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jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #950 on: July 23, 2013, 11:45:08 PM »

Going by that, one reason the cracking in March appeared so dramatic is that the first-year ice was actually thicker and tougher than usual due to a colder than average winter, meaning the (normal) circulation and spread was concentrated into fewer, wider cracks.  They're the ones nearest on the ground, so they're better placed than any of us to know what's going on.

Could be, but the SEARCH report (regional outlook) also has this:

"Kaleschke and Rickert provided an estimate of the difference between March 2013 and March 2012 ice thickness based on preliminary data from the European Space Agency’s satellites CryoSat-2 and SMOS (Figure 6). An increase in ice thickness in the Laptev, Kara, and Barents Seas was highlighted in their report."


Oh, that's funny.  Most of the areas with higher thickness have or are in the process of melting out.  Too ironic.
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Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #951 on: July 23, 2013, 11:48:05 PM »
Yes, the opposite of what one would expect has been happening (I believe PIOMAS had a similar difference between 2012 and 2013). I think it's strange, but that's the Arctic for ya.
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Yuha

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #952 on: July 24, 2013, 10:20:25 AM »
Yes, the opposite of what one would expect has been happening (I believe PIOMAS had a similar difference between 2012 and 2013). I think it's strange, but that's the Arctic for ya.

It's not really that surprising.

The thicker ice in Kara and Barents has now melted but it did melt later than last year.

The difference in Beaufort is mostly explained by multi-year ice.
Just compare the end of May MYI distributions:

ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2012_22.gif
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2013_22.gif

The ice remaining in the eastern half of Beaufort, where the difference is, seems to be almost completely MYI.

The thickness comparison map above is slightly out of date since it is from March and a lot of the MYI entered Beaufort later as shown by the attached animation of ASCAT images for April:

ivica

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #953 on: July 24, 2013, 11:04:03 AM »
GAC 2013 #1 shaping on ice ?
Cropped AMSR2 3.125 km resolution image (Arc_20130723_res3.125_pyres) attached:

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #954 on: July 24, 2013, 12:29:56 PM »
Thanks a lot, Yuha! It makes more sense now.

GAC 2013 #1 shaping on ice ?
Cropped AMSR2 3.125 km resolution image (Arc_20130723_res3.125_pyres) attached:

We could be seeing some more detachment this year.
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Jmo

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #955 on: July 25, 2013, 08:12:38 AM »
Is that impact of the storm already showing on uni-bremen...

Artful Dodger

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #956 on: July 25, 2013, 10:28:47 AM »
Is that impact of the storm already showing on uni-bremen...
Hi Jmo,

Difficult to say, since you've clipped the DATE off the UniBremen sea ice chart... ;)

But yes, we'd expect a reduced sea ice concentration at the center of the low pressure system, due to upwelling sea water and net divergence of sea ice caused by Ekman pumping.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2013, 12:34:08 PM by Artful Dodger »
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Jmo

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #957 on: July 25, 2013, 11:51:14 AM »
Yep, good call Lodger. Today's image as at 24072013 (ASI graphs page)...

Steven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #958 on: July 25, 2013, 02:26:32 PM »
The ice remaining in the eastern half of Beaufort, where the difference is, seems to be almost completely MYI.

The thickness comparison map above is slightly out of date since it is from March and a lot of the MYI entered Beaufort later as shown by the attached animation of ASCAT images for April

Another factor that may play a role:  The ice drift vectors suggest a net ice movement towards the Beaufort Sea during much of June/July, especially during the first half of June (PAC-2013):
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticicespddrf.html
I would expect that this created pressure ridges and ice compaction in the Beaufort Sea.

I am not sure about the meaning of the ice thickness maps for March 2013 in the Beaufort Sea.  There were a lot of wide fractures that formed, refroze and drifted at that time.  Some geographical locations in the Beaufort Sea may have been covered alternatingly by ice and open/frozen fractures during March.  It is not a priori clear how this effects the ice thickness maps for March, like those of Kaleschke-Rickert or PIOMAS.

helorime

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #959 on: July 26, 2013, 04:35:54 AM »
The crmbled ice we are seeing has apparently been christened "decayed" ice. http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/summer-cyclone-chewing-up-canada-s-arctic-sea-ice-1.1383454
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #960 on: July 26, 2013, 05:13:48 AM »
All of us in the geriatric set understand decaying. You do not have to remind us.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #961 on: July 28, 2013, 10:04:41 AM »
One of the regions that, at the moment, gets most of my attention is the Kara Sea. That’s because I posted some days ago on the “necessity” for the stubborn ‘fast ice’ in the NE Kara and the ESAS to go first week of August.



For scale: the bar down right is 25 km.

This is one of the more interesting sights in today’s new MODIS; the Vilkitsky Strait between the Kara  and Laptev (upper side) is breaking up. On the left is Bolshewik Island, part of Severnaya Zemlya.
Under the clouds you see a big lead running all through the center of the Strait.

Breaking up is not coincidal. NCEP/NCAR shows the region on +2-+4 dC anomaly lately, while surface winds are SWest

jai mitchell

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #962 on: July 29, 2013, 04:19:52 AM »
This Hycom forecast made me queasy.  I know they overestimate ice thickness loss in the projection but this looks horrible.



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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #963 on: July 29, 2013, 09:15:07 AM »
tonight's Euro craps on the arctic.

Shows major pattern change.

Been hinting at this for day 8-9 not day 4-5.


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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #964 on: July 29, 2013, 11:48:20 AM »
Again, while numbers and graphs seem to lull us into believing this season to, at least, regress to the trend, MODIS shows something else.
Watch the stubborn "fast ice" in the Kara Sea and ESAS; it is crumbling. Watch (as the clouds permit) the Chukchi region on the road to major (>1Mkm2) losses.
And have a good look at the r03c04 tile: the Nansen Basin cooridor is getting stronger and stronger.
All positions have been taken.
And Friv shows ECMWF. Watched that one too this morning. See how the ridges pump the energy in and how one settles over Greenland (first time 2013). It's dipole, the characterizer of the first phase NH re-arrangement, and we know what that can do....

Shared Humanity

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #965 on: July 29, 2013, 03:38:08 PM »
Again, while numbers and graphs seem to lull us into believing this season to, at least, regress to the trend, MODIS shows something else.
Watch the stubborn "fast ice" in the Kara Sea and ESAS; it is crumbling. Watch (as the clouds permit) the Chukchi region on the road to major (>1Mkm2) losses.
And have a good look at the r03c04 tile: the Nansen Basin cooridor is getting stronger and stronger.
All positions have been taken.
And Friv shows ECMWF. Watched that one too this morning. See how the ridges pump the energy in and how one settles over Greenland (first time 2013). It's dipole, the characterizer of the first phase NH re-arrangement, and we know what that can do....

Looking at this dipole setting up, it seems to be concentrating the impact on the CAA. What could a persistent dipole do to the remaining thickest MYI along the coast? This ice already showed some cracking during the PAC 2013 in the Spring. Could we see a major impact in this area?

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #966 on: July 29, 2013, 03:45:34 PM »
Hi SH,
FWIW, the HYCOM thickness modelling seems to point at a blow to remaining MYI next few days. Expect more mobility, fringe ice on the Atlantic side to be pushed into warmer waters around Svalbard and Frantsa Yosefa.
On the growing discrepancy between numbers and quality indicators, I'm very, very interested in what the PIOMAS model will come up with next week.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #967 on: July 29, 2013, 07:17:01 PM »
GFS now goes major dipole.
especially after day 6-7.

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jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #968 on: July 29, 2013, 08:00:33 PM »
This Hycom forecast made me queasy.  I know they overestimate ice thickness loss in the projection but this looks horrible.

Depends.  In the peripheral areas, they may be underestimating it.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #969 on: July 29, 2013, 08:42:42 PM »
And Friv shows ECMWF. Watched that one too this morning. See how the ridges pump the energy in and how one settles over Greenland (first time 2013). It's dipole, the characterizer of the first phase NH re-arrangement, and we know what that can do....

Werther,

I've been watching for such a ridge, as I suspect that anomalous ridging over Greenland is what drives the summer pattern with it's attendant Arctic Dipole.

I've also been pondering the role of Beaufort. This year we've had a very late melt there - no ridging and no summer pattern of circulation. Then just as Beaufort finally opens up (goes rotten) we see a hint of a ridge over Greenland and may see the summer pattern appear.

Note that Beaufort is still following climatology and has only recently dropped below it.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.11.html
I need the full series of numbers for CT Area broken down into regions. :(

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #970 on: July 29, 2013, 08:46:13 PM »
Jai Mitchell,

I've noticed that and blogged about it here:
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/if-hycom-is-correct.html

Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #971 on: July 29, 2013, 09:25:29 PM »
I've also been pondering the role of Beaufort. This year we've had a very late melt there - no ridging and no summer pattern of circulation. Then just as Beaufort finally opens up (goes rotten) we see a hint of a ridge over Greenland and may see the summer pattern appear.

Interesting observation, Chris.

And what an interesting sequence of events this year. If the recent cyclone gets followed by a dipole with Sun over the Beaufort and Chukchi, we might well be seeing a third cliff.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #972 on: July 29, 2013, 10:08:32 PM »
I've just been looking at the climatological GPH trough over the Bering sea, comparing 2001 to 2006 and 2007 to 2012 gave me hope. But when I downloaded timeseries data it was apparent that 2000 to 2006 is actually anomalous, and the 2007 to 2012 behaviour more typical.

Nothing gives the wild behaviour of Greenland GPH.



And I've only vague notions of what's causing that, which seems to be the centre and cause of the summer atmospheric pattern. My fingers are crossed for the summer pattern to come on strongly in August so I've got something more to work on.

Note - GPH = geopotential height. As one goes up in height pressure falls. GPH is the height at which a certain pressure layer is found. So in the above graph, previously the 500mb pressure level was found at around 5500m height, in recent years the height at which 500mb pressure is found has climbed massively over Greenland due to a 'ridge' in the atmosphere.

PhilDPortsmouth

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #973 on: July 30, 2013, 08:44:06 PM »
I notice that USCGC Healy has entered the Bering Sea and is heading North. It will be interesting to see it's webcam compared to Uni-Bremen when/if it goes beyond Chuchi.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=NEPP

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #974 on: July 30, 2013, 09:41:47 PM »
Phil,
Folks are watching the Healy's progress on the thread "USCGC Healy: scientific mission to the Arctic" http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,436.0.html
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #975 on: July 31, 2013, 04:54:22 AM »
Tor, just when you think this thread couldn't possibly get more informative, it delivers.  :)

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #976 on: July 31, 2013, 06:41:43 AM »
When you use Jaxa overlay.

it's obvious that the Fram/Atlantic side has been the main driver to get 2013 this low.

So we will either get a 2005 or 2006 like Pacific side min.

Or we are going to see a huge plummet the next 40 days.


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PhilDPortsmouth

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #977 on: July 31, 2013, 10:19:48 AM »
Thanks Tor - I hadn't spotted it there,
Phil

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #978 on: July 31, 2013, 10:29:45 AM »
I think it's obvious whats about to happen.
So do I.  Funny how different interpretations are "obvious" to different people. :-)

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #979 on: July 31, 2013, 01:05:08 PM »
While I’m in a renewed rush to compile 500Mb and jet set-up and digitize ridges, troughs and so on, I thought to maybe use the NCEP/NCAR in a different way.
Less time consuming.
I concentrated on the supposed rise of the geopotential levels over the Arctic and the corresponding winds at 300Mb.
Let’s show some samples:

1.   Here’s last winters’ 500Mb against the climo:



As I’ve suggested earlier on the Forum, the level has risen up to some 120 m. There’s always a compensation; over ca. 45dN there are sinks (mind, relatively!)

2.   And it stands out against other years, here FI last year:



This configuration reflects the steering that gave the Kara and Barentsz more ice than expected last winter.

3.   There’s more…what to think about this 300Mb vector wind spaghetti:



It shows the anomalies in steering pattern wind directions high up. Mind, it’s anomaly…it didn’t flow from Norway to Labrador all the time!

4.   Wintertime’s last; the meridional wind anomalies:



As a proxy for all the blockings… maybe I should also show the Zonal, but this post gets so large…

And so, I wondered, does the level rise continue through spring/early summer?

5.   It does, though less explicitly:



Although it is asymmetrically dislocated, probably due to the anomalous PDO/PNA around the Gulf of Alaska.

6.   Again, it holds comparing to other years:



Even to formidable melt year ’12, though completely lopsided. The Baffin rise fails to ’12 (not to the climo see 5).

7.   Let’s serve the spaghetti:



Some wind directions look fine, but hey, it runs over 35dN, to pick one “olive” from this amazing plate.

Nothing’s wrong on the US Atlantic seaboard?
Well…

8.   Look at the Meridional wind anomaly on 300Mb:



Now, that dish really gives you the collywobbles…

I think over at the blog Jai Mitchell wrote on all anomalous cut-off lows and blocks over the US. This visualises it nicely. Even the preferred trough position over Greenland. And…And…

For what its worth, I’ll answer my own questions from the “second storm”-thread on the blog.

This is all highly anomalous (worryingly, alarmingly, whatever…)

Artful Dodger

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #980 on: July 31, 2013, 03:48:36 PM »
The last two satellite strips* from GCOM-W1/AMSR2 show that almost the entire Beaufort sea is now at ~50% or less Sea ice concentration (SIC):

* Note: Level 2 data spanning two orbits, 2013-07-30 20:45 to 23:14

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Burgersub95

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #981 on: July 31, 2013, 05:51:11 PM »
I've been lurking here for a while, but thought I'd share some thoughts about the coming weeks.

The next few days are looking somewhat slow in terms of melt. Model guidance suggests that the present low pressure system will move over into the Siberian side of the CAB, while remaining relatively weak.


This will keep temps low near laptev and the eastern CAB and help facilitate wind driven divergence in these regions as per HYCOM. I would not be surprised if extent actually increases in these regions for a period of time. Also note that around this time in previous years, the Greenland Sea faced large declines that cannot be replicated due to already low extent





On the other side of the Arctic, however, models are predicting an intrusion of warm air from western Canada into the CAA and Beaufort, though their is disagreement as to how exactly this plays out.



If it comes to fruition, the wispy ice near the Western Beaufort/Eastern Chukchi will certainly face melt out, as will the relatively weak ice in the southern archipelago. However, given the wind pattern, thick MYI will continue its intrusion into the Eastern Beaufort and Parry Channel. This ice is near 100% concentration and will probably not disappear anytime soon.



Overall, given the pattern, I'd say that aside from certain areas of the Beaufort and Chukchi, extent will not drop significantly over at least the next 5-7 days.

Any thoughts/criticism is welcome


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #982 on: July 31, 2013, 07:00:15 PM »
@ChrisReynolds

Thank you for reposting that GPH graph.  This is what a prominent meteorologist is saying about this generally observed situation.  I am still waiting for his response on the cut-off low (jet stream collapse) event this summer.  He said he was going to blog on it 2 weeks ago.

guess he has been busy:

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/06/one-meteorologistss-come-jesus-moment-climate-change

One Meteorologist's Come-to-Jesus Moment on Climate Change

As an overworked forecaster in 2005, Ostro was noticing much more than the dizzying number of storms. It was the overarching atmospheric patterns conducive to storm formation that really caught his attention—and that led him to conclude that "something ain't right with the weather."

More specifically, Ostro began noticing a pattern of what's called increasing atmospheric thickness. In other words, the vertical distance between the Earth's surface and various higher levels of the atmosphere (identified by their atmospheric pressure) was growing. To explain this, Ostro uses the helpful analogy of baking a loaf of bread. "You put dough in the oven, it rises," he says. "Same thing in the atmosphere." With increasing heat, the atmospheric ridges of high pressure (regions in which air is falling, rather than rising) were higher, taller, on average. "The frequency of these really strong ridges of high pressure aloft, these anomalous high pressures aloft are increasing," Ostro explains—with profound consequences.


This is his decade-long study on the "Ostro Hypothesis" that 500mb geopotential heights would increase as the primary indicator of global warming.

It is sequential, more recent data comes last.  warning VERY LARGE DOCUMENT

http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/blog/StuOstro_GWweather_latestupdate.pdf
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #983 on: July 31, 2013, 08:39:26 PM »
Jai,

I've got an older copy of Ostro's Steamboat PDF. To save me downloading (do I remember correctly it's about 47Mb?) - is there an update date in your copy? First or second page.

Ostro's been looking at something slightly different. With the warming of the Arctic the atmosphere has been getting thicker and has been giving rise to stationary cut off lows associated with severe weather - often floods IIRC. What I'm nuts about is a specific pattern of circulation that arose in 2007 centred on Greenland with a 'halo' of low pressures induced by the anomalous Greenland high at about 3000km distant. This has given the UK cool wet summers since 2007. Our heatwave in June 2013 broke that pattern, giving the warmest spell since 2006.

In identifying this pattern I was aware of Ostro's work so took care to be sure this was not an outcome of the general warming causing the effect observed by Ostro.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2011/09/summer-daze.html
As you'll see from that post, I've been going on about this for almost two years now!

Stu was going to publish a paper on this last time I spoke to him (on some forum), now it occurs to me that must be three years ago - time flies. I don't think he's published yet, but I do think he's onto something important.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #984 on: July 31, 2013, 08:55:41 PM »
Burgersub,

Welcome to the forum.

I've got no criticism. I've recently blogged about the HYCOM forecast and the impact of the recent storm, suggesting that if correct the HYCOM model could mean we were in for a downward slide in anomalies similar to the slide 2012 had after the August 2012 storm. It's still early days for that, if correct HYCOM does show a significant thinning, although the last two days that's abated not carried on. Cryosphere Today Area (CT Area) has shown a downward slope in anomalies, but over the last three days all that loss has been gained by much lower than average behaviour. That said HYCOM is worse than for the other available years at the same time, although it did seem to understate the impact of the August storm last year.

I may be telling you something you already know - It's worth following the 500mb GPH ridges and troughs. The ridge directing that warm air into the north of Canada persists and expands over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by Thur 8 Aug (GFS). The general pattern of ridges and troughs seems to be quite stable for the week to come.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #985 on: August 01, 2013, 02:44:10 AM »
it's rather simple to me.







The Pacific side will have to have a remarkable amount of ice left for this season to be like 2009 or 2010.

We will see.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #986 on: August 01, 2013, 04:21:56 AM »
The Beaufort is about to get torched. 

Models say mid to upper 80s or around 30C high temps to the NW Canada/NE Alaska shore with Southerly Surface flow for days on end by the evening of day 2.

Hmmmmm
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Espen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #987 on: August 01, 2013, 08:45:39 AM »
New record max. temperature set in Greenland:

From DMI (in Danish):

http://www.dmi.dk/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder-2013/groenland-saetter-temperaturrekord/
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wanderer

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #988 on: August 01, 2013, 11:27:30 AM »
Who thinks we will still see a New Record?
One week ago it seemed that 2013 could catch 2012, but now?
Anyway, I think we will see another cliff soon.

Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #989 on: August 01, 2013, 11:49:56 AM »
I think we have about zero chance for a new record. 

I have thought that all summer.  I am still going with 4.4 mil on jaxa and 4.6 mil NSIDC min monthly because of the huge Atlantic side reductions and the impending thin ice melt out on the Pacific side.

I do think we will see about a week or so where we do drop way above the normal August average which will help bump us down to 2011 numbers.

The new record numbers I don't know.  We need to average century breaks everyday from here on out.  Which is would be unreal.  you know like not realistic. 

I just don't like that if this was reversed where Watt's et all like last year couldn't see the writing on the wall Watts and friends were totally humiliated and discredited. 


But we have a guy on the blog still predicting an ice free arctic based on things that are on a fantasy in his head at this point.  I am sorry if that is rude but the opposite of his prediction would be like a 7-8 mil min. 


How many here would laugh and totally Bleep on that?  Exactly.  It worries me how much the "reality" in front of us has been ignored and "our" beliefs were supplemented onto our science.

I am not saying it can not happen I am saying there is overwhelming evidence and has been for a while now that it most most most likely will not happen.  Not a melt out but even a new record.

 


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Siffy

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #990 on: August 01, 2013, 11:58:08 AM »
What are the chances we end up with no new record in terms of surface area but that the volume minimum is worse this year than last?

I've actually not seen any recent figures for current volume vs the previous year

Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #991 on: August 01, 2013, 12:06:13 PM »
What are the chances we end up with no new record in terms of surface area but that the volume minimum is worse this year than last?

I've actually not seen any recent figures for current volume vs the previous year

Extremely unlikely.

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a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

pikaia

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #992 on: August 01, 2013, 12:15:16 PM »
What are the chances we end up with no new record in terms of surface area but that the volume minimum is worse this year than last?

I've actually not seen any recent figures for current volume vs the previous year

On this basis, volume could still set a new record, although we will have a better idea when the July figures are released in a few days:-


Whit

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #993 on: August 01, 2013, 01:59:47 PM »
Who thinks we will still see a New Record?
One week ago it seemed that 2013 could catch 2012, but now?
Anyway, I think we will see another cliff soon.
I don't think we'll see a new record. But according to TOPAZ4 ice thickness, the set up for a record was there, if that model can be trusted. The weather just saved the ice this time. As long as the volume sticks to it's trend we will have an ice free state in a few years. The differences in thickness in TOPAZ4 2012 and 2013 are quite staggering.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2013, 03:08:03 PM by Whit »
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #994 on: August 01, 2013, 02:48:34 PM »
What are the chances we end up with no new record in terms of surface area but that the volume minimum is worse this year than last?

I've actually not seen any recent figures for current volume vs the previous year

Volume and surface area are moving in the same ratio as last year, so if one is a record and the other isn't, they'll both be pretty close to 2012. At the moment, I reckon they'll probably be between 2011 and 2012. I wouldn't say it was impossible, but I'd want long odds to bet that way.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #995 on: August 01, 2013, 04:54:44 PM »
Espen @ #987; here it is from Weather Underground:

"BREAKING NEWS: Greenland has just measured its hottest temperature on record July 30th with a reading of 25.9°C (78.6°F) at Maniitoq Mittarfia during a foehn event. The previous Greenland record was 25.5°C (77.9°F) at Kangerlussuaq on July 27, 1990.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian"
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helorime

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #996 on: August 01, 2013, 07:58:14 PM »
Looks like the ice sheet is completely breaking away from the east coast of Greenland all the way to the top between yesterday and today.  Has this detached before? www.flickr.com/photos/26343744@N00/9417824546/  Yesterday on the left, today on the right
« Last Edit: August 01, 2013, 08:14:55 PM by helorime »
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DaddyBFree

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #997 on: August 01, 2013, 08:14:42 PM »
Looks like the ice sheet is completely breaking away from the east coast of Greenland all the wat to the top between yesterday and today.  Has this detached before? www.flickr.com/photos/26343744@N00/9417824546/Yesterday on the left, today on the right
Hi Heather,
Sure, similar detachments have happened; here's a link from DMI, Nord July from last year http://screencast.com/t/pX6mBz6g
Brian

helorime

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #998 on: August 01, 2013, 08:20:35 PM »
Thank you.  I have only figured out how to find some archived images.  So this happened earlier last year. Looked like a dramatic 1-day change to me.  It would been interesting to see it break and move off from the Greenland coast in person.
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TerryM

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #999 on: August 01, 2013, 08:32:17 PM »
Helorime
Try Arctic.io's split zoom feature & set the left screen to the date you wish


Terry