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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2050 on: January 14, 2018, 03:22:20 PM »
There are U.S. laws protecting free speech.  But there are others that forbid corporations from intentionally misleading investors.

Exxon Ramps Up Free Speech Argument in Fighting Climate Fraud Investigations
The oil giant wants a court to block state investigations into whether it misled investors on climate change, while it continues to promote a degree of uncertainty.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13012018/exxon-climate-change-investor-fraud-investigations-lawsuit-free-speech-new-york
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2051 on: January 14, 2018, 04:32:07 PM »
Bob:

RE evolution of EV's video.  That is why I believe the LAST ICE PASSENGER CAR sold in the US by a large car company will likely take place by the end of 2025.

So....regarding some "psychology" of users:

1)  By the time frame of 2020 - 2022....buyers are going to be thinking:  "Why would I pay the same amount or more for an ICE car that is (a) more expensive to maintain, and (2) more expensive to drive, and (3) will be worthless in 3 years if I want to sell it?

2)  And by 2023 - 2025.....there will be a BOATLOAD (Donnie might say a "shitload"  ;)) of cars to choose from.

Granted....there will STILL be some people that want an ICE car....just as there are people who still want a "land line".  But for car manufacturers......there WON'T BE ENOUGH STRAGGLERS (late adopters) to warrant building ICE cars.


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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2052 on: January 14, 2018, 05:23:32 PM »
Quote
I believe the LAST ICE PASSENGER CAR sold in the US by a large car company will likely take place by the end of 2025.

I think it more likely 2035 or 2040.  Sometime well after 2025.  There are going to be holdouts.  A few people who will resist just like some were very late to give up horses for cars.

There might be no more ICEVs being manufactured by 2035 but car companies may well warehouse several thousand new cars for future sales.  We saw that happen with film SLR cameras.  Sales reached a point where it no longer supported an active manufacturing line but some number of further sales were expected.

Before ICEV sales drop to <5% of new car sales we need

1) long range EVs selling for less than similar featured ICEVs
2) an extensive rapid charging station system
3) charge outlets for those who don't currently have one where they park (either day or night)
4) a switch in owner attitudes, an acceptance of and preference for EVs
5) retooling of assembly lines for EVs and creation of massive battery manufacturing capacity.

I just don't see that happening in seven years.  It feels very possible in seventeen years.

Now, if we change the topic to robo-vehicles then I can see the timeline shortening.  Robotaxi companies will purchase EVs and will install the rapid charging stations they need to operate.  Overall we will need far fewer vehicles and ICEV sales will plummet.

ICEVs might be basically done by 2030 in many parts of the world.  I have no idea how rapidly robotaxi fleets might be established in less developed parts of the world.  Perhaps they will operate with used or inexpensive EVs for some years after the transition has happened in more developed parts.


Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2053 on: January 14, 2018, 06:13:35 PM »
Quote
I just don't see that happening in seven years.  It feels very possible in seventeen years.

It's eight years, not seven (not a big deal....but every year counts...I'm talking about the end of 2025).

Think of it this way....and think about YOURSELF:

Would you buy an ICE car (or ANY CAR) that....

1)  Costs 10% MORE to purchase than an EV car
2)  Costs two times more to maintain (no tuneups....no oil changes....no air filter changes....brakes last longer...etc)
3)  Costs TWICE as much to fill with gas....as it would to "fill" with electricity.
4) EV's by the end of 2025 will likely have a range of 250 - 600 miles.

Again....I know there are still people with "land lines"....but we're not talking about $50 phones here.  The large manufacturers are NOT going to manufacture cars that only sell 2,000 cars a year...and are on the DOWNWARD SLIDE.

There will....of course...be SMALL SPECIALTY car shops that likely sell in the US after 2025....but I honestly can't see LARGE COMPANIES selling them after that here in the US.

Here's something to look at and think about.  It is two pictures of 5th Avenue in New York City.  Same street....taken 13 years apart.  In 1900 you could see ONE CAR.  Buy 1913 you couldn't see ANY HORSES or Carriages.

Keep in mind I'm not saying there won't be any ICE cars on the road.  I'm only saying there won't be any NEW PASSENGER CAR SALES AFTER 2025.

It will be an interesting ride.....and FOR SURE it is a "future event" that I (or anyone else) doesn't know FOR SURE what the outcome will be.  But I think it will come much faster than most people think.



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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2054 on: January 14, 2018, 06:42:14 PM »
“2)  And by 2023 - 2025.....there will be a BOATLOAD... of cars to choose from.”

There will be many EV models available, but most likely not in the volumes needed to replace the 65 million cars manufactured worldwide today.  (Minus any volume decrease generated by the rise in vehicles shared autonomously.  And Hyperloops. ;)

As you say, the demand may be there... but the supply likely will not — new battery production, EV design and manufacturing processes will take a few more years to shake out the old car companies who waited too long to increase EV production beyond the minimum required to comply with countries’ laws, and allow new companies to grow their production.

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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2055 on: January 14, 2018, 07:02:12 PM »
Quote
There will be many EV models available, but most likely not in the volumes needed to replace the 65 million cars manufactured worldwide today.

I'm only talking about the 11 - 13 million cars sold IN THE US per year.

The supply blockage....if there will be one.....would be on the battery side.  But again...we're talking about 8 years from now....and the ramp up is logarithmic....and the world is adding battery factories at an increasing rate.  As you are likely aware....there are MANY THINGS "in the works" on the battery side which will push the cost DOWN....and the efficiency UP...some which will bear fruit, and some that won't. 

It's going to be interesting to see....... no matter how it turns out. 
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2056 on: January 14, 2018, 07:23:42 PM »
Eight years sounds only a bit short, based on simple projections of exponentials. We're starting at 1.5% of US market share.

If EV car sales grow 50% annually, and the number of cars sold stay the same, then it'll take about 10 years to get to 85%.

If we assume robotaxis make a big dent in car ownership, so that in eight years we halve the number of cars being sold -- but we still assume that EVs grow 50% annually, then in eight years we get to a bit over 75% market share. However, I'd expect that those who'd buy EVs have a lot of overlap with those who'd not buy a car and just use robotaxis, so that 50% growth in EVs sounds unlikely in this scenario.

Using the Bloomberg 30% year-over-year figure and a halving in cars, it takes 13 years to get to about 75% EVs. Which is 2030.

Under any of those scenarios, oil companies are in deep shit.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2057 on: January 14, 2018, 09:50:34 PM »
My favorite resource, The New Yorker, employs a Texan writer, Lawrence Wright, who has produced an interesting article about the oil industry. (A few months back, his writing on Texas politics (taken over by what is no longer in actual fact a majority, the rightist Republicans) was outstanding.)

"The Dark Bounty of Texas Oil" https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/01/01/the-dark-bounty-of-texas-oil

Don't get me wrong, I'm entirely terrified about big fossil's power, but this provides useful background and ends on an intelligent and literate evaluation of humanity and civilization that was to me a tonic in these judgmental days. (Though I am wrong to imply that he does not condemn the artificial heist of wealth that big oil has represented in Texas.)

Quote
After the boom, Texas was revealed to be a society built on greed and impermanence, a civilization that was here to take, not to give. It was odd, because Texans were always talking about how much they loved the state, but I couldn’t find much evidence of that love.
....
[Houston], which has one of the highest concentrations of immigrants in America, has finally begun to diversify its economy as well. For the past 37 years, Klineberg has been conducting an annual survey of the city’s economy. When he began his work, oil and gas accounted for more than 80% of Houston’s economy; now it’s 40. Houston’s medical center—the largest such facility in the world—has more than 100,000 workers, in 59 institutions, occupying an area larger than Chicago’s Loop. Houston’s port is now the second largest in the country. Between 2000 and 2014, the city added more than 700,000 jobs, almost twice the number of jobs created in New York City.
....
The rest of the state has followed Houston’s economic lead, and Texas is at last starting to become less reliant on oil. In addition to its wind-turbine farms, the state has expanded in manufacturing, aviation, aerospace, defense, and biotechnology. Austin has America’s fourth-largest concentration of startups. San Antonio has become a center for cyber-security, with more than eighty firms in the city. Although Texas has only nine per cent of the nation’s population, it accounted for at least a quarter of the new jobs created between 2000 and 2014. The infamous boom-and-bust cycle is less severe. The Federal Reserve Bank in Dallas reports that oil and mineral-related revenue makes up only five per cent of the state’s total tax collection, half of what it was in the nineteen-eighties. One of the state’s most respected economists, Angelos Angelou, argues that low oil prices are actually good for the state economy, a proposition that would have been heresy only a few years ago.

Here's an OT bonus: World energy turned into sound: https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2018/01/08/listen-1200-years-of-earths-climate-transformed-into-sound/



Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2058 on: January 14, 2018, 09:52:46 PM »
Eight years DOES certainly sound "quick".  And it is.  Here's a paragraph from a recent article (with a link at the bottom of the page):

============================================================
The bottom line is this: EVs will be better and cheaper than ICEVs at the value end of the biggest volume segments (small SUV and compact car) by 2022. At the higher-priced end of these segments, EVs will already be at parity by 2019. By 2024–2025, EVs will outcompete on both features and price in pretty much every vehicle segment (except rocket ships).
============================================================

Keep in mind that battery cost dropped by 77% from 2010 to 2016.  The cost is headed to below $100 per KWH sometime in the next 8 years.  Tesla thinks they are going to get there much quicker than that....by the end of NEXT YEAR (and yes...Tesla over promises...that's why I am being "conservative").

One of the interesting things to me....will be a "transition period" where new car buyers may "balk" at buying an ICE car (or ANY CAR) .....and instead wait a couple more years to buy their first EV.  I think that the "meat" of that transition period could start in the early 2020's and be 2 or 3 years for many buyers.

It is that period when the buyer thinks:  "Hmmmmm....its now 2020ish, and EV's now cost the same as ICE vehicles.  Do I really want to plunk down $20K - $100K on a car that is going to be almost worthless in 3 years?  Or do I wait a couple more years as the price continues to drop on EV's?"

During this "transition period" the DEMAND for ICE cars will be sinking QUICKLY. But it may NOT all transition to EV's IMMEDIATELY.  There may be a couple... 2 - 3 years....where some of those buyers balk at buying anything.....knowing that prices are dropping on EV's, and so are values on ICE cars.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/25/timeline-electric-vehicle-revolution-via-lower-battery-prices-supercharging-lower-battery-prices/
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 10:03:08 PM by Buddy »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2059 on: January 14, 2018, 10:01:23 PM »
Quote
Under any of those scenarios, oil companies are in deep shit.

If GM really does put self-driving Lyft cars on the road in the next 18 months then we should be able to see the end of oil horizon.

Range and rapid charge outlets will not be as important for urban robotaxi systems as for privately owned cars.  The taxi company will just need the ability to recharge its cars during lower demand times. 

A 100 mile range is probably enough.  NYC taxis average just under 200 miles per day.  A mid-morning and mid-afternoon top up along with an overnight full charge should do the job. 

If we have effective robotaxi service in major cities in a few years then we are likely to see cities start to limit private car use in the central part of the city.  Large parking lots at the edges of cities where people can leave their personal cars and transfer to a robotaxi.  And then we'll see pressure to move the robotaxi service into the suburbs and countryside.

AAA study - the cost of driving a medium sized sedan = $8,171 for 15,000 miles per year = $0.54/mile.  If robotaxis can provide service for 80% or less then I think we'll rapid movement from personal vehicles.  And if people are willing to ride share the cost could be half or less that of single use.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2060 on: January 15, 2018, 05:18:14 PM »
Bad (but not unexpected) development: the burning Sanchi oil tanker exploded and sank.

Burning oil tanker sinks in the East China Sea
Quote
An oil tanker burning in the East China Sea has sunk a week after it collided with another vessel, according to Chinese state media.

The Panama-registered Sanchi tanker sank Sunday after an explosion rocked it and sent flames shooting up, CCTV reported.

The Sanchi was carrying 136,000 tons -- around 1 million barrels -- of oil from Iran to South Korea when it collided with the Hong Kong-registered CF Crystal freighter in the East China Sea on January 7. ...
http://www.wral.com/oil-tanker-burning-in-the-east-china-sea-capsizes/17256757/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2061 on: January 16, 2018, 05:11:36 PM »
Too much debt means a SIGNIFICANT slowdown is in China's future.  Hard to predict WHEN...but it's definitely coming.  If it happens to come this year or next....when Texas is fracking their hearts out.....that would be a NASTY double whammy.... and may upset the apple cart.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-heading-toward-debt-crisis-110000251.html
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2062 on: January 16, 2018, 07:41:40 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/16/eu-declares-war-on-plastic-waste-2030

EU declaring war on single-use plastics. That’s only good for a small percentage (most oil is for transport, most gas for heating and electricity) but it’s just an added strain on the industry.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2063 on: January 16, 2018, 08:03:42 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/16/eu-declares-war-on-plastic-waste-2030

EU declaring war on single-use plastics. That’s only good for a small percentage (most oil is for transport, most gas for heating and electricity) but it’s just an added strain on the industry.

But a huge win for the oceans and the environment!
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2064 on: January 16, 2018, 08:10:45 PM »
Definitely.

I've picked up so many plastic bags on the beach (mostly from local retailers).

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2065 on: January 16, 2018, 08:17:56 PM »
The bottles could be replaced by glass. And a little fee on the bottle. If somebody drops him, somebody will pick him up to collect the fee. But if you look in the supermarket, almost everything has some plastic on it. If you have to put everything in hard plastic or glass. You have to clean them every time.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2066 on: January 16, 2018, 08:42:04 PM »
Water bottles have been one of the worst offenders since forever, and you can't even get moderately aware people to give them up. Even when it is pointed out that plastics are carcinogenic several different ways, particularly if you drink from a bottle that has gotten quite warm. Incinerated plastics are lethal. There is no shoreline anywhere near civilization that is not littered with a wide variety of disposable packaging. /rant over

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2067 on: January 16, 2018, 09:11:48 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/16/eu-declares-war-on-plastic-waste-2030

EU declaring war on single-use plastics. That’s only good for a small percentage (most oil is for transport, most gas for heating and electricity) but it’s just an added strain on the industry.
The policy against single-use plastic is not really about oil and gas - it is about what happens to it after use - especially in the oceans and into the ocean food chain, so aprt of a general campaign about dumping plastic waste into the environment.
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2068 on: January 16, 2018, 10:41:33 PM »
The intention of the policy is one thing, but it has a wider effect as well.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2069 on: January 16, 2018, 10:46:30 PM »
fwiw, plastics are one product of fossil extraction, a different stage of the cracking process. Thought I'd eddicate m'self, it's not quite as simple as I thought it was. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=34&t=6

Quote
Although crude oil is a source of raw material (feedstock) for making plastics, it is not the major source of feedstock for plastics production in the United States. Plastics are produced from natural gas, feedstocks derived from natural gas processing, and feedstocks derived from crude oil refining. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is unable to determine the specific amounts or origin of the feedstocks that are actually used to manufacture plastics in the United States. ....

be cause

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2070 on: January 16, 2018, 10:57:25 PM »
Funny that , in this world of single use plastics , the greater threat to oceans is our multi-use manmade fibres in clothes . The fibre fragments finding their way into our oceans primarily from washing may be
a similar tonnage to the visible plastic that is causing such a fuss .
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2071 on: January 16, 2018, 10:58:10 PM »
The estimate I've seen is that about 5% of oil and gas is for plastics.

I learned that natural gas was a major feedstock when that plant in Houston blew up after Harvey, knocking out a large percentage of US plastic production. Until then I'd been under the incorrect impression that plastic was largely from oil.

Bernard

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2072 on: January 17, 2018, 12:23:13 AM »
Funny that , in this world of single use plastics , the greater threat to oceans is our multi-use manmade fibres in clothes . The fibre fragments finding their way into our oceans primarily from washing may be a similar tonnage to the visible plastic that is causing such a fuss .

Impressive, but difficult to believe, figure. Do you have source for this? Article? Scientific paper?
[Found this : https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/20/microfibers-plastic-pollution-oceans-patagonia-synthetic-clothes-microbeads]
« Last Edit: January 17, 2018, 12:32:41 AM by Bernard »

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2073 on: January 17, 2018, 05:13:01 PM »
New NASA Study Solves Climate Mystery, Confirms Methane Spike Tied to Oil and Gas

"the team showed that about 17 teragrams per year of the increase is due to fossil fuels, another 12 is from wetlands or rice farming, while fires are decreasing by about 4 teragrams per year. The three numbers combine to 25 teragrams a year—the same as the observed increase." I wonder whether that decrease in fire emissions will continue.

The biggest takeaway: ""Leaking and venting of unburned gas—which is mostly methane—makes natural gas even worse for the climate than coal."

Another: "A study in March last year found that natural gas power plants put out between 20 and 120 times more methane pollution than previously believed, due in part to accidental leaks and in part to deliberate "venting" by companies". i.e. the stuff leaks all the way from the wellhead to the end user equipment.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/01/16/nasa-study-resolves-climate-mystery-confirms-methane-spike-ties-oil-gas
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 07:33:04 PM by rboyd »

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2074 on: January 19, 2018, 03:12:38 PM »
Greed kills....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/oil-eases-as-rising-u-s-output-offsets-continued-stockpile-drop

Right on time....as price increases, the Texas frackers increase production.  If OPEC is going to support the price by cutting.....the frackers will be more than happy to step in and increase production.

As always....the cure for high prices is "higher prices" until additional production kicks in (now).  Same thing happens the other way:  The cure for low prices is LOWER PRICES until production decreases.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2075 on: January 19, 2018, 06:12:29 PM »
Quote
Right on time....as price increases, the Texas frackers increase production.  If OPEC is going to support the price by cutting.....the frackers will be more than happy to step in and increase production.

That sounds to me as if the oil price ceiling is set.  And anyone who isn't an idiot should be able to see that peak demand is only a few years away.  EVs are ramping up rapidly.

Sounds to me as if it's time for smart money to get out of oil.  Especially out of any company that is spending significant money on exploration.

Another cap is the recent very large to huge Alaska North Slope oil discovery.  This would not be expensive oil to bring to market.

I think the Arctic is fairly safe from offshore wells.  The Russians may screw around a little but they don't have a lot of money to waste.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2076 on: January 19, 2018, 07:16:50 PM »
Meet the idiots.
Norway continues to search for oil and gas in the Barents Sea, where most of Norway's undiscovered resources are. Their government has a climate policy that depends on other countries leaving fossil resources in the ground, while they won't.

Here's a recent article with, as they write, a small environmental victory for the small parties:
http://petro.no/kommunikasjonsproblemet-koster-industrien-dyrt/193025
Some parts doesn't translate well, I could translate all of that crap but here are their main points:
Quote
According to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate's fresh analysis,

    Production increases and approaches record levels by 2023.
    Investments increase and form the basis for a new peak in 2019-2020.
    Exploration activity takes place over the next five years.

Briefly summarized; It looks pretty good.
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2077 on: January 19, 2018, 07:57:11 PM »
Quote
That sounds to me as if the oil price ceiling is set.  And anyone who isn't an idiot should be able to see that peak demand is only a few years away.  EVs are ramping up rapidly.

OPEC Frets About New Flood Of US Oil
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/09c8ac86-be7b-3d02-8044-ba3cefa3ad68/opec-frets-about-flood-of.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2078 on: January 19, 2018, 07:58:01 PM »
I wonder if the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate staff is noticing all the EVs on Norway's roads?


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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2079 on: January 19, 2018, 08:28:22 PM »
Definately Bob, for years.
https://www.aftenbladet.no/aenergi/i/GjOd9/Stavanger-ONS-Tesla-party
It's an old article (2014) but in English. Bente Nyland was there.
http://www.npd.no/en/About-us/Organisation/Management/
I wouldn't be surprised if Bente Nyland drove a Model X herself. Maybe all of them do?

Edit; while I'm at it, never noticed that they provide their news in English.
http://www.npd.no/en/news/News/2018/75-new-production-licences-in-APA-2017/
Quote
Today, 16 January, 34 companies will be offered a total of 75 new production licences on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Never before have this many production licences been awarded in an APA round (Awards in Pre-defined Areas), and never before have this many applications been submitted.

And this one as well:
http://www.npd.no/en/news/News/2018/The-Shelf-2017/
Quote
Never before has so much gas been sold from the Norwegian shelf as was the case in 2017. Oil production was down slightly; nevertheless, overall production rose for the fourth straight year.
Quote
“The projects now being approved generally have good profitability and can tolerate an oil price as low as 30‐40 dollars per barrel,” says Nyland.

After several years of reduced investments, the decline is now levelling off. In 2018, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate expects investments to be around NOK 122 billion, about the same level as last year. In 2019, investments are expected to rise to just under NOK 140 billion.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 08:48:21 PM by Sleepy »
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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2080 on: January 19, 2018, 08:56:38 PM »
Probably they keep drilling because they know there will still be much demand for a long time. Let's assume they can change today's car production of 65 million cars a year by EV's. Than it will still take 20 years to replace today's carpark. And in the US almost every person has a car. That means there is still much potential to sell these fossil fuel cars at other places on this planet. Or they have to outlaw the sales of these cars. But how would they be able to do that ? There are plenty countries that want to sell that oil.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2081 on: January 19, 2018, 09:49:53 PM »
Belize bans oil activity to protect its barrier reef
Quote
Some good news for the new year: in what has been called a huge step forward in protecting oceans and marine life, the Belize government has announced bold legislation to end oil activity in all of its waters.

The move is designed to protect the fragile Belize Barrier Reef world heritage site, the second-largest in the world after Australia’s and home to 1,400 species, including endangered hawksbill turtles, manatees, rays and six threatened species of shark. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2018/jan/14/belize-bans-oil-activity-to-protect-reef-diving-tourism-belize-barrier-reef
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2082 on: January 19, 2018, 11:37:20 PM »
Quote
Than it will still take 20 years to replace today's carpark. And in the US almost every person has a car.

It will take a couple of decades to get most ICEVs off roads.  But the impact of EVs will be felt faster than a simple car count.  In the US about 50% of all miles driven are in cars five years old and newer.  Cars 5 to 20+ years old drive the other ~50%.

We should reach a point (2025?) when essentially all car sales are EVs.  Over the next five years the amount of petroleum used for light vehicles will drop 50%.  And it will have already dropped over the 2018 to 2025 period as EVs captured higher percentages of new car sales.

By 2030 we could be looking at oil use for light vehicles down to 25% or less what it is today.  That amount can be supplied by the least expensive producers.  (A couple of Middle Eastern countries.)

When we get to the point at which petroleum use is down to 25% or less of today's level we will start to see some strange things happen.  Refineries will be closing.  Gas stations will become fewer.  It will be harder to find repair shops for ICEVs.

There will be used EVs that will pay for themselves in gas savings.  A $5,000 used EV financed for 3 years at 4% will cost less than $150 in payments.  For, at most, a few dollars a month people could leave their problematic high mileage ICEV at the crusher and drive a reliable EV.

I don't see a gradual downslope for ICEVs.  It will be somewhat linear for a period and then likely a quick downturn to zero.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2083 on: January 20, 2018, 08:39:03 PM »
Quote
Than it will still take 20 years to replace today's carpark. And in the US almost every person has a car.

It will take a couple of decades to get most ICEVs off roads.  But the impact of EVs will be felt faster than a simple car count.  In the US about 50% of all miles driven are in cars five years old and newer.  Cars 5 to 20+ years old drive the other ~50%.

We should reach a point (2025?) when essentially all car sales are EVs.  Over the next five years the amount of petroleum used for light vehicles will drop 50%.  And it will have already dropped over the 2018 to 2025 period as EVs captured higher percentages of new car sales.
...

And don’t forget the biggest petrol hogs: big trucks.  Electric trucks are so much cheaper to operate — when they start rolling off the line in the next year or two, trucking fleets will snap them up immediately and order more.  Huge changes on the way.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2084 on: January 20, 2018, 10:19:56 PM »
Electric transit buses should be rapidly adopted.  Buses have about a 12 year useful life so there will be lots of opportunities to consider electric.  And if the consideration is rational diesel buses will quickly go away.

Same for garbage trucks and urban/suburban delivery vehicles.  Cost plus noise plus air pollution will all be drivers.

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2085 on: January 20, 2018, 10:37:17 PM »
Quote
Than it will still take 20 years to replace today's carpark. And in the US almost every person has a car.

It will take a couple of decades to get most ICEVs off roads.  But the impact of EVs will be felt faster than a simple car count.  In the US about 50% of all miles driven are in cars five years old and newer.  Cars 5 to 20+ years old drive the other ~50%.

We should reach a point (2025?) when essentially all car sales are EVs.  Over the next five years the amount of petroleum used for light vehicles will drop 50%.  And it will have already dropped over the 2018 to 2025 period as EVs captured higher percentages of new car sales.
...

And don’t forget the biggest petrol hogs: big trucks.  Electric trucks are so much cheaper to operate — when they start rolling off the line in the next year or two, trucking fleets will snap them up immediately and order more.  Huge changes on the way.

And do you know something about the price of these electrical trucks ? If they are much cheaper to operate. That is something they like to hear. That could lift demand quickly. But if you take everything together it will lift demand for batteries in large numbers. And you can say batteries become cheaper and cheaper. But most of them are companies, why should they not try to make a bigger profit if they get the possibility ? And that bill will probably move further to the small car buyer. Maybe not bad at all, fewer cars on the road. I sold my last car in 2000, my bike and the bus, train, airplane bring me at any place i have to be.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 11:04:09 PM by Alexander555 »

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2086 on: January 20, 2018, 11:20:00 PM »
If battery production prices drop we expect EV prices to drop (or capability to increase) because of capitalism. And that’s what we’re seeing in fact.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2087 on: January 21, 2018, 01:24:45 AM »
Quote
Than it will still take 20 years to replace today's carpark. And in the US almost every person has a car.

It will take a couple of decades to get most ICEVs off roads.  But the impact of EVs will be felt faster than a simple car count.  In the US about 50% of all miles driven are in cars five years old and newer.  Cars 5 to 20+ years old drive the other ~50%.

We should reach a point (2025?) when essentially all car sales are EVs.  Over the next five years the amount of petroleum used for light vehicles will drop 50%.  And it will have already dropped over the 2018 to 2025 period as EVs captured higher percentages of new car sales.
...

And don’t forget the biggest petrol hogs: big trucks.  Electric trucks are so much cheaper to operate — when they start rolling off the line in the next year or two, trucking fleets will snap them up immediately and order more.  Huge changes on the way.

And do you know something about the price of these electrical trucks ? If they are much cheaper to operate. That is something they like to hear. That could lift demand quickly. But if you take everything together it will lift demand for batteries in large numbers. And you can say batteries become cheaper and cheaper. But most of them are companies, why should they not try to make a bigger profit if they get the possibility ? And that bill will probably move further to the small car buyer. Maybe not bad at all, fewer cars on the road. I sold my last car in 2000, my bike and the bus, train, airplane bring me at any place i have to be.

Quote
Tesla Semi, the automaker's newly unveiled electric big-rig truck, will have a base price of $150,000. Tesla's lowest-priced model is expected to travel 300 miles on a single charge, while the longer-range truck will have a 500-mile range and cost $180,000.

New diesel tractors range in price from about  $130,000 to $180,000.

Tesla is setting up charge stations for their tractors.  They are guaranteeing an electricity cost of $0.07/kWh.

Quote
why should they not try to make a bigger profit if they get the possibility

Competition eventually minimizes profits.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2088 on: January 21, 2018, 02:59:31 PM »
Quote
Tesla CEO Elon Musk claims a near 20% total cost of operations savings over a diesel truck, making the Semi $1.26 per mile to operate versus a standard truck's estimate of $1.51 per mile.
http://www.thedrive.com/sheetmetal/16397/teslas-semi-pricing-is-surprisingly-attractive-to-trucking-industry

Tesla is guaranteeing the truck against breakdown for 1 million miles. (And “even running on two of the four motors, it will still beat a diesel truck.”)
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2089 on: January 21, 2018, 03:21:02 PM »
One of the things most interesting to me is that battery powered trucks will be able to maintain speed while climbing mountains, fully loaded.

The end to creeping along behind a large truck struggling to get up a slope.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2090 on: January 21, 2018, 06:14:02 PM »
In Montreal over the holidays I saw, as usual, the snow-clearing operations: a half dozen diesel tractor-trailers following a diesel-powered snowblower, so the snowblower can go at its top speed (about walking pace) and never stop. The trucks then haul off the snow to the dump area, and head back for more.

Extremely noisy, smelly, and expensive. Electric tractors can’t cone soon enough.

(There’s also all the snowplows making a neat pile for the snowblower to pick up, also all noisy and smelly.)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2091 on: January 23, 2018, 07:49:39 PM »
California.

Another East Bay city sues oil companies over climate change
Quote
RICHMOND — Accusing the oil industry of concealing that it knew long ago that gasoline and oil use was warming up the planet, Richmond has joined the ranks of cities and counties suing oil companies to cover the cost of shoring up shorelines from rising sea levels.

Richmond  — home to the Chevron oil refinery, largest in the Bay Area — named Chevron, Shell, Exxon-Mobil, BP, Conoco Phillips and 24 other oil, gas and coal companies in a lawsuit filed Monday in Contra Costa County Superior Court.

The lawsuit alleges that the oil companies knew for 50 years that greenhouse gases from widespread fossil fuel use would contribute to rising sea levels, but the industry spent large sums on public relations campaigns to hide the truth.

“The fossil fuel industry could have taken steps to transition to a lower carbon future, but they didn’t,” Richmond Mayor Tom Butt said. “Instead, they continue to spend billions fighting public policies intended to reduce greenhouse gases, even in some cases, while their own assets are endangered by rising seas.”

Richmond is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels because it has 32 miles of shoreline, more than any city in the Bay Area, as well as 3,000 acres of waterfront parks, Butt said.

Oakland and San Francisco announced similar lawsuits in September that accused the oil companies of contributing to a public nuisance that will cost huge sums to deal with. ...
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2018/01/22/another-east-bay-city-sues-oil-companies-over-climate-change/

Edit:  copy of the legal complaint: 
https://www.sheredling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Richmond-Intro.pdf
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 07:57:58 PM by Sigmetnow »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2092 on: January 23, 2018, 08:09:06 PM »
California.

Another East Bay city sues oil companies over climate change


I thought the way it worked in the USA was that the interested parties all came together and launched a class action against the naughty corporate bums? (as in Tobacco?) By this the courts had to take more notice.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2093 on: January 23, 2018, 10:14:31 PM »
California.

Another East Bay city sues oil companies over climate change


I thought the way it worked in the USA was that the interested parties all came together and launched a class action against the naughty corporate bums? (as in Tobacco?) By this the courts had to take more notice.

I imagine they are attacking using different angles, in courts with differing sympathies, to see what will stick.  Once they have a precedent-setting win, the floodgates will open for more lawsuits.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2094 on: January 26, 2018, 02:41:40 PM »
Meanwhile, crude oil is going up in price, now over $60 for West Texas Intermediate:
Now over $65.
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2095 on: January 26, 2018, 03:13:39 PM »
Is the North Dakota job market picking up?

At these prices, new tar sands make economic sense (for a company that doesn't pay externalities).

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2096 on: January 26, 2018, 03:59:10 PM »
Is the North Dakota job market picking up?

At these prices, new tar sands make economic sense (for a company that doesn't pay externalities).
I read (no source - sorry) some time ago that some US States make companies put
real money into clean-up funds. Others allow companies to just make provisions in the accounts. This of course means that when the resource is exhausted or unprofitable they can go into liquidation and then, of course, there ain't a bean to do the clean-up. (Also no money in the company pension fund?) Appalachian coalfields?

In Canada in the tar sands fields, I believe it is real money, but wholly inadequate. In Trumpistan such outcomes have become more likely?

Shocked? Astonished? I don't think so.
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2097 on: January 26, 2018, 04:01:33 PM »
OK there's some provision for cleanup of the site itself. But there's very little provision for the pollution brought from burning the oil, nor for polluting the local waters.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2098 on: January 26, 2018, 04:04:10 PM »
OK there's some provision for cleanup of the site itself. But there's very little provision for the pollution brought from burning the oil, nor for polluting the local waters.

I am sure Scott Pruitt will make it better.
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2099 on: January 26, 2018, 07:23:20 PM »
One of the majors (Shell) says it sees the writing on the wall, and that the end of the fossil fuel era is approaching. I hope this is not just puffery, as when BP attempted to re-brand itself as "Beyond Petroleum). It does make sense for oil majors to focus on becoming renewable energy companies, but this will not be easy for them. Not least, they will be encountering the same problem as utilities- the democratization of energy production and storage as more and more people install PV panels and storage batteries, and EVs.
http://fortune.com/2018/01/24/royal-dutch-shell-lower-oil-prices/