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Author Topic: But, but, but, China....  (Read 90937 times)

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #350 on: March 20, 2017, 06:07:21 PM »
China reducing their coal huh???

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/03/china-kickstarting-new-coal-boom-in.html?m=1


China kickstarting new coal boom in Pakistan



(Climate Home) – Chinese investments are speeding up new coal developments in the Thar region of Pakistan, despite local water scarcity and pollution and an abundance of solar energy potential.

The CEO of Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECM), Shamsuddin Ahmad Shaikh, said on Thursday that with government and investor support – particularly from China – its coal developments in Thar are running quicker than expected.

SECM is developing a 1,320MW coal power plant in Thar which is expected to be completed by June 2019.

Also under development is the Sino-Sindh Resources Limited (SSRL)’s open pit mine, which is expected to produce 6.5m metric tonnes a year. It will reach commercial operation as early as 2018. Coal from this pit will power a 1,320MW plant, expected to be operational by 2019.

Addressing a seminar in Karachi, Shaikh said that SECM can “considerably” reduce electricity costs to 6¢ per unit once its Thar coal production reaches a capacity of 4,000MW.

Thar’s provincial chief minister Syed Murad Ali Shah, said the coal projects will “change the face” of Pakistan’s biggest city Karachi and Sindh, the province in which Thar is located. […]


Will moving the source of both CO2 & particulate matter closer to the equator have a measurable effect on weather & or climate?


Terry

Buddy

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #351 on: March 23, 2017, 04:24:18 PM »
Video of an interview with someone from Rocky Mountain Institute on China change in energy policy towards renewables.

1)  China has decreased its coal consumption for the third year in a row

2)  Solar has been doubling its installations of solar annually

Good video. .....

FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #352 on: March 26, 2017, 03:25:25 PM »
Jing-Jin-Ji: China Planning Megalopolis the Size of New England
... While it is supposed to become a motor for innovation and growth within China, some experts think Jing-Ji-Ji could also become a model of sustainable growth for the rest of the country and the world.

"All eyes are on the Jing-Jin-Ji region as a testing ground for innovative solutions," according to an October 2015 report by the Paulson Institute, a think-tank founded by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Jr.

Hebei, China's most industrialized and polluted province and the main source of smog in Beijing, also has strong winds and higher than average sunlight. This could translate into wind and solar power and ease its transition to low-carbon manufacturing. ...
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/jing-jin-ji-china-planning-megalopolis-size-new-england-n734736
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #353 on: April 04, 2017, 06:17:08 PM »
The really big news in China is its rapid reductions in energy use per unit of GDP, averaging 5% for the past 3 years. Combined with reductions averaging 3.8% for the previous 2 years, that's about a 25% reduction in energy intensity in 5 years. Overshooting its own 5 year plan targets.

With growth a bit higher than 5% last year, actual energy consumption only went up 1.4% - allowing the addition of renewables (and nuclear) to produce a fall in carbon emissions.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/03/14/china-coal-consumption-declines-despite-increasing-energy-consumption/

With the current renewables support programs reducing at the end of 2019, there will probably be a continued high level of renewable implementations between now and then. The government's GDP growth target is 6.5-7% (a rate that doubles the size of the economy every 10 years), so if the rate of reduction in energy intensity is maintained, then China could continue to slightly reduce its carbon emissions year over year.

If coal consumption continues to fall at a few per cent per annum, there would be a significant reduction in sulphur emissions. This could be exacerbated by extra use of sulphur scrubbers. The short-term effect, given that the sulphur particles are removed from the atmosphere very quickly (unlike the carbon emissions), could be a local warming effect. That could have more than regional consequences if it changes circulation patterns.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2017, 06:30:31 PM by rboyd »

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #354 on: April 11, 2017, 01:55:55 PM »
One of my dinner guests last night is from China. She'd just returned from a trip back home after two years in Canada. She flew into Shanghai & was pleasantly surprised when her mother met her at the airport. Seems her parents now live only an hour and a half from Shanghai by rail, although it's still a 500 K distance.
The new Semi-High Speed line, not one of the very fast maglev super trains, but still, station to station in 1.5 hours, allows her parents to go for lunch in Shanghai, then return in plenty of time for dinner.
What surprised her was that her parents hadn't thought to mentioned the new service. An indication of how rapidly things are changing in some parts of the world.


Terry

Gray-Wolf

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #355 on: April 11, 2017, 02:57:35 PM »
If we end up second warmest year to the el nino spiked 2016 record year then a lot of that warmth will be from the brightening that reduced coal use, combined with the roll out of clean air technologies, is now driving. The warming we missed out on through the late nineties and noughties is now about to rush in as the energy at the top of the atmosphere is able to make its way to the ground.

So, whilst celebrating the lead China is taking in both renewables and clean air technologies we have to accept that China had suppressed warming over its 'dirty Years'  will now the lost warming will make itself known as the atmosphere clears over the areas worst impacted.
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #356 on: April 11, 2017, 07:32:28 PM »
That's a worry that I have had for a long time, that we have been underestimating the negative albedo effect of those sulphur particles from the massive expansion of Chinese coal use post 2000.

Given the very fast washing out of those particles from the atmosphere, and the long life of CO2, even just a stabilization of coal use would have increased the rate of local warming. With aggressive steps to solve the air pollution crisis a lot of pent-up warming potential may now be released. With the very rapid drive for nuclear, renewables and energy efficiency we could have extra heat being added over China year over year for a decade or more.

We are walking a very fine line between kicking off positive climate feedbacks in the short-term (due to sulphate aerosol reductions and increased CH4 emissions etc.) and the longer-term effects of reduced CO2 emissions.

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #357 on: April 14, 2017, 10:17:57 PM »
China to lead in CCS (as well as in Wind, Solar and Nuclear)?

Looks like China is making a major push in CCS, following its "try everything" strategy. Becoming a world leader in all low-emissions technology (Wind, Solar, Nuclear, Hydro, CCS) while the Denier in Chief hobbles the U.S. industry.

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/january/the-potential-for-carbon-capture-and-storage-in-china.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-28/china-set-to-displace-north-america-with-carbon-capture-projects

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #358 on: April 15, 2017, 12:18:32 AM »
Too early to celebrate China's reduction in coal usage given the historical upward revisions to its coal usage.

I keep having to remind myself that China has a nasty habit of revising its coal usage statistics upwards a few years after they are published, so the current drop may be a bit of a statistical mirage. Last time they revised their statistics, it was big! Even a much smaller scale of revision would blow a hole in the current "Global CO2 emissions have plateaud" story.

"Energy-content-based coal consumption from 2000 to 2013 is up to 14% higher than previously reported, while coal production is up to 7% higher"

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=22952


rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #359 on: April 24, 2017, 02:18:51 AM »
China pulling ahead of US in clean tech, to produce a trade war in the future?

"Clean Energy Could Spark a Trade War Between the US and China" from Wired "That [$365bn] investment puts China in a prime position to lead the world in clean energy, selling its innovations to other countries looking to cut their energy bills. So if a trade war breaks out between China and the US, it may well be over clean energy."

https://www.wired.com/2017/03/us-china-clean-energy/
« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 02:34:10 AM by rboyd »

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #360 on: April 24, 2017, 02:21:50 AM »
China nuclear power capacity set to overtake the US within a decade Bloomberg

"The world’s second biggest economy will almost triple its nuclear capacity to nearly 100 gigawatts by 2026, making it the biggest market globally, analysts said in a note dated Jan. 27. The nation added about 8 gigawatts of nuclear power last year, boosting its installed capacity to about 34 million kilowatts, according to BMI."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-31/china-s-nuclear-power-fleet-seen-overtaking-u-s-within-decade

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #361 on: April 24, 2017, 02:34:43 AM »
China will complete construction of five nuclear power reactors and start construction of eight more in 2017, according to plans released by the country's National Energy Administration (NEA). Planning for a further eight reactors will also be progressed this year.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-China-sets-out-nuclear-plans-for-2017-0203174.html

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #362 on: April 24, 2017, 02:38:07 AM »
China Nuclear Push Stalled by Next-Generation Reactors

"Plans to green-light eight reactors this year in the world’s fastest-growing nuclear market, announced last week, could depend on whether it’s able to complete some of the world’s most-advanced facilities, including Westinghouse Electric Co.’s AP1000 and Areva SA’s EPR. The first such reactors may come online as early as the first half, followed by new approvals, according to Karl Liu, an analyst at BOC International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong."

"China is seeking to be the first country to bring online either an AP1000 or EPR, so-called generation III+ reactors, which have suffered costly delays in the U.S. and Europe. The world’s second-biggest economy, and largest energy consumer, is aiming to boost its nuclear power capacity and develop its own next-generation technology for export."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/china-nuclear-ambitions-seen-stalled-by-next-generation-reactors

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #363 on: April 24, 2017, 03:42:20 AM »
I've been following China's energy developments for several years.  I will be really surprised if China doesn't start dialing down its nuclear starts before 2020.

The odds of this happening really increase if labor costs continue to rise in the country.  Very cheap labor makes nuclear a lot more affordable in China than in western countries.  I checked labor costs a few days ago.  IIRC an engineer in China makes about 14% as much as an engineer in the US.  Same for laborers.

China has an aging population (one child is starting to impact).  They're already experience something of a labor shortage.  And market forces are starting to take hold in China.  Their labor rates could move up fairly quickly.

mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #364 on: April 24, 2017, 04:05:50 AM »
and so it goes

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #365 on: April 24, 2017, 04:59:24 AM »
afaik china has not changed their nuclear plans

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx

I will be really surprised if China doesn't start dialing down its nuclear starts before 2020.


rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #366 on: April 24, 2017, 05:16:13 AM »
Thanks for the info mati.

The rapid buildout of the low-carbon energy sources, including nuclear, benefits China in a number of ways. As well as reducing air pollution, carbon emissions and gaining competitive advantage in these new industries, it also helps reduce their dependence on imported fossil fuel energy supplies.
They can continue rapid growth without overwhelming the ability to import energy from others, and reduce dependence upon easily embargoed/interdicted fossil fuel supplies.

Given the increasing tensions with the US, it would make sense for China to keep driving the "all of the above" strategy as fast as they can go. That includes their impressive energy efficiency drive.

sidd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #367 on: April 24, 2017, 06:03:29 AM »
Oi. Westinghouse/Toshiba are in bankruptcy. China will not greenlight eight nukes this year.

mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #368 on: April 24, 2017, 06:13:54 AM »
Oi. Westinghouse/Toshiba are in bankruptcy. China will not greenlight eight nukes this year.

only in poor merica

china reactor build go ahead
and so it goes

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #369 on: April 24, 2017, 06:17:43 AM »
Oi. Westinghouse/Toshiba are in bankruptcy. China will not greenlight eight nukes this year.

only in poor merica

china reactor build go ahead

Math challenged?

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #370 on: April 24, 2017, 08:04:36 PM »
"China has become largely self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle, but is making full use of western technology while adapting and improving it"

China doesn't need the western companies, so their bankruptcy is irrelevant, just using their technology and improving it. Seems that we have seen this story before in many areas from East Asian countries (cars, electronics, solar panels, wind turbines ...,).

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx

"China to launch eight new units in 2017"

http://www.neimagazine.com/news/newseight-new-units-to-be-launched-in-2017-5759126

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #371 on: April 24, 2017, 11:17:56 PM »
China's first big jetliner clears final hurdle before flying

"The 168-seat C919 is roughly the same size as Airbus's A320 and Boeing's 737-800. which are the most popular airliners in the world ... China is on track to surpass the U.S. by 2030 as the world's largest commercial aviation market. The country's airlines are buying hundreds of new airliners from Airbus and Boeing each year to grow their fleets. Boeing estimates that the country will need a trillion dollars worth of new airplanes over the next two decades. The company expects that it will need more than 5,100 that are the same size as the C919."

That's a hell of a lot of incremental jet fuel and carbon emissions

http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/23/news/companies/china-comac-c919-airliner/

mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #372 on: April 26, 2017, 01:19:04 AM »
China aims for non-fossil fuels to account for about 20 percent of total energy consumption by 2030

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-idUSKBN17R0QK

and so it goes

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #373 on: April 27, 2017, 06:48:42 PM »
China has a significant problem with wasted solar and wind potential (curtailment).  There seem to be multiple reasons:

1. An inflexible power grid designed for big power stations

2. Excessive quota allocated for coal power plants

3. No formal means of punishing curtailment

4. Ill-equipped cross-province transmission

To its credit, the Chinese government is trying to tackle the problem, last year pledging to reduce wind power curtailment to 5% by 2020 as part of its Five Year Plan.

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/04/19/china-wind-solar-renewable-curtailment-energy-wasted/


Growing pains....

mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #374 on: April 27, 2017, 11:45:17 PM »
Yes, it took Denmark some time to create an organic electrical generation/distribution system.  needs some really responsive hardware and software for syncing voltage/phase/current.

and so it goes

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #375 on: April 28, 2017, 02:30:22 AM »
Take a look at the far left set of bars - ERCOT.  The Texas grid.



Texas got ahead of the game installing wind turbines in the Panhandle and in 2009 curtailed about 17% of the electricity they could have produced with wind.  Then as they beefed up their transmission curtailed wind has dropped will be low 1%.

« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 07:05:28 PM by Bob Wallace »

mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #376 on: April 28, 2017, 04:44:16 AM »
Texas is really an interesting project, because their electrical system is isolated from the entire US system except at a very few points
and so it goes

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #377 on: May 09, 2017, 07:03:29 PM »
China electricity output from photovoltaic plants rose 80 percent in the first quarter after the world’s biggest solar power market increased installed capacity.

Solar power generation rose to 21.4 billion kilowatt-hours in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, the National Energy Administration said Thursday in a statement on its website. China added 7.21 gigawatts of solar power during the period, boosting its total installed capacity to almost 85 gigawatts, the NEA said.

The power-generation increase comes even as more solar plants stand idle because of congested transmission infrastructure. China idled about 2.3 billion kilowatt-hours of solar power in the first quarter, up from 1.9 billion kilowatt-hours a year earlier, according to the NEA data.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-04/china-sees-80-increase-in-solar-power-output-as-capacity-added

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #378 on: May 19, 2017, 08:54:09 PM »
China suspends permits for new coal plants as overcapacity policy bites
The Chinese government has ordered the vast majority of its provinces to stop permitting new coal power projects.

According to a statement from the National Energy Administration (NEA), 28 of China’s 31 mainland provinces do not currently have the right financial or environmental conditions to build new coal capacity.
...
Last year the National Energy Administration kicked off a new scheme to determine whether provinces should build new coal- fired power stations.

The system, created so that the country would stop adding to its overcapacity crisis, assigns each province a colour to signify the viability of its coal pipeline — based on profitability, existing capacity and ‘resource constraints’ such as air pollution and water.

Red means no new coal projects should be permitted. Orange indicates local governments and coal companies should tread carefully. And green says that there is plenty space for new coal power.
...
http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/05/16/china-coal-overcapacity-policy-hits-provinces/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #379 on: May 19, 2017, 09:51:18 PM »
China suspends permits for new coal plants as overcapacity policy bites
The Chinese government has ordered the vast majority of its provinces to stop permitting new coal power projects.

According to a statement from the National Energy Administration (NEA), 28 of China’s 31 mainland provinces do not currently have the right financial or environmental conditions to build new coal capacity.
...
Last year the National Energy Administration kicked off a new scheme to determine whether provinces should build new coal- fired power stations.

The system, created so that the country would stop adding to its overcapacity crisis, assigns each province a colour to signify the viability of its coal pipeline — based on profitability, existing capacity and ‘resource constraints’ such as air pollution and water.

Red means no new coal projects should be permitted. Orange indicates local governments and coal companies should tread carefully. And green says that there is plenty space for new coal power.
...
http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/05/16/china-coal-overcapacity-policy-hits-provinces/


Are the green and orange provinces high users of electrical power, are these regions high growth, or predominantly rural areas?


Thanks
Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #380 on: May 20, 2017, 12:02:40 AM »
Bob, some of those provinces are pretty high up on GDP per capita and growth rates

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_GDP

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #381 on: May 20, 2017, 03:25:54 AM »
Bob, some of those provinces are pretty high up on GDP per capita and growth rates

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_GDP


Thanks
Probably not the most affluent, but certainly not the poorest provinces.
Since we seem to be able to make affordable PV even with the outlandish tariffs placed on Chinese panels, the Chinese it seems should be able to make them the low cost option in most locals.
Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #382 on: May 26, 2017, 06:06:42 PM »
China rapidly building out their electrified high speed rail network and local transit, unlike North America

The problem in North America was that public transit was defunded/destroyed (e.g. by the car companies taking over transit companies and shutting them down) and the road network was massively expanded with government money post-WW2. The resulting "sprawl" urban development was then not consistent with efficient public transit. In China, they have developed a high-speed rail network at an astonishing pace. Linking it with local transit, and having development grow around these transport hubs:

"Less than a decade ago China had yet to connect any of its cities by bullet train. Today, it has 20,000km (12,500 miles) of high-speed rail lines, more than the rest of the world combined. It is planning to lay another 15,000km by 2025 (see map). Just as astonishing is urban growth alongside the tracks. At regular intervals—almost wherever there are stations, even if seemingly in the middle of nowhere—thickets of newly built offices and residential blocks rise from the ground ... China’s planners hope these will be like the railway towns that sprouted (at a slower pace) in America and Britain in the 19th century."

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21714383-and-theres-lot-more-come-it-waste-money-china-has-built-worlds-largest

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-29/china-to-have-30-000-kilometer-high-speed-rail-network-by-2020

There may be some waste / over-building involved, but that it is always the case with such initiatives (the quoted article is from the free-market worshipping Economist!). Compare this to the decades of political pronouncements followed by no real action on such things. Canada is a great case in point, the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal and Vancouver-Edmonton-Calgary triangles have been crying out for high speed rail for decades. Instead, we build airports and pack the roads between these cities.

For local transit Toronto and Montreal provide great contrasts. Montreal had a visionary mayor that built out an integrated public transit system, Toronto did not. The result is obvious to all, especially with the rapid growth of Toronto not being matched by public transit investments.

When we hit the point where rapid CO2 emission reductions will be required, China will be in a much more advantageous position than North America.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2017, 08:10:08 PM by rboyd »

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #383 on: May 26, 2017, 06:16:15 PM »
Two days from Europe to China, for rail freight!

Seems Russia wants to be a serious player in the high speed rail business. If this comes to pass, it could move the transport of high value goods from planes to trains. Greatly reducing related emissions while facilitating ongoing long-distance trade that will help tightly integrate EurAsia. Low carbon long distance freight and people transport.

"Russia's proposed high-speed cargo rail line would be packaged with the much-discussed Moscow-Kazan high-speed passenger train, that will extend for 770 kilometers between the two cities, allowing people to get back and forth in as little as three hours. Construction is set to begin on this line later this year, with $6.5 billion of loans and $1.6 billion of FDI coming from China, while a German consortium led by Siemens, Deutsche Bank, and Deutsche Bahn promising to invest over $2.8 billion into its construction. This new HSR line is tentatively expected to open around 2023.

The broader plan is to extend the Moscow-Kazan high-speed rail line through Kazakhstan and all the way to Beijing, 7,769 kilometers away, feeding into China’s existing 19,000+ kilometer HSR system. This project would tie into China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and will in large part supplant Russia’s iconic, though aging, Trans-Siberian rail line. If this high-speed line is actually built, the total end to end commute time would be more than quartered, dropping to just under 33 hours."

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #384 on: May 26, 2017, 08:16:12 PM »
Let's hold off on being really critical of the US for a couple of  years to see if the Hyperloop works out.  If it doesn't then it's time to get serious about HSR.

At 1,200 kmh the 'loop would make the 7,769 kilometers trip in 6.5 hours rather than 33.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #385 on: May 27, 2017, 01:36:41 AM »
Let's hold off on being really critical of the US for a couple of  years to see if the Hyperloop works out.  If it doesn't then it's time to get serious about HSR.

At 1,200 kmh the 'loop would make the 7,769 kilometers trip in 6.5 hours rather than 33.
Don't want to hold off for too long, Moscow signed on with Hyperloop One back in 2016


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/22/moscow-to-explore-high-speed-hyperloop-commuter-transport-system

Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #386 on: May 27, 2017, 07:31:15 AM »
Its already time to get serious about HSR, as China and many other countries already have. Hyperloop is a theoretical concept that is decades away from large scale rollout, even if it turns out to be a viable technology.

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #387 on: May 27, 2017, 08:06:10 PM »
Its already time to get serious about HSR, as China and many other countries already have. Hyperloop is a theoretical concept that is decades away from large scale rollout, even if it turns out to be a viable technology.

Hyperloop:  Not decades.  Much less expensive than HSR.  More energy-efficient.  And potentially powered by solar.
Dubai's DP World, the world's third largest port operator, has also invested $50 million and is already working with Hyperloop One on a cargo track planned for 2020.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/08/technology/hyperloop-dubai-abu-dhabi/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #388 on: May 28, 2017, 05:37:55 PM »
Its already time to get serious about HSR, as China and many other countries already have. Hyperloop is a theoretical concept that is decades away from large scale rollout, even if it turns out to be a viable technology.

A test of the Hyperloop is months away.  There are multiple Hyperloop projects that are already in the planning stage.

Once we have a proof of concept then some serious economic projections can be made.  Within a year we should have fairly reliable numbers that can be used to address the HSR/'loop issue.

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #389 on: May 29, 2017, 01:02:30 AM »
To go from the "test it at a small scale" phase to transporting large number over  hundreds/thousands of miles between major cities is what will take the time. Getting regulatory and social acceptance for such a thing, even if it works, will not be a fast process. Plus, as with any new technology there will be unexpected issues along the way that need to be worked out.

Time that we don't have. Just look at what China has done in a decade with the old train technology. We are well past the "let's wait a bit longer to see if anything better comes along stage", especially when that becomes a great ally of the denier/delayer types.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #390 on: May 29, 2017, 04:48:41 AM »
To go from the "test it at a small scale" phase to transporting large number over  hundreds/thousands of miles between major cities is what will take the time. Getting regulatory and social acceptance for such a thing, even if it works, will not be a fast process. Plus, as with any new technology there will be unexpected issues along the way that need to be worked out.

Time that we don't have. Just look at what China has done in a decade with the old train technology. We are well past the "let's wait a bit longer to see if anything better comes along stage", especially when that becomes a great ally of the denier/delayer types.

I suppose we could charge ahead and start building HSR and take the chance that it will be obsolete in less than five years.  Even before we get the first stretch completed....

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #391 on: May 29, 2017, 06:35:17 AM »
Just like the Chinese are doing.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #392 on: May 29, 2017, 06:45:52 AM »
I'm sure there were countries who were continuing to extend landlines as cell phones began to take over the market.

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #393 on: May 29, 2017, 06:12:31 PM »
Just because something is used as a metaphor does not make it applicable. Physical infrastructure issues, such as transport and energy, are very different to electronics. They have much more in-built inertial resistant to change.

How long did it take from the first "idea" of a mobile phone to widespread acceptance? The hyperloop was just a clever idea only 4 years ago, and is still backed by some very small outfits. At the very start of the S curve.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #394 on: May 29, 2017, 07:08:59 PM »
Assuming that HL is the answer, and that it blows HSR out of the water, it's going to take decades to know this, and longer for the buildout.


How far ahead will China be because of their use of HSR by this point? Won't the additional money saved and earned by their HSR infrastructure place them in the financial driver's seat when the time finally comes for the world to change to HL? A 30+yr head start, even if that start is later replaced by better technology, may give them an untouchable lead.


IIRC when Los Angeles opted for freeways over rail they built I10 with an extra wide median to accommodate a light rail/trolley line, should that ever prove a better fit. I believe that if HL begins to look viable, the Chinese will build their HSR systems in a manner to facilitate a later transition to the newer technology.


The same poles that provide for land lines also serve as power poles, bringing the grid as well as the phone to your doorstep. Isn't it possible that the same infrastructure that today serves China's HSR might in the future serve the needs of their HL? Stations, roads and parking to accommodate travelers, right of way, possibly even tunnels built for HSR might serve dual purpose, then exclusive use as HL infrastructure.


Track laid 100 years ago to carry slow steam driven trains is being used today by diesel and electrified rail. I doubt that in 100 years China will not have found a use for the high speed rail they are building today.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #395 on: May 29, 2017, 07:33:30 PM »
Even with their major network of High Speed Rail, China sees advantages in the Hyperloop:

Promoting Shanghai for first Hyperloop
China, whose vast railway network is known worldwide for its speed and efficiency, is one focus of the competition. A student team at New York University Shanghai is designing a plan for a Hyperloop system between Shanghai and Hangzhou. “Giving the economic and political conditions, this is the best site for the first Hyperloop,” said Bradford Sunderland, a sophomore student majoring in economics and leader of the team.

Hyperloop proposes to move passengers and goods at more than 750 miles an hour, three times the speed of the current high-speed rail in China.

According to the team, Hyperloop would reduce the present 45-minute trip by high-speed rail between Shanghai and Hangzhou to just 15 minutes....
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sunday/Promoting-Shanghai-for-first-Hyperloop/shdaily.shtml

China is joining the Hyperloop race
China’s scientists are looking to ­develop military applications for experimental technology behind an ultra high-speed “vacuum” transport system, according to a researcher involved in one of the projects.

The technology under development would involve loading passengers into pods and projecting them through vacuum tubes at high speeds.

The researcher said some of the work being done in China and the US was funded by the military as the technology might have ­defence ­applications....
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-joining-the-hyperloop-race-2016-5
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #396 on: May 29, 2017, 08:06:55 PM »
China currently has 2 HSR's capable of 302 MPH. The speeds will increase, but not to HL projected speeds. Regenerative braking at 95% is impressive!


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Railways_CRH380A


Terry
Moving people at these speeds is impressive, but when the New Silk Route is complete & freight begins moving at these speeds it changes the way the world works. No more "Slow boats to China"  :)


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #397 on: May 29, 2017, 09:03:43 PM »
Assuming that HL is the answer, and that it blows HSR out of the water, it's going to take decades to know this, and longer for the buildout.


How far ahead will China be because of their use of HSR by this point? Won't the additional money saved and earned by their HSR infrastructure place them in the financial driver's seat when the time finally comes for the world to change to HL? A 30+yr head start, even if that start is later replaced by better technology, may give them an untouchable lead.


IIRC when Los Angeles opted for freeways over rail they built I10 with an extra wide median to accommodate a light rail/trolley line, should that ever prove a better fit. I believe that if HL begins to look viable, the Chinese will build their HSR systems in a manner to facilitate a later transition to the newer technology.


The same poles that provide for land lines also serve as power poles, bringing the grid as well as the phone to your doorstep. Isn't it possible that the same infrastructure that today serves China's HSR might in the future serve the needs of their HL? Stations, roads and parking to accommodate travelers, right of way, possibly even tunnels built for HSR might serve dual purpose, then exclusive use as HL infrastructure.


Track laid 100 years ago to carry slow steam driven trains is being used today by diesel and electrified rail. I doubt that in 100 years China will not have found a use for the high speed rail they are building today.


Terry

Within a few months we should know whether it is possible to move a pod very rapidly through a partially evacuated tube at speeds in excess of those flown by passenger jets.

Built out time for a stretch of Hyperloop should be less than a stretch of high speed rail over the same route.  The 'loop "flies" over obstacles such as roads and streams, it's already at least 14' in the air.  There's not need to acquire large stretches of railbed and fenced zones on each side.

HSR is not an acceptable substitute for flying over long distances.  The 'loop promises to be faster than flying.

It's about 2,300 miles from LA to NYC.  HSR at 300 miles per hour would take eight hours.  The 'loop at  760 MPH would take three hours.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #398 on: May 29, 2017, 09:26:44 PM »
So---
Within a few months we'll know whether the US and Canada should be starting on either HL or HSR. Doing nothing is certainly not an option, correct?
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #399 on: May 29, 2017, 09:39:31 PM »
We have to get off fossil fuels.  Both HSR and the 'loop run on electricity.

We should know within a year whether the 'loop works and how much it would cost compared to HSR.

If you look at all the engineers and schools of engineering that are working on the 'loop it makes one suspect the 'loop is going to work.  Scale models have already been successfully tested. A full scale propulsion system has been tested.  It even looks like Musk has a way to create tunnels for the 'loop which will be much faster to install and cheaper to build than what we'd need for HSR.

I think we're likely to see an operational stretch of tube within a couple of years.  Initial work is now being done for a tube between Dubai and Abu Dhabi.  Routing will not be a problem for dictatorial governments installing infrastructure over (largely) unoccupied desert.