with that said 2013 is falling behind, but the heat will come.
and FYI is there to meet it = repeated cycle of melt.
anything above 4.0 mil km2 min is a huge success.
for one summer.
The arctic would need a few small miracles to actually grow over say 5 years. The current pattern is nice but it's going to not stay the same, not keep SLPS over the arctic and keep it snowy and cloudy.
It starts in Canada which has flipped warm. part of Siberia about to flip cool. You can see the large field of rising heights, the central Canada warm pool which the surface pressures will escort heat from to the Arctic where it will modify greatly but still be warm and a huge aid in early season melt.
MIjiYKh.gif
The Beaufort gets smoked like a fat Mary Jane. Puff Puff melt. On top of those problems for the arctic you can see shredder II sitting over the Kara pumping even warmer air into that part of the ice pack's edge. This is where the summer melt war is won. These little trenches where powerful solar energy meets quickly falling albedo meets warm moist Southerly flow.
I see the colder protected area's, I know that ice will melt slower. But not talking about the obvious is not neglecting it. But tracking where the higher melt is going on is far more vital to longer predictions.
This is why 2012 caught folks sleeping at the wheel only concerned with numbers on the area and extent charts. While the folks seeing the melt in the trenches knew it was only a matter of time. It was a 3-4 day period from 2011 record on Jaxa, it was the record on Bremen. We have to look at May, August, Sept, differently now.
June and July will be big if not August will be big. One way or another FYI can't as a large hole stop the melt process once albedo is that compromised. The difference in melt becomes to big to stop.
By 192 the Euro is still raking the Canadian arctic. Just like last season. If this patterns emerges as is expected as of now, expect a large pool of water to be open in the Beaufort by May 25th.
By 240 the Euro is still roasting the Beaufort side. With a variable of a Southerly flow but it's warm and Sunny for such a long period. But now there would be no snow left in the interior with a warming hole of water near the shore with ice collapsing.
The Kara is also toast. Constant sunlight and South Westerly winds off the land/Barents will crush the Kara.