I did a bit of tinkering with the NSDIC extent data from 1979 to 2014.
I looked at the difference in extent between 1/30 and the Max for each year.
Here's what I got.
The average increase in extent from this date to max is 935,000 KM2
The standard deviation of extent increase is 232,000 KM2
The various inflections are..
+2 SD 1,300,000
+1 SD 1,168,000
Avg 935,000
-1SD 703,000
-2SD 471,000
(Edit - I need to re-work my numbers).
We have a high probability of a max between 13.5 and 14 million KM2.
If we have a bad melt year = 11.5 million KM2 as in 2012 (iirc...) - we could end up with a minimum around 2.5 million KM2.
If we fall on the low side on max and maximum melt on the minimum, it gets quite a bit worse.
Max of about 13.7 million.
Melt of 11.7 million (equivalent to 2012)
Final 2016 minimum of ~2.0 million KM2 extent.
Those numbers are currently in play.
You heard it here first.
Not our sub 1,000,000 "ice free" arctic, but hopefully (if it happens) a whack off the side of the heads of our leaders sufficient that they start paying attention.