include:

Fossil fuel subsidies have been defended by a Congress influenced by $350 million in campaign contributions and lobbying expenditures by the fossil fuel industry – which equates to a 8,200% return on investment.

The cost of annual federal fossil fuel production subsidies is equivalent to the projected 2018 budget cuts from Trump’s proposals to slash 10 public programs and services that benefit some of the nation’s most vulnerable children and families.

Government giveaways in the form of permanent tax breaks to the fossil fuel industry – one of which is over a century old – are seven times larger than those to the renewable energy sector.

The report recommends that climate champions in Congress, statehouses, and governors’ residences concerned about using taxpayer dollars wisely can push back on Trump’s fossil fuel agenda by taking the following actions:

Immediately repeal existing tax breaks for fossil fuel exploration and production, and halt efforts to extend and expand tax credits for unconventional fossil fuel production technologies, like carbon capture and storage and enhanced oil recovery.

Champion broader legislation that ends investment in fossil fuel expansion, and funds a just transition for industry-dependent workers and communities, while supporting a clean, renewable energy economy.

Break the cycle of dirty energy money, particularly by elected officials at all levels of government pledging to refuse campaign donations and other forms of support from the oil, gas, and coal industries.
http://priceofoil.org/2017/10/03/dirty-energy-dominance-us-subsidies/

You can download the report at the link.
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1736 on: October 05, 2017, 03:56:41 PM »
For all the subsidies and government support, another pipeline bites the dust.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/transcanada-energy-east-1.4338227

The oil price crash and subsequent lack of recovery of prices has finally killed the project. They blame the permitting process of course, but the economics likely weren't there (the permitting process *did* delay them by years).

That's 1.1 million barrels per day of capacity that won't be built, which means the tar sands are stuck continuing to send their noxious product by rail. That increases the price enough that they can't build new projects. It's still worth it for them to continue mining the mines they have unfortunately, but it's not worth it to build new ones.

Keystone XL is all approved thanks to Trump, Trudeau and Notley, but also likely to be dumped.

The twinning of pipes into BC faces a provincial government that's propped up by Andrew Weaver's Green Party. The NDP is split on the issue but they have fewer seats than the official opposition; they depend on Green support. This is a relatively inexpensive project but it too faces bad economics.

The LNG terminal in BC was also canned, despite also having all the permits -- presumably due to fracking.

Good news / bad news: The projects are being canceled because there's a lot of supply and prices are low.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1737 on: October 05, 2017, 09:40:03 PM »
Saud tilt toward Russia ? First Saud monarch to visit Moscow.

" ... a memorandum of understanding on the purchase from Russia of S-400 air defense systems."

"Moscow and Riyadh worked together to secure a deal between OPEC and other oil producers to cut output until the end of March 2018, helping support prices.

Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said Saudi Arabia was “flexible” regarding Moscow’s suggestion to extend the pact until the end of next year. "

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-saudi-terror/russia-saudi-arabia-cement-new-friendship-with-kings-visit-idUSKBN1CA1QU?il=0

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1738 on: October 06, 2017, 04:21:44 AM »
Good news / bad news: The projects are being canceled because there's a lot of supply and prices are low.

And probably good news because the powers that be see a likely oil demand drop starting in a few years which would mean that the Canadian sludge oil would never find a market.

ghoti

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1739 on: October 06, 2017, 04:23:35 AM »
They are having trouble getting sufficient contracts to fill the Keystone XL so building another expensive pipeline would be harder to fill.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1740 on: October 08, 2017, 12:57:01 AM »
About 71% of oil production & 53% percent of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut down due to Hurricane Nate
https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/916773158912430082
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1741 on: October 09, 2017, 02:42:06 AM »
Formula E race circuit has been around for about 3 or 4 years now I believe.  They "road race".....on actual streets like the Formula 1 racers....and unlike both NASCAR and Indy type racing which is done on "oval tracks" (only left hand turns).

NASCAR is looking closely at trying to reign in the costs for teams that race.  It is very expensive to build the cars....and especially the expensive motors (and spare motors).  A blown piston or fox is NOT an unusual event.

I'll bet that within the next year or two NASCAR will BEGIN talking about EV's.  That will just be one more turning point in the worlds transition to EV's.  NASCAR will likely drag this out as long as they can...and they will be one of the "last adaptors"... but they will start talking about it a lot more over the next year or so.

Oil companies are really screwed....and right now they don't want to admit it.  But when NASCAR starts to talk about it.....that will be one more signpost that oil and gas companies are in deeper shit than they thought they were in.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1742 on: October 09, 2017, 05:31:21 PM »
Last year, Bill Nye wrote about the many benefits if NASCAR were to go electric.
The NASCAR response >:( at that time did not go well....

If NASCAR embraced electric cars it could change the world
https://aeon.co/ideas/if-nascar-embraced-electric-cars-it-could-change-the-world

NASCAR AND ELECTRIC CARS: A RESPONSE TO BILL NYE
http://buildingspeed.org/blog/2016/02/02/nascar-and-electric-cars-a-response-to-bill-nye/

Need a few more years of Formula E racing, and a few thousand more videos of family-car Teslas beating supercars on the drag strip. ;D When fans start showing up to NASCAR races in their Model 3s, we'll know the time is near.  ;)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1743 on: October 09, 2017, 09:19:27 PM »
I note West Texas Crude has been below $50 for several days now (per Bloomberg)
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1744 on: October 09, 2017, 10:00:56 PM »
NASCAR fans will start showing up in their Tesla 3s in the next year or two.  In small numbers at first of course.  The 2020's will not be a good decade for oil and gas companies.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1745 on: October 10, 2017, 04:10:24 PM »
The Oil folks must have been bothered by my last post and took action to 'rectify' the situation.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1746 on: October 10, 2017, 08:29:04 PM »
Anyone know of a good analysis piece on the oil market today? 

It seems like the price is settling in just under what it takes to send rigs back into US shale oil fields.  That the price is low enough to force out a lot of the supply from places like Venezuela and make the Middle Eastern countries the major producers.  Sort of an impromptu OPEC.  But I don't have the data to see if that's true.

(The now dead, deeply flawed Oil Drum would have that nailed down.)

I heard one mention that the cost of producing US shale oil might be lower now due to some technological improvement, but haven't seen anything detailed.  If so, we should see the price ceiling drop a bit  lowerer.



 

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1747 on: October 10, 2017, 09:37:14 PM »
Bloomberg says Saudi going to cut production again and hoping others will join in. Obvious result will be US production spike.

I honestly believe that speculating on short to medium term movements in oil prices is a mug's game. In the long term (perhaps even  by 2022?) renewables and EVs will start to really impact demand. Saudi Arabia and many others will be in real trouble. The USA may well ban imports and exports to keep the shale oil and gas industry going for some years longer.

The geopolitics of it  all will be fascinating - shifting of political tectonic plates or what.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1748 on: October 11, 2017, 01:20:40 AM »
I suspect we are close to peak oil demand.  EVs and PHEVs should soon sell in high enough numbers to neutralize any increase in vehicle demand.  And battery powered buses seem to be taking off.

Every year the least efficient vehicles should be aging out.  Their replacements are probably more fuel efficient.  Airlines and commercial fleets continuously look for ways to lower fuel consumption.

88 million global sales in 2016.  By 2020 I would expect a few million will be EVs and sometime not long after that we should see the beginnings of oil demand decay.

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1749 on: October 11, 2017, 01:25:34 PM »
I heard one mention that the cost of producing US shale oil might be lower now due to some technological improvement, but haven't seen anything detailed.  If so, we should see the price ceiling drop a bit  lowerer.

I read somewhere that price drop was more due to accepted reduction of incomes, we could also think that with a flat growth, there is no need to train new employees, which also reduces costs.


Could you also define PHEV ? Thanks.