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DrTskoul

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #650 on: January 20, 2017, 03:04:05 AM »
Study of past warming signals major sea level rise ahead

http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aai8464

.. The findings in the journal Science show that ocean surface temperatures during the Earth's last warm period, some 125,000 years ago, were remarkably similar to today.

But what concerns scientists is that sea level back then was 20-30 feet (six to nine meters) above what it is today...
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #651 on: January 20, 2017, 04:52:23 PM »
New worst-case scenario by NOAA for global (and regional) sea level rise:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

For RCP8.5 they estimate a 0.1% chance of 2.5m in 2100 and 9.7m in 2200, with from 2150 to 2200 an average rise of 84 cm per decade.

longwalks1

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #652 on: January 21, 2017, 08:28:40 PM »
I can't help but be sarcastic about the "US_final.pdf" part of the url.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #653 on: January 23, 2017, 01:13:48 AM »
Study of past warming signals major sea level rise ahead

http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aai8464

.. The findings in the journal Science show that ocean surface temperatures during the Earth's last warm period, some 125,000 years ago, were remarkably similar to today.

But what concerns scientists is that sea level back then was 20-30 feet (six to nine meters) above what it is today...

Here is any image of the submerged lands (in red) 125,000 years ago
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DrTskoul

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #654 on: January 23, 2017, 01:41:03 AM »
What is depicted by red?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #655 on: January 23, 2017, 01:59:11 AM »
What is depicted by red?

The land that was submerged 125,000 years ago that are not yet submerged today; but by extension may well be submerged (either just submerged or very substantially submerged) sometime in the future.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2017, 02:12:25 AM by AbruptSLR »
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magnamentis

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #656 on: January 23, 2017, 11:55:24 AM »
i think that at same temps there was more land submerged because it took much longer for the temps to rise, hence in the process give more time for the ice to melt.

this time the warming process is significantly faster which leaves the SLR behind but there is no doubt IMO that it will catch up eventually and probably with force, means very quickly (abruptly LOL) as compared to past occurrences.

in short, i think that it's the speed of events that explain the difference of lower sea levels at same temps.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #657 on: February 10, 2017, 05:35:48 PM »
A new study looks at regional sea level rise impacts in North America, using the projections from the U.S. National Climate assessment they find that some communities in the North East will experience tidal flooding up to 3 times per week by 2040.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0170949

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

    Kristina A. Dah et al

Abstract

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #658 on: February 11, 2017, 07:19:12 PM »
Article based on the PLOS ONE study described in comment #657:

Coastal Cities Could Flood Three Times a Week by 2045
The lawns of homes purchased this year in vast swaths of coastal America could regularly be underwater before the mortgage has even been paid off, with new research showing high tide flooding could become nearly incessant in places within 30 years.

Such floods could occur several times a week on average by 2045 along the mid-Atlantic coastline, where seas have been rising faster than nearly anywhere else, and where lands are sagging under the weight of geological changes.

Washington and Annapolis, Md. could see more than 120 high tide floods every year by 2045, or one flood every three days, according to the study, published last week in the journal PLOS ONE. That’s up from once-a-month flooding in mid-Atlantic regions now, which blocks roads and damages homes.

“The flooding would generally cluster around the new and full moons,” said Erika Spanger-Siegfried, a Union of Concerned Scientists analysts who helped produce the new study. “Many tide cycles in a row would bring flooding, this would peter out, and would then be followed by a string of tides without flooding.”

The analysis echoed findings from previous studies, though it stood out in part because of its focus on impacts that are expected within a generation — instead of, say, by the end of the century....
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/coastal-cities-flood-three-times-a-week-2045-21153
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jai mitchell

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #659 on: February 16, 2017, 06:34:45 PM »
heinrich events were caused by warming oceans, not air as previously thought and the implications for Thwaites and PIG are devastating.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170215131551.htm

"We're seeing ocean warming in those region and we're seeing these regions start to change. In that area, they're seeing ocean temperature changes of about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit," Bassis said. "That's pretty similar magnitude as we believe occurred in the Laurentide events, and what we saw in our simulations is that just a small amount of ocean warming can destabilize a region if it's in the right configuration, and even in the absence of atmospheric warming."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #660 on: February 22, 2017, 01:06:25 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Think States Alone Can't Handle Sea Level Rise?  Watch California".

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/think-states-alone-cant-handle-sea-level-rise-watch-california/

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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #661 on: March 13, 2017, 10:16:33 PM »
Abadie et al 2016:
http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2016.00265/full

Climate Risk Assessment under Uncertainty: An Application to Main European Coastal Cities

Abstract:
This paper analyses the risk of extreme coastal events in major European coastal cities using a stochastic diffusion model that is calibrated with the worst case emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The model incorporates uncertainty in the sea-level rise (SLR) distribution. Expected mean annual losses are calculated for 19 European coastal cities, together with two risk measures: the Value at Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES). Both measures are well-known in financial economics and enable us to calculate the impact of the worst SLR paths under uncertainty. The results presented here can serve as valuable inputs for cities in deciding how much risk they are willing to accept, and consequently how much adaptation they need depending on the risk aversion of their decision-makers.

Archimid

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #662 on: March 15, 2017, 10:46:15 PM »
My apologies for the duplicate thread. I couldn't find this thread so I started a new one. I'll repost the contents of the other thread here.

This is a thread to post links to real world examples of the impacts of sea level rise. Sea level rise is no longer a future threat. It is a clear and present danger.

I'll start with this:

USA – Louisiana Wetlands Struggling With Sea-Level Rise 4 Times the Global Average

http://floodlist.com/america/usa/louisiana-wetlands-sea-level-rise

Extract:
The study by researchers in Tulane’s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and published in the open-access journal Nature Communications shows that the rate of sea-level rise in the region over the past six to 10 years amounts to half an inch per year on average
.
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Archimid

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #663 on: March 15, 2017, 10:47:10 PM »
SeaIceSailor posted the following in the closed thread:

A few months old report but kind of fits, the text of the link is a good summary

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sea-level-rise-swallows-5-whole-pacific-islands/#
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #664 on: March 16, 2017, 04:10:02 PM »
Vousdoukas et al 2017, Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000505/full

Abstract
Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

Plain Language Summary
Future extreme sea levels and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Here, we show changes in all acting components, i.e., sea level rise, tides, waves, and storm surges, until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century the 100-year event along Europe will on average increase between 57 and 81 cm. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase, amounting to nearly 1 m under a high emission scenario by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year coastal flood event could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming.

Archimid

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #665 on: March 20, 2017, 03:33:58 PM »
Nothing new for those on the know, but still nice video.


Sea level rise: Miami and Atlantic city fight to stay above water – video:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2017/mar/20/sea-level-rise-miami-and-atlantic-city-fight-to-stay-above-water-video
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Jontenoy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #666 on: March 20, 2017, 03:45:48 PM »
Hi All
This is my first blog on your wonderful site which I have been watching for nearly a year.
Today NASA announced that Greeland and Antarctic are losing 400 gigatons of ice / year. I have just calculated this as giving 2.38 mm / year height increase. Water thermal expansion + glacial and other surface ice would be in addition to this (also aquafier surface pumping). Does this seem a bit high ?

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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #668 on: March 20, 2017, 05:42:16 PM »
Yes, it does sound too high.
NASA said on March 15th:
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/76/grace-mission-15-years-of-watching-water-on-earth

"Since GRACE launched, its measurements show Greenland has been losing about 280 gigatons of ice per year on average — a bit less than twice the weight of Mt. Everest — and Antarctica has lost slightly under 120 gigatons a year."

So the 400 gigatons/yr is for Greenland and Antarctica combined, not separately. This means 1.11 mm/yr of SLR from both ice sheets combined, not 2.38 mm/yr.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #669 on: March 21, 2017, 03:25:18 PM »
Atlantic City and Miami Beach: two takes on tackling the rising waters
Sea level rise is making floods more common and as the New Jersey resort braces for the next Sandy, the well-heeled Florida city is throwing money at the problem
“We can have floods at the drop of a hat,” Burke said. “Without even realizing we’re going to have them. It’ll be raining and within seconds you’ll see flooding in the street. You don’t read about it in the paper. You don’t hear about it on the radio or television. You just have water that just comes up and if you don’t have warning and move your car, you have water in the car.”

These flooding events have increased seven-fold in Atlantic City since the 1950s, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and are spurred by rainfall or simply a spring tide abetted by unhelpful gusts of wind. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/20/atlantic-city-miami-beach-sea-level-rise
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rboyd

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #670 on: March 21, 2017, 05:40:12 PM »
A single section of the article sums things up so well

"Retreat isn’t on the agenda, but as in Atlantic City there’s an equity issue at play. The affluent can afford to raise their homes, lobby for sea walls and water pumps, and stay in a nice hotel if it all gets a bit much".

The rich/affluent can afford to insulate themselves in the short term, so that they can live as they have become accustomed to, including low taxes and "small government". Of course the longer-term may be a lot quicker in coming than they expect (e.g. Hansen's ice sheet melt doubling rates). Should be spending their money to get a climate activist in the White House and as Governor of Florida, and accepting a high (realistic) social cost of carbon reflected in carbon taxes.

Also should read "Nature is putting retreat on the agenda", but as soon as we accept that all that expensive real estate will lose value very fast. The banks would take a huge hit.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #671 on: March 22, 2017, 04:10:12 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Ice cap in place for millions of years is on track to vanish"; & it states that the loss of small glaciers, like Barnes Ice Cap, will likely accelerate in the near future thus accelerating sea level rise.

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060051765

Extract: "Global warming is causing significant melting throughout the region and will claim the last remnants of a massive ice sheet that once covered all of North America and that remained stable for 2,000 years, according to findings published yesterday in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. The Barnes Ice Cap, which is about the size of Delaware and is located on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, is likely to disappear even if humanity curtails its combustion of fossil fuels at levels not currently expected, even under the most conservative estimations.

All of those suggest a much higher sea level in the near future. Sea-level rise is now coming from small glaciers, such as the Barnes Ice Cap, as well as the expansion of the sea as it gets warmer. But that could quickly change if the current level of warming is observed, Miller said."
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Dry_Land_Is_Not_A_Myth

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #672 on: March 24, 2017, 02:02:17 AM »
Newbie here,
What are the best places to view sea level rise data? I've been looking at http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ . Anyone know of real time measurements or more than 2-3 monthly updates? Relatedly, it seems like sealevel.colorado should have updated by now. Anyone know if it's still ongoing? 

Neven

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #673 on: March 24, 2017, 07:33:37 AM »
Welcome to the ASIF, Dry_Land_Is_Not_A_Myth, our profile has been released.

As for our question, I also watch the University of Colorado graph (occasionally), but I would expect there are others as well.
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wehappyfew

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #674 on: March 24, 2017, 02:20:31 PM »

Laurent

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #675 on: March 26, 2017, 06:26:27 PM »
Jontenoy, the rumor I hear is that 1mm of SLR is 360GT of ice melted without Thermal expansion. Sounds nearly ok if I calculate with my big fingers.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #676 on: March 29, 2017, 02:48:46 PM »
Newbie here,
What are the best places to view sea level rise data? I've been looking at http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ . Anyone know of real time measurements or more than 2-3 monthly updates? Relatedly, it seems like sealevel.colorado should have updated by now. Anyone know if it's still ongoing?
You can also try the NASA vital signs pages...
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

This has recently updated, and it appears we will soon have a new record for Mean Sea Level Rise (MSLR).

Early March 2016 saw a value of 88.5mm above baseline. After falling back to 83.2mm by mid August, it has started to climb rapidly again. The latest value (Jan 4th 2017) is 88.2mm, or just 0.3mm below the record. MSLR is showing little, or no, sign of slowing.

Hi All
This is my first blog on your wonderful site which I have been watching for nearly a year.
Today NASA announced that Greeland and Antarctic are losing 400 gigatons of ice / year. I have just calculated this as giving 2.38 mm / year height increase. Water thermal expansion + glacial and other surface ice would be in addition to this (also aquafier surface pumping). Does this seem a bit high ?
Here's the arithmetic needed to do the calculation. (NB I rounded certain values, and ignored the differing densities of fresh water and sea water.)

1 litre (10x10x10 cm) of water has a mass of ~ 1kg
1 cubic metre of water therefore has a mass of ~ 1 tonne
1 cubic km of water therefore has a mass of ~ 1 Gigatonne (Gt)

The surface area of the planet is ~ 511 million sq kms
The oceanic surface area is approx 70% of this, or ~ 358 million sq kms

1Gt of melted ice (1 cubic km) spread over this oceanic surface would equate to an increase in sea level of (1/358,000,000 kms) or (1/358 millimetres)

400Gt of melted ice would therefore equate to 400/358 millimetres, which is ~ 1.12mm

Archimid

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #677 on: April 06, 2017, 03:05:49 AM »
Miami's fight against sea level rise

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170403-miamis-fight-against-sea-level-rise

Extract:
Just down the coast from Donald Trump's weekend retreat, the residents and businesses of south Florida are experiencing regular episodes of water in the streets. In the battle against rising seas, the region – which has more to lose than almost anywhere else in the world – is becoming ground zero.

I thought this article had great imagery.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #678 on: April 06, 2017, 03:25:03 AM »
Dr. Eric Rignot gave a captivating lecture on projections of sea level rise here:



5 min highlight of his talk here:



very interesting to hear how the discussion within the IPCC has changed and how they are still discussing this issue as though we have not already locked in 3 meters of SLR by 2100.  In addition, the projections of 8-9 meters of locked in sea level rise under 2C is not on 2,000 year time lines but rather closer to 200 years.
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DrTskoul

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #679 on: April 08, 2017, 03:33:52 AM »
Rising Waters Threaten China’s Rising Cities

The rising South China Sea and the overstressed Pearl River network lie just a meter or so below much of this new multitrillion-dollar development — and they are poised to drown decades of progress, scrambling global supply chains and raising prices on a world of goods like smartphones, T-shirts, biopharmaceuticals and even the tiny springs inside your ballpoint pens.

As always, climate change works like an opportunistic pathogen, worsening existing woes, not acting alone. This can make it hard to pin down, easy to dismiss. Notoriously, China today is crippled by air pollution, linked to local emissions from coal-fired power plants, steel factories and cars. New research shows that rising temperatures and stagnant air resulting from climate change — caused largely by worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide — are exacerbating China’s smog crisis, which has contributed to millions of premature deaths.

The Chinese government has become an outspoken voice on climate change. President Xi Jinping, who is meeting this week with President Trump, has urged the signatories of the 2015 Paris climate accord to follow through on their pledge, while state-run Chinese media has criticized the Trump administration for “brazenly shirking its responsibility on climate change.”

China is now the world leader in domestic investment in renewable energy, and over the past decade the central authorities in Beijing have made environmental performance a higher priority for civil servants. But stronger mandates haven’t yet overcome the pace of expansion, a decentralized fiscal system, lax enforcement and a culture that frequently pits growth against green. The country continues to consume as much coal as the rest of the world combined, and to increase its steel capacity.
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #680 on: April 08, 2017, 01:51:12 PM »
Le Bars et al 2017, A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss:
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512

Abstract
The potential for break-up of Antarctic ice shelves by hydrofracturing and following ice cliff instability might be important for future ice dynamics. One recent study suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet could lose a lot more mass during the 21st century than previously thought. This increased mass-loss is found to strongly depend on the emission scenario and thereby on global temperature change. We investigate the impact of this new information on high-end global sea level rise projections by developing a probabilistic process-based method. It is shown that uncertainties in the projections increase when including the temperature dependence of Antarctic mass loss and the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. Including these new uncertainties we provide probability density functions for the high-end distribution of total global mean sea level in 2100 conditional on emission scenario. These projections provide a probabilistic context to previous extreme sea level scenarios developed for adaptation purposes.

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #681 on: April 08, 2017, 10:25:31 PM »
Worst-case sea level rise estimates in 2100 by Le Bars et al 2017: 2-3m (RCP8.5) & 1-2m (RCP4.5). This could imply 4-5m in 2200, even with pretty strong mitigation. All the more reason, if that was still needed, to make sure the Paris Agreement is implemented and warming kept well below 2C.

TerryM

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #682 on: April 08, 2017, 11:00:41 PM »
Worst-case sea level rise estimates in 2100 by Le Bars et al 2017: 2-3m (RCP8.5) & 1-2m (RCP4.5). This could imply 4-5m in 2200, even with pretty strong mitigation. All the more reason, if that was still needed, to make sure the Paris Agreement is implemented and warming kept well below 2C.


How???


Terry

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #683 on: April 08, 2017, 11:32:40 PM »
How? Good question. Kevin Anderson for one proposes system change and a Marshall Plan style approach:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIODRrnHQxg&feature=youtu.be

Not likely we'll succeed, but maybe not completely impossible either, yet.

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #684 on: April 09, 2017, 08:00:41 AM »
I think Greenland will melt in place, but not catastrophically. I think WAIS will go, catastrophically. The only question in my mind is timescale. Every indication is decades, not centuries. When global SLR hits 10mm/yr i think people might wake up. Especially since so many live so close to the ocean.

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #685 on: April 09, 2017, 09:48:44 AM »
How???

If not thru system change, then maybe thru making 2020 the global climate turning point, as proposed by Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Anders Levermann and others:
http://time.com/4731632/climate-change-2020-trump/

The report is by Carbon Tracker, Climate Action Tracker, PIK and Yale, with a preface by Rahmstorf & Levermann:
http://www.mission2020.global/2020TheClimateTurningPoint.pdf

Yes we can, can't we?

oren

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #686 on: April 09, 2017, 10:24:29 AM »
The sad thing is that we certainly can, but we won't  :'(

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #687 on: April 09, 2017, 11:06:37 AM »
we won't  :'(

Can you be absolutely 100% sure of this?
It may not be likely, but who knows we'll surprise ourselves.
We won't know unless we try.

oren

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #688 on: April 09, 2017, 11:56:47 AM »
Of course, there is always hope and I'm not saying we shouldn't try. Just that my assessed probability is low, and it saddens me.

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #689 on: April 09, 2017, 12:23:03 PM »
I share your realism and grief.

And yet, or better, because of that, we need all the optimism and hope and moral and creative strength we can find within and among ourselves, to mobilize society to act with the necessary speed and power, as shown so well by Al Gore in his 2016 Ted-talk in Vancouver:


Political will is a renewable resource.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #690 on: April 09, 2017, 03:38:57 PM »
I think Greenland will melt in place, but not catastrophically. I think WAIS will go, catastrophically. The only question in my mind is timescale. Every indication is decades, not centuries. When global SLR hits 10mm/yr i think people might wake up. Especially since so many live so close to the ocean.

Sea level rise will most certainly cause people living along the SE coast of Florida to wake up but it will be to pack their suitcases, load their cars and drive away from their worthless homes for the last time. It will be left to the policy makers to decide what to do with all of these built structures.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #691 on: April 09, 2017, 04:05:34 PM »
I think Greenland will melt in place, but not catastrophically. I think WAIS will go, catastrophically. The only question in my mind is timescale. Every indication is decades, not centuries. When global SLR hits 10mm/yr i think people might wake up. Especially since so many live so close to the ocean.

Sea level rise will most certainly cause people living along the SE coast of Florida to wake up but it will be to pack their suitcases, load their cars and drive away from their worthless homes for the last time. It will be left to the policy makers to decide what to do with all of these built structures.

There are many places where sea level rise is and has been at or above 10mm p.a., due to accompanying land subsidence. See below (but don't tell scott pruitt as this epa page talks about climate change).

https://www.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-coastal-areas
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #692 on: April 09, 2017, 11:28:48 PM »
The question is what DeConto & Pollard 2016 means for the SLR-probability estimates of NOAA 2017:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Le Bars et al 2017 give estimates for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, but what about RCP2.6? Does DeConto & Pollard for example imply a 4% chance of 1m or more in 2100 and 3m or more in 2200? So about double the risk compared to the estimates in tables 4 and 5 of NOAA 2017 below?

Buddy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #693 on: April 16, 2017, 06:30:24 PM »
What is sea level going to do in the coming months and next several years?  Here is one possible look.....

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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #694 on: April 16, 2017, 06:37:47 PM »
What is sea level going to do in the coming months and next several years?  Here is one possible look.....

So that would be almost a doubling of the rate of SLR? From about 3 mm/yr to almost 6 mm/yr...

Buddy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #695 on: April 16, 2017, 08:29:57 PM »
So that would be almost a doubling of the rate of SLR? From about 3 mm/yr to almost 6 mm/yr...

As those immortal words say....."it is, what it is."  We have formed a "channel with more slope to it" starting in about 2010.  That is what HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.  The only thing I have done is to "connect the dots".

UNFORTUNATELY.....the "fundamentals" of (1) increasing RATE of atmospheric temperatures, and (2) increased melting of the ice sheets (3) increasing CO2 and methane, etc...........SUPPORT the "technical view" of the chart itself (again....the FUNDAMENTLS form the chart....not the other way around).

The rate of sea level rise as noted by Dr. Hansen in his research has a good chance of being attained....and THAT will be a LOT MORE than 6 mm per year (20 inches per decade....2 INCHES PER YEAR if my memory is correct).   Of course....we're a long ways from that RIGHT NOW....but since we are accelerating, I'm afraid that is going to be all too achievable.

Don't look behind....LOOK AHEAD.

 

 
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oren

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #696 on: April 16, 2017, 08:30:52 PM »
What is sea level going to do in the coming months and next several years?  Here is one possible look.....
Buddy I must say these blue and red straight "trend" lines sure look like cherry-picking. I too fear that there has been some acceleration in SLR in the last few years, but this chart does not show a doubling. The 2010 low was not representative of the previous trend, but its biggest negative anomaly instead. The data points since around 2014/2015 that are above the black trend line are interesting and disturbing but not long enough to form a certain signal.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #697 on: April 16, 2017, 08:44:09 PM »
Per the attached Jason-2 SLR series from July 17 2008 to Dec 30 2016, the recent trend line has a slope of at least 4.44 mm/yr
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Buddy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #698 on: April 16, 2017, 09:37:39 PM »
Buddy I must say these blue and red straight "trend" lines sure look like cherry-picking. I too fear that there has been some acceleration in SLR in the last few years, but this chart does not show a doubling. The 2010 low was not representative of the previous trend, but its biggest negative anomaly instead. The data points since around 2014/2015 that are above the black trend line are interesting and disturbing but not long enough to form a certain signal.

Yes....I can certainly accept that critique.  Changes in TREND are a tricky thing.....because you never know until AFTER they happen.  And differentiating between (1) short term, and (2) intermediate term is fraught with pot holes.

But think about 2 things:

(1) I was ONLY pointing WHAT ALREADY HAS HAPPENED....and what MIGHT HAPPEN over the coming decade or so.  Yes....it is DEFINITELY short term.  Could it just be a short term "blip"....and then head back DOWN to the LONGER TERM TREND LINE?  Sure....it could.

(2) I happen to think that many if not MOST climate scientists have underestimated many things within the climate change realm because they have a CONSERVATIVE BIAS. I think we have begun to see that OVER CONSERVATIVE BIAS come to light over the past few years.....and I think it will continue to "unwind" as accelerating physics play out.

One DISADVANTAGE I have is that I am NOT a "trained scientist".....let alone a trained CLIMATE SCIENTIST.  So that is a disadvantage.

One ADVANTAGE I have is that I am NOT a "trained scientist".....let along a trained CLIMATE SCIENTIST.

Yes....it cuts BOTH WAYS.  I am NOT "weighed down" by looking too closely at every twig and leaf....but instead am looking CLOSELY AT THE BIGGER PICTURE and then "drilling down" to see why "things are happening" on a larger scale (yes....drilling down into what CLIMATE SCIENTSTS are finding).

I have but two simple goals:  (1) Look to see WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING, and then (2) Look ahead to see where we are likely headed over the next decade and DECADES....and communicate that to others.

We'll see how the sea level plays out over the next 5 years or more....but I DO believe we are in an "accelerating pattern" that will play out over time.....  In the case of sea level rise....within the new "channel" that has been established.

NOTE:  I have input a zig-zag "black line" which shows the SHORT TERM "legs" within the LONGER INTERMEDIATE TERM CHANNEL UP.

Fundamentally.....I believe there will be MORE to come at HIGHER LEVELS of melt in future decades.










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AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #699 on: April 21, 2017, 05:32:11 AM »
The following link leads to a report entitled: "Rising Seas in California – An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science", and includes input by Rob DeConto & Claudia Tebaldi (& see the associated image).

http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-california-an-update-on-sea-level-rise-science.pdf
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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