Looks like the Carbon Bubble could pop at any time....
Indeed. We actually have been "popping" for quite some time (since 2009 in the oil market)..... it's just that when we hit a new
LOW and then "counter rally up"..... it just SEEMS like a "new bubble". It's just ONE BIG HUGE BUBBLE that has been popping, one step at a time.
You can see the LARGE "see saw" moves below. After we hit the record high of $147, we have been on a
DOWNWARD TREND ..... with
LOWER LOWS, AND LOWER HIGHS. Not good if you are an oil company.
Oil prices over the last 10 years:UP: ALL TIME HIGH was $147.30 in July 2008
DOWN: Next...a
LOW of $33.87 in winter of 2009
UP: Next ....a
"LOWER HIGH" (lower than the high of $147) of $115 in April 2011
DOWN: Next .... a
"LOWER LOW" (lower than previous low of $33.87) of $27ish in Jan 2016
UP: We are currently in the next
"LOWER HIGH" move up. The last intermediate high was at $115.
DOWN: How low will we go AFTER we finish our current "counter rally" up?
We should be getting pretty close to the end of this current move up to a
"LOWER HIGH")..... but you never know for sure. There is still a lot of room between here and $115.
Then after our current
COUNTER RALLY UP ..... a move lower is coming. And as our good folks in the Permian Basin continue to crank up the oil rigs.... that additional supply will produce lower prices.
Greed kills.I'm
NOT as bearish as Tony Seba (he predicts that oil could go down to $25ish). I'm conservative, I'm looking for something on the order of $35 - $40. Could it get down to $25? Sure it could. Let's face it .....
NOBODY thought oil was going to get up to $147 in 2008. Prices usually go above where people think they are heading on the way up ......
AND ..... lower than most people think they will go on the down side. And with every passing month, a little bit more of renewable energy sources are also eating into any upside that oil would have had
WITHOUT renewable energy.
But for now.....we have to finish out counter rally up.
I hate to think what will happen to short little Vladi in Russia when prices head south again. His oligarch pals are not going to be overly thrilled with him.... and the good Russian people will
DEFINITLEY not be happy.
I'll post a chart in the next day or two if I can find a
GOOD LONG TERM CHART..... that
VISUALLY shows the above.