Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?  (Read 119918 times)

Vergent

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 566
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #50 on: March 15, 2013, 10:18:23 PM »
I wonder, wether the extent (and probably also area and volume) measurements are correct these days...


Can anyone tell me, if the measurements DO subtract those little (or not so little) cracks?

The cracks are counted as ice because they are iced over. The maps you linked to have temperature scales. the cracks are in the -10 to -20C range. Sea water freezes at -2C



This map shows that the cracks are 10-30cm thick. The water is at its freezing point and the air is way below it so the cracks freeze over almost instantly. Open water would be obscured by a black(warm) cloud of "ice smoke"(fog).

Verg

werther

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 706
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #51 on: March 16, 2013, 01:14:03 AM »
Following the post above, in which I admitted I found it very hard to get a notion of what this winters’ patterns are cooking up for the next melting season, I’ve been rambling through NCEP/NCAR comparing the general winter 500 Mb ‘steering pattern’.



I used the period 15 September to 13 March (available for this season too) as perimeters.
Over the period ’95 to ’13 I get the strong impression that the Northern Hemisphere winter is gradually showing larger areas of anomaly, becoming mainly positive.
What could it mean? I see this as an indication that the pressure gradient between the tropics and the Pole is weakening. This seems to fit the mechanism eloquently advertised by FI Dr. Francis.



This winter especially featured a very large positive anomaly. IOW, the thickness of the lower troposphere was actually larger than usual (albeit just 50-100 m). The area covered a large banana-shaped stretch all the way from the Bering, over the Laptev and Greenland into Labrador, about 13 Mkm2. It may have influenced the strength of the zonal winds, the steering, over the sub-boreal zone. In that sense, it did contribute to all confusing messy weather since last September.

Meirion

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #52 on: March 16, 2013, 03:19:39 PM »
VERGENT - love the St Petersburg Institute ice map - my question is how do you get the up-to-date chart because when I go to their site and hit "last one" I get old maps.

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1792
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #53 on: March 16, 2013, 03:35:21 PM »
Meirion, does this do it?

http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1&mod=0&yy=2013

Neven graph page still links 2011 instead of 2013. But I can select 2013 from year drop down box in top left corner. So I am not sure where you see the "last one" link.

Vergent

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 566
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #54 on: March 17, 2013, 01:58:03 AM »
VERGENT - love the St Petersburg Institute ice map - my question is how do you get the up-to-date chart because when I go to their site and hit "last one" I get old maps.

In the top left there are boxes for year and date: Select 2013 you will get the latest map.

http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1&mod=0&yy=2013

Neven's link is out of date, this one will take you to the latest 2013 map

Artful Dodger

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 439
  • The era of procrastination is coming to a close.
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #55 on: March 17, 2013, 03:12:09 AM »
Discovery News picks up the story, credits A-Team/ASI blog.

Que the mongrel horde:

Cheers!
Lodger

Meirion

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #56 on: March 17, 2013, 06:15:50 PM »
Ta Crandles and Vergent. That does the trick

supaluminal

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 2
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #57 on: March 18, 2013, 12:29:22 PM »
I'm trying to think how I would (naively) construct a volume model such as PIOMAS, to try and get a handle on how it might deal with such cracking. This is pretending that we haven't seen a cracking event like this before, so it's more like the "normal" arctic:

If a crack opened up, the area in that crack might count as 0 m of thickness, but given that most cracks probably wouldn't have opened up like this previously, the assumption might very well be that it is the same (or similar) thickness to the ice surrounding it. This would invariably have the effect of reporting an anomalously high volume. Even if the effect wasn't absolute, and cracks were assumed to have thinner ice, it would still report a higher volume than was accurate.

I don't know how PIOMAS actually accounts for such an event, but if the cracking occurs only on a small scale, then the effect wouldn't be significant, and the way it is modeled wouldn't be so important. But with this event being so widespread, what are the chances that PIOMAS is counting a great deal of the iced over cracks as the same or similar thicknesses to the ice surrounding it. If that is the case, then that calls into question the rebound in PIOMAS values for the first 2 months of the year.

I guess we'll know once that weak ice disappears under the impact of the sun...

ChrisReynolds

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #58 on: March 18, 2013, 06:34:11 PM »
Supaluminal,

There is no way to naively model sea ice, it is too complex. I'm in the process of re-reading the three papers that outline the maths behind PIOMAS, if you want I can give you refs and links.

Vergent

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 566
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #59 on: March 18, 2013, 07:05:05 PM »
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/piomas-thickness-maps/

They have not yet published PIOMAS thickness maps for Jan. and Feb. It will be interesting to see how it handles the cracks.

Carex

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 38
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #60 on: March 18, 2013, 11:50:36 PM »
We now have cracks throughout the Arctic Basin, the Beaufort looks like confetti, the Chukchi has been pumping ice in and out of the Bering Straight (we know that's mobile), the Kara looks like a dropped egg, there are vast areas of open water (or very young ice) in the lee of Wrangle Island in the East Siberian Sea.  But what effect will it have?  That depends on the melt season's weather.  A calm season will see little effect but any storms, especially large storms will be able to pound the ice into nothing or push it into warmer water.  It's fate isn't sealed but it is much more vulnerable.

Vergent

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 566
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #61 on: March 19, 2013, 01:43:58 AM »


The cracking has progressed clear to the north coast of Greenland. It has become jagged in the thick old MYI.

Nightvid Cole

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 421
    • View Profile
Gargantuan crack to come next week?
« Reply #62 on: March 19, 2013, 03:37:22 AM »
According to http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2013031718_2013032500_035_arcticicespddrf.001.gif   , there will be a line of extreme ice divergence through the central Arctic (passing approximately though the North Pole), parallel to the CAA coast, presumably this will create a crack as the ice has insufficient tensile strength to withstand it.

Could this be the greatest crack of them all?

Apocalypse4Real

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #63 on: March 19, 2013, 04:31:46 AM »
Vergent's visual did not come through, but here is the 0102 GMT imagery for Ellesmere and the entire CAB.

I think that we will see the Lincoln Sea fracture this week.


jdallen

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2442
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #64 on: March 19, 2013, 05:17:11 AM »
Greetings all;
I'm a lurker who's been following events here for several weeks, but has been following environmental issues since the first earth day.  I've determined its time to stop lurking.

I am agog at the scale of what's happening right now along the CAA.  I think as "A-Team" mentioned, as regards to the health of arctic ice, nothing positive can come from this.

The scales of energy at play in this, are almost incomprehensible; I was thinking earlier, as we saw the first events in the Beaufort, that part of what was in play was what amounted to a massive kinetic "hammer" coming down on the apex of the MYI left over from 2012.  I still think, as well as currents and wind, pure momentum may have a part to play in what we are seeing here.

I say that, in what paltry scientific education I have (former Geologist turned systems analyst here), I see significant corollaries between what happens in crystalline structures to cleavage when pressure is applied in two dimensions along a plane, and how the fracture zones are developing across the arctic.

We shall see how this plays out, with the coming sun.
This space for Rent.

ChrisReynolds

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
Re: Gargantuan crack to come next week?
« Reply #65 on: March 19, 2013, 07:57:41 AM »
This is a coastal flaw lead, they're not uncommon, but this one does seem to be uncommonly extensive.

If you check out what has happened in Beaufort instead of a series of parallel arc fractures the ice has pulled away from Banks Island opening up a polynia that has covered with new thin ice. Something similar may happen in reality, as compared with the model. We may not see a single fracture, rather more fracturing inside the pack.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 4144
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #66 on: March 19, 2013, 11:05:31 AM »
Nightvid Cole, I merged your thread with this one because it's no use having two threads about the same event. Somehow your OP got lost during the operation, and only Chris Reynolds' reply got posted (above this comment). I'm really sorry about that! I merged threads once before and everything seemed to work fine.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2013, 12:04:55 PM by Neven »
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

supaluminal

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 2
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #67 on: March 19, 2013, 11:52:21 AM »
Supaluminal,

There is no way to naively model sea ice, it is too complex. I'm in the process of re-reading the three papers that outline the maths behind PIOMAS, if you want I can give you refs and links.

I probably used too strong a word in naive, I guess i was more thinking about a model that was based on the way the ice has been for the last couple of decades, which I would expect PIOMAS to be, and therefore, a model that may have trouble with unexpected occurrences.

As for the papers that cover the maths behind the model, hell yes, count me in. I've been breaking things apart to find out how they work since I was a kid, I don't see why I should stop now.

Gray-Wolf

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 603
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #68 on: March 19, 2013, 04:15:21 PM »
I think the past couple of melt seasons have highlighted that we can no longer view the Arctic's behaviour by looking at past analogues? When synoptics that used to protect ice now actively destroy it things have become well out of kilter?

The same must be true of the winter Arctic with so little ice left in the basin to fend off tide and synoptics. This current event surely shows us that we should 'expect the unexpected' these days?

 Sure we saw fragmentation events in the past (I used to wait for the 'spring tides' to highlight how fragile sections of the basin's ice was becoming!) but never on this scale or duration?

With Spring now upon us we shall all have a front row seat in seeing just how such disruption aids , or hinders?, melt.

Last year we saw a lot of 'blue ice' early on in spring as the snow cover melted and the melt-waters flooded the flat surface of the FY ice. This season that water may be channeled into the ocean rather than standing around the ice surface lowering ice albedo?

Will the re opening of the leads lead to swells that mechanically smash the larger floes down in size and so hasten their melt?

How early do we expect to see the majority melt to be over by? Late July? If so what chance the remainder ice with open water mixing out any 'melt horizon' and bringing warmer, saltier waters to the surface? Would an earlier melt out lead to more L.P. systems running around the basin (mixing out the river runoff in the 'Beaufort lens'?)

I don't know how to call it, how can I? we have never seen the likes of this before.
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

ChrisReynolds

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #69 on: March 19, 2013, 06:53:51 PM »
Supaluminal,

The main paper on which the PIOMAS model is based is:

Zhang et al, 2003, "Modeling Global Sea Ice with a Thickness and Enthalpy Distribution Model in
Generalized Curvilinear Coordinates"
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/POIM.pdf

This is in turn based on:

Hibler, 1980, "Modelling a Variable Thickness Ice Cover."
This should be readily locatable via AMS journals, top hit in Google with the above paper title.
This paper gives a lot more detail about the thermodynamics of the model than the PIOMAS paper above.

Finally there is Zhang & Rothrock, 2001, "A Thickness and Enthalpy Distribution Sea-Ice Model"
<a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031%3C2986%3AATAEDS%3E2.0.CO%3B2">PDF</a>
This paper gives some more detail about issues like ridging of ice, and the treatment in the model.

At present I'm trying to get a grasp of the cause of the more aggressive spring melt post 2010. I suspect it's in the transfer from old to young ice throughout the pack. I'm just checking again to see if these three papers might explain why (mechanistically) thinner ice might melt more rapidly in PIOMAS - if I can't get to the bottom of it I'll email Dr Zhang.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 4144
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #70 on: March 19, 2013, 08:55:14 PM »
Hello, Mr Blue!



The AO Index agrees:

Il faut cultiver notre jardin

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2311
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #71 on: March 19, 2013, 09:18:50 PM »
The Fram express is now a bullet train?

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3078
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #72 on: March 19, 2013, 09:35:14 PM »
The Sea Ice Grinder is entering into Lincoln Sea in direction of Cape Sheridan, I don't believe the "solid" Sea Ice in the area will survive much longer, the question now will this action enter Robeson Channel and the rest of Nares Strait too?

NB: Please use the 250 meter image enlargement below!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2013078.terra 
« Last Edit: March 19, 2013, 09:48:08 PM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #73 on: March 19, 2013, 09:42:32 PM »
A rough interpolation/extrapolation of the daily AO index tells me March would average at about -4.3. That's ridiculous and a record shatterer by about an entire point. Slightly off topic, but with the NAO phase also going deeper into the negative, I guess it's going to be another visit from Old Man Winter for much of the Northern Hemisphere? The AO index is about to swing violently positive in the next couple weeks though... So... We should expect to seem some pretty rapid changes to the NH climate patterns soon, I presume? Either way, a traumatic week is ahead for the Arctic, it sounds.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
« Last Edit: March 20, 2013, 01:40:31 AM by Deep Octopus »

werther

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 706
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #74 on: March 19, 2013, 09:48:44 PM »
In an attempt to get to grips with this winters’ character, I started summarizing/analysing the NCEP/NCAR decadal means for the NH I have collected since September.
Out of SLP, 1000Mb temp ea. I chose the 500Mb samples, assuming they were most significant for the general pattern. With that, I transferred some features to CAD, scaling them to my Polar basic layer.
I marked the axes of the Rossby wave ridges and troughs. I turned the areas with positive and negative height anomaly into measurable polygons.
The result looks like this:

The dotted areas present positive height anomaly during 16 decades. Mind, I didn’t include areas without relevance for the Boreal/Arctic zone (+45dN).

This is the counterpart; negative height anomaly of the 500Mb pressure boundary.
What does this illustrate? I feel some embarrassment to think I just showed the total anomaly presented by NCEP/NCAR to be correct. A lot of work, just to find data reliable.
But, in the process, I’ve learned some interesting facts.
(1)   There was never a negative anomaly over Greenland and Davis Strait.
(2)   Negative anomalies occurred most often near Mongolia, the Bay of Biscay and over the  Keewatin region (Canadese Nunavut)
(3)   The ‘crack-site’ Beaufort Sea was usually on the leeward side of the positive anomaly; mean winds had a strong SE component, enhanced by the Keewatin negative anomalies
(4)   It looks like the mean didn’t feature a classic pattern for a ‘Beaufort Gyre’ under cold lower tropospheric high pressure and a persistent vortex high up
(5)   In line with (4), steering patterns were much more elongated (compared to a climatic vortex winter), catching up out of the Pacific and Atlantic with a strong anticyclonic tendency
(6)   The Kara-Barentsz Seas, consequentially, endured a tendency for NE winds, cooling theregion
(7)   Indeed, Greenland was the main pivot in the circulation

This ‘Medusa head’ represents the decadal position of the axes of 72 ridges and 91 troughs between 1 October and 10 March.
In the chaos, I marked three patterns that stand out. It looks like ridges stall preferredly over the Eastern Pacific as well as the Eastern Atlantic. Troughs had an exclusive card for the Hudson/Great Plains region, contributing to the Keewatin negative 500 Mb height anomaly. To lesser extent, that counted for the East Asian region too (cold Manchuria…).

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 4144
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #75 on: March 19, 2013, 10:01:04 PM »
I don't know how to interpret that, but it looks fantastic, Werther!
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

werther

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 706
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #76 on: March 19, 2013, 10:43:47 PM »
Well Neven,

My wife isn't a politician like you, she thinks the pics look bad...

But generally, the quest gives me an affirmation that patterns did change, and not just to the extent that this is a 'normal' AO-negative winter.
Of course, in the same procedure one should analyse precursing years.
But on advance, I would suggest a lot more heat was transported/collected over the Arctic than in earlier winters.
Second, DO may very well be right in his post above; the arrival of spring could result in a rapid pattern change. The NOAA AO forecast seems to point in that direction...

Third, SIA/SIE, even PIOMAS volume might be delusive. All have picked up through side effects of the weird winter pattern. But the main effect will still be that structural weakness of the pack and 'inefficient' spatial spread of the regrowth show in an amazing decline early this melt season.

PhilGChapman

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 12
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #77 on: March 20, 2013, 01:32:51 AM »
This from @NASA_ICE :
First science flight of #IceBridge's 2013 Arctic campaign scheduled for tomorrow. Possible target: sea ice north of Greenland.

Apocalypse4Real

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #78 on: March 20, 2013, 01:46:39 AM »
Phil,

Nice find. It would be interesting to hear their findings after the last two day's events.

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3306
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #79 on: March 20, 2013, 10:17:59 AM »
Discovery News picks up the story, credits A-Team/ASI blog.

Discovery have however seen it fit to delete my helpful comment, which is nonetheless still visible where they auto-posted it to my Facebook page.

http://www.facebook.com/SoulSurfer7

Over here on this this side of the pond the Great British Press have been playing the same game:

http://econnexus.org/the-strange-tale-of-the-mail-and-the-snow-dragon/

Meanwhile "The Mirror" is now cracking in the general direction of Nord:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Vergent

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 566
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #80 on: March 20, 2013, 03:37:06 PM »




The ice cap just said goodbye to the CA and Greenland. What do we call this? the North by northwest Passage?

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1056
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #81 on: March 20, 2013, 04:48:39 PM »
The Fram express is now a bullet train?

I think it's rather that Svalbard is going to be really cool for a while.  (btw: cool in Swedish is sval and bard is just what it is in englinsh so their name could be translated as 'poet of cold' or ' (physically) cold singer').
« Last Edit: March 20, 2013, 04:59:17 PM by Pmt111500 »
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3078
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #82 on: March 20, 2013, 08:56:59 PM »
From Arctic Sea Ice Blog:



Lincoln Sea / Station Nord Greenland:

With almost only half of the remaining "solid" sea ice left in Lincoln Sea, and a small part above Station Nord and this part is gone in a few days, the whole coast line from Banks Island (Canada) to Flade Isblink (Greenland), is free of solid sea ice, I am convinced we can call this a historic moment, and it is only March 20.

Joekelbugt and South;

The amount of solid sea ice is very low too, even compared to recent years, and the sea ice is showing signs of disintegration from above Île de France to Shannon Island in the south.
Have a ice day!

ritter

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 489
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #83 on: March 20, 2013, 09:52:46 PM »
.....the whole coast line from Banks Island (Canada) to Flade Isblink (Greenland), is free of solid sea ice, I am convinced we can call this a historic moment, and it is only March 20.
Awesome! In the bad way.  :o

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3078
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #84 on: March 21, 2013, 02:24:19 PM »
Re posted from Arctic Sea Ice Blog:

Station North Greenland and Lincoln Sea,

Heavy sea ice turbulence and cracking is seen north of Station North, this can be watched from the Modis Swath material of today. Further down the North Eastern coast of Greenland, of Joekelbugt and a bit north the fast/solid sea ice is seen disintegrating.

Another big fracture is seen across the remaining (from yesterday) solid Sea Ice in Lincoln Sea.
 
Have a ice day!

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #85 on: March 21, 2013, 02:38:54 PM »
CT ice area in the Baffin Bay region is taking a huge hit from the recent "heatwave" over Greenland/Nunavut, just below 900,000 km^2 in actual area, and nearly 300,000 km^2 below average. It was in early May last year when this region previously melted to an area size this low. Spring melt already well underway there, with the sun already beginning to overstay its welcome.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.4.html


Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3306
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #86 on: March 21, 2013, 08:18:07 PM »
Reposted from the ASIB, with the latest addendum:

http://econnexus.org/a-new-world-view-from-nasa/

The "Fragmentation" has now passed Nord, and is heading down the east coast of Greenland
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3078
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #87 on: March 21, 2013, 08:39:51 PM »
It is already done above.
Have a ice day!

Apocalypse4Real

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #88 on: March 22, 2013, 01:46:24 PM »
Anyone picking up more recent AVHRR imagery from

ftp://cisclient.cis.ec.gc.ca/HRPT-Resolute--ArcticComposite/

or the other associated ftp sites? It seems the buffer filled to 61 images and they are not reclearing it since 032113 1815.

It is a real shame since that has been the highest resolution imagey I have found to follow and at times - post!


Vergent

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 566
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #89 on: March 22, 2013, 01:55:07 PM »
The latest I could get.

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3306
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #90 on: March 22, 2013, 02:29:33 PM »
Anyone picking up more recent AVHRR imagery from

ftp://cisclient.cis.ec.gc.ca/HRPT-Resolute--ArcticComposite/

or the other associated ftp sites?

In brief, No! I have the very same problem. Luckily I stumbled upon NASA Worldview a couple of days ago, which is remarkably handy for daily "visible" images:

http://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1056
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #91 on: March 22, 2013, 03:05:40 PM »
this not exactly arctic, but there's fragmentation going on elsewhere too, i'd like to suggest this is produced by some internal dynamics of large-enough ice fields once the ice is thin enough and spring starts. Lake Ladoga yesterday:
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Apocalypse4Real

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #92 on: March 23, 2013, 12:17:04 AM »
E Canada AVHRR is back online

Ice Cool Kim

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 206
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #93 on: March 24, 2013, 08:17:36 PM »
Octopus: "... with the sun already beginning to overstay its welcome"

I suspect if you lived up there you may view things differently after six months of freezing you nuts of.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 4144
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #94 on: March 24, 2013, 08:23:00 PM »
Octopus: "... with the sun already beginning to overstay its welcome"

I suspect if you lived up there you may view things differently after six months of freezing you nuts of.

Except that his remark is in relation to sea ice in Baffin Bay. And I don't think that the Inuit are happy when sea ice starts melting earlier and earlier. Otherwise they'd already be living on the Bahamas.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

ChrisReynolds

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #95 on: March 24, 2013, 11:04:03 PM »
Very useful photos of sea ice from Christy's Greenland Blog.
http://hansen-greenland-2013.blogspot.co.uk/

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #96 on: March 25, 2013, 03:55:26 PM »
Octopus: "... with the sun already beginning to overstay its welcome"

I suspect if you lived up there you may view things differently after six months of freezing you nuts of.

Except that his remark is in relation to sea ice in Baffin Bay. And I don't think that the Inuit are happy when sea ice starts melting earlier and earlier. Otherwise they'd already be living on the Bahamas.

Thank you, Neven, that was precisely my point.

lanevn

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 87
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #97 on: March 26, 2013, 04:50:36 PM »
But why is all this fracture happens if the sea ice have same thickness as in recent years? Something must be wrong - ice thickness measures or this amount of fracture is not so unusual.

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1792
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #98 on: March 26, 2013, 05:00:58 PM »
Just because the volume and area are very similar resulting in similar average thickness calculation doesn't mean the distribution of thicknesses are the same. Indeed we can see differences:

eg


Beaufort, East Siberian don't have as much thick/MYI ice.

(Ascat higher resolution (2.5x) radar for 2010-13. Thanks to A-team.)

lanevn

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 87
    • View Profile
Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #99 on: March 26, 2013, 08:08:01 PM »
Hm, in Beaufort really were some MYI in 2012, but along Siberia even thinner ice than now if believe to model http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict/nowcast/ict2012030118_2012030200_035_arcticict.001.gif. But in your foto 2013 Siberia looks really darker. So thick model have error? Maybe they just don't want to be alarmists and adding some value to ice ).