Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon

[Archimid]

Effects of erosion in Rincón, Puerto Rico

[FishOutofWater]

FYI, everyone, Andrew hit well south of Miami in far less populated Homestead, Florida. Miami didn't need to be rebuilt. Andrew was a tight storm so there was local devastation in Homestead but Miami was in good shape.

[Archimid]

In Maryland Sea Level Rise Is Happening Now

[Sigmetnow]

Flooding Hot Spots: Why Seas Are Rising Faster on the U.S. East Coast

...While sea level is rising globally at about a tenth of an inch per year, cities along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States — including Norfolk; Baltimore; Charleston, South Carolina; and Miami, among others — have suffered “sunny day” flooding from seas rising far faster than the global average. One study published last year shows that from 2011 to 2015, sea level rose up to 5 inches — an inch per year — in some locales from North Carolina to Florida. Given growing concerns over the flooding, scientists are now working to unravel the mystery of why some parts of the globe are experiencing so-called “sunny day” flooding that had not been expected for decades under conventional sea level rise projections.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/flooding-hot-spots-why-seas-are-rising-faster-on-the-u.s.-east-coast

[Daniel B.]

These flooding "hot spots" are short-lived, and are caused by global oceanic changes.  "We have demonstrated that SLR hot spot anomalies are a recurring feature along the U.S. eastern seaboard related to the combined cumulative effects of ENSO and NAO forcing during periods when SLR was accelerating along the entire eastern seaboard of the U.S."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017GL073926?referrer_access_token=AGHQ8neWHiAUZxV9c7NGhk4keas67K9QMdWULTWMo8O6l0o_b-NRMP4LOoQZ9YcVA2R0zi84UIeoZ8LsmHqDimooCvzALlA6HoV_3uzAopehmQ_0LgnhJTtwUWjvkUcd

[gerontocrat]

The Fighting Has Begun Over Who Owns Land Drowned by Climate Change
America’s coastal cities are preparing for legal battles over real estate that slips into the ocean.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-04-25/fight-grows-over-who-owns-real-estate-drowned-by-climate-change

A long read but really interesting. Another feast for the lawyers

[JimD]

Many Low-Lying Atoll Islands Will Be Uninhabitable by Mid-21st Century

...Thus, the study scientists project that, based on current global greenhouse gas emission rates, the interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over coral reefs will lead to an annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. Such annual flooding would result in the islands becoming uninhabitable due to frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater resources to recover between overwash events....

https://www.usgs.gov/news/many-low-lying-atoll-islands-will-be-uninhabitable-mid-21st-century

Thus will come the governmental collapse of many small countries and mass migration to places which will not want nor can handle those migrating.

This is just one place this kind of thing will happen.

We don't get past 2050 without huge global disruption.

[Shared Humanity]

And unfortunately, given the very long lag in melt and sea rise, even if we stop global CO2 emissions, our coasts are going to be inundated regardless. Stopping emissions now will prevent more destruction in the next century.

[Sigmetnow]

Louisiana 'islanders' find a new home beyond the water

In the first federal competition to fund innovative resilience projects in the face of worsening storms and extreme weather, the state of Louisiana was awarded $92 million in 2016 by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

Of that $48 million was earmarked to resettle the community of Isle de Jean Charles after Chantel Comardelle, the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe's executive secretary, and colleagues worked with state officials and other groups to submit plans.

Winning the grant pushed the small community into the international media spotlight.

After two years of search and negotiation, 500 acres (202 hectares) has been purchased near Schriever in south Louisiana at a cost of close to $12 million with development to start in 2019.

The land is between 6 feet and 12 feet (1.8-3.7 m) above sea level, higher than 50-year projections for coastal flooding released by the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority. ...

http://news.trust.org/item/20180421070027-bp5s3/

[Sigmetnow]

Can’t help but compare the Japanese solution to SLR and tsunami threats to its shoreline.

After the 2011 tsunami, Japanese investigators found ancient stone markers in the nearby mountains, warning “Do not build below this point.”  But the knowledge was lost or ignored, and now so much development has occurred, retreat seems impossible.

https://www.wired.com/story/photo-gallery-japan-seawalls/

[wili]

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/may/02/cities-from-the-sea-the-true-cost-of-reclaimed-land-asia-malaysia-penang-dubai

The article itself isn't directly about slr, but these developments are particularly idiotic when one takes slr into account. I find it oddly heartening to learn that the US isn't the only place where short-term profit is driving these kinds of insane coastal developments.

Cities from the sea: the true cost of reclaimed land

Asia is growing. Literally. From Malaysia to Dubai, luxury developments are rising on artificial islands and coastlines.

...not to mention that:

...the thousands of sq km of land reclaimed across coastal Asia has meant the annihilation of mangroves, wetlands and reefs – destroying the habitats and breeding grounds for fish, sea turtles, crustaceans, plants and other marine life. In addition, the new cities, transport hubs and industrial zones built on the new land inevitably create added pollution and waste...

[sidd]

Looky here:Benjamin Zycher of the American Enterprise Institute is raising fears of municipal bondholder lawsuits if cities and towns sue fossil fuel companies for sea level rise and such:

"The bond disclosure, however, states, “The City is unable to predict whether sea-level rise or other impacts of climate change or flooding from a major storm will occur, when they may occur, and if any such events occur, whether they will have a material adverse effect on the business operations or financial condition of the City and the local economy.”

"Is it really so obvious that bondholders will not play the very same litigation game? And suppose that the courts in the end decide that the disclosures were inadequate: That might open a floodgate of potential litigation damages that the local taxpayers would not find appealing."

Boy, the AEI is scraping the bottom of the barrel these days. C'mon guys. You got all the money in the world. Hire better help.

http://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/386796-the-unintended-consequences-of-climate-litigation

sidd

[sidd]

Coastal properties valued at zero: The Great Retreat proceeds apace:


“Past government decisions on property boundaries do not imply an obligation to maintain these areas ... ultimate abandonment of property and assets without any form of compensation is a strategy option that may be considered,”

“If council adopts the report it really means the value of these properties in Seabird, Ledge Point and Lancelin, all will be valued at zero. No one will be able to sell. Why should we pay land tax, then? Why should we pay rates? Under the law there’s no precent for compensation to us – but what about the law of morality?”

https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/valued-at-zero-wa-coastal-dwellers-face-financial-ruin-as-sea-rises-20180508-p4ze3z.html


sidd

[TerryM]

sidd
Your above does pose a real moral dilemma.


Could the homeowners insurance companies be convinced that they would save money by declaring the properties as having been destroyed by flood, prior to the water rising? No liability for injuries or death, no payouts for lost furniture or vehicles, no costs for temporary housing after the emergency.
Could be a very hard sell, but everyone might at least minimise their loss, including the insurers.
Terry

[sidd]

"Could the homeowners insurance companies be convinced ..."

If insurance companies were not predatory animals with no moral sense, that might be possible. I fear they are.

sidd

[sidd]

A comprehensive review of sea level rise (open access) : Closed the budget to within 0.3 mm/yr

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/essd-2018-53/

open access

sidd

[gerontocrat]

Scott Pruitt doesn't win them all

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/government-sea-level-rise-report-released-after-charges-of-censorship/

Government Sea Level Rise Report Released after Charges of Censorship
Long-delayed study examines potential for rising seas to damage national parks

[/b]

A high-profile case of alleged scientific censorship ended Friday when the National Park Service published a long-delayed report outlining how rising seas could damage parks across the country.

The report includes references to mankind’s role in climate change—something federal officials had tried scrubbing from the study, according to documents released under a state open records request. The study had languished under administrative review since early 2017.

Although National Park Service officials say the report was handled properly, the study’s lead author says the administrative review process has morphed from a “rubber stamp” into a tool for the government to suppress inconvenient science.

National Parks Press Release and Report

https://www.nps.gov/subjects/climatechange/sealevelchange.htm

https://www.nps.gov/subjects/climatechange/upload/2018-NPS-Sea-Level-Change-Storm-Surge-Report-508Compliant.pdf

[Clare]

Apologies for this rant but I need to vent some of my frustration & seeing none of you know me it seems a safe place to do so!

Our town Council, Napier NZ (~pop 62,000) is currently undergoing their long term planning review. I made a verbal submission to this last week re. their wanting to raise $53M (ratepayers + government) to extend our existing Aquarium (which does need an upgrade or just demolishing). It runs at a $1M annual loss as it is and annual visitors include less than 20% locals, rest are visitors/tourists.

My issue is that it is sited right on the beachfront, 100m from sea & we are recognised as having a sea level rise problem here as much of our town is only a few metres above sea level. Pumping keeps us dry.

This is what I said to the Councillors + I included a few powerpoint images with this:
" In all my reading related to the Expansion proposal I cannot see that it has been examined at all through the lens of climate change. I believe the answers to these questions are fundamental to that project. I have asked them of you before but you only had an answer for one, the number of storm surges overtopping into the curent car park as 4 in the past 10 years. Nothing about the projected lifespan of the building nor the height of the site above mean high tide level.
Surely this information should have been considered before all this grand design concept work and detailed business case were even started?
All the climate change projections for Hawkes Bay conclude with us experiencing an increase in the number and strength of storms and higher storm surges, on top of an increasing sea level baseline..... you may be familiar with this graph. It obviously shows a sea level rise that is not just increasing, the upward curve indicates it is accelerating.
And these figures clarify that for 2040 - 60 is projected to rise 20 - 40 cm above 1995 levels, that is 35 - 55 cm since 1870."

If you want more of a a peek at the propsed design you can here:
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-virtual-flyover-gives-stunning-sneak-peek-napiers-epic-proposed-national-aquarium-expansion

It looks wondeful, grand, I know, but involves an even larger floor area in the basement....
I tried to remind them they need to consider the longer term impacts but they weren't listening to me of course. Decided to go to the next stage. & They haven't even had any geotechnical assessment done yet.
Even with one Councillor saying & in greater detail the same thing. I imagine it's the same scenario everywhere, not just with our small town Council!

Apologies for the rave, one just does their best. I'm a lot more useful just going out every week or so picking up all the trash dropped in my street. 
This pic is from the proposed design;

[Sigmetnow]

Antarctica is losing ice at a staggering rate: 6,500 tons *per second*
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1007032759653715968

Forty percent of sea level rise since 1992 has happened in just the past five years — a three-fold increase in the pace at which icebergs are breaking away from land, according to a comprehensive new study based on satellite data, ground measurements, and models.
...
Antarctica’s glaciers are massive enough to flood every coastal city on Earth. So it’s no exaggeration to say that what happens in Antarctica over the next few decades will determine the fate of not just Miami and Mumbai, but also the course of human history. If we’re lucky and quickly start cutting emissions, Antarctica’s glaciers might mostly remain in place. The alternative is unthinkable.
...

https://grist.org/article/antarctic-melt-holds-coastal-cities-hostage-heres-the-way-out/

[Sigmetnow]

New study:  Rising seas could wipe out $1 trillion worth of U.S. homes and businesses

Some 2.4 million American homes and businesses worth more than $1 trillion are at risk of “chronic inundation” by the end of the century, according to a report out Monday. That’s about 15 percent of all U.S. coastal real estate, or roughly as much built infrastructure as Houston and Los Angeles combined.

The sweeping new study from the Union of Concerned Scientists is the most comprehensive analysis of the risks posed by sea level rise to the United States coastal economy. Taken in context with the lack of action to match the scale of the problem, it describes a country plowing headlong into a flood-driven financial crisis of enormous scale.

“In contrast with previous housing market crashes, values of properties chronically inundated due to sea level rise are unlikely to recover and will only continue to go further underwater, literally and figuratively,” said Rachel Cleetus, an economist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, and a report co-author, in a statement. “Many coastal communities will face declining property values as risk perceptions catch up with reality.”

The report defines chronic inundation as 26 flood events per year, or roughly one every other week — enough to “make normal routines impossible” and render the properties essentially worthless. It builds on the group’s previous work to identify the risk of chronic flooding under a sea-level-rise scenario of two meters (6.6 feet) by 2100. ...

https://grist.org/article/rising-seas-could-wipe-out-1-trillion-worth-of-u-s-homes-and-businesses/

[jacksmith4tx]

I'm trying to feel some empathy for these folks but they represent such a small percentage of the global population and are responsible for such a large % of the damage to the environment I'm just not feeling much sympathy. Up till now the US (and most of the world) has been able to put the losses on the credit card. Maybe it will take an economic crisis to enlighten them to act now and not wait another 30-40 years.

[sidd]

100 year events to come once a year: Extreme flooding events will increase sharply along coastlines.

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-extreme-sea-global-coastlines.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04692-w

Open access. Reas all about it.

sidd

[sidd]

Buried fiber near sea level at risk within 17 years:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-07/uow-ssb071218.php

sidd

[Lennart van der Linde]

Jevrejeva et al 2018 on Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C:
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacc76

Abstract
We estimate a median global sea level rise up to 52 cm (25–87 cm, 5th–95th percentile) and up to 63 cm (27−112 cm, 5th—95th percentile) for a temperature rise of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C by 2100 respectively. We also estimate global annual flood costs under these scenarios and find the difference of 11 cm global sea level rise in 2100 could result in additional losses of US$ 1.4 trillion per year (0.25% of global GDP) if no additional adaptation is assumed from the modelled adaptation in the base year. If warming is not kept to 2 °C, but follows a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), global annual flood costs without additional adaptation could increase to US$ 14 trillion per year and US$ 27 trillion per year for global sea level rise of 86 cm (median) and 180 cm (95th percentile), reaching 2.8% of global GDP in 2100. Upper middle income countries are projected to experience the largest increase in annual flood costs (up to 8% GDP) with a large proportion attributed to China. High income countries have lower projected flood costs, in part due to their high present-day protection standards. Adaptation could potentially reduce sea level induced flood costs by a factor of 10. Failing to achieve the global mean temperature targets of 1.5 °C or 2 °C will lead to greater damage and higher levels of coastal flood risk worldwide.

[sidd]

"$7.4 billion was lost in home values across North Carolina,
South Carolina, Virginia, Georgia and Florida because of sea
level rise flooding from 2005 to 2017. "

Florida: -$5.42 billion

South Carolina: -$1.11 billion

North Carolina: -$582 million"

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/science-technology/article215476785.html
https://www.floodiq.com/                                                       

https://b.floodiq.com/methodology

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11113-018-9473-5

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11113-018-9473-5.pdf

sidd

[Sigmetnow]

Buried fiber near sea level at risk within 17 years:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-07/uow-ssb071218.php

sidd

Another reason to deploy global internet satellite constellations, in low earth orbit with fast latency times....  E.g. SpaceX’s Starlink.

https://www.space.com/39785-spacex-internet-satellites-starlink-constellation.html

[gerontocrat]

Buried fiber near sea level at risk within 17 years:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-07/uow-ssb071218.php

sidd

Another reason to deploy global internet satellite constellations, in low earth orbit

Have they got the same capability as optical fibre? I thought fibre carried most of the world's data traffic.

[Ranman99]

It's all about fibre. Satellite is useful where you can't get onto the fibre. Propagation delay and Bandwidth limitations make them useless for the bulk of data traffic.

[Sigmetnow]

Today’s internet satellites mostly use satellites in high, geostationary orbits; their distance, and the use of redistribution networks, result in long latency periods.  But future satellite constellations in low earth orbit can have direct internet speeds rivaling fiber.

The constellation may be able to bring 5G-like service to billions around the world.
SpaceX testing its own satellite broadband internet network

If realized, SpaceX's satellite constellation would transform a traditionally high-cost, low-reliability service. The space industry is estimated to expand rapidly over the next three decades, with the satellite internet sector anticipated to grow at an exponential rate.

SpaceX will begin launching an initial constellation of 4,425 Ka/Ku band [a term that indicates range on the electromagnetic spectrum] low Earth orbit satellites in 2019, with the system becoming operational once at least 800 satellites are deployed, the FCC documents show. The two test satellites will orbit about 700 miles above the Earth, in the same range as the eventual constellation.

Starlink will offer broadband speeds comparable to fiber optic networks, according to FCC documents, by essentially creating a blanket connection across the electromagnetic spectrum. The satellites would offer new direct to consumer wireless connections, rather the present system's redistribution of signals. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/17/spacex-testing-its-own-satellite-broadband-internet-network.html

[wolfpack513]

Latest AVISO, JASON-3 GMSL data out to June 24.   Coming up on 3 years above the long term trend:3.3 mm per year.  Likely out of time to drop anymore the next 6-12 months now that ENSO continues to warm.

[AbruptSLR]

Not that Fox is a major purveyor of science news; but could sea level rise be contributing to last week's swarm of major earthquakes around the Pacific rim?

'Big One' talk swirls as 69 massive earthquakes hit the Pacific's Ring of Fire in 48 hours

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2018/08/22/big-one-talk-swirls-as-69-massive-earthquakes-hit-pacifics-ring-fire-in-48-hours.html

Extract: "A large swath of earthquakes hit the Pacific's so-called Ring of Fire earlier this week, prompting some to wonder if it is a precursor to the oft-discussed massive earthquake, colloquially known as "the Big One."

Sixty-nine earthquakes, including 16 tremors registering 4.5 or above on the Richter scale, recently hit the area, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which recorded the events but did not issue a warning."

[TerryM]

Zero Hedge has been reporting about the Ring of Fire problems for a few days, but very little from the MSM. I've been following their stories, but I'm still unsure whether it rates as truly unsettling  information, or if it's simply FUD.


There doesn't appear to be anything that we or those who reign over us can do to avert this, so I hadn't posted (until now).
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

Dr Robin George Andrews (@SquigglyVolcano)
8/22/18, 12:29 PM
See all those tabloid tales about "terrifying" quakes along the Ring of Fire? Here are the facts (ft. @kwhudnut):

-They are randomly distributed
-Prediction is impossible
-They have nothing to do with the Big One
-The "Ring of Fire" is in fact a bit silly

Here's What You Need To Know About Those Quakes Along The Ring Of Fire
https://www.iflscience.com/environment/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-those-quakes-along-the-ring-of-fire/

https://twitter.com/squigglyvolcano/status/1032303726114091009

Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones)
8/24/18, 9:53 AM
1/3: There is increased risk after a big earthquake, but it depends on location. Increase is highest at the fault that produced 1st quake & dies off with distance, time and magnitude. So immediately after a M3 (on a 10m fault) there is a tiny increase right at the site.

Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones)
8/24/18, 9:53 AM
2/3: Immediately after a M8 on a 500 km fault, there is a big increase at the fault, that dies off with distance and approaches background around 3-4 times the fault length or something like 2000 km away. The Venezuela earthquake increased the risk in the southern Caribbean.

Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones)
8/24/18, 9:53 AM
3/3: The M8.2 Fiji earthquake increased the risk for a section of the South Pacific - and we saw M6s in Indonesia, Vanuatu and New Guinea. The increase in number of quakes you saw does have a pattern - it just doesn’t extend to the US.

Susan Hough (@SeismoSue)
8/24/18, 10:15 AM
People might imagine the entire Pacific plate is rigid. So if one corner lurches, then of course the other corners will lurch. It's not an unreasonable idea, but it isn't correct. Plates are not 100.00% rigid. For the most part, they move slowly & steadily 2/

Susan Hough (@SeismoSue)
8/24/18, 10:16 AM
They only lock up at the edges, where stress and strain build up, and get released in large earthquakes. When a big EQ happens, the entire plate isn't lurching, it's just the edges catching up with the rest of the plate 3/

Susan Hough (@SeismoSue)
8/24/18, 10:18 AM
There is such a thing as remote triggering, so there is a physical basis for some EQ clustering, potentially including recent activity in the South Pacific. But so far as we know, activity at different places on the Pacific Rim plays out on its own time.

[Sigmetnow]

Found this info I was looking for!

Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones)
8/21/18, 7:15 PM
Number of M≥6.5 quakes worldwide in 2018:
Jan 4
Feb 2
Mar 4
Apr 1
May 1
Jun 0
Jul 0
Aug 8 (as of 8/22)
Average = 2.5 per month
We went 3 months (May 4 to August 5) without any M>6.5s! We've had 8 in 3 weeks!!
Definition of random distribution.

https://twitter.com/drlucyjones/status/1032043468699258880

[Lennart van der Linde]

Cazenave et al 2018 find 3.1 mmm/yr global mean sea level rise from 1993-present, and 3.5 mm/yr from 2005-present, with an acceleration of 0.1 mm/yr from 1993-present:
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/1551/2018/essd-10-1551-2018.pdf

[sidd]

That Cazenave paper pointed out something i had forgotten, that GIS mass change is now about the same as annual turnover:

"The mass loss of Antarctica, about 200 Gt/yr in recent years, is only about 10 % of its annual turnover of mass (2200 Gt/yr), in contrast with Greenland where the mass loss has been growing rapidly to nearly 100 % of the annual turnover of mass."

sidd

[AbruptSLR]

That Cazenave paper pointed out something i had forgotten, that GIS mass change is now about the same as annual turnover:

"The mass loss of Antarctica, about 200 Gt/yr in recent years, is only about 10 % of its annual turnover of mass (2200 Gt/yr), in contrast with Greenland where the mass loss has been growing rapidly to nearly 100 % of the annual turnover of mass."

sidd

For what it is worth, I note that the real risk of abrupt sea level rise comes from ice mass loss due to cliff failures and hydrofracturing of marine glaciers.  As such the recent increase in snowfall in significant parts of both the GIS & the AIS, adds increased gravitational driving force to promote future cliff failures and hydrofracturing of marine glaciers, while reducing the current rates of measured sea level rise.  It is pleasant to believe that society will control anthropogenic radiative forcing before cliff failures and hydrofracturing could result in abrupt SLR; but just because it is pleasant does not mean that it will happen.

[AbruptSLR]

The linked reference indicates that the current methodology used by consensus science for sea level rise projections underestimate the risks of high-end low probability events (which can lead to abrupt sea level rise):

Dewi Le Bars (27 August 2018), "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors", Earth's Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000849

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018EF000849

"Abstract
Sea level rises at an accelerating pace threatening coastal communities all over the world. In this context sea level projections are key tools to help risk mitigation and adaptation. Projections are often made using models of the main contributors to sea level rise (e.g. thermal expansion, glaciers, ice sheets). To obtain the total sea level these contributions are added, therefore the uncertainty of total sea level depends on the correlation between the uncertainties of the contributors. This fact is important to understand the differences in the uncertainty of sea level projections from different methods. Using two process‐based models to project sea level for the 21st century, we show how to model the correlation structure and its time dependence. In these models the correlation primarily arises from uncertainty of future global mean surface temperature that correlates with almost all contributors. Assuming that sea level contributors are independent of each other, an assumption made in many sea level projections, underestimates the uncertainty in sea level projections. As a result, high‐end low probability events that are important for decision making are underestimated. The uncertainty in the strength of the dependence between contributors is also explored. New dependence relations between the uncertainty of dynamical processes, and surface mass balance in glaciers and ice sheets are introduced in our model. Total sea level uncertainty is found to be as sensitive to the dependence between contributors as to uncertainty in certain individual contributors like thermal expansion and Greenland ice sheet."

[Lennart van der Linde]

Table 5 of Le Bars 2018 compared to Tables 1 & 4 of Le Bars et al 2017:

[Shared Humanity]

Great article on the hidden climate change refugee crisis in the U.S.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/24/americas-era-of-climate-mass-migration-is-here

And we, all of us, all of civilization, are most vulnerable when it comes to sanitation. There simply are no long term solutions except migration.

"Twichell began to notice water pumps were spewing plastic bags, condoms and chip packets into the bay. Friends’ balconies started getting submerged. Twichell, a poet, found apocalyptic themes creeping into her work. Last year, she sold the apartment to a French businessman and moved back to upstate New York."


"Sanitation is an immediate preoccupation for Stoddard, given the large proportion of residents who aren’t served by sewage works. “If you’re using a septic tank and your toilet starts to overflow into your bathroom because of water inundation, that’s a basis-of-civilization problem,” he said. “A medieval city wasn’t a nice smelling place and they had a lot of diseases.”

The crisis is hidden because, for the most part, it is individuals making personal choices and bailing on a community. This is about to get real for most Americans.

[Shared Humanity]

Have not been posting on this thread much recently but I have stated, early on, that the crisis is upon us. We are just ignoring it.

City of Miami Beach, Florida:  New water pumps are being installed as part of a new storm water infrastructure.
"City officials say the annual king tides are expected to be almost three inches higher than last year. Extreme high tides in the fall and spring push seawater up through aging infrastructure, flooding some Miami Beach streets with more than a foot of water even on sunny days, snarling vehicle and pedestrian traffic."

Cost: $400 million to help protect the city for the next "25 to 30 years."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/energy-environment/miami-beach-prepares-for-extreme-high-tides/2014/09/17/5926dc16-3e96-11e4-a430-b82a3e67b762_story.html

I have posted this before and skeptics will point out the source as evidence that it should be ignored but the investigative reporting is sound. (It's a shame that the U.S. press is so damaged that we need to rely on the Rolling Stone for accuracy regarding sea level rise.)

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620

Basically, Miami, much of southeast Florida actually, will be abandoned by the end of the century and the finest engineering companies in the world (from Holland) whose expertise is keeping sea water from penetrating coastal land, says there is nothing that can be done.

[Shared Humanity]

There are already 100K refugees from just one region of the country.

The inevitable future of much of the low lying coastal regions of the U.S.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/feb/09/louisiana-population-us-census-new-orleans

[Shared Humanity]

Notice the original comments are 4 years old. The information is out there. The refugees are real. We simply ignore it and them.

All climate change refugees will find themselves just a little bit poorer as a result. Some will be impoverished. As this gets worse, we will see huge numbers of Americans migrating with all of their worldly possessions in a U Haul trailer.

[oren]

Indeed.
Jst as an example, how many Harvey victims had no flood insurance? I guess the "13M by the end of the century" is a gross underestimate.

[gerontocrat]

Indeed.
Jst as an example, how many Harvey victims had no flood insurance? I guess the "13M by the end of the century" is a gross underestimate.

Lack of flood insurance much more common in poorer areas - e.g. the Carolinas. I saw a figure about Wilmington(?) of 10% WITH flood insurance.

[Sigmetnow]

Prepare for 10 Feet [3.1 m] of Sea Level Rise, California Commission Tells Coastal Cities

California coastal cities should be prepared for the possibility that oceans will rise more than 10 feet by 2100 and submerge parts of beach towns, the state Coastal Commission warns in new draft guidance.

The powerful agency, which oversees most development along 1,100 miles of coast, will consider approving the guidance this fall. A staff report recommending the changes was released last week.

Earlier commission guidance put top sea-level rise at 6 feet by 2100. But according to the new report, there’s the “potential for rapid ice loss to result in an extreme scenario of 10.2 feet of sea level rise” by the end of the century. ...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/prepare-for-10-feet-of-sea-level-rise-california-commission-tells-coastal-cities/

[FrostKing70]

I am afraid that most people, Americans included, have an amazing talent for ignoring information which does not impact them directly, or is not a problem right now.    I fear this will be a long, slow retreat from the shores, steadily moving to higher ground.   

A million people moving today is noticeable, but 2,700 people moving every day is lost in the daily grind of our society.

[Bruce Steele]

Sigmetnow, Thanks for the Calif. Coastal Commission document linked in the ScientificAmerican article.
300 pages worth some reading time. The document stresses the position that we need to fall back as opposed to armoring agains't sea level rise. It also says Southern Calif will loose many  of it's beaches.
Many are currently maintained with sand dredged offshore. I wonder how long those efforts to  replenish the beaches will go on. As long as we don't consider dredged sand as armoring I would guess.

[Sigmetnow]

Sigmetnow, Thanks for the Calif. Coastal Commission document linked in the ScientificAmerican article.
300 pages worth some reading time. The document stresses the position that we need to fall back as opposed to armoring agains't sea level rise. It also says Southern Calif will loose many  of it's beaches.
Many are currently maintained with sand dredged offshore. I wonder how long those efforts to  replenish the beaches will go on. As long as we don't consider dredged sand as armoring I would guess.

Right.  We’re not ‘armoring beaches,’ we’re ‘preserving public access’!

[wolfpack513]

New AVISO GMSL data out to early August.  The last +ENSO(2014-2016) got it back above the linear trend.  It never dropped below it the 2 years of -ENSO.  We should see another bump in the next 6 months with El Niño taking off.  Recent studies puts current rates over 4 mm/yr.