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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1150 on: November 16, 2016, 09:41:30 PM »
While some people do not think highly of the IEA's objectivity; nevertheless, per the linked article they do not expect oil consumption to peak before 2040:

http://fortune.com/2016/11/16/oil-demand-2040/

Extract: "The International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to peak no sooner than 2040, leaving its long-term forecasts for supply and demand unchanged despite the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement entering into force.

“The difficulty of finding alternatives to oil in road freight, aviation and petrochemicals means that, up to 2040, the growth in these three sectors alone is greater than the growth in global oil demand,” the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1151 on: November 17, 2016, 04:06:34 PM »
This matters more from an environmental standpoint than from an oil supply standpoint.  Still....

Obama Said to Block Selling New Drilling Rights in U.S. Arctic
Quote
The Obama administration is set to block the sale of new oil and gas drilling rights in U.S. Arctic waters under a five-year blueprint, handing a victory to environmentalists who said the activity threatened whales, walruses and other wildlife in the region.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-16/obama-said-to-block-selling-new-drilling-rights-in-u-s-arctic-ivl28guc
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longwalks1

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1152 on: November 18, 2016, 03:37:05 AM »
Slightly different version of earthquakes based on fracking - not based on the waste disposal but the hydraulic fracturing itself. 

Quote
Hydraulic fracturing has been inferred to trigger the majority of injection-induced earthquakes in western Canada, in contrast to the midwestern United States where massive saltwater disposal is the dominant triggering mechanism. A template-based earthquake catalog from a seismically active Canadian shale play, combined with comprehensive injection data during a 4-month interval, shows that earthquakes are tightly clustered in space and time near hydraulic fracturing sites. The largest event [moment magnitude (MW) 3.9] occurred several weeks after injection along a fault that appears to extend from the injection zone into crystalline basement. Patterns of seismicity indicate that stress changes during operations can activate fault slip to an offset distance of >1 km, whereas pressurization by hydraulic fracturing into a fault yields episodic seismicity that can persist for months.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2016/11/16/science.aag2583.full

Hopefully we will see more Canadian based studies now that Harpo is out. 


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1153 on: November 24, 2016, 07:07:59 PM »
World Energy Outlook: “Electric cars are happening” as global gasoline consumption peaks
Quote
A new forecast put together by The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that worldwide consumption of gasoline has peaked as Tesla and new players within the electric vehicle space halt demand growth in the next 25 years. IEA director Fatih Birol told press in London that the number of electric cars on the road worldwide will increase from 1 million last year to 150 million by 2040. Birol went on to say that demand for gasoline will peak very shortly if it has not already. Gasoline accounts for one in four barrels of oil consumed worldwide. “Electric cars are happening,” Birol said. The push for more efficient cars with lower carbon emissions is also spurring a decrease in demand for gasoline.

Birol’s forecast is in line with a statement made a few weeks ago by Simon Henry, CFO of Royal Dutch Shell.  “We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” he said. “And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.”
...
Nevertheless, the IEA’s negative prediction for gasoline does not mean that demand for oil will cease any time soon. It still predicts  overall oil demand will grow for several decades because of rising demand for so-called middle distalates — diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel — by the shipping, trucking, aviation and petrochemical industries.
...
Not all emissions come from automobiles and trucks. The global shipping industry is responsible for the largest amount of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. (Commercial airline numbers are not far behind.) Edward Humes, author of Door To Door looks at the total emissions impact of products the industrialized world uses each day. In an interview with NPR earlier this year, Humes says, “If you take 160 [large ships], the emissions from just those vessels, of the type of emissions that cause smog and particulate pollution, those 160 mega ships will be the equivalent of the emissions of all the cars in the world. And that’s just a tiny fraction of the worldwide fleet. Together, the cargo fleet generates about 2 to 3 percent of world carbon emissions, which would – if that fleet were a country, it would put them in the top 10 emitters of carbon dioxide in the world. In fact, it would put it ahead of Germany – the fourth-largest economy in the world.”
http://www.teslarati.com/iea-credits-tesla-helping-slow-demand-gasoline/
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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1154 on: November 24, 2016, 07:48:50 PM »
" The global shipping industry is responsible for the largest amount of carbon emissions in the transportation sector"

This is misleading. The word "carbon" in the sentence above does not include carbon dioxide.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1155 on: November 26, 2016, 05:59:26 PM »
"Right now it's a moot point," Molchanov said. "Five years is a long time, if oil prices stage a strong recovery in the medium term, then perhaps there will be some desire on the part of oil and gas producers to pursue Arctic drilling, but definitely not now. There is no such desire now."

Obama Halts Arctic Oil Leases and Undoing It Won't Be Simple for Trump
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18112016/barack-obama-arctic-oil-drilling-natural-gas-donald-trump
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1156 on: November 26, 2016, 06:01:08 PM »
The linked reference provides details on just how large the new shale oil/gas discovery is:

Sidder, A. (21 November 2016), "Largest ever U.S. shale oil deposit identified in Texas", Eos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO063225.

https://eos.org/articles/largest-ever-u-s-shale-oil-deposit-identified-in-texas?utm_source=eos&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz112516

Extract: "The Wolfcamp shale also contains an estimated 16 trillion cubic feet (453 billion cubic meters) of associated natural gas and 1.6 billion barrels (245 million cubic meters) of natural gas liquids, according to USGS.

...

Troy Cook, a petroleum engineer with the U.S. Energy Information Administration, agreed and added that if anything, some companies may even find the estimate on the low end. For example, the oil company Pioneer Natural Resources has stated that continuous oil in the Wolfcamp shale and an overlying deposit known as the Spraberry Formation could eventually produce upward of 100 billion barrels (16 billion cubic meters) of oil."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1157 on: November 26, 2016, 07:12:03 PM »
Longread on the recent Colonial pipeline spill, explosion and related events.

A Blade Strikes Steel, and the Blast Shocks a Nation’s Energy System
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/a-blade-strikes-steel-and-the-blast-shocks-a-nation-s-energy-system
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1158 on: November 28, 2016, 03:28:39 PM »
Oil Industry Worries About Peak Oil, as in Peak Demand
Quote
The Wall Street Journal describes how a number of small and large oil companies are worried about peak demand for oil, starting with Hungary’s MOL Group, which plans to reorient its business over the next decade to focus on petrochemicals, which it sees as having sustained demand, and away from fuel products. From the Journal:

Last month Shell finance chief Simon Henry caused a stir when he said the company sees oil demand peaking in five to 15 years. Shell’s latest published forecasts have consumption flattening toward the end of that period.

State-owned China National Petroleum Corp. quietly issued a report in the summer predicting that China’s oil consumption—a major driver of growth in recent decades—will begin to fall by 2030, if not sooner. Global demand is expected to follow suit…

“The question is more a question of when, rather than if,” Dominic Emery, BP’s vice president for long-term planning and policy, told the Economist Energy Summit in London this month. BP says oil demand could fall by the late 2020s if tougher emissions laws are enacted…

Peak demand “will be later than the common dates that are being thrown around, but if it does happen, because we’re building multiple engines for the economy and we’re planning for an economy beyond oil, we’ll be ready,” Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid al Falih, told a conference in Istanbul last month.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/oil-industry-worries-about-peak-oil-as-in-peak-demand.html
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1159 on: November 28, 2016, 03:47:26 PM »
Quote
Oil Industry Worries About Peak Oil, as in Peak Demand

They should.  And that is why Saudi Arabia is doing an IPO (Initial Public Offering) in 2017 of part of "Saudi Aramco"...the now state run oil company.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1160 on: November 30, 2016, 02:51:30 PM »
"You cannot be depending on oil in a world where the knowledge economy is the driver of economic development — manufacturing is 20th century."

Mohammed Bin Salman, Saudi Arabian Prince, Pushes Rapid Change
Quote
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Saudi Arabia's powerful deputy crown prince is a young man in a big hurry.

Amid plunging oil prices, 31-year-old Mohammad bin Salman is furiously promoting a plan to wean his country off of the fossil fuel while getting more of its people to work.

"This guy is all about change," Saudi analyst Ahmad Al-Ibrahim told NBC News. He has "huge ambitions. And a Western mind-set that he wants to apply to Saudi Arabia."

Al-Ibrahim described the prince's "amazing aggression" in attempting to compress decades of economic and social change into less than 15 years.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabian-prince-pushes-rapid-change-n687536
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1161 on: November 30, 2016, 05:52:38 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Justin Trudeau Approves Oil Pipeline Expansion in Canada".

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/29/world/canada/canada-trudeau-kinder-morgan-pipeline.html?_r=0

Extract: "In a decision that will almost surely prompt showdowns with environmentalists, indigenous groups and some political allies, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada approved on Tuesday the expansion of a pipeline linking the oil sands in Alberta to a tanker port in British Columbia.

The Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain project will increase the capacity of a 53-year-old pipeline to 890,000 barrels a day from 300,000 and expand the tanker port. In recent weeks, there have been several large protests against the project, particularly in Vancouver, British Columbia. But Rachel Notley, the premier of Alberta, has repeatedly said that the project is critical to the future of her province’s energy industry."
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sesyf

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1162 on: November 30, 2016, 10:00:08 PM »
Today's news told that Saudis etc have reached an agreement on curbing oil production down to 32,5 million barrels a day, if I heard right. I wonder whether this happens (somebody needs a bit more money) or is this something about 'we can't produce that much anymore, let's agree on something...'

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1163 on: December 01, 2016, 01:43:15 AM »
Mainly, though, "we don't understand the plumbing down there," Williams said.

After new regulations, Oklahoma's shakes calm down a bit
Quote
This year, before the new rules went into effect on May 28, Oklahoma averaged 2.3 quakes a day. Since then the average dropped to 1.3 a day, based on AP's analysis of U.S. Geological Survey data of earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or larger. But some of those fewer post-regulatory quakes have been large and damaging.
https://apnews.com/2b0a059017bc4dd98a2461a7f96a58ef/After-new-regulations,-Oklahoma's-shakes-calm-down-a-bit
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1164 on: December 05, 2016, 12:22:21 AM »
BREAKING #NoDAPL NEWS: In major victory from the Standing Rock Sioux, Army Corps denies Dakota Access pipeline easement under Lake Oahe.
https://twitter.com/nrdc/status/805521921882333184

Bill McKibben:  Word spreading: Obama HALTS construction of Dakota pipeline. No win is ever permanent, but this is testament to amazing organizing #NoDAPL
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/805519246386143237

Standing Rock: US denies key permit for Dakota Access pipeline, a win for tribe
Army Corps of Engineers will not grant the permit for the Dakota Access pipeline to drill under the Missouri river, handing a major win to environmental activists
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/04/dakota-access-pipeline-permit-denied-standing-rock
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1165 on: December 05, 2016, 12:40:58 AM »
The victory at Standing Rock could mark a turning point
By Bill McKibben
Quote
The news that the US federal government has refused to issue the permit needed to run a pipeline under the Missouri river means many things – including that indigenous activists have won a smashing victory, one that shows what nonviolent unity can accomplish.

From the start, this has been an against-the-odds battle. Energy Transfer Partners, the company building the pipeline, is as wired as they come: its line of credit links it to virtually every bank you’ve ever heard of. And operating under a “fast-track” permit process, it had managed to win most of its approvals and lay most of its pipe before opponents managed to mount an effective resistance.

But that opposition finally did arise, and it centered on the last place the pipeline would have to cross: the confluence of the Missouri and the Cannonball rivers. It wasn’t standard-issue environmental lobbying, nor standard-issue protest, though there was certainly some of both (lawyers took the company to court, activists shut down bank branches). At its heart, however, in the great camp that grew up along the rivers, this was a largely spiritual resistance. David Archambault, the head of the Standing Rock Sioux who demonstrated great character and dexterity for months, kept insisting that the camp was a place of prayer, and you couldn’t wander its paths without running into drum circles and sacred fires. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/04/standing-rock-victory-turning-point
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1166 on: December 06, 2016, 06:08:40 PM »
U.S.:  Oil price is up due to OPEC cuts -- so we'll drill more next year!  But that could cause the price to plummet.  So let's hedge our bets....  ::)

American Shale Companies' Rush to Hedge Is Turning the Oil Market Upside Down
Quote
The rush to hedge -- locking in future cash flows and sales prices -- could translate into higher U.S. oil production next year, offsetting the first output cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in eight years. As such, the producer group could end up throwing a life-line to a sector it once tried to crush.
...
“Two things might be priced in this change -- the first one is that shale producers are hedging and the second one is that the deal is for six months and then no one knows what’s going to happen,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-05/oil-market-turns-upside-down-as-shale-rushes-to-hedge-post-opec
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1167 on: December 12, 2016, 05:41:42 PM »
Trump, Putin, and ExxonMobil team up to destroy the planet
Pick of Exxon CEO for Secretary of State clarifies why Putin wanted Trump elected: a $500 billion oil deal killed by sanctions
Quote
The aligning interests between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s choice for U.S. president (Donald Trump), and Big Oil represents the gravest threat to humanity (and democracy) since the rise of the Axis powers in the 1930s.

That’s because while Trump may not be able to destroy global climate action and the landmark 2105 Paris climate deal all by himself — as he pledged to do during the campaign — he probably could do that with help from Russia and the trillion-dollar oil industry.

So much is explained by Trump’s Secretary of State choice. Media reports now say it will be Rex Tillerson, CEO of oil giant ExxonMobil, which had made a $500 billion oil deal with Putin that got blocked by sanctions.

Stalling the biggest oil deal ever did not just “put Exxon at risk,” as the Wall Street Journal reported in 2014. MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow explained last week this deal was so big it was “expected to change the historical trajectory of Russia.” ...
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-putin-and-exxonmobil-team-up-to-destroy-the-planet-fb88650acfa1
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1168 on: December 12, 2016, 09:16:16 PM »
Desperate times.

OPEC Oil Output Said to Rise Ahead of January Historic Cut
Quote
OPEC boosted production in November, according to independent estimates, as Nigeria, Libya and Angola all pumped more oil ahead of the group’s Jan. 1 deadline to cut its collective output, a person familiar with the data said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-12/opec-output-said-to-rise-in-november-as-group-faces-historic-cut
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1169 on: December 13, 2016, 05:09:22 PM »
The Exact Thing Standing Rock Protesters Didn't Want to Happen Already Happened
Quote
The key concern of protesters at Standing Rock has been and remains the environmental hazard posed by Energy Transfer Partners’ 1,200-mile pipeline, which would have the potential to taint local water supplies and destroy sacred grounds. Confirming those exact fears, a pipeline in North Dakota has spilled some 176,000 gallons of crude into a creek 150 miles north of the protest encampments.
http://gizmodo.com/the-exact-thing-standing-rock-protesters-didnt-want-to-1790018392
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1170 on: December 15, 2016, 02:26:47 PM »
The industry claims this decision was politically motivated and hopes it will be ignored by the Trump administration.

The EPA Once Said Fracking Did Not Cause Widespread Water Contamination. Not Anymore
Quote
In a significant reversal, the Environmental Protection Agency struck from a major 2015 report its conclusion that fracking has not caused "widespread, systemic impacts on drinking water" in the United States. The agency cited the lack of data and evidence to support the finding.

The change was made after an EPA panel of independent scientists recommended in August that the agency revise the statement, which had minimized the potential hazards posed to drinking water. The panel, known as the Science Advisory Board (SAB), spent a year analyzing the draft version of the study.
...
"Cases of impacts were identified for all stages of the hydraulic fracturing water cycle," it continued. "Identified impacts generally occurred near hydraulically fractured oil and gas production wells and ranged in severity from temporary changes in water quality to contamination that made private drinking water wells unusable."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13122016/fracking-water-contamination-oil-gas-hydraulic-fracturing-epa-trump
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1171 on: December 15, 2016, 02:37:37 PM »
Nobody Agrees When Oil Market Will Re-Balance After OPEC Deal
Quote
The first half. No, the second. Certainly this year. Or next.

That’s the range of views you’ll hear if you ask the International Energy Agency, OPEC, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. government when the production cuts announced last week will end the global oil glut.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/nobody-agrees-when-oil-market-will-re-balance-after-opec-deal
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1172 on: December 18, 2016, 06:08:07 PM »
We are not in a business as usual world,” Bradshaw said. “Higher prices for oil and gas will drive investment in efficiency and demand reduction and also substitution, so they may actually promote structural demand destruction.”

We Need to Accept That Oil Is a Dying Industry
Quote
The industry’s long-term debts now total over $2 trillion, the report concludes, half of which “will never be repaid because the issuing firms comprehend neither how dramatically their industry has changed nor how these changes threaten to soon engulf them.”

The report is authored by Philip Verleger, a former economic advisor to President Ford who went on to head up the US Treasury’s Office of Energy Policy under President Carter, and Abdalatif al-Hamad, Director General of the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development.

Its main finding is that permanent shifts in global energy markets will inevitably overwhelm oil companies, along with all economies which depend primarily on fossil fuel production. The attempt to rally prices, the report confirms, is a somewhat futile effort to avoid a major debt crisis by lifting revenues.

But it won’t work because the global oil industry is in denial about the bigger trends disrupting energy markets as we know them. Oil majors, the report says, are holding on to a number of fatal delusions.

They believe that the oil price decline is “transitory”; that oil consumption will grow despite ongoing economic stagnation; that the industry will be magically immune to public and policy demands to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; that technological progress will never be able to “displace fossil fuels such as oil”; and, finally, that fracking will not produce enough supply to undermine OPEC’s market monopoly.

Oil majors, the report says, are holding on to a number of fatal delusions.

But if these assumptions are wrong: “They represent an ossified industry that will gradually fade away [and] hundreds of billions if not trillions in debt issued by these firms and countries may never be repaid.”
https://motherboard.vice.com/read/we-need-to-accept-that-oil-is-a-dying-industry
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1173 on: December 19, 2016, 10:27:33 PM »
Cross-post from Renewables thread.  The direction fossil fuel companies need to go to survive:

Statoil wins U.S. government bid to build offshore windfarm on the East Coast
Quote
Norwegian company Statoil will lease from the U.S. government nearly 80,000 acres off the coast of New York for an offshore wind farm, the company announced in a news release on Friday.

Statoil secured the lease by submitting the top bid of more than $43 million during an auction for the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Ocean Energy Management.

Power from the wind farm will go to New York City and Long Island. The area of the lease is between 14 and 30 miles off the coast of New York. The company did not give a timeline for when construction of the wind farm will begin.

In the U.S. there is currently only one operational wind farm, which started generating power last week off the coast of Rhode Island.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/12/16/statoil-wins-u-s-government-bid-to-build-offshore-windfarm-on-the-east-coast/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1174 on: December 20, 2016, 11:08:39 PM »
From the Arctic Drilling and Shipping thread:

Obama takes new action to ban Arctic drilling
Quote
Looking to cement his environmental record, President Barack Obama took new action Tuesday barring offshore drilling in areas of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans indefinitely.

Obama relied on a 63-year-old law to make his moves, which will prevent future leasing of certain offshore areas for oil rights. His successor, Donald Trump, who has promised a policy allowing more US energy production, would face legal challenges if he attempted to reverse Obama's order.

The White House said Obama was declaring the entire US portion of the Chukchi sea and the vast majority of the Beaufort Sea "indefinitely off limits for future oil and gas leasing," citing critical protection for the marine mammals, ecological resources and native populations.

Canada also announced Tuesday that it will freeze its offshore oil and gas exploration in its Arctic waters.

The US is also declaring 31 canyons off the Atlantic coast off-limits for drilling, citing "critical and irreplaceable ecological value."
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/20/politics/arctic-drilling-ban-obama-trump/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1175 on: December 21, 2016, 06:53:24 PM »
U.S. east coast:

“Additional interstate natural gas pipelines, like the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley projects, are not needed to keep the lights on, homes and businesses heated, and existing and new industrial facilities in production.”

Proposed pipeline to cut through Appalachian Trail, set dangerous example for development in protected areas
https://wilderness.org/blog/proposed-pipeline-cut-through-appalachian-trail-set-dangerous-example-development-protected
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1176 on: December 25, 2016, 01:30:01 AM »
With Oil Sands Ambitions on a Collision Course With Climate Change, Exxon Still Stepping on the Gas
Despite understanding environmental risks, the company and Canada remain committed to extracting and exporting Alberta’s carbon-heavy fuel source.
Quote
ExxonMobil placed a risky bet on the tar sands of Canada, even though they contain some of the dirtiest oil in the world and the company's own scientists had documented the link between fossil fuels and global warming.

Now, representing more than a third of Exxon's global liquid reserves, the investment is running into strong headwinds: increased international pressure to curtail emissions that contribute to climate change as well as persistently low oil prices that make tar sands petroleum, among the most expensive to produce, a drag on the bottom line.

In a routine financial disclosure this fall, Exxon said it could be forced to wipe billions of barrels of tar sands reserves from its books if oil prices don't rebound before the end of the year, potentially cutting its reported holdings there by 70 percent and erasing a decade of investment.

The company said it was merely complying with financial disclosure rules, and that the change would have no impact on future production. Investors hardly reacted.


Yet Exxon, through its Canadian affiliate Imperial Oil, has known for decades that international efforts to slash greenhouse gas emissions could threaten its deepening reliance on the resource, according to documents in the company archives and interviews with former employees. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12122016/exxon-climate-change-investigation-tar-sands-oil-development-canada
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1177 on: December 30, 2016, 12:59:06 PM »
You know that when Lamborghini builds a HYBRID CAR......that fossil fuels as a source for transportation is now on a downward trajectory:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/upcoming-lamborghini-urus-suv-reportedly-200919986.html

Anyone who wants to get a Christmas present in 2018.....now knows what I want ;)
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magnamentis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1178 on: December 31, 2016, 05:42:43 PM »
You know that when Lamborghini builds a HYBRID CAR......that fossil fuels as a source for transportation is now on a downward trajectory:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/upcoming-lamborghini-urus-suv-reportedly-200919986.html

Anyone who wants to get a Christmas present in 2018.....now knows what I want ;)

just for the fun of it and in case it's not well know everywhere, lamborghini is owned by "AUDI" but of course you have a point here, even though that once ferrari will build a hybrid (or EV) vehicle it will be the pre-announcement of a death sentence to gasoline and diesel engine powered cars, specially those like my fuel hogging phaeton, getting rid of it finally, just needed the solar panels area increase to feed a new EV :-)

things are rolling however, albeit way to slow.

happy new year

cheers

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1179 on: January 08, 2017, 04:59:15 AM »
Venezuela is pledging a 50% stake in Citgo, its U.S. refinery subsidiary, as collateral for a loan from Russia. :o

Venezuela's new $5 billion bond deal involves Citgo, Russia, and is raising eyebrows
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/07/venezuelas-new-5-billion-bond-deal-involves-citgo-russia-and-is-raising-eyebrows.html
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1180 on: January 08, 2017, 05:16:42 PM »
Quote
just for the fun of it and in case it's not well know everywhere, lamborghini is owned by "AUDI" but of course you have a point here, even though that once ferrari will build a hybrid (or EV) vehicle it will be the pre-announcement of a death sentence to gasoline and diesel engine powered cars, specially those like my fuel hogging phaeton, getting rid of it finally, just needed the solar panels area increase to feed a new EV :-)

things are rolling however, albeit way to slow.

Ferrari will be like Jack Nicklaus.  For those of you that AREN'T golfers....Jack Nicklaus was on the seniors tour....and he was about the "last holdout" for WOODS (Drivers and fairway woods made of REAL WOOD....instead of metal).

Ferrari will be the last holdout as well.  But...if they too will also relent, if they keep getting their butt kicked in by electrics..... ;)      See short video below of Ferrari losing to Tesla...

https://climatecrocks.com/2017/01/07/drag-race/

The third race in that video was from a "rolling start".  Didn't matter......Ferrari lost.  Just like the "woods" of old.....new technology will prove too much.

I wonder how many more years we will have race cars that run on fossil fuels?  You know...there is already a circuit for electric cars.

Dinosaurs......they all end up in the same heap eventually.  Some earlier than others...



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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1181 on: January 08, 2017, 06:54:45 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Oil drilling in Alaska refuge is again on the table", & indicates that there is reason to believe that drilling in ANWAR may soon be approved:

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/oil-drilling-in-alaska-refuge-is-again-on-the-table/

Extract: "Less than a month after the Obama administration announced it was banning offshore oil and gas production in most of the Arctic, there are signs that a place many conservationists regard as the crown jewel of the Arctic — the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — could one day be open for drilling.

After decades of unsuccessful attempts to gain access to oil beneath the pristine coastal lowlands, Alaska’s Republican congressional delegation this past week began yet another effort to open a region experts say may hold one of the nation’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas.

This time, however, there may be reason to expect a bill to pass and be signed into law."
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1182 on: January 13, 2017, 05:09:53 PM »
Quite a "dance" going on in oil markets.  Saudi Arabia wants to maintain the price of oil or push it HIGHER so it can get more money when it takes its country run oil company PUBLIC in an IPO this year (Saudi Aramco).

But then you have IRAQ....who wants to pump as much as they can.  And Russia....who also wants to pump as much as they can.  And most of the oil players can be trusted to tell the truth as much as Donald Trump tells the truth:  NEVER.

And then you have the US "frackers"......who have pushed down their costs of drilling significantly over the last few years.  Any rise in the price of oil will bring more fracking oil revenue to the US and make up for any oil that Saudi Arabia DOESN'T drill.

And as a MINOR POINT NOW....you have renewable energy increases.  Right now it is just "nibbling" at the edges of oil supply.  But that "nibble" is becoming bigger and bigger with each passing month.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/oil-steady-saudi-arabia-says-011548760.html
« Last Edit: January 16, 2017, 04:44:32 PM by Buddy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1183 on: January 15, 2017, 05:02:29 PM »
“It was always going to be a matter of when and not if OPEC would have to start grappling with the return of shale, and it looks like that time had already come even before it started supporting oil prices again. The big question is to what degree will the group and its members comply with what they said they'll do, and how much extra boost that will give to the U.S. shale oil industry.  OPEC is already talking of extending the time frame for its output cuts when it meets in May. It may also have to consider deepening them if it's serious about balancing supply and demand. The problem it faces is that doing so will simply improve the outlook for shale.”

U.S. Shale's Great Reawakening
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-01-15/us-shale-stage-set-for-the-reawakening-that-opec-dreads
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jai mitchell

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1184 on: January 16, 2017, 04:34:09 PM »
list of U.S. Fossil Fuel subsidies
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1185 on: January 16, 2017, 05:22:38 PM »
list of U.S. Fossil Fuel subsidies

This is a useful and eye-opening list.  I often take on the fool's errand of debating climate change in online forums.  I never expect to alter the view of the individual I'm debating, I do this to contribute my part to shifting the consciousness of the readers. 

I'm confident that the right-wing interests pay a small army of people to do the same thing I do, but on the opposite side of these arguments.

I've come across assertions that the fossil fuel industries are not subsidized by the government, only the green energy sources enjoy subsidies, creating market distortions and taxpayer burdens.  The assertions are clearly wrong, but I've lacked ammunition in some arguments. 

Thanks for helping to fill my quiver with a bunch of arrows!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1186 on: January 17, 2017, 02:48:11 PM »
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s musings about phasing out the oilsands Friday were met with a barrage of criticism from Alberta’s conservative politicians and a pledge from Premier Rachel Notley that the province’s energy industry was “not going anywhere, any time soon.”

'We need to phase them out': Trudeau draws fire over oilsands remark
http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/we-need-to-phase-them-out-trudeau-draws-fire-over-oilsands-remark
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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1187 on: January 17, 2017, 03:34:00 PM »
He has to propose other sources of income for Alberta. Phasing out oil sands without an alternative will create depressive economic conditions for the whole Province.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1188 on: January 17, 2017, 04:01:38 PM »
Alberta agreed to a carbon tax knowing that will be grossly too low to impact fossil fuel consumption. They steadfastly deny a fossil free future so mention of phase out is anathema. The carbon tax is just their way of paving the way for pipeline approval (so they can increase output not decrease it).

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1189 on: January 19, 2017, 05:21:51 PM »
Looks like the LONG TERM DOWNWARD TREND of oil companies in the equity markets is poised to continue.

ExxonMobile set its all time high of 104.76 in July of 2014.  As more activity in oil and gas drilling in China....AND....more fracking in the US....prices of oil poised to head south some....as is the price of O&G equities.  Not to the crazy lows below $30 a barrel.....but perhaps to the $45 level or so over the next several months.  It depends on how much new drilling that the US and China do over the short term.

This is going to be a LONG SLOW AGONIZING decline over many years....perhaps a few decades....for ExxonMobile.   It won't "go away" anytime soon...and there are obviously other uses for oil other than burning it for transportation or heating.  But this is going to continue to be a painful trade for those long XOM.

LONG TERM TREND:  Down
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND:  Down
SHORT TERM TREND:  Down



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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1190 on: January 19, 2017, 05:26:49 PM »
Looks like the LONG TERM DOWNWARD TREND of oil companies in the equity markets is poised to continue.

ExxonMobile set its all time high of 104.76 in July of 2014.  As more activity in oil and gas drilling in China....AND....more fracking in the US....prices of oil poised to head south some....as is the price of O&G equities.  Not to the crazy lows below $30 a barrel.....but perhaps to the $45 level or so over the next several months.  It depends on how much new drilling that the US and China do over the short term.

This is going to be a LONG SLOW AGONIZING decline over many years....perhaps a few decades....for ExxonMobile.   It won't "go away" anytime soon...and there are obviously other uses for oil other than burning it for transportation or heating.  But this is going to continue to be a painful trade for those long XOM.

LONG TERM TREND:  Down
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND:  Down
SHORT TERM TREND:  Down


Unless their core business changes and adapts over time...DuPont started making dynamite...

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1191 on: January 19, 2017, 08:55:47 PM »
Quote
Unless their core business changes and adapts over time...DuPont started making dynamite...

I'm not too familiar with Dupont's INITIAL "business model" or focus.  But yes....MANY companies change their business model.

Those with FORESIGHT.....like Amazon and Tesla just to name two......knew from the beginning that their focus was NOT a single product.

In Amazon's case....they knew they could broaden out drastically from just books.  From Tesla's standpoint....they knew they had a "starting point" which was the HIGH END OF THE CAR MARKET with their Roadster....but I think they always viewed themselves as an "electric company" of sorts (powering cars....powering businesses and homes.....and storage of electricity).

The French oil company Total has ALSO viewed itself more broadly as an ENERGY COMPANY...not a narrower focus such as "oil and gas" (as Exxon has).  That is why they bought the company Sunpower (US solar company).

There will be many oil and gas companies that will NOT be able to make the "business model change".....either because of the lack of monetary wherewithal....or because of stubbornness or shortsightedness. 

History is littered with companies like Polaroid and Sears that were NOT able to pivot when either technology or consumers taste changed.

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SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1192 on: January 22, 2017, 06:45:31 PM »
list of U.S. Fossil Fuel subsidies

This is a useful and eye-opening list.  I often take on the fool's errand of debating climate change in online forums.  I never expect to alter the view of the individual I'm debating, I do this to contribute my part to shifting the consciousness of the readers. 

I'm confident that the right-wing interests pay a small army of people to do the same thing I do, but on the opposite side of these arguments.

I've come across assertions that the fossil fuel industries are not subsidized by the government, only the green energy sources enjoy subsidies, creating market distortions and taxpayer burdens.  The assertions are clearly wrong, but I've lacked ammunition in some arguments. 

Thanks for helping to fill my quiver with a bunch of arrows!

It's a critical document for those of us who publicly debate the deniers in public forums.  I found the full .pdf document here:
http://g20chn.org/English/Documents/Current/201609/P020160919419901132079.pdf
For your convenience, it's shortened here:
http://bit.ly/USFFSubs

Now, to find one of those charts that shows solar and wind now becoming competitive without subsidies, that's my next task. . . .

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1193 on: January 24, 2017, 03:43:37 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1194 on: January 24, 2017, 03:30:41 PM »
Trump Plans Orders Approving Keystone, Dakota Pipelines
Quote
President Donald Trump intends to sign two executive actions today that would advance construction of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Keystone was rejected under former President Barack Obama. Trump’s move on Energy Transfer Partners LP’s 1,172-mile Dakota Access project aims to end a standoff that has stalled the $3.8 billion project since September, when the Obama administration halted work on land near Lake Oahe in North Dakota.

The moves, taken on Trump’s fourth full day in office, mark a major departure from the Obama administration’s handling of the controversial oil pipelines. The steps vividly illustrate Trump’s plan to give the oil industry more freedom to expand infrastructure and ease transportation bottlenecks.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-24/trump-said-to-plan-orders-approving-keystone-dakota-pipelines
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1195 on: January 26, 2017, 11:48:26 PM »
Short (cringeworthy) video: Trump signs executive order approving Keystone XL, Dakota Access pipelines.
"Terms to be renegotiated by us."


Article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-24/trump-advances-keystone-and-dakota-pipelines-fulfilling-pledge
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1196 on: January 27, 2017, 12:42:51 AM »
'It's A Big One': Iowa Pipeline Leaks Nearly 140,000 Gallons Of Diesel
Quote
An underground pipeline that runs through multiple Midwestern states has leaked an estimated 138,000 gallons of diesel fuel, according to the company that owns it, Magellan Midstream Partners.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/26/511636325/its-a-big-one-iowa-pipeline-leaks-nearly-140-000-gallons-of-diesel
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longwalks1

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1197 on: January 27, 2017, 01:17:41 AM »
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2017/01/25/pipeline-leaks-thousands-gallons-diesel-northern-iowa/97051728/

About the Iowa leak.
Quote
"It's a big one — it's significant," Jeff Vansteenburg of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources
- Jeff is an o.k. guy. 

 I waded and pounded stakes into the creek bed  with Jeff VanSteenburg - It was for setting up an event based analysis of nitrates in some creeks once  Maybe 34 years ago.  UofIowa Hygienic lab and DNR collaboration.  Time flies. 

And noticed on the same page is the Dakota pipeline protests in Iowa, with my other alma mater, the Des Moines Catholic Worker is in the thick of protests at Branflakes - Branstads office and also on the Big Muddy.. 

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/videos/news/2893066142001/5293623782001/ 

Note, do not go limp when doing civil disobedience (Iowa national guard troops deployed to Central America) at the Iowa capital.  It was excruciatingly painful  in 1987 when I had my first introduction to pain compliance techniques  in the elevator at the hands of a Captain and Lieutenant of the State Troopers. 

Much nicer in Canada.

Csnavywx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1198 on: January 27, 2017, 03:26:18 AM »
How about this one?  ;)

Low-res version of the chart discussed in this article:
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/25/cost-of-solar-power-vs-cost-of-wind-power-coal-nuclear-natural-gas/

Original report and chart here:
https://www.lazard.com/media/438038/levelized-cost-of-energy-v100.pdf

What we really need to see is LACE (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy), NOT LCOE, especially if we're talking about displacing capacity. In addition, I see no estimate of fully amortized coal plants. Most of the fleet is fully amortized and the cost of running them is far cheaper than the data presented here. (This is why I am ambivalent about sources like CleanTechnica -- they nearly always present the rosiest view and very little research or data that contradicts that view.)

Also, while wind and solar have very high value at low penetration, they suffer greatly in added-value after just 10-20% penetration. (A carbon price would help, but we all know that ain't gonna happen anytime soon now.)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1199 on: January 28, 2017, 08:52:57 PM »
You may recall that Chevron was the only major U.S. oil company to report a profit in 2015.  (Irony:  Tesla made more profit in Q3 2016 than the U.S. oil majors combined made in all of 2015.)

Chevron’s First Loss in Decades Signals Hard Time for Giants
Quote
Chevron Corp. posted its first annual loss since at least 1980 as the world’s biggest oil companies struggle to emerge from the worst collapse in a generation. Investors punished the stock, wiping out about $5 billion in market value.

The company had a $497 million loss last year and failed to replace all of the crude and natural gas it pumped with new reserves, San Ramon, California-based Chevron said in a statement on Friday.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-27/chevron-swings-to-profit-as-oil-emerges-from-two-year-slump
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