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Andreas T

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Siberian Arctic coast
« on: June 08, 2014, 07:47:07 PM »
I thought it would be nice to have a place to come back to and see details of developments along the Siberian coast similar to the threads on Greenlands glaciers. I will try to link to some of the recent posts here which show the Lena delta with interesting comparisons to previous years.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2015, 11:32:48 AM by Neven »

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2014, 08:03:19 PM »
quote author=Yuha link=topic=778.msg27815#msg27815 date=1402111098]
Here's an animation of the key moments in Laptev fast ice melt in 2012.
In the June 13-15 images there are two signs of advanced melt:
  • Expansion of the open water in front of the Lena delta.
  • Blue ice turning into light gray. The appearance of blue signals that the melt has started but the disappearance of blue means that the end is near.
edit 10.6. thanks to Jim I learned to link in Yuha's animation comparing 13th, 14th and 15th with 22nd May June 2012
« Last Edit: June 07, 2016, 11:45:00 PM by Andreas T »

Jim Hunt

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2014, 08:46:00 PM »
I've never tried copying images to a different thread. Let's see if this works.

June 7th 2014 -
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#Laptev


June 14th 2013 -
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2013-images/#Laptev


Seems to! I just wrapped links to the images in the other thread inside the standard image tags
« Last Edit: June 09, 2014, 12:45:51 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2014, 12:43:32 AM »
Sorry, Jim I can't figure out how you did that, where do you pick up the link to the image? I don't want to take too much of your time, but if you could give me some pointers it would be appreciated.

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2014, 02:34:12 AM »
In FireFox I right click on the image and then click on "Copy Image Location" in the resulting pop up menu.

Then click on the "Insert Image" button above and paste the URL you just copied in between the tags.

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Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2014, 11:22:43 PM »
Thanks Jim, I got the idea now, had to switch from explorer to chrome
.....
You might try the false-color Lance-Modis images.  From Neven's Graphs page -->  Arctic Mosaic -->  Bands 3-6-7, yields images like this.  Excellent for distinguishing land from ice from water from clouds:


« Last Edit: June 10, 2014, 11:51:47 PM by Andreas T »

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2014, 12:25:35 PM »
You might try the false-color Lance-Modis images.

I much prefer using NASA Worldview. Try clicking all the way through some of my links above. Once you're there it's only a single click to swap from one false-color representation to another, or from one year to another, or to zoom in and out:

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,!arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-06-07&map=-66752,1684416,582976,2058688
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Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2014, 07:40:35 PM »
Thanks Jim this is really great, makes comparison between different days and different wavelength images very easy.
 I think I will give up on collecting images here on the forum, but I'll try to record days with good visibility here to make it easier to look back later.
Although worldview is quick and has a good menu for dates, there is a projection change before the 6.6.2013 which makes comparison before and after less easy.
14.june2013 has clear sky (new projection)  https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413&time=2013-06-14&map=-293851.958397,1626592.552167,754724.041603,2144736.552167
break up of river ice happened 2.june 2013 according to http://www.klimacampus.de/2472.html
In the middle of last week there was a little thunderstorm. During the next days it became colder – and from the North the fog arrived the next evening. Suddenly the sun was over and for the next days it was not possible to see Stolb or the other mountains surrounding the main channels of the Delta. The Lena wasn’t moving at all, and everything was quiet, though we knew from internet reports that the main spring flood event should arrive soon. But then slowly the water began to rise again – only a little bit at first. In the night to Saturday, 1 June, it started snowing again. We asked whether June can really bring winter back again!  By Saturday night we noticed that the ice is moving again along the river.

On Sunday the weather changed again. It was finally possible to see the other side of the Lena’s banks. But more importantly, the whole river changed: so many huge icebergs were moving very quickly along the river. The Lena showed almost no open water any more: everywhere was ice and so fast! It was so impressive to see this moving ice! We were outside almost the whole day – watching. And the water level was rising and rising, too. In the night the water started flooding the channel between the old and the new station, nearly turning our island into several smaller islands.

although some clouds are around see (old projection!) https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413&time=2013-06-14&map=-293851.958397,1626592.552167,754724.041603,2144736.552167
12. May
22.May
29.May 2013
also offer some visibility
what becomes clear from this is there is some movement of water and flooding before surface ice breaks up on the river and moves downstream
This causes delays between water first appearing at the mouths of the delta and fully open river channels. These ice covered channels, maybe filled with compacted floes can clearly be seen in the satellite images, surrounded by water which possibly melts ice over shallow banks before the deeper channels are ice free.
I have to admit much of this is conjecture, drawn from limited sources, I think of this as work in progress, trying to get better insight  into the processes at work here.

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2014, 10:21:44 PM »
today:
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-06-14&map=-516480,1595904,532096,2106880
 more blue ice is visible further east where snow cover on land is also much reduced (compare with 7th June)
a large crack is visible, will be interesting to see it develop.
hat tip to yuha
Big cracks in Laptev fast ice.

I'm expecting a lot more than a few of cracks within a week as the signs I mentioned a week ago (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg27815.html#msg27815) are now there (best seen in yesterday's MODIS images).

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2014, 11:25:14 PM »
another image posted by Jim 13th June 2014 for comparison with those above

Andreas T

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« Last Edit: June 16, 2014, 05:18:12 PM by Andreas T »

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2014, 08:54:40 AM »

RunningChristo

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2014, 09:23:21 AM »
Very true Andreas! The change from blue to grey, previously noted here at the Forum, that is the last stage of icemelting, the breakup and meltdown will then be a Swift "massacre"!

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c05.2014167.terra.500m
My fancy for ice & glaciers started in 1995:-).

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2014, 11:21:39 AM »
finally a clear view of the Lena delta and the area to the east showing broken ice to the islands (haven't looked up the names yet, can someone help?)
worldview link: http://1.usa.gov/1qnzrUr

Neven

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2014, 11:32:27 AM »
finally a clear view of the Lena delta and the area to the east showing broken ice to the islands (haven't looked up the names yet, can someone help?)
worldview link: http://1.usa.gov/1qnzrUr


Andreas, those are the New Siberian Islands (don't ask me where the old ones are). Back in 2011 I made an animation of the break-up. What day are we at?

Edit: I see now, day 180. So perhaps 2-3 days earlier than 2011? All of it will be gone in about 2 weeks.
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Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2014, 12:09:02 PM »
first cracks started to appear on 14th and were widespread on the 18th, 25th june had very little unbroken ice.
worldview is  great for comparing dates,  but doesn't go back to 2011.
Thanks for your link Neven and the name.

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2014, 09:32:06 PM »
looking further east the comparison between 2013 and 2014 shows colder land in 2014. The 2013 image is nearly two weeks earlier.
The low temperatures in this area can also be seen in the temperature charts but I like to see how that shows on the ground
worldview link: http://1.usa.gov/1pQC9hr

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2014, 01:09:27 AM »
the infra red band31 images now show warm sediment rich water flowing out of the rivers.
http://1.usa.gov/1q9AQuj
 That water melts ice where it comes in contact with it. It also absorbs sunshine over a shorter distance (depth) and therefore reaches higher temperature near the surface.
That at least is my interpretation of what I see and know about this.

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #18 on: July 07, 2014, 02:49:39 PM »
What Shakhova said in her recent video interview is that this warm river water would be OK if it just sat on top and melted ice, bit when the wind churns it down (which is happening more now) it warms the short water column of the shallow sea and exposes the permafrost to unusual melting.

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Laurent

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2014, 06:41:03 PM »
That is what she was saying last year...no ? may be even before I have a bad memory...
Didn't she say something about their relationship with the government ? (I don't understand everything)

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #20 on: July 08, 2014, 03:25:14 PM »
because it shows temperature averages to go with my observation (on 30.6.) from costal ice and snow cover on the ESS coast I'm linking to werthers post from another thread
After the PIOMAS update I figured it good to start to re-assert my assumptions.

First, I had another look on the NCEP/NCAR mean temps to see if I have been wrong on the notion that mean temps over the whole Arctic Ocean were between ’13 and ’12. And that DMI showed just the mean over 4.3 Mkm2 North of 80dN.
I was wrong:


This is 01 April to 45 July ‘13


This for the same period ’14.

Only the Bering Sea/-Strait, part of Alaska and S. Greenland profited from some warmer weather in this period. The severity of the cold for this period over the CAB (app. DMI +80dN) is striking. It looks most like 2009.

I wonder if, indeed, it is partly a snow cover case. If so, posters like Rob Dekker on the blog may be right. I had the impression that his work was mainly based on the continental snow cover, as Rutgers’ depicts.

But then, If there’s a lot of snow on the boreal parts of the continents, that may well extend over the Arctic Ocean too…

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #21 on: July 09, 2014, 11:42:55 PM »
Not sure about its significance but it makes an impressive image:
Chaunskaya bay on the East Siberian coast is melting out rapidly with help from some sediment rich river water.
clear worldview images showing the development are:
http://1.usa.gov/1syHvjk 09/07/14
http://1.usa.gov/1qL405f 08/07/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syHMCB03/07/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syJqEh 30/06/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syJ4hb 27/06/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syISOS 23/06/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syItMe 12/06/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syI8ct 07/06/14

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2014, 09:03:43 AM »
from a link which jdallen has posted on a different thread
.......
http://www.psiee.psu.edu/research/featured_research/gooseff_permafrost.asp

... These collapsed thermokarst areas have significantly increased sediment and nutrient loading to streams, which may have wide-ranging impacts on arctic stream ecosystems.

this makes me wonder whether the images from Chaunskaya bay above show this sediment and nutrient loading.

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2014, 07:16:47 PM »
east of the new sibirian islands the remaining landfast ice is breaking up.
 http://1.usa.gov/1zJeRAI
It had been showing a spreading line of open water along the coast where rivers are bringing in water from the faster warming landmass so landfast may not be quite the right description.
The way it is breaking up also looks like it has quite thin already.

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #24 on: July 19, 2014, 02:16:23 PM »
The swedish icebreaker Oden is in the Laptev reporting air and water temperatures as it goes along see map here http://www.swerus-c3.geo.su.se/.
The focus of their reseearch is on methane in water and sediments but for the moment it provides on the spot data on temperatures to compare with the satellite data.
Moving away from thee ice, the water temperatures have risen to 4.5 degC

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #25 on: July 24, 2014, 09:18:11 AM »
Oden has measured water temperatures up to 6.9 C recently. Parts of that area have been ice free for over a month of course.

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #26 on: August 09, 2014, 05:06:52 PM »
Oden is now in the ESS heading toards Wrangel island.
Their blog page is an interesting read http://www.swerus-c3.geo.su.se/index.php/swerus-media probably more so if you read swedish
This one about ice conditions and weather particularly caught my eye http://ciresblogs.colorado.edu/icebreaker/

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #27 on: August 12, 2014, 08:51:43 AM »
interesting graph displaying salinity measurements along the Oden's path. The ice map is a bit misleading as it will have of course changed as the ship made its journey. Just something to keep in mind looking at the map.
source: http://www.swerus-c3.geo.su.se/index.php/swerus-media

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #28 on: September 06, 2014, 10:13:26 AM »
Jim Hunt has posted this nice map showing "boundaries" for the regions which will help naming areas correctly.

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #29 on: May 29, 2015, 10:55:42 PM »
another year and I'll post some links to good worldview images as I find them:
Chaunskaya bay looks very much like last year at this time but land seems to have a little less snow
http://1.usa.gov/1Qg1ddQ

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #30 on: May 29, 2015, 10:59:54 PM »
Lena Delta on the other hand has a bit more, seems almost a week behind last year.
2014: http://1.usa.gov/1Qg1WM3    2015: http://1.usa.gov/1Qg2r8S

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #31 on: May 31, 2015, 07:50:00 AM »
oddly the ice concentration in polarview shows low concentration where worldview (MODIS) shows unbroken landfast ice. I guess this is some effect which causes misinterpretation of the (AMSR?) sensor on which ice concentrration is based.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2015, 08:28:01 AM by Andreas T »

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #32 on: June 06, 2015, 09:40:22 PM »
snow cover on land and ice rapidly disappearing
worldview link to 4.6. http://1.usa.gov/1ASo11G

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2015, 12:14:47 PM »
Infrared image shows riverwater entering the ESS near Chunskaya bay
http://1.usa.gov/1My95ak
toggle between visible and IR to see warmer temps correlate to muddy colour

Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #34 on: June 09, 2015, 09:14:07 AM »
Nevens observation from the melting season topic copied here so I find it more easily again:

When I said in the latest ASI update that I thought the cyclone might get the ice in the Laptev and East Siberian Seas on the move, I wasn't expecting for the fast ice near the New Siberian Islands to break up already! From yesterday's Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map:



Looking at the concentration maps for June 6th this is extremely early. Other years, like 2010 and 2012, have some green and yellow showing up there, but none go blue until July. Back in 2011 I made an animation wherein it takes until Day 185 at least for some open water to show up:



We're on day 159 now, and this is just a first minor torch.

It might be an artefact, but I've never seen a blue artefact on the UB SIC maps, and clouds are blocking the view on LANCE-MODIS.

Neven

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #35 on: June 09, 2015, 10:20:54 AM »
Thanks, Andreas. Forgot about this topic.
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Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #36 on: June 10, 2015, 07:08:03 PM »
MODIS today shows unbroken but blue i.e. meltponded ice south east of lena delta http://1.usa.gov/1e3lAPU

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #37 on: June 11, 2015, 11:31:15 AM »
A reasonably good view of the fast ice between the New Siberian Islands and the Lena delta today. That Uni Bremen SIC map really fooled me  :):
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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #38 on: June 11, 2015, 11:32:33 AM »
Oh, and I'm moving this thread to the Arctic Sea Ice category, if that's okay with you, Andreas. This Arctic Background category is more suited for longer-term observations.

edit: Done!
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Andreas T

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Re: siberian arctic coast
« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2015, 09:12:44 AM »
Not sure about its significance but it makes an impressive image:
Chaunskaya bay on the East Siberian coast is melting out rapidly with help from some sediment rich river water.
clear worldview images showing the development are:
http://1.usa.gov/1syHvjk 09/07/14
http://1.usa.gov/1qL405f 08/07/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syHMCB03/07/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syJqEh 30/06/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syJ4hb 27/06/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syISOS 23/06/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syItMe 12/06/14
http://1.usa.gov/1syI8ct 07/06/14

compared to  last year the area around chaunskaya bay lost its snow cover earlier and looks greener now.
the ice is now breaking up
for comparison see 1st and 2nd  july 2014  https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule&t=2014-07-02&v=-1582747.323603,1719473.739287,-1058459.323603,1962673.739287
« Last Edit: June 24, 2015, 09:19:47 AM by Andreas T »

jdallen

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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2015, 06:35:34 PM »
That's a region currently on my watch list.  Between heat, melt ponds and thin ice, I expect to see some dramatic changes there over the next ten days or so.
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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #41 on: June 28, 2015, 03:22:19 AM »
Fast Ice breaking up in the ESS at the Kolyma river delta, June 22 and June 27 for comparison.
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Andreas T

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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #42 on: July 05, 2015, 05:42:43 PM »
the ice east of  the lena delta has shown cracks at least since 27th june http://1.usa.gov/1CdTeNk
movement has been back and forth rather than away from the coast  but now area is starting to go down.
comparison with last year shows more ice on lakes which indicates that there has been less warming on the adjoining land. Last year this area was warmer than the coast of siberia further west and east, this year it is the other way round

Andreas T

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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #43 on: July 08, 2015, 09:05:36 AM »
Two images posted by jdallen in the image of the day thread compare chaunskaya bay with two weeks ago :


Andreas T

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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #44 on: July 11, 2015, 12:22:09 PM »
the warm land near the lena delta means landfast ice is going quickly.http://1.usa.gov/1Cveizf
It is now not far behind 2014


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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #45 on: July 12, 2015, 11:09:13 PM »
In this image, about 50,000KM2 of high concentration (>80%) absurdly rotten ice.

The albedo over much of it must be under 0.20
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Andreas T

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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #46 on: March 04, 2016, 12:06:09 AM »
snow depth is high along the coast, something which is probably to be expected with air moving into the arctic from further south. What will be interesting is what effect this will have on the sea ice where theres is no data it seems.

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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #47 on: March 04, 2016, 12:35:51 AM »
snow depth is high along the coast, something which is probably to be expected with air moving into the arctic from further south. What will be interesting is what effect this will have on the sea ice where theres is no data it seems.
My educated guess is - negligible. 

A meter or so of snow takes considerably less energy to melt than even 1/10th the thickness of ice.  It will also be a lot more vulnerable to direct sublimation with heat and low humidity.  QED - a positive anomaly in snow cover depth is no where near as important as one in ice would be.  The areas covered might lose a few days energy to increased albedo, but not much more than that I think.  Considering how fast permafrost has been melting *that* would be a blessing.
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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #48 on: March 04, 2016, 12:59:35 AM »
since albedo determines how much energy is absorbed by the ice or snow, albedo does play a major role. I base this on watching observation bouy footage as much as what I read about this from AWI etc.
Lets see how our guesses play out in July June
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 01:05:13 AM by Andreas T »

jdallen

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Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Reply #49 on: March 04, 2016, 02:20:14 AM »
since albedo determines how much energy is absorbed by the ice or snow, albedo does play a major role. I base this on watching observation bouy footage as much as what I read about this from AWI etc.
Lets see how our guesses play out in July June
Absolutely!

I guess I was unclear on my point.  More succinctly - atmospheric humidity and heat have a much greater role melting snow than they do with ice.  Snow, whether 10CM thick or 10M thick will have about the same albedo, and be affected by sunlight to about the same extent.

Given this, the extra snow should only provide a small number of days of additional coverage, at most.  The additional volume of water contained is not that great, and proportionately, the heat required to melt it is not that much greater than required to melt a normal season's snowfall. 

[edit:  Checking the graphic, most of the area with extra snow has 20CM or less extra.  Of what's left, most has 30CM or less.  2 days of 15C+ temps and wind or one day with a CM or so of rain will tear that down completely.]
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