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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1850 on: November 02, 2017, 08:31:31 PM »
If gas and diesel costs at the pump drop drastically as demand plummets, this could add years to ICE's longevity. A large portion of this will depend on how road maintenance is paid for.
The present road tax per gallon of fuel clearly won't be viable in the not too distant future, and how and when a more equitable model kicks in will have an effect on when ICE models are confined to museum dioramas.
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1851 on: November 02, 2017, 09:58:20 PM »
Not 40 million.  In 2014 global car sales were 71.18 million.  In 2017 the number should be about 78.59 million.  Growth of about 2.5 million per year.

The claim is that 40 million is net growth. Your 71 million (or 79 million) is new cars. Those numbers add up if 31 million cars (or 39 million) cars are being taken out of circulation each year, which is about half.

Quote
Only half as many getting crushed as are sold per year sounds way too low.  That would mean shipping a huge number of 15+ year old cars to developing countries.  And I haven't seen them where I've been traveling.

The numbers add up without invoking any world trade. In the late 1910s and through the 1920s the US was buying a lot more cars than it was taking out of service, just because an increasing number of people were becoming car owners. Now a hundred years later, the rest of the world is doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1852 on: November 03, 2017, 12:25:04 AM »
I think we need to look back and see when global production moved up to where it's been for the last few years (with about 2.5 million per year growth).

At some point the number of cars that age out per year becomes approximately equal to the number added (aside from growth).  Early 2000s the world was producing about 40 million cars per year.  Those cars are nearing the end of their useful lives and there are far fewer to crush based on production levels.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1853 on: November 03, 2017, 11:12:36 PM »
Any thoughts on how many years of service an EV might provide? or how many miles or kilometers a passenger vehicle would attain with normal maintenance and care?


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1854 on: November 03, 2017, 11:45:31 PM »
A couple of Teslas have put on over 200,000 miles and their batteries were still at over 90% of original capacity.  The electric motors should be good for a very long time.

I suppose the question is how long might the bodies last.  Will salt get to them in snow/ice country?

If we get robotaxis I can see designs for million mile cars.  Use non-corroding materials where structural strength is an issue.  Make it easy to pull out a tired interior and slip in a new one.  Give the body a paint job at the same time.

Don't know if you remember Checker Cabs.  Built in Kalamazoo specifically for taxi use.  The last one retired around year 2000 with almost a million miles driven.

With robos style won't be important.  It will be about function and practicality.

Tesla has talked about a million mile battery.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1855 on: November 03, 2017, 11:51:23 PM »
I think we need to look back and see when global production moved up to where it's been for the last few years (with about 2.5 million per year growth).

At some point the number of cars that age out per year becomes approximately equal to the number added (aside from growth).  Early 2000s the world was producing about 40 million cars per year.  Those cars are nearing the end of their useful lives and there are far fewer to crush based on production levels.

Looking at data I found I'm now seeing that the world is adding about 40 million cars per year.  If we assume the average lifespan of a car to be 20 years and we're adding 2 million a year then that's an additional 40 million per year more than are aging out.

That means it will take over 30 million EVs per year to hit peak oil demand.  Not 40 million as new cars tend to be driven many more miles per year than older cars.

Wonder how many EVs the world will be manufacturing by 2025?


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1856 on: November 04, 2017, 02:08:59 AM »
US backs out of global oil anti-corruption effort
Quote
The Trump administration said Thursday it would exit an international effort to fight corruption that targeted revenue from oil and natural gas extraction.

The U.S. will no longer participate in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a global initiative that requires member nations to disclose their revenues from oil, gas and mining assets, according to Reuters.

Under the agreement, the U.S. was required to reveal all the revenue it received from oil, gas and mining companies, and required those companies to publicly disclose the payments they make to the U.S. and other governments. ...
http://thehill.com/policy/international/358560-us-backs-out-of-global-oil-anti-corruption-effort
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1857 on: November 04, 2017, 08:00:52 PM »
I think we need to look back and see when global production moved up to where it's been for the last few years (with about 2.5 million per year growth).

At some point the number of cars that age out per year becomes approximately equal to the number added (aside from growth).  Early 2000s the world was producing about 40 million cars per year.  Those cars are nearing the end of their useful lives and there are far fewer to crush based on production levels.

Looking at data I found I'm now seeing that the world is adding about 40 million cars per year.  If we assume the average lifespan of a car to be 20 years and we're adding 2 million a year then that's an additional 40 million per year more than are aging out.

That means it will take over 30 million EVs per year to hit peak oil demand.  Not 40 million as new cars tend to be driven many more miles per year than older cars.

Wonder how many EVs the world will be manufacturing by 2025?

Calculate how many cars per capita there are in, say, Europe, then you can know roughly how many cars per capita to expect worldwide on average in 20-30 years (because the developing world is developing quite fast, and buying cars as they do).

Peak oil happens when everyone has a car that wants one. Actually a bit earlier, since efficiency is increasing. EVs make efficiency increase faster is all.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1858 on: November 05, 2017, 01:38:34 AM »
Peak oil happens when we cease adding more fuel burning vehicles to our fleets.  Perhaps a little sooner if we add more efficient and crush the less efficient.

I suspect once we hit peak oil demand will fall fairly rapidly.  EVs should be cheaper to purchase and charging infrastructure should be well established.  Few, if any people are likely to enter a dealer's showroom concerned about getting stranded due to dead batteries.

Older ICEVs are likely to get crushed once they need any significant repairs.  It will be cheaper to purchase a used EV and use the fuel savings to pay it off than to replace a transmission or engine.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1859 on: November 05, 2017, 07:59:49 AM »
oboy.

Saudi heir apparent moves to consolidate: puts his relatives in jail. Economic minister, national guard and navy chief replaced. Economic minister probably had to go because he told the truth that ARAMCO IPO was a bust. The other two because new boss needs absolute authority to suppress rebellion when the bust comes.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/04/saudi-royal-ousted-princes-reportedly-arrested-244553

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/saudi-ministers-national-guard-economy-dismissed-171104190619900.html

Now this might goose wall street, Alwaleed bin Talal was busted too. He owns all kindsa crap including a chunk of Citi:

" ... billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who owns investment firm Kingdom Holding 4280.SE, and former finance minister Ibrahim al-Assaf had been detained."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-arrests/saudi-billionaire-prince-alwaleed-former-ministers-detained-in-corruption-probe-idUSKBN1D506P

Two more billionaires in there too, the crown prince might need all the money, not just some

https://www.dailysabah.com/mideast/2017/11/05/alwaleed-bin-talal-two-other-billionaires-tycoons-among-saudi-arrests

Yup. He wants all the money. He busted Bakr bin Laden (yes, that bin Laden family) who owns perhaps the largest construction firm in Arabia)


sidd
« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 08:33:27 AM by sidd »

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1860 on: November 05, 2017, 05:11:37 PM »
Wow! Definitely something to watch.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1861 on: November 07, 2017, 04:34:05 AM »
The plots thicken:

Harriri Junior fled to Saudi and announce his resignation as Lebanese PM on Saudi owned TV citing fears of assassination plot, of which he was warned by Western intelligence agencies.

"Western intelligence agencies warned former Lebanese prime minister Saad al-Hariri of an assassination plot against him ... "

Lebanese security and army has no idea

"However, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, head of Lebanon’s General Security, said he had no information about an assassination plot against political figures in Lebanon. The army also said it had not uncovered any such plots. "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics-hariri-assassination/western-intelligence-warned-hariri-of-death-plot-asharq-al-awsat-idUSKBN1D50FK

Then Harriri's princely associate in the company Oger was busted, see my last comment

Then today,

"Saudi Arabia accused Lebanon on Monday of declaring war ... "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics/saudi-arabia-says-lebanon-declares-war-against-it-idUSKBN1D61SZ

I think there a a couple countries in between but Salman might declare war on them too.

Then Saudi closes all land, sea and air access to Yemen:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-missiles-yemen/saudi-led-forces-close-air-sea-and-land-access-to-yemen-idUSKBN1D60I8

More, better, newer wars in the Middle East, packed with more profit and death.

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1862 on: November 07, 2017, 07:26:12 AM »
The plots thicken:

Harriri Junior fled to Saudi and announce his resignation as Lebanese PM on Saudi owned TV citing fears of assassination plot, of which he was warned by Western intelligence agencies.

"Western intelligence agencies warned former Lebanese prime minister Saad al-Hariri of an assassination plot against him ... "

Lebanese security and army has no idea

"However, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, head of Lebanon’s General Security, said he had no information about an assassination plot against political figures in Lebanon. The army also said it had not uncovered any such plots. "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics-hariri-assassination/western-intelligence-warned-hariri-of-death-plot-asharq-al-awsat-idUSKBN1D50FK

Then Harriri's princely associate in the company Oger was busted, see my last comment

Then today,

"Saudi Arabia accused Lebanon on Monday of declaring war ... "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics/saudi-arabia-says-lebanon-declares-war-against-it-idUSKBN1D61SZ

I think there a a couple countries in between but Salman might declare war on them too.

Then Saudi closes all land, sea and air access to Yemen:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-missiles-yemen/saudi-led-forces-close-air-sea-and-land-access-to-yemen-idUSKBN1D60I8

More, better, newer wars in the Middle East, packed with more profit and death.

sidd


Doesn't Dick Cheney own a chunk of that large, recently discovered Golan Heights oil patch?
How is it that our oil always lies under their sand?


Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1863 on: November 07, 2017, 03:53:32 PM »
Nothing like a bit of blood and guts in the Middle East to get up the oil and gas price. Forget the small dip today, it is the jump 2 days ago that matters.
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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1864 on: November 07, 2017, 07:24:11 PM »
As expected, Saudi barks at Iran as well:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41899643

sidd

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1865 on: November 07, 2017, 09:24:29 PM »
Hadi joins Harriri in house arrest. Lebanes and Yemeni PMs confined, although Hadi was a puppet with no real power.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/yemen-president-hadi-house-arrest-riyadh-171107082638642.html

in other news, the price killed in helicopter crash is said to have been fleeing:

https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2017/11/07/1567616/saudi-prince-killed-while-trying-to-flee-amid-royal-purge-source

and the prince killed in a shootout was a business partner of Harriri in Oger:

http://theduran.com/saudi-prince-abdul-aziz-dies-arrest/

sidd



Neven

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1866 on: November 07, 2017, 10:13:53 PM »
Any links between Saudi corruption and Trump yet? I read somewhere that he set up all kinds of companies there.

It'd be good if Russia isn't the only country in the world with which American politicians can have corrupt dealings.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1867 on: November 08, 2017, 06:15:34 PM »
Any links between Saudi corruption and Trump yet? I read somewhere that he set up all kinds of companies there.

It'd be good if Russia isn't the only country in the world with which American politicians can have corrupt dealings.

Yes.  Recently.

Kushner took unannounced trip to Saudi Arabia
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/29/jared-kushner-saudi-arabia-244291

Kushner Had 4 AM Meetings With Saudi Crown Prince Who Engineered Royal Purge
http://forward.com/fast-forward/386974/kushner-had-4-am-meetings-with-saudi-crown-prince-who-engineered-royal-purg/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1868 on: November 08, 2017, 08:17:11 PM »
I don't know how much info people outside the US are getting about what is happening in the US at the moment but if you haven't heard Mueller, the person investigating the Trump/Russia connections, is starting to indict some of Trump's people.

The standard route for these sorts of investigations is that you charge people further down the ladder and offer them an easier way out if they deliver useful information on people farther up.

They haven't tapped Kushner and Don Jr. on the shoulder yet but people seem to think it won't be long.  There's a lot of hearsay regarding their involvement in Russian interference in last November's election but we don't know what the evidence will show.

This could turn out to be very nasty.  A worst case telling is that the Russians got a lot of people in Trump's circle involved in money laundering via real estate deals.  Trump has long been suspected of doing business with both NY mobsters and Russian oligarchs.  Most banks long ago quit doing business with him and rumor is that he reached out to shady operators for financing to keep his businesses afloat.

Some are suggesting that this may be a bigger mess than was Watergate.

Best if the rest of the world go on with global business and not count on help from the US for awhile.  Trump's word is obviously no good and the US may be entering a period of significant turmoil.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1869 on: November 09, 2017, 01:10:23 AM »
I don't know how much info people outside the US are getting about what is happening in the US at the moment but if you haven't heard Mueller, the person investigating the Trump/Russia connections, is starting to indict some of Trump's people.

The standard route for these sorts of investigations is that you charge people further down the ladder and offer them an easier way out if they deliver useful information on people farther up.

They haven't tapped Kushner and Don Jr. on the shoulder yet but people seem to think it won't be long.  There's a lot of hearsay regarding their involvement in Russian interference in last November's election but we don't know what the evidence will show.

This could turn out to be very nasty.  A worst case telling is that the Russians got a lot of people in Trump's circle involved in money laundering via real estate deals.  Trump has long been suspected of doing business with both NY mobsters and Russian oligarchs.  Most banks long ago quit doing business with him and rumor is that he reached out to shady operators for financing to keep his businesses afloat.

Some are suggesting that this may be a bigger mess than was Watergate.

Best if the rest of the world go on with global business and not count on help from the US for awhile.  Trump's word is obviously no good and the US may be entering a period of significant turmoil.


The problem, at least here in Canada, is that Trump's USA is wreaking havoc in so many areas. Ridiculous tariffs on our airplanes, noises about energy tariffs, and basically throwing NAFTA into the trash can.
The fault isn't 100% on your side, we had a wonderful, skilled, negotiator, with good green sensibilities, that was sacked in favor of a Pro-Ukrainian fanatic.


A Period of Significant Turmoil, it deserves capitalization. :(
Terry

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1870 on: November 09, 2017, 02:41:57 AM »
If this is true it's quite bold move by the prince, quicker than i thought: King to step down. But not confirmed yet and the express is a dodgy source

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/876832/Saudi-Arabia-King-Salman-ruler-Prince-Mohammed-bin-Salman

In other news, Salman is liquidating: Talal is under arrest and his empire is being sold. His holding in Fox have been sold.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/08/saudi-prince-sells-21st-century-fox-stake-in-blow-to-murdochs

Salman needs money now. Why, I wonder. I suppose wars are expensive.

sidd

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1871 on: November 09, 2017, 07:41:31 PM »
Otaiba (UAE ambassadon in DC) and Salman are thick as thieves. Otaiba emails reveal plot against Quatar already under blockade by Saudi, UAE and others. Plan was to destabilize Quatari bonds and currency.

https://theintercept.com/2017/11/09/uae-qatar-oitaba-rowland-banque-havilland-world-cup/

The more detail that emerges, the more I think the rulers of the various monarchies in the middle east are dangerous cowboys tossing matches in a room full of gasoline.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1872 on: November 10, 2017, 01:41:36 AM »
Harriri was blindsided, had no idea he was to be confined. And the Saud government owed his company 9 billion.

Salman needs money.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lebanon-prime-minister-saad-hariri-resignation-not-all-seems-quits-resigns-surprise-saudi-arabia-a8045636.html

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1873 on: November 10, 2017, 09:22:56 PM »
Bandar bin Sultan reportedly under arrest (yes, the one called Bandar Bush, ambassador in DC in 2001, his wife was sending money to the wife of one of the hijackers)

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-senior-figures-tortured-and-beaten-saudi-purge-1489501498

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1874 on: November 13, 2017, 01:08:26 AM »
Harriri now claims he will return to Lebanon. So i suppose the idea was to screw control of Oger out of him and his colleagues. I presume Oger is now firmly in Salman's clutches, so he is to be released. And the 9 billion debt the Saudi government owes Oger has vanished.

Upon reflection, I think Salman needs money because the ARAMCO IPO has gone pear shaped. He was probably counting on it. But busting plutocrats and stealing all their money is not going to get him far, those guys have been stashing coin abroad for decades and it will not be easy to recover.

Interesting times.

sidd

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1875 on: November 13, 2017, 01:40:41 AM »
The more detail that emerges, the more I think the rulers of the various monarchies in the middle east are dangerous cowboys tossing matches in a room full of gasoline.

That's been the case forever. In the past, US presidents have usually been able to douse the fire (exception being Iraq/Kuwait) -- unless they were themselves trying to light it (e.g. in Iraq/Iran). But the current president is an easily-manipulated idiot, so the gloves are off.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1876 on: November 13, 2017, 08:40:55 AM »
Yemen threatens attacks on oil tankers:

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.822382

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1877 on: November 13, 2017, 06:49:58 PM »
One DOW INDUSTRIAL stock down.....with more to come.  GE cut their dividend in half today ( that may not be enough by the way).  Exxon is going to have to cut their dividend as well.   Exxon and some of the larger oil conglomerates are putting off the inevitable:  They are going to have to cut their dividends.  It's only a matter of time.  And they are going to have to restructure as the energy complex shifts beneath them.....

By the way....GE bought 65% of oil and gas driller Baker Hughes just several months ago.  Now...GE is going to sell that as soon as the original puchase agreement allows them to (2019).

GE is a confused mess right now...


« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 08:01:12 PM by Buddy »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1878 on: November 14, 2017, 08:01:10 AM »
Russia bails Venezuela out:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2017/11/08/russia-says-venezuela-accepts-terms-for-3-billion-restructuring

Venezuela is into China for 50 billion or so. Looks like increasing fraction of production will go away from western markets westbound (quicker to get to russia/china thru Panama than suez and malacca). Venezuela PDVSA owns Citgo which is is a question, many assets in th USA suspectible to seizure when western banks bite.

sidd

« Last Edit: November 14, 2017, 08:10:23 AM by sidd »

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1879 on: November 14, 2017, 07:17:06 PM »
Few things to watch related to oil:

1). IEA is taking down oil demand numbers for next year

2). GE is getting out of the oil and gas drilling business as noted yesterday.....not good for oil and gas

3). Watch for weakness in the China economy to slowly develop.  They are....once again....overleveraged, and they can't print money forever.  A slowdown in China will negatively impact oil prices.

4). Watch out for any "jolt" from any LARGE negative Trump news.  Could see some knee jerk reactions to the oil markets as well as equity markets.

Fundamentals and technicals continue to look bad for oil and gas.

Exxon is in trouble IMHO.... GE continues to get hammered today....weakness in GE does not bode well for the demand in its markets....AND that does not bode well for oil prices.




FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1880 on: November 15, 2017, 05:42:48 PM »
I think we have seen a "divergence" develop over the last year or so...where renewable energy stocks, especially solar...continue to outperform oil stocks.  Of course I expect that to continue...and we will likely have some oil companies...like ExxonMobil...really "tank" at some point in the next year or two as more and more investors realize that fundamentals are stacked against most of the large oil and gas companies.

Just as GE had to slash their dividend in half...so will the major oil companies as they AND investors figure out that just as the use for coal being used to generate electricity is going away COMPLETELY....so is the use of oil for use in ground transportation...and that change is picking up speed.

The next steps "further out" in time...such as ship transport and air transport are already being worked on...but those changes will take much longer.  The low hanging fruit first...🍇🍉🍓🍈
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1881 on: November 15, 2017, 09:12:40 PM »
Venezuela sliding into debt default. If this screws up production of crude expect a price spike.
Russia/Iran vs USA/Saudi Arabia might get out of control. That would mean all bets are off.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1882 on: November 16, 2017, 04:34:02 AM »
Canada and Nunavut are doing a “strategic environmental assessment” of oil and gas resources in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay.

That is, there’s no proposal by an actual company, but the government is funding some research into what oil development would look like: the technologies, feasibility, environmental impact, and acceptance by local populations.

It’s madness in every direction. They’re flying a team of eight to each of ten communities in the area for two days of meetings in each community... twice. Plus the teams at home doing analysis.

This is millions of dollars being pissed away, in hopes of maybe someday the federal government will lift the exploration moratorium and an oil company will find it worthwhile to look for oil in a place the industry estimates would cost $75/barrel, at a time when carbon taxes are about to bite and electric cars are coming out.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1883 on: November 16, 2017, 04:12:38 PM »
World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Wants Out of Oil and Gas
Bloomberg
Quote
The $1 trillion fund that Norway has amassed pumping oil and gas over two decades wants out of energy stocks. 

Norway, which relies on oil and gas for a fifth of economic output, would be less vulnerable to declining crude prices without investments in the industry, the central bank said Thursday. The divestment would mark the second major step in scrubbing the world’s biggest wealth fund of climate risk, after it sold most of its coal stocks.
...
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1884 on: November 16, 2017, 04:25:52 PM »
Last I checked.....when an entity/individual....especially one with LRGE POSITIONS wants to sell something.....they then have to find buyers.....that's why they call it a market.  Matching buyers and sellers.

You will continue to see a LONG PARADE of owners of long positions.....looking to get out of the theatre before it burns down.  The crowd getting out of the theatre can either be slow and orderly.....OR....fast and frantic.......OR a combination of both.  We don't know....all we know is that oil and gas is a HUGE market with a LOT of concentrated wealth that has been built up over almost a hundred years.

Going to be a LOT more pain....and many "counter trend rally's".  Remember.....the top was in 2014.  There is going to be a lot of money lost in oil and gas.  Sorry KochHeads......couldn't happen to a more deserving pair of a*****es.  This is what they get for lying about global warming and trashing the earth.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2017, 04:55:50 PM by Buddy »
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1885 on: November 16, 2017, 05:03:18 PM »
A couple of the questions I have are:

1). What will Saudi Arabia/Russia/US do to keep the prices from crashing?  A war in Iran perhaps?  Good thing we don't have someone like Kushner going to Saudi Arabia working on something like that (unannounced). 😳

2). What will the investment banks do to try and keep the price of oil UP so the Saudi Aramco IPO can get done?  Lloyd Blanfein is doing "Gods work"..... maybe HE wants oil prices high as well.😉

What WILL they do to keep the price of oil up?

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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1886 on: November 16, 2017, 05:14:41 PM »
Buddy


One question I have is why anyone on this site would not want high fossil fuel prices?
Personally whatever promotes a rapid shift to renewables is good, and I'm willing to suffer a little if it's required.


Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1887 on: November 16, 2017, 05:16:47 PM »
A couple of the questions I have are:

1). What will Saudi Arabia/Russia/US do to keep the prices from crashing?
What WILL they do to keep the price of oil up?
Screw up - e.g. allow their proxy war in Yemen to get out of control. Hotheads and Hubris do so much damage
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1888 on: November 16, 2017, 05:50:04 PM »
World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Wants Out of Oil and Gas
Bloomberg
Quote
The $1 trillion fund that Norway has amassed pumping oil and gas over two decades wants out of energy stocks. 

Norway, which relies on oil and gas for a fifth of economic output, would be less vulnerable to declining crude prices without investments in the industry, the central bank said Thursday. The divestment would mark the second major step in scrubbing the world’s biggest wealth fund of climate risk, after it sold most of its coal stocks.
...

“Not something you see every day: The whole Stoxx 600 energy index drops as Norway's sovereign wealth fund says it's selling oil and gas holdings, more on @TheTerminal ”
https://twitter.com/BloombergNRG/status/931146802522480640

When people wake up to the worthless stranded assets that are propping up fossil fuel companies’ value, they will all want to sell their stock, and stock prices will tank.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1889 on: November 16, 2017, 06:12:46 PM »
One question I have is why anyone on this site would not want high fossil fuel prices?

High prices make for new oil and gas development. What I was arguing against last night hits break-even when the price of oil tops $75/barrel. As long as we stay below there, we get no drilling in the Arctic. Similarly, prices need to exceed $60/barrel before tar sands become viable to develop, and pipelines become viable to build.

But much of that break-even cost is up-front cost. The marginal cost once the mine is a lot lower.

If the price exceeds $60/barrel, we start to see new tar sands mines built. Those mines will keep producing until they are out of oil, or the price falls below something like $30/barrel. So high prices mean more oil coming out of the ground.

On the flip side, you're right: low oil prices mean a slower transition away from oil. But I suspect the oil price probably doesn't matter that much when it comes to cars particularly. For most people buying new cars, the price is quite secondary to other considerations (otherwise they'd be buying used) -- so that means that most cars on the road were purchased without really thinking hard about the cost of fuel.

This is quite different for fleets; the bus service in Shenzhen or the taxi company in Montreal have accountants that care about the budget. But they aren't burning nearly as much oil as individuals do.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1890 on: November 16, 2017, 06:30:14 PM »
If the ifs and but's were candy and nuts....we'd all have a merry Christmas.🎁

It is not about what someone "wants" or "thinks"....it is about "what is likely based on the facts we have now....and the likelihood of other things happening in the short term and how they impact the FLOW OF MONEY into or out of an investment."

Everything else is noise....

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1891 on: November 17, 2017, 12:12:36 AM »
Keystone Pipeline leaks 210,000 gallons of oil in South Dakota
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/16/us/keystone-pipeline-leak/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1892 on: November 17, 2017, 06:02:29 AM »
One question I have is why anyone on this site would not want high fossil fuel prices?

High prices make for new oil and gas development. What I was arguing against last night hits break-even when the price of oil tops $75/barrel. As long as we stay below there, we get no drilling in the Arctic. Similarly, prices need to exceed $60/barrel before tar sands become viable to develop, and pipelines become viable to build.

But much of that break-even cost is up-front cost. The marginal cost once the mine is a lot lower.

If the price exceeds $60/barrel, we start to see new tar sands mines built. Those mines will keep producing until they are out of oil, or the price falls below something like $30/barrel. So high prices mean more oil coming out of the ground.

On the flip side, you're right: low oil prices mean a slower transition away from oil. But I suspect the oil price probably doesn't matter that much when it comes to cars particularly. For most people buying new cars, the price is quite secondary to other considerations (otherwise they'd be buying used) -- so that means that most cars on the road were purchased without really thinking hard about the cost of fuel.

This is quite different for fleets; the bus service in Shenzhen or the taxi company in Montreal have accountants that care about the budget. But they aren't burning nearly as much oil as individuals do.
I hadn't considered the Tar Sands, and you're right of course. If FF's are too cheap, there is little financial reason to move to renewables. Perhaps floating about where we are isn't too bad. Most solar and wind applications are more than able to compete, yet not enough money in oil to make Tar Sands, or other "exotic" development viable.
Terry

crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1893 on: November 17, 2017, 12:54:25 PM »
If FF's are too cheap, there is little financial reason to move to renewables. Perhaps floating about where we are isn't too bad. Most solar and wind applications are more than able to compete, yet not enough money in oil to make Tar Sands, or other "exotic" development viable.

Depends on reason for low prices. If low because lots of supply, that is bad - we will keep using it / increasing our use until supply is no longer plentiful, price rises and more production can profitably be commenced.

If the reason for low prices is low demand because renewables are even cheaper, this is excellent.

(Not sure we are quite at this stage yet.)

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1894 on: November 17, 2017, 01:33:46 PM »
The Tesla semi truck unveiling blew away all the predictions in several ways:

1). Range of battery pack was 500 miles
2). Full cost of truck AND operating costs is less than diesel
3). Much safer to drive
4).  Tesla also showed off their New roadster that has a range of 620 miles

The changes to the transportation and power industry continue to accelerate.  The oil companies will be forced to face up to the light at the end of the tunnel about to run them over isnt a train...it is a long line of electric vehicles including a Tesla semi. 😳🚒🚛🚚🚌
« Last Edit: November 17, 2017, 10:42:06 PM by Buddy »
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1895 on: November 17, 2017, 02:24:03 PM »
One thing to note on the supply side:  The 12 month moving average of OPEC production is at a 3 year high:  32.6 vs 30.2....a little more than 7% off the August 2014 "intermediate term" bottom.

Unless demand picks up...which is always POSSIBLE...or production is slowed down due to cuts or political strife... oil price could weaken further.  I suspect that China demand .....will it weaken...is something to keep a close eye on, as well as any increase in US shale production.



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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1896 on: November 17, 2017, 02:39:15 PM »
Siemens just cut 6,900 jobs in its Power and Energy division.  They build large turbines for natural gas electric generating facilities and they build equipment for gas extraction...fracking.

The renewable energy industry is hitting them big time ("bigly" in Moron speak 😳).
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1897 on: November 17, 2017, 03:04:55 PM »
Similarly: I just sold a bunch of stocks. Somehow I had some ABB stock, which is in that big components for fossil fuel energy business. It was down by half from ten years ago when I got it. Similarly a chemicals business. The sandals business and the amusement park business were both up, and the software for construction business was up sixfold in as many years.


sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1898 on: November 17, 2017, 09:25:22 PM »
Salman imports torture expertise from Egypt: convicted criminal torturing saudi royals. Gee, i'm surprised the USA didnt lend him some expertise as well.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/egypt-security-chief-advising-saudi-crackdown-171116152004703.html

I wonder how much he has extracted yet. I suspect not enuf to make up for ARAMCO fiasco.

sidd

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1899 on: November 18, 2017, 05:38:29 AM »
University dean and director of OK geological survey pressured seismologist to hide link between fracking wastewater injection and earthquakes.

http://www.normantranscript.com/news/former-state-seismologist-testifies-officials-coerced-him-to-alter-research/article_d8383864-cb20-11e7-8206-2bc32ae1169a.html

sidd