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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1750 on: October 11, 2017, 03:31:15 PM »
Could you also define PHEV ? Thanks.
I believe the term refers to Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, which have an internal combustion engine but should probably use electric energy for most of their mileage.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1751 on: October 11, 2017, 04:42:33 PM »
PHEV = Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle  :)

They have a small battery that provides some all-electric range (10-40 miles [15-65 km] or so), plus a small petrol or diesel engine.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1752 on: October 11, 2017, 05:33:46 PM »
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle.  A small/modest sized battery and small internal gas engine.

The battery pack is sized to cover normal daily driving and the engine used for longer driving days.    The GM Volt has a 51 mile battery range.  Many Volt owners report using little to no gasoline.


etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1753 on: October 11, 2017, 10:32:09 PM »
I had to fill the tank of the BMW 3i yesterday at work, and I was able to put like 6 liters, or 1,5 gallon in it. When paying, you feel like you bought gasoline for the lawn mower.
On that car, the gasoline motor is a range extender that produces electricity to reload the batteries. It's not so easy to have a smooth drive with such a car, so I used the cruse control.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1754 on: October 13, 2017, 02:42:28 PM »
How afraid are oil companies that Musk will do something "BIG" in Puerto Rico?

What if a plan is layed out...that transitions the island to renewable energy generation over the next five to ten years....funded partially by private investors and part by government and part by insurance proceeds from the damage?  This could be done in decentralized pods.

There are at least two very uneasy parties:  1) Saudi Arabia, 2) Republicans...especially coal country Republicans.

Saudi Aramco is now scheduled to IPO in the second half of next year. 
I am anxious to see what Elon and Puerto Rico are able to come up with in the coming weeks...if anything.  There is so much momentum re renewable energy now.  The Saudis see the coming tsunami.  The question is when will INVESTORS see that tsunami?





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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1755 on: October 13, 2017, 07:35:43 PM »
How afraid are oil companies that Musk will do something "BIG" in Puerto Rico?

What if a plan is layed out...that transitions the island to renewable energy generation over the next five to ten years....funded partially by private investors and part by government and part by insurance proceeds from the damage?  This could be done in decentralized pods.

There are at least two very uneasy parties:  1) Saudi Arabia, 2) Republicans...especially coal country Republicans.

Saudi Aramco is now scheduled to IPO in the second half of next year. 
I am anxious to see what Elon and Puerto Rico are able to come up with in the coming weeks...if anything.  There is so much momentum re renewable energy now.  The Saudis see the coming tsunami.  The question is when will INVESTORS see that tsunami?
Does anyone know what PR's present, (pre-hurricane) energy mix is/was?
Terry

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1756 on: October 13, 2017, 11:55:39 PM »
Well, well, well. No IPO for Aramco ?!

"Saudi Aramco is considering shelving plans for an international public offering in favor of a private share sale to world sovereign funds and institutional investors ..."

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-saudiaramco-ipo/saudi-aramco-in-talks-to-shelve-international-ipo-ft-idUKKBN1CI2GS

sidd


Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1757 on: October 14, 2017, 12:12:39 AM »
Even Saudi Aramco is waking up.  I guess Moron Donald Trump will be the last off the fossil fuel boat.

The FUNDAMENTALS.....the TECHNICALS.....and the PSYCHOLOGY regarding oil are bad.  And it will get worse before it gets better.  They are F****D over the next 6 - 10 years and they will sell whatever piece they can to whoever will buy it.

The top in oil is passed....and everyone sees the nice long downward slope in front of them.

The long term drop in oil prices couldn't happen to a more deserving industry.😜

FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Adam Ash

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1758 on: October 14, 2017, 12:23:05 PM »
Well, well, well. No IPO for Aramco ?!

"Saudi Aramco is considering shelving plans for an international public offering in favor of a private share sale to world sovereign funds and institutional investors ..."

sidd
Maybe they have figured out that some folks with money to invest can actually read the books of Big Oil and discern that there is no money to be made from a twilight technology in a world which cannot afford its product.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1759 on: October 14, 2017, 08:08:42 PM »
Well, well, well. No IPO for Aramco ?!

"Saudi Aramco is considering shelving plans for an international public offering in favor of a private share sale to world sovereign funds and institutional investors ..."

sidd
Maybe they have figured out that some folks with money to invest can actually read the books of Big Oil and discern that there is no money to be made from a twilight technology in a world which cannot afford its product.

Saudi Arabia was an early entrant into the global oil market and despite enormous proven reserves, they are now becoming a high cost producer as they need to employ costly technologies to continue to pump oil out of the ground. They are also very secretive about the status of these oil fields and the U.S. has had to rely on satellites (measuring ground subsidence to evaluate specific fields) in order to assess them. When the price of a barrel drops, I would not be surprised if certain fields become unprofitable or only marginally profitable.

This knowledge is certainly not lost on the institutional investors and no large institutional investors or governments will consider investing without rigorous due diligence including detail with regards to production costs.

I suspect they were looking for windfall profits with the IPO, based on unsophisticated investors, and this is simply not possible.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2017, 08:14:07 PM by Shared Humanity »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1760 on: October 15, 2017, 12:07:14 AM »
they are now becoming a high cost producer

True?  Where did you see that?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1761 on: October 15, 2017, 01:10:36 AM »
they are now becoming a high cost producer

True?  Where did you see that?

I think I am wrong on this.

Adam Ash

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1762 on: October 15, 2017, 01:41:32 AM »
they are now becoming a high cost producer

True?  Where did you see that?

I think I am wrong on this.

You don't have to be completely right to be right enough. Given the perilous state of the SA economy, the continuing decline in profitability of old fields is enough to cause considerable angst. The failure of the IPO will be a great blow to both the economy and to the dignity of the state.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1763 on: October 15, 2017, 08:12:10 AM »
they are now becoming a high cost producer

True?  Where did you see that?

I think I am wrong on this.

Yeah, I couldn't find anything.  I did find this interesting chart about 2017 production costs. 


gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1764 on: October 15, 2017, 10:59:08 AM »
Bob Wallace has shown one part of the oil equation, i.e. oil production costs.
Another part is break-even price by country, which reflects the extent of a country's dependence on oil revenues.
Comparing that with current and future oil price tells one how much of a structural problem a country has.

Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq Russia and Saudi Arabia have production costs well below current sale price. But their Governments need a sale price of $100 + to balance the books, i.e. they are going bust, either borrowing, or if they have any, running down their cash reserves.

The same basic components apply to Natural Gas

Everyone with an ounce of rational thought in their brain knows that any sustained increase in crude and natural gas prices results in a boost to US shale production and a boost to renewable energy investment. Many oil producing countries will fail to create an economy independent of oil within the next few years. They will go bust. So will over-exposed investors and lenders. People will starve. It will be messy and violent.

Someone please prove I am wrong.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1765 on: October 15, 2017, 12:47:20 PM »
Saudi Aramco has insisted that its plans for what is likely to be the world's biggest stock market listing remain on track.

There are reports Aramco might shelve the initial public offering (IPO) in favour of private share placings.

But the state-owned oil giant said the timing for a £1.5 trillion dual listing on the Saudi and an international stock market was still scheduled for 2018.

The London Stock Exchange is wooing Aramco, but the move is controversial.

Over the weekend the Financial Times reported that Aramco was considering halting a flotation in favour of selling shares privately to the world's biggest sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors.

The sale of a 5% stake in Aramco is central to the Saudi government's economic reform plans. But a share listing would open the company to greater international regulation and scrutiny.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41627231

So still on track and was never being shelved just considering alternative route.

So

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1766 on: October 15, 2017, 03:51:41 PM »

So still on track and was never being shelved just considering alternative route.


Who will buy. I have told my boss to check with his pension fund managers on how exposed he is to fossil fuels directly and indirectly (e.g. through those who might buy into the ARAMCO float).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1767 on: October 15, 2017, 04:46:54 PM »
gerontocrat: Iran was unable to pump much oil until recently due to sanctions, so it’s not nearly so dependent on world oil prices as its neighbors (it’s also much more populated). Saudi, the gulf states, Jordan, and Libya have small population heavily dependent on oil sales; they’re hurting bad.

Of course, Libya doesn’t have a central government to blame; it’s already at war for independent reasons.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1768 on: October 15, 2017, 06:29:04 PM »
Bob Wallace has shown one part of the oil equation, i.e. oil production costs.
Another part is break-even price by country, which reflects the extent of a country's dependence on oil revenues.
Comparing that with current and future oil price tells one how much of a structural problem a country has.

Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq Russia and Saudi Arabia have production costs well below current sale price. But their Governments need a sale price of $100 + to balance the books, i.e. they are going bust, either borrowing, or if they have any, running down their cash reserves.

The same basic components apply to Natural Gas

Everyone with an ounce of rational thought in their brain knows that any sustained increase in crude and natural gas prices results in a boost to US shale production and a boost to renewable energy investment. Many oil producing countries will fail to create an economy independent of oil within the next few years. They will go bust. So will over-exposed investors and lenders. People will starve. It will be messy and violent.

Someone please prove I am wrong.

Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq Russia and Saudi Arabia - I'm not sure that their governments need $100/barrel prices in order to stay afloat.  Certainly not all.  If countries can sell enough oil for a smaller profit then they can 'survive'.

Venezuela, for example,  has a breakeven price of about $28/barrel.  They could either sell a small number of barrels at $100 or a lot of oil at $40 and gain the capital they need to cover debts.  The problem is that there appears to be enough oil that can be sold for less.

I suspect that at this point in time when it's so obvious that we are going to see a massive oil demand decrease over the next 10 to 20 years countries like Saudi Arabia want to move a lot of oil (at an acceptable price) in order to earn what they can.  There's got to be a juggling act to keep the price as high as possible without allowing more volume/supply into the market.

There's going to be a lot of economic disruption as oil fades from importance.  Countries that have little other to sell and who have inadequate governments are going to be in major pain.   I think we're going to see civil unrest, riots and rebellions in the countries who have least prepared.

I think the world is going to be facing some very difficult times over the next few decades.  Some countries are going to experience economic crashes as they lose their oil incomes.  But the larger problem is likely to be climate refugees as people will be forced to abandoned those places where they cannot live due to heat and drought.

Look at how we're already creating Fortress America and Fortress Europe with right wing governments working to keep people from crossing their borders.  The UK is cranking up the drawbridge over the moat.

During my lifetime we've fought the ideological/political wars.  We battled out naziism and communinism. We're still working on democracy vs. dictatorship.  Those who are young now are likely to see their battles over whether we allow others to live where we live or whether we shoot them when they get close to our walls.
--

Sorry, I'm suffering from a bit of Donnie Depression this morning.  The United States is in a terrible fix with no relief in sight.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1769 on: October 15, 2017, 07:23:20 PM »

Venezuela, for example,  has a breakeven price of about $28/barrel.  They could either sell a small number of barrels at $100 or a lot of oil at $40 and gain the capital they need to cover debts.  The problem is that there appears to be enough oil that can be sold for less.
At $50 a barrel, Venezuela cannot cover the cost of basic healthcare, education, roads etc and debt repayments. It cannot afford basic imports. The break even price to keep Venezuela afloat is more than $100.
You can't avoid arithmetic. For Venezuela extreme weather events from AGW just make it worse.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1770 on: October 15, 2017, 08:20:33 PM »

Venezuela, for example,  has a breakeven price of about $28/barrel.  They could either sell a small number of barrels at $100 or a lot of oil at $40 and gain the capital they need to cover debts.  The problem is that there appears to be enough oil that can be sold for less.
At $50 a barrel, Venezuela cannot cover the cost of basic healthcare, education, roads etc and debt repayments. It cannot afford basic imports. The break even price to keep Venezuela afloat is more than $100.
You can't avoid arithmetic. For Venezuela extreme weather events from AGW just make it worse.

What you are saying is that Venezuela does not have the ability to ship enough $50 oil to pay their bills.

$100 - $28 = $72

 $50 - $28 = $22

3.3 x $22 = $73


TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1771 on: October 16, 2017, 01:19:45 AM »
gerontocrat


It's been a year or more but Russia was budgeting using $40 oil.
That plus a bumper wheat crop (no GMO), a surging demand for their military equipment, low debt, and a rapidly growing stash of gold will keep them in the game for the foreseeable future.


The US and Saudi's broke the Soviet Union by manipulating energy prices, but this go round it's the other players that are being crushed. The Saudi's seem bent on very expensive military excursions even though oil prices are still very soft.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1772 on: October 16, 2017, 04:05:31 AM »
Breaking:  Oil rig explodes in Louisiana's Lake Ponchartrain, injuries reported
https://www.apnews.com/5806186ef3ba44dc80719d95a447a2ad
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1773 on: October 16, 2017, 05:20:54 AM »
The regional insurance companies are taking quite a hit this year. Next year's premiums are going to jump.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1774 on: October 16, 2017, 04:42:08 PM »
Explosion was on a natural gas platform that receives and stores gas from multiple fields.  In shallow water, only 1.5 miles (2.4 km) from shore.  7 injured, 1 missing.  "No environmental impact" expected to Louisiana's Lake Ponchartrain.  "This is not a Deepwater Horizon."

Search ongoing for missing worker after gas platform explosion
http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/jefferson/7-rescued-1-missing-after-platform-fire-in-lake-pontchartrain/483610188
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1775 on: October 17, 2017, 02:35:37 PM »
Up from a week ago:
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1776 on: October 17, 2017, 03:45:59 PM »
gerontocrat

It's been a year or more but Russia was budgeting using $40 oil.
That plus a bumper wheat crop (no GMO), a surging demand for their military equipment, low debt, and a rapidly growing stash of gold will keep them in the game for the foreseeable future.

Terry
An interesting article from:-

http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/Russia-reduces-budget-s-dependence-on-oil.html

"Our non-oil and gas budget deficit will reduce to less than 6% in 2018-2020, and in 2019 we stop spending our reserves, which we continue to use this year and in next year," TASS cited Siluanov as saying.

Note that they have been using up their cash reserves and expect to do so for up to 2 more years.
Note also your comment that surging sales of military equipment are helping. Who to and what for? Good news for Russia, maybe not if this reflects growing tensions elsewhere.

A less sanguine view comes from the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)  :-
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ranepa-monitoring-of-russias-economic-outlook-september-2017-available-online-651043313.html
http://www.ranepa.ru/eng/images/docs/monitoring/2017_16-54_September_eng.pdf

Page 9 of the pdf file
"The H1 2017 results for Russian regions are ambiguous: the economy is get-
Ɵ ng out of the crisis, but the dynamics of households’ income and consump-
Ɵ on look far less opƟ misƟ c. Revenues of budgets are growing ahead of the
dynamics of expenditures, but in almost half of regions there are sƟ ll budget
imbalances. Regions’ policy prioriƟ es as regards support of the economy and
promoƟ on of human capital development have become more high-profi le,
but posiƟ ve trends are weak and localized primarily in the most compeƟƟ ve
regions. "
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1777 on: October 17, 2017, 05:06:37 PM »
gerontocrat


Do you feel then that Russia is in danger of either defaulting on foreign debt, or being unable to keep up with the needs/wants of her unwashed?


Terry

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1778 on: October 17, 2017, 05:24:35 PM »
Anyone who thinks the Russian economy is "out of the woods"......I have a bridge I will sell to you.

Oil hasn't bottomed YET.  An inefficient economy.....run by Vladi's kleptocracy.....Vladi better hope that oil prices don't collapse before elections next year. 
FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1779 on: October 17, 2017, 06:16:40 PM »
Anyone who thinks the Russian economy is "out of the woods"......I have a bridge I will sell to you.

Oil hasn't bottomed YET.  An inefficient economy.....run by Vladi's kleptocracy.....Vladi better hope that oil prices don't collapse before elections next year.


By most accounts oil has already collapsed.


Russia has been lowering her dollar reserves, even as she buys tons gold. Didn't "Vlad" announce fairly recently that Russia had paid all of the Soviet Union's staggering debts in full!


http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-bosnia-debt/russia-to-pay-off-soviet-debt-with-125-mln-for-bosnia-and-herzegovina-idUSR4N1F102X


How's your country doing with her debts?
Terry

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1780 on: October 17, 2017, 06:25:54 PM »
Many countries still have 30-year bonds outstanding from 1991, on account of it having been just under 30 years since 1991. Most of them haven't defaulted on their bonds, so there hasn't needed to be a renegotiation of those debts.

What was your point?

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1781 on: October 17, 2017, 07:35:21 PM »
Many countries still have 30-year bonds outstanding from 1991, on account of it having been just under 30 years since 1991. Most of them haven't defaulted on their bonds, so there hasn't needed to be a renegotiation of those debts.

What was your point?


A response to Buddy's comments on Putin's management of Russia's economy?
I'm unsure why bond due dates are relevant though, will 2021 be a problem?
Terry

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1782 on: October 17, 2017, 10:20:13 PM »
Even people in Greece responding to you will be able to point to individual debts from 1991 or earlier that their country is paying off just fine right now. I'm not sure how it's supposed to demonstrate that the economy is doing fine. It does demonstrate that the Russian economy hasn't completely collapsed.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1783 on: October 18, 2017, 01:40:09 AM »
Meanwhile, a man from Katy, Texas is still missing today after a gas rig explosion in Louisiana.

Regulators Reviewing Drilling Rig Safety Rules
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-environment/2017/10/17/243081/regulators-reviewing-drilling-rig-safety-rules/amp/
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1784 on: October 18, 2017, 04:01:23 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/17/study-methane-emissions-from-alberta-oil-and-gas-wells-are-worse-than-thought

Methane emissions from oil and gas mining in Alberts are 25-50% higher than previously thought.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1785 on: October 18, 2017, 12:51:15 PM »
gerontocrat

Do you feel then that Russia is in danger of either defaulting on foreign debt, or being unable to keep up with the needs/wants of her unwashed?

Terry
For most Russians (who are not in Central Moscow, Petersburg or oil / gas industries) life is still pretty grim.
Most new investment in Russia is still aimed at oil and gas.
Russians are good at bearing hardship.

Foreign debts are safe, people are safe but not doing better.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1786 on: October 18, 2017, 02:07:12 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/17/study-methane-emissions-from-alberta-oil-and-gas-wells-are-worse-than-thought

Methane emissions from oil and gas mining in Alberts are 25-50% higher than previously thought.


It sounds as though the "technique" that results in 360% more emissions than previously believed needs to be done away with. Sure to please our Western brothers.


Somehow we need to keep the Tar Sands buried, and Alberta in the Dominion.
Terry

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1787 on: October 18, 2017, 02:14:05 PM »
gerontocrat

Do you feel then that Russia is in danger of either defaulting on foreign debt, or being unable to keep up with the needs/wants of her unwashed?

Terry
For most Russians (who are not in Central Moscow, Petersburg or oil / gas industries) life is still pretty grim.
Most new investment in Russia is still aimed at oil and gas.
Russians are good at bearing hardship.

Foreign debts are safe, people are safe but not doing better.


I think that's a fair assessment.
Terry

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1788 on: October 18, 2017, 06:54:00 PM »
I’m dubious the tar sands have a future, no matter what happens.

Alberta leaving Canada is as likely as Texas or California quitting the US. It’s all talk.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1789 on: October 18, 2017, 09:27:19 PM »
I’m dubious the tar sands have a future, no matter what happens.

Alberta leaving Canada is as likely as Texas or California quitting the US. It’s all talk.


Hope you're right on both counts. :)
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1790 on: October 21, 2017, 03:26:11 AM »
EPA PLANS TO ALLOW UNLIMITED DUMPING OF FRACKING WASTEWATER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
"The EPA is endangering an entire ecosystem by allowing the oil industry to dump unlimited amounts of fracking chemicals and drilling waste fluid into the Gulf of Mexico," said Center attorney Kristen Monsell. "This appalling plan from the agency that's supposed to protect our water violates federal law, and shows a disturbing disregard for offshore fracking's toxic threats to sea turtles and other Gulf wildlife."
http://www.occupy.com/article/epa-plans-allow-unlimited-dumping-fracking-wastewater-gulf-mexico
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.