Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion

[Rubikscube]

This is the ECMWF prognosis for Geo 500Mb and Temp 850Mb 10 days from now:



Interesting if it comes true. Most of what's left of winters' cold seems to flush into NA for one last shot.

The latest ECMWF runs don't bode well at all. This is more or less the same setup we had one month ago, a shattered jet, arctic warmth and winter weirdness everywhere. Not likely to play out in that way exactly, but long term forecasts that remain more or less the same over several runs tend to be very indicative if not very accurate.

[Shared Humanity]

That high pressure over Greenland looks like it will continue to pull warm air into the Atlantic side of the CAB. If true, we should continue to see ice retreating  around Svalbard and FJ.

[werther]

Can you show us a map, SH?
I'm not sure how that configuration coud cause such an effect... need to see/discuss
Mind, the ECMWF map above doesn't tell us much for sea level pressures.
Anyway, looking at all ECMWF info, there's 'cold pole' downward welling cold air on the way for NA, forming a strong, cold high on 1000Mb. So buckle up near the Great Lakes!
And the extended high is forecast to reach well into the Beaufort/CAA/CAB... a last winters' shot providing at least some ASI thickening?

[Jim Hunt]

So buckle up near the Great Lakes!

NASA have published an article on "A Great Freeze Over" of the Great Lakes:

Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze.

MODIS images are also available on NASA WorldView.

[Jim Hunt]

A comparison between March 1st 2013 and 2014, centered on the CAA and courtesy of AMSR2 data from the University of Hamburg.

[ChrisReynolds]

12.739M km^2 for February average CT Area - the lowest average area for February since 1979.

[werther]

Just did a short comparison of ‘winter power’ for the period 1 Oct up to 1 March, ’14 against ’13.

There was no Februari cold spell over the Arctic. Thus, a slight shortfall has turned into a solid lead.
I’m very curious what PIOMAS will report in the coming days, considering this. The differences indicate, as an example, the Beaufort Sea in front of the Mackenzie delta experiencing about mean 4 dC higher temps than last year.

On MODIS, there are new details visible in the rising sunlight. FI cracks north of the Chukchi Sea venting water vapour, indicating the difference between -23dC air and much warmer water under the ice.
Another detail is the broken structure over all the Kara Sea. Surprising, because ‘winter power’was stronger this year. Could it be the rapid ice formation last fall has effectively isolated the sea water from further cooling?

Questions enough, although it takes at least 40 days more for the story to start unfolding N of 70degrees.

For the extent in St.Lawrence, Labrador-, Bering- and Okhotsk Sea, the bell will toll much sooner.

[jdallen]

For the extent in St.Lawrence, Labrador-, Bering- and Okhotsk Sea, the bell will toll much sooner.

Just so.  I'm anticipating fairly sharp, dramatic drops in all 4, but particularly the "external" areas - St. Lawrence, Labrador & Bering. 

I also anticipate rapid destruction of ice in Baffin Bay - it really hasn't gotten very thick, and has been disrupted by fairly continuous flow through Nares.   Looking at it, I wonder if some of the ice off of Labrador is there because of flow south from Baffin, much as that along Greenland is an artifact of the Fram.

[davidsanger]

What's the timing difference between JAXA and NDIC sea ice extent reports? Are they contemporaneous or is one delayed? Isn't at least one of them a 2-day average?

[werther]

Here’s the basis for ‘winter power’ – comparison anomaly 01 Oct-02 Mar:

2013:


and 2014:


Both details taken from NCEP/NCAR, same scale -7 to +7 dC.
Since the first decade of Feb this winter is progressively becoming worse for the ice than last winter.
It is also an eye-opener for those Americans who, based on their local experience, take away the notion of GW to have stopped, reversed or being a hoax.

[idunno]

An intense low in the Greenland Sea...

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather_imagecontainer.php

EDIT; link to DMI site, via...

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

At every height here...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-357.60,88.43,262

...warm Atlantic water is being hastened from approx Newfoundland to approx Kara Sea.

[Jim Hunt]

An intense low in the Greenland Sea...

I think the link you are looking for is:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather.uk.php

DMI's "image container" screws up the obvious links.

I've been looking at the same thing on the "Climate Reanalyzer", but I'm blowed if I can work out how to link to the page I want! Here's the current Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomaly:

[jdallen]

Here's the current Northern Hemisphere ... Temperature Anomaly[/url]:

<slow sad headshake> Yet another amazing, current image from Climate Reanalyzer.

The consistent, persistent temperature anomalies across the arctic basin are astonishing both in scale and duration.  I am wracking my brain trying to think of ways this will *not* severely impact the ability of the ice to resist the coming melt season.

So far, I am failing.

[werther]

Hi JDAllen,
Have you seen the March PIOMAS report?
Let's take a deep breath and take life as it comes. There's not much we can do anymore, I'm afraid.

[Buddy]

<<Let's take a deep breath and take life as it comes. There's not much we can do anymore, I'm afraid.>>

Well.....that is CERTAINLY not the attitude I am taking.  Each to his own....but my ethics will NOT allow me to stand by and watch.  I'm just not made that way......

[Jim Hunt]

With a hat tip to the somewhat unlikely source of Steve Goddard, who I'm currently taking to task on Twitter (TTT for short), it seems some sudden stratospheric warming (SSW for short) may well be on the way. Here's the historical record and the 10 day forecast.

[werther]

Buddy,
Don't take my reply to JDAllen too seriously. Though in my view it is now inevitable for the biosphere to deteriorate, there's still an at least compassionate job left. I just don't want to expect too much, nor judge the ostriches. And I still would like some good laughs along the way (even when mixed with tears).
Hoping and working for some green seats in the local council within a fortnight. That's at least one goal I can support.

[Buddy]

Good....

We (all of us) are now entwined in global warming.   Having worked in the corporate world...I have witnessed people who do "give up"...and it is always with BAD results.  Dealing with climate change is a long battle....and one that I have only come to in the last several years (a little late to the party).

I have to admit, I was "taken back" and very surprised by your original comment.....and now somewhat relieved that I took it "too seriously".

There is a LOT of work to do...especially over the coming decade....

[jdallen]

With a hat tip to the somewhat unlikely source of Steve Goddard, who I'm currently taking to task on Twitter (TTT for short), it seems some sudden stratospheric warming (SSW for short)

This is NOT a good time for an SST event over the arctic....

[Shared Humanity]

I think that, with the relatively weakened state of some of the peripheral seas in the Arctic (Greenland, Barents, Kara, Chukchi, Bering and Okhotsk) and some areas of low concentration in the CAB itself (primarily on the Atlantic side), we may see an unprecedented assault on the CAB this coming melt season.

[crandles]

and snow extent isn't looking good:


http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2014&ui_day=66&ui_set=2

[BornFromTheVoid]

The GFS and ECM have been predicting quite a pattern change across the Arctic over the coming days, with a switch to cold northerlies through both the Barents and Bering seas.
We can see this change at just 2 days out.



And it continue right out to 5 days ahead at least



With both Barents and Bering Seas at or near record lows, this change, even so late in the season, could still bring some significant gains to these regions.

[Sonia]

With both Barents and Bering Seas at or near record lows, this change, even so late in the season, could still bring some significant gains to these regions.

Maybe the Greenland Sea as well?  That looks like a pretty strong dipole forming across the Fram.

[Siffy]

Is this graph accurate? Seems to be a hell of a drop.

[Neven]

Not accurate. Happens a lot with this graph, which is from Uni Bremen if I'm not mistaken.

[Siffy]

Not accurate. Happens a lot with this graph, which is from Uni Bremen if I'm not mistaken.

Thanks Neven

Much appreciated

 

[Jim Hunt]

Is this graph accurate? Seems to be a hell of a drop.

Other graphs have however shown more modest drops, to record lows for the date. This has enabled me to wax lyrical about the ways in which Daily Mail anti science propaganda is regularly recirculated around the denialosphere:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/03/the-arctic-sea-ice-recovery-vanishes/

[Buddy]

Good to see you (and others) call them out.

I know that people tend to "shy away" from the word "liar" in the western world.  However...there are many that need to be CALLED OUT......and called out as LIARS.

People and organizations like FOX, Anthony Watts, Joe Bastardi, Heartland Institute, and others need to be called out for what they have done over the past two decades and more.

You would think that "we" (humanity) had learned a lesson from the decades of lying by the tobacco industry.  Apparently not. 

Imagine if truly "intelligent life" was looking down at us and thinking:  "Let me get this straight....you ALLOW people and organizations to LIE TO YOU WITHOUT BEING HELD ACCOUNTABLE?"

An "intelligent society" is NOT one that allows people or organizations to LIE.   I have said this before on this forum......that the freedom of speech comes with responsibilities:  (1) the responsibility to NOT LIE, and (2) the responsibility to CALL OUT OTHERS THAT DO LIE.

 

[Jim Hunt]

Good to see you (and others) call them out.

Thanks for your kind words Buddy.

Should you or any other others present wish to assist with the "calling out" you may also wish to check out @GreatWhiteCon and/or https://www.facebook.com/GreatWhiteCon, not forgetting http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,578.0.html of course!

[Buddy]

Be more than happy to.   I have had my "hands full" calling out a couple others....but I will certainly enter the fray, and I encourage others to as well.

When I say "enter the fray".......I mean to enter the fray WITH FACTS AND WITH SCIENCE.

THE TRUTH NEVER GOES AWAY.  It just waits for those LOOKING FOR THE TRUTH.....to discover it.

This is a MUCH BIGGER ISSUE than just climate change (although THAT is a HUGE ISSUE).  The issue is that HUMANITY can't advance WITHOUT THE TRUTH.  And you don't get to the truth.....without facts.  So whether the issue is discussing our diet  with the soda industry, issues regarding tax policy, issues discussing climate change, issues regarding agriculture.....etc.  As a SOCIETY...we need to use a "more scientific" approach to dealing with issues.

[Neven]

Just to let you know: I've updated the Concentration Maps page on the ASIG, which allows a quick way of comparing the current Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map with those of previous years in the 2007-2014 period. See for instance March 13th.

[OldLeatherneck]

Just to let you know: I've updated the Concentration Maps page on the ASIG, which allows a quick way of comparing the current Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map with those of previous years in the 2007-2014 period. See for instance March 13th.

Neven,

THANKS!!

This will prove very useful.

[Neven]

This thread has been very useful so far, but I think it's more practical if we use different threads for different seasons, so that the info gets grouped better. Hence, I'm unstickying this thread, replacing it with The 2014 Melting Season.

[Stephen]

Good to see you (and others) call them out.

I know that people tend to "shy away" from the word "liar" in the western world.  However...there are many that need to be CALLED OUT......and called out as LIARS.

People and organizations like FOX, Anthony Watts, Joe Bastardi, Heartland Institute, and others need to be called out for what they have done over the past two decades and more.

You would think that "we" (humanity) had learned a lesson from the decades of lying by the tobacco industry.  Apparently not. 

Imagine if truly "intelligent life" was looking down at us and thinking:  "Let me get this straight....you ALLOW people and organizations to LIE TO YOU WITHOUT BEING HELD ACCOUNTABLE?"

An "intelligent society" is NOT one that allows people or organizations to LIE.   I have said this before on this forum......that the freedom of speech comes with responsibilities:  (1) the responsibility to NOT LIE, and (2) the responsibility to CALL OUT OTHERS THAT DO LIE.

And there are good legal reasons why most of us do not use terms like LIAR.  Organizations like FOX and News Limited have unlimited budgets to pursue action through the courts at the mere mention of that word.  It would be enough to close sites like this and SKS.  So we need to tippy toe around and say thing like "that statement is dishonest".  I would dearly love to do as you say, but I would probably lose my house after getting sued for libel. (here in Australia at least)

[Jim Hunt]

So we need to tippy toe around and say thing like "that statement is dishonest".  I would dearly love to do as you say, but I would probably lose my house after getting sued for libel.

We Brits are much practiced in the subtle art of euphemism. Personally I'm rather fond of "economical with the truth".

[Siffy]

would it be remiss of me to state the term I preference when used as a descriptor of those 'organisations' is "Full of shit."

Just a touch rude and lacking in subtlety but well, to be honest i've never liked charlatans that peddle rubbish.

[Polynya88]

Are any of you monitoring Argo Buoy data? This article looks like another classic "out of context, mis-quoted" example the media are notorious for.
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=8926a1d3-f43f-4f8b-811d-0a0daa3e1012

[ghoti]

Given that it is a "column" and not news and the publication is the National Post there is a near zero possibility of there being anything correct in it. Honestly I am as likely to read that as I would go to the Wall Street Journal for environmental news.

[jai mitchell]

Are any of you monitoring Argo Buoy data? This article looks like another classic "out of context, mis-quoted" example the media are notorious for.
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=8926a1d3-f43f-4f8b-811d-0a0daa3e1012

Poly,

That article was from 2008.  Since 2005, the Argo buoy network has confirmed a steadily INCREASING rate in the increase of ocean heat content.

In other words, the oceans are not only warming, they have been warming recently at a higher rate than when the ARGO buoy first launched (in 2005)

The amount of heat added to the worlds oceans and measured by the Argo buoy network is between 8.5 and 9.5 X 10^23 joules.  This is enough heat to raise the earth's atmosphere by over 25 degrees C.

please see:  https://www.skepticalscience.com/The-Oceans-Warmed-up-Sharply-in-2013-We-are-Going-to-Need-a-Bigger-Graph.html

[Shared Humanity]

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