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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1950 on: November 30, 2017, 11:40:13 PM »
So they lose a worthless lease.

Batteries clearly work.  EVs are clearly going to be less expensive to own than ICEVs.  Electricity is clearly going to become less expensive.

A company that can't understand that is in deep denial and is risking its future.  It's time to stop spending on exploration.  Sell what you've got as long as you've got it.  And morph into a new type of business like Statoil has done.

As the oil exploration executive at the oil company, consider two options:

(a) Make the bet.
(b) Don't make the bet.

If you make the bet and it hits, you create a lot of shareholder wealth for a glorious instant, you're feted by your colleagues, and you can sell some of those shares and convert them to mansions and nice Teslas for you and yours, maybe an electric private jet too. This only happens if battery production is limited by some supply issues, *and* oil supply is constrained e.g. by Salman getting into a shooting war with Iran, *and* there's oil where you look, *and* politicians don't block you. 1% chance of this.

If you make the bet and it loses, you're going to slowly lose your job as your company's oil division shrinks. 99% chance of this.

If you don't make the bet, you're going to slowly lose your job as your company's oil division. 100% chance of this.

A 1% chance of success is better than a 0% chance of success.

There's another option of course, which is to get a different job. But oil companies pay well.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1951 on: December 01, 2017, 12:05:34 AM »
If it is going to cost you $80 or more per barrel to bring Arctic oil to market and the US can flood the market with <$50/barrel shale oil where's the win?

Neven

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1952 on: December 01, 2017, 12:36:50 AM »
Working together to solve problems is the only way.

I agree, but if we don't understand the problem, we can't explain it to others, let alone solve it.

And if you won't allow me to call myself an idiot, I don't know how I'm going to get through the day.  ;)

Sorry for the off-topic.
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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1953 on: December 01, 2017, 01:05:55 AM »
So they lose a worthless lease.

Batteries clearly work.  EVs are clearly going to be less expensive to own than ICEVs.  Electricity is clearly going to become less expensive.

A company that can't understand that is in deep denial and is risking its future.  It's time to stop spending on exploration.  Sell what you've got as long as you've got it.  And morph into a new type of business like Statoil has done.

A new type of business ? Are they making their money from something other than oil and gas ? Is Total? Until a significant portion has f their revenue is from other sectors they still are and behave like gas and oil companies
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Susan Anderson

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1954 on: December 01, 2017, 01:34:08 AM »
Neven, from you fellow "idiot" I thank you from the bottom of my heart. I just made a list in a rant of what is wrong over here, which is fairly comprehensive fwiw. Sick at heart, but grateful for this largely loveable community, and with apologies for the further OT. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/opinion/trump-putin-pomerantsev-show.html#permid=25031665

how do we change over from the multiple violations of humanity, not to mention human rights, emanating from the "new" order. How can we hope to keep our planet habitable? How can we stop trickle up? How can we stop criminalizing poverty, old age, and ill health? Voter suppression, intimidation, and cheating? The (not so) new Jim Crow embodied in the school to prison pipeline, racial profiling in policing, private for-profit prisons, and all the ills of human history before people were able to organize and get a better deal? Certainly not by disabling and attacking unions and going full steam ahead with re-establishing privilege as the only criterion for what should be universal voting rights.

Shutting down the freedom of the press, killing the messenger of science and knowledge, removing universal quality public education, helping college become less affordable, penalizing expertise, all seem fine with the desperate people in red states. They're busy blaming victims.

Oily self-profiting preachers from whom one wouldn't buy a used car? No problem. The Gospels? Fuhgettabahtit, unborn babies have the only right to life. Fancy efficient killing machines unchained (Mad Max, here we come)? The better to take over the country if anyone dares to demand fair and free elections.

Kochtopus-ready anarchy, shamelessly making America Small and Mean.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1955 on: December 01, 2017, 02:50:48 AM »
If it is going to cost you $80 or more per barrel to bring Arctic oil to market and the US can flood the market with <$50/barrel shale oil where's the win?

As I wrote, if the bet fails, which it's 99% likely to do, you get the same outcome as if you didn't bet.

So you'd be stupid not to take the bet.


On the even shorter term, a lease has value on the books. Lose the lease and you have to write it off the books. That means the book value of your company has fallen, and thus the stock price is likely to follow. People are asking questions about the book value of leases in the oil industry, but to date the oil majors haven't been writing them down yet.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1956 on: December 01, 2017, 03:25:14 AM »
<snip>

People are asking questions about the book value of leases in the oil industry, but to date the oil majors haven't been writing them down yet.

Big oil writes off $US38 billion in assets in September quarter, Energy Information Administration says
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-19/big-oil-writes-off-$38-billion-in-assets-in-september-quarter/6954892

Wyoming oil companies writing off assets due to price drops
http://bakken.com/news/id/250319/wyoming-oil-companies-writing-off-assets-due-price-drops/

Exxon's Big Oil Sands Write-Off Could Help It Dodge SEC Troubles
http://fortune.com/2017/02/23/exxon-mobil-oil-sands-sec/

Abu Dhabi's Taqa Posts $5.2 Billion Loss on Oil Asset Write-Off
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/abu-dhabi-taqa-posts-5-2-billion-loss-on-oil-asset-write-off
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1957 on: December 01, 2017, 05:36:58 AM »
So they lose a worthless lease.

Batteries clearly work.  EVs are clearly going to be less expensive to own than ICEVs.  Electricity is clearly going to become less expensive.

A company that can't understand that is in deep denial and is risking its future.  It's time to stop spending on exploration.  Sell what you've got as long as you've got it.  And morph into a new type of business like Statoil has done.

A new type of business ? Are they making their money from something other than oil and gas ? Is Total? Until a significant portion has f their revenue is from other sectors they still are and behave like gas and oil companies

Statoil just completed its first offshore wind farm using their floating wind turbine towers.  They are now in conversation with California to expand their market into CA's excellent wind resources that are over water too deep for fixed towers.

Statoil has said that they expect oil demand to peak by 2020 and the start a decline.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1958 on: December 03, 2017, 03:36:02 AM »
“Here's the part of the tax bill that bought @lisamurkowski’s vote -- directing the Interior Dept. to lease nearly 1,000,000 acres of vulnerable Alaskan wilderness to oil & gas companies”
https://twitter.com/natlsciservice/status/936760249960337409
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1959 on: December 03, 2017, 06:18:58 AM »
The actual bill will be written behind closed doors by a small number of senators and representatives.  Then it just gets voted up or down with no revisions possible.

We really don't know what little surprises might be coming into our lives.

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1960 on: December 03, 2017, 03:44:00 PM »
I want to add a few things as a response to several people. First ,shale oil at 50 usd a barrel. They have to much debt to continue that for a long time. Only in the next few years they have to refinance or payback hundreds of billions. They need a much higher price to continue their operations. And somebody ( i think Buddy) was telling that there was no reason anymore for buying a fossil fuel car after 2025. And that would be good. But where are they going to get these cars ? That the price is dropping is not really an argument, because they have never been produced in large quantities. China wants to build 5 milion EV's a year by 2020. Than they need 5 million batteries a year. And who is producing these batteries today. Exactly, nobody. It will cost a lot of recourses to build them, like lithium. And yesterday i bought a little powerbank and some portable solar panels, and that powerbank is also a lithium battery, the batteries for the backlight of my bicycle ( lithium battery), my ipad (lithium battery). If you look at that mega-battery from Tesla in Australia, it's a lithium battery ( and cobalt.....) And another problem, fossil fuel cars are getting cheaper and cheaper. Today you can already by a new car for 10 000 € and less. Productivity gains in combination with outsourcing to cheap countries makes them really cheap. A Dacia Duster you have for 10 000 € new, so who is going to pay 35 000 € for a Tesla model 3. And it's not that the Tesla is looking much better.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1961 on: December 03, 2017, 03:52:23 PM »
Keystone leaks all the time, far more than predicted before construction. Colour me unsurprised.

"The existing 2,147-mile (3,455 km) Keystone system from Hardisty, Alberta, to the Texas coast has had three significant leaks in the United States since it began operating in 2010, including a 5,000-barrel spill this month in rural South Dakota, and two others, each about 400 barrels, in South Dakota in 2016 and North Dakota in 2011.

Before constructing the pipeline, TransCanada provided a spill risk assessment to regulators that estimated the chance of a leak of more than 50 barrels to be “not more than once every seven to 11 years over the entire length of the pipeline in the United States,” according to its South Dakota operating permit.

For South Dakota alone, where the line has leaked twice, the estimate was for a “spill no more than once every 41 years.” 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pipeline-keystone-spills/keystones-existing-pipeline-spills-far-more-than-predicted-to-regulators-idUSKBN1DR1CS

sidd

Shale oil is more viscous than conventional oil and, due to impurities, far more corrosive. Shale oil becomes pourable at temperatures between 24 and 27 °C (75 and 81 °F), while conventional crude oil is pourable at temperatures between −60 to 30 °C (−76 to 86 °F). This property affects shale oil's ability to be transported in existing pipelines and transporting requires the addition of highly flammable deluents or solvents. It is no surprise that pipelines rupture more often as a result.

Tar sand oil is even worse.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1962 on: December 03, 2017, 06:02:34 PM »
Alexander, most car manufacturers have now announced that they will be building EVs.  Look for most manufacturers to be selling at least one EV model by 2020.  GM and Volvo have stated that their future will be all electric cars, as have other manufacturers.

A couple of months ago there were 8 "Gigafactories" worth of new battery manufacturing being built.  Since then Panasonic and a South Korean company (name escapes me now) have announced two more massive GF sized plants.

The cars will appear and there will be batteries for them.  The auto industry has recognized what is happening.

And there is another very major change in how we ride coming over the horizon.  The robotaxi.

Uber recently signed a purchase agreement with Volvo for 24,000 self-driving cars to be delivered between 2019 and 2021.  GM has bought a piece of Lyft and appears to be preparing to go into the robotaxi business.

Most of the cost of taking a taxi is the cost of the driver.  With no drivers, lower "fuel" and insurance costs, and cars that should last 500,000 miles the cost of having someone else's car take you somewhere is likely be considerably less than buying fuel and maintaining your econobox.

The number of privately owned cars may plummet between now and 2030.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1963 on: December 03, 2017, 10:25:26 PM »
First ,shale oil at 50 usd a barrel. They have to much debt to continue that for a long time. Only in the next few years they have to refinance or payback hundreds of billions. They need a much higher price to continue their operations.

The wells that are operating are making profit on every barrel that comes out, otherwise you shut the thing down right away. So if the owner goes bankrupt, someone else will happily buy it and keep it running. It's rather like a mortgage: the house doesn't get destroyed when there's a foreclosure.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1964 on: December 04, 2017, 11:18:00 PM »
Yemen former dictator Saleh killed after turning on the houthis and doing a deal with Saudi. That was quick. Meanwhile Swiss banks cooperating with Saud money grab.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42225574


https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/saudi-money_swiss-banks-step-up-reports-of-suspicious-activity-by-saudi-clients/43725472

sidd

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1965 on: December 06, 2017, 06:11:24 AM »
Wheeler doe not usually comment on Saud, but she looks at the numbers in another context and they are dismal:

https://www.emptywheel.net/2017/12/05/the-ridiculous-and-chilling-ip3-plan-for-saudi-economic-diversification/

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1966 on: December 06, 2017, 05:45:59 PM »
Wheeler doe not usually comment on Saud, but she looks at the numbers in another context and they are dismal:

https://www.emptywheel.net/2017/12/05/the-ridiculous-and-chilling-ip3-plan-for-saudi-economic-diversification/


I wonder if the apparent loss of the planned for trans-Syrian pipeline to Europe might have something to do with the Kingdom's new plans to use much more gas domestically?
Terry

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1967 on: December 07, 2017, 05:28:20 AM »

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1968 on: December 07, 2017, 04:45:15 PM »
Gas prices in the US continue to weake as inventory levels rise.  Combined with a slowing Chinese economy.....that likely spells trouble for oil prices over the next few months at least.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1969 on: December 07, 2017, 08:09:49 PM »
GE to Cut 12,000 Jobs in Its Power Business, citing drop in demand for fossil fuel-based power
General Electric Co. plans to cut 12,000 jobs in its power business as the company’s new leaders look to slash costs and stabilize the beleaguered manufacturer.

The reductions, accounting for about 18 percent of GE Power’s workforce, include both professional and production employees, the company said Thursday in a statement. The world’s largest maker of gas turbines said the unit needs to become leaner as customers turn away from fossil fuel-based energy sources
...
Demand is flagging for GE’s power-generation equipment because of overcapacity, lower utilization, fewer outages and the growth in renewable energy, said Stifel Financial Corp. analyst Robert McCarthy.

“Given the challenges within the global power market, today’s announcement represents an obvious next step in reducing headcount and footprint in order to improve margins and cash flow within the struggling business,” McCarthy said in a note to clients. “Traditional power markets including gas and coal have softened and volumes are down significantly.”
...
GE has been hit hard by weakening demand for new gas-fired electricity generators as the costs of renewables slide. Competitors such as Siemens AG are contending with similar pressures. The Munich-based company last month announced a plan to eliminate about 6,900 positions worldwide and close factories, amid a sharp drop in orders for power-plant equipment.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-is-said-to-plan-12-000-job-cuts-as-new-ceo-revamps-power-unit
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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1970 on: December 07, 2017, 08:23:16 PM »
Buddy, i'm not for sure. But i think the us is lacking the export infrastructure to export that gas. But they are working on it. And demand for gas in China is still going up pretty fast, it's one of the ways to make their air cleaner. And they still use 3,8 billion tonnes of coal per year.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1971 on: December 07, 2017, 09:30:56 PM »
Gas prices in the US continue to weake as inventory levels rise.  Combined with a slowing Chinese economy.....that likely spells trouble for oil prices over the next few months at least.

Slowing Chinese economy: stats on that?

Low gas prices: how does that affect oil prices?

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1972 on: December 07, 2017, 09:52:47 PM »
1). Low gas prices are caused by TOO MUCH INVENTORY.  If you have too much inventory of gasoline, that means the refiners of gasoline will be using LESS oil to TURN INTO GASOLINE.   Less oil used at the refiners....means lower prices at the wellhead because refiners don't need as much....and now producers of oil need to lower their price.

2). China.  I'll send you a couple links later when I get home.  Remind me if I forget...😳
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1973 on: December 08, 2017, 02:06:40 PM »
Oh, I thought you meant gas as in natural gas.

For sure gasoline and oil prices are tightly correlated, with causality both ways.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1974 on: December 10, 2017, 08:42:13 PM »
Well, that didn’t take long.

Kuwait Says Global Oil Cuts Can Halt If Market Balances by June
OPEC and its global allies including Russia may end their production cuts before 2019 if the crude market re-balances by June, Kuwait’s oil minister said.

Russia is keen to end the output-capping deal as early as possible, Issam Almarzooq told Bloomberg on Sunday in Kuwait City. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will study an exit strategy from the global cuts accord at its next meeting in June, he told reporters later.
...
OPEC and its partners agreed on Nov. 30 to keep curbing production until the end of next year, in a bid to drain oversupplied world markets and prop up prices. Crude dropped in the week after their decision to extend the cuts as investors turned attention to expanding U.S. oil production and gasoline stockpiles. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-12-10/kuwait-says-global-oil-cuts-can-halt-if-market-balances-by-june
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1975 on: December 12, 2017, 02:55:10 AM »
Trump to Open the Door for Oil Drilling Off U.S.’s East Coast
• Proposal for Atlantic exploration set to be released soon
• New five-year plan would replace one put in place by Obama
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-12-11/trump-is-said-to-open-door-for-oil-drilling-off-u-s-east-coast
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1976 on: Today at 03:17:51 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/12/italy-declares-state-emergency-gas-explosion-austria

Snow-hit southern Europe could face energy shortages after authorities warned that Austrian pipelines were likely to be out of action for days following an explosion and fire that ripped through a main gas hub near Vienna.

Baumgarten, where the explosion occurred, is a key distribution and reception hub for gas exports and imports, including from Russia, Europe’s biggest gas supplier. In Italy, where rain, snow and extreme cold weather have disrupted traffic in the north-east over the last few days, the country’s industry minister declared a state of emergency due to a lack of gas supplies.

I expect coal and nukes will clamour for subsidies in the wake of this. Hopefully the governments work out that renewables and electrification would be even more robust to supply disruption.