Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Oil and Gas Issues  (Read 504404 times)

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4283
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #700 on: November 22, 2015, 06:26:44 PM »
UK becomes only G7 country to increase fossil fuel subsidies

Plus we have a "dash for gas":

http://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-uk-pledges-coal-phase-out-by-2025-but-uncertainty-remains

Quote
The UK has announced its intention to close all unabated coal-fired power stations by 2025 and restrict their usage from 2023.

So far so good? On the other hand:

Quote
The promise of a coal phase out by 2025 comes with a significant caveat, however.

[Amber] Rudd stressed that the space left by the demise in coal should be filled by gas — less polluting than coal, but a carbon dioxide-emitting fossil fuel no less. She said:

"Let me be clear, we’ll only proceed if we’re confident that the shift [from coal] to new gas can be achieved within these timescales."

Rudd promised that this switch would be “one of the greatest and most cost-effective contributions we can make to emission reductions in electricity”.

Indeed, the promised coal phase out is contingent upon a shift to gas being possible within the 2025 time scale, Rudd added.

Many observers criticised this approach, suggesting that it was neither cost-effective, nor consistent with meeting the UK’s legally binding climate targets.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #701 on: November 23, 2015, 03:34:33 PM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-companies-brace-big-wave-220000867.html#

Also....on a related note...it looks as though Saudi Arabia IS getting ready to "step in" and put a stop to the drop in oil.  A few months ago...it did NOT look like they would do so....and WITHOUT them stepping in, oil was likely headed to $30 or the high $20's.  But if they do INDEED step in, I would expect oil markets to find their footing....and for oil to be between $40 - $60 over coming months.

There will still be some oil companies that will NOT make it through (those with higher costs....and too much debt to service).

Keep in mind that the death of oil will be a VERY LONG TERM ORDEAL.  Multiple decades....as renewable energy sources continue to gather steam (pun intended) and chip away at fossil fuels.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #702 on: November 23, 2015, 06:21:58 PM »
A Texas Pipeline’s Controversial Path through the Big Bend region of Texas to the Mexico border.
http://www.nbcnews.com/pages/texas-pipeline
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #703 on: November 23, 2015, 10:03:31 PM »
Statoil Sees More Norway Oil Exploration Cuts Amid Arctic Halt
Quote
Norway’s biggest oil explorer and producer is set to drill 16 wells in the country as an operator in 2015, down from 21 last year. It hasn’t drilled in the Barents Sea off Norway’s northern tip this year after a record campaign ended with disappointing results in 2014. Statoil will return in 2017 at the earliest once it’s received new acreage in upcoming licensing rounds, Dodson said.

Statoil and rival oil companies are cutting spending after oil prices slumped. The Stavanger-based company has cut the equivalent of four drilling years by terminating and suspending contracts for several rigs in Norway during the same period, according to Bloomberg calculations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/statoil-sees-more-norway-oil-exploration-cuts-amid-arctic-halt
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17382
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 565
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #704 on: November 24, 2015, 03:53:10 AM »

We will all see soon enough whether the US has the character to leave these news proven oil & gas reserves in the ground:

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/141760/EIA_Shale_Drilling_Boosted_US_Oil_Gas_Reserves_In_2014

Extract: "Reserves of oil and natural gas in the United States shot higher last year, according to government data released Monday, setting records that reveal the extent to which a decade-long drilling boom has transformed the energy landscape. Proved reserves of natural gas rose by 34.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 10 percent, to a record high of 388.8 tcf in 2014, while oil reserves rose 3.4 billion barrels, or nine percent, to 39.9 billion barrels, the highest since 1972, the Energy Information Administration said in a statement."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #705 on: November 24, 2015, 04:23:11 AM »
Oil crash sparks OPEC revolt against Saudis
Quote
A war of words has broken out between OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and disgruntled smaller oil producers like Venezuela and Algeria. The smaller countries want the cartel to hit the brakes on production to help lift depressed oil prices -- and their own struggling economies.

As the leading oil producer, the Saudis hold enormous sway over the oil cartel. Their long term bet is that by keeping oil prices low, they will squeeze American shale oil producers out of the game. That way, the Saudis can again regain market share lost to the U.S.

Just 10 years ago, Saudi Arabia was the world's largest oil producing nation, churning out nearly twice as much crude oil as the U.S. But American output has skyrocketed in recent years thanks to the shale revolution, which has completely reshaped the global energy equation. Today the U.S. produces nearly as much as Saudi Arabia.

The onslaught of U.S. oil has sent prices spiraling from over $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to around $40 a barrel currently.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/23/investing/saudi-arabia-opec-revolt-oil-prices/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #706 on: November 24, 2015, 05:37:06 AM »
Statoil Sees More Norway Oil Exploration Cuts Amid Arctic Halt
Quote
Norway’s biggest oil explorer and producer is set to drill 16 wells in the country as an operator in 2015, down from 21 last year. It hasn’t drilled in the Barents Sea off Norway’s northern tip this year after a record campaign ended with disappointing results in 2014. Statoil will return in 2017 at the earliest once it’s received new acreage in upcoming licensing rounds, Dodson said.

Statoil and rival oil companies are cutting spending after oil prices slumped. The Stavanger-based company has cut the equivalent of four drilling years by terminating and suspending contracts for several rigs in Norway during the same period, according to Bloomberg calculations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/statoil-sees-more-norway-oil-exploration-cuts-amid-arctic-halt

Good news?
 
No, Statoil has their eyes set on next year, when they will present plans for Trestakk and Alfa Central. At the end of 2016, they will decide over the two larger prospects, that really make their mouths water, Castberg (Barents) and Snorre 2040. Investment decisions are expected to follow in early 2017.
http://offshore.no/sak/251297_statoil-bygger-ut-disse-to-feltene

Theta

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 174
  • Grips
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #707 on: November 26, 2015, 09:46:51 PM »
Gail on oil supply and demand:http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/11/23/why-supply-and-demand-doesnt-work-for-oil/

Also some firms appear.to be facing defaults, if this occurs over the next six months, the oil could be left in the ground, possibly a good thing environmentally speaking:http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/oil-companies-brace-for-big-wave-of-debt-defaults.html
Can't think of a signature

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #708 on: November 27, 2015, 06:11:12 AM »
Let's hope for the best, be prepared for the worst.

We've been fed with a lot of overly positive attitudes in my country.
But a poll showed that 80% of us thinks that a plan to end fossil fuel use within 15-20 years is BS. Recent figures shows that 20% of us supports a pure denialist party. Recent figures shows that emissions internally have dropped off by 3% which is explained by the recent mild winters, but we are still increasing our emissions due to consumption and we think that having our most polluting business in Germany (that emits more than our entire nation) is Germanys problem.

But I do hope the dark side will loose.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #709 on: November 28, 2015, 02:47:20 AM »
U.S. Crude Stocks Up for 9th Week, Fuel Supplies Also Rise
Quote
U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a small but unexpected stockpile addition. As it is, the commodity’s stock remains at levels not seen since the 1930s in the face of weak global consumption. Consequently, oil – which was hovering around $110 per barrel just over a year ago – is now struggling to stay above $40. In between, it sunk to a 6½-year low of $38 a barrel.

The report further revealed that refined product inventories – gasoline and distillate – both increased from their previous week levels too, again defying analyst predictions. Meanwhile, refiners scaled up their utilization rates.
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/199337/us-crude-stocks-up-for-9th-week-fuel-supplies-also-rise
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #710 on: November 28, 2015, 04:50:16 AM »
In Sweden, sales of E85 will soon come to an end and the Swedes are migrating to diesel.
Volvo announced that they will stop sales of E85 cars. E85 will soon overtake both petrol and diesel as the most expensive fuel per litre. E85 is already the most expensive fuel for most engines due to higher consumption compared to petrol.

Sales of petrol are still decreasing, but has leveled out and is not dropping as before. Diesel is the cheapest fuel and sales are increasing. More surprising is that sales of heating oil/ fuel oil has increased by 11%. Personally, the last heating oil I used was back in 1988.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #711 on: November 29, 2015, 03:35:41 PM »
Quote
@billmckibben: Look closely. Someone appears to be producing real ads for #exxonknew. Thanks, @BrandalismUK https://t.co/MhBr90jSLR

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/670764128982691841
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

crandles

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2495
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 85
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #712 on: November 30, 2015, 01:35:46 PM »

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #713 on: December 01, 2015, 04:35:13 PM »
Oil Bulls Brace for Repeat of OPEC's Bearish Blow at Meeting
Quote
[West Texas Intermediate crude oil benchmark price] has declined 39 percent in the past year and slipped 5 cents to $41.60 a 8:32 a.m. Futures advanced 5.4 percent during the report week to $42.87.

OPEC’s decision to keep the spigot open has compounded a worldwide surplus of crude. The 12-member organization pumped 32.121 million barrels a day in November, the 18th straight month above its target of 30 million, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. U.S. stockpiles stand at more than 488 million barrels, the highest for this time of year since 1930.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/oil-bulls-brace-for-repeat-of-opec-s-bearish-blow-at-meeting
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #714 on: December 01, 2015, 05:22:00 PM »
The Russian bear is moaning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-29/the-30-oil-cliff-that-economists-see-threatening-russia-in-2016
Quote
“If oil prices fall lower and stay at that low level for longer, risks of fiscal and financial destabilization increase significantly,” Sergey Narkevich, an analyst at PAO Promsvyazbank in Moscow, said by e-mail.

Yet small companies like Lundin Petroleum seems cocky enough. Yes, it's actually a Swedish oil company.
https://www.lundin-petroleum.com/Documents/qr_3_2015_e.pdf
Quote
We will continue to actively explore in our two core areas, Norway and Malaysia. In both countries we will maintain a very
focused and disciplined approach. In 2016 we will be active in three areas; the Utsira High and the southern Barents Sea in
Norway and the Sabah province offshore Malaysia. I am particularly excited about our position in the southern Barents Sea
where we have already made two significant discoveries in addition to two further exploration wells to be drilled this year
(Neiden and Ørnen). Given the leading acreage position we have accumulated in the Loppa High where the majority of the
discoveries have been made in the last few years, I am confident we will find more resources. In addition, with the upcoming
23rd licensing round, mostly covering acreage in the Barents Sea, I have no doubt in my mind that the area will become a very
active exploration region that will undoubtedly lead to commercial development activities. What is even more exciting for me
is that we have just started to “scratch the surface” in this region.

Quote
We are facing challenging times but our Company is indeed very well positioned as we are now entering a new phase of
significant growth led by a great team of people. In my view Lundin Petroleum will come out of this cycle stronger than ever.
As Adolf Lundin used to tell us: “When the going gets tough, the tough get going”. This has never been more true than in
today’s environment.

Edit, sorry for the line breaks, just read the pdf, there's not one single word of AGW in the letter to their shareholders.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #715 on: December 01, 2015, 05:58:36 PM »
Exxon takes aim at Columbia University journalists over climate reports
Quote
ExxonMobil is hurling ethics accusations against a team of Columbia University journalists whose reporting helped stoke calls for probes into whether the company deliberately misled the public about climate change.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2015/11/exxonmobil-climate-change-ethics-allegations-columbia-university-216287
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17382
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 565
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #716 on: December 02, 2015, 04:48:27 PM »
Per the linked article, many experts believe that despite robust demand (meaning high GHG emissions), the current glut in the oil market will not clear before 2017:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/12/02/opec-meeting-idINL8N13R1T120151202

Extract: "But outside the United States the there are few signs of a slowdown in supply prompting many commentators to predict that the glut would not clear before 2017 despite robust demand."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #717 on: December 02, 2015, 04:59:45 PM »
Columbia Dean Issues Forceful Defense Against Exxon's Misconduct Allegations
'I have concluded that your allegations are unsupported by evidence,' Dean Steve Coll wrote in his letter to Exxon executive Kenneth Cohen.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/02122015/columbia-university-exxon-climate-change-research
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #718 on: December 02, 2015, 08:16:49 PM »
Exxon's move down to the $56 - $60 area continues.  Today it has broken down below $80....and I expect the trip down to the mid-to-high $50's to be done in a matter of a week or two.  It will be quick.

Then.....it looks like it will be "poised" for a pretty good "bounce" for a year or two back UP to the $90ish range.

We are witnessing the beginning of the end for oil companies.  It will take decades of pain for them.....20 years?  Really no way to tell....but the direction is CRYSTAL CLEAR.

Here is a link to look at a chart of XOM since the 1990's.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=xom&time=100&startdate=1%2F4%2F1990&enddate=12%2F2%2F2015&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8&x=37&y=13
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #719 on: December 03, 2015, 04:26:42 AM »
WTI settles under $40; Brent ends near 7-year low
Quote
U.S. oil futures sank under $40 a barrel on Wednesday and Brent oil plunged to nearly seven-year low after U.S. government data revealed a 10th straight weekly climb in crude supplies and comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen pointed toward an interest-rate hike by the central bank later this month.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-prices-slip-as-traders-brace-for-bigger-stockpiles-2015-12-02
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #720 on: December 03, 2015, 06:13:47 AM »
And where will we be in twenty years?
Black solid line is the infamous two degree target from the -70's.

Graph nicked and modified from here.
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105004

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #721 on: December 03, 2015, 06:37:51 PM »
The other item RELATED to the drop in fossil fuel companies.....is the BANKS that hold loans/notes MADE TO THEM.

There are a LOT of small and some "mid tier" companies that are now...or will soon be....flat on their back.

Banks are going to take a "hit" in the short run.....because they have NOT reserved enough on their balance sheets for the companies that will be going under.  Please note....I am NOT saying this will be a "crisis" for the banks....just another "negative" for which they have NOT YET accrued enough reserves.

Today (Thursday) in the US equity markets....two of the big losers on a down day are (1) oil and gas companies, and (2) banks.  The big winner today?  RENEWABLE COMPANIES.

Expect that "divergence" between renewable companies.....and oil/gas companies....to continue for the next decade.

In about 2 - 3 years....the O&G companies are going to "fall off the cliff" as far as Wall Street is concerned.  Same for electric utilities.

 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #722 on: December 04, 2015, 04:04:25 PM »
OIL & GAS COMPANIES VS THE STOCK MARKET

Today (Friday) is a good example of what you are going to see a LOT of over the next 5 - 10 years:

On a BIG up day in the US markets....the stock market is up over 1% in the first 30 minutes.....while Exxon and Chevron (the two largest US oil and gas companies) are down more than 1% and 1.5%.

You will see this "divergence" more and more over the coming years.  The "market" has already figured out....that oil and gas is "GOING AWAY" over the coming decades.  Its NOT a matter of IF....just a matter of WHEN.

But the market is also figuring out that having oil and gas "go away".....will be a VERY GOOD THING:

1)  Fewer health problems
2)  Less strife from issues with countries who have most of the oil and gas
3)  Better environment to live
4)  MUCH lower cost of energy as renewables infrastructure is built out

Mr. Market is figuring that all out.....on its own.  And those left "holding the bag" of oil and gas stocks (as well as electric utility stocks) will be in for some sizeable losses.

The other interesting thing to watch for....AND EXPECT....is for a "divergence" between oil and gas companies.....and other "commodity" companies (iron ore, aluminum, concrete, copper, .....other "hard commodities").

I expect many of those other hard commodity companies to perform very WELL over coming years as oil and gas goes down the tubes.  Because the other part of global warming....will be a lot of infrastructure building in coming decades.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Theta

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 174
  • Grips
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #723 on: December 04, 2015, 08:07:37 PM »
OIL & GAS COMPANIES VS THE STOCK MARKET

Today (Friday) is a good example of what you are going to see a LOT of over the next 5 - 10 years:

On a BIG up day in the US markets....the stock market is up over 1% in the first 30 minutes.....while Exxon and Chevron (the two largest US oil and gas companies) are down more than 1% and 1.5%.

You will see this "divergence" more and more over the coming years.  The "market" has already figured out....that oil and gas is "GOING AWAY" over the coming decades.  Its NOT a matter of IF....just a matter of WHEN.

But the market is also figuring out that having oil and gas "go away".....will be a VERY GOOD THING:

1)  Fewer health problems
2)  Less strife from issues with countries who have most of the oil and gas
3)  Better environment to live
4)  MUCH lower cost of energy as renewables infrastructure is built out

Mr. Market is figuring that all out.....on its own.  And those left "holding the bag" of oil and gas stocks (as well as electric utility stocks) will be in for some sizeable losses.

The other interesting thing to watch for....AND EXPECT....is for a "divergence" between oil and gas companies.....and other "commodity" companies (iron ore, aluminum, concrete, copper, .....other "hard commodities").

I expect many of those other hard commodity companies to perform very WELL over coming years as oil and gas goes down the tubes.  Because the other part of global warming....will be a lot of infrastructure building in coming decades.

Other commodities need oil and gas though, without oil and gas, it is impossible to create solar panels or maintain wind turbines or hydroelectric dams, and it wont be possible to maintain roads or agriculture without oil, so perhaps the environment improves, but with a lot of human suffering.
Can't think of a signature

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17382
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 565
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #724 on: December 04, 2015, 11:19:27 PM »
Per the linked article the price of crude oil dropped about 2% today:

http://in.reuters.com/article/global-oil-idINKBN0TN1XJ20151204
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #725 on: December 05, 2015, 01:21:22 AM »
The U.S. Has An Oil Train Problem
Quote
The fact is, there is no safe way to transport oil. Studies have shown that while trains spill more often, pipelines spill more oil per incident.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/03/3727822/crude-by-rail-2015-biggest-year-ever/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #726 on: December 05, 2015, 02:19:26 PM »
Quote
Other commodities need oil and gas though, without oil and gas, it is impossible to create solar panels or maintain wind turbines or hydroelectric dams, and it wont be possible to maintain roads or agriculture without oil, so perhaps the environment improves, but with a lot of human suffering.


There are ALREADY companies making "synthetic oil".....for many applications.  The "electrification" of transportation will come quicker than most people think.

Here's a good link for you:

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/11/29/weekend-wonk-bonus-amory-lovins-on-disrupting-oil-markets/

This doesn't happen in a decade or two....but it will happen much more quickly than many think.  And it will be the capital markets that spur it on.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #727 on: December 05, 2015, 02:33:09 PM »
This link was posted by another member elsewhere on this site....but this is a GOOD article to read.  It will show you two things:  (1)  Electric utilizes are starting to get "bypassed" by some users for at least some of their power needs, (2) this will impact natural gas companies more and more as time goes by.

The death of fossil fuels is still in its "early days"...but we're NOT in the 1st inning.  And ending score is certainly clear.  The only thing we don't know is HOW LONG THE GAME WILL BE.  Twenty years....forty years....sixty years.

Those states and countries who drag their heels.....will be left behind...and will be at a distinct disadvantage.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #728 on: December 06, 2015, 02:06:03 AM »
Huge natural gas leak from an underground California storage site is equivalent to 25% of California's methane emissions -- and likely won't be plugged for three months.

Massive natural gas storage leak alarms California residents, climate activists
Rupture at Aliso Canyon natural gas storage site has released the equivalent of 800,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide.
Quote
It’s the climate equivalent of the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico: the rupture of a natural gas storage site in California that is spewing vast amounts of methane into the atmosphere and is likely to go unchecked for three months.

The breach of the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage site, near Porter Ranch has forced the relocation of hundreds of families, who complained of headaches, nosebleeds and nausea from the rotten-egg smell of the odorant added to the gas to aid in leak detection.

The leak, which was detected on 23 October, now accounts for at least a quarter of California’s emissions of methane – a far more powerful climate-altering gas than carbon dioxide.

Already, the ruptured storage facility has released well over the equivalent of 800,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide – about the same amount that would be generated by driving 160,000 cars for a year, according to the California Air Resources Board.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/04/california-natural-gas-leak-methane-climate-change-old-infrastructure


The Invisible Spill Spewing the Gases of a Half-Million Cars
Quote
You can’t see it, but it’s there -- a steady stream of natural gas seeping out of a leaking well in Southern California that may spew as much greenhouse gas into the air as a half-million cars do in a year. Pipeline operator Sempra Energy says it may take three to four months to plug.

Using the same tactic that eventually ended the massive 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the San Diego-based utility owner is boring a well that’ll intercept the damaged one to stop the seepage. Meanwhile, it’s relocating hundreds of people into temporary housing as health officials say the gas is making some sick. The company faces as much as $900 million in costs such as relocation and legal expenses, based on government data and Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-05/the-invisible-spill-spewing-the-gases-of-a-half-million-cars
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #729 on: December 07, 2015, 04:13:10 PM »
Large oil and gas players (specifically Exxon and Chevron) continue their short term move DOWN.

XOM heading to the $60ish (give or take a couple bucks on each side) area.  Chevron (CVX) also heading to its $60ish area over the coming week(s) before it finds buying interest.

Keep in mind that the coming bounce is likely an INTERMEDIATE TERM BOUNCE OF 12 - 24 MONTHS.

AFTER THAT BOUNCE HAS ENDED.....both are in SERIOUS TECHNICAL TROUBLE.  And this just "happens" to coincide with all the FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES with oil and gas.

Look for Goldman Sachs and others (who don't have a conscience) to talk just the opposite.  For instance....I expect Goldman to continue to talk DOWN OIL over the coming months...EVEN AFTER THEY BOTTOM.  And then in 18 months - 24 months from now after oil companies have PEAKED...expect Goldman and others to keep a BULLISH STAND (as the companies deteriorate).

FOX News:  "Where truth and journalism area dead."
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #730 on: December 09, 2015, 08:25:04 AM »
.


As Peter Sinclair wrote; "The most sickening story of the millenium."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #731 on: December 10, 2015, 02:43:14 AM »
Quote
...natural gas, down 5.5 percent so far this week on warm weather...

...West Texas Intermediate oil futures for January finished at $37.16 per barrel, down 35 cents. Since Friday, when OPEC chose to maintain market-based pricing, oil is down more than 11 percent.
...
 "[Oil has] gone through $40 so convincingly that a lot of people are talking about $25," he said.
...
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/09/oil-pressure-keeps-rising-on-markets.html

Texas messes with oil market, diesel glut weighs on price
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/07/el-nino-joins-forces-with-opec-to-clobber-energy-prices.html
« Last Edit: December 10, 2015, 02:48:29 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #732 on: December 12, 2015, 02:40:13 AM »
IEA Sees Oil Glut Lasting to Late 2016 as OPEC Keeps Pumping
Quote
The global oil surplus will persist at least until late 2016 as demand growth slows and OPEC shows “renewed determination” to maximize output, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, by effectively dropping production limits at its Dec. 4 meeting, is displaying hardened resolve to maintain sales volumes even as prices fall in an oversupplied market, the agency said Friday in its monthly report. While its policy is hitting rivals, triggering the steepest drop in non-OPEC supply since 1992, world oil inventories will likely swell further once Iran restores exports on the completion of a deal to lift sanctions, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/iea-sees-oil-glut-lasting-until-late-2016-as-opec-keeps-pumping
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #733 on: December 12, 2015, 02:58:03 AM »
The USGS time lapse animation of Oklahoma earthquakes at the bottom of the article is awesome.

This One Suit Could Take Down Oklahoma’s Oil And Gas Industry
Quote
“You, the industry, needs to pay the cost of your operations,” Geis said. “If that turns out to be uneconomical, than you need to rethink your economic model.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/11/3730531/oil-gas-doesnt-want-to-pay-for-earthquake-damage/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 520
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #734 on: December 12, 2015, 02:30:20 PM »
IEA Sees Oil Glut Lasting to Late 2016 as OPEC Keeps Pumping
Quote
The global oil surplus will persist at least until late 2016 as demand growth slows and OPEC shows “renewed determination” to maximize output, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, by effectively dropping production limits at its Dec. 4 meeting, is displaying hardened resolve to maintain sales volumes even as prices fall in an oversupplied market, the agency said Friday in its monthly report. While its policy is hitting rivals, triggering the steepest drop in non-OPEC supply since 1992, world oil inventories will likely swell further once Iran restores exports on the completion of a deal to lift sanctions, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/iea-sees-oil-glut-lasting-until-late-2016-as-opec-keeps-pumping

Yeah, gas down to $1.83/gal at my local pump. Oil consumption here in the US is up almost 1 million barrels per day over 2-3 years ago (back near 20Mbpd) and miles traveled is back on its pre-recession growth trend. Definitely feeling the increase in road congestion again here in St. Louis.

Edit: Efficiency up too, as miles driven is now greater than the pre-recession value, but oil consumption hasn't caught up to the peak yet.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2015, 02:36:09 PM by Csnavywx »

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #735 on: December 12, 2015, 02:50:08 PM »
"Edit: Efficiency up too, as miles driven is now greater than the pre-recession value, but oil consumption hasn't caught up to the peak yet."

From the article below.....you can see that Ford is DVIING into electric cars 4.5 billion dollars of more investment.  The tide has QUICKLY CHANGED in the auto industry....and those not changing quickly enough will vanish.

http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/ford-electric-vehicles-investment/

Of course...the effect will be for more miles driven.....at a much greater efficiency....and less and less oil and gas used.  This is going to be the slow death of the oil and gas companies.....just like the coal companies.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 520
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #736 on: December 12, 2015, 04:27:46 PM »
"Edit: Efficiency up too, as miles driven is now greater than the pre-recession value, but oil consumption hasn't caught up to the peak yet."

From the article below.....you can see that Ford is DVIING into electric cars 4.5 billion dollars of more investment.  The tide has QUICKLY CHANGED in the auto industry....and those not changing quickly enough will vanish.

http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/ford-electric-vehicles-investment/

Of course...the effect will be for more miles driven.....at a much greater efficiency....and less and less oil and gas used.  This is going to be the slow death of the oil and gas companies.....just like the coal companies.

Yeah, some investment there (4.5 billion isn't exactly a lot though -- even though it sounds like big money). EV sales have flagged badly over the past 2 years (except the high-end luxury EV market), so investment will be limited in the short-to-medium term until gas goes back up.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #737 on: December 12, 2015, 06:45:07 PM »
Quote
Yeah, some investment there (4.5 billion isn't exactly a lot though -- even though it sounds like big money). EV sales have flagged badly over the past 2 years (except the high-end luxury EV market), so investment will be limited in the short-to-medium term until gas goes back up.

Two things ARE happening....and will continue to happen:

1)  Battery costs will continue to PLUMMET.  Tesla will start producing in their "gigafactory" (ie about 1 mile by 1/2 mile BIG) in early 2017.

2)  Likely more countries will put a "price" on carbon (ie China).

There are too many things now working against fossil fuels.....and momentum has swung and is in the rear view mirror.  Of course....this is NOT the type of change that happens overnight...and fossil fuel companies will string this out as long as they can.  But momentum has swung BIG TIME...and will continue to swing in coming months and years (not decades).
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #738 on: December 12, 2015, 08:21:46 PM »
Here's a video clip from Climatecrocks.com with Jason Box speaking about the Exxon cover-up.

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/12/12/jason-box-interviewed-in-paris/

Will be interesting to see HOW Exxon (and other large fossil fuel companies) "spin" the Paris agreement...and will also be interesting to watch Exxon (and others) play out in the stock market over coming years.

Anyone remember Wang Computer?  How about the camera company Polaroid or Kodak?  Three different companies in two different industries that "didn't see it coming.  Many..if not MOST...of the fossil fuel companies will end up like that.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #739 on: December 14, 2015, 02:00:34 PM »
Looking for the weekend agreement in Paris to likely be a good "nudge" for energy stocks DOWN over the next couple of weeks.  Again....I expect THREE THINGS to happen:  (1)  short term energy stocks will go down until they find "enough buyers" (2)  intermediate term....I expect them to bounce...and maybe "bounce" up for 12 - 24 months.  As they do so...."smart money" will be selling (3) After any intermediate term bounce in energy stocks of 12 - 24 months.....THEY WILL GET ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED.

During the intermediate term bounce UP.....and especially towards the end of that bounce UP....I expect Goldman Sachs and other investment banks to be bullish on them (as they prepare to SHORT THEM).  They are.....to steal a line from a movie....."dead men walking".

I expect Exxon and Chevron to go down to 60ish (high 50's to low s60's) over the coming week or two.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #740 on: December 14, 2015, 02:57:45 PM »
Not much sign of a significant negative response for carbon stocks on the FTSE with BP, Shell and BHP Billiton all off around 2% at lunchtime in a flat market.

Not too much coverage in the financial press over the weekend either.

That said, UK traded coal stocks have already been hammered extremely hard. The writing is already on the wall for them.



Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #741 on: December 14, 2015, 08:21:28 PM »
In the US markets.....solar is "on fire" today:

SCTY up 10%
RUN up 17%
SPWR up 11%
TAN (etf) up 6%

Chevron and Exxon are up slightly.....but they are heading for a short term cliff.  keep in mind...that Chevron, Exxon, and the other BIG oil players pay dividends......and "this" (the news in Paris) is just an ANNOUNCEMENT.  But there is NO INTEREST OF NET BUYERS WANTING TO BUY OIL STOCKS.  Keep in mind.....we are looking at FURTHER DIVESTITURES by state and private pension funds.

This is going to a LONG AND PAINFUL PROCESS FOR ANYONE HOLDING BIG OIL STOCK.

Short term.....(next couple weeks).....I see big oil heading south until things get BEARISH ENOUGH THAT THEY RUN OUT OF SELLERS IN THE SHORT TERM.  Then.....likely to get a bounce of 12 - 18 months (which investors will be selling into).

Fun times........ 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #742 on: December 14, 2015, 08:28:39 PM »
Almost the more interesting thing (from a finance standpoint) is the BANKS.  Banks have a LOT of debt (loans) to oil and gas companies.  And the banks have NOT as yet "reserved" enough on their balance sheets for FUTURE NONPAYMENT from some of the oil and gas entities for future bad debt (especially small and medium sized "frackers" in the US).

Banks are down today in the US....and I expect they will be down over the next few months as the market realizes (and banks confess) that they are UNDER-RESERVED for losses from the oil and gas sector.

Watch JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank....etc.  I expect them to get spanked over the coming weeks and months for oil and gas issues.

Fascinating times...



FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #743 on: December 15, 2015, 10:01:01 PM »
Interesting article below discusses the oil and gas markets....and a "deal" between the Democrats and Republicans in the US regarding the EXPORT of oil from the US, in EXCHANGE for a continuation of the renewable energy tax credit PAST 2016.

A continuation of the renewable energy tax credit would be a big deal...

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Finally-Some-Good-News-For-The-US-Oil-Industry.html
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #744 on: December 16, 2015, 02:39:59 PM »
Looks like "Mr. Market" likes the possibility for the energy tax credit for renewable energy sources to be extended in the US.

The renewable energy stocks in the US (before the market opens) are up BIG.

The big oils are just slightly above flat.

Going forward (months and years).....we are going to see a "divergence".  For one to two years....the oils may go up (bounce) as the current imbalance (too much supply) plays itself out.  But the renewable stocks (SPWR, SEDG, TAN, FSLR, SCTY, etc) will greatly outperform.

Remember....those of us in the US are UNFORTUNATE ENOUGH to have absolute IDIOTS in our Congress that are basically "on the take" from fossil fuel companies.  Right now....Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are trying to get the Koch Brothers money in their corner for the presidential election next year....so they are having a competition to see who can bash global warming the most.

Thus....in the US....we are competitively BEHIND Europe and China in moving to renewable energy.  But I think the Genie is "too far out of the bottle"......and the stock market knows it.

In the US.....we are at about 4% of energy supplied by solar and wind.  That is going to go up HUGE OVER THE COMING DECADE.  HUGE....

By the way.....I have a QUESTION for some of you.  I am trying to find a BETTER AND FASTER WAY to pull data from the NOAA......"Daily Tools:  Daily Records Data" section of their website (link below).  I have pulled some of the data for the United States since 1930.....but I want to pull it from China, Brazil, Russia, and Australia as well.....but I DON'T want to do it LINE BY LINE...MONTH BY MONTH....like I had to do it for the US.  Is it possible for them to send FILES (an Excel file would be BEAUTIFUL) to me?  Some of you folks likely have some experience working with them....so I thought you might know.  Thanks in advance....

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

Here are two examples of the power point sheets I prepared from Excel files for the US:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-high-temps-to-new_36.html

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-daily-record-high-temps-to_30.html

I'm in Georgia (US)....so sometimes I feel like I am in a "3rd world country)......
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #745 on: December 16, 2015, 04:29:55 PM »
Report: Atlantic Drilling Would Offer $0 To States, Not $19 Billion
Quote
... A new report from the Center for a Blue Economy suggests that the southern Atlantic states — Virgina, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia — would see little to no benefit from offshore drilling, while putting a critical piece of their economies and lifestyles at risk.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/15/3732084/offshore-drilling-bad-deal-for-atlantic-states/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #746 on: December 17, 2015, 02:48:11 AM »
FAA creates "no-fly zone" over ongoing natural gas leak at gas storage facility near Los Angeles.
Article includes a video of the methane leak using a ITC-certified thermographer to see the usually invisible natural gas.

The Worst Gas Leak in California’s History Isn’t Close to Being Fixed
http://time.com/4149170/california-natural-gas-methane-leak/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #747 on: December 17, 2015, 03:36:41 AM »
$100 Billion Evaporates as World's Worst Oil Major Plunges 90%

- Ecopetrol's oil production has fallen short of forecasts
- Investors have soured on company once worth more than BP

Quote
Colombia is nursing paper losses of more than $100 billion after its oil boom fell short of expectations, wiping out 90 percent of the value of what was once Latin America’s biggest company.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/-100-billion-evaporates-as-world-s-worst-oil-major-plunges-90-
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #748 on: December 17, 2015, 05:10:41 PM »
On page 1,855 of the U.S Congress' budget bill, Republicans, at 2am, added a permanent lift on the export ban of U.S. oil -- as trade-off for adding 5 more years of subsidies for solar and wind.

Markey: Lifting Oil Export Ban Would be Big Christmas Present for Big Oil, Dec. 15, 2015


http://www.utilitydive.com/news/congress-strikes-deal-to-extend-wind-solar-tax-credits-and-lift-oil-export/410947/


"U.S. shale drillers will soon be able to sell their oil all over the world. Too bad no one needs it right now."
Quote
We have to have an outlet for our crude,” ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance said during an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. U.S. oil has fetched a lower price than international crude because it’s been “trapped” by the export ban, he said.

Oil producers, rig owners, drill-bit manufacturers and oilfield service providers around the world have been canceling exploration projects, reducing budgets and firing hundreds of thousands of workers to cope with the worst price slump in a generation.

Still Limping

Moody’s Investors Service said on Wednesday that it expects the industry to continue limping at least through 2017 as weak cash flows discourage drilling and the declining values for oil and gas fields make asset sales less effective tools to generate cash.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-17/shale-drillers-are-now-free-to-export-u-s-oil-into-global-glut
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #749 on: December 18, 2015, 12:02:16 PM »
Oil's bleak future.....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-chanos-dark-warning-opec-224950587.html

My how times change quickly.....:)
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."